Hybrid Immunity and SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies: Results of the HEROES-RECOVER Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on whether hybrid immunity differs by count and order of immunity-conferring events (infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2] or vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]). From a multi-site cohort of frontline workers, we examined the heterogeneity of the effect of hybrid immunity on SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels. METHODS: Exposures included event count and event order, categorized into 7 permutations. Outcome was level of serum antibodies against receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (total RBD-binding immunoglobulin). Means were examined up to 365 days after each of the first to seventh events. RESULTS: Analysis included 5793 participants measured from 7 August 2020 to 15 April 2023. Hybrid immunity from infection before 1 or 2 vaccine doses elicited modestly superior antibody responses after the second and third events (compared with infections or vaccine doses alone). This superiority was not repeated after additional events. Among adults infected before vaccination, adjusted geometric mean ratios (95% confidence interval [CI]) of anti-RBD early response (versus vaccinated only) were 1.23 (1.14-1.33), 1.09 (1.03-1.14), 0.87 (.81-.94), and 0.99 (.85-1.15) after the second to fifth events, respectively. Post-vaccination infections elicited superior responses; adjusted geometric mean ratios (95% CI) of anti-RBD early response (versus vaccinated only) were 0.93 (.75-1.17), 1.11 (1.06-1.16), 1.17 (1.11-1.24), and 1.20 (1.07-1.34) after the second to fifth events, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence of heterogeneity in antibody levels by permutations of infection and vaccination history could inform COVID-19 vaccination policy.

Pre-Conception And First Trimester Exposure To Pesticides And Associations With Stillbirth.

Associations of pesticide exposures during pre-conception with stillbirth have not been well explored. We linked Arizona pesticide use records with birth certificates from 2006-2020 and estimated associations of living within 500meters of any pyrethroid, organophosphate (OP), or carbamate pesticide applications during a 90 day pre-conception window or the first trimester, with stillbirth. We considered a binary measure of exposure (any exposure), as well as log-pounds and log-acres applied within 500m, in a negative control exposure framework with log-binomial regression. We included 1,237,750 births, 2,290 stillbirths, and 27 pesticides. During pre-conception, any exposure to pesticides were associated with stillbirth, including cyfluthrin (RR=1.97, 95% CI 1.17,3.32), zeta-cypermethrin (RR=1.81, 95%CI 1.20, 2.74), organophosphates as a class (RR=1.60, 95%CI 1.16, 2.19), malathion (RR=2.02, 95%CI 1.26, 3.24), carbaryl (RR=6.39, 95%CI 2.07, 19.74), and propamocarb hydrochloride (RR=7.72, 95%CI 1.10, 54.20) . During the first trimester, fenpropathrin (RR=4.36, 95%CI 1.09, 17.50), permethrin (RR=1.57, 95%CI 1.02, 2.42), organophosphates as a class (RR=1.50, 95%CI 1.11, 2.01), acephate (RR=2.31, 95%CI 1.22, 4.40), and formetanate hydrochloride (RR=7.22, 95%CI 1.03, 50.58) were associated with stillbirth. Interpretations were consistent when using continuous measures of pounds or acres of exposure. Pesticide exposures during pre-conception and first trimester may be associated with stillbirth.

Comparison of evaluation metrics of deep learning for imbalanced imaging data in osteoarthritis studies.

PURPOSE: To compare the evaluation metrics for deep learning methods that were developed using imbalanced imaging data in osteoarthritis studies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study utilized 2996 sagittal intermediate-weighted fat-suppressed knee MRIs with MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score readings from 2467 participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative study. We obtained probabilities of the presence of bone marrow lesions (BMLs) from MRIs in the testing dataset at the sub-region (15 sub-regions), compartment, and whole-knee levels based on the trained deep learning models. We compared different evaluation metrics (e.g., receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and precision-recall (PR) curves) in the testing dataset with various class ratios (presence of BMLs vs. absence of BMLs) at these three data levels to assess the model's performance. RESULTS: In a subregion with an extremely high imbalance ratio, the model achieved a ROC-AUC of 0.84, a PR-AUC of 0.10, a sensitivity of 0, and a specificity of 1. CONCLUSION: The commonly used ROC curve is not sufficiently informative, especially in the case of imbalanced data. We provide the following practical suggestions based on our data analysis: 1) ROC-AUC is recommended for balanced data, 2) PR-AUC should be used for moderately imbalanced data (i.e., when the proportion of the minor class is above 5% and less than 50%), and 3) for severely imbalanced data (i.e., when the proportion of the minor class is below 5%), it is not practical to apply a deep learning model, even with the application of techniques addressing imbalanced data issues.

Cross-Sectional Study of Clinical Predictors of Coccidioidomycosis, Arizona, USA.

Demographic and clinical indicators have been described to support identification of coccidioidomycosis; however, the interplay of these conditions has not been explored in a clinical setting. In 2019, we enrolled 392 participants in a cross-sectional study for suspected coccidioidomycosis in emergency departments and inpatient units in Coccidioides-endemic regions. We aimed to develop a predictive model among participants with suspected coccidioidomycosis. We applied a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator to specific coccidioidomycosis predictors and developed univariable and multivariable logistic regression models. Univariable models identified elevated eosinophil count as a statistically significant predictive feature of coccidioidomycosis in both inpatient and outpatient settings. Our multivariable outpatient model also identified rash (adjusted odds ratio 9.74 [95% CI 1.03-92.24]; p = 0.047) as a predictor. Our results suggest preliminary support for developing a coccidioidomycosis prediction model for use in clinical settings.

Effectiveness of 2-Dose BNT162b2 (Pfizer BioNTech) mRNA Vaccine in Preventing SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Children Aged 5-11 Years and Adolescents Aged 12-15 Years - PROTECT Cohort, July 2021-February 2022.

The BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) mRNA COVID-19 vaccine was recommended by CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices for persons aged 12-15 years (referred to as adolescents in this report) on May 12, 2021, and for children aged 5-11 years on November 2, 2021 (1-4). Real-world data on vaccine effectiveness (VE) in these age groups are needed, especially because when the B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant became predominant in the United States in December 2021, early investigations of VE demonstrated a decline in protection against symptomatic infection for adolescents aged 12-15 years and adults* (5). The PROTECT† prospective cohort of 1,364 children and adolescents aged 5-15 years was tested weekly for SARS-CoV-2, irrespective of symptoms, and upon COVID-19-associated illness during July 25, 2021-February 12, 2022. Among unvaccinated participants (i.e., those who had received no COVID-19 vaccine doses) with any laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, those with B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant infections were more likely to report COVID-19 symptoms (66%) than were those with Omicron infections (49%). Among fully vaccinated children aged 5-11 years, VE against any symptomatic and asymptomatic Omicron infection 14-82 days (the longest interval after dose 2 in this age group) after receipt of dose 2 of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 31% (95% CI = 9%-48%), adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, health information, frequency of social contact, mask use, location, and local virus circulation. Among adolescents aged 12-15 years, adjusted VE 14-149 days after dose 2 was 87% (95% CI = 49%-97%) against symptomatic and asymptomatic Delta infection and 59% (95% CI = 22%-79%) against Omicron infection. Fully vaccinated participants with Omicron infection spent an average of one half day less sick in bed than did unvaccinated participants with Omicron infection. All eligible children and adolescents should remain up to date with recommended COVID-19 vaccinations.

Test-Retest Reliability of a Semi-Structured Interview to Aid in Pediatric Traumatic Brain Injury Diagnosis.

OBJECTIVE: Retrospective self-report is typically used for diagnosing previous pediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI). A new semi-structured interview instrument (New Mexico Assessment of Pediatric TBI; NewMAP TBI) investigated test-retest reliability for TBI characteristics in both the TBI that qualified for study inclusion and for lifetime history of TBI. METHOD: One-hundred and eight-four mTBI (aged 8-18), 156 matched healthy controls (HC), and their parents completed the NewMAP TBI within 11 days (subacute; SA) and 4 months (early chronic; EC) of injury, with a subset returning at 1 year (late chronic; LC). RESULTS: The test-retest reliability of common TBI characteristics [loss of consciousness (LOC), post-traumatic amnesia (PTA), retrograde amnesia, confusion/disorientation] and post-concussion symptoms (PCS) were examined across study visits. Aside from PTA, binary reporting (present/absent) for all TBI characteristics exhibited acceptable (≥0.60) test-retest reliability for both Qualifying and Remote TBIs across all three visits. In contrast, reliability for continuous data (exact duration) was generally unacceptable, with LOC and PCS meeting acceptable criteria at only half of the assessments. Transforming continuous self-report ratings into discrete categories based on injury severity resulted in acceptable reliability. Reliability was not strongly affected by the parent completing the NewMAP TBI. CONCLUSIONS: Categorical reporting of TBI characteristics in children and adolescents can aid clinicians in retrospectively obtaining reliable estimates of TBI severity up to a year post-injury. However, test-retest reliability is strongly impacted by the initial data distribution, selected statistical methods, and potentially by patient difficulty in distinguishing among conceptually similar medical concepts (i.e., PTA vs. confusion).

Association of mRNA Vaccination With Clinical and Virologic Features of COVID-19 Among US Essential and Frontline Workers.

Importance: Data on the epidemiology of mild to moderately severe COVID-19 are needed to inform public health guidance. Objective: To evaluate associations between 2 or 3 doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine and attenuation of symptoms and viral RNA load across SARS-CoV-2 viral lineages. Design, Setting, and Participants: A prospective cohort study of essential and frontline workers in Arizona, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, Texas, and Utah with COVID-19 infection confirmed by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction testing and lineage classified by whole genome sequencing of specimens self-collected weekly and at COVID-19 illness symptom onset. This analysis was conducted among 1199 participants with SARS-CoV-2 from December 14, 2020, to April 19, 2022, with follow-up until May 9, 2022, reported. Exposures: SARS-CoV-2 lineage (origin strain, Delta variant, Omicron variant) and COVID-19 vaccination status. Main Outcomes and Measures: Clinical outcomes included presence of symptoms, specific symptoms (including fever or chills), illness duration, and medical care seeking. Virologic outcomes included viral load by quantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction testing along with viral viability. Results: Among 1199 participants with COVID-19 infection (714 [59.5%] women; median age, 41 years), 14.0% were infected with the origin strain, 24.0% with the Delta variant, and 62.0% with the Omicron variant. Participants vaccinated with the second vaccine dose 14 to 149 days before Delta infection were significantly less likely to be symptomatic compared with unvaccinated participants (21/27 [77.8%] vs 74/77 [96.1%]; OR, 0.13 [95% CI, 0-0.6]) and, when symptomatic, those vaccinated with the third dose 7 to 149 days before infection were significantly less likely to report fever or chills (5/13 [38.5%] vs 62/73 [84.9%]; OR, 0.07 [95% CI, 0.0-0.3]) and reported significantly fewer days of symptoms (10.2 vs 16.4; difference, -6.1 [95% CI, -11.8 to -0.4] days). Among those with Omicron infection, the risk of symptomatic infection did not differ significantly for the 2-dose vaccination status vs unvaccinated status and was significantly higher for the 3-dose recipients vs those who were unvaccinated (327/370 [88.4%] vs 85/107 [79.4%]; OR, 2.0 [95% CI, 1.1-3.5]). Among symptomatic Omicron infections, those vaccinated with the third dose 7 to 149 days before infection compared with those who were unvaccinated were significantly less likely to report fever or chills (160/311 [51.5%] vs 64/81 [79.0%]; OR, 0.25 [95% CI, 0.1-0.5]) or seek medical care (45/308 [14.6%] vs 20/81 [24.7%]; OR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.2-0.9]). Participants with Delta and Omicron infections who received the second dose 14 to 149 days before infection had a significantly lower mean viral load compared with unvaccinated participants (3 vs 4.1 log10 copies/µL; difference, -1.0 [95% CI, -1.7 to -0.2] for Delta and 2.8 vs 3.5 log10 copies/µL, difference, -1.0 [95% CI, -1.7 to -0.3] for Omicron). Conclusions and Relevance: In a cohort of US essential and frontline workers with SARS-CoV-2 infections, recent vaccination with 2 or 3 mRNA vaccine doses less than 150 days before infection with Delta or Omicron variants, compared with being unvaccinated, was associated with attenuated symptoms, duration of illness, medical care seeking, or viral load for some comparisons, although the precision and statistical significance of specific estimates varied.

Comparison of a Novel Rapid Lateral Flow Assay to Enzyme Immunoassay Results for Early Diagnosis of Coccidioidomycosis.

BACKGROUND: Coccidioidomycosis (CM) is a common cause of community-acquired pneumonia where CM is endemic. Manifestations include self-limited pulmonary infection, chronic fibrocavitary pulmonary disease, and disseminated coccidioidomycosis. Most infections are identified by serological assays including enzyme-linked immunoassay (EIA), complement fixation, and immunodiffusion. These are time-consuming and take days to result, impeding early diagnosis. A new lateral flow assay (LFA; Sona; IMMY, Norman, OK) improves time-to-result to 1 hour. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled 392 patients with suspected CM, compared the LFA with standard EIA and included procalcitonin evaluation. RESULTS: Compared with standard EIA, LFA demonstrates 31% sensitivity (95% confidence interval [CI], 20-44%) and 92% specificity (95% CI, 88-95%). Acute pulmonary disease (74%) was the most common clinical syndrome. Hospitalized patients constituted 75% of subjects, and compared with outpatients, they more frequently had ≥3 previous healthcare facility visits (P = .05), received antibacterials (P < .01), and had >3 antibacterial courses (P < .01). Procalcitonin (PCT) was <0.25 ng/mL in 52 (83%) EIA-positive patients, suggesting infection was not bacterial. CONCLUSIONS: When CM is a possible diagnosis, LFA identified nearly one-third of EIA-positive infections. Combined with PCT <0.25 ng/mL, LFA could reduce unnecessary antibacterial use by 77%.

Interim Estimate of Vaccine Effectiveness of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) Vaccine in Preventing SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Adolescents Aged 12-17 Years - Arizona, July-December 2021.

The BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) mRNA COVID-19 vaccine has demonstrated high efficacy in preventing infection with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) in randomized placebo-controlled Phase III trials in persons aged 12-17 years (referred to as adolescents in this report) (1); however, data on real-word vaccine effectiveness (VE) among adolescents are limited (1-3). As of December 2021, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for adolescents aged 16-17 years and under FDA emergency use authorization for those aged 12-15 years. In a prospective cohort in Arizona, 243 adolescents aged 12-17 years were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) each week, irrespective of symptoms, and upon onset of COVID-19-like illness during July 25-December 4, 2021; the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant was the predominant strain during this study period. During the study, 190 adolescents contributed fully vaccinated person-time (≥14 days after receiving 2 doses of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine), 30 contributed partially vaccinated person-time (receipt of 1 dose or receipt of 2 doses but with the second dose completed <14 days earlier), and 66 contributed unvaccinated person-time. Using the Cox proportional-hazards model, the estimated VE of full Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection was 92% (95% CI = 79%-97%), adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, health information, frequency of social contact, mask use, location, and local virus circulation. These findings from a real-world setting indicate that 2 doses of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine are highly effective in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection among Arizona adolescents. CDC recommends COVID-19 vaccination for all eligible persons in the United States, including persons aged 12-17 years.

Data reduction prior to inference: Are there consequences of comparing groups using a t-test based on principal component scores?

Researchers often use a two-step process to analyze multivariate data. First, dimensionality is reduced using a technique such as principal component analysis, followed by a group comparison using a t -test or analysis of variance. Although this practice is often discouraged, the statistical properties of this procedure are not well understood, starting with the hypothesis being tested. We suggest that this approach might be considering two distinct hypotheses, one of which is a global test of no differences in the mean vectors, and the other being a focused test of a specific linear combination where the coefficients have been estimated from the data. We study the asymptotic properties of the two-sample t -statistic for these two scenarios, assuming a nonsparse setting. We show that the size of the global test agrees with the presumed level but that the test has poor power. In contrast, the size of the focused test can be arbitrarily distorted with certain mean and covariance structures. A simple method is provided to correct the size of the focused test. Data analyses and simulations are used to illustrate the results. Recommendations on the use of this two-step method and the related use of principal components for prediction are provided.

Neurosensory Screening and Symptom Provocation in Pediatric Mild Traumatic Brain Injury.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate diagnostic/prognostic implications of neurosensory testing during the subacute stage in patients with pediatric mild traumatic brain injury (pmTBI). SETTING: Recruitment from pediatric emergency department and urgent care clinics, assessment in a controlled environment. PARTICIPANTS: In total, 146 pmTBI patients evaluated 7.4 ± 2.3 days and approximately 4 months postinjury; 104 age/sex-matched healthy controls (HCs) at equivalent time points. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. MAIN MEASURES: Neurosensory examination based on sequence of 10 established tests of vestibular-ocular, oculomotor, vestibulospinal, and visual functioning. RESULTS: The amount of symptom provocation (positive change from pretest symptomatology) was significantly increased in pmTBI relative to HCs on every subtest 1 week postinjury, as were deficits in monocular accommodative amplitude and King-Devick Test errors. However, symptom provocation did not meaningfully alter diagnostic sensitivity/specificity relative to more easily obtained pretest symptom ratings. Evidence of clinically significant symptom provocation 1 week postinjury improved sensitivity (Δ = +12.9%) of identifying patients with persistent postconcussive symptoms 4 months postinjury on an independent symptom measure. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic sensitivity/specificity of neurosensory testing in acutely concussed youth may be limited at 1 week postinjury as a function of natural recovery occurring in most emergency department cohorts. Neurosensory screening may have greater utility for identifying patients who experience delayed recovery.

PrEP Knowledge and Attitudes Among Adults Attending Public Health Clinics in Southern Arizona.

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is underutilized among Hispanics, women, and low-income individuals. To better understand PrEP barriers in this population, questionnaires were administered to 500 patients attending public health clinics in southern Arizona which provide family planning and sexually transmitted infections care. Sixty-three percent believed that they had no risk of HIV infection. When asked "Before today, did you know that there was a pill that can prevent HIV infection?" 80% of persons answered no. Among women, 88% answered no to this question. As expected, individuals with a higher perceived HIV risk (OR 1.76) or one HIV risk factor (OR 5.85) had a higher probability of knowledge. Among survey participants 87% would take a daily pill, 91% would visit a health-care provider every 3 months, and 92% would have laboratory testing every 3 months. Fifty-four percent would not be afraid or embarrassed if friends or family knew they were taking PrEP. Seventy-two percent would take PrEP despite temporary nausea. Sixty-two percent would pay ≥ $40 every 3 months for PrEP. Lack of knowledge, rather than patient attitudes, is the more important barrier to wider utilization of PrEP among individuals, especially women, attending public health clinics in Southern Arizona. Future efforts need to focus on education and access to PrEP in underserved populations including women and Hispanics.

Delays in Coccidioidomycosis Diagnosis and Associated Healthcare Utilization, Tucson, Arizona, USA.

Tucson, Arizona, USA, is a highly coccidioidomycosis-endemic area. We conducted a retrospective review of 815 patients in Tucson over 2.7 years. Of 276 patients with coccidioidomycosis, 246 had a delay in diagnosis; median delay was 23 days. Diagnosis delay was associated with coccidioidomycosis-related costs totaling $589,053 and included extensive antibacterial drug use.

Exposure to Diabetes in Utero Is Associated with Earlier Pubertal Timing and Faster Pubertal Growth in the Offspring: The EPOCH Study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of in utero exposure to maternal diabetes with surrogate measures of offspring pubertal timing (age at peak height velocity [APHV]) and speed of pubertal growth (peak height velocity [PHV]). STUDY DESIGN: Data from 77 exposed and 340 unexposed youth followed from age 2 to 19 years (51% non-Hispanic white, 50% female) were analyzed using the Exploring Perinatal Outcomes among Children study, a historical prospective cohort. Maternal diabetes status was collected from obstetric records, and child heights from 2 years to current age from pediatric records. Other covariates were collected during research visits. The superimposition by translation and rotation method, using height measurements (4-52 per participant), modeled APHV and PHV. Accelerated failure time analyses were used to test whether exposure to maternal diabetes was associated with younger APHV and faster PHV. RESULTS: Adjusting for child's sex, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status, median APHV was reached ~3 months earlier in youth exposed to maternal diabetes compared with unexposed youth (P < .03). Youth exposed to maternal diabetes had a faster PHV than unexposed youth: exposed girls had 10.5% greater median PHV compared with unexposed girls and exposed boys had a 4.0% greater median PHV compared with unexposed boys (P < .001 for exposure by sex interaction). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide evidence that exposure to maternal diabetes in utero is associated with earlier pubertal timing and faster pubertal growth. Whether earlier puberty or faster speed of pubertal growth mediates the association between maternal diabetes exposure and later chronic disease risk remains to be studied.

Regularized continuous-time Markov Model via elastic net.

Continuous-time Markov models are commonly used to analyze longitudinal transitions between multiple disease states in panel data, where participants' disease states are only observed at multiple time points, and the exact state paths between observations are unknown. However, when covariate effects are incorporated and allowed to vary for different transitions, the number of potential parameters to estimate can become large even when the number of covariates is moderate, and traditional maximum likelihood estimation and subset model selection procedures can easily become unstable due to overfitting. We propose a novel regularized continuous-time Markov model with the elastic net penalty, which is capable of simultaneous variable selection and estimation for large number of parameters. We derive an efficient coordinate descent algorithm to solve the penalized optimization problem, which is fully automatic and data driven. We further consider an extension where one of the states is death, and time of death is exactly known but the state path leading to death is unknown. The proposed method is extensively evaluated in a simulation study, and demonstrated in an application to real-world data on airflow limitation state transitions.

Food Source Prediction of Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli Outbreaks Using Demographic and Outbreak Characteristics, United States, 1998-2014.

BACKGROUND: Foodborne illness is a continuing public health problem in the United States. Although outbreak-associated illnesses represent a fraction of all foodborne illnesses, foodborne outbreak investigations provide critical information on the pathogens, foods, and food-pathogen pairs causing illness. Therefore, identification of a food source in an outbreak investigation is key to impacting food safety. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to systematically identify outbreak-associated case demographic and outbreak characteristics that are predictive of food sources using Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) outbreaks reported to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from 1998 to 2014 with a single ingredient identified. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Differences between STEC food sources by all candidate predictors were assessed univariately. Multinomial logistic regression was used to build a prediction model, which was internally validated using a split-sample approach. RESULTS: There were 206 single-ingredient STEC outbreaks reported to CDC, including 125 (61%) beef outbreaks, 30 (14%) dairy outbreaks, and 51 (25%) vegetable outbreaks. The model differentiated food sources, with an overall sensitivity of 80% in the derivation set and 61% in the validation set. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the feasibility for a tool for public health professionals to rule out food sources during hypothesis generation in foodborne outbreak investigation and to improve efficiency while complementing existing methods.

Methods for identifying subject-specific abnormalities in neuroimaging data.

Algorithms that are capable of capturing subject-specific abnormalities (SSA) in neuroimaging data have long been an area of focus for diverse neuropsychiatric conditions such as multiple sclerosis, schizophrenia, and traumatic brain injury. Several algorithms have been proposed that define SSA in patients (i.e., comparison group) relative to image intensity levels derived from healthy controls (HC) (i.e., reference group) based on extreme values. However, the assumptions underlying these approaches have not always been fully validated, and may be dependent on the statistical distributions of the transformed data. The current study evaluated variations of two commonly used techniques ("pothole" method and standardization with an independent reference group) for identifying SSA using simulated data (derived from normal, t and chi-square distributions) and fractional anisotropy maps derived from 50 HC. Results indicated substantial group-wise bias in the estimation of extreme data points using the pothole method, with the degree of bias being inversely related to sample size. Statistical theory was utilized to develop a distribution-corrected z-score (DisCo-Z) threshold, with additional simulations demonstrating elimination of the bias and a more consistent estimation of extremes based on expected distributional properties. Data from previously published studies examining SSA in mild traumatic brain injury were then re-analyzed using the DisCo-Z method, with results confirming the evidence of group-wise bias. We conclude that the benefits of identifying SSA in neuropsychiatric research are substantial, but that proposed SSA approaches require careful implementation under the different distributional properties that characterize neuroimaging data.

Gene expression profiles predictive of outcome and age in infant acute lymphoblastic leukemia: a Children's Oncology Group study.

Gene expression profiling was performed on 97 cases of infant ALL from Children's Oncology Group Trial P9407. Statistical modeling of an outcome predictor revealed 3 genes highly predictive of event-free survival (EFS), beyond age and MLL status: FLT3, IRX2, and TACC2. Low FLT3 expression was found in a group of infants with excellent outcome (n = 11; 5-year EFS of 100%), whereas differential expression of IRX2 and TACC2 partitioned the remaining infants into 2 groups with significantly different survivals (5-year EFS of 16% vs 64%; P < .001). When infants with MLL-AFF1 were analyzed separately, a 7-gene classifier was developed that split them into 2 distinct groups with significantly different outcomes (5-year EFS of 20% vs 65%; P < .001). In this classifier, elevated expression of NEGR1 was associated with better EFS, whereas IRX2, EPS8, and TPD52 expression were correlated with worse outcome. This classifier also predicted EFS in an independent infant ALL cohort from the Interfant-99 trial. When evaluating expression profiles as a continuous variable relative to patient age, we further identified striking differences in profiles in infants less than or equal to 90 days of age and those more than 90 days of age. These age-related patterns suggest different mechanisms of leukemogenesis and may underlie the differential outcomes historically seen in these age groups.

Does a large infant head or a short perineal body increase the risk of obstetrical perineal trauma?

BACKGROUND: Perineal trauma after vaginal delivery can have significant long-term consequences. It is unknown if a larger infant head circumference or smaller maternal perineal anatomy are risk factors for perineal trauma after vaginal delivery. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of low-risk nulliparous women. Data collected included maternal characteristics, antepartum Pelvic Organ Prolapse Quantification measurements of the perineal body and genital hiatus, labor characteristics, perineal trauma, and infant head circumference. Perineal trauma was defined as trauma that extended into the muscles of the perineum (second-degree or deeper). Univariate and multivariate logistic models were created to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95 percent confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We observed 448 vaginal births. Multivariate analysis demonstrated a significant association between infant head circumference at birth and perineal trauma: OR 1.22 for each increase of 1 cm in head circumference (95% CI 1.05-1.43). There was no association between perineal body or genital hiatus length and perineal trauma. CONCLUSIONS: In nulliparous low-risk women a larger infant head circumference at birth increases the likelihood of perineal trauma, although the effect is modest. Antenatal perineal body and genital hiatus measurements do not predict perineal trauma. These results do not support alteration in mode of delivery or other obstetric practices.

Acute Respiratory Failure From Early Pandemic COVID-19: Noninvasive Respiratory Support vs Mechanical Ventilation.

BACKGROUND: The optimal strategy for initial respiratory support in patients with respiratory failure associated with COVID-19 is unclear, and the initial strategy may affect outcomes. RESEARCH QUESTION: Which initial respiratory support strategy is associated with improved outcomes in patients with COVID-19 with acute respiratory failure? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: All patients with COVID-19 requiring respiratory support and admitted to a large health care network were eligible for inclusion. We compared patients treated initially with noninvasive respiratory support (NIRS; noninvasive positive pressure ventilation by facemask or high-flow nasal oxygen) with patients treated initially with invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). The primary outcome was time to in-hospital death analyzed using an inverse probability of treatment weighted Cox model adjusted for potential confounders. Secondary outcomes included unweighted and weighted assessments of mortality, lengths of stay (ICU and hospital), and time to intubation. RESULTS: Nearly one-half of the 2,354 patients (47%) who met inclusion criteria received IMV first, and 53% received initial NIRS. Overall, in-hospital mortality was 38% (37% for IMV and 39% for NIRS). Initial NIRS was associated with an increased hazard of death compared with initial IMV (hazard ratio, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.03-1.94), but also an increased hazard of leaving the hospital sooner that waned with time (noninvasive support by time interaction: hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-0.98). INTERPRETATION: Patients with COVID-19 with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure initially treated with NIRS showed an increased hazard of in-hospital death.