Analytical framework to evaluate and optimize the use of imperfect diagnostics to inform outbreak response: Application to the 2017 plague epidemic in Madagascar.

During outbreaks, the lack of diagnostic "gold standard" can mask the true burden of infection in the population and hamper the allocation of resources required for control. Here, we present an analytical framework to evaluate and optimize the use of diagnostics when multiple yet imperfect diagnostic tests are available. We apply it to laboratory results of 2,136 samples, analyzed with 3 diagnostic tests (based on up to 7 diagnostic outcomes), collected during the 2017 pneumonic (PP) and bubonic plague (BP) outbreak in Madagascar, which was unprecedented both in the number of notified cases, clinical presentation, and spatial distribution. The extent of these outbreaks has however remained unclear due to nonoptimal assays. Using latent class methods, we estimate that 7% to 15% of notified cases were Yersinia pestis-infected. Overreporting was highest during the peak of the outbreak and lowest in the rural settings endemic to Y. pestis. Molecular biology methods offered the best compromise between sensitivity and specificity. The specificity of the rapid diagnostic test was relatively low (PP: 82%, BP: 85%), particularly for use in contexts with large quantities of misclassified cases. Comparison with data from a subsequent seasonal Y. pestis outbreak in 2018 reveal better test performance (BP: specificity 99%, sensitivity: 91%), indicating that factors related to the response to a large, explosive outbreak may well have affected test performance. We used our framework to optimize the case classification and derive consolidated epidemic trends. Our approach may help reduce uncertainties in other outbreaks where diagnostics are imperfect.

Multiple Introductions of Yersinia pestis during Urban Pneumonic Plague Epidemic, Madagascar, 2017.

Pneumonic plague (PP) is characterized by high infection rate, person-to-person transmission, and rapid progression to severe disease. In 2017, a PP epidemic occurred in 2 Madagascar urban areas, Antananarivo and Toamasina. We used epidemiologic data and Yersinia pestis genomic characterization to determine the sources of this epidemic. Human plague emerged independently from environmental reservoirs in rural endemic foci >20 times during August-November 2017. Confirmed cases from 5 emergences, including 4 PP cases, were documented in urban areas. Epidemiologic and genetic analyses of cases associated with the first emergence event to reach urban areas confirmed that transmission started in August; spread to Antananarivo, Toamasina, and other locations; and persisted in Antananarivo until at least mid-November. Two other Y. pestis lineages may have caused persistent PP transmission chains in Antananarivo. Multiple Y. pestis lineages were independently introduced to urban areas from several rural foci via travel of infected persons during the epidemic.

Transmission of Antimicrobial Resistant Yersinia pestis During a Pneumonic Plague Outbreak.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonic plague (PP), caused by Yersinia pestis, is the most feared clinical form of plague due to its rapid lethality and potential to cause outbreaks. PP outbreaks are now rare due to antimicrobial therapy. METHODS: A PP outbreak in Madagascar involving transmission of a Y. pestis strain resistant to streptomycin, the current recommended first-line treatment in Madagascar, was retrospectively characterized using epidemiology, clinical diagnostics, molecular characterization, and animal studies. RESULTS: The outbreak occurred in February 2013 in the Faratsiho district of Madagascar and involved 22 cases, including 3 untreated fatalities. The 19 other cases participated in funeral practices for the fatal cases and fully recovered after combination antimicrobial therapy: intramuscular streptomycin followed by oral co-trimoxazole. The Y. pestis strain that circulated during this outbreak is resistant to streptomycin resulting from a spontaneous point mutation in the 30S ribosomal protein S12 (rpsL) gene. This same mutation causes streptomycin resistance in 2 unrelated Y. pestis strains, one isolated from a fatal PP case in a different region of Madagascar in 1987 and another isolated from a fatal PP case in China in 1996, documenting this mutation has occurred independently at least 3 times in Y. pestis. Laboratory experiments revealed this mutation has no detectable impact on fitness or virulence, and revertants to wild-type are rare in other species containing it, suggesting Y. pestis strains containing it could persist in the environment. CONCLUSIONS: Unique antimicrobial resistant (AMR) strains of Y. pestis continue to arise in Madagascar and can be transmitted during PP outbreaks.

Improved Selective BIN Agar for a Better Rate of Yersinia pestis Isolation from Primary Clinical Specimens in Suspected Madagascar Plague Cases.

According to the WHO, 75% of the world's plague cases are found in Madagascar, with an average of 200 to 700 cases suspected annually (mainly bubonic plague). In 2017, a pneumonic plague epidemic of unusual proportions occurred, which raised several challenges for laboratory confirmation of cases, pointing to the need for the development of Yersinia pestis isolation procedures, especially those that can be performed in remote areas. As the WHO gold standard for plague diagnosis is bacterial culture, we sought to develop a simple method to prepare a highly selective medium, fit for use in remote areas where plague is endemic. The performance of the new medium, named improved BIN, was examined in terms of growth support and selectivity with spiked samples as well in isolating Y. pestis from clinical specimens, and it was compared to the results obtained with commercially available selective media. The preparation of the new medium is less complex and its performance was found to be superior to that of first-generation BIN medium. The growth support of the medium is higher, there is no batch diversity, and it maintains high selectivity properties. In 55 clinical specimens obtained from patients suspected to be infected with Y. pestis, approximately 20% more Y. pestis-positive isolates were identified by the improved BIN medium than were identified by commercially available selective media. The improved BIN medium is notably advantageous for the isolation of Y. pestis from clinical specimens obtained from plague patients, thus offering better surveillance tools and proper promotion of medical treatment to more patients suspected of being infected with Y. pestis.

Performance of plague rapid diagnostic test compared to bacteriology: a retrospective analysis of the data collected in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Plague is a highly fatal disease caused by Yersinia pestis. Late diagnosis hampers disease outcome and effectiveness of control measures, induces death and disease spread. Advance on its diagnosis was the use of lateral flow rapid diagnostic test (RDT). METHODS: We assessed the performance of the plague RDT based on Y. pestis F1 antigen detection more than 15 years after its deployment in Madagascar. We compared the RDT with bacteriological culture results, using data from plague notified cases collected during the periods for which both tests were performed independently and systematically. RESULTS: Used with bubonic plague (BP) patient samples, RDTs had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 99.7-100%), a specificity of 67% (95% CI: 64-70%) with a good agreement between bacteriology and RDT results (86%; κ = 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.73). For pneumonic plague (PP), RDT had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 91-100%) and a specificity of 59% (95% CI: 49-68%) and concordance between the bacteriological and plague RDT results was moderate (70%; κ = 0.43, 95% CI 0.32-0.55). Analysis focusing on the 2017-2018 plague season including the unprecedented epidemic of PP showed that RDT used on BP samples still had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 85-100%) and a specificity of 82% (95% CI: 48-98%) with a very good agreement with bacteriology 94% (κ = 0.86, 95% CI 0.67-1); for PP samples, concordance between the bacteriological and plague RDT results was poor (61%; κ = - 0.03, 95% CI -0.17 - 0.10). CONCLUSIONS: RDT performance appeared to be similar for the diagnosis of BP and PP except during the 2017 PP epidemic where RDT performance was low. This RDT, with its good sensitivity on both plague clinical forms during a normal plague season, remained a potential test for alert. Particularly for BP, it may be of great value in the decision process for the initiation of therapy. However, for PP, RDT may deliver false negative results due to inconsistent sample quality. Plague diagnosis could be improved through the development of next generation of RDTs.

Short- and long-term humoral immune response against Yersinia pestis in plague patients, Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Plague, a fatal disease caused by the bacillus, Yersinia pestis, still affects resources-limited countries. Information on antibody response to plague infection in human is scarce. Anti-F1 Ig G are among the known protective antibodies against Y. pestis infection. As a vaccine preventable disease, knowledge on antibody response is valuable for the development of an effective vaccine to reduce infection rate among exposed population in plague-endemic regions. In this study, we aim to describe short and long-term humoral immune responses against Y. pestis in plague-confirmed patients from Madagascar, the most affected country in the world. METHODS: Bubonic (BP) and pneumonic plague (PP) patients were recruited from plague- endemic foci in the central highlands of Madagascar between 2005 and 2017. For short-term follow-up, 6 suspected patients were enrolled and prospectively investigated for kinetics of the anti-F1 IgG response, whereas the persistence of antibodies was retrospectively studied in 71 confirmed convalescent patients, using an ELISA which was validated for the detection of plague in human blood samples in Madagascar. RESULTS: Similarly to previous findings, anti-F1 IgG rose quickly during the first week after disease onset and increased up to day 30. In the long-term study, 56% of confirmed cases remained seropositive, amongst which 60 and 40% could be considered as high- and low-antibody responders, respectively. Antibodies persisted for several years and up to 14.8 years for one individual. Antibody titers decreased over time but there was no correlation between titer and time elapsed between the disease onset and serum sampling. In addition, the seroprevalence rate was not significantly different between gender (P = 0.65) nor age (P = 0.096). CONCLUSION: Our study highlighted that the circulating antibody response to F1 antigen, which is specific to Y. pestis, may be attributable to individual immune responsiveness. The finding that a circulating anti-F1 antibody titer could persist for more than a decade in both BP and PP recovered patients, suggests its probable involvement in patients' protection. However, complementary studies including analyses of the cellular immune response to Y. pestis are required for the better understanding of long-lasting protection and development of a potential vaccine against plague.

Trends of Human Plague, Madagascar, 1998-2016.

Madagascar is more seriously affected by plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, than any other country. The Plague National Control Program was established in 1993 and includes human surveillance. During 1998-2016, a total of 13,234 suspected cases were recorded, mainly from the central highlands; 27% were confirmed cases, and 17% were presumptive cases. Patients with bubonic plague (median age 13 years) represented 93% of confirmed and presumptive cases, and patients with pneumonic plague (median age 29 years) represented 7%. Deaths were associated with delay of consultation, pneumonic form, contact with other cases, occurrence after 2009, and not reporting dead rats. A seasonal pattern was observed with recrudescence during September-March. Annual cases peaked in 2004 and decreased to the lowest incidence in 2016. This overall reduction occurred primarily for suspected cases and might be caused by improved adherence to case criteria during widespread implementation of the F1 rapid diagnostic test in 2002.

Mixed pneumonic plague and nosocomial MDR-bacterial infection of lung: a rare case report.

BACKGROUND: Plague is a life-threatening disease caused by the bacterium, Yersinia pestis. Madagascar is the leading country for human plague cases worldwide. Human plague is a serious disease, particularly in its septicaemic and pneumonic forms. We report a case of pneumonic plague co-infected by a MDR-Stenotrophomonas maltophilia. CASE PRESENTATION: A 24 year-old man originated from Soavinandriana, a plague focus, felt uneasy and developed high fever with chills. He started treatment by himself, by private medical care and by a traditional healer for nine days moving several times from place to place. His condition had deteriorated when he presented to a district hospital with a syndrome of dyspnea, bronchial rale and altered state of consciousness. Two days later, plague diagnosis, performed as a last resort, revealed a positive F1 antigen on rapid diagnostic test. Additional tests (pla PCR and plague serology) evidenced a Y. pestis infection. However, streptomycin treatment did not achieve a complete recovery as the course of disease was complicated by the presence of MDR-S. maltophilia in his lung. This opportunistic infection could have been favored by an immunosuppression due to Y. pestis pulmonary infection and probably been acquired during his stay at a District Hospital. He was treated with a combination of ciprofloxacin and gentamycin and recovered fully. CONCLUSIONS: Pneumonic plague infection may promote another virulent or avirulent bacterial infection particularly when it is not initially suspected. However, coinfection is rarely described and its occurrence frequency is unknown. In middle or low resources areas, which is the case of most plague endemic countries, control and prevention of infections in health facilities is not optimal. Co-infection with an opportunistic pathogen agent, such as S. maltophilia, is a risk which must not be disregarded as demonstrated by this case report. When deciding of a national control strategy, it should be taken into account in the choice of the first line treatment.

Pneumonic Plague Transmission, Moramanga, Madagascar, 2015.

During a pneumonic plague outbreak in Moramanga, Madagascar, we identified 4 confirmed, 1 presumptive, and 9 suspected plague case-patients. Human-to-human transmission among close contacts was high (reproductive number 1.44) and the case fatality rate was 71%. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the Yersinia pestis isolates belonged to group q3, different from the previous outbreak.

Review of genotyping methods for Yersinia pestis in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Plague, a zoonotic disease caused by Yersinia pestis, was responsible for 3 historical human pandemics that killed millions of people. It remains endemic in rodent populations in Africa, Asia, North America, and South America but human plague is rare in most of these locations. However, human plague is still highly prevalent in Madagascar, which typically records a significant part of all annual global cases. This has afforded an opportunity to study contemporary human plague in detail using various typing methods for Y. pestis. AIM: This review aims to summarize the methods that have been used to type Y. pestis in Madagascar along with the major discoveries that have been made using these approaches. METHODS: Pubmed and Google Scholar were used to search for the keywords: "typing Yersinia pestis Madagascar," "evolution Yersinia pestis Madagascar," and "diversity Yersinia pestis Madagascar." Eleven publications were relevant to our topic and further information was retrieved from references cited in those publications. RESULTS: The history of Y. pestis typing in Madagascar can be divided in 2 periods: the pre-genomics and genomics eras. During the pre-genomics era, ribotyping, direct observation of plasmid content and plasmid restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLP) were employed but only revealed a limited amount of diversity among Malagasy Y. pestis strains. Extensive diversity only started to be revealed in the genomics era with the use of clustered regularly interspaced palindromic repeats (CRISPR), multiple-locus variable number tandem repeats (VNTR) analysis (MLVA), and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) discovered from whole genome sequences. These higher-resolution genotyping methods have made it possible to highlight the distribution and persistence of genotypes in the different plague foci of Madagascar (Mahajanga and the Central and Northern Highlands) by genotyping strains from the same locations across years, to detect transfers between foci, to date the emergence of genotypes, and even to document the transmission of antimicrobial resistant (AMR) strains during a pneumonic plague outbreak. Despite these discoveries, there still remain topics that deserve to be explored, such as the contribution of horizontal gene transfer to the evolution of Malagasy Y. pestis strains and the evolutionary history of Y. pestis in Madagascar. CONCLUSIONS: Genotyping of Y. pestis has yielded important insights on plague in Madagascar, particularly since the advent of whole-genome sequencing (WGS). These include a better understanding of plague persistence in the environment, antimicrobial AMR and multi-drug resistance in Y. pestis, and the person-to-person spread of pneumonic plague. Considering that human plague is still a significant public health threat in Madagascar, these insights can be useful for controlling and preventing human plague in Madagascar and elsewhere, and also are relevant for understanding the historical pandemics and the possible use of Y. pestis as a biological weapon.

Phylogenetic analysis of the origin and spread of plague in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Plague is a zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, highly prevalent in the Central Highlands, a mountainous region in the center of Madagascar. After a plague-free period of over 60 years in the northwestern coast city of Mahajanga, the disease reappeared in 1991 and caused several outbreaks until 1999. Previous research indicates that the disease was reintroduced to the city of Mahajanga from the Central Highlands instead of reemerging from a local reservoir. However, it is not clear how many reintroductions occurred and when they took place. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this study we applied a Bayesian phylogeographic model to detect and date migrations of Y. pestis between the two locations that could be linked to the re-emergence of plague in Mahajanga. Genome sequences of 300 Y. pestis strains sampled between 1964 and 2012 were analyzed. Four migrations from the Central Highlands to Mahajanga were detected. Two resulted in persistent transmission in humans, one was responsible for most of the human cases recorded between 1995 and 1999, while the other produced plague cases in 1991 and 1992. We dated the emergence of the Y. pestis sub-branch 1.ORI3, which is only present in Madagascar and Turkey, to the beginning of the 20th century, using a Bayesian molecular dating analysis. The split between 1.ORI3 and its ancestor lineage 1.ORI2 was dated to the second half of the 19th century. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results indicate that two independent migrations from the Central Highlands caused the plague outbreaks in Mahajanga during the 1990s, with both introductions occurring during the early 1980s. They happened over a decade before the detection of human cases, thus the pathogen likely survived in wild reservoirs until the spillover to humans was possible. This study demonstrates the value of Bayesian phylogenetics in elucidating the re-emergence of infectious diseases.

A self-amplifying RNA vaccine provides protection in a murine model of bubonic plague.

Mice were immunized with a combination of self-amplifying (sa) RNA constructs for the F1 and V antigens of Yersinia pestis at a dose level of 1 µg or 5 µg or with the respective protein sub-units as a reference vaccine. The immunization of outbred OF1 mice on day 0 and day 28 with the lowest dose used (1 µg) of each of the saRNA constructs in lipid nanoparticles protected 5/7 mice against subsequent sub-cutaneous challenge on day 56 with 180 cfu (2.8 MLD) of a 2021 clinical isolate of Y. pestis termed 10-21/S whilst 5/7 mice were protected against 1800cfu (28MLD) of the same bacteria on day 56. By comparison, only 1/8 or 1/7 negative control mice immunized with 10 µg of irrelevant haemagglutin RNA in lipid nanoparticles (LNP) survived the challenge with 2.8 MLD or 28 MLD Y. pestis 10-21/S, respectively. BALB/c mice were also immunized with the same saRNA constructs and responded with the secretion of specific IgG to F1 and V, neutralizing antibodies for the V antigen and developed a recall response to both F1 and V. These data represent the first report of an RNA vaccine approach using self-amplifying technology and encoding both of the essential virulence antigens, providing efficacy against Y. pestis. This saRNA vaccine for plague has the potential for further development, particularly since its amplifying nature can induce immunity with less boosting. It is also amenable to rapid manufacture with simpler downstream processing than protein sub-units, enabling rapid deployment and surge manufacture during disease outbreaks.

Characterization of Klebsiella pneumoniae isolated from patients suspected of pulmonary or bubonic plague during the Madagascar epidemic in 2017.

Klebsiella pneumoniae can lead to a wide range of diseases including pneumonia, bloodstream and urinary tract infections. During a short period of a pulmonary plague epidemic in October 2017 in Madagascar, 12 K. pneumoniae isolates were identified in ten sputum and two buboes aspirate samples. These isolates were from 12 patients suspected of plague, without epidemiological relationships, but were negative for Yersinia pestis in culture. Data were collected from the plague national surveillance system. The isolates were characterized by antimicrobial susceptibility testing and whole-genome sequencing. Real-time PCR was performed to confirm the presence of K. pneumoniae DNA in buboes. All isolates were identified as K. pneumoniae sensu stricto. Five isolates were extended-spectrum ß-lactamases producers; eleven different sequence types were identified. Five isolates belonged to known hypervirulent sequence types. Our results demonstrate community-acquired pneumonia caused by K. pneumoniae isolates in patients suspected of plague stressing the importance of bed-side differential diagnosis.

Local-scale diversity of Yersinia pestis: A case study from Ambohitromby, Ankazobe District, Madagascar.

Plague is a re-emerging zoonotic disease and a major public health concern in several portions of the world, especially in Madagascar. We report on the presence of different subtypes of Yersinia pestis co-occurring in the same locality. After confirmation of a human plague case in Ambohitromby Commune (Ankazobe District) via isolation of Y. pestis, we undertook small mammal trapping to identify the circulation of Y. pestis amongst rodents in this locality; blood samples were collected from rodents for seroprevalence analysis. Of the 60 individuals of Rattus rattus captured, one yielded an isolate of Y. pestis, 13 others were positive for F1 antigen of Y. pestis using a rapid diagnostic test, and 4 were PCR positive targeting the caf1 and pla genes; 28/60 (46.7%) of the captured R. rattus were seropositive for Y. pestis. Whole-genome SNP analyses revealed that the two isolates obtained from the human case, and the R. rattus belonged to two different subtypes of Y. pestis (s05 and s13, respectively) that were circulating concurrently in Ambohitromby in 2016. Three Y. pestis subtypes (s03, s05 and s13) have now been isolated from Ambohitromby. Subtype s05 had been persisting there for >10 years but one or both of the other subtypes may have been introduced from the Central Highlands region as they were not observed in previous years (s13) or only observed once previously (s03). High seroprevalence against Y. pestis in R. rattus suggests that a portion of the local murine population may have acquired resistance to Y. pestis. Future research should focus on genomically characterizing Y. pestis strains circulating in Ankazobe District and other plague-endemic regions of Madagascar to better understand the overall phylogeography of Y. pestis.

Proteomic Signatures of Antimicrobial Resistance in Yersinia pestis and Francisella tularensis.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a well-recognized, widespread, and growing issue of concern. With increasing incidence of AMR, the ability to respond quickly to infection with or exposure to an AMR pathogen is critical. Approaches that could accurately and more quickly identify whether a pathogen is AMR also are needed to more rapidly respond to existing and emerging biological threats. We examined proteins associated with paired AMR and antimicrobial susceptible (AMS) strains of Yersinia pestis and Francisella tularensis, causative agents of the diseases plague and tularemia, respectively, to identify whether potential existed to use proteins as signatures of AMR. We found that protein expression was significantly impacted by AMR status. Antimicrobial resistance-conferring proteins were expressed even in the absence of antibiotics in growth media, and the abundance of 10-20% of cellular proteins beyond those that directly confer AMR also were significantly changed in both Y. pestis and F. tularensis. Most strikingly, the abundance of proteins involved in specific metabolic pathways and biological functions was altered in all AMR strains examined, independent of species, resistance mechanism, and affected cellular antimicrobial target. We have identified features that distinguish between AMR and AMS strains, including a subset of features shared across species with different resistance mechanisms, which suggest shared biological signatures of resistance. These features could form the basis of novel approaches to identify AMR phenotypes in unknown strains.

Field assessment of dog as sentinel animal for plague in endemic foci of Madagascar.

The epidemiology of Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, involves vectors and reservoirs in its transmission cycle. The passive plague surveillance in Madagascar targets mainly rodent and fleas. However, carnivores are routinely surveyed as sentinels of local plague activity in some countries. The aim of this study is to assess the use of domestic dog (Canis familiaris) as sentinel animal for field surveillance of plague in a highly endemic area in Madagascar. Cross-sectional surveys of plague antibody prevalence in C. familiaris were conducted in endemic areas with contrasting histories of plague cases in humans, as well as a plague free area. Rodent capture was done in parallel to evaluate evidence for Y. pestis circulation in the primary reservoirs. In 2 sites, dogs were later re-sampled to examine evidence of seroconversion and antibody persistence. Biological samplings were performed between March 2008 and February 2009. Plague antibody detection was assessed using anti-F1 ELISA. Our study showed a significant difference in dog prevalence rates between plague-endemic and plague-free areas, with no seropositive dogs detected in the plague free area. No correlation was found between rodents and dog prevalence rates, with an absence of seropositive rodents in some area where plague circulation was indicated by seropositive dogs. This is consistent with high mortality rates in rodents following infection. Re-sampling dogs identified individuals seropositive on both occasions, indicating high rates of re-exposure and/or persistence of plague antibodies for at least 9 months. Seroconversion or seropositive juvenile dogs indicated recent local plague circulation. In Madagascar, dog surveillance for plague antibody could be useful to identify plague circulation in new areas or quiescent areas within endemic zones. Within active endemic areas, monitoring of dog populations for seroconversion (negative to positive) or seropositive juvenile dogs could be useful for identifying areas at greatest risk of human outbreaks.

Potential human immunotherapeutics for plague.

Two monoclonal antibodies directed to the V antigen of Yersinia pestis have been tested for protective efficacy in a murine model of bubonic plague. Mice were infected with a current clinical isolate from Madagascar, designated Y. pestis 10-21/S. Mab7.3, delivered to mice intra-periteoneally at either 24 h prior to, or 24 h post-infection, was fully protective, building on many studies which have demonstrated the protective efficacy of this Mab against a number of different clinical isolates of Y. pestis. Mab 29.3, delivered intra-peritoneally at either -24 h or +24 h, protected 4/5 mice in either condition; this has demonstrated the protective efficacy of this Mab in vivo for the first time. These results add to the cumulative data about Mab7.3, which is currently being humanized and highlight its potential as a human immunotherapeutic for plague, which is an enduring endemic disease in Madagascar and other regions of Africa, Asia, and South America.

The impact of COVID-19 on clinical research for Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs): A case study of bubonic plague.

BACKGROUND: Among the many collaterals of the COVID-19 pandemic is the disruption of health services and vital clinical research. COVID-19 has magnified the challenges faced in research and threatens to slow research for urgently needed therapeutics for Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) and diseases affecting the most vulnerable populations. Here we explore the impact of the pandemic on a clinical trial for plague therapeutics and strategies that have been considered to ensure research efforts continue. METHODS: To understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the trial accrual rate, we documented changes in patterns of all-cause consultations that took place before and during the pandemic at health centres in two districts of the Amoron'I Mania region of Madagascar where the trial is underway. We also considered trends in plague reporting and other external factors that may have contributed to slow recruitment. RESULTS: During the pandemic, we found a 27% decrease in consultations at the referral hospital, compared to an 11% increase at peripheral health centres, as well as an overall drop during the months of lockdown. We also found a nation-wide trend towards reduced number of reported plague cases. DISCUSSION: COVID-19 outbreaks are unlikely to dissipate in the near future. Declining NTD case numbers recorded during the pandemic period should not be viewed in isolation or taken as a marker of things to come. It is vitally important that researchers are prepared for a rebound in cases and, most importantly, that research continues to avoid NTDs becoming even more neglected.

Rodent control to fight plague: field assessment of methods based on rat density reduction.

Rodents represent a serious threat to food security and public health. The extent to which rodent control can mitigate the risk from rodent-borne disease depends on both the effectiveness of control in reducing rodent abundance and the impact on disease epidemiology. Focusing on a plague-endemic region of Madagascar, this study compared the effectiveness of 3 methods: live-traps, snap-traps, and rodenticides. Control interventions were implemented inside houses between May and October 2019. Tracking tiles monitored rodent abundance. Rodent fleas, the vector involved in plague transmission, were collected. Rodent populations consisted of Rattus rattus and Mus musculus. In terms of trap success, we found that our live-trap regime was more effective than snap-traps. While all 3 control strategies appeared to reduce in-house rodent activity in the short term, we found no evidence of a longer-term effect, with in-house rodent abundance in treated sites comparable to non-treatment sites by the following month. Endemic flea, Synopsyllus fonquerniei, is a key plague vector usually found on rats living outdoors. Although we found no evidence that its abundance inside houses increased following control, this may have been due to a lack of power caused by significant variation in S. fonquerniei abundance. The presence of S. fonquerniei in houses was more likely when S. fonquerniei abundance on outdoor rats was higher, which in turn correlated with high rat abundance. Our results emphasize that control strategies need to consider this connectivity between in-house rat-flea populations and the outdoor populations, and any potential consequences for plague transmission.

Development and evaluation of loop-mediated isothermal amplification for detection of Yersinia pestis in plague biological samples.

BACKGROUND: Several tests are available for plague confirmation but bacteriological culture with Yersinia pestis strain isolation remains the gold standard according to the World Health Organization. However, this is a time consuming procedure; requiring specific devices and well-qualified staff. In addition, strain isolation is challenging if antibiotics have been administered prior to sampling. Here, we developed a loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) technique, a rapid, simple, sensitive and specific technique that would be able to detect Y. pestis in human biological samples. METHODS: LAMP primers were designed to target the caf1 gene which is specific to Y. pestis. The detection limit was determined by testing 10-fold serial dilution of Y. pestis DNA. Cross-reactivity was tested using DNA extracts from 14 pathogens and 47 residual samples from patients suffering from non-plague diseases. Specificity and sensitivity of the LAMP caf1 were assessed on DNA extracts of 160 human biological samples. Then, the performance of the LAMP caf1 assay was compared to conventional PCR and bacteriological culture. RESULTS: The detection limit of the developed Y. pestis LAMP assay was 3.79 pg/µl, similar to conventional PCR. The result could be read out within 45 min and as early as 35 minutes in presence of loop primer, using a simple water bath at 63°C. This is superior to culture with respect to time (requires up to 10 days) and simplicity of equipment compared to PCR. Furthermore, no cross-reactivity was found when tested on DNA extracts from other pathogens and human biological samples from patients with non-plague diseases. Compared to the gold standard, LAMP sensitivity and specificity were 97.9% (95% CI: 89.1%-99.9%) and 94.6% (95% CI: 88.6%-97.9%), respectively. CONCLUSION: LAMP detected Y. pestis effectively with high sensitivity and specificity in human plague biological samples. It can potentially be used in the field during outbreaks in resource limited countries such as Madagascar.