Projections of HIV infections and AIDS cases to the year 2000

ABSTRACT

After the recognition of AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) in the early 1980s, uncertainty about the present and future dimensions of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) infection led to the development of many models to estimate current and future numbers of HIV infections and AIDS cases. The Global Programme on AIDS (GPA) of the World Health Organization (WHO) has developed and AIDS projection model which relies on available HIV seroprevalence data and on the annual rate of progression from HIV infection to AIDS for use in areas where reporting of AIDS cases is incomplete, and where scant data are available to quantity biological and human behavioural variables