Economic evaluations in paediatric dentistry clinical trials.

Economic evaluations play an important role in identifying the cost-effectiveness of alternative healthcare programmes, informing decisions surrounding funding and the allocation of resources. This paper outlines the basic principles of economic evaluation and how it can be conducted alongside a clinical trial. Furthermore, it considers the ways in which evidence from these studies can be used, and the challenges researchers are faced with when conducting economic evaluations in the field of children's oral health.

Natural experiments for the evaluation of place-based public health interventions: a methodology scoping review.

Introduction: Place-based public health evaluations are increasingly making use of natural experiments. This scoping review aimed to provide an overview of the design and use of natural experiment evaluations (NEEs), and an assessment of the plausibility of the as-if randomization assumption. Methods: A systematic search of three bibliographic databases (Pubmed, Web of Science and Ovid-Medline) was conducted in January 2020 to capture publications that reported a natural experiment of a place-based public health intervention or outcome. For each, study design elements were extracted. An additional evaluation of as-if randomization was conducted by 12 of this paper's authors who evaluated the same set of 20 randomly selected studies and assessed 'as-if ' randomization for each. Results: 366 NEE studies of place-based public health interventions were identified. The most commonly used NEE approach was a Difference-in-Differences study design (25%), followed by before-after studies (23%) and regression analysis studies. 42% of NEEs had likely or probable as-if randomization of exposure (the intervention), while for 25% this was implausible. An inter-rater agreement exercise indicated poor reliability of as-if randomization assignment. Only about half of NEEs reported some form of sensitivity or falsification analysis to support inferences. Conclusion: NEEs are conducted using many different designs and statistical methods and encompass various definitions of a natural experiment, while it is questionable whether all evaluations reported as natural experiments should be considered as such. The likelihood of as-if randomization should be specifically reported, and primary analyses should be supported by sensitivity analyses and/or falsification tests. Transparent reporting of NEE designs and evaluation methods will contribute to the optimum use of place-based NEEs.

Forecasting future dental health expenditures: Development of a framework using data from 32 OECD countries.

OBJECTIVE: To (1) develop a framework for forecasting future dental expenditures, using currently available information, and (2) identify relevant research and data gaps such that dental expenditure predictions can continuously be improved in the future. METHODS: Our analyses focused on 32 OECD countries. Dependent on the number of predictors, we employed dynamic univariate and multivariate modelling approaches with various model specifications. For univariate modelling, an auto-regressive (AR) dynamic model was employed to incorporate historical trends in dental expenditures. Multivariate modelling took account of historical trends, as well as of relationships between dental expenditures, dental morbidity, economic growth in terms of gross domestic product and demographic changes. RESULTS: Estimates of dental expenditures varied substantially across different model specifications. Models relying on dental morbidity as one of the predictors performed worst regardless of their specification. Using the best-fitted model specification, that is the univariate second-order autoregression [AR(2)], the forecasted dental expenditures across 32 OECD countries amounted to US$316bn (95% forecasted interval, FI: 258-387) in 2020, US$434bn (95%FI: 354-532) in 2030 and US$594bn (95%FI: 485-728) in 2040. Per capita spending in 2040 was forecasted to be highest in Germany (US$889, 95%FI: 726-1090) and lowest in Mexico (US$52, 95%FI: 42-64). CONCLUSIONS: The present study demonstrates the feasibility and challenges in predicting dental expenditures and can serve as a basis for improvement towards more sustainable and resilient health policy and resource planning. Within the limitations of available data sources, our findings suggest that dental expenditures in OECD countries could increase substantially over the next two decades and vary considerably across countries. For more accurate estimation and a better understanding of determinants of dental expenditures, more comprehensive data on dental spending and dental morbidity are urgently needed.