Caregivers' compliance with referral advice: evidence from two studies introducing mRDTs into community case management of malaria in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Several malaria endemic countries have implemented community health worker (CHW) programmes to increase access to populations underserved by health care. There is considerable evidence on CHW adherence to case management guidelines, however, there is limited evidence on the compliance to referral advice and the outcomes of children under-5 referred by CHWs. This analysis examined whether caregivers complied with CHWs referral advice. METHODS: Data from two cluster (village) randomised trials, one in a moderate-to-high malaria transmission setting, another in a low-transmission setting conducted between January 2010-July 2011 were analysed. CHW were trained to recognise signs and symptoms that required referral to a health centre. CHW in the intervention arm also had training on; malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDT) and administering artemisinin based combination therapy (ACT); CHW in the control arm were trained to treat malaria with ACTs based on fever symptoms. Caregivers' referral forms were linked with CHW treatment forms to determine whether caregivers complied with the referral advice. Factors associated with compliance were examined with logistic regression. RESULTS: CHW saw 18,497 child visits in the moderate-to-high transmission setting and referred 15.2% (2815/18,497) of all visits; in the low-transmission setting, 35.0% (1135/3223) of all visits were referred. Compliance to referral was low, in both settings < 10% of caregivers complied with referral advice. In the moderate-to-high transmission setting compliance was higher if children were tested with mRDT compared to children who were not tested with mRDT. In both settings, nearly all children treated with pre-referral rectal artesunate failed to comply with referral and compliance was independently associated with factors such as health centre distance and day of referral by a CHW. In the moderate-to-high transmission setting, time of presentation, severity of referral were also associated with compliance, whilst in the low-transmission setting, compliance was low if an ACT was prescribed. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests there are several barriers to comply with CHWs referral advice by caregivers. This is concerning for children who received rectal artesunate. As CHW programmes continue scale-up, barriers to referral compliance need to be addressed to ensure a continuum of care from the community to the health centre. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov. Identifier NCT01048801 , 13th January 2010.

Community health workers adherence to referral guidelines: evidence from studies introducing RDTs in two malaria transmission settings in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Many malaria-endemic countries have implemented national community health worker (CHW) programmes to serve remote populations that have poor access to malaria diagnosis and treatment. Despite mounting evidence of CHWs' ability to adhere to malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and treatment guidelines, there is limited evidence whether CHWs adhere to the referral guidelines and refer severely ill children for further management. In southwest Uganda, this study examined whether CHWs referred children according to training guidelines and described factors associated with adherence to the referral guideline. METHODS: A secondary analysis was undertaken of data collected during two cluster-randomized trials conducted between January 2010 and July 2011, one in a moderate-to-high malaria transmission setting and the other in a low malaria transmission setting. All CHWs were trained to prescribe artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and recognize symptoms in children that required immediate referral to the nearest health centre. Intervention arm CHWs had additional training on how to conduct an RDT; CHWs in the control arm used a presumptive diagnosis for malaria using clinical signs and symptoms. CHW treatment registers were reviewed to identify children eligible for referral according to training guidelines (temperature of ≥38.5 °C), to assess whether CHWs adhered to the guidelines and referred them. Factors associated with adherence were examined with logistic regression models. RESULTS: CHWs failed to refer 58.8% of children eligible in the moderate-to-high transmission and 31.2% of children in the low transmission setting. CHWs using RDTs adhered to the referral guidelines more frequently than CHWs not using RDTs (moderate-to-high transmission: 50.1 vs 18.0%, p = 0.003; low transmission: 88.5 vs 44.1%, p < 0.001). In both settings, fewer than 20% of eligible children received pre-referral treatment with rectal artesunate. Children who were prescribed ACT were very unlikely to be referred in both settings (97.7 and 73.3% were not referred in the moderate-to-high and low transmission settings, respectively). In the moderate-to-high transmission setting, day and season of visit were also associated with the likelihood of adherence to the referral guidelines, but not in the low transmission setting. CONCLUSIONS: CHW adherence to referral guidelines was poor in both transmission settings. However, training CHWs to use RDT improved correct referral of children with a high fever compared to a presumptive diagnosis using sign and symptoms. As many countries scale up CHW programmes, routine monitoring of reported data should be examined carefully to assess whether CHWs adhere to referral guidelines and take remedial actions where required.

Sample size calculations for skewed distributions.

BACKGROUND: Sample size calculations should correspond to the intended method of analysis. Nevertheless, for non-normal distributions, they are often done on the basis of normal approximations, even when the data are to be analysed using generalized linear models (GLMs). METHODS: For the case of comparison of two means, we use GLM theory to derive sample size formulae, with particular cases being the negative binomial, Poisson, binomial, and gamma families. By simulation we estimate the performance of normal approximations, which, via the identity link, are special cases of our approach, and for common link functions such as the log. The negative binomial and gamma scenarios are motivated by examples in hookworm vaccine trials and insecticide-treated materials, respectively. RESULTS: Calculations on the link function (log) scale work well for the negative binomial and gamma scenarios examined and are often superior to the normal approximations. However, they have little advantage for the Poisson and binomial distributions. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed method is suitable for sample size calculations for comparisons of means of highly skewed outcome variables.

Data management plan for a community-level study of the hidden burden of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Colombia.

OBJECTIVES: Cutaneous leishmaniasis is a vector-borne parasitic disease whose lasting scars can cause stigmatization and depressive symptoms. It is endemic in remote rural areas and its incidence is under-reported, while the effectiveness, as opposed to efficacy, of its treatments is largely unknown. Here we present the data management plan (DMP) of a project which includes mHealth tools to address these knowledge gaps in Colombia. The objectives of the DMP are to specify the tools and procedures for data collection, data transfer, data entry, creation of analysis dataset, monitoring and archiving. RESULTS: The DMP includes data from two mobile apps: one implements a clinical prediction rule, and the other is for follow-up and treatment of confirmed cases. A desktop interface integrates these data and facilitates their linkage with other sources which include routine surveillance as well as paper and electronic case report forms. Multiple user and programming interfaces are used, as well as multiple relational and non-relational database engines. This DMP describes the successful integration of heterogeneous data sources and technologies. However the complexity of the project meant that the DMP took longer to develop than expected. We describe lessons learned which could be useful for future mHealth projects.

Adaptation and performance of a mobile application for early detection of cutaneous leishmaniasis.

BACKGROUND: Detection and management of neglected tropical diseases such as cutaneous leishmaniasis present unmet challenges stemming from their prevalence in remote, rural, resource constrained areas having limited access to health services. These challenges are frequently compounded by armed conflict or illicit extractive industries. The use of mobile health technologies has shown promise in such settings, yet data on outcomes in the field remain scarce. METHODS: We adapted a validated prediction rule for the presumptive diagnosis of CL to create a mobile application for use by community health volunteers. We used human-centered design practices and agile development for app iteration. We tested the application in three rural areas where cutaneous leishmaniasis is endemic and an urban setting where patients seek medical attention in the municipality of Tumaco, Colombia. The application was assessed for usability, sensitivity and inter-rater reliability (kappa) when used by community health volunteers (CHV), health workers and a general practitioner, study physician. RESULTS: The application was readily used and understood. Among 122 screened cases with cutaneous ulcers, sensitivity to detect parasitologically proven CL was >95%. The proportion of participants with parasitologically confirmed CL was high (88%), precluding evaluation of specificity, and driving a high level of crude agreement between the app and parasitological diagnosis. The chance-adjusted agreement (kappa) varied across the components of the risk score. Time to diagnosis was reduced significantly, from 8 to 4 weeks on average when CHV conducted active case detection using the application, compared to passive case detection by health facility-based personnel. CONCLUSIONS: Translating a validated prediction rule to a mHealth technology has shown the potential to improve the capacity of community health workers and healthcare personnel to provide opportune care, and access to health services for underserved populations. These findings support the use of mHealth tools for NTD research and healthcare.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Population Risk of Congenital Microcephaly in Pernambuco State, Brazil.

Since an outbreak in Brazil, which started in 2015, Zika has been recognized as an important cause of microcephaly. The highest burden of this outbreak was in northeast Brazil, including the state of Pernambuco. The prevalence of congenital microcephaly in Pernambuco state was estimated from the RESP (Registro de Eventos em Saúde Pública) surveillance system, from August 2015 to August 2016 inclusive. The denominators were estimated at the municipality level from official demographic data. Microcephaly was defined as a neonatal head circumference below the 3rd percentile of the Intergrowth standards. Smoothed maps of the prevalence of microcephaly were obtained from a Bayesian model which was conditional autoregressive (CAR) in space, and first order autoregressive in time. A total of 742 cases were identified. Additionally, high and early occurrences were identified in the Recife Metropolitan Region, on the coast, and in a north-south band about 300 km inland. Over a substantial part of the state, the overall prevalence, aggregating over the study period, was above 0.5%. The reasons for the high occurrence in the inland area remain unclear.

VECTOS: An Integrated System for Monitoring Risk Factors Associated With Urban Arbovirus Transmission.

In Colombia, as in many Latin American countries, decision making and development of effective strategies for vector control of urban diseases such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya is challenging for local health authorities. The heterogeneity of transmission in urban areas requires an efficient risk-based allocation of resources to control measures. With the objective of strengthening the capacity of local surveillance systems to identify variables that favor urban arboviral transmission, a multidisciplinary research team collaborated with the local Secretary of Health officials of 3 municipalities in Colombia (Giron, Yopal, and Buga), in the design of an integrated information system called VECTOS from 2015 to 2018. Information and communication technologies were used to develop 2 mobile applications to capture entomological and social information, as well as a web-based system for the collection, geo-referencing, and integrated information analysis using free geospatial software. This system facilitates the capture and analysis of epidemiological information from the Colombian national surveillance system (SIVIGILA), periodic entomological surveys-mosquito larvae and pupae in premises and peridomestic breeding sites-and surveys of knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) in a spatial and temporal context at the neighborhood level. The data collected in VECTOS are mapped and visualized in graphical reports. The system enables real-time monitoring of weekly epidemiological indicators, entomological indices, and social surveys. Additionally, the system enables risk stratification of neighborhoods, using selected epidemiological, entomological, demographic, and environmental variables. This article describes the VECTOS system and the lessons learned during its development and use. The joint analysis of epidemiological and entomological data within a geographic information system in VECTOS gives better insight to the routinely collected data and identifies the heterogeneity of risk factors between neighborhoods. We expect the system to continue to strengthen vector control programs in evidence-based decision making and in the design and enhanced follow-up of vector control strategies.

Mass treatment to eliminate filariasis in Papua New Guinea.

BACKGROUND: The global initiative to eradicate bancroftian filariasis currently relies on mass treatment with four to six annual doses of antifilarial drugs. The goal is to reduce the reservoir of microfilariae in the blood to a level that is insufficient to maintain transmission by the mosquito vector. METHODS: In nearly 2500 residents of Papua New Guinea, we prospectively assessed the effects of four annual treatments with a single dose of diethylcarbamazine plus ivermectin or diethylcarbamazine alone on the incidence of microfilariae-positive infections, the severity of lymphatic disease, and the rate of transmission of Wuchereria bancrofti by mosquitoes. Random assignment to treatment regimens was carried out according to the village of residence, and villages were categorized as having moderate or high rates of transmission. RESULTS: The four annual treatments with either drug regimen were taken by 77 to 86 percent of the members of the population who were at least five years old; treatments were well tolerated. The proportion with microfilariae-positive infections decreased by 86 to 98 percent, with a greater reduction in areas with a moderate rate of transmission than in those with a high rate. The respective aggregate frequencies of hydrocele and leg lymphedema were 15 percent and 5 percent before the trial began, and 5 percent (P<0.001) and 4 percent (P=0.04) after five years. Hydrocele and leg lymphedema were eliminated in 87 percent and 69 percent, respectively, of those who had these conditions at the outset. The rate of transmission by mosquitoes decreased substantially, and new microfilariae-positive infections in children were almost completely prevented over the five-year study period. CONCLUSIONS: Annual mass treatment with drugs such as diethylcarbamazine can virtually eliminate the reservoir of microfilariae and greatly reduce the frequency of clinical lymphatic abnormalities due to bancroftian filariasis. Eradication may be possible in areas with moderate rates of transmission, but longer periods of treatment or additional control measures may be necessary in areas with high rates of transmission.

Mass treatment with single-dose azithromycin for trachoma.

BACKGROUND: Trachoma, caused by repeated ocular infection with Chlamydia trachomatis, is an important cause of blindness. Current recommended dosing intervals for mass azithromycin treatment for trachoma are based on a mathematical model. METHODS: We collected conjunctival swabs for quantitative polymerase-chain-reaction assay of C. trachomatis before and 2, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months after mass treatment with azithromycin in a Tanzanian community in which trachoma was endemic. For ethical reasons, at 6, 12, and 18 months, we gave tetracycline eye ointment to residents who had clinically active trachoma. RESULTS: At baseline, 956 of 978 residents (97.8 percent) received either one oral dose of azithromycin or (if azithromycin was contraindicated) a course of tetracycline eye ointment. The prevalence of infection fell from 9.5 percent before mass treatment to 2.1 percent at 2 months and 0.1 percent at 24 months. The quantitative burden of ocular C. trachomatis infection in the community was 13.9 percent of the pretreatment level at 2 months and 0.8 percent at 24 months. At each time point after baseline, over 90 percent of the total community burden of C. trachomatis infection was found among subjects who had been positive the previous time they were tested. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence and intensity of infection fell dramatically and remained low for two years after treatment. One round of very-high-coverage mass treatment with azithromycin, perhaps aided by subsequent periodic use of tetracycline eye ointment for persons with active disease, can interrupt the transmission of ocular C. trachomatis infection.

Defining Seropositivity Thresholds for Use in Trachoma Elimination Studies.

BACKGROUND: Efforts are underway to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem by 2020. Programmatic guidelines are based on clinical signs that correlate poorly with Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) infection in post-treatment and low-endemicity settings. Age-specific seroprevalence of anti Ct Pgp3 antibodies has been proposed as an alternative indicator of the need for intervention. To standardise the use of these tools, it is necessary to develop an analytical approach that performs reproducibly both within and between studies. METHODOLOGY: Dried blood spots were collected in 2014 from children aged 1-9 years in Laos (n = 952) and Uganda (n = 2700) and from people aged 1-90 years in The Gambia (n = 1868). Anti-Pgp3 antibodies were detected by ELISA. A number of visual and statistical analytical approaches for defining serological status were compared. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Seroprevalence was estimated at 11.3% (Laos), 13.4% (Uganda) and 29.3% (The Gambia) by visual inspection of the inflection point. The expectation-maximisation algorithm estimated seroprevalence at 10.4% (Laos), 24.3% (Uganda) and 29.3% (The Gambia). Finite mixture model estimates were 15.6% (Laos), 17.1% (Uganda) and 26.2% (The Gambia). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis using a threshold calibrated against external reference specimens estimated the seroprevalence at 6.7% (Laos), 6.8% (Uganda) and 20.9% (The Gambia) when the threshold was set to optimise Youden's J index. The ROC curve analysis was found to estimate seroprevalence at lower levels than estimates based on thresholds established using internal reference data. Thresholds defined using internal reference threshold methods did not vary substantially between population samples. CONCLUSIONS: Internally calibrated approaches to threshold specification are reproducible and consistent and thus have advantages over methods that require external calibrators. We propose that future serological analyses in trachoma use a finite mixture model or expectation-maximisation algorithm as a means of setting the threshold for ELISA data. This will facilitate standardisation and harmonisation between studies and eliminate the need to establish and maintain a global calibration standard.

Prevalence of signs of trachoma, ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection and antibodies to Pgp3 in residents of Kiritimati Island, Kiribati.

OBJECTIVE: In some Pacific Island countries, such as Solomon Islands and Fiji, active trachoma is common, but ocular Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) infection and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) are rare. On Tarawa, the most populous Kiribati island, both the active trachoma sign "trachomatous inflammation-follicular" (TF) and TT are present at prevalences warranting intervention. We sought to estimate prevalences of TF, TT, ocular Ct infection, and anti-Ct antibodies on Kiritimati Island, Kiribati, to assess local relationships between these parameters, and to help determine the need for interventions against trachoma on Kiribati islands other than Tarawa. METHODS: As part of the Global Trachoma Mapping Project (GTMP), on Kiritimati, we examined 406 children aged 1-9 years for active trachoma. We collected conjunctival swabs (for droplet digital PCR against Ct plasmid targets) from 1-9-year-olds with active trachoma, and a systematic selection of 1-9-year-olds without active trachoma. We collected dried blood spots (for anti-Pgp3 ELISA) from all 1-9-year-old children. We also examined 416 adults aged ≥15 years for TT. Prevalence of TF and TT was adjusted for age (TF) or age and gender (TT) in five-year age bands. RESULTS: The age-adjusted prevalence of TF in 1-9-year-olds was 28% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 24-35). The age- and gender-adjusted prevalence of TT in those aged ≥15 years was 0.2% (95% CI: 0.1-0.3%). Twenty-six (13.5%) of 193 swabs from children without active trachoma, and 58 (49.2%) of 118 swabs from children with active trachoma were positive for Ct DNA. Two hundred and ten (53%) of 397 children had anti-Pgp3 antibodies. Both infection (p<0.0001) and seropositivity (p<0.0001) were strongly associated with active trachoma. In 1-9-year-olds, the prevalence of anti-Pgp3 antibodies rose steeply with age. CONCLUSION: Trachoma presents a public health problem on Kiritimati, where the high prevalence of ocular Ct infection and rapid increase in seropositivity with age suggest intense Ct transmission amongst young children. Interventions are required here to prevent future blindness.

Re-emergence of Chlamydia trachomatis infection after mass antibiotic treatment of a trachoma-endemic Gambian community: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Community-wide mass antibiotic treatment is a central component of trachoma control. The optimum frequency and duration of treatment are unknown. We measured the effect of mass treatment on the conjunctival burden of Chlamydia trachomatis in a Gambian community with low to medium trachoma prevalence and investigated the rate, route, and determinants of re-emergent infection. METHODS: 14 trachoma-endemic villages in rural Gambia were examined and conjunctival swabs obtained at baseline, 2, 6, 12, and 17 months. Mass antibiotic treatment with azithromycin was given to the community at baseline. C trachomatis was detected by qualitative PCR and individual infection load then estimated by real-time quantitative PCR. FINDINGS: C trachomatis was detected in 95 (7%) of 1319 individuals at baseline. Treatment coverage was 83% of the population (1328 of 1595 people). The effect of mass treatment was heterogeneous. In 12 villages all baseline infections (34 [3%] of 1062 individuals) resolved, and prevalence (three [0.3%]) and infection load remained low throughout the study. Two villages (baseline infection: 61 [24%] of 257 individuals) had increased infection 2 months after treatment (74 [30%]), after extensive contact with other untreated communities. Subsequently, this value reduced to less than half of that before treatment (25 [11%]). INTERPRETATION: Mass antibiotic treatment generally results in effective, longlasting control of C trachomatis in this environment. For low prevalence regions, one treatment episode might be sufficient. Infection can be reintroduced through contact with untreated populations. Communities need to be monitored for treatment failure and control measures implemented over wide geographical areas.

The long-term natural history of trachomatous trichiasis in the Gambia.

PURPOSE: Trachoma is the leading infectious cause of blindness. However, there are few data on the natural history of trachomatous trichiasis to guide program planning or that investigate its pathogenesis. METHODS: A cohort of Gambians with trichiasis in one or both eyes who had declined surgery was observed. Clinical examinations were performed at baseline and 4 years later. Conjunctival swab samples were collected for Chlamydia trachomatis PCR and bacteriology. RESULTS: One hundred fifty-four people were examined at baseline and 4 years later (241 nonsurgical eyes). At baseline 124 (52%) eyes had major trichiasis (5+ lashes), 75 (31%) minor trichiasis (1-4 lashes), and 42 (17%) no trichiasis. By 4 years, trichiasis had developed in 12 (29%) of 42 previously unaffected eyes. Minor trichiasis progressed to major in 28 (37%) of 75 eyes. New corneal opacification more commonly developed in eyes that had major (10%) compared to minor (5%) trichiasis at baseline. Bacterial infection was common (23%), becoming more frequent with increasing trichiasis. C. trachomatis infection was rare (1%). Conjunctival inflammation was common (29%) and was associated with progressive trichiasis and corneal opacification. CONCLUSIONS: Trichiasis progressed in the long-term in this environment, despite a low prevalence of C. trachomatis. Blinding corneal opacification develops infrequently, unless major trichiasis is present. Epilation and early surgery need to be formally compared for the management of minor trichiasis. The pathologic correlates and promoters of conjunctival inflammation need to be investigated.

Operational evaluation of the use of photographs for grading active trachoma.

We evaluated the reliability of photographs to verify field diagnoses of active trachoma. We examined 956 residents of a trachoma-endemic village for signs of trachoma using the World Health Organization simplified grading system. Two photographs of the right eye of 948 persons were independently graded (masked to field assessment) by the field examiner and two other experienced graders. There was only moderate agreement between field assessment and the subsequent photographic evaluations by the three graders. When we counted ungradable photographs as disagreements, mean kappa scores for the signs trachomatous inflammation (follicular [TF]) and trachomatous inflammation (intense [TI]) were 0.44 and 0.51, respectively. There was also only fair-to-moderate agreement between the three assessments (by different examiners) of the photographs. Either the signs TF and TI themselves are not as reliable as previously believed, or photographs should be used for their diagnosis only when reliability testing demonstrates better agreement than found here.

Referral Patterns of Community Health Workers Diagnosing and Treating Malaria: Cluster-Randomized Trials in Two Areas of High- and Low-Malaria Transmission in Southwestern Uganda.

Malaria-endemic countries have implemented community health worker (CHW) programs to provide malaria diagnosis and treatment to populations living beyond the reach of health systems. However, there is limited evidence describing the referral practices of CHWs. We examined the impact of malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs) on CHW referral in two cluster-randomized trials, one conducted in a moderate-to-high malaria transmission setting and one in a low-transmission setting in Uganda, between January 2010 and July 2012. All CHWs were trained to prescribe artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for malaria and recognize signs and symptoms for referral to health centers. CHWs in the control arm used a presumptive diagnosis for malaria based on clinical symptoms, whereas intervention arm CHWs used mRDTs. CHWs recorded ACT prescriptions, mRDT results, and referral in patient registers. An intention-to-treat analysis was undertaken using multivariable logistic regression. Referral was more frequent in the intervention arm versus the control arm (moderate-to-high transmission, P < 0.001; low transmission, P < 0.001). Despite this increase, referral advice was not always given when ACTs or prereferral rectal artesunate were prescribed: 14% prescribed rectal artesunate in the moderate-to-high setting were not referred. In addition, CHWs considered factors alongside mRDTs when referring. Child visits during the weekends or the rainy season were less likely to be referred, whereas visits to CHWs more distant from health centers were more likely to be referred (low transmission only). CHWs using mRDTs and ACTs increased referral compared with CHWs using a presumptive diagnosis. To address these concerns, referral training should be emphasized in CHW programs as they are scaled-up.

An immune basis for malaria protection by the sickle cell trait.

BACKGROUND: Malaria resistance by the sickle cell trait (genotype HbAS) has served as the prime example of genetic selection for over half a century. Nevertheless, the mechanism of this resistance remains the subject of considerable debate. While it probably involves innate factors such as the reduced ability of Plasmodium falciparum parasites to grow and multiply in HbAS erythrocytes, recent observations suggest that it might also involve the accelerated acquisition of malaria-specific immunity. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We studied the age-specific protection afforded by HbAS against clinical malaria in children living on the coast of Kenya. We found that protection increased with age from only 20% in the first 2 y of life to a maximum of 56% by the age of 10 y, returning thereafter to 30% in participants greater than 10 y old. CONCLUSIONS: Our observations suggest that malaria protection by HbAS involves the enhancement of not only innate but also of acquired immunity to the parasite. A better understanding of the underlying mechanisms might yield important insights into both these processes.

Strategies for control of trachoma: observational study with quantitative PCR.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotics are an important part of WHO's strategy to eliminate trachoma as a blinding disease by 2020. At present, who needs to be treated is unclear. We aimed to establish the burden of ocular Chlamydia trachomatis in three trachoma-endemic communities in Tanzania and The Gambia with real-time quantitative PCR. METHODS: Conjunctival swabs were obtained at examination from 3146 individuals. Swabs were first tested by the qualitative Amplicor PCR, which is known to be highly sensitive. In positive samples, the number of copies of omp1 (a single-copy C trachomatis gene) was measured by quantitative PCR. FINDINGS: Children had the highest ocular loads of C trachomatis, although the amount of pooling in young age groups was less striking at the site with the lowest trachoma frequency. Individuals with intense inflammatory trachoma had higher loads than did those with other conjunctival signs. At the site with the highest prevalence of trachoma, 48 of 93 (52%) individuals with conjunctival scarring but no sign of active disease were positive for ocular chlamydiae. INTERPRETATION: Children younger than 10 years old, and those with intense inflammatory trachoma, probably represent the major source of ocular C trachomatis infection in endemic communities. Success of antibiotic distribution programmes could depend on these groups receiving effective treatment.

Are we nearly there yet? Coverage and compliance of mass drug administration for lymphatic filariasis elimination.

Lymphatic filariasis has been targeted for elimination by 2020, and a threshold of 65% coverage of mass drug administration (MDA) has been adopted by the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF). A recent review by Babu and Babu of 36 studies of MDA for lymphatic filariasis in India found that coverage, defined as receipt of tablets, ranged from 48.8 to 98.8%, while compliance, defined as actual ingestion of tablets, was 22% lower on average. Moreover, the denominator for these coverage figures is the eligible, rather than total, population. By contrast, the 65% threshold, in the original modelling study, refers to ingestion of tablets in the total population. This corresponds to GPELF's use of 'epidemiological drug coverage' as a trigger for the Transmission Assessment Surveys (TAS), which indicate whether to proceed to post-MDA surveillance. The existence of less strict definitions of 'coverage' should not lead to premature TAS that could impair MDA's sustainability.

Generalizing boundaries for triangular designs, and efficacy estimation at extended follow-ups.

BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a parasitic disease transmitted by sandflies and is fatal if left untreated. Phase II trials of new treatment regimens for VL are primarily carried out to evaluate safety and efficacy, while pharmacokinetic data are also important to inform future combination treatment regimens. The efficacy of VL treatments is evaluated at two time points, initial cure, when treatment is completed and definitive cure, commonly 6 months post end of treatment, to allow for slow response to treatment and detection of relapses. This paper investigates a generalization of the triangular design to impose a minimum sample size for pharmacokinetic or other analyses, and methods to estimate efficacy at extended follow-up accounting for the sequential design and changes in cure status during extended follow-up. METHODS: We provided R functions that generalize the triangular design to impose a minimum sample size before allowing stopping for efficacy. For estimation of efficacy at a second, extended, follow-up time, the performance of a shrinkage estimator (SHE), a probability tree estimator (PTE) and the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for estimation was assessed by simulation. RESULTS: The SHE and PTE are viable approaches to estimate an extended follow-up although the SHE performed better than the PTE: the bias and root mean square error were lower and coverage probabilities higher. CONCLUSIONS: Generalization of the triangular design is simple to implement for adaptations to meet requirements for pharmacokinetic analyses. Using the simple MLE approach to estimate efficacy at extended follow-up will lead to biased results, generally over-estimating treatment success. The SHE is recommended in trials of two or more treatments. The PTE is an acceptable alternative for one-arm trials or where use of the SHE is not possible due to computational complexity. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01067443 , February 2010.