Prediction Under Interventions: Evaluation of Counterfactual Performance Using Longitudinal Observational Data.

Predictions under interventions are estimates of what a person's risk of an outcome would be if they were to follow a particular treatment strategy, given their individual characteristics. Such predictions can give important input to medical decision-making. However, evaluating the predictive performance of interventional predictions is challenging. Standard ways of evaluating predictive performance do not apply when using observational data, because prediction under interventions involves obtaining predictions of the outcome under conditions that are different from those that are observed for a subset of individuals in the validation dataset. This work describes methods for evaluating counterfactual performance of predictions under interventions for time-to-event outcomes. This means we aim to assess how well predictions would match the validation data if all individuals had followed the treatment strategy under which predictions are made. We focus on counterfactual performance evaluation using longitudinal observational data, and under treatment strategies that involve sustaining a particular treatment regime over time. We introduce an estimation approach using artificial censoring and inverse probability weighting that involves creating a validation dataset mimicking the treatment strategy under which predictions are made. We extend measures of calibration, discrimination (c-index and cumulative/dynamic AUCt) and overall prediction error (Brier score) to allow assessment of counterfactual performance. The methods are evaluated using a simulation study, including scenarios in which the methods should detect poor performance. Applying our methods in the context of liver transplantation shows that our procedure allows quantification of the performance of predictions supporting crucial decisions on organ allocation.

The Importance of Linguistic Factors: He Likes Subject Referents.

We report the results of one visual-world eye-tracking experiment and two referent selection tasks in which we investigated the effects of information structure in the form of prosody and word order manipulation on the processing of subject pronouns er and der in German. Factors such as subjecthood, focus, and topicality, as well as order of mention have been linked to an increased probability of certain referents being selected as the pronoun's antecedent and described as increasing this referent's prominence, salience, or accessibility. The goal of this study was to find out whether pronoun processing is primarily guided by linguistic factors (e.g., grammatical role) or nonlinguistic factors (e.g., first-mention), and whether pronoun interpretation can be described in terms of referents' "prominence" / "accessibility" / "salience." The results showed an overall subject preference for er, whereas der was affected by the object role and focus marking. While focus increases the attentional load and enhances memory representation for the focused referent making the focused referent more available, ultimately it did not affect the final interpretation of er, suggesting that "prominence" or the related concepts do not explain referent selection preferences. Overall, the results suggest a primacy of linguistic factors in determining pronoun resolution.

Unraveling Temporal Dynamics of Multidimensional Statistical Learning in Implicit and Explicit Systems: An X-Way Hypothesis.

Statistical learning enables humans to involuntarily process and utilize different kinds of patterns from the environment. However, the cognitive mechanisms underlying the simultaneous acquisition of multiple regularities from different perceptual modalities remain unclear. A novel multidimensional serial reaction time task was developed to test 40 participants' ability to learn simple first-order and complex second-order relations between uni-modal visual and cross-modal audio-visual stimuli. Using the difference in reaction times between sequenced and random stimuli as the index of domain-general statistical learning, a significant difference and dissociation of learning occurred between the initial and final learning phases. Furthermore, we used a negative and positive occurrence-frequency-and-reaction-time correlation to indicate implicit and explicit learning, respectively, and found that learning simple uni-modal patterns involved an implicit-to-explicit segue, while acquiring complex cross-modal patterns required an explicit-to-implicit segue, resulting in a X-shape crossing of regularity learning. Thus, we propose an X-way hypothesis to elucidate the dynamic interplay between the implicit and explicit systems at two distinct stages when acquiring various regularities in a multidimensional probability space.

Pollution levels and probability risk assessment of potential toxic elements in soil of Pb-Zn smelting areas.

Soil pollution around Pb-Zn smelters has attracted widespread attention around the world. In this study, we compiled a database of eight potentially toxic elements (PTEs) Pb, Zn, Cd, As, Cr, Ni, Cu, and Mn in the soil of Pb-Zn smelting areas by screening the published research papers from 2000 to 2023. The pollution assessment and risk screening of eight PTEs were carried out by geo-accumulation index (Igeo), potential ecological risk index (PERI) and health risk assessment model, and Monte Carlo simulation employed to further evaluate the probabilistic health risks. The results suggested that the mean values of the eight PTEs all exceeded the corresponding values in the upper crust, and more than 60% of the study sites had serious Pb and Cd pollution (Igeo > 4), with Brazil, Belgium, China, France and Slovenia having higher levels of pollution than other regions. Besides, PTEs in smelting area caused serious ecological risk (PERI = 10912.12), in which Cd was the main contributor to PREI (86.02%). The average hazard index (HI) of the eight PTEs for adults and children was 7.19 and 9.73, respectively, and the average value of total carcinogenic risk (TCR) was 4.20 × 10-3 and 8.05 × 10-4, respectively. Pb and As are the main contributors to non-carcinogenic risk, while Cu and As are the main contributors to carcinogenic risk. The probability of non-carcinogenic risk in adults and children was 84.05% and 97.57%, while carcinogenic risk was 92.56% and 79.73%, respectively. In summary, there are high ecological and health risks of PTEs in the soil of Pb-Zn smelting areas, and Pb, Cd, As and Cu are the key elements that cause contamination and risk, which need to be paid attention to and controlled. This study is expected to provide guidance for soil remediation in Pb-Zn smelting areas.

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms and brain morphology: Addressing potential selection bias with inverse probability weighting.

The goal of this study was to examine what happens to established associations between attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms and cortical surface and thickness regions once we apply inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW) to address potential selection bias. Moreover, we illustrate how different factors that predict participation contribute to potential selection bias. Participants were 9- to 11-year-old children from the Generation R study (N = 2707). Cortical area and thickness were measured with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and ADHD symptoms with the Child Behavior Checklist. We examined how associations between ADHD symptoms and brain morphology change when we weight our sample back to either follow-up (ages 9-11), baseline (cohort at birth), or eligible (population of Rotterdam at time of recruitment). Weights were derived using IPCW or raking and missing predictors of participation used to estimate weights were imputed. Weighting analyses to baseline and eligible increased beta coefficients for the middle temporal gyrus surface area, as well as fusiform gyrus cortical thickness. Alternatively, the beta coefficient for the rostral anterior cingulate decreased. Removing one group of variables used for estimating weights resulted in the weighted regression coefficient moving closer to the unweighted regression coefficient. In addition, we found considerably different beta coefficients for most surface area regions and all thickness measures when we did not impute missing covariate data. Our findings highlight the importance of using inverse probability weighting (IPW) in the neuroimaging field, especially in the context of mental health-related research. We found that including all variables related to exposure-outcome in the IPW model and combining IPW with multiple imputations can help reduce bias. We encourage future psychiatric neuroimaging studies to define their target population, collect information on eligible but not included participants and use inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW) to reduce selection bias.

Data reduction for SVM training using density-based border identification.

Numerous classification and regression problems have extensively used Support Vector Machines (SVMs). However, the SVM approach is less practical for large datasets because of its processing cost. This is primarily due to the requirement of optimizing a quadratic programming problem to determine the decision boundary during training. As a result, methods for selecting data instances that have a better likelihood of being chosen as support vectors by the SVM algorithm have been developed to help minimize the bulk of training data. This paper presents a density-based method, called Density-based Border Identification (DBI), in addition to four different variations of the method, for the lessening of the SVM training data through the extraction of a layer of border instances. For higher-dimensional datasets, the extraction is performed on lower-dimensional embeddings obtained by Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP), and the resulting subset can be repetitively used for SVM training in higher dimensions. Experimental findings on different datasets, such as Banana, USPS, and Adult9a, have shown that the best-performing variations of the proposed method effectively reduced the size of the training data and achieved acceptable training and prediction speedups while maintaining an adequate classification accuracy compared to training on the original dataset. These results, as well as comparisons to a selection of related state-of-the-art methods from the literature, such as Border Point extraction based on Locality-Sensitive Hashing (BPLSH), Clustering-Based Convex Hull (CBCH), and Shell Extraction (SE), suggest that our proposed methods are effective and potentially useful.

[ChatGPT is an above-average student at the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Zaragoza and an excellent collaborator in the development of teaching materials]. / ChatGPT es un estudiante por encima de la media en la Facultad de Medicina de la Universidad de Zaragoza y un colaborador excelente en la elaboración de material docente.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: Artificial intelligence is fully present in our lives. In education, the possibilities of its use are endless, both for students and teachers. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The capacity of ChatGPT has been explored when solving multiple choice questions based on the exam of the subject «Anatomopathological Diagnostic and Therapeutic Procedures¼ of the first call of the 2022-23 academic year. In addition, to comparing their results with those of the rest of the students presented the probable causes of incorrect answers have been evaluated. Finally, its ability to formulate new test questions based on specific instructions has been evaluated. RESULTS: ChatGPT correctly answered 47 out of 68 questions, achieving a grade higher than the course average and median. Most failed questions present negative statements, using the words «no¼, «false¼ or «incorrect¼ in their statement. After interacting with it, the program can realize its mistake and change its initial response to the correct answer. Finally, ChatGPT can develop new questions based on a theoretical assumption or a specific clinical simulation. CONCLUSIONS: As teachers we are obliged to explore the uses of artificial intelligence and try to use it to our benefit. Carrying out tasks that involve significant consumption, such as preparing multiple-choice questions for content evaluation, is a good example.

Genetic Researchers' Use of and Interest in Research With Diverse Ancestral Groups.

Importance: Genetic researchers must have access to databases populated with data from diverse ancestral groups to ensure research is generalizable or targeted for historically excluded communities. Objective: To determine genetic researchers' interest in doing research with diverse ancestral populations, which database stewards offer adequate samples, and additional facilitators for use of diverse ancestral data. Design, Setting, and Participants: This survey study was conducted from June to December 2022 and was part of an exploratory sequential mixed-methods project in which previous qualitative results informed survey design. Eligible participants included genetic researchers who held US academic affiliations and conducted research using human genetic databases. Exposure: Internet-administered survey to genetic research professionals. Main Outcomes and Measures: The survey assessed respondents' experience and interest in research with diverse ancestral data, perceptions of adequacy of diverse data across database stewards (ie, private, government, or consortia), and identified facilitators for encouraging use of diverse ancestral data. Descriptive statistics, χ2 tests, and z tests were used to describe respondents' perspectives and experiences. Results: A total of 294 researchers (171 men [58.5%]; 121 women [41.2%]) were included in the study, resulting in a response rate of 20.4%. Across seniority level, 109 respondents (37.1%) were senior researchers, 85 (28.9%) were mid-level researchers, 71 (24.1%) were junior researchers, and 27 (9.2%) were trainees. Significantly more respondents worked with data from European ancestral populations (261 respondents [88.8%]) compared with any other ancestral population. Respondents who had not done research with Indigenous ancestral groups (210 respondents [71.4%]) were significantly more likely to report interest in doing so than not (121 respondents [41.2%] vs 89 respondents [30.3%]; P < .001). Respondents reported discrepancies in the adequacy of ancestral populations with significantly more reporting European samples as adequate across consortium (203 respondents [90.6%]), government (200 respondents [89.7%]), and private (42 respondents [80.8%]) databases, compared with any other ancestral population. There were no significant differences in reported adequacy of ancestral populations across database stewards. A majority of respondents without access to adequate diverse samples reported that increasing the ancestral diversity of existing databases (201 respondents [68.4%]) and increasing access to databases that are already diverse (166 respondents [56.5%]) would increase the likelihood of them using a more diverse sample. Conclusions and Relevance: In this survey study of US genetic researchers, respondents reported existing databases only provide adequate ancestral samples for European populations, despite their interest in other ancestral populations. These findings suggest there are specific gaps in access to and composition of genetic databases, highlighting the urgent need to boost diversity in research samples to improve inclusivity in genetic research practices.

An exhaustive ADDIS principle for online FWER control.

In this paper, we consider online multiple testing with familywise error rate (FWER) control, where the probability of committing at least one type I error will remain under control while testing a possibly infinite sequence of hypotheses over time. Currently, adaptive-discard (ADDIS) procedures seem to be the most promising online procedures with FWER control in terms of power. Now, our main contribution is a uniform improvement of the ADDIS principle and thus of all ADDIS procedures. This means, the methods we propose reject as least as much hypotheses as ADDIS procedures and in some cases even more, while maintaining FWER control. In addition, we show that there is no other FWER controlling procedure that enlarges the event of rejecting any hypothesis. Finally, we apply the new principle to derive uniform improvements of the ADDIS-Spending and ADDIS-Graph.

The World Health Organization Antenatal CorTicosteroids for Improving Outcomes in preterm Newborns (ACTION-III) Trial: study protocol for a multi-country, multi-centre, double-blind, three-arm, placebo-controlled, individually randomized trial of antenatal corticosteroids for women at high probability of late preterm birth in hospitals in low- resource countries.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth complications are the leading cause of newborn and under-5 mortality. Over 85% of all preterm births occur in the late preterm period, i.e. between 34 and < 37 weeks of gestation. Antenatal corticosteroids (ACS) prevent mortality and respiratory morbidity when administered to women at high risk of an early preterm birth, i.e. < 34 weeks' gestation. However, the benefits and risks of ACS in the late preterm period are less clear; both guidelines and practices vary between settings. Emerging evidence suggests that the benefits of ACS may be achievable at lower doses than presently used. This trial aims to determine the efficacy and safety of two ACS regimens compared to placebo, when given to women with a high probability of late preterm birth, in hospitals in low-resource countries. METHODS: WHO ACTION III trial is a parallel-group, three-arm, individually randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of two ACS regimens: dexamethasone phosphate 4 × 6 mg q12h or betamethasone phosphate 4 × 2 mg q 12 h. The trial is being conducted across seven sites in five countries-Bangladesh, India, Kenya, Nigeria, and Pakistan. Eligible women are those with a gestational age between 34 weeks 0 days and 36 weeks 5 days, who have a high probability of preterm birth between 12 h and 7 days (up to 36 weeks 6 days gestation). The primary outcome is a composite of stillbirth or neonatal death within 72 h of birth or use of newborn respiratory support within 72 h of birth or prior to discharge from hospital, whichever is earlier. Secondary outcomes include safety and health utilization measures for both women and newborns. The sample size is 13,500 women. DISCUSSION: This trial will evaluate the benefits and possible harms of ACS when used in women likely to have a late preterm birth. It will also evaluate a lower-dose ACS regimen based on literature from pharmacokinetic studies. The results of this trial will provide robust critical evidence on the safe and appropriate use of ACS in the late preterm period internationally. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN11434567 . Registered on 7 June 2021.

A New Model Including AMH Cut-off Levels to Predict Post-treatment Ovarian Function in Early Breast Cancer: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) treatment decreases fertility capacity, but unnecessary fertility preservation procedures in women who would not be infertile after treatment would be a waste of time and resources and could cause the unwarranted exposure of cancer cells to exogenous sex hormones. It has been largely shown that post-treatment ovarian reserve is directly associated with pre-treatment anti-mullerian hormone levels (AMH0). A threshold for AMH0, or a model including AMH0 and patient characteristics that could distinguish the patients who will be infertile after treatments, still needs to be defined. Accordingly, this study was performed to specifically target this high-priority concern. METHODS: Women≤45 years old with newly diagnosed non-metastatic BC were entered in this multicenter prospective cohort study. AMH0 and two-year post-treatment AMH (AMH2) were measured, and hormonal patient features were recorded as well. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, decision tree (DT), and random forest analyses were performed to find a cut-off point for AMH0 and define a model involving related features for the prediction of AMH2. RESULTS: The data from 84 patients were analyzed. ROC curve analysis revealed that AMH0>3 ng/mL (Area under the curve=0.69, 95% CI: 0.54‒0.84) was the best indicator for predicting AMH2≥0.7 (sensitivity=79%, specificity=60%). The best model detected by DT and random forest for predicting an AMH2>0.7 with a probability of 93% consisted of a combination of AMH0>3.3, menarche age<14, and age<31. CONCLUSION: This combination model can be used to withhold fertility preservation procedures in BC patients. Performing larger studies is suggested to further test this model.

Inference of genomic landscapes using ordered Hidden Markov Models with emission densities (oHMMed).

BACKGROUND: Genomes are inherently inhomogeneous, with features such as base composition, recombination, gene density, and gene expression varying along chromosomes. Evolutionary, biological, and biomedical analyses aim to quantify this variation, account for it during inference procedures, and ultimately determine the causal processes behind it. Since sequential observations along chromosomes are not independent, it is unsurprising that autocorrelation patterns have been observed e.g., in human base composition. In this article, we develop a class of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) called oHMMed (ordered HMM with emission densities, the corresponding R package of the same name is available on CRAN): They identify the number of comparably homogeneous regions within autocorrelated observed sequences. These are modelled as discrete hidden states; the observed data points are realisations of continuous probability distributions with state-specific means that enable ordering of these distributions. The observed sequence is labelled according to the hidden states, permitting only neighbouring states that are also neighbours within the ordering of their associated distributions. The parameters that characterise these state-specific distributions are inferred. RESULTS: We apply our oHMMed algorithms to the proportion of G and C bases (modelled as a mixture of normal distributions) and the number of genes (modelled as a mixture of poisson-gamma distributions) in windows along the human, mouse, and fruit fly genomes. This results in a partitioning of the genomes into regions by statistically distinguishable averages of these features, and in a characterisation of their continuous patterns of variation. In regard to the genomic G and C proportion, this latter result distinguishes oHMMed from segmentation algorithms based in isochore or compositional domain theory. We further use oHMMed to conduct a detailed analysis of variation of chromatin accessibility (ATAC-seq) and epigenetic markers H3K27ac and H3K27me3 (modelled as a mixture of poisson-gamma distributions) along the human chromosome 1 and their correlations. CONCLUSIONS: Our algorithms provide a biologically assumption free approach to characterising genomic landscapes shaped by continuous, autocorrelated patterns of variation. Despite this, the resulting genome segmentation enables extraction of compositionally distinct regions for further downstream analyses.

Dynamics of Information Flow and Task Allocation of Social Insect Colonies: Impacts of Spatial Interactions and Task Switching.

Models of social interaction dynamics have been powerful tools for understanding the efficiency of information spread and the robustness of task allocation in social insect colonies. How workers spatially distribute within the colony, or spatial heterogeneity degree (SHD), plays a vital role in contact dynamics, influencing information spread and task allocation. We used agent-based models to explore factors affecting spatial heterogeneity and information flow, including the number of task groups, variation in spatial arrangements, and levels of task switching, to study: (1) the impact of multiple task groups on SHD, contact dynamics, and information spread, and (2) the impact of task switching on SHD and contact dynamics. Both models show a strong linear relationship between the dynamics of SHD and contact dynamics, which exists for different initial conditions. The multiple-task-group model without task switching reveals the impacts of the number and spatial arrangements of task locations on information transmission. The task-switching model allows task-switching with a probability through contact between individuals. The model indicates that the task-switching mechanism enables a dynamical state of task-related spatial fidelity at the individual level. This spatial fidelity can assist the colony in redistributing their workforce, with consequent effects on the dynamics of spatial heterogeneity degree. The spatial fidelity of a task group is the proportion of workers who perform that task and have preferential walking styles toward their task location. Our analysis shows that the task switching rate between two tasks is an exponentially decreasing function of the spatial fidelity and contact rate. Higher spatial fidelity leads to more agents aggregating to task location, reducing contact between groups, thus making task switching more difficult. Our results provide important insights into the mechanisms that generate spatial heterogeneity and deepen our understanding of how spatial heterogeneity impacts task allocation, social interaction, and information spread.

Comparing surgical and endoscopic resection approaches for colorectal neuroendocrine tumors within the diameter range of 10-20mm: an inverse probability weighting analysis based on the SEER database.

Background: Currently, the primary treatment modalities for colorectal neuroendocrine tumors (CRNET) with a diameter between 10mm and 20mm are surgical resection (SR) and endoscopic resection (ER). However, it remains unclear which surgical approach yields the greatest survival benefit for patients. Methods: This study included data from patients diagnosed with CRNET with tumor diameters ranging from 10mm to 20mm between the years 2004 and 2019, obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were categorized into ER and SR groups based on the respective surgical approaches. Inverse probability weighting (IPTW) was employed to mitigate selection bias. Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank tests were utilized to estimate overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Cox regression analysis (univariate and multivariate) was performed to evaluate potential factors influencing survival. Results: A total of 292 CRNET patients were included in this study (ER group: 108 individuals, SR group: 184 individuals). Prior to IPTW adjustment, Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazard regression analysis demonstrated that the OS and CSS of the SR group were inferior to those of the ER group. However, after IPTW adjustment, no statistically significant differences in prognosis were observed between the two groups. Subgroup analyses revealed that patients with muscular invasion, positive lymph nodes, or distant metastasis derived greater survival benefits from SR. Significant differences in OS and CSS between the two groups were also observed across different age groups. Conclusion: For patients with mucosal-limited lesions and without local lymph node or distant metastasis, ER is the preferred surgical approach. However, for patients with muscular invasion or positive lymph nodes/distant metastasis, SR offers a better prognosis. The choice of surgical approach should be based on the specific clinical characteristics of patients within different subgroups.

Shape restricted additive hazards models: Monotone, unimodal, and U-shape hazard functions.

We consider estimation of the semiparametric additive hazards model with an unspecified baseline hazard function where the effect of a continuous covariate has a specific shape but otherwise unspecified. Such estimation is particularly useful for a unimodal hazard function, where the hazard is monotone increasing and monotone decreasing with an unknown mode. A popular approach of the proportional hazards model is limited in such setting due to the complicated structure of the partial likelihood. Our model defines a quadratic loss function, and its simple structure allows a global Hessian matrix that does not involve parameters. Thus, once the global Hessian matrix is computed, a standard quadratic programming method can be applicable by profiling all possible locations of the mode. However, the quadratic programming method may be inefficient to handle a large global Hessian matrix in the profiling algorithm due to a large dimensionality, where the dimension of the global Hessian matrix and number of hypothetical modes are the same order as the sample size. We propose the quadratic pool adjacent violators algorithm to reduce computational costs. The proposed algorithm is extended to the model with a time-dependent covariate with monotone or U-shape hazard function. In simulation studies, our proposed method improves computational speed compared to the quadratic programming method, with bias and mean square error reductions. We analyze data from a recent cardiovascular study.

On the distribution of the power function for the scale parameter of exponential families.

The expected value of the standard power function of a test, computed with respect to a design prior distribution, is often used to evaluate the probability of success of an experiment. However, looking only at the expected value might be reductive. Instead, the whole probability distribution of the power function induced by the design prior can be exploited. In this article we consider one-sided testing for the scale parameter of exponential families and we derive general unifying expressions for cumulative distribution and density functions of the random power. Sample size determination criteria based on alternative summaries of these functions are discussed. The study sheds light on the relevance of the choice of the design prior in order to construct a successful experiment.

An efficient Bayesian observer model of attractive and repulsive temporal context effects when perceiving multistable dot lattices.

In multistable dot lattices, the orientation we perceive is attracted toward the orientation we perceived in the immediately preceding stimulus and repelled from the orientation for which most evidence was present previously (Van Geert, Moors, Haaf, & Wagemans, 2022). Theoretically-inspired models have been proposed to explain the co-occurrence of attractive and repulsive context effects in multistable dot lattice tasks, but these models artificially induced an influence of the previous trial on the current one without detailing the process underlying such an influence (Gepshtein & Kubovy, 2005; Schwiedrzik et al., 2014). We conducted a simulation study to test whether the observed attractive and repulsive context effects could be explained with an efficient Bayesian observer model (Wei & Stocker, 2015). This model assumes variable encoding precision of orientations in line with their frequency of occurrence (i.e., efficient encoding) and takes the dissimilarity between stimulus space and sensory space into account. An efficient Bayesian observer model including both a stimulus and a perceptual level was needed to explain the co-occurrence of both attractive and repulsive temporal context effects. Furthermore, this model could reproduce the empirically observed strong positive correlation between individuals' attractive and repulsive effects (Van Geert et al., 2022), by assuming a positive correlation between temporal integration constants at the stimulus and the perceptual level. To conclude, the study brings evidence that efficient encoding and likelihood repulsion on the stimulus level can explain the repulsive context effect, whereas perceptual prior attraction can explain the attractive temporal context effect when perceiving multistable dot lattices.

Comparative stability analysis of Indonesian banks: Markov Switching-Dynamic Regression for Islamic and conventional sectors.

The banking industry necessitates implementing an early warning system to effectively identify the factors that impact bank managers and enable them to make informed decisions, thereby mitigating systemic risk. Identifying factors that influence banks in times of stability and crisis is crucial, as it ultimately contributes to developing an improved early warning system. This study undertakes a comparative analysis of the stability of Indonesian Islamic and conventional banking across distinct economic regimes-crisis and stability. We analyze monthly banking data from December 2007 to November 2022 using the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression technique. The study focuses on conducting a comparative analysis between Islamic banks, represented by Islamic Commercial Bank (ICB) and Islamic Rural Bank (IRB), and conventional banks, represented by the Conventional Commercial Bank (CCB) and Conventional Rural Bank (CRB). The findings reveal that both Islamic and conventional banks exhibit a higher probability of being in a stable regime than a crisis regime. Notably, Islamic banks demonstrate a greater propensity to remain in a stable regime than their conventional counterparts. However, in a crisis regime, the likelihood of recovery for Sharia-compliant institutions is lower than for conventional banks. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that larger banks exhibit higher stability than their smaller counterparts regarding assets and size. This study pioneers a comprehensive comparison of the Z-score, employed as a proxy for stability, between two distinct classifications of Indonesian banks: Sharia (ICB and IRB) and conventional (CCB and CRB). The result is expected to improve our awareness of the elements that affect the stability of Islamic and conventional banking in Indonesia, leading to a deeper comprehension of their dynamics.

Exposure Assessment of Pesticides in Surface Waters of Ontario, Canada Reveals Low Probability of Exceeding Acute Regulatory Thresholds.

The objectives of this study were to: (1) characterize the exposure of aquatic ecosystems in Southern Ontario, Canada to pesticides between 2002 and 2016 by constructing environmental exposure distributions (EEDs), including censored data; and (2) predict the probability of exceeding acute regulatory guidelines. Surface water samples were collected over a 15-year period by Environment and Climate Change Canada. The dataset contained 167 compounds, sampled across 114 sites, with a total of 2,213 samples. There were 67,920 total observations of which 55,058 were non-detects (81%), and 12,862 detects (19%). The most commonly detected compound was atrazine, with a maximum concentration of 18,600 ngL- 1 and ~ 4% chance of exceeding an acute guideline (1,000 ngL- 1) in rivers and streams. Using Southern Ontario as a case study, this study provides insight into the risk that pesticides pose to aquatic ecosystems and the utility of EEDs that include censored data for the purpose of risk assessment.

Prior probability cues bias sensory encoding with increasing task exposure.

When observers have prior knowledge about the likely outcome of their perceptual decisions, they exhibit robust behavioural biases in reaction time and choice accuracy. Computational modelling typically attributes these effects to strategic adjustments in the criterion amount of evidence required to commit to a choice alternative - usually implemented by a starting point shift - but recent work suggests that expectations may also fundamentally bias the encoding of the sensory evidence itself. Here, we recorded neural activity with EEG while participants performed a contrast discrimination task with valid, invalid, or neutral probabilistic cues across multiple testing sessions. We measured sensory evidence encoding via contrast-dependent steady-state visual-evoked potentials (SSVEP), while a read-out of criterion adjustments was provided by effector-selective mu-beta band activity over motor cortex. In keeping with prior modelling and neural recording studies, cues evoked substantial biases in motor preparation consistent with criterion adjustments, but we additionally found that the cues produced a significant modulation of the SSVEP during evidence presentation. While motor preparation adjustments were observed in the earliest trials, the sensory-level effects only emerged with extended task exposure. Our results suggest that, in addition to strategic adjustments to the decision process, probabilistic information can also induce subtle biases in the encoding of the evidence itself.