Nomogram for predicting post-traumatic hydrocephalus after decompressive craniectomy for traumatic brain injury

SUMMARY OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop and validate a practical nomogram to predict the occurrence of post-traumatic hydrocephalus in patients who have undergone decompressive craniectomy for traumatic brain injury. METHODS: A total of 516 cases were enrolled and divided into the training (n=364) and validation (n=152) cohorts. Optimal predictors were selected through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis of the training cohort then used to develop a nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis, respectively, were used to evaluate the discrimination, fitting performance, and clinical utility of the resulting nomogram in the validation cohort. RESULTS: Preoperative subarachnoid hemorrhage Fisher grade, type of decompressive craniectomy, transcalvarial herniation volume, subdural hygroma, and functional outcome were all identified as predictors and included in the predicting model. The nomogram exhibited good discrimination in the validation cohort and had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 (95%CI 0.72-0.88). The calibration plot demonstrated goodness-of-fit between the nomogram's prediction and actual observation in the validation cohort. Finally, decision curve analysis indicated significant clinical adaptability. CONCLUSION: The present study developed and validated a model to predict post-traumatic hydrocephalus. The nomogram that had good discrimination, calibration, and clinical practicality can be useful for screening patients at a high risk of post-traumatic hydrocephalus. The nomogram can also be used in clinical practice to develop better therapeutic strategies.

Evaluación del rendimiento diagnóstico de un nomograma de predicción de preeclampsia / Evaluation of the diagnostic performance of a preeclampsia prediction nomogram

OBJETIVO: Determinar el rendimiento diagnóstico de un nomograma de predicción de preeclampsia en gestantes atendidas en el Hospital Nacional Dos de Mayo en Lima, Perú de enero de 2016 a julio de 2019. MÉTODO: Estudio de tipo pruebas diagnósticas. Se contó con una muestra de 513 pacientes; de ellas, 225 con diagnóstico de preeclampsia y 288 sin dicho diagnóstico. El análisis de los datos obtenidos se realizó en STATA v.14 y se determinaron la sensibilidad, la especificidad, el valor predictivo positivo y el valor predictivo negativo. RESULTADOS: Se analizó la curva ROC y se encontró un área bajo la curva de 0,91 (intervalo de confianza del 95%: 0,89-0,93), obteniendo 187 puntos como valor de corte de mejor rendimiento diagnóstico, con una sensibilidad del 81,33% y una especificidad del 85,76%. CONCLUSIONES: El nomograma de predicción de preeclampsia tiene un buen rendimiento diagnóstico para las gestantes atendidas en el servicio de ginecología y obstetricia del Hospital Nacional Dos de Mayo.

OBJECTIVE: Determine the diagnostic performance of a preeclampsia prediction nomogram in pregnant women attended at the Dos de Mayo National Hospital during the period from January 2016 to July 2019. METHOD: Study of diagnostic tests. There was a sample of 513 patients, 225 patients with a diagnosis of pre-eclampsia and 288 patients without such diagnosis were selected. The analysis of the data obtained was carried out in STATA v.14, obtaining the values of sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV. RESULTS: The ROC curve was analyzed obtaining an AUC of 0.91 (95% CI: 0.89 - 0.93), obtaining 187 points as the cut-off point for the best diagnostic performance, with a sensitivity of 81.33% and a specificity of 85.76%. CONCLUSIONS: The preeclampsia prediction nomogram has a good diagnostic performance for pregnant women attended at the Gynecology and Obstetrics service of the Dos de Mayo National Hospital.

Survival nomogram for patients with bone metastatic renal cell carcinoma: A population-based study

ABSTRACT Purpose: Increased attention has been focused on the survival of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients with bone metastasis. This study proposed to establish and evaluate a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of RCC patients with bone metastasis. Materials and Methods: RCC patients with bone metastasis between 2010 and 2015 were captured from the surveillance, epidemiology and end results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate cox regressions were performed to assess the effects of clinical variables on OS and CSS. The nomogram based on the Cox hazards regression model was developed. Concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were performed to evaluate the accuracy of nomogram models, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) were conducted to assess the predict performance. Results: A total of 2.471 eligible patients were enrolled in this study. The patients were assigned to primary (n=1.672) and validation (n=799) cohorts randomly. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS and CSS nomogram models were constructed based on age at diagnosis, sex, marital status, pathological grade, T-stage, N-stage, brain/liver/lung metastasis, surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy. The c for OS and CSS prediction was 0.730 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.719-0.741) and 0.714 (95%CI:0.702-0.726). The calibration curves showed significant agreement between nomogram models and actual observations. ROC and DCA indicated nomograms had better predict performance. Conclusions: The nomograms for predicting prognosis provided an accurate prediction of OS and CSS in RCC patients with bone metastasis, and contributed clinicians to optimize individualized treatment plans.

Exploration of the risk factors of essential hypertension with hyperhomocysteinemia: A hospital-based study and nomogram analysis

OBJECTIVES: To explore the risk factors of essential hypertension with hyperhomocysteinemia (H-type hypertension) and design a nomogram to predict this risk. METHODS: A hospital-based study was conducted on 1,712 individuals, including 282 patients with H-type hypertension, 105 patients with simple hypertension, 645 individuals with hyperhomocysteinemia, and 680 healthy controls. Logistic regression and nomogram models were applied to evaluate the risk factors. RESULTS: Logistic regression showed that advanced age, male sex, high body mass index (BMI), high total cholesterol levels, high glucose levels, and high creatinine levels were risk factors of H-type hypertension in the healthy population and were integrated into the nomogram model. Advanced age, male sex, high BMI, high total cholesterol levels, and high glucose levels were shown to be risk factors of H-type hypertension in the hyperhomocysteinemia population. Male sex and high creatinine levels were shown to be risk factors of H-type hypertension in the hypertension population. Nomogram analysis showed that the total factor score ranged from 106 to 206, and the corresponding risk rate ranged from 0.05 to 0.95. CONCLUSIONS: Men are more likely to have H-type hypertension, and advanced age, high BMI, high total cholesterol levels, and high glucose levels are risk factors of H-type hypertension in healthy and hyperhomocysteinemia populations. Furthermore, high creatinine level is a risk factor of H-type hypertension in healthy and hypertension populations. Nomogram models may be used to intuitively evaluate H-type hypertension risk and provide a basis for personalized interventions.

External validation of nomogram to predict inguinal lymph node metastasis in patients with penile cancer and clinically negative lymph nodes

ABSTRACT Introduction Penile cancer (PC) occurs less frequently in Europe and in the United States than in South America and parts of Africa. Lymph node (LN) involvement is the most important prognostic factor, and inguinal LN (ILN) dissection can be curative; however, ILN dissection has high morbidity. A nomogram was previously developed based on clinicopathological features of PC to predict ILN metastases. Our objective was to conduct an external validation of the previously developed nomogram based on our population. Materials and methods We included men with cN0 ILNs who underwent ILN dissection for penile carcinoma between 2000 and 2014. We performed external validation of the nomogram considering three different external validation methods: k-fold, leave-one-out, and bootstrap. We also analyzed prognostic variables. Performance was quantified in terms of calibration and discrimination (receiver operator characteristic curve). A logistic regression model for positive ILNs was developed based on clinicopathological features of PC. Results We analyzed 65 men who underwent ILN dissection (cN0). The mean age was 56.8 years. Of 65 men, 24 (36.9%) presented with positive LNs. A median 21 ILNs were removed. Considering the three different methods used, we concluded that the previously developed nomogram was not suitable for our sample. Conclusions In our study, the previously developed nomogram that was applied to our population had low accuracy and low precision for correctly identifying patients with PC who have positive ILNs.

Uso de procalcitonina como diagnóstico de sepsis o shock séptico: revisión sistemática y metaanálisis / Procalcitonin test for diagnosis of sepsis or septic shock: systematic review of literature and metanalysis

Introducción: La procalcitonina (PCT) es una prohormona de la calcitonina, producida por las células C de la glándula tiroides y convertida intracelularmente por enzimas proteolíticas en la hormona activa. La producción de PCT durante procesos inflamatorios, está ligada a endotoxinas bacterianas y a citoquinas inflamatorias. La mortalidad por sepsis, depende en gran medida de la detección precoz y del inicio de una terapia adecuada, incluyendo la administración de antibióticos apropiados, sin embargo, no está claro si el rendimiento diagnóstico de la PCT en el contexto de la nueva definición de sepsis en el tercer consenso es igual que con la definición previa. Métodos: Se incluyeron estudios que describieran el uso de PCT dentro de las primeras 24 horas de admisión, como prueba diagnóstica de sepsis. Se realizó la búsqueda en las bases de datos de Medline (Pubmed) y Embase. La calidad metodológica se evaluó según la Colaboración Cochrane en el desarrollo de Revisiones Sistemáticas sobre Test de Análisis para la herramienta QUADAS-II. El sesgo de publicación fue estudiado con el Test de Asimetría de Deeks. Se usó el módulo de MIDAS de STATA 14 para el análisis univariado y la construcción de la Curva de ROC. Resultados: Se obtuvieron 2076 registros (783 de Medline y 1293 de Embase). De los 12 estudios seleccionados, se incluyeron un total de 1353 pacientes, con una prevalencia en los estudios revisados entre el 9% y 88%, con un promedio del 47%. La Sensibilidad agrupada fue 0,83% (IC95% (0,74-0,89)) y la Especificidad fue 0,84% (IC95%(0,76-0,89)). El área bajo la Curva fue 0,90 (IC95%(0,87-0,92)). La heterogeneidad entre los estudios es importante I2 88% (IC95%(77-100)). Existe un sesgo de publicación según el test de Deek, con resultado P=0,04. En el análisis sobre la Probabilidad Post test según el nomograma de Fagan, es del 56%, teniendo en cuenta una probabilidad pretest del 20% según el LR positivo 5. Conclusión: La PCT es una prueba diagnóstica con buen rendimiento para sepsis o shock séptico, en pacientes adultos, no gestantes. Aunque hay sesgo de publicación y una gran heterogeneidad en los resultados, la prueba se considera adecuada para el escenario de sepsis según las nuevas definiciones.

Background: Procalcitonin (PCT) is a prohormone of calcitonin, produced by cells C of the thyroid gland and intracellurarly cleaved by proteolytic enzymes into the active hormone. The production of PCT during inflammatory process, is linked with a bacterial endotoxin and with inflammatory cytokines. Mortality due to sepsis, depends to a large extent on a early detection and early start of adecuade therapy, that includes giving appropriate antibiotics. It´s no clear if the PTC diagnostic performance is the same in the context of the definition of the third consensus as in the previous definition. Methods: Studies describing the use of PCT within the frst 24 hours of admission as a diagnostic test for sepsis were included. We searched the Medline (Pubmed) and Embase databases. The methodological quality was evaluated according to the Cochrane Collaboration in the development of Systematic Reviews on Analysis Test for the QUADAS-II tool. The publication bias was studied with the Deeks Asymmetry Test. The MIDAS module of STATA 14 was used for the univariate analysis and the construction of the ROC Curve. Results: 2076 records were obtained (783 from Medline and 1293 from Embase). Of the 12 selected studies, a total of 1353 patients were included, with a prevalence in the studies reviewed between 9% and 88%, with an average of 47%. The pooled sensitivity was 0.83% (CI 95% (0.74-0.89)) and the Specificity was 0.84% (CI 95% (0.76-0.89)). The area under the Curve was 0.90 (CI 95% (0.87-0.92)). Heterogeneity between the studies is important I2 88% (CI 95%(77-100)). There is a publication bias according to the Deek test, with a result of P = 0.04. In the analysis on the post test Probability according to the Fagan nomogram, it is 56%, taking into account a pretest probability of 20% according to the positive LR 5. Conclusions: PCT is a diagnostic test with good performance for sepsis or septic shock, in adult patients, not pregnant. Although there is publication bias and great heterogeneity in the results, the test is considered adequate for the sepsis setting according to the new definitions.

Predicting urine output after kidney transplantation: development and internal validation of a nomogram for clinical use

ABSTRACT Purpose: To analyze pre-transplantation and early postoperative factors affecting post-transplantation urine output and develop a predictive nomogram. Patients and Methods: Retrospective analysis of non-preemptive first transplanted adult patients between 2001-2016. The outcomes were hourly diuresis in mL/Kg in the 1st (UO1) and 8th (UO8) postoperative days (POD). Predictors for both UO1 and UO8 were cold ischemia time (CIT), patient and donor age and sex, HLA I and II compatibility, pre-transplantation duration of renal replacement therapy (RRT), cause of ESRD (ESRD) and immunosuppressive regimen. UO8 predictors also included UO1, 1st/0th POD plasma creatinine concentration ratio (Cr1/0), and occurrence of acute cellular rejection (AR). Multivariable linear regression was employed to produce nomograms for UO1 and UO8. Results: Four hundred and seventy-three patients were included, mostly deceased donor kidneys' recipients (361, 70.4%). CIT inversely correlated with UO1 and UO8 (Spearman's p=-0.43 and −0.37). CR1/0 inversely correlated with UO8 (p=-0.47). On multivariable analysis UO1 was mainly influenced by CIT, with additional influences of donor age and sex, HLA II matching and ESRD. UO1 was the strongest predictor of UO8, with significant influences of AR and ESRD. Conclusions: The predominant influence of CIT on UO1 rapidly wanes and is replaced by indicators of functional recovery (mainly UO1) and allograft's immunologic acceptance (AR absence). Mean absolute errors for nomograms were 0.08 mL/Kg h (UO1) and 0.05 mL/Kg h (UO8).

Predictive model of unfavorable outcomes for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis / Modelo preditivo dos desfechos desfavoráveis da tuberculose multidroga-resistente

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE to analyze the temporal trend, identify the factors related and elaborate a predictive model for unfavorable treatment outcomes for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). METHODS Retrospective cohort study with all cases diagnosed with MDR-TB between the years 2006 and 2015 in the state of São Paulo. The data were collected from the state system of TB cases notifications (TB-WEB). The temporal trend analyzes of treatment outcomes was performed through the Prais-Winsten analysis. In order to verify the factors related to the unfavorable outcomes, abandonment, death with basic cause TB and treatment failure, the binary logistic regression was used. Pictorial representations of the factors related to treatment outcome and their prognostic capacity through the nomogram were elaborated. RESULTS Both abandonment and death have a constant temporal tendency, whereas the failure showed it as decreasing. Regarding the risk factors for such outcomes, using illicit drugs doubled the odds for abandonment and death. Besides that, being diagnosed in emergency units or during hospitalizations was a risk factor for death. On the contrary, having previous multidrug-resistant treatments reduced the odds for the analyzed outcomes by 33%. The nomogram presented a predictive model with 65% accuracy for dropouts, 70% for deaths and 80% for failure. CONCLUSIONS The modification of the current model of care is an essential factor for the prevention of unfavorable outcomes. Through predictive models, as presented in this study, it is possible to develop patient-centered actions, considering their risk factors and increasing the chances for cure.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Analisar a tendência temporal, identificar os fatores relacionados e elaborar um modelo preditivo para os desfechos desfavoráveis do tratamento da tuberculose multidroga-resistente. MÉTODOS Estudo de coorte retrospectiva com todos os casos diagnosticados com tuberculose multidroga-resistente entre os anos de 2006 e 2015 no estado de São Paulo. Os dados secundários foram provenientes do sistema estadual de notificações de casos de tuberculose, o TBWeb. Foi realizada a análise de tendência temporal dos desfechos de tratamento por meio da regressão de Prais-Winsten. Para verificar os fatores relacionados com os desfechos desfavoráveis (óbito com tuberculose como causa básica, abandono e falência do tratamento), foi empregada a regressão logística binária. Representações pictóricas dos fatores relacionados ao desfecho do tratamento e sua capacidade prognóstica foram elaboradas por meio de nomogramas. RESULTADOS Tanto o abandono como o óbito tiveram tendência temporal estacionária, enquanto a falência apresentou tendência decrescente. Em relação aos fatores de risco para tais desfechos, utilizar drogas ilícitas dobrou as chances de abandono e óbito. Além disso, ser diagnosticado em unidades de urgência ou emergência ou durante internações hospitalares foi um fator de risco para o óbito. Ao contrário, ter feito tratamentos prévios da multidroga-resistência reduziu as chances dos desfechos analisados. O nomograma apresentou um modelo preditivo com precisão de 65% para os abandonos, 70% para os óbitos e 80% para a falência. CONCLUSÕES A prevenção de desfechos desfavoráveis no tratamento da tuberculose multidroga-resistente implica a modificação do modelo de atenção vigente. Utilizando modelos preditivos, como o apresentado neste estudo, torna-se possível elaborar ações centradas nos pacientes, considerando seus fatores de risco e aumentando as chances de cura.

Clinical and pathologic factors predicting reclassification in active surveillance cohorts

ABSTRACT The incidence of small, lower risk well-differentiated prostate cancer is increasing and almost half of the patients with this diagnosis are candidates for initial conservative management in an attempt to avoid overtreatment and morbidity associated with surgery or radiation. A proportion of patients labeled as low risk, candidates for Active Surveillance (AS), harbor aggressive disease and would benefit from definitive treatment. The focus of this review is to identify clinicopathologic features that may help identify these less optimal AS candidates. A systematic Medline/PubMed Review was performed in January 2017 according to PRISMA guidelines; 83 articles were selected for full text review according to their relevance and after applying limits described. For patients meeting AS criteria including Gleason Score 6, several factors can assist in predicting those patients that are at higher risk for reclassification including higher PSA density, bilateral cancer, African American race, small prostate volume and low testosterone. Nomograms combining these features improve risk stratification. Clinical and pathologic features provide a significant amount of information for risk stratification (>70%) for patients considering active surveillance. Higher risk patient subgroups can benefit from further evaluation or consideration of treatment. Recommendations will continue to evolve as data from longer term AS cohorts matures.

Criação de um nomograma preditivo de comprometimento de linfonodos não sentinela, em pacientes com melanoma cutâneo após linfonodo sentinela positivo / Creating a predictive nomogram for non-sentinel node positivity in melanoma patients after a positive sentinel node biopsy

Ainda que a técnica da biópsia do linfonodo sentinela (BLS) esteja consagrada como ferramenta de estadiamento em pacientes com melanoma cutâneo, a conduta frente à positividade do linfonodo é alvo de discussão. Evidências recentes mostram que não há benefício oncológico em completar a linfadenectomia nesses pacientes. Entretanto, reconhecer pacientes com comprometimento de linfonodos não sentinela (LNNS) tem valor prognóstico e pode auxiliar na seleção de pacientes que se beneficiariam de tratamentos adjuvantes. Objetivos: O objetivo primário é criar um nomograma preditivo de comprometimento de LNNS na linfadenectomia, baseado em características clínicas do paciente e anatomopatológicas do tumor primário e do linfonodo sentinela, nos pacientes portadores de melanoma cutâneo. O objetivo secundário é avaliar, dentro dessas mesmas características, como elas influenciam em sobrevida livre de recidiva (SLR) e sobrevida melanoma específica (SME), nos pacientes com BLS positiva e também nos pacientes com BLS negativa. Material e métodos: Análise retrospectiva dos pacientes com diagnóstico de melanoma cutâneo submetidos à BLS no Núcleo de Câncer de Pele do A.C.Camargo Cancer Center, São Paulo / SP ­ Brasil, entre os anos de 2000 a 2015. Variáveis significativas dentro dos modelos de regressão logística múltipla e regressão de Cox múltipla foram utilizadas para a criação dos nomogramas. Resultados: No período estudado foram realizadas 1223 BLS, das quais 10 foram excluídas das análises. A BLS foi positiva em 246 casos (20,3%), permitindo criar um nomograma preditor de positividade baseado na topografia da lesão primária, espessura de Breslow, índice mitótico, regressão e invasão linfática, com acurácia de 74,5%. Dentre esses pacientes, 242 foram submetidos a linfadenectomia e 37 (15,3%) apresentaram LNNS acometidos. O nomograma preditor dessa situação utilizou como variáveis índice mitótico, número de linfonodos sentinela positivos e diâmetro do maior foco metastático no linfonodo positivo, e apresentou acurácia de 86,3%. Entre os pacientes com BLS negativa, espessura de Breslow, satelitose microscópica e ulceração foram os fatores associados com risco de recidiva, criando assim um terceiro nomograma. Conclusão: Foi possível criar um nomograma preditivo de probabilidade de comprometimento de LNNS em pacientes portadores de melanoma cutâneo com BLS positiva. Também foi possível avaliar fatores de pior prognóstico, no que tange SLR e SME nos pacientes com BLS negativa

Although Sentinel Node Biopsy (SNB) is a well-established staging tool in melanoma patients, the management of these patients after a positive node is controversial. Recent data shows no oncological benefits in completion node dissection. However, identification of patients with positive non-sentinel nodes (NSN) presents a prognostic value and can help on selecting patients that may benefit from adjuvant therapies. Objectives: Primary endpoint is the creation of a predictive nomogram for NSN positivity based on clinical and pathological features and both on primary tumor and sentinel node characteristics in melanoma patients. Secondary endpoint is to evaluate the influence of these features in recurrence free survival (RFS) and Melanoma specific survival (MSS) not only in melanoma patients with a positive SNB but also in those with a negative SNB. Material and Methods: Retrospective analysis of melanoma patients who underwent SNB in the Skin Cancer Department of A.C.Camargo Cancer Center ­ São Paulo / SP ­ Brazil, between 2000 and 2015. Significant variables in the multiple logistic regression models, as well as in Cox regression models were used for the nomograms. Results: There were 1223 SNB in the period, and 10 of them were excluded from the analysis. SNB was positive in 246 cases (20.3%), which led to the creation of a predictive nomogram for positivity based on topography of primary lesion, Breslow thickness, mitotic index, regression and lymphatic invasion, with 74.5% of accuracy. Among these patients, 242 underwent completion node dissection and 37 (15.3%) had positive NSN. For this situation, mitotic index, number of positive sentinel nodes and diameter of the largest metastatic deposit in the positive node were used as variables for the predictive nomogram, with an 86.3% accuracy. Among patients with a negative SNB, Breslow thickness, ulceration and microscopic satellitosis were related to higher recurrence risk, and a third nomogram was done. Conclusion: It was possible to create a predictive nomogram for NSN positivity in melanoma patients after a positive SNB. It was also possible to evaluate worse prognostic factors regarding RFS and MSS in melanoma patients after a negative SNB

What is the quickest scoring system to predict percutaneous nephrolithotomy outcomes? A comparative study among S. T. O. N. E score, guy's stone ccore and croes nomogram

ABSTRACT Objective: To compare the application time and the capacity of the nomograms to predict the success of Guy's Stone Score (GSS), S.T.O.N.E. Nephrolithometry (STONE) and Clinical Research Office of the Endourological Society nephrolithometric nomogram (CROES) of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL), evaluating the most efficient one for clinical use. Materials and Methods: We studied 48 patients who underwent PCNL by the same surgeon between 2010 and 2011. We calculated GSS, STONE and CROES based on pre-operative non-contrast computed tomography (CT) images and clinical data. A single observer, blinded to the outcomes, reviewed all images and assigned scores. We compared the application time of each nomogram. We used an analysis of variance for repeated measures and multiple comparisons by the Tukey test. We compared the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the three nomograms two by two to determine the most predictive scoring system. Results: The immediate success rate was 66.7% and complications occurred in 16.7% of cases. The average operative time was 122 minutes. Mean application time was significantly lower for the GSS (27.5 seconds) when compared to 300.6 seconds for STONE and 213.4 seconds for CROES (p<0.001). There was no significant difference among the GSS (AUC=0.653), STONE (AUC=0.563) and CROES (AUC=0.641) in the ability to predict immediate success of PCNL. Conclusions: All three nomograms showed similar ability to predict success of PCNL, however the GSS was the quickest to be applied, what is an important issue for routine clinical use when counseling patients who are candidates to PCNL.

Nomograma para a estimativa da taxa de filtração glomerular em indivíduos idosos / Nomogram for estimating glomerular filtration rate in elderly people

ResumoApós a segunda década de vida, a taxa de filtração glomerular (TFG) diminui progressivamente. Ainda existe considerável debate sobre a importância desta "diminuição fisiológica" da TFG com a idade, em muitas situações atribuídas aos efeitos da concomitância de hipertensão arterial, aterosclerose, doenças cardiovasculares (entre outras) observadas nos idosos. A TFG é considerada a melhor indicação da função renal e sua estimativa tem sido sugerida nas principais diretrizes sobre doença renal crônica (DRC). Contudo, nas equações mais comumente utilizadas os indivíduos idosos não foram incluídos ou estavam sub-representados. O objetivo desta é descrever um nomograma baseado em uma equação para estimar a TFG baseada na creatinina, sexo e idade (foram incluídos apenas indivíduos com mais de 70 anos de idade) que foi desenvolvida para o estudo Berlin Initiative Study. A performance da equação, denominada BIS1, foi comparada com o Hioxal (padrão ouro), três equações baseadas na creatinina (CG, MDRD e CKD-EPI) e três equações baseadas na cistatina C (propostas pelo CKD-EPI) e demonstrou o segundo menor viés entre todas as equações e, quando comparada as equações CG, MDRD e CKD-EPI, apresentou a menor taxa de classificação errônea da DRC nos participantes com menos de 60 mL/min/1,73 m2.

AbstractAfter the second decade of life, the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decreases progressively. There is still considerable debate about the importance of this "physiological decrease" in GFR with age in many situations attributed to the effects of concomitant hypertension, atherosclerosis, cardiovascular diseases (among others) observed in the elderly. The GFR is considered the best indicator of renal function and its estimate has been suggested in the guidelines of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, in the most commonly equations used, the elderly subjects were not included or were underrepresented. The purpose of this is to describe a nomogram based on an equation to estimate GFR based on serum creatinine, age and sex that was developed for the study Berlin Initiative Study (only individuals older than 70 years were included). The performance of the equation, called BIS1 was compared with Hioxal (gold standard), three equations based on serum creatinine (CG, MDRD and CKD-EPI) and three equations based on cystatin C (proposed by the CKD-EPI) and the second showed less bias among that another equations and compared the CG, MDRD and CKD-EPI equations, had the lowest rate of misclassification of CKD in participants with less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2.

Correlación de valores de TTPa con anti factor Xa para establecer rango terapéutico en tratamiento anticoagulante con heparina sódica / Correlation between aPTT and antifactor Xa to determine therapeutic ranges for unfractionated heparin

Background: The therapeutic range (TR) of activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) for unfractionated heparin (UFH) dosing was established in the 1970 decade. Since then aPTT determination has changed. Current TR may be sub or supra-therapeutic depending on the reagents of the test, and therefore, responsible for complications of therapy. Aim: To establish the TR for UFH dosing in our institution using antifactor Xa analysis as reference standard. Material and Methods: After obtaining an informed consent, 43 blood samples were obtained for aPTT determination and antifactor Xa assay in 23 patients treated with intravenous UFH. Samples were processed at Emergency and Hemostasis Labs. We excluded patients receiving other anticoagulants, with thrombophilia, pregnancy or liver disease. Results: Mean aPTT values in the Hemostasis and Emergency labs ​​were 57.1 ± 18.9 and 56.6 ± 18.3 seconds, respectively (p = 0.77). The squared correlation coefficients between aPTT and antifactor Xa at hemostasis and emergency labs were R2 0.5 and 0.45 respectively, p < 0.001. Using a linear regression analysis, therapeutic aPTT range values ​​in our laboratory were established between 50 and 80 seconds, corresponding to antifactor Xa values of 0.3 to 0.7 IU/mL. Conclusions: According to current recommendations, validation of aPTT determination with reference techniques should be done in every institution.

Clinical utility of prostate-specific antigen mass ratio for prediction of prostate cancer detection on a repeated prostate biopsy

Purpose To assess the clinical utility of the prostate-specific antigen mass ratio (PSA-MR), a newly developed PSA derivative, simply defined as the (i) PSA density (PSA-D) multiplied by the plasma volume or (ii) total PSA amount in circulation per prostate volume, for predicting prostate cancer (PCa) among men undergoing repeated prostate biopsy (PBx). Materials and Methods Patients (n = 286), who underwent a repeated PBx, were analyzed. The various parameters associated with PCa detection were noted in each patient. PSA-MR was also calculated. Results PCa was detected in 63 (22.0%) of 286 patients. PSA-MR was the independent predictor in the univariate- and multivariate logistic regression analyses (OR = 3.448, p = 0.001 and OR = 13.430, p = 0.033, respectively). A nomogram that incorporated PSA-MR was considered a useful tool (predictive accuracy: 79.2%, 95% CI: 0.726-0.858, p < 0.001). Furthermore, a nomogram that incorporated PSA-MR would have avoided 59.6% of unnecessary repeated PBx. The predictive accuracy of PSA-MR was also superior to that of PSA or PSA-D (p = 0.013 and 0.009, respectively). Conclusions PSA-MR was an independent predictor, and its consideration would have avoided 59.6% of unnecessary repeated PBx for PCa detection. PSA-MR was also superior than PSA or PSA-D. Our results support the use of PSA-MR to facilitate counseling with patients after a negative initial PBx, and use of PSA-MR might reduce further unnecessary biopsies. .

Validation of transcutaneous bilirubin nomogram for identifying neonatal hyperbilirubinemia in healthy Chinese term and late-preterm infants: a multicenter study / Validação de um nomograma de bilirrubina transcutânea para identificação de hiperbilirrubinemia neonatal em neonatos a termo e pré-termo tardios saudáveis na China: um estudo multicêntrico

OBJECTIVE: to prospectively validate a previously constructed transcutaneous bilirubin (TcB) nomogram for identifying severe hyperbilirubinemia in healthy Chinese term and late-preterm infants. METHODS: this was a multicenter study that included 9,174 healthy term and late-preterm infants in eight hospitals of China. TcB measurements were performed using a JM-103 bilirubinometer. TcB values were plotted on a previously developed TcB nomogram, to identify the predictive ability for subsequent significant hyperbilirubinemia. RESULTS: in the present study, 972 neonates (10.6%) developed significant hyperbilirubinemia. The 40th percentile of the nomogram could identify all neonates who were at risk of significant hyperbilirubinemia, but with a low positive predictive value (PPV) (18.9%). Of the 453 neonates above the 95th percentile, 275 subsequently developed significant hyperbilirubinemia, with a high PPV (60.7%), but with low sensitivity (28.3%). The 75th percentile was highly specific (81.9%) and moderately sensitive (79.8%). The area under the curve (AUC) for the TcB nomogram was 0.875. CONCLUSIONS: this study validated the previously developed TcB nomogram, which could be used to predict subsequent significant hyperbilirubinemia in healthy Chinese term and late-preterm infants. However, combining TcB nomogram and clinical risk factors could improve the predictive accuracy for severe hyperbilirubinemia, which was not assessed in the study. Further studies are necessary to confirm this combination. .

OBJETIVO: validar de forma prospectiva um nomograma de bilirrubina transcutânea (BTc) para identificar hiperbilirrubinemia grave em neonatos a termo e pré-termo tardios saudáveis na China. MÉTODOS: foi realizado um estudo multicêntrico que incluiu 9174 neonatos a termo e pré-termo tardios saudáveis em oito unidades da China. Foram realizadas dosagens de BTc utilizando um bilirrubinômetro. Os valores de BTc foram traçados em um nomograma de BTc para identificara capacidade de predição de hiperbilirrubinemia significativa. RESULTADOS: 972 recém-nascidos (10,6%) desenvolveram hiperbilirrubinemia significativa. O percentil 40 de nosso nomograma pode identificar todos os recém-nascidos com risco de hiper-bilirrubinemia significativa, porém com baixo valor preditivo positivo (VPP) (18,9%). De 453 recém-nascidos acima do percentil 95, 275 recém-nascidos desenvolveram posteriormente hiperbilirrubinemia significativa, com VPP elevado (60,7%), porém com baixa sensibilidade (28,3%). O percentil de 75 foi altamente específico (81,9%) e moderadamente sensível (79,8%). A área sob a curva (ASC) de nosso nomograma de BTc foi de 0,875. CONCLUSÕES: este estudo validou o nomograma de BTc, que pode ser utilizado para prever hiperbilirrubinemia significativa em neonatos a termo e pré-termo tardios saudáveis na China. Contudo, combinar o nomograma de BTc e fatores de risco clínicos pode melhorar a precisãode predição da hiperbilirrubinemia grave, o que não foi avaliado neste estudo. São necessários estudos adicionais para confirmar essa combinação. .

External validation of a brazilian predictive nomogram for pathologic outcomes following radical prostatectomy in tertiary teaching institutions: the USP nomograms

Purposes(a) To externally validate the Crippa and colleagues’ nomograms combining PSA, percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPBC) and biopsy Gleason score to predict organ-confined disease (OCD) in a contemporary sample of patients treated at a tertiary teaching institution. (b) To adjust such variables, resulting in predictive nomograms for OCD and seminal vesicle invasion (SVI): the USP nomograms.Materials and MethodsThe accuracy of Crippa and colleagues’ nomograms for OCD prediction was examined in 1002 men submitted to radical prostatectomy between 2005 and 2010 at the University of São Paulo (USP). ROC-derived area under the curve (AUC) and Brier scores were used to assess the discriminant properties of nomograms for OCD. Nomograms performance was explored graphically with LOESS smoothing plots. Furthermore, univariate analysis and logistic regression models targeted OCD and SVI. Variables consisted of PSA, PPBC, biopsy Gleason score and clinical stage. The resulted predictive nomograms for OCD and SVI were internally validated with bootstrapping and the same abovementioned procedures.ResultsCrippa and colleagues’ nomograms for OCD showed ROC AUC = 0.68 (CI: 0.65-0.70), Brier score = 0.17 and overestimation in LOESS plots. USP nomograms for OCD and SVI showed ROC AUC of 0.73 (CI: 0.70-0.76) and 0.77 (CI: 0.73-0.79), respectively, and Brier scores of 0.16 and 0.08, respectively. The LOESS plots showed excellent calibration for OCD and underestimation for SVI.ConclusionsCrippa and colleagues’ nomograms showed moderate discrimination and considerable OCD overestimation. USP nomograms showed good discrimination for OCD and SVI, as well as excellent calibration for OCD and SVI underestimation.

Escore clínico-patológico para predizer o risco de metástases e recorrência local em pacientes com carcinoma cortical adrenal e papel do algoritmo da reticulina na distinção entre adenomas e carcinomas corticais adrenais / Clinicopathological score for predicting the risk of metastases and local recurrence in patients with adrenal cortical carcinoma and role of the reticulin algorithm in distinguishing between adrenal cortical adenomas and carcinomas

INTRODUÇÃO: o padrão-ouro para o diagnóstico histológico dos tumores corticais adrenais (TCAs) e sua diferenciação entre adenomas e carcinomas é o sistema de Weiss, cuja aplicação é limitada pela baixa reprodutibilidade de alguns dos critérios que o compõe. Recentemente foi proposto e validado um algoritmo diagnóstico para os TCAs baseado na integridade do arcabouço de reticulina e da membrana basal. Os carcinomas adrenais são tumores raros e apresentam prognóstico reservado, mesmo nos pacientes com doença aparentemente localizada. Além do estadiamento e da extensão da ressecção cirúrgica, outros dados foram reportados na literatura como tendo importância prognóstica, tais como idade ao diagnóstico, padrão funcional, tamanho tumoral, extensão local do tumor primário e alguns achados histológicos e imuno-histoquímicos, com destaque à taxa mitótica e ao índice de Ki-67. O sistema de Weiss, embora permita o diagnóstico diferencial entre adenomas e carcinomas, não foi testado completamente como uma ferramenta para distinguir os carcinomas com boa evolução clínica daqueles com desfecho desfavorável. OBJETIVOS: o presente estudo teve como objetivo primário construir um nomograma para estimar o risco de metástases e recorrência local em portadores de carcinoma adrenal, a partir de dados clínico-patológicos. O objetivo secundário foi avaliar o desempenho do algoritmo da reticulina no diagnóstico diferencial entre adenomas e carcinomas do córtex adrenal. MÉTODOS: para a construção do nomograma, foram analisados dados clínico-patológicos de 129 portadores de carcinomas adrenais atendidos no Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo entre 1976 e 2010. A avaliação do desempenho do algoritmo da reticulina para o diagnóstico histológico dos TCAs foi feita a partir do exame de 89 lâminas (45 adenomas e 44 carcinomas adrenais)...

INTRODUCTION: The gold standard for the histological diagnosis of adrenal cortical tumors (ACTs) and for the differentiation between adenomas and carcinomas is the Weiss system, whose application is limited by poor reproducibility of some of its criteria. Recently, a diagnostic algorithm for ACT diagnosis based on the integrity of the reticulin network and the basal membrane has been proposed and validated. Adrenal carcinomas are rare tumors and have a poor prognosis, even in patients with apparently localized disease. Besides tumor staging and extent of surgical resection, other data have been reported in the literature as having prognostic importance, such as age at diagnosis, the functional pattern, tumor size, local extension of the primary tumor and some histological and immunohistochemical findings, such as the mitotic rate and the Ki-67 index. The Weiss system, while allowing the differential diagnosis between adrenal cortical adenomas and carcinomas, has not been fully tested as a tool for distinguishing carcinomas with favorable clinical outcome from those with unfavorable outcome. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective of this study was to construct a nomogram for estimating the risk of metastasis and local recurrence in patients with adrenal cortical carcinoma, based on clinical and pathological data. The secondary objective was to evaluate the performance of the reticulina algorithm in the differential diagnosis between adenomas and carcinomas of the adrenal cortex. METHODS: For the construction of the nomogram, clinical and pathological data from 129 patients with adrenal cortical carcinomas treated at the Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo between 1976 and 2010 were analyzed. The evaluation of the performance of the reticulin algorithm for the histological diagnosis of ACTs was made from the examination of 89 slides (45 adenomas and 44 adrenal carcinomas)...

Implementation of vancomycin dosing nomogram in an electronic prescribing system: an innovative tool in antibiotic stewardship

Vancomycin (VAN) is the gold standard therapy for Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections such as bacteremia and endocarditis. However, VAN suboptimal dosing for serious infections caused by S. aureus isolates that have elevated minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC), could be associated with poor outcome. Better understanding of VAN pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) has led to the creation of new recommendations with optimized dosing regimens for the treatment of MRSA infections. For severe infectious, such as pneumonia and endocarditis, a VAN serum trough concentration of 15-20 mg/L at the steady state should be targeted. The aim of this study was to show how a nomogram with updated VAN dosing was devised and how it was implemented in the electronic prescribing (e-prescribing) system of a teaching hospital. VAN loading dose and maintenance doses were calculated from a pharmacokinetic equation using basic parameters: weight, estimated creatinine clearance, as well as peak and trough serum concentrations. The implementation of the VAN dosing nomogram in the hospital e-prescribing system definitively changed the long-standing medical prescription fallacy of "same dose fits all". Finally, this computer-based electronic program has allowed a wide-ranging intervention and should be recognized as a powerful tool for implementation in antimicrobial stewardship programs.

Vancomicina (VAN) é utilizada como primeira escolha na terapia de infecções causadas por Staphylococcus aureus resistentes à meticilina (MRSA), como bacteremia e endocardite. Entretanto, o aumento na concentração inibitória mínima (CIM) de isolados de S. aureus e doses subterapêuticas de VAN podem estar associados à falha terapêutica. Para o melhor entendimento sobre o perfil farmacocinético e farmacodinâmico (PK/PD) da VAN foram elaboradas novas recomendações para terapia de infecções causadas por MRSA. Para terapia de infecções graves, como pneumonia e endocardite, a concentração sérica do vale de VAN de 15-20 mg/L no estado de equilíbrio dinâmico deve ser o alvo. O objetivo do estudo foi desenvolver um nomograma com doses atualizadas de VAN e demonstrar como ele foi implementado no sistema de prescrição eletrônica em um Hospital Universitário. As doses de ataque e manutenção foram calculadas a partir de equações farmacocinéticas, utilizando parâmetros fundamentais: peso, depuração de creatinina, concentrações séricas do pico e do vale. A implementação de um nomograma de doses de VAN em um sistema de prescrição eletrônica modificou definitivamente o inadequado hábito de que "a mesma dose cabe em todos". Finalmente, esta abrangente ferramenta tecnológica deve ser considerada como uma robusta estratégia num programa de uso racional de antibióticos.