Trajectories of remitted psychotic depression: identification of predictors of worsening by machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Remitted psychotic depression (MDDPsy) has heterogeneity of outcome. The study's aims were to identify subgroups of persons with remitted MDDPsy with distinct trajectories of depression severity during continuation treatment and to detect predictors of membership to the worsening trajectory. METHOD: One hundred and twenty-six persons aged 18-85 years participated in a 36-week randomized placebo-controlled trial (RCT) that examined the clinical effects of continuing olanzapine once an episode of MDDPsy had remitted with sertraline plus olanzapine. Latent class mixed modeling was used to identify subgroups of participants with distinct trajectories of depression severity during the RCT. Machine learning was used to predict membership to the trajectories based on participant pre-trajectory characteristics. RESULTS: Seventy-one (56.3%) participants belonged to a subgroup with a stable trajectory of depression scores and 55 (43.7%) belonged to a subgroup with a worsening trajectory. A random forest model with high prediction accuracy (AUC of 0.812) found that the strongest predictors of membership to the worsening subgroup were residual depression symptoms at onset of remission, followed by anxiety score at RCT baseline and age of onset of the first lifetime depressive episode. In a logistic regression model that examined depression score at onset of remission as the only predictor variable, the AUC (0.778) was close to that of the machine learning model. CONCLUSIONS: Residual depression at onset of remission has high accuracy in predicting membership to worsening outcome of remitted MDDPsy. Research is needed to determine how best to optimize the outcome of psychotic MDDPsy with residual symptoms.

Allostatic load and incident heart failure in the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study.

BACKGROUND: Allostatic load (AL) is the physiologic "wear and tear" on the body from stress. Yet, despite stress being implicated in the development heart failure (HF), it is unknown whether AL is associated with incident HF events. METHODS: We examined 16,765 participants without HF at baseline from the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort. The main exposure was AL score quartile. AL was determined according to 11 physiologic parameters, whereby each parameter was assigned points (0-3) based on quartiles within the sample, and points were summed to create a total AL score ranging from 0-33. The outcome was incident HF event. We examined the association between AL quartile (Q1-Q4) and incident HF events using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for demographics, socioeconomic factors, and lifestyle. RESULTS: The mean age was 64 ± 9.6 years, 61.5% were women, and 38.7% were Black participants. Over a median follow up of 11.4 years, we observed 750 incident HF events (635 HF hospitalizations and 115 HF deaths). Compared to the lowest AL quartile (Q1), the fully adjusted hazards of an incident HF event increased in a graded fashion: Q2 HR 1.49 95% CI 1.12-1.98; Q3 HR 2.47 95% CI 1.89-3.23; Q4 HR 4.28 95% CI 3.28-5.59. The HRs for incident HF event in the fully adjusted model that also adjusted for CAD were attenuated, but remained significant and increased in a similar, graded fashion by AL quartile. There was a significant age interaction (p-for-interaction < 0.001), whereby the associations were observed across each age stratum, but the HRs were highest among those aged < 65 years. CONCLUSION: AL was associated with incident HF events, suggesting that AL could be an important risk factor and potential target for future interventions to prevent HF.

Risk stratification models for predicting preventable hospitalization in commercially insured late middle-aged adults with depression.

BACKGROUND: A significant number of late middle-aged adults with depression have a high illness burden resulting from chronic conditions which put them at high risk of hospitalization. Many late middle-aged adults are covered by commercial health insurance, but such insurance claims have not been used to identify the risk of hospitalization in individuals with depression. In the present study, we developed and validated a non-proprietary model to identify late middle-aged adults with depression at risk for hospitalization, using machine learning methods. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study involved 71,682 commercially insured older adults aged 55-64 years diagnosed with depression. National health insurance claims were used to capture demographics, health care utilization, and health status during the base year. Health status was captured using 70 chronic health conditions, and 46 mental health conditions. The outcomes were 1- and 2-year preventable hospitalization. For each of our two outcomes, we evaluated seven modelling approaches: four prediction models utilized logistic regression with different combinations of predictors to evaluate the relative contribution of each group of variables, and three prediction models utilized machine learning approaches - logistic regression with LASSO penalty, random forests (RF), and gradient boosting machine (GBM). RESULTS: Our predictive model for 1-year hospitalization achieved an AUC of 0.803, with a sensitivity of 72% and a specificity of 76% under the optimum threshold of 0.463, and our predictive model for 2-year hospitalization achieved an AUC of 0.793, with a sensitivity of 76% and a specificity of 71% under the optimum threshold of 0.452. For predicting both 1-year and 2-year risk of preventable hospitalization, our best performing models utilized the machine learning approach of logistic regression with LASSO penalty which outperformed more black-box machine learning models like RF and GBM. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates the feasibility of identifying depressed middle-aged adults at higher risk of future hospitalization due to burden of chronic illnesses using basic demographic information and diagnosis codes recorded in health insurance claims. Identifying this population may assist health care planners in developing effective screening strategies and management approaches and in efficient allocation of public healthcare resources as this population transitions to publicly funded healthcare programs, e.g., Medicare in the US.

A single-center, open-label, randomized, parallel-group trial to pilot the effectiveness of a peer coach behavioral intervention versus an active control in reducing anxiety and depression in patients scheduled for total knee replacement.

BACKGROUND: Moving Well is a behavioral intervention for patients with knee osteoarthritis (KOA) scheduled for a total knee replacement (TKR). The objective of this intervention is to help patients with KOA mentally and physically prepare for and recover from TKR. METHODS: This is an open-label pilot randomized clinical trial that will test the feasibility and effectiveness of the Moving Well intervention compared to an attention control group, Staying Well, to reduce symptoms of anxiety and depression in patients with KOA undergoing TKR. The Moving Well intervention is guided by Social Cognitive Theory. During this 12-week intervention, participants will receive 7 weekly calls before surgery and 5 weekly calls after surgery from a peer coach. During these calls, participants will be coached to use principles of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), stress reduction techniques, and will be assigned an online exercise program, and self-monitoring activities to complete on their own time throughout the program. Staying Well participants will receive weekly calls of similar duration from research staff to discuss a variety of health topics unrelated to TKR, CBT, or exercise. The primary outcome is the difference in levels of anxiety and/or depression between participants in the Moving Well and Staying Well groups 6 months after TKR. DISCUSSION: This study will pilot test the feasibility and effectiveness of Moving Well, a peer coach intervention, alongside principles of CBT and home exercise, to help patients with KOA mentally and physically prepare for and recover from TKR. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov. NCT05217420; Registered: January 31, 2022.

Improved outcomes for depressed elder abuse victims with video-delivered psychotherapy during COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: There is a lack of evidence-based scalable therapies for elder abuse victims, with no current remotely delivered tailored psychotherapy. The purpose of this manuscript is to (a) examine the effectiveness of a brief therapy for depression for elder abuse victims, and (b) to compare remote intervention delivery via phone or video to the traditional in-person delivery. METHOD: PROTECT, Providing Options to Elderly Clients Together, is a brief therapy developed in collaboration with partners at the Department for the Aging (DFTA) of New York City. During the COVID-19 outbreak, PROTECT delivery shifted from in-person to phone or video delivery. Depression severity was tracked using the Patient Health Questionaire-9 (PHQ-9). Reduction in depression severity was evaluated using a linear mixed effects model with non-inferiority test to compare the effectiveness of video vs in-person delivery of PROTECT. RESULTS: PROTECT reduced depression (average 5.15 PHQ-9 points). Video and phone delivery were non-inferior to in-person delivery. The video group completed therapy more quickly than the in-person group and had a more rapid improvement in depression symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: PROTECT therapy delivered remotely reduces depression among diverse elder abuse victims. Video delivery of PROTECT could increase reach and scalability to serve more vulnerable older depressed victims.

The Diagnostic Accuracy Of Procalcitonin for Urinary Tract Infection in Hospitalized Older Adults: a Prospective Study.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of urinary tract infection (UTI) is challenging among hospitalized older adults, particularly among those with altered mental status. OBJECTIVE: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of procalcitonin (PCT) for UTI in hospitalized older adults. DESIGN: We performed a prospective cohort study of older adults (≥65 years old) admitted to a single hospital with evidence of pyuria on urinalysis. PCT was tested on initial blood samples. The reference standard was a clinical definition that included the presence of a positive urine culture and any symptom or sign of infection referable to the genitourinary tract. We also surveyed the treating physicians for their clinical judgment and performed expert adjudication of cases for the determination of UTI. PARTICIPANTS: Two hundred twenty-nine study participants at a major academic medical center. MAIN MEASURES: We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of PCT for the diagnosis of UTI. KEY RESULTS: In this study cohort, 61 (27%) participants met clinical criteria for UTI. The median age of the overall cohort was 82.6 (IQR 74.9-89.7) years. The AUC of PCT for the diagnosis of UTI was 0.56 (95% CI, 0.46-0.65). A series of sensitivity analyses on UTI definition, which included using a decreased threshold for bacteriuria, the treating physicians' clinical judgment, and independent infectious disease specialist adjudication, confirmed the negative result. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate that PCT has limited value in the diagnosis of UTI among hospitalized older adults. Clinicians should be cautious using PCT for the diagnosis of UTI in hospitalized older adults.

Baseline haemoglobin A1c and the risk of COVID-19 hospitalization among patients with diabetes in the INSIGHT Clinical Research Network.

AIMS: To examine the association between baseline glucose control and risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and in-hospital death among patients with diabetes. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of adult patients in the INSIGHT Clinical Research Network with a diabetes diagnosis and haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) measurement in the year prior to an index date of March 15, 2020. Patients were divided into four exposure groups based on their most recent HbA1c measurement (in mmol/mol): 39-46 (5.7%-6.4%), 48-57 (6.5%-7.4%), 58-85 (7.5%-9.9%), and ≥86 (10%). Time to COVID-19 hospitalization was compared in the four groups in a propensity score-weighted Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for potential confounders. Patients were followed until June 15, 2020. In-hospital death was examined as a secondary outcome. RESULTS: Of 168,803 patients who met inclusion criteria; 50,016 patients had baseline HbA1c 39-46 (5.7%-6.4%); 54,729 had HbA1c 48-57 (6.5-7.4%); 47,640 had HbA1c 58-85 (7.5^%-9.9%) and 16,418 had HbA1c ≥86 (10%). Compared with patients with HbA1c 48-57 (6.5%-7.4%), the risk of hospitalization was incrementally greater for those with HbA1c 58-85 (7.5%-9.9%) (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.34) and HbA1c ≥86 (10%) (aHR 1.40, 95% CI 1.19-1.64). The risk of COVID-19 in-hospital death was increased only in patients with HbA1c 58-85 (7.5%-9.9%) (aHR 1.29, 95% CI 1.06, 1.61). CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes patients with high baseline HbA1c had a greater risk of COVID-19 hospitalization, although association between HbA1c and in-hospital death was less consistent. Preventive efforts for COVID-19 should be focused on diabetes patients with poor glucose control.

Modifiable predictors of nonresponse to psychotherapies for late-life depression with executive dysfunction: a machine learning approach.

The study aimed to: (1) Identify distinct trajectories of change in depressive symptoms by mid-treatment during psychotherapy for late-life depression with executive dysfunction; (2) examine if nonresponse by mid-treatment predicted poor response at treatment end; and (3) identify baseline characteristics predicting an early nonresponse trajectory by mid-treatment. A sample of 221 adults 60 years and older with major depression and executive dysfunction were randomized to 12 weeks of either problem-solving therapy or supportive therapy. We used Latent Growth Mixture Models (LGMM) to detect subgroups with distinct trajectories of change in depression by mid-treatment (6th week). We conducted regression analyses with LGMM subgroups as predictors of response at treatment end. We used random forest machine learning algorithms to identify baseline predictors of LGMM trajectories. We found that ~77.5% of participants had a declining trajectory of depression in weeks 0-6, while the remaining 22.5% had a persisting depression trajectory, with no treatment differences. The LGMM trajectories predicted remission and response at treatment end. A random forests model with high prediction accuracy (80%) showed that the strongest modifiable predictors of the persisting depression trajectory were low perceived social support, followed by high neuroticism, low treatment expectancy, and low perception of the therapist as accepting. Our results suggest that modifiable risk factors of early nonresponse to psychotherapy can be identified at the outset of treatment and addressed with targeted personalized interventions. Therapists may focus on increasing meaningful social interactions, addressing concerns related to treatment benefits, and creating a positive working relationship.

Comparing the streamlined psychotherapy "Engage" with problem-solving therapy in late-life major depression. A randomized clinical trial.

Effective psychotherapies for late-life depression are underutilized, mainly because of their complexity. "Engage" is a novel, streamlined psychotherapy that relies on neurobiology to identify core behavioral pathology of late-life depression and targets it with simple interventions, co-designed with community therapists so that they can be delivered in community settings. Consecutively recruited adults (≥60 years) with major depression (n = 249) were randomly assigned to 9 weekly sessions of "Engage" or to the evidence-based Problem-Solving Therapy (PST) offered by 35 trained community social workers and assessed by blind raters. "Engage" therapists required an average of 30% less training time to achieve fidelity to treatment than PST therapists and had one-third of the PST therapists' skill drift. Both treatments led to reduction of HAM-D scores over 9 weeks. The mixed effects model-estimated HAM-D ratings were not significantly different between the two treatments at any assessment point of the trial. The one-sided 95% CI for treatment-end difference was (-∞, 0.07) HAM-D points, indicating a non-inferiority margin of 1.3 HAM-D points or greater; this margin is lower than the pre-determined 2.2-point margin. The two treatment arms had similar response (HR = 1.08, 95% CI (0.76, 1.52), p = 0.67) and remission rates (HR = 0.89, 95% CI (0.57, 1.39), p = 0.61). We conclude that "Engage" is non-inferior to PST. If disseminated, "Engage" will increase the number of therapists who can reliably treat late-life depression and make effective psychotherapy available to large numbers of depressed older adults.

Are Income-based Differences in TKA Use and Outcomes Reduced in a Single-payer System? A Large-database Comparison of the United States and Canada.

BACKGROUND: Income-based differences in the use of and outcomes in TKA have been studied; however, it is not known if different healthcare systems affect this relationship. Although Canada's single-payer healthcare system is assumed to attenuate the wealth-based differences in TKA use observed in the United States, empirical cross-border comparisons are lacking. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: (1) Does TKA use differ between Pennsylvania, USA, and Ontario, Canada? (2) Are income-based disparities in TKA use larger in Pennsylvania or Ontario? (3) Are TKA outcomes (90-day mortality, 90-day readmission, and 1-year revision rates) different between Pennsylvania and Ontario? (4) Are income-based disparities in TKA outcomes larger in Pennsylvania or Ontario? METHODS: We identified all patients hospitalized for primary TKA in this cross-border retrospective analysis, using administrative data for 2012 to 2018, and we found a total of 161,244 primary TKAs in Ontario and 208,016 TKAs in Pennsylvania. We used data from the Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council, Harrisburg, PA, USA, and the ICES (formally the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, Ontario, Canada. We linked patient-level data to the respective census data to determine community-level income using ZIP Code or postal code of residence and stratified patients into neighborhood income quintiles. We compared TKA use (age and gender, standardized per 10,000 population per year) for patients residing in the highest-income versus the lowest-income quintile neighborhoods. Similarly secondary outcomes 90-day mortality, 90-day readmission, and 1-year revision rates were compared between the two regions and analyzed by income groups. RESULTS: TKA use was higher in Pennsylvania than in Ontario overall and for all income quintiles (lowest income quartile: 31 versus 18 procedures per 10,000 population per year; p < 0.001; highest income quartile: 38 versus 23 procedures per 10,000 population per year; p < 0.001). The relative difference in use between the highest-income and lowest-income quintile was larger in Ontario (28% higher) than in Pennsylvania (23% higher); p < 0.001. Patients receiving TKA in Pennsylvania were more likely to be readmitted within 90 days and were more likely to undergo revision within the first year than patients in Ontario, but there was no difference in mortality at 1 year. When comparing income groups, there were no differences between the countries in 90-day mortality, readmission, or 1-year revision rates (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that universal health insurance through a single-payer may not reduce the income-based differences in TKA access that are known to exist in the United States. Future studies are needed determine if our results are consistent across other geographic regions and other surgical procedures. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, therapeutic study.

Long-Term Safety with Sling Mesh Implants for Stress Incontinence.

PURPOSE: We examined long-term risks and predictors of mesh erosion and reoperation following mid urethral sling procedure for stress urinary incontinence. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Women aged 18 years or older who received a mid urethral sling for stress urinary incontinence between 2008 and 2016 in outpatient surgical settings in New York State were included in our study. Those who underwent concomitant mesh pelvic organ prolapse repair were excluded. Primary outcomes were post-implantation time to erosion and reoperations. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the risks of erosion diagnosis and reoperation. RESULTS: Our cohort included 36,195 women with a mean±SD age of 53.7±12.4 years. Estimated risks of erosions and reoperations at 7 years after sling procedures were 3.7% and 6.7%, respectively. Older age (≥65 vs <65: HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.70-0.99) and high volume facilities (high vs low: HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.68-0.92) were associated with a lower risk of erosion. History of hysterectomy was associated with a higher risk of erosion (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.36-1.92). Predictors of reoperation included concurrent abdominal or native tissue transvaginal prolapse repair, previous hysterectomy and depression. CONCLUSIONS: One in 27 women had sling erosions and 1 in 15 had invasive reoperations at 7 years after sling procedures. The highest erosion cases were observed among younger White women treated at low volume facilities. Continued and vigilant surveillance of mesh in stress urinary incontinence repairs, the nature and burden of stress urinary incontinence recurrence, different types of re-treatment, patient reported outcomes and information about treating surgeons are crucial.

Effect of an Electronic Health Record "Nudge" on Opioid Prescribing and Electronic Health Record Keystrokes in Ambulatory Care.

BACKGROUND: Multiple policy initiatives encourage more cautious prescribing of opioids in light of their risks. Electronic health record (EHR) redesign can influence prescriber choices, but some redesigns add to workload. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of an EHR prescribing redesign on both opioid prescribing choices and keystrokes. DESIGN: Quality improvement quasi-experiment, analyzed as interrupted time series. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients of an academic multispecialty practice and a federally qualified health center (FQHC) who received new prescriptions for short-acting opioids, and their providers. INTERVENTION: In the redesign, new prescriptions of short-acting opioids defaulted to the CDC-recommended minimum for opioid-naïve patients, with no alerts or hard stops, such that 9 keystrokes were required for a guideline-concordant prescription and 24 for a non-concordant prescription. MAIN MEASURES: Proportion of guideline-concordant prescriptions, defined as new prescriptions with a 3-day supply or less, calculated per 2-week period. Number of mouse clicks and keystrokes needed to place prescriptions. KEY RESULTS: Across the 2 sites, 22,113 patients received a new short-acting opioid prescription from 821 providers. Before the intervention, both settings showed secular trends toward smaller-quantity prescriptions. At the academic practice, the intervention was associated with an immediate increase in guideline-concordant prescriptions from an average of 12% to 31% of all prescriptions. At the FQHC, about 44% of prescriptions were concordant at the time of the intervention, which was not associated with an additional significant increase. However, total keystrokes needed to place the concordant prescriptions decreased 62.7% from 3552 in the 6 months before the intervention to 1323 in the 6 months afterwards. CONCLUSIONS: Autocompleting prescription forms with guideline-recommended values was associated with a large increase in guideline concordance in an organization where baseline concordance was low, but not in an organization where it was already high. The redesign markedly reduced the number of keystrokes needed to place orders, with important implications for EHR-related stress. TRIAL REGISTRATION: www.ClinicalTrials.gov protocol 1710018646.

Relationships Among History of Psychosis, Cognition and Functioning in Later-Life Remitted Major Depression.

OBJECTIVE: This study tested the hypotheses that, in older adults with remitted major depression, a history of psychotic features and poorer neuropsychological performance would be independently associated with poorer everyday functioning, but that neuropsychological performance would explain more of the variance in functioning than history of psychotic features. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 73 patients aged 50 years or older with remitted psychotic major depression or nonpsychotic major depression. The dependent variables were subjective and objective measures of function. The independent variables were history of psychotic features during one or more major depressive episodes in the previous 10 years and neuropsychological performance. Linear regression models examined the association of independent variables with function, controlling for pertinent covariates. Effect sizes were calculated for the magnitude of difference in function between the patient participants and an age- and gender-matched nonpsychiatric group, and distribution of functioning scores were compared between groups. RESULTS: In separate models, history of psychotic features and poorer processing speed, executive function, and verbal learning were independently associated with poorer participant-reported functioning and performance-based functioning. However, the association of psychotic features with functioning was no longer statistically significant when tested in the same models as neuropsychological measures. Effect sizes of the difference in functioning between patients and the nonpsychiatric group were significantly larger for the remitted psychotic than the remitted nonpsychotic depression group; functioning scores were more heterogeneous in the remitted psychotic depression group. CONCLUSION: Patients with remitted psychotic depression exhibit greater, and clinically important, impairment in everyday functioning than those with remitted nonpsychotic depression. Neuropsychological impairment appears to contribute to this relationship.

Effect of Older vs Younger Age on Anthropometric and Metabolic Variables During Treatment of Psychotic Depression With Sertraline Plus Olanzapine: The STOP-PD II Study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of older versus younger age on change in anthropometric and metabolic measures during extended treatment of psychotic depression with sertraline plus olanzapine. METHODS: Two hundred and sixty-nine men and women aged 18-85 years with an episode of psychotic depression were treated with open-label sertraline plus olanzapine for up to 12 weeks. Participants who remained in remission following an 8-week stabilization phase were eligible to participate in a 36-week randomized controlled trial (RCT) that compared the efficacy and tolerability of sertraline plus olanzapine with sertraline plus placebo. Weight, waist circumference and plasma lipids, glucose, HbA1c, and insulin were measured at regular intervals during the acute, stabilization and randomized phases of the study. Linear mixed models were used to analyze the trajectories of anthropometric and metabolic measures. RESULTS: Participants aged 60 years or older experienced less weight gain and less increase in cholesterol during the combined acute and stabilization phases of the study compared with those aged 18-59 years. At the acute-stabilization termination visit, mean weight in older participants was 6.5 lb. less than premorbid weight, whereas it was 17.9 lb. more than premorbid weight in younger participants. In the RCT, there was a significant interaction of treatment and age group for the trajectory of weight, but the post hoc tests that compared age groups within each treatment arm were not statistically significant. There were no clinically significant differences between younger and older participants in glycemic measures. CONCLUSION: Older patients with psychotic depression experienced less increase in weight and total cholesterol than their younger counterparts during acute and stabilization treatment with sertraline plus olanzapine. In the older group, weight gained during the acute and stabilization phases appeared to be partial restoration of weight lost during the index episode of depression, whereas weight gain in younger participants was not.

Relationship of Hair Cortisol with History of Psychosis, Neuropsychological Performance and Functioning in Remitted Later-Life Major Depression.

INTRODUCTION: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis dysfunction that may persist into remission. Preliminary evidence suggests that this dysfunction may be associated with impaired neuropsychological performance in remitted MDD. MDD with psychotic features ("psychotic depression") is associated with greater neuropsychological and functional impairment than nonpsychotic depression, including in remission. Therefore, the aim of this exploratory study was to examine the relationships among hair cortisol concentration (HCC) - a marker of longer term endogenous cortisol exposure - and history of psychotic features, neuropsychological performance, and functioning in remitted MDD. METHODS: This cross-sectional study compared the relationship between HCC and (i) history of psychosis, (ii) neuropsychological performance, and (iii) everyday functioning in a group of 60 participants with remitted later-life MDD using Pearson's correlation coefficients. This study also measured HCC in a group of 36 nonpsychiatric volunteers to examine the clinical significance of HCC in the patient group. RESULTS: There were no statistically significant correlations between HCC and history of psychotic features, neuropsychological performance, or functioning. Furthermore, there was no clinically meaningful difference in HCC between patients and nonpsychiatric volunteers. CONCLUSION: This study is the first to examine HCC in psychotic depression. The results do not support the hypothesis that impaired neuropsychological performance, and everyday function in remitted psychotic depression is due to a sustained elevation of cortisol.

A predictive model of clinical deterioration among hospitalized COVID-19 patients by harnessing hospital course trajectories.

From early March through mid-May 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic overwhelmed hospitals in New York City. In anticipation of ventilator shortages and limited ICU bed capacity, hospital operations prioritized the development of prognostic tools to predict clinical deterioration. However, early experience from frontline physicians observed that some patients developed unanticipated deterioration after having relatively stable periods, attesting to the uncertainty of clinical trajectories among hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Prediction tools that incorporate clinical variables at one time-point, usually on hospital presentation, are suboptimal for patients with dynamic changes and evolving clinical trajectories. Therefore, our study team developed a machine-learning algorithm to predict clinical deterioration among hospitalized COVID-19 patients by extracting clinically meaningful features from complex longitudinal laboratory and vital sign values during the early period of hospitalization with an emphasis on informative missing-ness. To incorporate the evolution of the disease and clinical practice over the course of the pandemic, we utilized a time-dependent cross-validation strategy for model development. Finally, we validated our prediction model on an external validation cohort of COVID-19 patients served in a demographically distinct population from the training cohort. The main finding of our study is the identification of risk profiles of early, late and no clinical deterioration during the course of hospitalization. While risk prediction models that include simple predictors at ED presentation and clinical judgement are able to identify any deterioration vs. no deterioration, our methodology is able to isolate a particular risk group that remain stable initially but deteriorate at a later stage of the course of hospitalization. We demonstrate the superior predictive performance with the utilization of laboratory and vital sign data during the early period of hospitalization compared to the utilization of data at presentation alone. Our results will allow efficient hospital resource allocation and will motivate research in understanding the late deterioration risk group.

An Orthogonally Equivariant Estimator of the Covariance Matrix in High Dimensions and for Small Sample Sizes.

We introduce an estimation method of covariance matrices in a high-dimensional setting, i.e., when the dimension of the matrix, p, is larger than the sample size n. Specifically, we propose an orthogonally equivariant estimator. The eigenvectors of such estimator are the same as those of the sample covariance matrix. The eigenvalue estimates are obtained from an adjusted profile likelihood function derived by approximating the integral of the density function of the sample covariance matrix over its eigenvectors, which is a challenging problem in its own right. Exact solutions to the approximate likelihood equations are obtained and employed to construct estimates that involve a tuning parameter. Bootstrap and cross-validation based algorithms are proposed to choose this tuning parameter under various loss functions. Finally, comparisons with two well-known orthogonally equivariant estimators are given, which are based on Monte-Carlo risk estimates for simulated data and misclassification errors in real data analyses.

Dimensions of Poststroke Depression and Neuropsychological Deficits in Older Adults.

OBJECTIVE: Poststroke depression (PSD) has a heterogeneous presentation and is often accompanied by cognitive impairment. This study aimed to identify distinct dimensions of depressive symptoms in older adults with PSD and to evaluate their relationship to cognitive functioning. DESIGN: Cross-sectional factor and correlational analyses of patients with poststroke depression. SETTING: Patients were recruited from the community and from acute inpatient stroke rehabilitation hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Participants had suffered a stroke and met DSM-IV criteria for major depression (≥18 Montgomery Åsberg Depression Scale; MADRS). INTERVENTION: None. MEASUREMENTS: MADRS was used to quantify depression severity at study entry. Neuropsychological assessment at the time of study entry consisted of measures of Global Cognition, Attention, Executive Function, Processing Speed, Immediate Memory, Delayed Memory, and Language. RESULTS: There were 135 (age ≥50) older adult participants with PSD and varying degrees of cognitive impairment (MMSE Total ≥20). Factor analysis of the MADRS identified three factors, that is sadness, distress, and apathy. Items comprising each factor were totaled and correlated with neuropsychological domain z-score averages. Symptoms of the apathy factor (lassitude, inability to feel) were significantly associated with greater impairment in executive function, memory, and global cognition. Symptoms of the sadness and distress factors had no relationship to cognitive impairment. CONCLUSION: PSD consists of three correlated dimensions of depressive symptoms. Apathy symptoms are associated with cognitive impairment across several neuropsychological domains. PSD patients with prominent apathy may benefit from careful attention to cognitive functions and by interventions that address both psychopathology and behavioral deficits resulting from cognitive impairment.

Treatment Adequacy and Adherence as Predictors of Depression Response in Primary Care.

OBJECTIVE: Primary care is the de facto mental health system in the United States where physicians treat large numbers of depressed older adults with antidepressant medication. This study aimed to examine whether antidepressant dosage adequacy and patient adherence are associated with depression response among middle-aged and older adults prescribed with antidepressants by their primary care provider. DESIGN: A secondary analysis was conducted on a sample drawn from a randomized controlled trial comparing Treatment as Usual to Treatment Initiation Program, an adherence intervention. Treatment Initiation Program improved adherence but not depression compared to Treatment as Usual (Sirey et al., 2017). For this analysis, we examined dosing adequacy and adherence at 6 and 12 weeks as predictors of depression response in both groups at 12 and 24 weeks. SETTING: Primary care practices. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred eighty-seven older adults with depression prescribed an antidepressant for depression by their primary care provider. MEASUREMENTS: Depression response was defined as 50% reduction on the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression. Adherence was defined as taking 80% of doses at follow-up interviews (6 and 12 weeks). Patient-reported dosage and duration of antidepressant therapy was collected using the Composite Antidepressant Score (adequacy score of >3) at follow-up. RESULTS: Greater adherence, but not receipt of adequate dosage, was associated with higher likelihood of treatment response at both 12 (Odds ratio (OR) = 2.63; 95% Confidence Interval (CI), 1.19-5.84) and 24 weeks (OR = 3.09; 95% CI, 1.46-6.55). CONCLUSION: As physicians prescribe antidepressants to the diverse group of adults seen in primary care, special attention to patients' views and approach to adherence may improve depression outcomes.

The Prevalence of Cognitive Impairment Among Adults With Incident Heart Failure: The "Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke" (REGARDS) Study.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive impairment (CI) is estimated to be present in 25%-80% of heart failure (HF) patients, but its prevalence at diagnosis is unclear. To improve our understanding of cognition in HF, we determined the prevalence of CI among adults with incident HF in the REGARDS study. METHODS AND RESULTS: REGARDS is a longitudinal cohort study of adults ≥45 years of age recruited in the years 2003-2007. Incident HF was expert adjudicated. Cognitive function was assessed with the Six-Item Screener. The prevalence of CI among those with incident HF was compared with the prevalence of CI among an age-, sex-, and race-matched cohort without HF. The 436 participants with incident HF had a mean age of 70.3 years (SD 8.9), 47% were female, and 39% were black. Old age, black race, female sex, less education, and anticoagulation use were associated with CI. The prevalence of CI among participants with incident HF (14.9% [95% CI 11.7%-18.6%]) was similar to the non-HF matched cohort (13.4% [11.6%-15.4%]; P < .43). CONCLUSIONS: A total of 14.9% of the adults with incident HF had CI, suggesting that the majority of cognitive decline occurs after HF diagnosis. Increased awareness of CI among newly diagnosed patients and ways to mitigate it in the context of HF management are warranted.