Analysis of cigarette demand in Argentina: the impact of price changes on consumption and government revenues / Análisis de la demanda de cigarrillos en Argentina: impacto de variaciones de precios en el consumo y recaudación
Rodríguez-Iglesias, Germán; Schoj, Verónica; Chaloupka, Frank; Champagne, Beatriz; González-Rozada, Martín.
Salud pública Méx
; 59(1): 95-101, Jan.-Feb. 2017. tab, graf
Artigo
em Inglês
| LILACS | ID: biblio-846050
Abstract
Objective:
To estimate cigarette demand and to simulate a tax policy targeted to reduce tobacco consumption. Materials andmethods:
Demand was estimated using a vector error correction model. Simulation exercises present the impact of a tax increase on consumption and revenues.Results:
Changes in real income and the real price of cigarettes affect the demand for cigarettes in Argentina. The long term price elasticity is 0.279 (a 10% increase in real prices reduces cigarette consumption by 2.79% per quarter) and the long term income elasticity is 0.411 (a 10% increase in real income raises consumption by 4.11% per quarter). Even in a conservative scenario, simulations show that increasing the price of cigarettes by 100% using excise taxes would maximize revenues and reduce cigarette consumption.Conclusion:
There is sufficient room to increase taxes, reducing cigarette consumption, while still increasing tax revenues.
Biblioteca responsável:
BR1.1
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