Nonpharmaceutical interventions reduce the incidence and mortality of COVID-19: A study based on the survey from the International COVID-19 Research Network (ICRN).

The recently emerged novel coronavirus, "severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)," caused a highly contagious disease called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). It has severely damaged the world's most developed countries and has turned into a major threat for low- and middle-income countries. Since its emergence in late 2019, medical interventions have been substantial, and most countries relied on public health measures collectively known as nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We aimed to centralize the accumulative knowledge of NPIs against COVID-19 for each country under one worldwide consortium. International COVID-19 Research Network collaborators developed a cross-sectional online survey to assess the implications of NPIs and sanitary supply on the incidence and mortality of COVID-19. The survey was conducted between January 1 and February 1, 2021, and participants from 92 countries/territories completed it. The association between NPIs, sanitation supplies, and incidence and mortality were examined by multivariate regression, with the log-transformed value of population as an offset value. The majority of countries/territories applied several preventive strategies, including social distancing (100.0%), quarantine (100.0%), isolation (98.9%), and school closure (97.8%). Individual-level preventive measures such as personal hygiene (100.0%) and wearing facial masks (94.6% at hospitals; 93.5% at mass transportation; 91.3% in mass gathering facilities) were also frequently applied. Quarantine at a designated place was negatively associated with incidence and mortality compared to home quarantine. Isolation at a designated place was also associated with reduced mortality compared to home isolation. Recommendations to use sanitizer for personal hygiene reduced incidence compared to the recommendation to use soap. Deprivation of masks was associated with increased incidence. Higher incidence and mortality were found in countries/territories with higher economic levels. Mask deprivation was pervasive regardless of economic level. NPIs against COVID-19 such as using sanitizer, quarantine, and isolation can decrease the incidence and mortality of COVID-19.

The global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 by continents and national income: A meta-analysis.

The aim of this study is to provide a more accurate representation of COVID-19's case fatality rate (CFR) by performing meta-analyses by continents and income, and by comparing the result with pooled estimates. We used multiple worldwide data sources on COVID-19 for every country reporting COVID-19 cases. On the basis of data, we performed random and fixed meta-analyses for CFR of COVID-19 by continents and income according to each individual calendar date. CFR was estimated based on the different geographical regions and levels of income using three models: pooled estimates, fixed- and random-model. In Asia, all three types of CFR initially remained approximately between 2.0% and 3.0%. In the case of pooled estimates and the fixed model results, CFR increased to 4.0%, by then gradually decreasing, while in the case of random-model, CFR remained under 2.0%. Similarly, in Europe, initially, the two types of CFR peaked at 9.0% and 10.0%, respectively. The random-model results showed an increase near 5.0%. In high-income countries, pooled estimates and fixed-model showed gradually increasing trends with a final pooled estimates and random-model reached about 8.0% and 4.0%, respectively. In middle-income, the pooled estimates and fixed-model have gradually increased reaching up to 4.5%. in low-income countries, CFRs remained similar between 1.5% and 3.0%. Our study emphasizes that COVID-19 CFR is not a fixed or static value. Rather, it is a dynamic estimate that changes with time, population, socioeconomic factors, and the mitigatory efforts of individual countries.

Resistance-associated substitution and ledipasvir/sofosbuvir therapy in Mongolian chronic hepatitis C patients.

BACKGROUND: Mongolia has the highest prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection worldwide. Ledipasvir/sofosbuvir (LDV/SOF) was introduced to Mongolia since 2016 for HCV eradication. It has been reported that HCV resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) would affect the effectiveness of LDV/SOF in western chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients. We thus investigated the effectiveness of LDV/SOF and the impact of RAS on the treatment outcome in Mongolian CHC patients. METHODS: Patients with genotype (GT) 1b HCV infection were prospectively enrolled in Mongolia and treated with LDV/SOF for 12 weeks. The proportion of pre-treatment NS5A Y93H RAS in viral quasispecies was measured with next-generation sequencing. The endpoint of LDV/SOF effectiveness was sustained virological response at post-treatment week 12 (SVR12). RESULTS: A total of 94 CHC patients were evaluated. The baseline Y93H proportion was <1% in 74 patients, 1-15% in 7, 15-50% in 2, and ≥50% in 11. All patients completed 12-week LDV/SOF treatment and the SVR rate was 90.4%. The rate of failure to achieve SVR12 for patients with Y93H < 1%, 1-15%, and ≥15% were 0%, 14.3%, and 61.5%, respectively (p for trend = 0.001). In univariable analysis, older age, baseline alanine transaminase level <40 U/mL, and a higher proportion of Y93H were associated with treatment failure. In multivariable analysis, only a higher proportion of Y93H was associated with treatment failure (p = 0.022). CONCLUSION: LDV/SOF therapy achieves a high SVR rate in Mongolian CHC GT1b patients without baseline Y93H RAS. A higher proportion of Y93H may severely undermine the effectiveness of LDV/SOF.

Progression of Untreated Minimally Active Chronic HBV Infection Compared to Inactive Infection.

Nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUCs) are recommended when both are fulfilled in the absence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or cirrhosis; (1) elevated serum hepatitis B virus (HBV)-DNA (≥20,000 IU/mL for hepatitis B e antigen-positive chronic hepatitis B [CHB] or ≥2000 IU/mL for hepatitis B e antigen-negative CHB) and (2) serum alanine aminotransferase ≥2× upper limit of normal.1 Therefore, many patients still remain untreated. Such untreated patients have so called "minimally active CHB," where serum HBV-DNA is persistently >2000 IU/mL and other parameters for NUCs are below the criteria.2 There have been little data concerning their prognosis.

Fibrosis-matched outcomes between chronic hepatitis B patients with drug-induced virological response and inactive carriers.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We compared the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development between patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) who achieved virological response (VR; HBV-DNA < 2000 IU/mL) with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NUCs) treatment (NUC-VR group) and patients with inactive CHB phase (ICHBP group). METHODS: To adjust for imbalances between NUC-VR and ICHBP groups, propensity score matching (PSM) models with 1:1 ratios were performed. RESULTS: This study included 2032 patients (n = 1291 in NUC-VR group and n = 741 in ICHBP group). Before PSM, NUC-VR group was at higher risk of HCC development than ICHBP group at 7 years (9.4% in NUC-VR group vs 3.3% in ICHBP group; P < 0.001). However, after PSM, the cumulative HCC development rates at 7 years were similar in NUC-VR and ICHBP groups using the three PSM models [2.0% vs 4.3%, PSM model-1 (612 pairs); 3.7% vs 4.4%, PSM model-2 (618 pairs); and 2.4% vs 4.3%, PSM model-3 (610 pairs)] (all P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: After adjusting heavier hepatic fibrosis burden in NUC-VR group, overall clinical outcomes between 2 groups had become comparable. Therefore, if appropriate, NUCs to prevent viral replication and hepatic inflammation are required for achieving better prognosis.

Transarterial Chemoembolization in Treatment-Naïve and Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Propensity-Matched Outcome Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) improves the survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); however, TACE treatment outcomes of patients with treatment-naïve HCC (TN-HCC) and those with recurrent HCC after curative resection (R-HCC) have not yet been compared. METHODS: We recruited 448 patients with TN-HCC, and 275 patients with R-HCC treated with TACE as first-line anti-cancer treatment. RESULTS: At first TACE, patients with TN-HCC showed a significantly lower proportion of male gender (74.9% vs. 84.3%), higher proportion of liver cirrhosis (61.9% vs. 49.3%), higher aspartate aminotransferase (median 48 vs. 31 IU/L), alanine aminotransferase (median 38 vs. 26 IU/L), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (median 96.6 vs. 7.7 ng/mL), and total bilirubin (mean 1.0 vs. 0.8 mg/dL) levels, longer prothrombin time (median 1.05 vs. 1.01 international normalized ratio), higher tumor number (mean 2.1 vs. 1.7), larger tumor size (median 3.1 vs. 1.6 cm), and lower proportion of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0-A (55.6% vs. 71.9%) than patients with R-HCC (all P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that TACE for TN-HCC (vs. R-HCC) was an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio, 1.328; P = 0.024) with AFP level and tumor number (all P < 0.05). However, treatment outcomes between TN-HCC and R-HCC became statistically similar after propensity score-matched (PSM) analysis using liver cirrhosis, tumor size, and multiple tumors (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Based on the similar TACE treatment outcomes observed with the PSM analysis, the current TACE treatment guideline for patients with TN-HCC might similarly be applied for patients with R-HCC.

Association Between Level of Fibrosis, Rather Than Antiviral Regimen, and Outcomes of Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We performed a propensity-score matched analysis to investigate whether entecavir, compared with lamivudine, can reduce risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B after adjusting for level of fibrosis. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of 1079 patients with chronic hepatitis B who received first-line therapy with lamivudine (n = 435) or entecavir (n = 644) from 2006 through 2013. Only patients with available liver stiffness value measured by transient elastography were recruited. Liver cirrhosis was diagnosed by ultrasonography. To adjust for the imbalance of patients treated with lamivudine versus entecavir, we performed propensity-score matching (PSM), at a ratio of 1:1, using 7 factors (age, sex, hepatitis B e antigen, alanine aminotransferase, serum albumin, platelet count, and liver stiffness; PSM1) or 8 factors (variables of PSM1 plus ultrasonography measurements of cirrhosis; PSM2). Patients with virologic breakthrough or resistance mutations received rescue therapy. RESULTS: Over the 7-year period, 91 patients developed HCC and 104 had liver-related events in the entire cohort. In multivariate analyses, level of fibrosis, but not antiviral regimen, was independently associated with risk of HCC (P < .05). The PSM1 group included 342 pairs of patients and the PSM2 group included 338 pairs. Similar proportions of patients given lamivudine versus entecavir developed HCC in each model (10.5% given lamivudine vs 9.9% given entecavir in PSM1 and 11.9% vs 12.6% in PSM2; all P > .05). When PSM was applied to patients with liver stiffness value ≤13 kPa or >13 kPa, patients given lamivudine versus entecavir still had similar cumulative rates of HCC development (all P > .05). CONCLUSIONS: In a PSM analysis, we associated level of fibrosis, rather than antiviral regimen, with risk of HCC, when patients received appropriate rescue therapy in case of virologic breakthrough or resistance mutations.

Lower incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma and cirrhosis in hepatitis C patients with sustained virological response by pegylated interferon and ribavirin.

BACKGROUND: To elucidate the benefits of successful antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients METHODS: A total of 463 CHC patients who underwent pegylated interferon alfa and ribavirin therapy were classified as sustained virological response (SVR) or non-SVR based on response to antiviral therapy. We investigated disease progression to cirrhosis in non-cirrhotic patients, development of cirrhosis-related complications such as ascites, variceal bleeding, and hepatic encephalopathy in patients with cirrhosis, and development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). RESULTS: Three hundred patients achieved SVR, and 163 were classified into the non-SVR group. The overall SVR rates were 64.8 %, and multivariate analysis showed that younger age, non-cirrhosis, HCV genotype 2 or 3, lower HCV RNA level (<800,000 IU/mL), and lower body weight were independent factors associated with SVR (all P < 0.05). During a median follow-up of 36.1 months, non-cirrhotic patients with SVR had significantly lower risk of progression to cirrhosis compared with patients with non-SVR (P < 0.001). Moreover, SVR was related to a reduced risk of HCC development (P = 0.017). CONCLUSIONS: SVR resulted in significantly more favorable long-term outcomes, such as lower risk of progression to cirrhosis and HCC occurrence compared with non-SVR.

Antiviral efficacy of lamivudine versus entecavir in patients with hepatitis B virus-related advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Little information is available about the antiviral efficacy of lamivudine (LAM) and entecavir (ETV) in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Thus, we compared the antiviral efficacy of LAM and ETV in these patients. METHODS: The medical records of 134 antiviral therapy-naïve patients with HBV-related advanced HCC (modified Union for International Cancer Control [UICC] Tumor, Nodes, and Metastases [TNM] stages III-IV) treated between January 2005 and September 2009 were reviewed. After HCC diagnosis, 87 (64.9%) and 47 (35.1%) patients received LAM and ETV, respectively. RESULTS: The mean age of patients (115 men, 19 women) was 53 years. Sixty-five (48.5%) and 69 (51.5%) patients had TNM stages III and IV HCC, respectively. Treatment outcomes during follow-up, including virologic, biochemical, and serologic responses and appearance of antiviral resistance, were similar in the LAM and ETV groups (all P>0.05). Multivariate analysis identified Child-Pugh class, α-fetoprotein, and TNM stage as independent predictors of overall survival (all P<0.05). Antiviral agent type (LAM vs ETV) did not influence overall survival (median 9.6 months in LAM vs 13.6 months in ETV group; P=0.493). HCC treatment was not interrupted due to HBV flare up in any patient. CONCLUSIONS: The antiviral efficacy of LAM and ETV was similar and the type of antiviral agent did not influence overall survival in patients with HBV-related advanced HCC. Thus, LAM, which is less expensive than ETV in Korea, might be sufficient to control HBV in these patients.

Current situation of hepatocellular carcinoma in Mongolia.

Mongolia is one of the nations with the highest incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide; it occurs in 54.1 cases per 100,000 people each year and is attributable to a high prevalence of chronic viral hepatitis. Although universal vaccination for hepatitis B virus has been implemented and sterilization of medical devices is being improved, the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B and C is still over 10%. Primary prevention of HCC is currently hard to achieve because of a limited availability of antiviral therapy. A significant proportion of HCC patients in Mongolia is diagnosed in the advanced stage, and this is due to the lack of a surveillance system using ultrasound and serum α-fetoprotein for early detection. Moreover, the resources for high resolution imaging such as computed tomography are absolutely insufficient in number, and the treatment modalities physicians can choose are largely restricted. Considering that HCC is the most prevalent malignancy in Mongolia, a systematic approach to prevention, early detection, and effective treatment is urgently required.

Efficacy and safety of ledipasvir/sofosbuvir in 5,028 Mongolian patients infected with genotype 1 hepatitis C virus: A multicenter study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Ledipasvir/sofosbuvir (LDV/SOF) shows high efficacy and safety in patients with genotype 1-hepatitis C virus (HCV). We aimed to investigate the efficacy and safety of LDV/SOF in real-world Mongolian patients. METHODS: Between 2015 to 2019, 23 (0.5%) and 5,005 patients (99.5%) with genotype 1a and 1b HCV, respectively, were treated with a fixed-dose tablet containing 90 mg ledipasvir and 400 mg sofosbuvir for 12 weeks, and 81 patients (1.6%) with previous experience of interferon (IFN)-based treatment received additional 1,000 mg ribavirin. HCV RNA was measured at 4, 12, and 24 weeks after the first dose to determine rapid virologic response, end of treatment response (ETR), and sustained virologic response at 12 weeks after end of treatment (SVR12). RESULTS: Most patients (n=5,008; 99.6%) achieved ETR and SVR12 without virologic relapse. Patients with genotype 1a showed low rates of ETR and SVR12 in only 16 patients (69.6%). There was no significant difference in SVR12 rate between patients regardless of IFN experience (n=81; 1.6%), cirrhosis (n=1,151; 22.9%), HCV RNA >6×106 IU/mL (n=866; 17.2%), or liver stiffness >9.6 kPa (n=1,721; 34.2%) (100.0%, 99.3%, 99.4%, and 99.4%, respectively). No severe adverse events (AEs) were reported, and there was no dose reduction or interruption due to AE. The most common AEs were headache (n=472; 9.4%), fatigue (n=306; 6.2%), abdominal discomfort (n=295; 5.9%), and skin rash (n=141; 2.8%). CONCLUSION: LDV/SOF showed high efficacy and safety for patients with genotype 1, especially 1b HCV, in Mongolia. The real-world data might be applicable to patients in other Asian-Pacific countries.

APASL clinical practice guideline on hepatitis B reactivation related to the use of immunosuppressive therapy.

BACKGROUND & AIM: Hepatitis B reactivation related to the use of immunosuppressive therapy remains a major cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality in hepatitis B endemic Asia-Pacific region. This clinical practice guidelines aim to assist clinicians in all disciplines involved in the use of immunosuppressive therapy to effectively prevent and manage hepatitis B reactivation. METHODS: All publications related to hepatitis B reactivation with the use of immunosuppressive therapy since 1975 were reviewed. Advice from key opinion leaders in member countries/administrative regions of Asian-Pacific Association for the study of the liver was collected and synchronized. Immunosuppressive therapy was risk-stratified according to its reported rate of hepatitis B reactivation. RECOMMENDATIONS: We recommend the necessity to screen all patients for hepatitis B prior to the initiation of immunosuppressive therapy and to administer pre-emptive nucleos(t)ide analogues to those patients with a substantial risk of hepatitis and acute-on-chronic liver failure due to hepatitis B reactivation.

Pre-existing liver disease is associated with poor outcome in patients with SARS CoV2 infection; The APCOLIS Study (APASL COVID-19 Liver Injury Spectrum Study).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: COVID-19 is a dominant pulmonary disease, with multisystem involvement, depending upon comorbidities. Its profile in patients with pre-existing chronic liver disease (CLD) is largely unknown. We studied the liver injury patterns of SARS-Cov-2 in CLD patients, with or without cirrhosis. METHODS: Data was collected from 13 Asian countries on patients with CLD, known or newly diagnosed, with confirmed COVID-19. RESULTS: Altogether, 228 patients [185 CLD without cirrhosis and 43 with cirrhosis] were enrolled, with comorbidities in nearly 80%. Metabolism associated fatty liver disease (113, 61%) and viral etiology (26, 60%) were common. In CLD without cirrhosis, diabetes [57.7% vs 39.7%, OR = 2.1 (1.1-3.7), p = 0.01] and in cirrhotics, obesity, [64.3% vs. 17.2%, OR = 8.1 (1.9-38.8), p = 0.002] predisposed more to liver injury than those without these. Forty three percent of CLD without cirrhosis presented as acute liver injury and 20% cirrhotics presented with either acute-on-chronic liver failure [5 (11.6%)] or acute decompensation [4 (9%)]. Liver related complications increased (p < 0.05) with stage of liver disease; a Child-Turcotte Pugh score of 9 or more at presentation predicted high mortality [AUROC 0.94, HR = 19.2 (95 CI 2.3-163.3), p < 0.001, sensitivity 85.7% and specificity 94.4%). In decompensated cirrhotics, the liver injury was progressive in 57% patients, with 43% mortality. Rising bilirubin and AST/ALT ratio predicted mortality among cirrhosis patients. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-Cov-2 infection causes significant liver injury in CLD patients, decompensating one fifth of cirrhosis, and worsening the clinical status of the already decompensated. The CLD patients with diabetes and obesity are more vulnerable and should be closely monitored.

Hepatitis B e antigen-negative mutations in the precore and core promoter regions in Korean patients.

Most patients with hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative chronic hepatitis B have variants of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) that include mutations in the precore or core promoter regions of the HBV genome. The aim of this study was to investigate the patterns of precore and core promoter mutations and their relationship to HBeAg expression in Korean patients. Four hundred seventy-five Korean patients with chronic HBV infection between February 1995 and December 2003 were enrolled in this study. There were 236 HBeAg-positive and 239 HBeAg-negative patients. Blood samples were tested for HBsAg, anti-HBs, HBeAg, hepatitis B e antibody (anti-HBe), liver function tests, and serum HBV DNA. Mutations in the precore and core promoter regions were determined by direct sequencing. In the core promoter region, the C1740, C1753, T1762/A1764, and T1766 mutations were associated with HBeAg escape (all; P < 0.05). In the precore region, a higher frequency of the C1802, A1828, T1846, A1850, C1858, T1862, and A1896 mutations was found in HBeAg-negative patients (all; P < 0.05). In particular, the A1896 mutation was associated with high serum levels of ALT and HBV DNA in HBeAg-negative patients (P = 0.014 and 0.026, respectively). Mutations around the Kozak sequence (nucleotides 1809-1812) were found in 6.7% of patients and were not associated with undetectable HBeAg (P = 0.13). In Korean patients, various mutations in the precore and core promoter regions were associated with HBeAg escape and amelioration of hepatic inflammation in HBeAg- negative patients. Only the A1896 mutation contributed to HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B.

Specific mutations in the enhancer II/core promoter/precore regions of hepatitis B virus subgenotype C2 in Korean patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Recently, hepatitis B virus (HBV) genotypes and mutations have been reported to be related to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This cross-sectional case-control study examined the relationship between HCC and mutations in the enhancer II/core promoter and precore regions of HBV by comparing 135 Korean HCC patients infected with HBV genotype C2 (HBV/C2; HCC group) with 135 age-, sex-, and hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) status-matched patients without HCC (non- HCC group). Age and sex were also matched between HBeAg-positive and -negative patients. The prevalence of T1653, A1689, V1753, T1762/A1764, T1846, A1850, C1858, and A1896 mutations was evaluated in this population. The prevalence of the T1653 mutation in the box alpha region, the T1689 [corrected] mutation in between the box alpha and beta regions, and the T1762/A1764 mutations in the basal core promoter region was significantly higher in the HCC group compared to the non-HCC group (8.9% vs. 2.2%, P = 0.017; 19.3% vs. 4.4%, P < 0.001; and 60.7% vs. 22.2%; P < 0.001). Among HBeAg-negative patients, the frequency of the T1653 mutation was higher in the HCC group. Regardless of HBeAg status, the prevalence of the T1689, [corrected] and T1762/A1764 mutations was higher in the HCC group than in the non-HCC group. However, no association was observed between mutations in the precore region and HCC. Upon multivariate analysis, the presence of the T1653, T1689, [corrected] and T1762/A1764 mutations was an independent predictive factor for HCC. The addition of the T1653 or T1689 [corrected] mutation to T1762/A1764 increased the risk of HCC. In conclusion, the T1653, T1689, [corrected] and/or T1762/A1764 mutations were associated with the development of HCC in Korean patients infected with HBV/C2.

Variability in liver stiffness values from different intercostal spaces.

AIM: To investigate the variability in liver stiffness measurement (LSM) values from the fifth, sixth and seventh intercostal space (ICS) and examine whether LSM better predicts significant fibrosis (F2-4) and cirrhosis when LSM is performed at the same site as liver biopsy (LB). METHODS: This study enrolled 91 consecutive patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related chronic liver disease (CLD) who underwent both LB and LSM between September 2007 and January 2009. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 45.4 years (66 men and 25 women). F1 fibrosis was noted in 12 patients (13.2%), F2 in 28 (30.7%), F3 in 15 (16.5%) and F4 in 36 (39.6%). The mean LSM values from the fifth, sixth and seventh ICS were 11.6, 11.1 and 10.9 kPa respectively. The mean LSM value from the same site as LB was 11.0 kPa. An interclass correlation analysis showed no significant difference in LSM values from the fifth, sixth and seventh ICS and the same site as LB. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of LSM values from the fifth, sixth and seventh ICS and the same site as LB for predicting significant fibrosis were 0.815, 0.838, 0.818 and 0.837, respectively, and those for cirrhosis were 0.919, 0.916, 0.907 and 0.913, respectively, with all overlapping confidence intervals. CONCLUSIONS: Any LSM value from the fifth, sixth or seventh ICS can predict significant fibrosis and cirrhosis with considerable accuracy without statistical differences regardless of correspondence with LB site in patients with HBV-related CLD.

Author Correction: Comparison between chronic hepatitis B patients with untreated immune-tolerant phase vs. those with virological response by antivirals.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Prognosis of Untreated Minimally Active Chronic Hepatitis B Patients in Comparison With Virological Responders by Antivirals.

OBJECTIVES: Serum hepatitis B virus (HBV)-DNA > 2,000 IU/mL is associated with higher risk of disease progression. However, without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or cirrhosis, nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUCs) are recommended only for patients with elevated serum HBV-DNA and alanine aminotransferase ≥2 × upper normal limit. METHODS: We evaluated prognosis of untreated minimally active (MA) hepatitis patients (defined as HBV-DNA > 2,000 IU/mL, but never fulfilling current criteria for NUCs during follow-up) (untreated MA group), compared to virological responders by NUCs (NUC-VR group). Eligible patients undergoing transient elastography were consecutively enrolled. Patients with an immune-tolerant or inactive phase and with cirrhosis or HCC at enrollment were excluded. Cumulative risks of disease progression were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: The untreated MA group (n = 152) had higher HBV-DNA, alanine aminotransferase, and total bilirubin levels, and lower proportions of male and positive hepatitis B e antigen, compared to the NUC-VR group (n = 641). The untreated MA group had higher risks of HCC (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 3.485, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.234-9.846; P = 0.018), but similar risks of cirrhotic complications (adjusted HR 0.649, 95% CI 0.227-1.854; P = 0.420), compared to the NUC-VR group. Inverse probability of treatment weighting analysis using propensity score showed that the untreated MA group had higher risks of HCC (HR 4.464, 95% CI 2.008-9.901; P < 0.001), but similar risks of cirrhotic complications (HR 1.171, 95% CI 0.594-2.309; P = 0.649), compared to the NUC-VR group. DISCUSSION: Through appropriate adjustment of potential prognostic factors, the untreated MA group consistently showed higher risks of HCC, but similar risks of cirrhotic complications, compared to the NUC-VR group. HCC risk might be reduced through earlier NUCs for the untreated MA group.

Conditional Survival Estimates Improve Over Time for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: An Analysis for Nationwide Korea Cancer Registry Database.

PURPOSE: Conditional survival estimates (CSE) can provide additional useful prognostic information on the period of survival after diagnosis, which helps in counseling patients with cancer on their individual prognoses. This study aimed to analyze conditional survival (CS) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using a Korean national registry. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with HCC, registered in the Korean cancer registry database, were retrospectively reviewed. Overall survival (OS) was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The 1-year CS at X year or month after diagnosis were calculated as CS1=OS(X+1)/OS(X). CS calculations were performed in each Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, after which patients at stage 0, A, and B underwent subgroup analysis using initial treatment methods. RESULTS: A total of 4,063 patients diagnosed with HCC from January 2008 to December 2010, and 2,721 who were diagnosed from January 2011 to December 2012, were separately reviewed. In 2008-2010, the 1-year CS of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-year survivors was 82.9%, 85.1%, 88.3%, 88.0%, and 88.6%, respectively. Patients demonstrated an increase in CSE over time in subgroup analysis, especially in the advanced stages. In 2011-2012, the 1-year CS of 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months was 81.5%, 83.8%, 85.3%, 85.5%, 86.5%, and 88.8%, respectively. The subgroup analysis showed the same tendency towards increased CSE in the advanced stages. CONCLUSION: Overall, the CS improved with each additional year after diagnosis in both groups. CSE may therefore provide a more accurate prognosis and hopeful message to patients who are surviving with or after treatment.

Comparison between chronic hepatitis B patients with untreated immune-tolerant phase vs. those with virological response by antivirals.

Routine nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUCs) have not yet been recommended for patients with immune-tolerant (IT) phase in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. We aimed to evaluate prognosis of patients in untreated IT-phase (UIT group), compared to those in immune-active phase who achieved virological response by NUCs according to guidelines (VR group). Between 2006 and 2012, patients in UIT or VR groups were included. Cumulative risks of HCC and liver-related events (LREs) development were assessed. Furthermore, propensity-score was calculated based upon age, gender, diabetes and liver stiffness. UIT group (n = 126) showed younger age, lower proportion of male gender and lower LS than VR group (n = 641). UIT group had similar 10-year cumulative risks of HCC (2.7% vs. 2.9%, p = 0.704) and LRE (4.6% vs. 6.1%, p = 0.903) development, compared to VR group. When we re-defined UIT group by the lower ALT cut-offs, 10-year cumulative risks of HCC and LRE development were 2.9% and 4.8%, respectively. Using propensity-score matching and inverse probability treatment weighting analysis, similar results were reproduced. UIT group consistently had similar prognosis compared to VR group. Therefore, further large-scale prospective studies in order to verify rationales of routine NUCs in UIT group are still required.