Cancer and circulatory disease risks for the largest solar particle events in the space age.

In this paper we use the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR version 2022) model to predict cancer and circulatory disease risks using energy spectra representing the largest SPE's observed in the space age. Because tissue dose-rates behind shielding for large SPE's lead to low dose-rates (<0.2 Gy/h) we consider the integrated risk for several historical periods of high solar activity, including July-November, 1960 events and August-October 1989 events along with the February 1956 and August 1972 events. The galactic cosmic ray (GCR) contribution to risks is considered in predictions. Results for these largest historical events show risk of exposure induced death (REID) are mitigated to < 1.2 % with a 95 % confidence interval with passive radiation shielding of 20 g/cm2 aluminum, while larger amounts would support the application of the ALARA principle. Annual GCR risks are predicted to surpass the risks from large SPEs by ∼30 g/cm2 of aluminum shielding.

Ground-based passive generation of Solar Particle Event spectra: Planning and manufacturing of a 3D-printed modulator.

The generation of space radiation on Earth is essential to study and predict the effects of radiation on space travelers, electronics, or materials during future long-term space missions. Next to the heavy ions of the galactic cosmic rays, solar particle events play a major role concerning the radiation risk in space, which consist of intermediate-energy protons with broad spectra and energies up to a few hundred MeV. This work describes an approach for the ground-based generation of solar particle events. As a proof of principle, a passive beam modulator with a specific funnel-shaped periodic structure was designed and is used to convert a monoenergetic proton beam into a spectral proton energy distribution, mimicking a solar particle event from August 1972, which is known as one of the strongest recorded SPE events. The required proton beam of 220 MeV can be generated at many existing particle accelerators at research or particle therapy facilities. The planning, manufacturing and testing of the modulator is described step by step. Its correct manufacturing and the characteristics of the solar particle event simulator are tested experimentally and by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Future modulators will follow the same concept with minor adjustments such as a larger lateral extension. As of now, the presented beam modulator is available to the research community to conduct experiments at GSI for exposure under solar particle event conditions. In addition, researchers can use and apply the described concept to design and print their individualized modulator to reproduce any desired solar particle event spectrum or request the presented modulator geometry from the authors.

Association between gestational exposure to solar activity and pregnancy loss using live births from a Massachusetts-based medical center.

BACKGROUND: Solar activity has been linked to biological mechanisms important to pregnancy, including folate and melatonin levels and inflammatory markers. Thus, we aimed to investigate the association between gestational solar activity and pregnancy loss. METHODS: Our study included 71,963 singleton births conceived in 2002-2016 and delivered at an academic medical center in Eastern Massachusetts. We studied several solar activity metrics, including sunspot number, Kp index, and ultraviolet radiation, with data from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We used a novel time series analytic approach to investigate associations between each metric from conception through 24 weeks of gestation and the number of live birth-identified conceptions (LBICs) -the total number of conceptions in each week that result in a live birth. This approach fits distributed lag models to data on LBICs, adjusted for time trends, and allows us to infer associations between pregnancy exposure and pregnancy loss. RESULTS: Overall, the association between solar activity during pregnancy and pregnancy loss varied by exposure metric. For sunspot number, we found that an interquartile range increase in sunspot number (78·7 sunspots) in all of the first 24 weeks of pregnancy was associated with 14·0 (95% CI: 6·5, 21·3) more pregnancy losses out of the average 92 LBICs in a week, and exposure in weeks ten through thirteen was identified as a critical window. Although not statistically significant, higher exposure to Kp index and to UV radiation across all 24 weeks of pregnancy was associated with more and less pregnancy losses, respectively. CONCLUSION: While exposure to certain metrics of solar activity (i.e., sunspot number) throughout the first 24 weeks of pregnancy may be associated with pregnancy losses, exposure to other metrics were not. Solar activity is a complex phenomenon, and more studies are needed to clarify underlying pathways.

Observation of the radiation environment and solar energetic particle events in Mars orbit in May 2018- June 2022.

The dosimeter Liulin-MO for measuring the radiation environment onboard the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO) is a module of the Fine Resolution Epithermal Neutron Detector (FREND). Here we present results from measurements of the charged particle fluxes, dose rates and estimation of dose equivalent rates at ExoMars TGO Mars science orbit, provided by Liulin-MO from May 2018 to June 2022. The period of measurements covers the declining and minimum phases of the solar activity in 24th solar cycle and the rising phase of the 25th cycle. Compared are the radiation values of the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) obtained during the different phases of the solar activity. The highest values of the dose rate and flux from GCR are registered from March to August 2020. At the minimum of 24th and transition to 25th solar cycle the dose rate from GCR is 15.9 ± 1.6 µGy h-1, particle flux is 3.3 ± 0.17 cm-2s-1, dose equivalent rate is 72.3 ± 14.4 µSv h-1. Since September 2020 the dose rate and flux of GCR decrease. Particular attention is drawn to the observation of the solar energetic particle (SEP) events in July, September and October 2021, February and March 2022 as well as their effects on the radiation environment on TGO during the corresponding periods. The SEP event during15-19 February 2022 is the most powerful event observed in our data. The SEP dose during this event is 13.8 ± 1.4 mGy (in Si), the SEP dose equivalent is 21.9 ± 4.4 mSv. SEP events recorded in Mars orbit are related to coronal mass ejections (CME) observed by SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. Compared are the time profiles of the count rates measured by Liulin-MO, the neutron detectors of FREND and neutron detectors of the High Energy Neutron Detector (HEND) aboard Mars Odyssey during 15-19 February 2022 event. The data obtained is important for the knowledge of the radiation environment around Mars, regarding future manned and robotic flights to the planet. The data for SEP events in Mars orbit during July 2021-March 2022 contribute to the details on the solar activity at a time when Mars is on the opposite side of the Sun from Earth.

Active radiation measurements over one solar cycle with two DOSTEL instruments in the Columbus laboratory of the International Space Station.

Two DOSimetry TELescopes (DOSTELs) have been measuring the radiation environment in the Columbus module of the International Space Station (ISS) since 2009 in the frame of the DOSIS and DOSIS 3D projects. Both instruments have measured the charged particle flux rate and dose rates in a telescope geometry of two planar silicon detectors. The radiation environment in the ISS orbit is mostly composed by galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and its secondary radiation and protons from the inner radiation belt in the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) with sporadic contributions of solar energetic particles at high latitudes. The data presented in this work cover two solar activity minima and corresponding GCR intensity maxima in 2009 and 2020 and the solar activity maximum and corresponding GCR intensity minimum in 2014/2015. Average dose rates measured in the Columbus laboratory in the ISS orbit from GCR and SAA are presented separately. The data is analyzed with respect to the effective magnetic shielding and grouped into different cut-off rigidity intervals. Using only measurements in magnetically unshielded regions at low cut-off rigidity and applying a factor for the geometrical shielding of the Earth, absorbed dose rates and dose equivalent rates in near-Earth interplanetary space are estimated for the years 2009 to 2022.

Radiation measurements in the International Space Station, Columbus module, in 2020-2022 with the LIDAL detector.

The Light Ion Detector for ALTEA (LIDAL) is a new instrument designed to measure flux, energy spectra and Time of Flight of ions in a space habitat. It was installed in the International Space Station (Columbus) on January 19, 2020 and it is still operating. This paper presents the results of LIDAL measurements in the first 17 months of operation (01/2020-05/2022). Particle flux, dose rate, Time of Flight and spectra are presented and studied in the three ISS orthogonal directions and in the different geomagnetic regions (high latitude, low latitude, and South Atlantic Anomaly, SAA). The results are consistent with previous measurements. Dose rates range between 1.8 nGy/s and 2.4 nGy/s, flux between 0.21 particles/(sr cm2 s) and 0.32 particles/(sr cm2 s) as measured across time and directions during the full orbit. These data offer insights concerning the radiation measurements in the ISS and demonstrate the capabilities of LIDAL as a unique tool for the measurement of space radiation in space habitats, also providing novel information relevant to assess radiation risks for astronauts.

Latitudinal effect on the position of Regener-Pfotzer maximum investigated by balloon flight HEMERA 2019 in Sweden and balloon flights FIK in Czechia.

When primary space radiation particles enter into the atmosphere of the Earth, they generate showers of secondary radiation. The intensity of secondary radiation reaches its maximum, called the Regener-Pfotzer maximum; its exact position depends on the geomagnetic effective vertical cut-off rigidity, the phase of the solar cycle and also on the type of detected particles. In this paper, several balloon flight experiments are described focusing on the study of the latitudinal effect on the position of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum. Altitude profile of ionization in the atmosphere was measured using radiation detectors flown during several flights at locations with different effective vertical cut-off rigidities (flight HEMERA over Sweden and flights FIK-5 and FIK-6 over Czech Republic). The measured results are supplemented also with simulations using EXPACS 4.11 and the variation of obtained positions of Regener-Pfotzer maximum is discussed.

Associations of solar activity and related exposures with fetal growth.

BACKGROUND: Solar and geomagnetic activity have been shown to suppress melatonin and to degrade folate levels, important hormones for fetal development. We examined whether solar and geomagnetic activity were associated with fetal growth. METHODS: We included 9573 singleton births with 26,879 routine ultrasounds at an academic medical center in Eastern Massachusetts from 2011 through 2016. Sunspot number and Kp index were obtained from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Three exposure windows were considered, including the first 16 weeks of pregnancy, one month prior to fetal growth measurement, and conception until fetal growth measurement (cumulative). Ultrasound scans from which we extracted biparietal diameter, head circumference, femur length, and abdominal circumference measurements were categorized as anatomic (<24 weeks' gestation) or growth scans (≥24 weeks' gestation) based on clinical practice. Ultrasound parameters and birth weight were standardized, and linear mixed models adjusted for long-term trends were fitted. RESULTS: Prenatal exposures were positively associated with larger head parameters measured <24 weeks' gestation, negatively associated with smaller fetal parameters measured ≥24 weeks' gestation, and not associated with birth weight. The strongest associations were observed for cumulative exposure in growth scans, where an interquartile range increase in sunspot number (32.87 sunspots) was associated with a -0.17 (95 % CI: -0.26, -0.08), -0.25 (-0.36, -0.15), and -0.13 (95 % CI: -0.23, -0.03) difference in mean biparietal diameter, head circumference, and femur length z-score, respectively. An interquartile range increase in cumulative Kp index (0.49) was associated with a -0.11 (95 % CI: -0.22, -0.01) and -0.11 (95 % CI: -0.20, -0.02) difference in mean head circumference and abdominal circumference z-score, respectively, in growth scans. CONCLUSIONS: Solar and geomagnetic activity were associated with fetal growth. Future studies are needed to better understand the impact of these natural phenomena on clinical endpoints.

Sunspot activity and birth defects among Texas births (1999-2016).

BACKGROUND: Building on findings that linked higher levels of sunspot (SS) activity with a range of health and adverse birth outcomes, we sought to understand how SS activity over a 17-year time period may be correlated with the occurrence of birth defects. METHODS: Data from the Texas Birth Defects Registry, vital events from the Texas Center for Health Statistics, and mean monthly numbers of sunspots from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration were utilized. Poisson regression was used to calculate crude/adjusted prevalence ratios (cPRs/aPRs) and 95% confidence intervals for three quartiles (Q) of increasing SS activity (compared to a referent of low activity) and 44 birth defects (31 non-cardiac; 13 cardiac) with estimated dates of conception from 1998 to 2016. RESULTS: We found moderately protective aPRs (range: 0.60-0.89) in a little over half of the case groups examined in our quartiles of higher SS activity (19 non-cardiac; 6 cardiac), after adjusting for maternal age, race/ethnicity, and education. Particularly protective aPRs in the highest SS quartiles (Q3-4) were noted for: anophthalmia, cataract, gastroschisis, trisomy 18, ventricular septal defects, atrial septal defects, and pulmonary valve atresia or stenosis. Conversely, modestly elevated aPRs were noted for two defect groups (agenesis, aplasia, and hypoplasia of the lung and microcephaly [Q2-3]). Following an additional adjustment of year of conception, results remained similar although many of the estimates were attenuated. CONCLUSION: The seemingly protective associations between increasing SS activity may be an artifact of increasing spontaneous abortions that occur following conception during these periods of heightened SS activity.

The role of teleconnections and solar activity on the discharge of tropical river systems within the Niger basin.

The behavior of tropical river systems is driven by some internal and external factors. Understanding the role of these external forces, such as large-scale oscillations, on river discharge will provide insight into their dynamic complexities and modelling. In this study, the role of teleconnection patterns and solar activity on river discharges within the Niger basin was considered using both linear (correlation) and nonlinear (multifractal and joint recurrence analysis) statistical approaches. Correlation analysis suggests the existence of a linear relationship between tropical teleconnection patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans with river discharge in the Niger basin. Nonlinear relationships were investigated using multifractal formalism and joint recurrence quantification analysis. A strong nonlinear relationship was observed between the teleconnection patterns and river discharge in Diola while other stations (Koulikoro, Ansongo, Niamey, Mopti, Kirango) showed no such relationship. The observation at Diola is attributed to its location (coastal) among other things. The multifractal strengths were found in the range of 0.58-2.86, suggesting fractal correlations between the parameters. There was no conclusive evidence of a linear and nonlinear relationship between solar activity and tropical river discharge within the Niger basin.

Intense solar activity reduces urinary 6-sulfatoxymelatonin in patients with COPD.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the link between solar activity and variations in melatonin. In this study, we investigated if melatonin's major urinary metabolite, urinary 6-sulfatoxymelatonin (aMT6s), is lowest under periods of intense solar activity. METHODS: We investigated associations between high-energy solar particle events [Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) mass, speed and energy] on creatinine-adjusted aMT6s (aMT6sr) concentrations in 140 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using up to four seasonal urine samples (n = 440). Mixed effect models with a random intercept for each subject were used to estimate associations, including effect modification attributable to diabetes, obesity, and reduced pulmonary function. RESULTS: Higher values of CME were associated with reduced aMT6sr concentrations, with stronger associations in patients with diabetes. An interquartile range (IQR) increase in natural log CMEspeed averaged through two days before urine collection was associated with a reduction of 9.3% aMT6sr (95%CI: - 17.1%, - 0.8%) in aMT6sr. There was a greater reduction in aMT6sr in patients with diabetes (- 24.5%; 95%CI: - 35.9%, - 11.6%). In patients without diabetes there was no meaningful association (- 2.2%; 95%CI: - 12%, 8.4%). There were similar associations with CMEenergy and CMEmass. There was no effect modification attributable to reduced pulmonary function or obesity. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study in patients with COPD to demonstrate strong detrimental impact of high-energy solar particle events on aMT6sr, with greater associations in patients with diabetes. Since melatonin is an anti-oxidant, it is possible that adverse effects of intense solar activity may be attributable to a reduction in circulating melatonin and that patients with both COPD and diabetes may be more susceptible.

Space weather phenomena on heart rate: a study in the Greek region.

Many scientific investigations have focused on how space weather phenomena, taking place in the vicinity of the Earth, may influence different aspects of life on Earth and presumably human health itself. From 2005, the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens has established an important position in the field of these investigations by collaborating with various scientists and Institutes, both international and domestic, in different heliobiological projects. In this work, the Cosmic Ray Group of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens has co-operated with the medical staff from different hospitals and clinics around the country so as to develop large records of medical data (heart rate) which covers a long time period. These data are analyzed in regard to physical activity, either on a daily basis or on different levels of geomagnetic disturbances and variations of the cosmic ray intensity using the ANalysis Of Variance (ANOVA) and the multiple linear regression analysis. Results suggest that space weather phenomena may be related to heart rate variability, i.e., heart rate is statistically significantly effected either by variations of cosmic rays intensity or geomagnetic activity.

Unknown effects of daily-scale solar activity on the plant growth: Data from 6-year growth monitoring of Sphagnum riparium.

The influence of solar activity on plant growth has been studied for over 100 years, however, this phenomenon is still poorly understood on a daily scale. The data from extensive monitoring of the growth of peat moss Sphagnum riparium, which we are conducting in the mires of Karelia (Russia), may shed light on this issue. During the 6 years of observation, 161,190 shoots were measured, and 1075 growth rates were obtained. Considering together the growth rates with the sunspot number and involving data on seasonal temperature, we found previously unknown effects of daily-scale solar activity on plant growth. It was found that the sunspot number weakly but significantly inhibits the growth of Sphagnum. The extreme sunspot number in the 4 days before the growth rate values have a stronger influence. The involvement of temperature data showed that inhibition in growth is observed only in the temperature range from 6.7°C to 15.3°C and disappears beyond these limits. In addition, the data obtained showed that the influence of sunspot number on the growth of Sphagnum is progressively increasing along the gradient from the minimum to the maximum of the 11-year solar cycle. The study provides one of the first results on the effect of solar activity on plant growth on a daily scale. The results expand our knowledge of the biological effects of solar activity. Indirectly, they can also be useful to better our understanding of the ozone layer's involvement in this process.

Prominence of the training data preparation in geomagnetic storm prediction using deep neural networks.

The direct interaction between large-scale interplanetary disturbances emitted from the Sun and the Earth's magnetosphere can lead to geomagnetic storms representing the most severe space weather events. In general, the geomagnetic activity is measured by the Dst index. Consequently, its accurate prediction represents one of the main subjects in space weather studies. In this scenario, we try to predict the Dst index during quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions using the interplanetary magnetic field and the solar wind parameters. To accomplish this task, we analyzed the response of a newly developed neural network using interplanetary parameters as inputs. We strongly demonstrated that the training procedure strictly changes the capability of giving correct forecasting of stormy and disturbed geomagnetic periods. Indeed, the strategy proposed for creating datasets for training and validation plays a fundamental role in guaranteeing good performances of the proposed neural network architecture.

Spatiotemporal hysteresis distribution and decomposition of solar activities and climatic oscillation during 1900-2020.

Solar radiation is the external driving force of the Earth's climate system. In different spatial and temporal scales, meteorological elements have different responses and lag periods to solar activity (SA), climatic oscillation (CO), geographic factors (GF) and other influencing factors. However, such studies are not abundant and in-depth in the world. To further understand the "solar-climate-water resource" system, this study considers China as the study area and investigates the monthly data of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) during 1900-2020 that were obtained from 3836 grid stations. The strong interaction and lag distribution between T or P with SA and CO were studied and influence weights of SA, CO, and geographical factors (GF) of each grid station were calculated. A multivariate hysteretic decomposition model was established to simulate and quantitatively decompose the periodic lag considering the factors of the earth's revolution. It is found that the strong interaction/lag periods obtained in a long-time scale can be decomposed into several periods shorter than the SA period. The distribution of strong interaction/lag periods is nested with topography and echoes with cities. The underlying surface conditions and urbanization are also important factors affecting the T and P lag. There are two distinct dividing lines in the lag period and influencing factor pattern of T and P. The T dividing line moves through valleys where water or mountain ranges meet, where the gap facilitates monsoon movement across regions, while the P dividing line is a zone of dramatic terrain, where tall mountains block water vapor transport. In the lag trend of T, the northern region of China has the longest lag period, and the lag period of surrounding regions tends to converge to the northern region. The lag period caused by SN in southwest China is larger than that in northwest China, while the lag effect of CO is opposite in the above two regions. The lag trend of P also has the above characteristics, but the difference is that the lag period in central China is the longest.

About 4-Day Rhythm of Proliferative Activity of L-929 Cells in Culture Correlates with the Intensity of Secondary Cosmic Radiation Fluctuations.

The dynamics of proliferative activity of the L-929 cell culture of mouse fibroblast-like cells in the phase of logarithmic growth was compared with some heliogeophysical parameters (Ap and ULF indexes of geomagnetic activity, vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field, and intensity of fluctuations of secondary cosmic radiation estimated by the neutron monitoring near the Earth's surface). Among the considered heliogeophysical parameters, only the magnitude of fluctuations of minute-to-minute changes in the neutron monitor indicator reliably and negatively correlates with the rate of cell culture reproduction. Considering that the amplitude of secondary cosmic fluctuations is about 5%, which is 0.1% of the total ray flux, and proliferative activity varies in the range of 30-50%, the probability of a direct biotrophic effect of this physical factor is extremely low. It seems likely that proliferative activity of L-929 cell culture is directly affected by another environmental factor, the marker of which is the intensity of neutron counting rate fluctuations.

Tree-rings reveal two strong solar proton events in 7176 and 5259 BCE.

The Sun sporadically produces eruptive events leading to intense fluxes of solar energetic particles (SEPs) that dramatically disrupt the near-Earth radiation environment. Such events have been directly studied for the last decades but little is known about the occurrence and magnitude of rare, extreme SEP events. Presently, a few events that produced measurable signals in cosmogenic radionuclides such as 14C, 10Be and 36Cl have been found. Analyzing annual 14C concentrations in tree-rings from Switzerland, Germany, Ireland, Russia, and the USA we discovered two spikes in atmospheric 14C occurring in 7176 and 5259 BCE. The ~2% increases of atmospheric 14C recorded for both events exceed all previously known 14C peaks but after correction for the geomagnetic field, they are comparable to the largest event of this type discovered so far at 775 CE. These strong events serve as accurate time markers for the synchronization with floating tree-ring and ice core records and provide critical information on the previous occurrence of extreme solar events which may threaten modern infrastructure.

Long term food stability for extended space missions: a review.

At present, human spaceflight is confined to low Earth orbit but, in future, will again go to the Moon and, beyond, to Mars. The provision of food during these extended missions will need to meet the special nutritional and psychosocial needs of the crew. Terrestrially grown and processed food products, currently provided for consumption by astronauts/cosmonauts, have not yet been systematically optimised to maintain their nutritional integrity and reach the shelf-life necessary for extended space voyages. Notably, space food provisions for Mars exploration will be subject to extended exposure to galactic cosmic radiation and solar particle events, the impact of which is not fully understood. In this review, we provide a summary of the existing knowledge about current space food products, the impact of radiation and storage on food composition, the identification of radiolytic biomarkers and identify gaps in our knowledge that are specific in relation to the effect of the cosmic radiation on food in space.