The 2023 extreme coastal El Niño: Atmospheric and air-sea coupling mechanisms.

In the boreal spring of 2023, an extreme coastal El Niño struck the coastal regions of Peru and Ecuador, causing devastating rainfalls, flooding, and record dengue outbreaks. Observations and ocean model experiments reveal that northerly alongshore winds and westerly wind anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, initially associated with a record-strong Madden-Julian Oscillation and cyclonic disturbance off Peru in March, drove the coastal warming through suppressed coastal upwelling and downwelling Kelvin waves. Atmospheric model simulations indicate that the coastal warming in turn favors the observed wind anomalies over the far eastern tropical Pacific by triggering atmospheric deep convection. This implies a positive feedback between the coastal warming and the winds, which further amplifies the coastal warming. In May, the seasonal background cooling precludes deep convection and the coastal Bjerknes feedback, leading to the weakening of the coastal El Niño. This coastal El Niño is rare but predictable at 1 month lead, which is useful to protect lives and properties.

Steven-Jonhson Syndrome in a Patient With Dengue Infection in Peru: A Case Report.

Stevens-Johnson syndrome is an infrequent condition affecting the skin and mucous membranes, it involves cutaneous detachment with high mortality without adequate treatment. We present the case of a 40-year-old male with a history of epilepsy treated with valproic acid and lamotrigine, previously diagnosed with dengue. Evaluation showed erythematous blisters on skin and mucosa with bleeding and desquamation, covering 10% of the body surface. The patient progressed favorably with the medical care received. Stevens-Johnson syndrome should be studied in association with arboviral diseases.

Norma Técnica de Salud para la atención integral de pacientes con dengue en el Perú. NTS N° 211-MINSA/DGIESP-2024 / Technical Health Standard for the comprehensive care of patients with dengue in Peru. NTS N° 211-MINSA/DGIESP-2024

La norma establece las disposiciones para la atención integral de los pacientes con diagnóstico probable o confirmado de dengue, en los diferentes niveles de atención de salud, en el país.

A reproducible ensemble machine learning approach to forecast dengue outbreaks.

Dengue fever, a prevalent and rapidly spreading arboviral disease, poses substantial public health and economic challenges in tropical and sub-tropical regions worldwide. Predicting infectious disease outbreaks on a countrywide scale is complex due to spatiotemporal variations in dengue incidence across administrative areas. To address this, we propose a machine learning ensemble model for forecasting the dengue incidence rate (DIR) in Brazil, with a focus on the population under 19 years old. The model integrates spatial and temporal information, providing one-month-ahead DIR estimates at the state level. Comparative analyses with a dummy model and ablation studies demonstrate the ensemble model's qualitative and quantitative efficacy across the 27 Brazilian Federal Units. Furthermore, we showcase the transferability of this approach to Peru, another Latin American country with differing epidemiological characteristics. This timely forecast system can aid local governments in implementing targeted control measures. The study advances climate services for health by identifying factors triggering dengue outbreaks in Brazil and Peru, emphasizing collaborative efforts with intergovernmental organizations and public health institutions. The innovation lies not only in the algorithms themselves but in their application to a domain marked by data scarcity and operational scalability challenges. We bridge the gap by integrating well-curated ground data with advanced analytical methods, addressing a significant deficiency in current practices. The successful transfer of the model to Peru and its consistent performance during the 2019 outbreak in Brazil showcase its scalability and practical application. While acknowledging limitations in handling extreme values, especially in regions with low DIR, our approach excels where accurate predictions are critical. The study not only contributes to advancing DIR forecasting but also represents a paradigm shift in integrating advanced analytics into public health operational frameworks. This work, driven by a collaborative spirit involving intergovernmental organizations and public health institutions, sets a precedent for interdisciplinary collaboration in addressing global health challenges. It not only enhances our understanding of factors triggering dengue outbreaks but also serves as a template for the effective implementation of advanced analytical methods in public health.

Detection of a Multiple Circulation Event of Dengue Virus 2 Strains in the Northern Region of Brazil.

Dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV-2) is responsible for dengue epidemics on a global scale and is associated with severe cases of the disease. This study conducted a phylogenetic investigation of DENV-2 isolates from 2017 to 2021 originating from the northern states of Brazil. A total of 32 samples from DENV-2 isolates were analyzed, including 12 from Acre, 19 from Roraima, and one from Tocantins. Only one lineage of the Asian-American genotype and one lineage of the cosmopolitan genotype were observed: Lineage 1, Asian-American genotype (connection to Puerto Rico); Lineage 5, cosmopolitan genotype (connection to Peru). Our results provide important data regarding the study of DENV genotypes and lineage distribution and open up possibilities for probable introduction and dissemination routes.

Boletín epidemiológico del Perú: Semana epidemiológica (Del 14 al 20 de enero del 2024) / Epidemiological Bulletin of Peru: Epidemiological Week (January 14 to 20, 2024)

En el país, tras 30 años de historia desde la aparición de los casos de dengue en la década de los 90, el problema sigue latente, debido a la convergencia de diversos determinantes de riesgo que favorecen el incremento del vector, tales como: incremento de la temperatura, precipitación pluvial, ocurrencia de cambios climáticos, falta y desabastecimiento de agua entubada, entre otros.

Characterization of Dengue Virus Serotype 2 Cosmopolitan Genotype Circulating in Colombia.

Dengue virus (DENV) is the etiological agent of dengue fever (DF), which is among the most prevalent vector-borne diseases in the tropics. In 2022, the Colombian health surveillance system reported more than 69,000 cases of DF. As part of a hospital-based fever surveillance study, acute-phase sera were collected from 4,545 patients with suspected dengue between 2020 and 2023 in three municipalities of Colombia. Combined reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and antigen rapid testing confirmed that 376 patients (8.3%) had DF. The virus was isolated in cell culture from 166 of these patients (44.1%), and genome sequencing was performed successfully on 122 (73.5%). Three DENV serotypes (1, 2, and 3) were identified. Phylogenetic analyses of the DENV-2 sequences revealed that 42 of 50 of the isolates (84%) belonged to the DENV-2 cosmopolitan genotype lineage, clustering with sequences from Asia, Peru, and Brazil. We report the detection, isolation, and whole-genome sequencing (11 Kb) of the DENV-2 cosmopolitan genotype and its recent introduction to Colombia.

Direct mosquito feedings on dengue-2 virus-infected people reveal dynamics of human infectiousness.

Dengue virus (DENV) transmission from humans to mosquitoes is a poorly documented, but critical component of DENV epidemiology. Magnitude of viremia is the primary determinant of successful human-to-mosquito DENV transmission. People with the same level of viremia, however, can vary in their infectiousness to mosquitoes as a function of other factors that remain to be elucidated. Here, we report on a field-based study in the city of Iquitos, Peru, where we conducted direct mosquito feedings on people naturally infected with DENV and that experienced mild illness. We also enrolled people naturally infected with Zika virus (ZIKV) after the introduction of ZIKV in Iquitos during the study period. Of the 54 study participants involved in direct mosquito feedings, 43 were infected with DENV-2, two with DENV-3, and nine with ZIKV. Our analysis excluded participants whose viremia was detectable at enrollment but undetectable at the time of mosquito feeding, which was the case for all participants with DENV-3 and ZIKV infections. We analyzed the probability of onward transmission during 50 feeding events involving 27 participants infected with DENV-2 based on the presence of infectious virus in mosquito saliva 7-16 days post blood meal. Transmission probability was positively associated with the level of viremia and duration of extrinsic incubation in the mosquito. In addition, transmission probability was influenced by the day of illness in a non-monotonic fashion; i.e., transmission probability increased until 2 days after symptom onset and decreased thereafter. We conclude that mildly ill DENV-infected humans with similar levels of viremia during the first two days after symptom onset will be most infectious to mosquitoes on the second day of their illness. Quantifying variation within and between people in their contribution to DENV transmission is essential to better understand the biological determinants of human infectiousness, parametrize epidemiological models, and improve disease surveillance and prevention strategies.

Measuring dengue illness intensity: Development and content validity of the dengue virus daily diary (DENV-DD).

BACKGROUND: Dengue is the most prevalent arboviral infection causing an estimated 50-60 million cases of febrile illness globally per year, exacting considerable disease burden. Few instruments exist to assess the patient illness experience, with most based on healthcare provider assessment, lacking standardization in timepoints and symptom assessment. This study aimed to evaluate the content validity of the novel 'Dengue Virus Daily Diary (DENV-DD)', designed to measure symptom intensity and disease burden within outpatient infant to adult populations. METHODS: The Dengue Illness Index Report Card was used as a foundation to create the DENV-DD, consisting of patient- and observer-reported outcome (PRO/ObsRO) instruments. In two South American dengue-endemic communities, qualitative combined concept elicitation and cognitive debriefing interviews were conducted among individuals and caregivers of children with symptomatic laboratory-confirmed dengue. Interviews were conducted across two rounds allowing DENV-DD modifications. A small-scale quantitative assessment of the DENV-DD was also conducted with data from an independent Dengue Human Infection Model (DHIM) to generate early evidence of feasibility of DENV-DD completion, instrument performance and insight into the sign/symptom trajectory over the course of illness. RESULTS: Forty-eight participants were interviewed (20 adults, 20 older children/adolescents with their caregivers, 8 caregivers of younger children). A wide spectrum of signs/symptoms lasting 3-15 days were reported with fever, headache, body ache/pain, loss of appetite, and body weakness each reported by > 70% participants. DENV-DD instructions, items and response scales were understood, and items were considered relevant across ages. DHIM data supported feasibility of DENV-DD completion. CONCLUSIONS: Findings demonstrate content validity of the DENV-DD (PRO/ObsRO instruments) in dengue-endemic populations. Psychometric and cultural validity studies are ongoing to support use of the DENV-DD in clinical studies.

Dengue is the most common viral infection transmitted to humans by mosquitos, and affects an estimated 50­60 million individuals globally per year. However, there are few resources for understanding and capturing the patient experience of dengue throughout illness. Most research studies are based on healthcare provider assessment, which lack consistency in terms of assessment time points and the signs/symptoms assessed. The 'Dengue Illness Index Report Card (DII-RC)' was used as a foundation to create the new 'Dengue Virus Daily Diary (DENV-DD)' to better capture the patient experience of symptom intensity and dengue disease burden for the duration of illness. Forty-eight individuals and caregivers of younger children from Peru and Ecuador who recently had symptomatic dengue were interviewed to understand the patient experience over the time of illness and to test whether the DENV-DD is understood by patients and caregivers and includes all relevant and important signs/symptoms and health-related quality of life impacts. Nine individuals with active dengue infection also completed the DENV-DD daily for 28-days as part of a clinical study. We found that > 70% of patients experienced fever, headache, body ache/pain, loss of appetite and body weakness. The DENV-DD instructions, questions and response option(s) were well understood, feasible to complete and the concepts assessed by the DENV-DD were relevant to the dengue experience. Our study adds to the understanding of the dengue illness experience and supports the DENV-DD for use in future dengue studies as an assessment of signs/symptoms throughout the duration of illness.

Primer reporte de un brote de dengue en balsas, Amazonas, Perú, durante 2021 y 2022

Introducción: El aumento de casos de dengue en Amazonas es un riesgo para la salud pública. En el 2021, Balsas reportó por primera vez un brote de dengue. Métodos: La población incluyó a pacientes que cumplían con la definición de caso entre diciembre 2021 y febrero 2022. La identificación de los serotipos se determinó mediante una qRT-PCR múltiplex. Resultados: Se identificaron 72 pacientes de los cuales 53 (74%) se confirmaron por serología (Ag NS1). El serotipo prevalente fue DENV-2 (94%), y el 6% fue DENV-1. Los pacientes de 19 a 45 años presentaron el mayor porcentaje de casos (59%). Los síntomas más frecuentes fueron cefalea, mialgias, fiebre y artralgias; el 23 % presentó dolor abdominal intenso. Conclusión: Este fue el primer brote de dengue confirmado en el distrito de Balsas, siendo DENV-2 el principal causante, destacando la necesidad de mejorar la vigilancia en zonas sin transmisión autóctona de la enfermedad.

Introduction: The increase in dengue cases in Amazonas represents a public health risk. In 2021, Balsas reported a dengue outbreak for the first time. Methods: The population included patients who met the case definition between December 2021 and February 2022. Serotype identification was determined using a multiplex qRT-PCR. Results: A total of 72 patients were identified, of which 53 (74%) were confirmed by serology (NS1 Ag). The prevalent serotype was DENV-2 (94%), and 6% were DENV-1. Patients aged 19 to 45 years had the highest percentage of cases (59%). The most frequent symptoms were headache, myalgia, fever, and arthralgia; 23% had intense abdominal pain. Conclusion: This was the first confirmed dengue outbreak in the Balsas district, with DENV-2 being the main cause of the outbreak, highlighting the need to improve surveillance in areas without autochthonous transmission of the disease.

Molecular Characterization of Dengue Virus Strains from the 2019-2020 Epidemic in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Dengue virus (DENV), which has circulated in Vietnam for several decades, has multiple serotypes and genotypes. A 2019 dengue outbreak resulted in a larger number of cases than any other outbreak. We conducted a molecular characterization using samples collected in 2019-2020 from dengue patients in Hanoi and nearby cities located in northern Vietnam. The circulating serotypes were DENV-1 (25%, n = 22) and DENV-2 (73%, n = 64). Phylogenetic analyses revealed that all DENV-1 (n = 13) were genotype I and clustered to local strains circulating during the previous outbreak in the 2017, whereas DENV-2 consisted of two genotypes: Asian-I (n = 5), related to local strains from 2006-2022, and cosmopolitan (n = 18), the predominant genotype in this epidemic. The current cosmopolitan virus was identified as having an Asian-Pacific lineage. The virus was closely related to strains in other recent outbreaks in Southeast Asian countries and China. Multiple introductions occurred in 2016-2017, which were possibly from maritime Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia), mainland Southeast Asia (Cambodia and Thailand), or China, rather than from an expansion of localized Vietnamese cosmopolitan strains that were previously detected in the 2000s. We also analyzed the genetic relationship between Vietnam's cosmopolitan strain and recent global strains reported from Asia, Oceania, Africa, and South America. This analysis revealed that viruses of Asian-Pacific lineage are not restricted to Asia but have spread to Peru and Brazil in South America.

Emergence of a New Strain of DENV-2 in South America: Introduction of the Cosmopolitan Genotype through the Brazilian-Peruvian Border.

Dengue virus 2 (DENV-2) seriously contributes to dengue-related mortality. It includes five nonsylvatic genotypes, with cosmopolitan being the most widespread with a significant contribution to the total number of DENV-2 cases globally. In South America, the cosmopolitan genotype was first recorded in 2019 in Madre de Dios, Peru, and then in Goiás (Midwest Brazil) in November 2021. In this study, we tested 163 human serum samples from Acre (Northern Brazil) collected during a DENV outbreak between 2020 and 2021 for all DENV genotypes by RT-qPCR. Of the 163 samples, 139 were positive for DENV-2, and 5 were positive for DENV-1. Five DENV-2-positive samples from early 2021 were sequenced, and the sequences clustered with the three other DENV-2 cosmopolitan genotype sequences already recorded on the continent. These results create a geographical link, suggesting the possible route of introduction of the DENV-2 cosmopolitan genotype into Brazil through the border with Peru, from which it may have dispersed to Midwest Brazil.

Clinical-epidemiological characteristics of deaths due to dengue during an outbreak in northern Peru. / Características clínicas y epidemiológicas de las muertes por dengue durante un brote en el norte del Perú.

Motivation for the study. To describe the characteristics of patients who died from severe dengue fever during the 2017 El Niño in Piura. Main findings. Mortality from severe dengue was higher in adult women. First contact with healthcare took place mostly in higher level hospitals. Admission to a specialized unit was late for severe dengue cases. Implications. Control of dengue fever involves several aspects, such as, access to health, prevention, water availability, vector control and education; therefore, it is important to strengthen public health policies in this regard. In order to achieve this goal, local and central government sectors must be involved.

Motivación para realizar el estudio. Describir las características de los pacientes fallecidos por dengue grave durante el fenómeno de El Niño del 2017 en Piura. Principales hallazgos. La mortalidad del dengue grave fue mayoritaria en las mujeres adultas, la primera atención se realizó en hospitales de mayor nivel y la atención para casos graves de dengue en una unidad especializada fue tardía. Implicancias. La mortalidad del dengue grave fue mayoritaria en las mujeres adultas, la primera atención se realizó en hospitales de mayor nivel y la atención para casos graves de dengue en una unidad especializada fue tardía.