Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States.

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.

Return on investment from fuel treatments to reduce severe wildfire and erosion in a watershed investment program in Colorado.

A small but growing number of watershed investment programs in the western United States focus on wildfire risk reduction to municipal water supplies. This paper used return on investment (ROI) analysis to quantify how the amounts and placement of fuel treatment interventions would reduce sediment loading to the Strontia Springs Reservoir in the Upper South Platte River watershed southwest of Denver, Colorado following an extreme fire event. We simulated various extents of fuel mitigation activities under two placement strategies: (a) a strategic treatment prioritization map and (b) accessibility. Potential fire behavior was modeled under each extent and scenario to determine the impact on fire severity, and this was used to estimate expected change in post-fire erosion due to treatments. We found a positive ROI after large storm events when fire mitigation treatments were placed in priority areas with diminishing marginal returns after treating >50-80% of the forested area. While our ROI results should not be used prescriptively they do show that, conditional on severe fire occurrence and precipitation, investments in the Upper South Platte could feasibly lead to positive financial returns based on the reduced costs of dredging sediment from the reservoir. While our analysis showed positive ROI focusing only on post-fire erosion mitigation, it is important to consider multiple benefits in future ROI calculations and increase monitoring and evaluation of these benefits of wildfire fuel reduction investments for different site conditions and climates.

Stomatal sensitivity to vapor pressure deficit and its relationship to hydraulic conductance in Pinus palustris.

We studied the response of stomatal conductance at leaf (gS) and canopy (GS) scales to increasing vapor pressure deficit (D) in mature Pinus palustris Mill. (longleaf pine) growing in a sandhill habitat in the coastal plain of the southeastern USA. Specifically, we determined if variation in the stomatal response to D was related to variation in hydraulic conductance along the soil-to-leaf pathway (KL) over the course of a growing season. Reductions in KL were associated with a severe growing season drought that significantly reduced soil water content (theta) in the upper 90-cm soil profile. Although KL recovered partially following the drought, it never reached pre-drought values. Stomatal sensitivity to D was well correlated with maximum gS at low D at both leaf and canopy scales, and KL appeared to influence this response by controlling maximum gS. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that stomatal response to D occurs to regulate minimum leaf water potential, and that the sensitivity of this response is related to changes in whole-plant hydraulics.

Aquaporin-mediated changes in hydraulic conductivity of deep tree roots accessed via caves.

Although deep roots can contribute substantially to whole-tree water use, little is known about deep root functioning because of limited access for in situ measurements. We used a cave system on the Edwards Plateau of central Texas to investigate the physiology of water transport in roots at 18-20 m depth for two common tree species, Quercus fusiformis and Bumelia lanuginosa. Using sap flow and water potential measurements on deep roots, we found that calculated root hydraulic conductivity (RHC) fluctuated diurnally for both species and decreased under shading for B. lanuginosa. To assess whether these dynamic changes in RHC were regulated during initial water absorption by fine roots, we used an ultra-low flowmeter and hydroxyl radical inhibition to measure in situ fine root hydraulic conductivity (FRHC) and aquaporin contribution to FRHC (AQPC), respectively. During the summer, FRHC and AQPC were found to cycle diurnally in both species, with peaks corresponding to the period of highest transpirational demand at midday. During whole-tree shade treatments, B. lanuginosa FRHC ceased diurnal cycling and decreased by 75 and 35% at midday and midnight, respectively, while AQPC decreased by 41 and 30% during both time periods. A controlled growth-chamber study using hydroponically grown saplings confirmed daily cycling and shade-induced reductions in FRHC and AQPC. Winter measurements showed that the evergreen Q. fusiformis maintained high FRHC and AQPC throughout the year, while the deciduous B. lanuginosa ceased diurnal cycling and exhibited its lowest annual values for both parameters in winter. Adjustments in FRHC and AQPC to changing canopy water demands may help the trees maintain the use of reliable water resources from depth and contribute to the success of these species in this semi-arid environment.