Future climate change effects on US forest composition may offset benefits of reduced atmospheric deposition of N and S.

Climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) are important drivers of forest demography. Here we apply previously derived growth and survival responses for 94 tree species, representing >90% of the contiguous US forest basal area, to project how changes in mean annual temperature, precipitation, and N and S deposition from 20 different future scenarios may affect forest composition to 2100. We find that under the low climate change scenario (RCP 4.5), reductions in aboveground tree biomass from higher temperatures are roughly offset by increases in aboveground tree biomass from reductions in N and S deposition. However, under the higher climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) the decreases from climate change overwhelm increases from reductions in N and S deposition. These broad trends underlie wide variation among species. We found averaged across temperature scenarios the relative abundance of 60 species were projected to decrease more than 5% and 20 species were projected to increase more than 5%; and reductions of N and S deposition led to a decrease for 13 species and an increase for 40 species. This suggests large shifts in the composition of US forests in the future. Negative climate effects were mostly from elevated temperature and were not offset by scenarios with wetter conditions. We found that by 2100 an estimated 1 billion trees under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 20 billion trees under the RCP 8.5 scenario may be pushed outside the temperature record upon which these relationships were derived. These results may not fully capture future changes in forest composition as several other factors were not included. Overall efforts to reduce atmospheric deposition of N and S will likely be insufficient to overcome climate change impacts on forest demography across much of the United States unless we adhere to the low climate change scenario.

Race and smoking status associated with paclitaxel drug response in patient-derived lymphoblastoid cell lines.

The use of ex-vivo model systems to provide a level of forecasting for in-vivo characteristics remains an important need for cancer therapeutics. The use of lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCLs) is an attractive approach for pharmacogenomics and toxicogenomics, due to their scalability, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness. There is little data on the impact of demographic or clinical covariates on LCL response to chemotherapy. Paclitaxel sensitivity was determined in LCLs from 93 breast cancer patients from the University of North Carolina Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center Breast Cancer Database to test for potential associations and/or confounders in paclitaxel dose-response assays. Measures of paclitaxel cell viability were associated with patient data included treatment regimens, cancer status, demographic and environmental variables, and clinical outcomes. We used multivariate analysis of variance to identify the in-vivo variables associated with ex-vivo dose-response. In this unique dataset that includes both in-vivo and ex-vivo data from breast cancer patients, race (P = 0.0049) and smoking status (P = 0.0050) were found to be significantly associated with ex-vivo dose-response in LCLs. Racial differences in clinical dose-response have been previously described, but the smoking association has not been reported. Our results indicate that in-vivo smoking status can influence ex-vivo dose-response in LCLs, and more precise measures of covariates may allow for more precise forecasting of clinical effect. In addition, understanding the mechanism by which exposure to smoking in-vivo effects ex-vivo dose-response in LCLs may open up new avenues in the quest for better therapeutic prediction.

Structural-based connectivity and omic phenotype evaluations (SCOPE): a cheminformatics toolbox for investigating lipidomic changes in complex systems.

Since its inception, the main goal of the lipidomics field has been to characterize lipid species and their respective biological roles. However, difficulties in both full speciation and biological interpretation have rendered these objectives extremely challenging and as a result, limited our understanding of lipid mechanisms and dysregulation. While mass spectrometry-based advancements have significantly increased the ability to identify lipid species, less progress has been made surrounding biological interpretations. We have therefore developed a Structural-based Connectivity and Omic Phenotype Evaluations (SCOPE) cheminformatics toolbox to aid in these evaluations. SCOPE enables the assessment and visualization of two main lipidomic associations: structure/biological connections and metadata linkages either separately or in tandem. To assess structure and biological relationships, SCOPE utilizes key lipid structural moieties such as head group and fatty acyl composition and links them to their respective biological relationships through hierarchical clustering and grouped heatmaps. Metadata arising from phenotypic and environmental factors such as age and diet is then correlated with the lipid structures and/or biological relationships, utilizing Toxicological Prioritization Index (ToxPi) software. Here, SCOPE is demonstrated for various applications from environmental studies to clinical assessments to showcase new biological connections not previously observed with other techniques.

Ion Mobility Spectrometry and the Omics: Distinguishing Isomers, Molecular Classes and Contaminant Ions in Complex Samples.

Ion mobility spectrometry (IMS) is a widely used analytical technique providing rapid gas phase separations. IMS alone is useful, but its coupling with mass spectrometry (IMS-MS) and various front-end separation techniques has greatly increased the molecular information achievable from different omic analyses. IMS-MS analyses are specifically gaining attention for improving metabolomic, lipidomic, glycomic, proteomic and exposomic analyses by increasing measurement sensitivity (e.g. S/N ratio), reducing the detection limit, and amplifying peak capacity. Numerous studies including national security-related analyses, disease screenings and environmental evaluations are illustrating that IMS-MS is able to extract information not possible with MS alone. Furthermore, IMS-MS has shown great utility in salvaging molecular information for low abundance molecules of interest when high concentration contaminant ions are present in the sample by reducing detector suppression. This review highlights how IMS-MS is currently being used in omic analyses to distinguish structurally similar molecules, isomers, molecular classes and contaminant ions.

TreeScaper: Visualizing and Extracting Phylogenetic Signal from Sets of Trees.

Modern phylogenomic analyses often result in large collections of phylogenetic trees representing uncertainty in individual gene trees, variation across genes, or both. Extracting phylogenetic signal from these tree sets can be challenging, as they are difficult to visualize, explore, and quantify. To overcome some of these challenges, we have developed TreeScaper, an application for tree set visualization as well as the identification of distinct phylogenetic signals. GUI and command-line versions of TreeScaper and a manual with tutorials can be downloaded from https://github.com/whuang08/TreeScaper/releases TreeScaper is distributed under the GNU General Public License.

Tracking lags in historical plant species' shifts in relation to regional climate change.

Can species shift their distributions fast enough to track changes in climate? We used abundance data from the 1950s and the 2000s in Wisconsin to measure shifts in the distribution and abundance of 78 forest-understory plant species over the last half-century and compare these shifts to changes in climate. We estimated temporal shifts in the geographic distribution of each species using vectors to connect abundance-weighted centroids from the 1950s and 2000s. These shifts in distribution reflect colonization, extirpation, and changes in abundance within sites, separately quantified here. We then applied climate analog analyses to compute vectors representing the climate change that each species experienced. Species shifted mostly to the northwest (mean: 49 ± 29 km) primarily reflecting processes of colonization and changes in local abundance. Analog climates for these species shifted even further to the northwest, however, exceeding species' shifts by an average of 90 ± 40 km. Most species thus failed to match recent rates of climate change. These lags decline in species that have colonized more sites and those with broader site occupancy, larger seed mass, and higher habitat fidelity. Thus, species' traits appear to affect their responses to climate change, but relationships are weak. As climate change accelerates, these lags will likely increase, potentially threatening the persistence of species lacking the capacity to disperse to new sites or locally adapt. However, species with greater lags have not yet declined more in abundance. The extent of these threats will likely depend on how other drivers of ecological change and interactions among species affect their responses to climate change.

Characterizing the Chemical Space of ERK2 Kinase Inhibitors Using Descriptors Computed from Molecular Dynamics Trajectories.

Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models typically rely on 2D and 3D molecular descriptors to characterize chemicals and forecast their experimental activities. Previously, we showed that even the most reliable 2D QSAR models and structure-based 3D molecular docking techniques were not capable of accurately ranking a set of known inhibitors for the ERK2 kinase, a key player in various types of cancer. Herein, we calculated and analyzed a series of chemical descriptors computed from the molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories of ERK2-ligand complexes. First, the docking of 87 ERK2 ligands with known binding affinities was accomplished using Schrodinger's Glide software; then, solvent-explicit MD simulations (20 ns, NPT, 300 K, TIP3P, 1 fs) were performed using the GPU-accelerated Desmond program. Second, we calculated a series of MD descriptors based on the distributions of 3D descriptors computed for representative samples of the ligand's conformations over the MD simulations. Third, we analyzed the data set of 87 inhibitors in the MD chemical descriptor space. We showed that MD descriptors (i) had little correlation with conventionally used 2D/3D descriptors, (ii) were able to distinguish the most active ERK2 inhibitors from the moderate/weak actives and inactives, and (iii) provided key and complementary information about the unique characteristics of active ligands. This study represents the largest attempt to utilize MD-extracted chemical descriptors to characterize and model a series of bioactive molecules. MD descriptors could enable the next generation of hyperpredictive MD-QSAR models for computer-aided lead optimization and analogue prioritization.

Archaeological evidence of an ethnographically documented Australian Aboriginal ritual dated to the last ice age.

In societies without writing, ethnographically known rituals have rarely been tracked back archaeologically more than a few hundred years. At the invitation of GunaiKurnai Aboriginal Elders, we undertook archaeological excavations at Cloggs Cave in the foothills of the Australian Alps. In GunaiKurnai Country, caves were not used as residential places during the early colonial period (mid-nineteenth century CE), but as secluded retreats for the performance of rituals by Aboriginal medicine men and women known as 'mulla-mullung', as documented by ethnographers. Here we report the discovery of buried 11,000- and 12,000-year-old miniature fireplaces with protruding trimmed wooden artefacts made of Casuarina wood smeared with animal or human fat, matching the configuration and contents of GunaiKurnai ritual installations described in nineteenth-century ethnography. These findings represent 500 generations of cultural transmission of an ethnographically documented ritual practice that dates back to the end of the last ice age and that contains Australia's oldest known wooden artefacts.

Confidence bands and hypothesis tests for hit enrichment curves.

In virtual screening for drug discovery, hit enrichment curves are widely used to assess the performance of ranking algorithms with regard to their ability to identify early enrichment. Unfortunately, researchers almost never consider the uncertainty associated with estimating such curves before declaring differences between performance of competing algorithms. Uncertainty is often large because the testing fractions of interest to researchers are small. Appropriate inference is complicated by two sources of correlation that are often overlooked: correlation across different testing fractions within a single algorithm, and correlation between competing algorithms. Additionally, researchers are often interested in making comparisons along the entire curve, not only at a few testing fractions. We develop inferential procedures to address both the needs of those interested in a few testing fractions, as well as those interested in the entire curve. For the former, four hypothesis testing and (pointwise) confidence intervals are investigated, and a newly developed EmProc approach is found to be most effective. For inference along entire curves, EmProc-based confidence bands are recommended for simultaneous coverage and minimal width. While we focus on the hit enrichment curve, this work is also appropriate for lift curves that are used throughout the machine learning community. Our inferential procedures trivially extend to enrichment factors, as well.

Unveiling molecular signatures of preeclampsia and gestational diabetes mellitus with multi-omics and innovative cheminformatics visualization tools.

To fully enable the development of diagnostic tools and progressive pharmaceutical drugs, it is imperative to understand the molecular changes occurring before and during disease onset and progression. Systems biology assessments utilizing multi-omic analyses (e.g. the combination of proteomics, lipidomics, genomics, etc.) have shown enormous value in determining molecules prevalent in diseases and their associated mechanisms. Herein, we utilized multi-omic evaluations, multi-dimensional analysis methods, and new cheminformatics-based visualization tools to provide an in depth understanding of the molecular changes taking place in preeclampsia (PRE) and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) patients. Since PRE and GDM are two prevalent pregnancy complications that result in adverse health effects for both the mother and fetus during pregnancy and later in life, a better understanding of each is essential. The multi-omic evaluations performed here provide new insight into the end-stage molecular profiles of each disease, thereby supplying information potentially crucial for earlier diagnosis and treatments.

4D- quantitative structure-activity relationship modeling: making a comeback.

Introduction: Predictive Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) modeling has become an essential methodology for rapidly assessing various properties of chemicals. The vast majority of these QSAR models utilize numerical descriptors derived from the two- and/or three-dimensional structures of molecules. However, the conformation-dependent characteristics of flexible molecules and their dynamic interactions with biological target(s) is/are not encoded by these descriptors, leading to limited prediction performances and reduced interpretability. 2D/3D QSAR models are successful for virtual screening, but typically suffer at lead optimization stages. That is why conformation-dependent 4D-QSAR modeling methods were developed two decades ago. However, these methods have always suffered from the associated computational cost. Recently, 4D-QSAR has been experiencing a significant come-back due to rapid advances in GPU-accelerated molecular dynamic simulations and modern machine learning techniques. Areas covered: Herein, the authors briefly review the literature regarding 4D-QSAR modeling and describe its modern workflow called MD-QSAR. Challenges and current limitations are also highlighted. Expert opinion: The development of hyper-predictive MD-QSAR models could represent a disruptive technology for analyzing, understanding, and optimizing dynamic protein-ligand interactions with countless applications for drug discovery and chemical toxicity assessment. Therefore, there has never been a better time and relevance for molecular modeling teams to engage in hyper-predictive MD-QSAR modeling.

Cheminformatics approach to exploring and modeling trait-associated metabolite profiles.

Developing predictive and transparent approaches to the analysis of metabolite profiles across patient cohorts is of critical importance for understanding the events that trigger or modulate traits of interest (e.g., disease progression, drug metabolism, chemical risk assessment). However, metabolites' chemical structures are still rarely used in the statistical modeling workflows that establish these trait-metabolite relationships. Herein, we present a novel cheminformatics-based approach capable of identifying predictive, interpretable, and reproducible trait-metabolite relationships. As a proof-of-concept, we utilize a previously published case study consisting of metabolite profiles from non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) adenocarcinoma patients and healthy controls. By characterizing each structurally annotated metabolite using both computed molecular descriptors and patient metabolite concentration profiles, we show that these complementary features enhance the identification and understanding of key metabolites associated with cancer. Ultimately, we built multi-metabolite classification models for assessing patients' cancer status using specific groups of metabolites identified based on high structural similarity through chemical clustering. We subsequently performed a metabolic pathway enrichment analysis to identify potential mechanistic relationships between metabolites and NSCLC adenocarcinoma. This cheminformatics-inspired approach relies on the metabolites' structural features and chemical properties to provide critical information about metabolite-trait associations. This method could ultimately facilitate biological understanding and advance research based on metabolomics data, especially with respect to the identification of novel biomarkers.

chemmodlab: a cheminformatics modeling laboratory R package for fitting and assessing machine learning models.

The goal of chemmodlab is to streamline the fitting and assessment pipeline for many machine learning models in R, making it easy for researchers to compare the utility of these models. While focused on implementing methods for model fitting and assessment that have been accepted by experts in the cheminformatics field, all of the methods in chemmodlab have broad utility for the machine learning community. chemmodlab contains several assessment utilities, including a plotting function that constructs accumulation curves and a function that computes many performance measures. The most novel feature of chemmodlab is the ease with which statistically significant performance differences for many machine learning models is presented by means of the multiple comparisons similarity plot. Differences are assessed using repeated k-fold cross validation, where blocking increases precision and multiplicity adjustments are applied. chemmodlab is freely available on CRAN at https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/chemmodlab/index.html .