Metabolomics as a tool to predict the risk of decompensation or liver-related death in patients with compensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with compensated cirrhosis with clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH: HVPG > 10 mm Hg) have a high risk of decompensation. HVPG is, however, an invasive procedure not available in all centers. The present study aims to assess whether metabolomics can improve the capacity of clinical models in predicting clinical outcomes in these compensated patients. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This is a nested study from the PREDESCI cohort (an RCT of nonselective beta-blockers vs. placebo in 201 patients with compensated cirrhosis and CSPH), including 167 patients for whom a blood sample was collected. A targeted metabolomic serum analysis, using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, was performed. Metabolites underwent univariate time-to-event cox regression analysis. Top-ranked metabolites were selected using Log-Rank p -value to generate a stepwise cox model. Comparison between models was done using DeLong test. Eighty-two patients with CSPH were randomized to nonselective beta-blockers and 85 to placebo. Thirty-three patients developed the main endpoint (decompensation/liver-related death). The model, including HVPG, Child-Pugh, and treatment received ( HVPG/Clinical model ), had a C-index of 0.748 (CI95% 0.664-0.827). The addition of 2 metabolites, ceramide (d18:1/22:0) and methionine (HVPG/Clinical/Metabolite model), significantly improved the model's performance [C-index of 0.808 (CI95% 0.735-0.882); p =0.032]. The combination of these 2 metabolites together with Child-Pugh and the type of treatment received (Clinical/Metabolite model) had a C-index of 0.785 (CI95% 0.710-0.860), not significantly different from the HVPG-based models including or not metabolites. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with compensated cirrhosis and CSPH, metabolomics improves the capacity of clinical models and achieves similar predictive capacity than models including HVPG.

Point-of-Care Noninvasive Prediction of Liver-Related Events in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Individual risk prediction of liver-related events (LRE) is needed for clinical assessment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) patients. We aimed to provide point-of-care validated liver stiffness measurement (LSM)-based risk prediction models for the development of LRE in patients with NAFLD, focusing on selecting patients for clinical trials at risk of clinical events. METHODS: Two large multicenter cohorts were evaluated, 2638 NAFLD patients covering all LSM values as the derivation cohort and 679 more advanced patients as the validation cohort. We used Cox regression to develop and validate risk prediction models based on LSM alone, and the ANTICIPATE and ANTICIPATE-NASH models for clinically significant portal hypertension. The main outcome of the study was the rate of LRE in the first 3 years after initial assessment. RESULTS: The 3 predictive models had similar performance in the derivation cohort with a very high discriminative value (c-statistic, 0.87-0.91). In the validation cohort, the LSM-LRE alone model had a significant inferior discrimination (c-statistic, 0.75) compared with the other 2 models, whereas the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model (0.81) was significantly better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model (0.79). In addition, the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model presented very good calibration in the validation cohort (integrated calibration index, 0.016), and was better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model. CONCLUSIONS: The ANTICIPATE-LRE models, and especially the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model, could be valuable validated clinical tools to individually assess the risk of LRE at 3 years in patients with NAFLD/NASH.

An international survey on patterns of practice in NAFLD and expectations for therapies-The POP-NEXT project.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Differences between countries in NAFLD patient care pathways and management need to be understood prior to defining supranational guidelines. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We conducted an anonymous survey in France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Romania, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States among physicians providing specialist care for patients with NAFLD. Modalities of patient referral, patterns of practice (diagnosis, staging, monitoring, and indications for liver biopsy), therapeutic management, and expectations for future NASH pharmacotherapies were assessed, with 664 physicians completing the survey. Referral to surveyed physicians (SPs) mostly came from primary care. Prior to referral, NAFLD was rarely diagnosed, and noninvasive tests were not performed. Screening for comorbidities by SPs was incomplete and cardiovascular risk not calculated. Elastometry in combination with a serum biomarker was the most common first-line method for fibrosis staging. Liver biopsy, when performed, was often delayed by at least 1 year after diagnosis. It was, however, recommended even if noninvasive methods indicated advanced fibrosis. Frequent, biannual monitoring was conducted, including HCC surveillance in Stage 3 fibrosis. SPs rarely implemented and followed dietary and lifestyle changes themselves, and local availability of such programs was highly heterogenous. SPs favored pharmacotherapy based on mechanism of action adapted to the stage of the disease, including for early stages such as steatohepatitis with mild fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: This international survey revealed major deficiencies and delays in referral pathways, suboptimal screening for comorbidities or managing of lifestyle modifications by SPs, and limited local availability for nonpharmacological interventions. Monitoring practices are not aligned with current guidelines.

Population screening for liver fibrosis: Toward early diagnosis and intervention for chronic liver diseases.

Cirrhosis, highly prevalent worldwide, develops after years of hepatic inflammation triggering progressive fibrosis. Currently, the main etiologies of cirrhosis are non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-related liver disease, although chronic hepatitis B and C infections are still major etiological factors in some areas of the world. Recent studies have shown that liver fibrosis can be assessed with relatively high accuracy noninvasively by serological tests, transient elastography, and radiological methods. These modalities may be utilized for screening for liver fibrosis in at-risk populations. Thus far, a limited number of population-based studies using noninvasive tests in different areas of the world indicate that a significant percentage of subjects without known liver disease (around 5% in general populations and a higher rate -18% to 27%-in populations with risk factors for liver disease) have significant undetected liver fibrosis or established cirrhosis. Larger international studies are required to show the harms and benefits before concluding that screening for liver fibrosis should be applied to populations at risk for chronic liver diseases. Screening for liver fibrosis has the potential for changing the current approach from diagnosing chronic liver diseases late when patients have already developed complications of cirrhosis to diagnosing liver fibrosis in asymptomatic subjects providing the opportunity of preventing disease progression.

Prediction of clinical events by liver stiffness and chronic kidney disease by NAFLD in patients with type-2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with poorer glycemic control and a higher risk of type-2 diabetes (T2D) complications, extrahepatic and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Our study aim was to evaluate the association between NAFLD, T2D complications, and the development of overall clinical events (OCE) (CV, liver-related, and mortality) in patients with T2D. METHODS: Prospective single-center study comprising T2D subjects with no history of CVD and non-T2D matched controls. Patients were selected from the Outpatient Diabetes Clinic of Vall d'Hebron Hospital and related primary care centers. RESULTS: 186 diabetics and 57 controls were included. Amongst T2D, 124/186 subjects had NAFLD (66.6%). T2D-NAFLD subjects showed a heavier metabolic burden and higher median liver stiffness (5.6kPa [4.5-7.3] vs 4.8 [4.2-5.8]; p=0.004) compared to non-NAFLD diabetics. During a median follow-up of 5.6 years, 33 (17.7%) T2D patients developed OCE vs 4 (7.0%) controls (p=0.049). No differences were found for OCE between NAFLD and non-NAFLD diabetics (16.9% vs 19.4%; p=0.68). CV was the most reported outcome and only one liver event occurred. NAFLD diabetics showed more often chronic kidney disease (CKD), whereas T2D complications and subclinical CVD rates were similar. A higher liver stiffness, older age, and male gender were independently associated with OCE amongst the entire T2D population and NAFLD diabetics. CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD and liver stiffness were associated with CKD and clinical outcomes in diabetics, respectively. A hepatic evaluation is recommended to identify high-risk T2D patients that would benefit from early referral to specialized care.

[Metabolic morbidity in the prison population of Catalonia, Spain]. / Morbilidad metabólica en la población penitenciaria de Cataluña.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence of metabolic morbidity (MM) amongst prison inmates. DESIGN: Multicentric, cross-sectional observational study. SETTING: All (nine) prisons in Catalonia. PARTICIPANTS: Convicted inmates that are not in an «open regime¼, whose healthcare relies on the Prison Primary Care Teams. INTERVENTIONS: MM was defined as the presence of at least one component of the metabolic syndrome, i.e., obesity, arterial hypertension, type2 diabetes, and/or dyslipidemia. The variables collected included anthropometric measurements, medical history and laboratory values related to MM. The source of information was the Catalan Primary Healthcare Services Information System (SISAP). MAIN MEASUREMENTS: The prevalence of MM, overall and by several participant subcategories, was calculated. To investigate the risk factors associated to a higher prevalence of MM, a multivariable logistic regression analysis was carried out and expressed as adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: 4338 inmates were studied, of whom 93.9% were male. Mean age was 38.4years, 51.7% were born in European Union countries, and 6.7% were infected by HIV. The variables associated with a significantly increased risk of presenting MM were older age and HIV infection, whereas certain geographical origins (i.e., non-UE European countries, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa) were associated with lower risk of MM. CONCLUSIONS: In spite of being an overall young population, prison inmates present high rates of MM. Older age, HIV infection and geographic origin appear as the most strongly associated factors with MM in the prison population. MM should be detected early in order to prevent complications. Prevention, screening and treatment of MM ought to be considered a priority in the clinical routine of prison healthcare professionals.

Decompensation in Advanced Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease May Occur at Lower Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient Levels Than in Patients With Viral Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Portal hypertension is the strongest predictor of hepatic decompensation and death in patients with cirrhosis. However, its discriminatory accuracy in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been challenged because hepatic vein catheterization may not reflect the real portal vein pressure as accurately as in patients with other etiologies. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) and presence of portal hypertension-related decompensation in patients with advanced NAFLD (aNAFLD). METHODS: Multicenter cross-sectional study included 548 patients with aNAFLD and 444 with advanced RNA-positive hepatitis C (aHCV) who had detailed portal hypertension evaluation (HVPG measurement, gastroscopy, and abdominal imaging). We examined the relationship between etiology, HVPG, and decompensation by logistic regression models. We also compared the proportions of compensated/decompensated patients at different HVPG levels. RESULTS: Both cohorts, aNAFLD and aHVC, had similar baseline age, gender, Child-Pugh score, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. Median HVPG was lower in the aNAFLD cohort (13 vs 15 mmHg) despite similar liver function and higher rates of decompensation in aNAFLD group (32% vs 25%; P = .019) than in the aHCV group. For any of the HVPG cutoff analyzed (<10, 10-12, or 12 mmHg) the prevalence of decompensation was higher in the aNAFLD group than in the aHCV group. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with aNAFLD have higher prevalence of portal hypertension-related decompensation at any value of HVPG as compared with aHCV patients. Longitudinal studies aiming to identify HVPG thresholds able to predict decompensation and long-term outcomes in aNAFLD population are strongly needed.

Prevalence estimation of significant fibrosis because of NASH in Spain combining transient elastography and histology.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become a major public health problem, but the prevalence of fibrosis associated with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is largely unknown in the general population. This study aimed to provide an updated estimation of the prevalence of NASH fibrosis in Spain. METHODS: This was an observational, retrospective, cross-sectional, population-based study with merged data from two Spanish datasets: a large (N = 12 246) population-based cohort (ETHON), including transient elastography (TE) data, and a contemporary multi-centric biopsy-proven NASH cohort with paired TE data from tertiary centres (N = 501). Prevalence for each NASH fibrosis stage was estimated by crossing TE data from ETHON dataset with histology data from the biopsy-proven cohort. RESULTS: From the patients with valid TE in ETHON dataset (N = 11 440), 5.61% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 2.53-11.97) had a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≥ 8 kPa. The proportion attributable to NAFLD (using clinical variables and Controlled Attenuation Parameter) was 57.3% and thus, the estimated prevalence of population with LSM ≥ 8 kPa because of NAFLD was 3.21% (95% CI 1.13-8.75). In the biopsy-proven NASH cohort, 389 patients had LSM ≥ 8 kPa. Among these, 37% did not have significant fibrosis (F2-4). The estimated prevalence of NASH F2-3 and cirrhosis in Spain's adult population were 1.33% (95% CI 0.29-5.98) and 0.70% (95% CI 0.10-4.95) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These estimations provide an accurate picture of the current prevalence of NASH-related fibrosis in Spain and can serve as reference point for dimensioning the therapeutic efforts that will be required as NASH therapies become available.

Bacterial infections adversely influence the risk of decompensation and survival in compensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prognosis of compensated cirrhosis is good until decompensation. In decompensated cirrhosis, bacterial infections (BIs) are common and increase the risk of death. The incidence and prognostic implications of BIs in compensated cirrhosis are less-well characterized. This study aimed to assess whether BIs influence the risk of decompensation and survival in patients with compensated cirrhosis. METHODS: This is a cohort study nested to the PREDESCI study, a double-blind, multicenter, randomized controlled trial designed to assess whether ß-blockers could prevent decompensation of cirrhosis. Patients with compensated cirrhosis and hepatic venous pressure gradient ≥10 mmHg were included. Development of BIs during follow-up was prospectively registered. Using a competing-risk time-dependent regression analysis, we investigated whether BIs affect the risk of decompensation and survival. Decompensation was defined as development of ascites, bleeding or overt encephalopathy. RESULTS: A total of 201 patients were randomized and followed for a median of 36 months (IQR 24-47 months); 34 patients (17%) developed BIs, which occurred before decompensation in 33 cases, and 29 (14%) developed ascites. Respiratory and urinary tract infections were the most frequent BIs. Decompensation occurred in 26% patients with BIs vs. 16% without BIs. Patients with BIs were at higher risk of decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 2.93; 95% CI 1.02-8.42; p = 0.047) and of developing ascites (SHR 3.55; 95% CI 1.21-10.47; p = 0.022) than those without BIs. Risk of death was also higher in patients with BIs (subdistribution HR 6.93; 95% CI 2.64-18.18; p <0.001), although decompensation occurred before death in 71% of such cases. CONCLUSIONS: BIs have a marked impact on the natural history of compensated cirrhosis, significantly increasing the risk of decompensation, mainly that of ascites, and increasing the risk of death, which usually occurs after decompensation. Our results suggest that BIs may constitute a target to prevent decompensation. LAY SUMMARY: It is widely known that bacterial infections are common and increase the mortality risk in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. However, the relevance of bacterial infections in compensated cirrhosis has not been well studied. This study shows that in patients with compensated cirrhosis and clinically significant portal hypertension, bacterial infections occur as frequently as the development of ascites, which is the most frequent decompensating event. Bacterial infections increase the risk of progression to decompensation, mainly by increasing the risk of ascites, and also increase the risk of death, which usually occurs after decompensation. CLINICALTRIALS. GOV IDENTIFIER: NCT01059396.

Noninvasive Diagnosis of Portal Hypertension in Patients With Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to explore the prevalence of portal hypertension in the most common etiologies of patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) and develop classification rules, based on liver stiffness measurement (LSM), that could be readily used to diagnose or exclude clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) in clinical practice. METHODS: This is an international cohort study including patients with paired LSM/hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), LSM ≥10 kPa, and no previous decompensation. Portal hypertension was defined by an HVPG >5 mm Hg. A positive predictive value ≥90% was considered to validate LSM cutoffs for CSPH (HVPG ≥10 mm Hg), whereas a negative predictive value ≥90% ruled out CSPH. RESULTS: A total of 836 patients with hepatitis C (n = 358), nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH, n = 248), alcohol use (n = 203), and hepatitis B (n = 27) were evaluated. Portal hypertension prevalence was >90% in all cACLD etiologies, except for patients with NASH (60.9%), being even lower in obese patients with NASH (53.3%); these lower prevalences of portal hypertension in patients with NASH were maintained across different strata of LSM values. LSM ≥25 kPa was the best cutoff to rule in CSPH in alcoholic liver disease, chronic hepatitis B, chronic hepatitis C, and nonobese patients with NASH, whereas in obese NASH patients, the positive predictive value was only 62.8%. A new model for patients with NASH (ANTICIPATE-NASH model) to predict CSPH considering body mass index, LSM, and platelet count was developed, and a nomogram was constructed. LSM ≤15 kPa plus platelets ≥150 × 10/L ruled out CSPH in most etiologies. DISCUSSION: Patients with cACLD of NASH etiology, especially obese patients with NASH, present lower prevalences of portal hypertension compared with other cACLD etiologies. LSM ≥25 kPa is sufficient to rule in CSPH in most etiologies, including nonobese patients with NASH, but not in obese patients with NASH.

Outcomes and potential surrogate markers for future clinical trials of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis.

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis has emerged as a major public health problem, and the burden of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis is projected to increase by 64%-156% by 2030. The threat is aggravated by the fact that are currently no approved drugs for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. In this paper, we review the main challenges to drug development in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis, and describe the opportunities brought by the advances in the understanding of the clinical and pathophysiological nuances of cirrhosis. The design of therapeutic regimens for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis will vary according to the specific cirrhosis substage (compensated vs decompensated), and the specific mechanistic basis of therapy, targeted either at improving aetiology-specific pathways and/or at more general aetiology-agnostic processes. The understanding of the probabilistic expectations for the whole range of potential outcomes, rooted at different mechanistic drivers at each specific substage, will be essential in order to choose adequate estimands and therapeutic strategies for clinical trials and individual patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis. Finally, we provide a summary of the main pitfalls and uncertainties in the design of clinical trials for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis and discuss potential biomarkers for use in trials and practice for these patients.

Disease burden and economic impact of diagnosed non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in five European countries in 2018: A cost-of-illness analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a chronic disease that can progress to end-stage liver disease (ESLD). A large proportion of early-stage NASH patients remain undiagnosed compared to those with advanced fibrosis, who are more likely to receive disease management interventions. This study estimated the disease burden and economic impact of diagnosed NASH in the adult population of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom in 2018. METHODS: The socioeconomic burden of diagnosed NASH was estimated using cost-of-illness methodology applying a prevalence approach to estimate the number of adults with NASH and the attributable economic and wellbeing costs. Given undiagnosed patients do not incur costs in the study, the probability of diagnosis is central to cost estimation. The analysis was based on a literature review, databases and consultation with clinical experts, economists and patient groups. RESULTS: The proportion of adult NASH patients with a diagnosis ranged from 11.9% to 12.7% across countries, which increased to 38.8%-39.1% for advanced fibrosis (F3-F4 compensated cirrhosis). Total economic costs were €8548-19 546M. Of these, health system costs were €619-1292M. Total wellbeing costs were €41 536-90 379M. The majority of the undiagnosed population (87.3%-88.2% of total prevalence) was found to have early-stage NASH, which, left untreated, may progress to more resource consuming ESLD over time. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that the majority of economic and wellbeing costs of NASH are experienced in late disease stages. Earlier diagnosis and care of NASH patients could reduce future healthcare costs.

Definite and indeterminate nonalcoholic steatohepatitis share similar clinical features and prognosis: A longitudinal study of 1893 biopsy-proven nonalcoholic fatty liver disease subjects.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Histological score systems may not fully capture the essential nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) features, which is one of the leading causes of screening failure in clinical trials. We assessed the NASH distribution and its components across the fibrosis stages and their impact on the prognosis and their relationship with the concept of metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). METHODS: Spanish multicenter study including 1893 biopsy-proven nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients from HEPAmet registry. NASH was diagnosed by NAS score ≥4 (including steatosis, ballooning and lobular inflammation) and fibrosis by Kleiner score. The presence of MAFLD was determined. Progression to cirrhosis, first episode of decompensated cirrhosis and death were collected during the follow-up (4.7 ± 3.8 years). RESULTS: Fibrosis was F0 34.3% (649/1893), F1 27% (511/1893), F2 16.5% (312/1893), F3 15% (284/1893) and F4 7.2% (137/1893). NASH diagnosis 51.9% (982/1893), and its individual components (severe steatosis, ballooning and lobular inflammation), increased from F0 (33.6%) to F2 (68.6%), and decreased significantly in F4 patients (51.8%) (P = .0001). More than 70% of non-NASH patients showed some inflammatory activity (ballooning or lobular inflammation), showing a similar MAFLD rate than NASH (96.2% [945/982] vs. 95.2% [535/562]) and significantly higher than nonalcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) subjects (89.1% [311/349]) (P < .0001). Progression to cirrhosis was similar between NASH (9.5% [51/539]) and indeterminate NASH (7.9% [25/316]), and higher than steatosis (5% [14/263]) (logRank 8.417; P = .015). Death and decompensated cirrhosis were similar between these. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of steatohepatitis decreased in advanced liver disease. However, most of these patients showed some inflammatory activity histologically and had metabolic disturbances. These findings should be considered in clinical trials whose main aim is to prevent cirrhosis progression and complications, liver transplant and death.

Overall clinical and economic impact of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

OBJECTIVES: to establish the clinical and economic consequences (resource utilization and healthcare costs) of non-alcoholic fatty liver in the setting of the usual clinical practice in Spain. PATIENTS AND METHODS: an observational, retrospective study was performed based on a review of the medical records of adult patients ≥ 18 years of age who sought medical care from 2017 to 2018. Patients were categorized into two groups according to fibrosis stage (estimation method: FIB-4): a) F0-F2; and b) F3-F4 (advanced fibrosis). Follow-up lasted one year. Primary endpoints included comorbidity, concomitant medication, resource utilization and costs. Results were analyzed using a multivariate approach with p < 0.05. RESULTS: a total of 8,151 patients were recruited with a mean age of 61.1 years and 51.5 % were male. By group: a) mild fibrosis n = 7,127, 87.4 %; and b) advanced fibrosis n = 1,024, 12.6 % (6.8 % with liver cirrhosis). The most common comorbidities included 63 % dyslipidemia, 52 % obesity, 52 % hypertension and 35 % diabetes. The average number of drugs used was 2.1 per patient. Patients with advanced fibrosis (F3-F4) had a higher average number of concomitant medications (2.5 vs 2.1; p < 0.001) and a higher AST/ALT ratio (1.1 vs 0.8; p < 0.001). The average cost (patient-year) for subjects with advanced fibrosis, corrected for covariates, was higher (€1,812 vs €1,128, p < 0.001). Age, morbidity, concomitant medication, fibrosis stage and total costs were higher in patients with diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: patients with advanced fibrosis were associated with more comorbidity and concomitant medications, which resulted in higher healthcare costs for the National Health System.

Non-invasive prediction of liver-related events in patients with HCV-associated compensated advanced chronic liver disease after oral antivirals.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is important to know which patients with hepatitis C are likely to develop liver-related complications after achieving a sustained virological response (SVR) to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. We aimed to describe the incidence of liver-related events in a population of patients with HCV-associated compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) who achieved SVR and to identify non-invasive parameters that predict the occurrence of liver-related events. METHODS: This 2-center prospective study included 572 patients with cACLD who had been treated with DAAs and had achieved SVR. Patients had liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≥10 kPa at baseline and had never decompensated (Child-Pugh class A). Laboratory work-up and LSM were performed at baseline and at 1 year of follow-up. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 2.8 years during which 32 patients (5.6%) presented with a liver-related event. The incidence rate (IR) of portal hypertension-related decompensation was 0.34/100 patient-years. These patients all had baseline LSM >20 kPa, and LSM did not improve during follow-up in 4 out of 5 of them. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurred in 25 patients (IR 1.5/100 patient-years). Albumin levels at follow-up (hazard ratio [HR] 0.08; 95% CI 0.02-0.25) and LSM <10 kPa at follow-up (HR 0.33; 95% CI 0.11-0.96) were independently associated with the risk of HCC. Combining both predictors identified 2 groups with differing risk of HCC occurrence: those with LSM ≥20 kPa at follow-up or those with LSM between 10-20 kPa and albumin levels <4.4 g/dl were at the highest risk (IR ≥1.9/100 patient-years). Visual nomograms predicting HCC risk based on LSM and albumin at 1 year of follow-up were constructed. CONCLUSION: In patients with HCV-related cACLD who have achieved SVR with DAAs, HCC is the most frequent liver-related event. Both albumin levels and LSM are useful for stratifying patients based on their risk of developing HCC during follow-up. LAY SUMMARY: New oral antivirals can cure chronic hepatitis C infection, however patients with advanced chronic liver disease are still at risk of presenting with liver-related complications. The most frequent complication after oral antiviral therapy in asymptomatic patients with advanced chronic liver disease was liver cancer. The use of simple parameters such liver stiffness and albumin levels after treatment can help to identify patients at higher or lower risk of liver cancer.

Significant fibrosis predicts new-onset diabetes mellitus and arterial hypertension in patients with NASH.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) could play a catalytic role in the development of metabolic comorbidities, although the magnitude of this effect in metabolically healthy patients with NAFLD remains unclear. We assessed the role of biopsy-proven NAFLD on the risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and other metabolic comorbidities (arterial hypertension [AHT], and dyslipidemia) in metabolically healthy patients. METHODS: We included 178 metabolically healthy-defined by the absence of baseline T2DM, AHT, dyslipidemia-patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from the HEPAmet Registry (N = 1,030). Hepamet fibrosis score (HFS), NAFLD fibrosis score, and Fibrosis-4 were calculated. Follow-up was computed from biopsy to the diagnosis of T2DM, AHT, or dyslipidemia. RESULTS: During a follow-up of 5.6 ± 4.4 years, T2DM occurred in 9% (16/178), AHT in 8.4% (15/178), low HDL in 9.6% (17/178), and hypertriglyceridemia in 23.6% (42/178) of patients. In multivariate analysis, significant fibrosis predicted T2DM and AHT. Independent variables related to T2DM appearance were significant fibrosis (HR 2.95; 95% CI 1.19-7.31; p = 0.019), glucose levels (p = 0.008), age (p = 0.007) and BMI (p = 0.039). AHT was independently linked to significant fibrosis (HR 2.39; 95% CI 1.14-5.10; p = 0.028), age (p = 0.0001), BMI (p = 0.006), glucose (p = 0.021) and platelets (p = 0.050). The annual incidence rate of T2DM was higher in patients with significant fibrosis (4.4 vs. 1.2 cases per 100 person-years), and increased in the presence of obesity, similar to AHT (4.6 vs. 1.1 cases per 100 person-years). HFS >0.12 predicted the risk of T2DM (25% [4/16] vs. HFS <0.12 4.5% [4/88]; logRank 6.658, p = 0.010). CONCLUSION: Metabolically healthy patients with NAFLD-related significant fibrosis were at greater risk of developing T2DM and AHT. HFS >0.12, but not NAFLD fibrosis score or Fibrosis-4, predicted the occurrence of T2DM. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with biopsy-proven non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and significant fibrosis were at risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus and arterial hypertension. The risk of metabolic outcomes in patients with significant fibrosis was increased in the presence of obesity. In addition to liver biopsy, patients at intermediate-to-high risk of significant fibrosis by Hepamet fibrosis score were at risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

ß blockers to prevent decompensation of cirrhosis in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension (PREDESCI): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial.

BACKGROUND: Clinical decompensation of cirrhosis is associated with poor prognosis. Clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH), defined by a hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) ≥10 mm Hg, is the strongest predictor of decompensation. This study aimed at assessing whether lowering HVPG with ß blockers could decrease the risk of decompensation or death in compensated cirrhosis with CSPH. METHODS: This study on ß blockers to prevent decompensation of cirrhosis with portal hypertension (PREDESCI) was an investigator-initiated, double-blind, randomised controlled trial done in eight hospitals in Spain. We enrolled patients with compensated cirrhosis and CSPH without high-risk varices. All participants had HVPG measurements with assessment of acute HVPG-response to intravenous propranolol. Responders (HVPG-decrease ≥10%) were randomly assigned to propranolol (up to 160 mg twice a day) versus placebo and non-responders to carvedilol (≤25 mg/day) versus placebo. Doses were individually determined during an open-label titration period after which randomisation was done with 1:1 allocation by a centralised web-based system. The primary endpoint was incidence of cirrhosis decompensation (defined as development of ascites, bleeding, or overt encephalopathy) or death. Since death in compensated cirrhosis is usually unrelated to the liver, an intention-to-treat analysis considering deaths unrelated to the liver as competing events was done. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01059396. The trial is now completed. FINDINGS: Between Jan 18, 2010, and July 31, 2013, 631 patients were evaluated and 201 were randomly assigned. 101 patients received placebo and 100 received active treatment (67 propranolol and 33 carvedilol). The primary endpoint occurred in 16 (16%) of 100 patients in the ß blockers group versus 27 (27%) of 101 in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·51, 95% CI 0·26-0·97, p=0·041). The difference was due to a reduced incidence of ascites (HR=0·44, 95%CI=0·20-0·97, p=0·0297). The overall incidence of adverse events was similar in both groups. Six patients (four in the ß blockers group) had severe adverse events. INTERPRETATION: Long-term treatment with ß blockers could increase decompensation-free survival in patients with compensated cirrhosis and CSPH, mainly by reducing the incidence of ascites. FUNDING: Spanish Ministries of Health and Economy.

Lowering Portal Pressure Improves Outcomes of Patients With Cirrhosis, With or Without Ascites: A Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In unselected patients with cirrhosis, those with reductions in hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) to below a defined threshold (responders) have a reduced risk of variceal hemorrhage (VH) and death. We performed a meta-analysis to compare this effect in patients with vs without ascites. METHODS: We collected data from 15 studies of primary or secondary prophylaxis of VH that reported data on VH and death in responders vs nonresponders. We included studies in which data on ascites at baseline and on other relevant outcomes during follow-up evaluation were available. We performed separate meta-analyses for patients with vs without ascites. RESULTS: Of the 1113 patients included in the studies, 968 patients (87%) had been treated with nonselective ß-blockers. In 993 patients (89%), HVPG response was defined as a decrease of more than 20% from baseline (>10% in 11% of patients) or to less than 12 mm Hg. In the 661 patients without ascites, responders (n = 329; 50%) had significantly lower odds of events (ascites, VH, or encephalopathy) than nonresponders (odds ratio [OR], 0.35; 95% CI, 0.22-0.56). Odds of death or liver transplantation were also significantly lower among responders than nonresponders (OR, 0.50, 95% CI, 0.32-0.78). In the 452 patients with ascites, responders (n = 188; 42%) had significantly lower odds of events (VH, refractory ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, or hepatorenal syndrome) than nonresponders (OR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.16-0.43). Overall, odds of death or liver transplantation were lower among responders (OR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.29-0.75). No heterogeneity was observed among studies. CONCLUSIONS: In a meta-analysis of clinical trials, we found that patients with cirrhosis with and without ascites who respond to treatment with nonselective ß-blockers (based on reductions in HVPG) have a reduced risk of events, death, or liver transplantation.

Steatosis as main determinant of portal hypertension through a restriction of hepatic sinusoidal area in a dietary rat nash model.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Portal hypertension (PH) can be present in pre-cirrhotic stages, even in absence of fibrosis in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) patients. Liver endothelial dysfunction (ED) has been shown as responsible for this effect in short-term dietary animal models. We evaluated the persistence of PH and underlying mechanisms in a long-term rat model of NASH. METHODS: Sprague-Dawley rats were fed 8 or 36 weeks with control diet or high-fat high-glucose/fructose diet. Metabolic parameters, histology, ED and haemodynamics were characterized. Structural characteristics of liver sections were analysed using image analysis. RESULTS: Both interventions reproduced NASH histological hallmarks (with steatosis being particularly increased at 36 weeks), but neither induced fibrosis. The 36-week intervention induced a significant increase in portal pressure (PP) compared to controls (12.1 vs 8.7 mmHg, P < .001) and the 8-week model (10.7 mmHg, P = .006), but all features of ED were normalized at 36 weeks. Image analysis revealed that the increased steatosis at 36-week was associated to an increase in hepatocyte area and a significant decrease in the sinusoidal area, which was inversely correlated with PP. The analysis provided a critical sinusoidal area above which animals were protected from developing PH and below which sinusoidal flux was compromised and PP started to increase. CONCLUSION: Liver steatosis per se (in absence of fibrosis) can induce PH through a decrease in the sinusoidal area secondary to the increase in hepatocyte area in a long-term diet-induced rat model of NASH. Image analysis of the sinusoidal area might predict the presence of PH.

Simvastatin-loaded polymeric micelles are more effective and less toxic than conventional statins in a pre-clinical model of advanced chronic liver disease.

Chronic liver disease (CLD) has no effective treatments apart from reducing its complications. Simvastatin has been tested as vasoprotective drug in experimental models of CLD showing promising results, but also limiting adverse effects. Two types of Pluronic® carriers loading simvastatin (PM108-simv and PM127-simv) as a drug delivery system were developed to avoid these toxicities while increasing the therapeutic window of simvastatin. PM127-simv showed the highest rates of cell internalization in rat liver sinusoidal endothelial cells (LSECs) and significantly lower toxicity than free simvastatin, improving cell phenotype. The in vivo biodistribution was mainly hepatic with 50% of the injected PM found in the liver. Remarkably, after one week of administration in a model of CLD, PM127-simv demonstrated superior effect than free simvastatin in reducing portal hypertension. Moreover, no signs of toxicity of PM127-simv were detected. Our results indicate that simvastatin targeted delivery to LSEC is a promising therapeutic approach for CLD.