Ecological barriers mediate spatiotemporal shifts of bird communities at a continental scale.

Species' range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980s and their compositional best match in the 2010s and modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and potential losses, in community compositions in the future.

Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains.

The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under "space-for-time substitution", the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space-for-time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid- versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23-year period (1996-2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space-for-time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space-for-time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales.

Density-dependent winter survival of immatures in an irruptive raptor with pulsed breeding.

Highly mobile predators can show strong numerical responses to pulsed resources, sometimes resulting in irruptions where large numbers of young invade landscapes at a continental scale. High production of young in irruption years may have a strong influence on the population dynamics unless immature survival is reduced compared to non-irruption years. This could occur if subordinate individuals (mainly immatures) are forced into suboptimal habitats due to density-dependent effects in irruption years. To test whether irruptive individuals had lower survival than non-irruptive ones, we combined necropsy results (N = 365) with telemetry (N = 185) from more than 20 years to record timing and causes of mortality in snowy owls (Bubo scandiacus), which irrupt into eastern North America during winter following high breeding output caused by lemming peaks in the Arctic. Mortality was more than four times higher in irruption years than non-irruption years, but only for immatures, and occurred disproportionately in early winter for immatures, but not adults. Mortality was also higher in eastern North America, where owl abundance fluctuates considerably between years, compared to core winter regions of the Arctic and Prairies where populations are more stable. Most mortality was not due to starvation, but rather associated with human activity, especially vehicle collisions. We conclude that immature snowy owls that irrupt into eastern North America are limited by density-dependent factors, such as increased competition forcing individuals to occupy risky human-altered habitats. For highly mobile, irruptive animals, resource pulses may have a limited impact on population dynamics due to low subsequent survival of breeding output during the nonbreeding season.

Legacy and emerging organohalogenated compounds in feathers of Eurasian eagle-owls (Bubo bubo) in Norway: Spatiotemporal variations and associations with dietary proxies (δ13C and δ15N).

The occurrence of organohalogenated compounds (OHCs) in wildlife has received considerable attention over the last decades. Among the matrices used for OHCs biomonitoring, feathers are particularly useful as they can be collected in a minimally or non-invasive manner. In this study, concentrations of various legacy OHCs -polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)-, as well as emerging OHCs -per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and organophosphate ester flame retardants (OPEs)- were determined in feathers of 72 Eurasian eagle-owls (Bubo bubo) from Norway, with the goal of studying spatiotemporal variation using a non-invasive approach. Molted feathers were collected at nest sites from northern, central and southern Norway across four summers (2013-2016). Additionally, two museum-archived feathers from 1979 to 1989 were included. Stable carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen isotopes (δ15N) were used as dietary proxies. In total, 11 PFAS (sum range 8.25-215.90 ng g-1), 15 PCBs (4.19-430.01 ng g-1), 6 OCPs (1.48-220.94 ng g-1), 5 PBDEs (0.21-5.32 ng g-1) and 3 OPEs (4.49-222.21 ng g-1) were quantified. While we observed large variation in the values of both stable isotopes, suggesting a diverse diet of the eagle-owls, only δ13C seemed to explain variation in PFAS concentrations. Geographic area and year were influential factors for δ15N and δ13C. Considerable spatial variation was observed in PFAS levels, with the southern area showing higher levels compared to northern and central Norway. For the rest of OHCs, we observed between-year variations; sum concentrations of PCBs, OCPs, PBDEs and OPEs reached a maximum in 2015 and 2016. Concentrations from 1979 to 1989 were within the ranges observed between 2013 and 2016. Overall, our data indicate high levels of legacy and emerging OHCs in a top predator in Norway, further highlighting the risk posed by OHCs to wildlife.

Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability.

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.