The Demographic-Wealth model for cliodynamics.

Cliodynamics is a still a relatively new research area with the purpose of investigating and modelling historical processes. One of its first important mathematical models was proposed by Turchin and called "Demographic-Fiscal Model" (DFM). This DFM was one of the first and is one of a few models that link population with state dynamics. In this work, we propose a possible alternative to the classical Turchin DFM, which contributes to further model development and comparison essential for the field of cliodynamics. Our "Demographic-Wealth Model" (DWM) aims to also model link between population and state dynamics but makes different modelling assumptions, particularly about the type of possible taxation. As an important contribution, we employ tools from nonlinear dynamics, e.g., existence theory for periodic orbits as well as analytical and numerical bifurcation analysis, to analyze the DWM. We believe that these tools can also be helpful for many other current and future models in cliodynamics. One particular focus of our analysis is the occurrence of Hopf bifurcations. Therefore, a detailed analysis is developed regarding equilibria and their possible bifurcations. Especially noticeable is the behavior of the so-called coexistence point. While changing different parameters, a variety of Hopf bifurcations occur. In addition, it is indicated, what role Hopf bifurcations may play in the interplay between population and state dynamics. There are critical values of different parameters that yield periodic behavior and limit cycles when exceeded, similar to the "paradox of enrichment" known in ecology. This means that the DWM provides one possible avenue setup to explain in a simple format the existence of secular cycles, which have been observed in historical data. In summary, our model aims to balance simplicity, linking to the underlying processes and the goal to represent secular cycles.

Scaling approaches and macroecology provide a foundation for assessing ecological resilience in the Anthropocene.

In the Anthropocene, intensifying ecological disturbances pose significant challenges to our predictive capabilities for ecosystem responses. Macroecology-which focuses on emergent statistical patterns in ecological systems-unveils consistent regularities in the organization of biodiversity and ecosystems. These regularities appear in terms of abundance, body size, geographical range, species interaction networks, or the flux of matter and energy. This paper argues for moving beyond qualitative resilience metaphors, such as the 'ball and cup', towards a more quantitative macroecological framework. We suggest a conceptual and theoretical basis for ecological resilience that integrates macroecology with a stochastic diffusion approximation constrained by principles of biological symmetry. This approach provides an alternative novel framework for studying ecological resilience in the Anthropocene. We demonstrate how our framework can effectively quantify the impacts of major disturbances and their extensive ecological ramifications. We further show how biological scaling insights can help quantify the consequences of major disturbances, emphasizing their cascading ecological impacts. The nature of these impacts prompts a re-evaluation of our understanding of resilience. Emphasis on regularities of ecological assemblages can help illuminate resilience dynamics and offer a novel basis to predict and manage the impacts of disturbance in the Anthropocene more efficiently. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Principles of experimental design for ecology and evolution.

Good experimental design is critical for sound empirical ecology and evolution. However, many contemporary studies fail to replicate at the appropriate biological or organizational level, so causal inference might have less vigorous support than often assumed. Here, I provide a guide for how to identify the appropriate scale of replication for a range of common experimental designs in ecological and evolutionary studies. I discuss the merits of replicating multiple scales of biological organization. I suggest that experimental design be discussed in terms of the scale of replication relative to the scale at which inferences are sought when designing, discussing and reviewing experiments in ecology and evolution. I also suggest that more conversations about experimental design are needed, and I hope this piece stimulates such conversation.

Trait variation in patchy landscapes: Morphology of spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) varies more within ponds than between ponds.

The influence of intraspecific trait variation on species interactions makes trait-based approaches critical to understanding eco-evolutionary processes. Because species occupy habitats that are patchily distributed in space, species interactions are influenced not just by the degree of intraspecific trait variation but also the relative proportion of trait variation that occurs within- versus between-patches. Advancement in trait-based ecology hinges on understanding how trait variation is distributed within and between habitat patches across the landscape. We sampled larval spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) across six spatially discrete ponds to quantify within- and between-pond variation in mass, length, and various metrics associated with their relationship (scaling, body condition, shape). Across all traits, within-pond variation contributed more to total observed morphological variation than between-pond variation. Between-pond variation was not negligible, however, and explained 20-41% of total observed variation in measured traits. Between-pond variation was more pronounced in salamander tail morphology compared to head or body morphology, suggesting that pond-level factors more strongly influence tails than other body parts. We also observed differences in mass-length relationships across ponds, both in terms of scaling slopes and intercepts, though differences in the intercepts were much stronger. Preliminary evidence hinted that newly constructed ponds were a driver of the observed differences in mass-length relationships and morphometrics. General pond-level difference in salamander trait covariation suggest that allometric scaling of morphological traits is context dependent in patchy landscapes. Effects of pond age offer the hypothesis that habitat restoration through pond construction is a driver of variation in trait scaling, which managers may leverage to bolster trait diversity.

Habitat use of loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and green (Chelonia mydas) turtles at the northern limit of their distribution range of the Northwest Pacific Ocean.

Verifying habitats, including the foraging and nesting areas for sea turtles, enables an understanding of their spatial ecology and successful planning of their conservation and management strategies. Recently, the observation frequency and bycatch of loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and green (Chelonia mydas) turtles have increased in the northern limit of their distribution range, in the northern part of the East China Sea and East (Japan) Sea. We conducted satellite tracking to investigate the habitat use of seven loggerhead and eight green turtles from June 2016 to August 2022 in this area, where little is known about their spatial ecology. We applied a 50 percent volume contour method to determine their main foraging areas and analyzed 6 environmental variables to characterize their habitats. Loggerhead turtles mainly stayed in and used the East China Sea as a foraging area during the tracking period, while two individuals among them also used the East Sea as a seasonal foraging area. Most green turtles also used the East China Sea as a foraging area, near South Korea and Japan, with one individual among them using the lower area of the East Sea as a seasonal foraging area. Notably, one green turtle traveled to Hainan Island in the South China Sea, a historical nesting area. Our results showed that the two sea turtle species included the East Sea as a seasonal foraging area, possibly owing to the abundance of food sources available, despite its relatively lower sea temperature. Considering that loggerhead and green sea turtles were observed using the northern part of the East China Sea and East Sea more frequently than previously known and that the sea temperature gradually increases due to climate change, conservation and management activities are required for sea turtles in these areas.

Spatiotemporal distribution and bionomics of Anopheles stephensi in different eco-epidemiological settings in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a major public health concern in Ethiopia, and its incidence could worsen with the spread of the invasive mosquito species Anopheles stephensi in the country. This study aimed to provide updates on the distribution of An. stephensi and likely household exposure in Ethiopia. METHODS: Entomological surveillance was performed in 26 urban settings in Ethiopia from 2021 to 2023. A kilometer-by-kilometer quadrant was established per town, and approximately 20 structures per quadrant were surveyed every 3 months. Additional extensive sampling was conducted in 50 randomly selected structures in four urban centers in 2022 and 2023 to assess households' exposure to An. stephensi. Prokopack aspirators and CDC light traps were used to collect adult mosquitoes, and standard dippers were used to collect immature stages. The collected mosquitoes were identified to species level by morphological keys and molecular methods. PCR assays were used to assess Plasmodium infection and mosquito blood meal source. RESULTS: Catches of adult An. stephensi were generally low (mean: 0.15 per trap), with eight positive sites among the 26 surveyed. This mosquito species was reported for the first time in Assosa, western Ethiopia. Anopheles stephensi was the predominant species in four of the eight positive sites, accounting for 75-100% relative abundance of the adult Anopheles catches. Household-level exposure, defined as the percentage of households with a peridomestic presence of An. stephensi, ranged from 18% in Metehara to 30% in Danan. Anopheles arabiensis was the predominant species in 20 of the 26 sites, accounting for 42.9-100% of the Anopheles catches. Bovine blood index, ovine blood index and human blood index values were 69.2%, 32.3% and 24.6%, respectively, for An. stephensi, and 65.4%, 46.7% and 35.8%, respectively, for An. arabiensis. None of the 197 An. stephensi mosquitoes assayed tested positive for Plasmodium sporozoite, while of the 1434 An. arabiensis mosquitoes assayed, 62 were positive for Plasmodium (10 for P. falciparum and 52 for P. vivax). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that the geographical range of An. stephensi has expanded to western Ethiopia. Strongly zoophagic behavior coupled with low adult catches might explain the absence of Plasmodium infection. The level of household exposure to An. stephensi in this study varied across positive sites. Further research is needed to better understand the bionomics and contribution of An. stephensi to malaria transmission.

Nutritional ecology of a prototypical generalist predator, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes).

Generalist species, which exploit a wide range of food resources, are expected to be able to combine available resources as to attain their specific macronutrient ratio (percentage of caloric intake of protein, lipids and carbohydrates). Among mammalian predators, the red fox Vulpes vulpes is a widespread, opportunistic forager: its diet has been largely studied, outlining wide variation according to geographic and climatic factors. We aimed to check if, throughout the species' European range, diets vary widely in macronutrient composition or foxes can combine complementary foods to gain the same nutrient intake. First, we assessed fox's intake target in the framework of nutritional geometry. Secondly, we aimed to highlight the effects of unbalanced diets on fox density, which was assumed as a proxy for Darwinian fitness, as assessed in five areas of the western Italian Alps. Unexpectedly, the target macronutrient ratio of the fox (52.4% protein-, 38.7% lipid- and 8.9% carbohydrate energy) was consistent with that of hypercarnivores, such as wolves and felids, except for carbohydrate intakes in urban and rural habitats. The inverse relation between density and the deviation of observed macronutrient ratios from the intake target suggests that fox capability of surviving in a wide range of habitats may not be exempt from fitness costs and that nutrient availability should be regarded among the biotic factors affecting animal abundance and distribution.

A Bayesian model-based reduced major axis regression.

Reduced major axis (RMA) regression, widely used in the fields of zoology, botany, ecology, biology, spectroscopy, and among others, outweighs the ordinary least square regression by relaxing the assumption that the covariates are without measurement errors. A Bayesian implementation of the RMA regression is presented in this paper, and the equivalence of the estimates of the parameters under the Bayesian and the frequentist frameworks is proved. This model-based Bayesian RMA method is advantageous since the posterior estimates, the standard deviations, as well as the credible intervals of the estimates can be obtained through Markov chain Monte Carlo methods directly. In addition, it is straightforward to extend to the multivariate RMA case. The performance of the Bayesian RMA approach is evaluated in the simulation study, and, finally, the proposed method is applied to analyze a dataset in the plantation.

Cretaceous chloranthoids: early prominence, extinct diversity and missing links.

BACKGROUND: The Chloranthaceae comprise four extant genera (Hedyosmum, Ascarina, Chloranthus and Sarcandra), all with simple flowers. Molecular phylogenetics indicates that the Chloranthaceae diverged very early in angiosperm evolution, although how they are related to eudicots, magnoliids, monocots and Ceratophyllum is uncertain. Fossil pollen similar to that of Ascarina and Hedyosmum has long been recognized in the Early Cretaceous, but over the last four decades evidence of extinct Chloranthaceae based on other types of fossils has expanded dramatically and contributes significantly to understanding the evolution of the family. SCOPE: Studies of fossils from the Cretaceous, especially mesofossils of Early Cretaceous age from Portugal and eastern North America, recognized diverse flowers, fruits, seeds, staminate inflorescences and stamens of extinct chloranthoids. These early chloranthoids include forms related to extant Hedyosmum and also to the Ascarina, Chloranthus and Sarcandra clade. In the Late Cretaceous there are several occurrences of distinctive fossil androecia related to extant Chloranthus. The rich and still expanding Cretaceous record of Chloranthaceae contrasts with a very sparse Cenozoic record, emphasizing that the four extant genera are likely to be relictual, although speciation within the genera might have occurred in relatively recent times. In this study, we describe three new genera of Early Cretaceous chloranthoids and summarize current knowledge on the extinct diversity of the group. CONCLUSIONS: The evolutionary lineage that includes extant Chloranthaceae is diverse and abundantly represented in Early Cretaceous mesofossil floras that provide some of the earliest evidence of angiosperm reproductive structures. Extinct chloranthoids, some of which are clearly in the Chloranthaceae crown group, fill some of the morphological gaps that currently separate the extant genera, help to illuminate how some of the unusual features of extant Chloranthaceae evolved and suggest that Chloranthaceae are of disproportionate importance for a more refined understanding of ecology and phylogeny of early angiosperm diversification.

Temporal and Spatial Comparison of Mercury Bioaccumulation in the Lower Trophic Levels of a Post-glacial Lake Food Web.

Total mercury (Hg) concentrations and carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) stable isotopes were quantified among aquatic invertebrate and sediment samples collected from Keuka Lake in New York's Finger Lakes region to evaluate temporal and spatial variability in Hg bioaccumulation and trophic ecology among these lower trophic levels. Hg concentrations ranged from 6.3 to 158.8 ng/g (dry wt) across dreissenid mussel, zooplankton, and juvenile (< 10 mm) and adult (≥ 10 mm) mysid shrimp (Mysis diluviana) samples. Hg concentrations were higher in samples collected from the western basin in 2015 relative to those for samples collected from this basin in 2022 (p < 0.001). While no specific mechanisms could be identified to explain this difference, higher δ15N values for zooplankton collected in 2015 support conclusions regarding the role of zooplankton trophic status on Hg concentrations in these populations. Spatial patterns in Hg concentrations were of generally low variability among samples collected from the lake's east, west and south basins in 2022. Trophic positions as inferred by δ15N were represented by adult mysids > juvenile mysids > large zooplankton (≥ 500 µm) > dreissenid mussels ≥ small zooplankton (64-500 µm). Differences were evident among the regression slopes describing the relationships between sample Hg concentrations and δ15N values across the lake's three basins (p = 0.028). However, this was primarily attributed to high δ15N values measured in dreissenid mussels collected from the south basin in 2022. Biota sediment accumulation factors ranged from 0.2 to 2.3 and were highest for adult M. diluviana but mysid δ13C values generally supported a pelagic pathway of Hg exposure relative to benthic sediments. Overall, these results provide additional support regarding the contributions of lower trophic levels to Hg biomagnification in aquatic food-webs.

High-resolution vision in pelagic polychaetes.

High-resolution object vision - the ability to separate, classify, and interact with specific objects in the environment against the visual background - has only been conclusively shown to have evolved in three of the thirty-five animal phyla: chordates, arthropods, and mollusks (cephalopods)1. However, alciopid polychaetes (Phyllodocidae, Alciopini), which possess a pair of bulbous camera-type eyes, have also been hypothesized to achieve high acuity. In this study, we examined three species of night-active pelagic alciopids from the Mediterranean Sea. Our optical, morphological, and electrophysiological investigations show that their eyes have high spatial acuity and temporal resolution, supporting the notion that they are capable of active, high-resolution object vision. These results encourage interesting hypotheses about the visual ecology of these enigmatic polychaetes.

Ecology: The fruits of local knowledge.

Local and indigenous communities often have an intimate connection to nature that is reflected in their ecological knowledge and practices. A new study shows that local ecological knowledge can transform the scientific understanding of an ecological network.

Linking cell biology and ecology to understand coral symbiosis evolution.

Understanding the evolution of coral endosymbiosis requires a predictive framework that integrates life-history theory and ecology with cell biology. The time has come to bridge disciplines and use a model systems approach to achieve this aim.

Evidence for cryptic molting behavior in the trilobite Toxochasmops vormsiensis from the Upper Ordovician Katian Kõrgessaare Formation, Estonia.

Documentation of cryptic trilobite behavior has presented important insights into the paleoecology of this fully extinct arthropod group. One such example is the preservation of trilobites inside the remains of larger animals. To date, evidence for trilobites within cephalopods, gastropods, hyoliths, and other trilobites has been presented. Importantly, most of these interactions show trilobite molts, suggesting that trilobites used larger animals for protection during molting. To expand the record of molted trilobites within cephalopods, we present a unique case of a Toxochasmops vormsiensis trilobite within the body chamber of a Gorbyoceras textumaraneum nautiloid from the Upper Ordovician Kõrgessaare Formation of Estonia. By examining this material, we present new insights into the ecology of pterygometopid trilobites, highlighting how these forms used large cephalopods as areas to successfully molt.

Storylines of family medicine I: framing family medicine - history, values and perspectives.

Storylines of Family Medicine is a 12-part series of thematically linked mini-essays with accompanying illustrations that explore the many dimensions of family medicine, as interpreted by individual family physicians and medical educators in the USA and elsewhere around the world. In 'I: framing family medicine-history, values, and perspectives', the authors address the following themes: 'Notes on Storylines of Family Medicine', 'Family medicine-the generalist specialty', 'Family medicine's achievements-a glass half full assessment', 'Family medicine's next 50 years-toward filling our glasses', 'Four enduring truths of family medicine', 'Names matter', 'Family medicine at its core' and 'The ecology of medical care.' May readers find much food for thought in these essays.

Are parental condition transfer effects more widespread than is currently appreciated?

It has long been recognized that the environment experienced by parents can influence the traits of offspring (i.e. 'parental effects'). Much research has explored whether mothers respond to predictable shifts in environmental signals by modifying offspring phenotypes to best match future conditions. Many organisms experience conditions that theory predicts should favor the evolution of such 'anticipatory parental effects', but such predictions have received limited empirical support. 'Condition transfer effects' are an alternative to anticipatory effects that occur when the environment experienced by parents during development influences offspring fitness. Condition transfer effects occur when parents that experience high-quality conditions produce offspring that exhibit higher fitness irrespective of the environmental conditions in the offspring generation. Condition transfer effects are not driven by external signals but are instead a byproduct of past environmental quality. They are also likely adaptive but have received far less attention than anticipatory effects. Here, we review the generality of condition transfer effects and show that they are much more widespread than is currently appreciated. Condition transfer effects are observed across taxa and are commonly associated with experimental manipulations of resource conditions experienced by parents. Our Review calls for increased research into condition transfer effects when considering the role of parental effects in ecology and evolution.

Intraspecific variability of leaf form and function across habitat types.

Trait-based ecology has already revealed main independent axes of trait variation defining trait spaces that summarize plant adaptive strategies, but often ignoring intraspecific trait variability (ITV). By using empirical ITV-level data for two independent dimensions of leaf form and function and 167 species across five habitat types (coastal dunes, forests, grasslands, heathlands, wetlands) in the Italian peninsula, we found that ITV: (i) rotated the axes of trait variation that define the trait space; (ii) increased the variance explained by these axes and (iii) affected the functional structure of the target trait space. However, the magnitude of these effects was rather small and depended on the trait and habitat type. Our results reinforce the idea that ITV is context-dependent, calling for careful extrapolations of ITV patterns across traits and spatial scales. Importantly, our study provides a framework that can be used to start integrating ITV into trait space analyses.

Computationally reproducing results from meta-analyses in ecology and evolutionary biology using shared code and data.

Many journals in ecology and evolutionary biology encourage or require authors to make their data and code available alongside articles. In this study we investigated how often this data and code could be used together, when both were available, to computationally reproduce results published in articles. We surveyed the data and code sharing practices of 177 meta-analyses published in ecology and evolutionary biology journals published between 2015-17: 60% of articles shared data only, 1% shared code only, and 15% shared both data and code. In each of the articles which had shared both (n = 26), we selected a target result and attempted to reproduce it. Using the shared data and code files, we successfully reproduced the targeted results in 27-73% of the 26 articles, depending on the stringency of the criteria applied for a successful reproduction. The results from this sample of meta-analyses in the 2015-17 literature can provide a benchmark for future meta-research studies gauging the computational reproducibility of published research in ecology and evolutionary biology.