Discordance in chromosomal and self-reported sex in the UK Biobank: Implications for transgender- and intersex-inclusive data collection.

There is growing need to distinguish between sex and gender. While sex is assigned at birth, gender is socially constructed and may not correspond to one's assigned sex. However, in most research studies, sex or gender is assessed in isolation or the terms are used interchangeably, which has implications for research accuracy and inclusivity. We used data from the UK Biobank to quantify the prevalence of disagreement between chromosomal and self-reported sex and identify potential reasons for discordance. Among approximately 200 individuals with sex discordance, 71% of discordances were potentially explained by the presence of intersex traits or transgender identity. The findings indicate that when describing sex- and/or gender-specific differences in health, researchers may be limited in their ability to draw conclusions regarding specific sex and/or gender health information.

Considerations for Use of Blood-Based Biomarkers in Epidemiologic Dementia Research.

Dementia represents a growing public health burden with large social, racial, and ethnic disparities. The etiology of dementia is poorly understood, and the lack of robust biomarkers in diverse, population-representative samples is a barrier to moving dementia research forward. Existing biomarkers and other measures of pathology-derived from neuropathology, neuroimaging, and cerebrospinal fluid samples-are commonly collected from predominantly White and highly educated samples drawn from academic medical centers in urban settings. Blood-based biomarkers are noninvasive and less expensive, offering promise to expand our understanding of the pathophysiology of dementia, including in participants from historically excluded groups. Although largely not yet approved by the Food and Drug Administration or used in clinical settings, blood-based biomarkers are increasingly included in epidemiologic studies on dementia. Blood-based biomarkers in epidemiologic research may allow the field to more accurately understand the multifactorial etiology and sequence of events that characterize dementia-related pathophysiological changes. As blood-based dementia biomarkers continue to be developed and incorporated into research and practice, we outline considerations for using them in dementia epidemiology, and illustrate key concepts with Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (2003-present) data. We focus on measurement, including both validity and reliability, and on the use of dementia blood-based biomarkers to promote equity in dementia research and cognitive aging. This article is part of a Special Collection on Mental Health.

Comparison of approaches to control for intracranial volume in research on the association of brain volumes with cognitive outcomes.

Most neuroimaging studies linking regional brain volumes with cognition correct for total intracranial volume (ICV), but methods used for this correction differ across studies. It is unknown whether different ICV correction methods yield consistent results. Using a brain-wide association approach in the MRI substudy of UK Biobank (N = 41,964; mean age = 64.5 years), we used regression models to estimate the associations of 58 regional brain volumetric measures with eight cognitive outcomes, comparing no correction and four ICV correction approaches. Approaches evaluated included: no correction; dividing regional volumes by ICV (proportional approach); including ICV as a covariate in the regression (adjustment approach); and regressing the regional volumes against ICV in different normative samples and using calculated residuals to determine associations (residual approach). We used Spearman-rank correlations and two consistency measures to quantify the extent to which associations were inconsistent across ICV correction approaches for each possible brain region and cognitive outcome pair across 2320 regression models. When the association between brain volume and cognitive performance was close to null, all approaches produced similar estimates close to the null. When associations between a regional volume and cognitive test were not null, the adjustment and residual approaches typically produced similar estimates, but these estimates were inconsistent with results from the crude and proportional approaches. For example, when using the crude approach, an increase of 0.114 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.103-0.125) in fluid intelligence was associated with each unit increase in hippocampal volume. However, when using the adjustment approach, the increase was 0.055 (95% CI: 0.043-0.068), while the proportional approach showed a decrease of -0.025 (95% CI: -0.035 to -0.014). Different commonly used methods to correct for ICV yielded inconsistent results. The proportional method diverges notably from other methods and results were sometimes biologically implausible. A simple regression adjustment for ICV produced biologically plausible associations.

The Association Between Physical Activity and Cognition in a Racially/Ethnically Diverse Cohort of Older Adults: Results From the Kaiser Healthy Aging and Diverse Life Experiences Study.

OBJECTIVE: Most prior research on physical activity (PA) and cognition is based on predominantly white cohorts and focused on associations of PA with mean (average) cognition versus the distribution of cognition. Quantile regression offers a novel way to quantify how PA affects cognition across the entire distribution. METHODS: The Kaiser Healthy Aging and Diverse Life Experiences study includes 30% white, 19% black, 25% Asian, and 26% Latinx adults age 65+ living in Northern California (n = 1600). The frequency of light or heavy PA was summarized as 2 continuous variables. Outcomes were z-scored executive function, semantic memory, and verbal episodic memory. We tested associations of PA with mean cognition using linear regression and used quantile regression to estimate the association of PA with the 10th-90th percentiles of cognitive scores. RESULTS: Higher levels of PA were associated with higher mean semantic memory (b = 0.10; 95% CI: 0.06, 0.14) and executive function (b = 0.05; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.09). Associations of PA across all 3 cognitive domains were stronger at low quantiles of cognition. CONCLUSION: PA is associated with cognition in this racially/ethnically diverse sample and may have larger benefits for individuals with low cognitive scores, who are most vulnerable to dementia.

Estimated effects of amyloid reduction on cognitive change: A Bayesian update across a range of priors.

INTRODUCTION: The results of the CLARITY-AD, GRADUATE I and II, and TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2 trials have rekindled discussion on the impact of amyloid-targeting drugs. We use a Bayesian approach to quantify how rational observers would have updated their prior beliefs based on new trial results. METHODS: We used publicly available data from the CLARITY-AD, GRADUATE I and II, and TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2 trials to estimate the effect of reducing amyloid on the clinical dementia rating scale, sum of boxes (CDR-SB) score. A range of prior positions were then updated according to Bayes' theorem using these estimates. RESULTS: After updating with new trial data, a wide range of starting positions resulted in credible intervals that did not include no effect of amyloid reduction on CDR-SB score. DISCUSSION: For a range of starting beliefs and assuming the veracity of the underlying data, rational observers would conclude there is a small benefit of amyloid reductions on cognition. This benefit must be weighed against opportunity cost and side-effect risk. HIGHLIGHTS: The results of recent trials of amyloid-targeting drugs have rekindled discussion on the impact of amyloid reductions achieved with amyloid-targeting drugs on cognition. Prior to the announcement of trial results, beliefs about the effects of altering amyloid levels varied. For a range of starting beliefs, one would conclude there is a small benefit of amyloid reductions due to amyloid-targeting drugs on cognition. The perceived value of individual drugs must balance the magnitude of this benefit against opportunity cost and risk of side effects.

Association of cancer history with structural brain aging markers of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias risk.

INTRODUCTION: Cancer survivors are less likely than comparably aged individuals without a cancer history to develop Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD). METHODS: In the UK Biobank, we investigated associations between cancer history and five structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) markers for ADRD risk, using linear mixed-effects models to assess differences in mean values and quantile regression to examine whether associations varied across the distribution of MRI markers. RESULTS: Cancer history was associated with smaller mean hippocampal volume (b = -19 mm3 , 95% CI = -36, -1) and lower mean cortical thickness in the Alzheimer's disease signature region (b = -0.004 mm, 95% CI = -0.007, -0.000). Quantile regressions indicated individuals most vulnerable to ADRD were more affected by cancer history. DISCUSSION: Some brain MRI markers associated with ADRD risk were elevated in adults with a history of cancer. The magnitude of the adverse associations varied across quantiles of neuroimaging markers, and the pattern suggests possible harmful associations for individuals already at high ADRD risk. HIGHLIGHTS: We found no evidence of an inverse association between cancer history and ADRD-related neurodegeneration. Cancer history was associated with smaller mean hippocampal volume and lower mean cortical thickness in the Alzheimer's disease signature region. Quantile regressions indicated individuals most vulnerable to ADRD were more affected by cancer history.

Genetic risk score for Alzheimer's disease predicts brain volume differences in mid and late life in UK biobank participants.

INTRODUCTION: We estimated the ages when associations between Alzheimer's disease (AD) genes and brain volumes begin among middle-aged and older adults. METHODS: Among 45,616 dementia-free participants aged 45-80, linear regressions tested whether genetic risk score for AD (AD-GRS) had age-dependent associations with 38 regional brain magnetic resonance imaging volumes. Models were adjusted for sex, assessment center, genetic ancestry, and intracranial volume. RESULTS: AD-GRS modified the estimated effect of age (per decade) on the amygdala (-0.41 mm3 [-0.42, -0.40]); hippocampus (-0.45 mm3 [-0.45, -0.44]), nucleus accumbens (-0.55 mm3 [-0.56, -0.54]), thalamus (-0.38 mm3 [-0.39, -0.37]), and medial orbitofrontal cortex (-0.23 mm3 [-0.24, -0.22]). Trends began by age 45 for the nucleus accumbens and thalamus, 48 for the hippocampus, 51 for the amygdala, and 53 for the medial orbitofrontal cortex. An AD-GRS excluding apolipoprotein E (APOE) was additionally associated with entorhinal and middle temporal cortices. DISCUSSION: APOE and other genes that increase AD risk predict lower hippocampal and other brain volumes by middle age.

Association between cancer and dementia risk in the UK Biobank: evidence of diagnostic bias.

Epidemiological studies have identified an inverse association between cancer and dementia. Underlying methodological biases have been postulated, yet no studies have systematically investigated the potential for each source of bias within a single dataset. We used the UK Biobank to compare estimates for the cancer-dementia association using different analytical specifications designed to sequentially address multiple sources of bias, including competing risk of death, selective survival, confounding bias, and diagnostic bias. We included 140,959 UK Biobank participants aged ≥ 55 without dementia before enrollment and with linked primary care data. We used cancer registry data to identify cancer cases prevalent before UK Biobank enrollment and incident cancer diagnosed after enrollment. We used Cox models to evaluate associations of prevalent and incident cancer with all-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease (AD), and vascular dementia. We used time-varying models to evaluate diagnostic bias. Over a median follow-up of 12.3 years, 3,310 dementia cases were diagnosed. All-site incident cancer was positively associated with all-cause dementia incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.02-1.29), but prevalent cancer was not (HR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.92-1.17). Results were similar for vascular dementia. AD was not associated with prevalent or incident cancer. Dementia diagnosis was substantially elevated in the first year after cancer diagnosis (HR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.42-2.36), after which the association attenuated to null, suggesting diagnostic bias. Following a cancer diagnosis, health care utilization or cognitive consequences of diagnosis or treatment may increase chance of receiving a dementia diagnosis, creating potential diagnostic bias in electronic health records-based studies.

Pragmatic approaches to handling practice effects in longitudinal cognitive aging research.

INTRODUCTION: The challenge of accounting for practice effects (PEs) when modeling cognitive change was amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic, which introduced period and mode effects that may bias the estimation of cognitive trajectory. METHODS: In three Kaiser Permanente Northern California prospective cohorts, we compared predicted cognitive trajectories and the association of grip strength with cognitive decline using three approaches: (1) no acknowledgment of PE, (2) inclusion of a wave indicator, and (3) constraining PE based on a preliminary model (APM) fit using a subset of the data. RESULTS: APM-based correction for PEs based on balanced, pre-pandemic data, and with current age as the timescale produced the smallest discrepancy between within-person and between-person estimated age effects. Estimated associations between grip strength and cognitive decline were not sensitive to the approach used. DISCUSSION: Constraining PEs based on a preliminary model is a flexible, pragmatic approach allowing for meaningful interpretation of cognitive change. HIGHLIGHTS: The magnitude of practice effects (PEs) varied widely by study. When PEs were present, the three PE approaches resulted in divergent estimated age-related cognitive trajectories. Estimated age-related cognitive trajectories were sometimes implausible in models that did not account for PEs. The associations between grip strength and cognitive decline did not differ by the PE approach used. Constraining PEs based on estimates from a preliminary model allows for a meaningful interpretation of cognitive change.

Dynamical Modeling as a Tool for Inferring Causation.

Dynamical models, commonly used in infectious disease epidemiology, are formal mathematical representations of time-changing systems or processes. For many chronic disease epidemiologists, the link between dynamical models and predominant causal inference paradigms is unclear. In this commentary, we explain the use of dynamical models for representing causal systems and the relevance of dynamical models for causal inference. In certain simple settings, dynamical modeling and conventional statistical methods (e.g., regression-based methods) are equivalent, but dynamical modeling has advantages over conventional statistical methods for many causal inference problems. Dynamical models can be used to transparently encode complex biological knowledge, interference and spillover, effect modification, and variables that influence each other in continuous time. As our knowledge of biological and social systems and access to computational resources increases, there will be growing utility for a variety of mathematical modeling tools in epidemiology.

Genetic Risk of Alzheimer's Disease and Sleep Duration in Non-Demented Elders.

Growing evidence has suggested an association between sleep duration and Alzheimer's disease (AD), but it is unclear if sleep duration is a manifestation of the AD disease process. We studied whether genetic liability for AD predicts sleep duration using a genetic risk score (GRS) for AD (AD-GRS), in 406,536 UK Biobank participants with European ancestry and without dementia at enrollment. Higher AD-GRS score was associated with shorter sleep (b = -0.014, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.022 to -0.006), especially in those aged 55+. Using AD-GRS as an instrumental variable for AD diagnosis, incipient AD reduced sleep duration by 1.87 hours (95% CI = 0.96, 2.78). Short sleep duration might be an early marker of AD. ANN NEUROL 2021;89:177-181.

An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics.

A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was generally lowest for high incidence seasons, those for which forecasts would be most valuable. A comparison of modeling approaches revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts. Leveraging these insights, data, and the forecasting framework will be critical to improve forecast skill and the application of forecasts in real time for epidemic preparedness and response. Moreover, key components of this project-integration with public health needs, a common forecasting framework, shared and standardized data, and open participation-can help advance infectious disease forecasting beyond dengue.

A Randomized Study to Assess the Effect of Including the Graduate Record Examinations Results on Reviewer Scores for Underrepresented Minorities.

Whether requiring Graduate Record Examinations (GRE) results for doctoral applicants affects the diversity of admitted cohorts remains uncertain. This study randomized applications to 2 population-health doctoral programs at the University of California San Francisco to assess whether masking reviewers to applicant GRE results differentially affects reviewers' scores for underrepresented minority (URM) applicants from 2018-2020. Applications with GRE results and those without were randomly assigned to reviewers to designate scores for each copy (1-10, 1 being best). URM was defined as self-identification as African American/Black, Filipino, Hmong, Vietnamese, Hispanic/Latinx, Native American/Alaska Native, or Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander. We used linear mixed models with random effects for the applicant and fixed effects for each reviewer to evaluate the effect of masking the GRE results on the overall application score and whether this effect differed by URM status. Reviewer scores did not significantly differ for unmasked versus masked applications among non-URM applicants (ß = 0.15; 95% CI: -0.03, 0.33) or URM applicants (ß = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.49, 0.54). We did not find evidence that removing GREs differentially affected URM compared with non-URM students (ß for interaction = -0.13, 95% CI: -0.55, 0.29). Within these doctoral programs, results indicate that GRE scores neither harm nor help URM applicants.

Proof of Concept Example for Use of Simulation to Allow Data Pooling Despite Privacy Restrictions.

BACKGROUND: Integrating results from multiple samples is often desirable, but privacy restrictions may preclude full data pooling, and most datasets do not include fully harmonized variable sets. We propose a simulation-based method leveraging partial information across datasets to guide creation of synthetic data based on explicit assumptions about the underlying causal structure that permits pooled analyses that adjust for all desired confounders in the context of privacy restrictions. METHODS: This proof-of-concept project uses data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. We specified an estimand of interest and a directed acyclic graph (DAG) summarizing the presumed causal structure for the effect of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) on cognitive change. We derived publicly reportable statistics to describe the joint distribution of each variable in our DAG. These summary estimates were used as data-generating rules to create synthetic datasets. After pooling, we imputed missing covariates in the synthetic datasets and used the synthetic data to estimate the pooled effect of HbA1c on cognitive change, adjusting for all desired covariates. RESULTS: Distributions of covariates and model coefficients and associated standard errors for our model estimating the effect of HbA1c on cognitive change were similar across cohort-specific original and preimputation synthetic data. The estimate from the pooled synthetic incorporates control for confounders measured in either original dataset. DISCUSSION: Our approach has advantages over meta-analysis or individual-level pooling/data harmonization when privacy concerns preclude data sharing and key confounders are not uniformly measured across datasets.

Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Young Adulthood and Midlife Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Late-life Cognitive Domains: The Kaiser Healthy Aging and Diverse Life Experiences (KHANDLE) Study.

BACKGROUND: Midlife cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) increase dementia risk. Less is known about whether CVRF identified before midlife impact late-life cognition in diverse populations. METHODS: Linear regression models examined hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and overweight/obesity at ages 30 to 59 with late-life executive function, semantic memory, verbal episodic memory, and global cognition in a cohort of Asians, blacks, Latinos, and whites (n=1127; mean age=75.8, range=65 to 98). Models adjusted for age at CVRF, age at cognitive assessment, sex, race/ethnicity, participant education, and parental education. RESULTS: Overall, 34% had 1 CVRF at ages 30 to 59; 19% had 2+. Blacks (26%) and Latinos (23%) were more likely to have 2+ CVRF than Asians (14%) or whites (13%). Having 2+ CVRF was associated with lower global cognition [ß=-0.33; 95% confidence interval (CI)=-0.45, -0.21], executive function (ß=-0.26; 95% CI=-0.39, -0.13), verbal episodic memory (ß=-0.34; 95% CI=-0.48, -0.20), and semantic memory (ß=-0.20; 95% CI=-0.33, -0.07). Interaction by age (P=0.06) indicated overweight/obesity was negatively associated with executive function at ages 30 to 39 but not at ages 40 to 59. Race/ethnic-specific effects showed disparities in CVRF prevalence impact population disparities in late-life cognition. CONCLUSION: Being overweight/obese in early adulthood and having 2+ CVRF in early adulthood/midlife are modifiable targets to redress racial/ethnic disparities in cognitive impairment and dementia.

The Association Between Cancer and Spousal Rate of Memory Decline: A Negative Control Study to Evaluate (Unmeasured) Social Confounding of the Cancer-memory Relationship.

Cancer diagnoses are associated with better long-term memory in older adults, possibly reflecting a range of social confounders that increase cancer risk but improve memory. We used spouse's memory as a negative control outcome to evaluate this possible confounding, since spouses share social characteristics and environments, and individuals' cancers are unlikely to cause better memory among their spouses. We estimated the association of an individual's incident cancer diagnosis (exposure) with their own (primary outcome) and their spouse's (negative control outcome) memory decline in 3601 couples from 1998 to 2014 in the Health and Retirement Study, using linear mixed-effects models. Incident cancer predicted better long-term memory for the diagnosed individual. We observed no association between an individual's cancer diagnosis and rate of spousal memory decline. This negative control study suggests that the inverse association between incident cancer and rate of memory decline is unlikely to be attributable to social/behavioral factors shared between spouses.

The competing risk of death and selective survival cannot fully explain the inverse cancer-dementia association.

INTRODUCTION: We evaluated whether competing risk of death or selective survival could explain the reported inverse association between cancer history and dementia incidence (incidence rate ratio [IRR] ≈ 0.62-0.85). METHODS: A multistate simulation model of a cancer- and dementia-free cohort of 65-year-olds was parameterized with real-world data (cancer and dementia incidence, mortality), assuming no effect of cancer on dementia (true IRR = 1.00). To introduce competing risk of death, cancer history increased mortality. To introduce selective survival, we included a factor (prevalence ranging from 10% to 50%) that reduced cancer mortality and dementia incidence (IRRs ranged from 0.30 to 0.90). We calculated IRRs for cancer history on dementia incidence in the simulated cohorts. RESULTS: Competing risk of death yielded unbiased cancer-dementia IRRs. With selective survival, bias was small (IRRs = 0.89 to 0.99), even under extreme scenarios. DISCUSSION: The bias induced by selective survival in simulations was too small to explain the observed inverse cancer-dementia link, suggesting other mechanisms drive this association.

Genotype-Specific Measles Transmissibility: A Branching Process Analysis.

Background: Substantial heterogeneity in measles outbreak sizes may be due to genotype-specific transmissibility. Using a branching process analysis, we characterize differences in measles transmission by estimating the association between genotype and the reproduction number R among postelimination California measles cases during 2000-2015 (400 cases, 165 outbreaks). Methods: Assuming a negative binomial secondary case distribution, we fit a branching process model to the distribution of outbreak sizes using maximum likelihood and estimated the reproduction number R for a multigenotype model. Results: Genotype B3 is found to be significantly more transmissible than other genotypes (P = .01) with an R of 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI], .48-.71), while the R for all other genotypes combined is 0.43 (95% CI, .28-.54). This result is robust to excluding the 2014-2015 outbreak linked to Disneyland theme parks (referred to as "outbreak A" for conciseness and clarity) (P = .04) and modeling genotype as a random effect (P = .004 including outbreak A and P = .02 excluding outbreak A). This result was not accounted for by season of introduction, age of index case, or vaccination of the index case. The R for outbreaks with a school-aged index case is 0.69 (95% CI, .52-.78), while the R for outbreaks with a non-school-aged index case is 0.28 (95% CI, .19-.35), but this cannot account for differences between genotypes. Conclusions: Variability in measles transmissibility may have important implications for measles control; the vaccination threshold required for elimination may not be the same for all genotypes or age groups.

The role of vaccination coverage, individual behaviors, and the public health response in the control of measles epidemics: an agent-based simulation for California.

BACKGROUND: Measles cases continue to occur among susceptible individuals despite the elimination of endemic measles transmission in the United States. Clustering of disease susceptibility can threaten herd immunity and impact the likelihood of disease outbreaks in a highly vaccinated population. Previous studies have examined the role of contact tracing to control infectious diseases among clustered populations, but have not explicitly modeled the public health response using an agent-based model. METHODS: We developed an agent-based simulation model of measles transmission using the Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics (FRED) and the Synthetic Population Database maintained by RTI International. The simulation of measles transmission was based on interactions among individuals in different places: households, schools, daycares, workplaces, and neighborhoods. The model simulated different levels of immunity clustering, vaccination coverage, and contact investigations with delays caused by individuals' behaviors and/or the delay in a health department's response. We examined the effects of these characteristics on the probability of uncontrolled measles outbreaks and the outbreak size in 365 days after the introduction of one index case into a synthetic population. RESULTS: We found that large measles outbreaks can be prevented with contact investigations and moderate contact rates by having (1) a very high vaccination coverage (≥ 95%) with a moderate to low level of immunity clustering (≤ 0.5) for individuals aged less than or equal to 18 years, or (2) a moderate vaccination coverage (85% or 90%) with no immunity clustering for individuals (≤ 18 years of age), a short intervention delay, and a high probability that a contact can be traced. Without contact investigations, measles outbreaks may be prevented by the highest vaccination coverage with no immunity clustering for individuals (≤ 18 years of age) with moderate contact rates; but for the highest contact rates, even the highest coverage with no immunity clustering for individuals (≤ 18 years of age) cannot completely prevent measles outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: The simulation results demonstrated the importance of vaccination coverage, clustering of immunity, and contact investigations in preventing uncontrolled measles outbreaks.