Assessment of uncertainty and risk in modeling regional heavy-metal accumulation in agricultural soils.

Present agricultural land use and atmospheric deposition may lead to heavy-metal accumulation rates in soils that may violate soil quality standards in the future. To undertake suitable preventive measures against heavy-metal enrichment, flux balances in agroecosystems and their uncertainties have to be assessed. For this reason we developed an empirical stochastic model, PROTERRA-S, that considers heavy-metal inputs through agricultural management as well as outputs by crop removal and leaching on a regional scale. In this manuscript we describe application of PROTERRA-S to the Sundgau region in Switzerland. Considering uncertainty in informational and natural variability, large variations of the aggregated regional cadmium and zinc balances were found, with standard deviations that were of the same order of magnitude as their average values. Uncertainty in the simulated net zinc flux originated mainly from uncertainty in the zinc concentrations of manure and crops and from uncertainty in atmospheric deposition of zinc. For cadmium, the main contribution to the total uncertainty came from uncertainty in crop concentration, regression functions to estimate Freundlich parameters, atmospheric deposition, and from spatial variation of soil pH and cation exchange capacity (CEC). For both zinc and cadmium, informational uncertainty in input data were large, indicating that significant uncertainty reduction could be achieved by additional data collection campaigns. A monetary risk value for the regional zinc accumulation rate in Sundgau was calculated to be on the order of 22 million Euro.

A stochastic empirical model for regional heavy-metal balances in agroecosystems.

Mass flux balancing provides essential information for preventive strategies against heavy-metal accumulation in agricultural soils that may result from atmospheric deposition and application of fertilizers and pesticides. In this paper we present the empirical stochastic balance model, PROTERRA-S, that estimates heavy-metal and phosphorus accumulation in agricultural soils on the regional level. The basic units of these balances are land use systems defined by livestock production and cultivated crops. The model is designed to use available databases, such as regional agricultural statistics and soil information systems. In a case study, we assessed the phosphorus, cadmium, and zinc balances for the Sundgau region, Switzerland. The regional P requirements of crops were mainly supplied by animal manure (56%) and commercial fertilizers (40%). Net cadmium fluxes of the land use systems ranged from 1.0 g ha(-1) yr(-1) (dairy and mixed farm types) to 17.8 g ha(-1) yr(-1) (animal husbandry systems), whereas the regional net cadmium flux was only 1.4 g ha(-1) yr(-1). The regional net zinc flux was 605 g ha(-1) yr(-1). The smallest net zinc flux of 101 g ha(-1) yr(-1) was found for an arable farm type, whereas for animal husbandry systems fluxes up to 39.8 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) were estimated. Comparison of model results with reported metal balances of experimental farms shows that identification of agricultural land with high risks of heavy-metal accumulation benefits from stratification of heavy-metal balances according to land use systems while accounting for their P fertilization plans. Consequently, the model may support sustainable management of heavy-metal cycles in agricultural soils.