How can global climate change influence the geographic distribution of the eucalyptus yellow beetle? Modeling and prediction for Brazil / Como mudanças climáticas globais podem influenciar na distribuição geográfica do besouro amarelo do eucalipto? Modelagem e predição para o Brasil

Popularly known as the yellow eucalyptus beetle, Costalimaita ferruginea (Fabricius, 1801) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), in the adult phase it feeds on the leaves of the myrtaceae, leaving them laced, a fact that impairs the productivity of plantations. Therefore, this work aims to model the potential distribution of the beetle in climate change scenarios for Brazil. The biotic data were collected through a review of the literature and entomological collections, totaling 88 georeferenced points of occurrence of the insect in the country. The abiotic data (19 biovariables, precipitation and minimum, average and maximum temperature) in the Wordcllim database, represent the periods: current (1970-2000), middle (2041-2060), and final (2061-2080) of the century, with representation in two projections of climatic anomalies (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). To determine the most important variables for the models, the Jackknife test was performed in the Maxent software, which resulted in five biovariables, namely: annual precipitation (35.2%), temperature seasonality (15.2%), annual temperature variation (13.7%), seasonality of precipitation (8.7%) and an average temperature of the coldest quarter (7.4%). Subsequently, the Openmodeller software was used and five algorithms were tested to determine which model represents the prediction of areas of suitability for the occurrence of the insect. The algorithm that best represented the appropriate areas was the Envelope Score (AUC = 0.808), corroborating the occurrence data collected. The prediction shows that the Pampa biome, in the RCP8.5 scenario for the period between 2061-2080, will become fully suitable for the occurrence of this defoliator beetle, unlike the Amazon, which presents retraction in areas suitable for the occurrence of the beetle for the same period. In this sense, commercial eucalyptus plantations implemented in climatologically suitable areas for the occurrence of this insect must be monitored periodically.

Conhecido popularmente como, o besouro-amarelo do eucalipto, Costalimaita ferrugínea (Fabricius, 1801) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), na fase adulta alimenta-se das folhas da mirtácea deixando-as rendilhadas, fato este que prejudica a produtividade dos plantios. Sendo assim, este trabalho tem como objetivo modelar a distribuição potencial do besouro em cenários de mudanças climáticas para o Brasil. Os dados bióticos foram levantados através de revisão de literatura e de coleções entomológicas, totalizando 88 pontos georreferenciados de ocorrência do inseto no país. Os dados abióticos (19 biovariáveis, precipitação e temperatura mínima, média e máxima) no banco de dados Wordlclim, representando os períodos: atual (1970-2000), meio (2041-2060) e final (2061-2080) do século, com representação em duas projeções de anomalias climáticas (RCP 4.5 e RCP 8.5). De modo a determinar as variáveis mais importantes para os modelos, foi realizado o teste Jackknife no software Maxent, o qual resultou em cinco biovariáveis, sendo elas: precipitação anual (35.2%), sazonalidade da temperatura (15.2%), variação anual de temperatura (13.7%), sazonalidade de precipitação (8.7%) e temperatura média do trimestre mais frio (7.4%). Posteriormente, utilizou-se o software Openmodeller e testados cinco algoritmos, para determinar qual modelo representa a predição de áreas de adequabilidade para a ocorrência do inseto. O algoritmo que melhor representou as áreas adequadas foi o Envelope Score (AUC = 0.808), corroborando com os dados de ocorrência levantados. A predição mostra que o bioma Pampa, no cenário RCP8.5 para o período entre 2061-2080 se tornará totalmente adequado à ocorrência desse besouro desfolhador, ao contrário da Amazônia, que apresenta retração nas áreas adequadas à ocorrência do besouro para o mesmo período. Nesse sentido, plantios comerciais de eucalipto implementados em áreas climatologicamente adequadas à ocorrência desse inseto devem ser monitoradas periodicamente.

Phyllostomid bats distribution and richness gradient in a subtropical Brazilian state

Abstract Phyllostomid bats (Chiroptera: Phyllostomidae) are key elements for the maintenance of New World forests, but little information on their distribution is available in some regions of Brazil. Here we use occurrence records and bioclimatic variables to model the distribution of phyllostomid bats in Santa Catarina, a subtropical Brazilian state. Estimates of geographic variation in species richness were then obtained by stacking the generated maps. Lastly, we tested how associated species richness is to ecoregions and Protected Areas. Our results suggest that the phyllostomid bats species richness is closely linked to the regions climate gradient. Most species are restricted to the Serra do Mar ecoregion, where the temperature is high and varies less throughout the year. In contrast, the colder areas seem to house extremely simple communities, composed of a subset of the species present in the warmer areas. We found significant evidence that Protected Areas in Santa Catarina play an important role in the conservation of species, although there are still several places where species richness is high, but no Protected Area is available. The creation of new Protected Areas in these places can boost the species conservation, and, consequently, the ecological services provided by phyllostomid bats.

Phyllostomid bats distribution and richness gradient in a subtropical Brazilian state

Abstract Phyllostomid bats (Chiroptera: Phyllostomidae) are key elements for the maintenance of New World forests, but little information on their distribution is available in some regions of Brazil. Here we use occurrence records and bioclimatic variables to model the distribution of phyllostomid bats in Santa Catarina, a subtropical Brazilian state. Estimates of geographic variation in species richness were then obtained by stacking the generated maps. Lastly, we tested how associated species richness is to ecoregions and Protected Areas. Our results suggest that the phyllostomid bats species richness is closely linked to the region's climate gradient. Most species are restricted to the Serra do Mar ecoregion, where the temperature is high and varies less throughout the year. In contrast, the colder areas seem to house extremely simple communities, composed of a subset of the species present in the warmer areas. We found significant evidence that Protected Areas in Santa Catarina play an important role in the conservation of species, although there are still several places where species richness is high, but no Protected Area is available. The creation of new Protected Areas in these places can boost the species conservation, and, consequently, the ecological services provided by phyllostomid bats.

Phyllostomid bats distribution and richness gradient in a subtropical Brazilian state

Phyllostomid bats (Chiroptera: Phyllostomidae) are key elements for the maintenance of New World forests, but little information on their distribution is available in some regions of Brazil. Here we use occurrence records and bioclimatic variables to model the distribution of phyllostomid bats in Santa Catarina, a subtropical Brazilian state. Estimates of geographic variation in species richness were then obtained by stacking the generated maps. Lastly, we tested how associated species richness is to ecoregions and Protected Areas. Our results suggest that the phyllostomid bats species richness is closely linked to the regions climate gradient. Most species are restricted to the Serra do Mar ecoregion, where the temperature is high and varies less throughout the year. In contrast, the colder areas seem to house extremely simple communities, composed of a subset of the species present in the warmer areas. We found significant evidence that Protected Areas in Santa Catarina play an important role in the conservation of species, although there are still several places where species richness is high, but no Protected Area is available. The creation of new Protected Areas in these places can boost the species conservation, and, consequently, the ecological services provided by phyllostomid bats.(AU)

Mapping the habitat suitability of Andira humilis Mart. ex Benth. (Fabaceae) as a means to detect its associated galling species in Brazil

Host plant species have very specific interconnection with galling species. Here, we estimate the potential distribution of the host plant species Andira humilis Mart. ex Benth. (Fabaceae) to consequently locate the potential distribution ranges of its galling species Lopesia andirae Garcia, Lima, Calado, and Guimarães (2017) based on ecological requirements. The ecological niche model was built using Maxent v.3.4.1k, an algorithm that estimates species’ distributions. We found suitable habitats for L. andirae encompassing areas of the Cerrado, Caatinga and Atlantic Forest. Annual mean temperature (70.2%) and temperature annual range (13.9%) were the most critical factors shaping A. humilis and necessarily L. andirae. Our results can guide taxonomists and ecologists regarding the delineation of sampling areas as well as conservation strategies for this ecological interaction.

Mapping the habitat suitability of Andira humilis Mart. ex Benth. (Fabaceae) as a means to detect its associated galling species in Brazil

Host plant species have very specific interconnection with galling species. Here, we estimate the potential distribution of the host plant species Andira humilis Mart. ex Benth. (Fabaceae) to consequently locate the potential distribution ranges of its galling species Lopesia andirae Garcia, Lima, Calado, and Guimarães (2017) based on ecological requirements. The ecological niche model was built using Maxent v.3.4.1k, an algorithm that estimates species distributions. We found suitable habitats for L. andirae encompassing areas of the Cerrado, Caatinga and Atlantic Forest. Annual mean temperature (70.2%) and temperature annual range (13.9%) were the most critical factors shaping A. humilis and necessarily L. andirae. Our results can guide taxonomists and ecologists regarding the delineation of sampling areas as well as conservation strategies for this ecological interaction.(AU)

Distribution, threats and conservation of the White-collared Kite (Leptodon forbesi, Accipitridae), the most threatened raptor in the Neotropics

The White-collared Kite (Leptodon forbesi) is an endemic and threatened raptor of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Here we present the known records of the species, describe the vegetation types where it was found and show Ecological Niche Models generated using Maxent algorithm. Most of the presence data were recorded in open ombrophilous forest and seasonal semideciduous forest in the states of Alagoas and Pernambuco. Maxent model had a good performance (AUC = 0.982 ± 0.004 SD), showing higher suitability for the species from Paraíba to Alagoas states. Maxent average model revealed a distribution range of 20,344 km² and an area of occupancy of 1,636.89 km². The most suitable areas for the species are those near watercourses and streams. We suggest the creation of protected areas, including private ones, and possible restoration actions to connect the most suitable forest fragments, along with the captive breeding, as the most appropriate strategies for the conservation of the White-collared Kite.

Distribution, threats and conservation of the White-collared Kite (Leptodon forbesi, Accipitridae), the most threatened raptor in the Neotropics

The White-collared Kite (Leptodon forbesi) is an endemic and threatened raptor of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Here we present the known records of the species, describe the vegetation types where it was found and show Ecological Niche Models generated using Maxent algorithm. Most of the presence data were recorded in open ombrophilous forest and seasonal semideciduous forest in the states of Alagoas and Pernambuco. Maxent model had a good performance (AUC = 0.982 ± 0.004 SD), showing higher suitability for the species from Paraíba to Alagoas states. Maxent average model revealed a distribution range of 20,344 km² and an area of occupancy of 1,636.89 km². The most suitable areas for the species are those near watercourses and streams. We suggest the creation of protected areas, including private ones, and possible restoration actions to connect the most suitable forest fragments, along with the captive breeding, as the most appropriate strategies for the conservation of the White-collared Kite.(AU)

Potential distribution and conservation of the Colobosauroides carvalhoi Soares and Caramaschi, 1998: a rare and endemic lizard of Northeast Brazil / Distribuição potencial e conservação de Colobosauroides carvalhoi Soares and Caramaschi, 1998: um lagarto raro e endêmico do nordeste do Brasil

Ecological niche modeling has contributed to the investigation of the geographical distribution and conservation of rare or little recorded species. Therefore, we studied the known and potential distributions of Colobosauroides carvalhoi Soares and Caramaschi 1998 and discuss the implications for its conservation. Data were obtained by manual collections made in quarterly samplings in three different regions, considering the regions with occurrence records and surrounding areas. The known distribution was determined by occurrence records and literature data, and potential distribution was estimated with an ecological niche model by the MaxEnt algorithm. Twenty-five specimens were collected exclusively in forest formations of Caatinga and Caatinga-Cerrado. Our data corroborated the relative rarity of C. carvalhoi and reflected the biogeographical history of the group, where it is restricted to forest formations with milder environmental conditions. The occurrence records indicated new records of C. carvalhoi, but the known distribution value is compatible with a restricted distribution. The ecological niche model estimated few areas with environmental suitability for the species and corroborated the restricted and relict distribution patterns. Finally, the known and potential distribution values were compatible with criteria for threatened species. These results suggest a worrisome scenario for C. carvalhoi conservation. However, the limited data about the species population do not allow the proper definition of its conservation status. Therefore, we suggest using potential distribution values with alternative criteria for redefining the conservation status of C. carvalhoi and the development of new studies that support a better assessment of its conservation aspects.(AU)

A modelagem ecológica de nicho vem contribuindo para investigar a distribuição geográfica e conservação de espécies raras ou com poucos registros de ocorrência. Neste sentido, investigou-se a distribuição conhecida e potencial da espécie Colobosauroides carvalhoi Soares & Caramaschi, 1998, discutindo as implicações para a conservação da espécie. Os dados foram coletados por meio de coletas manuais realizadas em amostragens trimestrais realizadas em três regiões distintas, considerando as regiões com registros de ocorrência conhecidos e áreas adjacentes. A distribuição conhecida foi determinada a partir dos novos registros de ocorrência e dados da literatura e a distribuição potencial estimada por meio de um modelo ecológico de nicho com uso do algoritmo MaxEnt. Vinte e cinco exemplares da espécie C. carvalhoi foram coletados exclusivamente em formações arbóreas da Caatinga e áreas de interface entre a Caatinga e o Cerrado. Estes resultados corroboram a relativa raridade da espécie e refletem a história biogeográfica do grupo, relacionada a ambientes florestados e que apresentam condições ambientais mais amenas. Os registros de ocorrência de C. carvalhoi indicam novos registros, entretanto, o valor de distribuição conhecida foi compatível com valores de distribuição restrita. O modelo ecológico de nicho estimou poucas áreas adequadas à ocorrência da espécie, corroborando um padrão de distribuição restrita e relictual. Por fim, os valores de distribuição conhecida e potencial estimados são compatíveis com valores definidos para espécies ameaçadas. Estes resultados sugerem um cenário preocupante para a conservação de C. carvalhoi. Entretanto, a atual limitação de dados populacionais dificulta uma adequada avaliação de seu status de conservação. Portanto, sugerimos o uso dos valores de distribuição potencial como critério alternativo para avaliar seu status de conservação até que novos estudos possam subsidiar uma melhor avaliação da conservação da espécie.(AU)

Análisis geográfico y conservación del zorro andino Lycalopex culpaeus (Mammalia, Canidae) en Colombia

RESUMEN El zorro andino Lycalopex culpaeus (Molina, 1782) ha sido incluido en la categoría de amenaza Vulnerable en Colombia, sin embargo, no se han realizado estudios que validen la inclusión de la especie en dicha categoría a nivel nacional. En el presente trabajo se delimitó el área de distribución potencial (DP) de la especie en Colombia y se discute su categoría de amenaza. Para ello se usó modelamiento de nicho ecológico en el algoritmo de Máxima Entropía (Maxent). Con procesamiento en Sistemas de Información Geográfico resaltamos las áreas donde la especie se encuentra protegida. Los resultados muestran que el zorro andino se podría encontrar desde los departamentos de Nariño hasta el Huila (8,877 km2), y el 19.6% (1,742 km2) del área de distribución potencial de la especie se encuentra dentro del Sistema Nacional de Áreas Protegidas de Colombia. A pesar, que la especie es considerada Vulnerable en Colombia, se encontró que no cumple con los criterios para su asignación en dicha categoría debido a la ausencia de evidencias tangibles que sustenten una reducción poblacional, disminución del área de ocupación o la calidad del hábitat en la década previa a la asignación de la categoría de amenaza. Teniendo en cuenta los registros verificables e información sobre el área de distribución de la especie en Colombia, se propone una reasignación de la categoría de amenaza nacional a Casi Amenazada (NT).

Abstract The Andean fox Lycalopex culpaeus (Molina, 1782) has been included in the category of threat Vulnerable in Colombia, however, there are not available studies that support at the national level the inclusion of this species in that category. In this work, we delimited the distribution area and we discuss the category of threat of the species in Colombia. For this, we used a niche modelling approach using the Maximun Entropy (Maxent) algorithm. Using Geographical Information Systems, we highlighted areas in which the species is protected. Our results show that the Andean fox can be found potentially from Nariño until Huila departments (8,877 km2), and the National System of Protected Areas in Colombia protected 1,742 km2 (19.6%) of the potential distribution of the species. Despite the species is considered Vulnerable in Colombia, we found that it does not meet the criteria for allocation in that category, due to the absence of tangible evidence that supported a population decline, decreased in area of occupancy, or habitat quality in the decade prior to the risk assessment. Considering the validated records and information on the distribution area of the species in Colombia, we suggest a re-assignation of the category to the category Near Threatened (NT).

Análisis geográfico y conservación del zorro andino Lycalopex culpaeus (Mammalia, Canidae) en Colombia / Geographical analysis and conservation of the Andean fox Lycalopex culpaeus (Mammalia, Canidae) in Colombia

El zorro andino Lycalopex culpaeus (Molina, 1782) ha sido incluido en la categoría de amenaza Vulnerable en Colombia, sin embargo, no se han realizado estudios que validen la inclusión de la especie en dicha categoría a nivel nacional. En el presente trabajo se delimitó el área de distribución potencial (DP) de la especie en Colombia y se discute su categoría de amenaza. Para ello se usó modelamiento de nicho ecológico en el algoritmo de Máxima Entropía (Maxent). Con procesamiento en Sistemas de Información Geográfico resaltamos las áreas donde la especie se encuentra protegida. Los resultados muestran que el zorro andino se podría encontrar desde los departamentos de Nariño hasta el Huila (8,877 km2), y el 19.6% (1,742 km2) del área de distribución potencial de la especie se encuentra dentro del Sistema Nacional de Áreas Protegidas de Colombia. A pesar, que la especie es considerada Vulnerable en Colombia, se encontró que no cumple con los criterios para su asignación en dicha categoría debido a la ausencia de evidencias tangibles que sustenten una reducción poblacional, disminución del área de ocupación o la calidad del hábitat en la década previa a la asignación de la categoría de amenaza. Teniendo en cuenta los registros verificables e información sobre el área de distribución de la especie en Colombia, se propone una reasignación de la categoría de amenaza nacional a Casi Amenazada (NT).(AU)

The Andean fox Lycalopex culpaeus (Molina, 1782) has been included in the category of threat Vulnerable in Colombia, however, there are not available studies that support at the national level the inclusion of this species in that category. In this work, we delimited the distribution area and we discuss the category of threat of the species in Colombia. For this, we used a niche modelling approach using the Maximun Entropy (Maxent) algorithm. Using Geographical Information Systems, we highlighted areas in which the species is protected. Our results show that the Andean fox can be found potentially from Nariño until Huila departments (8,877 km2), and the National System of Protected Areas in Colombia protected 1,742 km2 (19.6%) of the potential distribution of the species. Despite the species is considered Vulnerable in Colombia, we found that it does not meet the criteria for allocation in that category, due to the absence of tangible evidence that supported a population decline, decreased in area of occupancy, or habitat quality in the decade prior to the risk assessment. Considering the validated records and information on the distribution area of the species in Colombia, we suggest a re-assignation of the category to the category Near Threatened (NT).(AU)

Análisis geográfico y conservación del zorro andino Lycalopex culpaeus (Mammalia, Canidae) en Colombia / Geographical analysis and conservation of the Andean fox Lycalopex culpaeus (Mammalia, Canidae) in Colombia

El zorro andino Lycalopex culpaeus (Molina, 1782) ha sido incluido en la categoría de amenaza Vulnerable en Colombia, sin embargo, no se han realizado estudios que validen la inclusión de la especie en dicha categoría a nivel nacional. En el presente trabajo se delimitó el área de distribución potencial (DP) de la especie en Colombia y se discute su categoría de amenaza. Para ello se usó modelamiento de nicho ecológico en el algoritmo de Máxima Entropía (Maxent). Con procesamiento en Sistemas de Información Geográfico resaltamos las áreas donde la especie se encuentra protegida. Los resultados muestran que el zorro andino se podría encontrar desde los departamentos de Nariño hasta el Huila (8,877 km2), y el 19.6% (1,742 km2) del área de distribución potencial de la especie se encuentra dentro del Sistema Nacional de Áreas Protegidas de Colombia. A pesar, que la especie es considerada Vulnerable en Colombia, se encontró que no cumple con los criterios para su asignación en dicha categoría debido a la ausencia de evidencias tangibles que sustenten una reducción poblacional, disminución del área de ocupación o la calidad del hábitat en la década previa a la asignación de la categoría de amenaza. Teniendo en cuenta los registros verificables e información sobre el área de distribución de la especie en Colombia, se propone una reasignación de la categoría de amenaza nacional a Casi Amenazada (NT).

The Andean fox Lycalopex culpaeus (Molina, 1782) has been included in the category of threat Vulnerable in Colombia, however, there are not available studies that support at the national level the inclusion of this species in that category. In this work, we delimited the distribution area and we discuss the category of threat of the species in Colombia. For this, we used a niche modelling approach using the Maximun Entropy (Maxent) algorithm. Using Geographical Information Systems, we highlighted areas in which the species is protected. Our results show that the Andean fox can be found potentially from Nariño until Huila departments (8,877 km2), and the National System of Protected Areas in Colombia protected 1,742 km2 (19.6%) of the potential distribution of the species. Despite the species is considered Vulnerable in Colombia, we found that it does not meet the criteria for allocation in that category, due to the absence of tangible evidence that supported a population decline, decreased in area of occupancy, or habitat quality in the decade prior to the risk assessment. Considering the validated records and information on the distribution area of the species in Colombia, we suggest a re-assignation of the category to the category Near Threatened (NT).

Predicting the distribution of forest tree species using topographic variables and vegetation index in eastern Acre, Brazil / Predição da distribuição de espécies florestais usando variáveis topográficas e de índice de vegetação no leste do Acre, Brasil

Species distribution modeling has relevant implications for the studies of biodiversity, decision making about conservation and knowledge about ecological requirements of the species. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the use of forest inventories can improve the estimation of occurrence probability, identify the limits of the potential distribution and habitat preference of a group of timber tree species. The environmental predictor variables were: elevation, slope, aspect, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and height above the nearest drainage (HAND). To estimate the distribution of species we used the maximum entropy method (Maxent). In comparison with a random distribution, using topographic variables and vegetation index as features, the Maxent method predicted with an average accuracy of 86% the geographical distribution of studied species. The altitude and NDVI were the most important variables. There were limitations to the interpolation of the models for non-sampled locations and that are outside of the elevation gradient associated with the occurrence data in approximately 7% of the basin area. Ceiba pentandra (samaúma), Castilla ulei (caucho) and Hura crepitans (assacu) is more likely to occur in nearby water course areas. Clarisia racemosa (guariúba), Amburana acreana (cerejeira), Aspidosperma macrocarpon (pereiro), Apuleia leiocarpa (cumaru cetim), Aspidosperma parvifolium (amarelão) and Astronium lecointei (aroeira) can also occur in upland forest and well drained soils. This modeling approach has potential for application on other tropical species still less studied, especially those that are under pressure from logging.

A modelagem de distribuição de espécie tem implicações fundamentais para o estudo da biodiversidade, tomada de decisão em conservação e para a compreensão dos requerimentos ecológicos das espécies. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar se a utilização de inventários florestais pode melhorar a estimativa de probabilidade de ocorrência, identificar os limites da distribuição potencial e preferência de habitat de um grupo de espécies madeireiras. As variáveis ambientais preditoras foram: altitude, declividade, exposição, índice de vegetação por diferença normalizada (NDVI) e distância vertical à drenagem mais próxima (HAND). Para estimar a distribuição das espécies foi utilizado o método de máxima entropia (Maxent). Em comparação com uma distribuição aleatória, utilizando variáveis topográficas e de índice de vegetação, o método Maxent alcançou uma acurácia de 86%, em média, na distribuição geográfica predita das espécies estudadas. A altitude e o NDVI foram as variáveis mais importantes. Houve limitações na interpolação dos modelos para locais não amostrados e que estão fora do gradiente de altitude associado aos dados de ocorrência, em aproximadamente 7% da área da bacia. Ceiba pentandra (samaúma), Castilla ulei (caucho) e Hura crepitans (assacu) tem maior probabilidade de ocorrência em áreas próximas aos cursos de água. Clarisia racemosa (guariúba), Amburana acreana (cerejeira), Aspidosperma macrocarpon (pereiro), Apuleia leiocarpa (cumaru cetim), Aspidosperma parvifolium (amarelão) e Astronium lecointei (aroeira) podem ocorrer também em floresta de terra firme e solos bem drenados. Essa abordagem de modelagem tem potencial de aplicação para outras espécies tropicais ainda pouco estudadas, sobretudo aquelas que estão sobre pressão da atividade madeireira.

Predicting the distribution of forest tree species using topographic variables and vegetation index in eastern Acre, Brazil / Predição da distribuição de espécies florestais usando variáveis topográficas e de índice de vegetação no leste do Acre, Brasil

Species distribution modeling has relevant implications for the studies of biodiversity, decision making about conservation and knowledge about ecological requirements of the species. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the use of forest inventories can improve the estimation of occurrence probability, identify the limits of the potential distribution and habitat preference of a group of timber tree species. The environmental predictor variables were: elevation, slope, aspect, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and height above the nearest drainage (HAND). To estimate the distribution of species we used the maximum entropy method (Maxent). In comparison with a random distribution, using topographic variables and vegetation index as features, the Maxent method predicted with an average accuracy of 86% the geographical distribution of studied species. The altitude and NDVI were the most important variables. There were limitations to the interpolation of the models for non-sampled locations and that are outside of the elevation gradient associated with the occurrence data in approximately 7% of the basin area. Ceiba pentandra (samaúma), Castilla ulei (caucho) and Hura crepitans (assacu) is more likely to occur in nearby water course areas. Clarisia racemosa (guariúba), Amburana acreana (cerejeira), Aspidosperma macrocarpon (pereiro), Apuleia leiocarpa (cumaru cetim), Aspidosperma parvifolium (amarelão) and Astronium lecointei (aroeira) can also occur in upland forest and well drained soils. This modeling approach has potential for application on other tropical species still less studied, especially those that are under pressure from logging.(AU)

A modelagem de distribuição de espécie tem implicações fundamentais para o estudo da biodiversidade, tomada de decisão em conservação e para a compreensão dos requerimentos ecológicos das espécies. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar se a utilização de inventários florestais pode melhorar a estimativa de probabilidade de ocorrência, identificar os limites da distribuição potencial e preferência de habitat de um grupo de espécies madeireiras. As variáveis ambientais preditoras foram: altitude, declividade, exposição, índice de vegetação por diferença normalizada (NDVI) e distância vertical à drenagem mais próxima (HAND). Para estimar a distribuição das espécies foi utilizado o método de máxima entropia (Maxent). Em comparação com uma distribuição aleatória, utilizando variáveis topográficas e de índice de vegetação, o método Maxent alcançou uma acurácia de 86%, em média, na distribuição geográfica predita das espécies estudadas. A altitude e o NDVI foram as variáveis mais importantes. Houve limitações na interpolação dos modelos para locais não amostrados e que estão fora do gradiente de altitude associado aos dados de ocorrência, em aproximadamente 7% da área da bacia. Ceiba pentandra (samaúma), Castilla ulei (caucho) e Hura crepitans (assacu) tem maior probabilidade de ocorrência em áreas próximas aos cursos de água. Clarisia racemosa (guariúba), Amburana acreana (cerejeira), Aspidosperma macrocarpon (pereiro), Apuleia leiocarpa (cumaru cetim), Aspidosperma parvifolium (amarelão) e Astronium lecointei (aroeira) podem ocorrer também em floresta de terra firme e solos bem drenados. Essa abordagem de modelagem tem potencial de aplicação para outras espécies tropicais ainda pouco estudadas, sobretudo aquelas que estão sobre pressão da atividade madeireira.(AU)

More on the Mesopotamian-Yungas disjunction in subtropical and temperate Argentina: bioclimatic distribution models of the harvestman Discocyrtus dilatatus (Opiliones: Gonyleptidae)

In this paper, the potential distribution of the Mesopotamian harvestman Discocyrtus dilatatus Sørensen, 1884 is modeled, and the species' bioclimatic profile is described. Models were built with the presence-only methods Maxent and Bioclim, using 85 unique records (of which 49 are new) and 11 non-correlated bioclimatic variables as predictors. Both Maxent and Bioclim supported the Mesopotamian-Yungas disjunct pattern observed in D. dilatatus, and confirmed the hypothesis that the sub-xeric Dry Chaco is an effective barrier for the two portions of the range. Similarly to results of previous studies on other Mesopotamian harvestmen, temperature variables proved more relevant than precipitation variables in the final models. In the combined overall score obtained with Maxent, bc4-temperature seasonality ranked as the most relevant, and only one precipitation variable (bc18-precipitation of warmest quarter, in second place) ranked among the top five. In the Most Limiting Factor analysis, which identifies the relevant variables in a local scale, temperature variables were again more determining than precipitation variables in most of the range. One single variable, bc5-maximal temperature of warmest month, proved critical near the boundaries of the modeled range and the Dry Chaco, suggesting that extremely high temperatures (and not the supposed aridity) are responsible for the 450 km distribution gap.

More on the Mesopotamian-Yungas disjunction in subtropical and temperate Argentina: bioclimatic distribution models of the harvestman Discocyrtus dilatatus (Opiliones: Gonyleptidae)

In this paper, the potential distribution of the Mesopotamian harvestman Discocyrtus dilatatus Sørensen, 1884 is modeled, and the species' bioclimatic profile is described. Models were built with the presence-only methods Maxent and Bioclim, using 85 unique records (of which 49 are new) and 11 non-correlated bioclimatic variables as predictors. Both Maxent and Bioclim supported the Mesopotamian-Yungas disjunct pattern observed in D. dilatatus, and confirmed the hypothesis that the sub-xeric Dry Chaco is an effective barrier for the two portions of the range. Similarly to results of previous studies on other Mesopotamian harvestmen, temperature variables proved more relevant than precipitation variables in the final models. In the combined overall score obtained with Maxent, bc4-temperature seasonality ranked as the most relevant, and only one precipitation variable (bc18-precipitation of warmest quarter, in second place) ranked among the top five. In the Most Limiting Factor analysis, which identifies the relevant variables in a local scale, temperature variables were again more determining than precipitation variables in most of the range. One single variable, bc5-maximal temperature of warmest month, proved critical near the boundaries of the modeled range and the Dry Chaco, suggesting that extremely high temperatures (and not the supposed aridity) are responsible for the 450 km distribution gap.(AU)

Climate change effects on the geographic distribution of specialist tree species of the Brazilian tropical dry forests / Efeitos das mudanças climáticas sobre a distribuição geográfica de espécies arbóreas especialistas de florestas secas tropicais brasileiras

The aim of this study was to evaluate the ecological niche models (ENMs) for three specialist trees (Anadenantheracolubrina, Aspidosperma pyrifolium and Myracrodruon urundeuva) in seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) in Brazil, considering present and future pessimist scenarios (2080) of climate change. These three species exhibit typical deciduousness and are widely distributed by SDTF in South America, being important in studies of the historical and evolutionary processes experienced by this ecosystem. The modeling of the potential geographic distribution of species was done by the method of maximum entropy (Maxent).We verified a general expansion of suitable areas for occurrence of the three species in future (c.a., 18%), although there was reduction of areas with high environmental suitability in Caatinga region. Precipitation of wettest quarter and temperature seasonality were the predictor variables that most contributed to our models. Climatic changes can provide more severe and longer dry season with increasing temperature and tree mortality in tropics. On this scenario, areas currently occupied by rainforest and savannas could become more suitable for occurrence of the SDTF specialist trees, whereas regions occupied by Caatinga could not support the future level of unsustainable (e.g., aridity). Long-term multidisciplinary studies are necessary to make reliable predictions of the plants adaptation strategies and responses to climate changes in dry forest at community level. Based on the high deforestation rate, endemism and threat, public policies to minimize the effects of climate change on the biodiversity found within SDTFs must be undertaken rapidly.(AU)

Este estudo tem como objetivo avaliar a modelagem de nicho ecológico (ENMs) para três espécies especialistas (Anadenantheracolubrina, Aspidosperma pyrifolium e Myracrodruon urundeuva) de florestas tropicais secas (FTSs) no Brasil, considerando o cenário de mudanças climáticas: presente e futuro pessimistas (2080). Estas três espécies são decíduas e amplamente distribuídas pelas FTSs na América do Sul, sendo importante em estudos sobre os processos históricos e evolutivos experimentados por este ecossistema. A modelagem da distribuição geográfica potencial das espécies foi construída através do método de máxima entropia (Maxent). Foi observada uma expansão geral de áreas adequadas para a ocorrência das três espécies no futuro (cerca de 18%), embora tenha existido uma redução das áreas com alta adequabilidade ambiental na região da Caatinga. A precipitação do trimestre mais úmido e a sazonalidade da temperatura foram os fatores que mais contribuíram para os nossos modelos. As mudanças climáticas podem gerar períodos secos mais severos e longos, com aumento da temperatura e mortalidade de árvores em regiões tropicais. Neste cenário, as áreas atualmente ocupadas por florestas úmidas e savanas poderiam tornar-se mais adequadas para a ocorrência das árvores especialistas em FTSs, enquanto que as regiões ocupadas por Caatinga não poderiam suportar o nível futuro da não adequabilidade (por exemplo, aridez). Estudos multidisciplinares de longa duração são necessários para fazer previsões confiáveis de estratégias adaptativas das plantas e respostas às variações climáticas em FTS em nível de comunidade. Com base na elevada taxa de desmatamento, endemismo e ameaça, políticas públicas para minimizar os efeitos das mudanças climáticas sobre a biodiversidade encontradas dentro FTSs devem ser realizadas rapidamente.(AU)

Potential geographic distribution and conservation of Audubon’s Shearwater, Puffinus lherminieri in Brazil

Audubon’s Shearwater (Puffinus lherminieri Lesson 1839) is a tropical seabird occurring mainly between southern Canada and the southeast coast of Brazil. Puffinus lherminieri is considered Critically Endangered on the Brazilian Red List because it only occurs in two known localities, both of which contain very small populations. However, many offshore islands along the Brazilian coast are poorly known and the discovery of new colonies would be of considerable significance for the conservation of this species. The aim of this study was to estimate the potential geographic distribution of Audubon’s Shearwater in Brazil, based on ecological niche model (ENM) using Maxent algorithm with layers obtained from AquaMaps environmental dataset. The ENM was based on 37 records for reproduction areas in North and South America. The model yielded a very broad potential distribution, covering most of the Atlantic coast ranging from Brazil to the US. When filtered for islands along the Brazilian coast, the model indicates higher levels of environmental suitability near the states of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo and Bahia. However, P. lherminieri prefers islands in environments with warm saline water. Thus, based on the influence of currents that act on the Brazilian coast we can infer undiscovered colonies are most likely to occur on islands on coast of Bahia, Espírito Santo and extreme north of the Rio de Janeiro. These should be intensively surveyed while the islands south of Cabo Frio should be discarded. The existence of new populations would have profound effects on the conservation status of this enigmatic and rarely seen seabird.

Potential geographic distribution and conservation of Audubons Shearwater, Puffinus lherminieri in Brazil

Audubons Shearwater (Puffinus lherminieri Lesson 1839) is a tropical seabird occurring mainly between southern Canada and the southeast coast of Brazil. Puffinus lherminieri is considered Critically Endangered on the Brazilian Red List because it only occurs in two known localities, both of which contain very small populations. However, many offshore islands along the Brazilian coast are poorly known and the discovery of new colonies would be of considerable significance for the conservation of this species. The aim of this study was to estimate the potential geographic distribution of Audubon’s Shearwater in Brazil, based on ecological niche model (ENM) using Maxent algorithm with layers obtained from AquaMaps environmental dataset. The ENM was based on 37 records for reproduction areas in North and South America. The model yielded a very broad potential distribution, covering most of the Atlantic coast ranging from Brazil to the US. When filtered for islands along the Brazilian coast, the model indicates higher levels of environmental suitability near the states of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo and Bahia. However, P. lherminieri prefers islands in environments with warm saline water. Thus, based on the influence of currents that act on the Brazilian coast we can infer undiscovered colonies are most likely to occur on islands on coast of Bahia, Espírito Santo and extreme north of the Rio de Janeiro. These should be intensively surveyed while the islands south of Cabo Frio should be discarded. The existence of new populations would have profound effects on the conservation status of this enigmatic and rarely seen seabird.(AU)

Predicting geographic distributions of Phacellodomus species (Aves: Furnariidae) in South America based on ecological niche modeling / Predição das distribuições geográficas das espécies de Phacellodomus (Aves: Furnariidae) na América do Sul utilizando modelagem de nicho ecológico

Phacellodomus Reichenbach, 1853, comprises nine species of Furnariids that occur in South America in open and generally dry areas. This study estimated the geographic distributions of Phacellodomus species in South America by ecological niche modeling. Applying maximum entropy method, models were produced for eight species based on six climatic variables and 949 occurrence records. Since highest climatic suitability for Phacellodomus species has been estimated in open and dry areas, the Amazon rainforest areas are not very suitable for these species. Annual precipitation and minimum temperature of the coldest month are the variables that most influence the models. Phacellodomus species occurred in 35 ecoregions of South America. Chaco and Uruguayan savannas were the ecoregions with the highest number of species. Despite the overall connection of Phacellodomus species with dry areas, species such as P. ruber, P. rufifrons, P. ferrugineigula and P. erythrophthalmus occurred in wet forests and wetland ecoregions.(AU)

Phacellodomus Reichenbach, 1853 é composto por nove espécies de furnarídeos que ocorrem na América do Sul em áreas abertas e geralmente secas. Este estudo objetivou estimar as distribuições geográficas das espécies de Phacellodomus utilizando modelagem de nicho ecológico. Os modelos foram desenvolvidos com base em seis variáveis climáticas e 949 registros de ocorrência de oito espécies, utilizando o algoritmo Maxent. Maior adequabilidade climática para as espécies de Phacellodomus foi estimada em áreas abertas e secas. Áreas úmidas na Amazônia não foram muito favoráveis para a ocorrência dessas espécies. A precipitação anual e a temperatura mínima do mês mais frio foram as variáveis que mais influenciaram os modelos. As espécies de Phacellodomus ocorreram em 35 ecorregiões da América do Sul. O Chaco e as savanas do Uruguai foram as ecorregiões com o maior número de espécies. Apesar da ampla ocorrência das espécies Phacellodomus em áreas secas, espécies como P. ruber, P. rufifrons, P. ferrugineigula e P. erythrophthalmus ocorreram em florestas úmidas e ecorregiões alagadas.(AU)