Reduction of free-roaming cat population requires high-intensity neutering in spatial contiguity to mitigate compensatory effects.

When free-roaming in natural areas, the domestic cat (Felis silvestris catus) is ranked high among the most destructive alien species. Near human dwellings, it might pose a risk to humans, impair sanitation, and suffer from poor welfare. Cats' popularity as companion animals complicates their population control. Thus, culling is often replaced by a fertility control method called "trap­neuter­return/release" (TNR), considered more humane. Despite the extensive application of TNR, a long-term controlled study was never performed to test its effectiveness. We present a uniquely designed controlled field experiment for examining TNR effectiveness. The study was performed over a 12-y period, divided into preintervention and mixed- and full-intervention phases, and spanned a 20-km2 urban area. Trends of cat, intact-female, and kitten counts, cat reproduction, and carcass reports were compared among study phases and areas with different neutering intensities. The cat population increased during the first two study phases and did not decline in highly neutered populations, presumably due to cat immigration. Expansion of high-intensity neutering to the entire city in the full-intervention phase (>70% neutering percentage) reversed cat population growth, reaching an annual approximately 7% reduction. This population reduction was limited by a rebound increase in cat reproduction and longevity. We conclude that cat population management by TNR should be performed with high intensity, continuously, and in geographic contiguity to enable population reduction. To enhance management effectiveness and mitigate compensatory effects, we recommend further evaluating an integrated strategy that combines TNR with complementary methods (e.g., vital resource regulation, ill cat euthanasia, and adoption).

Echinococcus multilocularis Infection, Southern Ontario, Canada.

Alveolar echinococcosis, the disease caused by infection with the intermediate stage of the Echinococcus multilocularis tapeworm, is typically fatal in humans and dogs when left untreated. Since 2012, alveolar echinococcosis has been diagnosed in 5 dogs, 3 lemurs, and 1 chipmunk in southern Ontario, Canada, a region previously considered free of these tapeworms. Because of human and animal health concerns, we estimated prevalence of infection in wild canids across southern Ontario. During 2015-2017, we collected fecal samples from 460 wild canids (416 coyotes, 44 foxes) during postmortem examination and analyzed them by using a semiautomated magnetic capture probe DNA extraction and real-time PCR method for E. multilocularis DNA. Surprisingly, 23% (95% CI 20%-27%) of samples tested positive. By using a spatial scan test, we identified an infection cluster (relative risk 2.26; p = 0.002) in the western-central region of the province. The cluster encompasses areas of dense human population, suggesting zoonotic transmission.

A cross-sectional study on feather cover damage in Canadian laying hens in non-cage housing systems.

BACKGROUND: Feather damage (FD) resulting from feather pecking remains a concern in non-cage housing systems for laying hens worldwide. This study aimed to identify bird-, housing-, and management-related factors associated with FD in non-cage housing systems as the egg production sector phases out the conventional cage system in Canada. A survey on housing and management practices was developed and distributed to 122 laying hen farms where 39 respondents provided information on non-cage flocks. Farmers visually assessed 50 birds throughout the barn for FD using a 0-2 scoring scale according to severity. Prevalence of FD was calculated as the percentage of birds with any form of FD (score > 0). Multivariable linear regression modeling was used to identify factors associated with FD prevalence. RESULTS: Six variables were included in the final model and accounted for 64% of the variation in FD between farms. FD prevalence was higher with increasing flock age (0.9% ± 0.29) and when birds were housed in all wire/slatted barns compared with all litter barns (37.6% ± 13.1). Additionally, FD prevalence tended to be higher in barns with manure removal only after depopulation (20.1% ± 10.70). Enrichment also tended to be associated with higher FD (19.1% ± 8.04), possibly indicating that it was provided after FD was observed as a control measure, or, was not efficient in reducing the development of FD. CONCLUSIONS: These findings emphasize the role of litter provision and management (e.g., manure removal effects on air quality), and its potential impact on FD among laying hens in non-cage housing systems in Canada. Further longitudinal and/or intervention studies are needed to assess the potential of the identified factors to function as a management strategy to prevent or reduce FD in non-cage housed laying hens.

Heartworm infection in domestic dogs in Canada, 1977-2016: Prevalence, time trend, and efficacy of prophylaxis.

Dirofilaria immitis (heartworm) is a mosquito-borne parasite that primarily infects domestic and wild canids. The objectives of this study were to i) determine if there has been a temporal change in prevalence of heartworm infection among domestic dogs in Canada from 1977 to 2016; ii) explore the spatial extension of heartworm across Canada using choropleth maps; and iii) assess the efficacy of preventive drugs using the estimated "Attributable Fraction Exposed." Heartworm surveys that collected data from 1977 to 2010 and serological laboratory data from 2007 to 2016 were analyzed. The data depicted a decrease in heartworm prevalence, both nationally and provincially, from 1977 to the early 2000s. However, an increase in prevalence was identified for tested dog populations in Manitoba and Quebec from 2007 to 2016. Chemoprophylaxis was associated with an estimated 93.0% [95% confidence interval (CI): 92.85, 93.3] reduction of heartworm infections in domestic dogs in Canada from 1977 to 2010.

Infection par le ver du coeur chez les chiens domestiques au Canada, 1977­2016 : prévalence, tendance dans le temps et efficacité de la prophylaxie. Dirofilaria immitis (ver du coeur) est un parasite transporté par des moustiques qui infecte principalement les canidés domestiques et sauvages. Les objectifs de cette étude consistaient : i) à déterminer s'il y avait eu un changement temporel de la prévalence de l'infection parmi les chiens domestiques au Canada de 1977 à 2016; ii) à explorer le prolongement spatial du ver du coeur au Canada à l'aide de cartes choroplèthe; et iii) à évaluer l'efficacité des médicaments préventifs en utilisant l'estimation de la «fraction attribuable exposée¼. Les sondages sur le ver du coeur qui ont recueilli des données de 1977 à 2010 et les données sérologiques de laboratoire de 2007 à 2016 ont été analysés. Les données illustraient une baisse de la prévalence du ver du coeur, tant à l'échelle nationale que provinciale, de 1977 au début des années 2000. Cependant, une hausse de la prévalence a été identifiée pour les populations de chiens testées au Manitoba et au Québec de 2007 à 2016. La chimioprophylaxie était associée à une réduction estimée de 93,0 % [intervalle de confiance (IC) de 95 % : 92,85, 93,3] des infections du ver du coeur chez les chiens domestiques au Canada de 1977 à 2010.(Traduit par Isabelle Vallières).

Perceptions of community cats and preferences for their management in Guelph, Ontario. Part II: A qualitative analysis.

Implementation of cat population management strategies that are effective and supported by the community requires knowledge of local contexts, public values, and preferences. From 2014 to 2015 the Guelph Cat Population Taskforce surveyed Guelph, Ontario residents to investigate attitudes and values concerning community cats and preferences for cat population management. Responses from 449 individuals were received through a combination of paper and online surveys. The results of a qualitative analysis of 7 open-ended survey questions are reported herein. Results indicate that community cat issues are largely attributed to perceptions of irresponsible pet ownership practices, highlighting the opportunity for public education. Participants identified the whole community as responsible for addressing the problem, suggesting the value of collaborative management approaches. This analysis also illuminated opportunities for combining well-supported strategies such as accessible or low-cost spay/neuter and trap-neuter-return (TNR) to implement a multifaceted approach. Overall, Guelph residents who responded to the survey gave a high priority to proactive, humane management of community cats.

Perceptions à l'égard des chats communautaires et préférences pour leur gestion à Guelph, en Ontario. Partie II : analyse qualitative. La mise en oeuvre de stratégies de gestion de la population de chats qui sont efficaces et appuyées par la collectivité exige la connaissance des contextes locaux ainsi que des valeurs et des préférences du public. De 2014 à 2015, le Groupe de travail sur la population de chats de Guelph a effectué une enquête auprès des résidents de Guelph, en Ontario, afin de connaître leurs attitudes et leurs valeurs à propos des chats communautaires et de leurs préférences pour la gestion de la population de chats. Des réponses ont été reçues de la part de 449 personnes sous forme d'une combinaison de sondages en format papier et en ligne. Les résultats de l'analyse qualitative de sept questions à développement sont présentés dans le présent article. Les résultats indiquent que les problèmes liés aux chats communautaires sont attribués en grande partie à des perceptions de pratiques de possession irresponsable d'animaux de compagnie, ce qui souligne une occasion d'éducation publique. Les participants ont identifié l'ensemble de la collectivité comme étant responsable de la résolution du problème, ce qui suggère la valeur d'approches de gestion concertée. Cette analyse a aussi mis en lumière des occasions de combiner des stratégies bien soutenues, comme la stérilisation accessible ou à faible coût et la capture-stérilisation-mise en liberté, afin de mettre en oeuvre une approche à facettes multiples. Dans l'ensemble, les résidents de Guelph qui ont répondu à l'enquête ont accordé une priorité élevée à la gestion proactive et non cruelle des chats communautaires.(Traduit par Isabelle Vallières).

Perceptions of community cats and preferences for their management in Guelph, Ontario. Part I: A quantitative analysis.

In 2014, 116 Guelph residents were surveyed to investigate attitudes about community cats and preferences for population management. There are an estimated 29 579 owned cats in Guelph, an estimated 40% of residents allow outdoor access to their cat(s), and 8054 households (15%) feed community cats. Participants reported more concern with community cat welfare than nuisance behavior. There were high levels of support for responsible pet ownership education (90%), accessible or low-cost spay/neuter (86%), and trap-neuter-return (78%), and low levels of support for inaction (4%) and euthanasia (20%). Respondents who did not own cats or who considered cats as "pests" or a "non-native, invasive species" were more supportive of euthanasia. Results suggest that Guelph residents want to see action taken to address community cat population concerns, and that proactive management tools such as education, accessible or low-cost spay/neuter, and trap-neuter-return would be well supported and less divisive than euthanasia.

Perceptions à l'égard des chats communautaires et préférences pour leur gestion à Guelph, en Ontario. Partie I : analyse quantitative. En 2014, on a réalisé une enquête auprès de 116 résidents de Guelph afin d'étudier leurs attitudes à propos des chats communautaires et leurs préférences pour la gestion de la population. Il y a environ 29 579 chats appartenant à des propriétaires à Guelph et on estime qu'environ 40 % des résidents permettent à leurs chats d'aller à l'extérieur et que 8054 ménages (15 %) nourrissent les chats communautaires. Les participants ont signalé plus de préoccupations pour le bien-être des chats communautaires que pour le comportement nuisible. Il y avait des taux élevés d'appui pour l'éducation sur la possession responsable d'un animal de compagnie (90 %), la stérilisation accessible ou à faible coût (86 %) et la capture-stérilisationmise en liberté (78 %) et de faibles taux de soutien pour l'inaction (4 %) et l'euthanasie (20 %). Les répondants qui ne possédaient pas de chats ou qui considéraient les chats comme des «animaux nuisibles¼ ou une «espèce non indigène et envahissante¼ manifestaient plus de soutien pour l'euthanasie. Les résultats suggèrent que les résidents de Guelph désirent que des mesures soient prises pour aborder les préoccupations liées à la population de chats communautaires et que des outils de gestion proactive, comme l'éducation, la stérilisation accessible ou à faible coût ainsi que la capture-stérilisation-mise en liberté seraient accueillis favorablement et seraient moins controversés que l'euthanasie.(Traduit par Isabelle Vallières).

A descriptive analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of enteric diseases in New Brunswick, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Enteric diseases affect thousands of Canadians annually and several large outbreaks have occurred due to infection with enteric pathogens. The objectives of this study were to describe the spatial and temporal distributions of reportable Campylobacter, Escherichia coli, Giardia, Salmonella and Shigella from 1994 to 2002 in New Brunswick, Canada. By examining the spatial and temporal distributions of disease incidence, hypotheses as to potential disease risk factors were formulated. METHODS: Time series plots of monthly disease incidence were examined for seasonal and secular trends. Seasonality of disease incidence was evaluated using the temporal scan statistic and seasonal-trend loess (STL) decomposition methods. Secular trends were evaluated using negative binomial regression modeling. The spatial distribution of disease incidence was examined using maps of empirical Bayes smoothed estimates of disease incidence. Spatial clustering was examined by multiple methods, which included Moran's I and the spatial scan statistic. RESULTS: The peak incidence of Giardia infections occurred in the spring months. Salmonella incidence exhibited two peaks, one small peak in the spring and a main peak in the summer. Campylobacter and Escherichia coli O157 disease incidence peaked in the summer months. Moran's I indicated that there was significant positive spatial autocorrelation for the incidence of Campylobacter, Giardia and Salmonella. The spatial scan statistic identified clusters of high disease incidence in the northern areas of the province for Campylobacter, Giardia and Salmonella infections. The incidence of Escherichia coli infections clustered in the south-east and north-east areas of the province, based on the spatial scan statistic results. Shigella infections had the lowest incidence rate and no discernable spatial or temporal patterns were observed. CONCLUSIONS: By using several different spatial and temporal methods a robust picture of the spatial and temporal distributions of enteric disease in New Brunswick was produced. Disease incidence for several reportable enteric pathogens displayed significant geographic clustering indicating that a spatially distributed risk factor may be contributing to disease incidence. Temporal analysis indicated peaks in disease incidence, including previously un-reported peaks.

Comparison of risk factors for seropositivity to feline immunodeficiency virus and feline leukemia virus among cats: a case-case study.

BACKGROUND: Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and feline leukemia virus (FeLV) are reported to have similar risk factors and similar recommendations apply to manage infected cats. However, some contrasting evidence exists in the literature with regard to commonly reported risk factors. In this study, we investigated whether the known risk factors for FIV and FeLV infections have a stronger effect for either infection. This retrospective study included samples from 696 cats seropositive for FIV and 593 cats seropositive for FeLV from the United States and Canada. Data were collected during two cross sectional studies, where cats were tested using IDEXX FIV/FeLV ELISA kits. To compare the effect of known risk factors for FIV infection compared to FeLV, using a case-case study design, random intercept logistic regression models were fit including cats' age, sex, neuter status, outdoor exposure, health status and type of testing facility as independent variables. A random intercept for testing facility was included to account for clustering expected in testing practices at the individual clinics and shelters. RESULTS: In the multivariable random intercept model, the odds of FIV compared to FeLV positive ELISA results were greater for adults (OR = 2.09, CI: 1.50-2.92), intact males (OR = 3.14, CI: 1.85-3.76), neutered males (OR = 2.68, CI: 1.44- 3.14), cats with outdoor access (OR = 2.58, CI: 1.85-3.76) and lower for cats with clinical illness (OR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.52-0.90). The variance components obtained from the model indicated clustering at the testing facility level. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors that have a greater effect on FIV seropositivity include adulthood, being male (neutered or not) and having access to outdoors, while clinical illness was a stronger predictor for FeLV seropositivity. Further studies are warranted to assess the implications of these results for the management and control of these infections.

Heat stress related dairy cow mortality during heat waves and control periods in rural Southern Ontario from 2010-2012.

BACKGROUND: Heat stress is a physiological response to extreme environmental heat such as heat waves. Heat stress can result in mortality in dairy cows when extreme heat is both rapidly changing and has a long duration. As a result of climate change, heat waves, which are defined as 3 days of temperatures of 32 °C or above, are an increasingly frequent extreme weather phenomenon in Southern Ontario. Heat waves are increasing the risk for on-farm dairy cow mortality in Southern Ontario. Heat stress indices (HSIs) are generally based on temperature and humidity and provide a relative measure of discomfort which can be used to predict increased risk of on-farm dairy cow mortality. In what follows, the heat stress distribution was described over space and presented with maps. Similarly, on-farm mortality was described and mapped. The goal of this study was to demonstrate that heat waves and related HSI increases during 2010-2012 were associated with increased on-farm dairy cow mortality in Southern Ontario. Mortality records and farm locations for all farms registered in the CanWest Dairy Herd Improvement Program in Southern Ontario were retrieved for 3 heat waves and 6 three-day control periods from 2010 to 2012. A random sample of controls (2:1) was taken from the data set to create a risk-based hybrid design. On-farm heat stress was estimated using data from 37 weather stations and subsequently interpolated across Southern Ontario by geostatistical kriging. A Poisson regression model was applied to assess the on-farm mortality in relation to varying levels of the HSI. RESULTS: For every one unit increase in HSI the on-farm mortality rate across Southern Ontario increases by 1.03 times (CI95% (IRR) = (1.025,1.035); p = ≤ 0.001). With a typical 8.6 unit increase in HSI from a control period to a heat wave, mortality rates are predicted to increase by 1.27 times. CONCLUSIONS: Southern Ontario was affected by heat waves, as demonstrated by high levels of heat stress and increased on-farm mortality. Farmers should be aware of these risks, and informed of appropriate methods to mitigate such risks.

Suitability of sentinel abattoirs for syndromic surveillance using provincially inspected bovine abattoir condemnation data.

BACKGROUND: Sentinel surveillance has previously been used to monitor and identify disease outbreaks in both human and animal contexts. Three approaches for the selection of sentinel sites are proposed and evaluated regarding their ability to capture overall respiratory disease trends using provincial abattoir condemnation data from all abattoirs open throughout the study for use in a sentinel syndromic surveillance system. RESULTS: All three sentinel selection criteria approaches resulted in the identification of sentinel abattoirs that captured overall temporal trends in condemnation rates similar to those reported by the full set of abattoirs. However, all selection approaches tended to overestimate the condemnation rates of the full dataset by 1.4 to as high as 3.8 times for cows, heifers and steers. Given the results, the selection approach using abattoirs open all weeks had the closest approximation of temporal trends when compared to the full set of abattoirs. CONCLUSIONS: Sentinel abattoirs show promise for integration into a food animal syndromic surveillance system using Ontario provincial abattoir condemnation data. While all selection approaches tended to overestimate the condemnation rates of the full dataset to some degree, the abattoirs open all weeks selection approach appeared to best capture the overall seasonal and temporal trends of the full dataset and would be the most suitable approach for sentinel abattoir selection.

A spatial analysis of heat stress related emergency room visits in rural Southern Ontario during heat waves.

BACKGROUND: In Southern Ontario, climate change may have given rise to an increasing occurrence of heat waves since the year 2000, which can cause heat stress to the general public, and potentially have detrimental health consequences. Heat waves are defined as three consecutive days with temperatures of 32 °C and above. Heat stress is the level of discomfort. A variety of heat stress indices have been proposed to measure heat stress (e.g., the heat stress index (HSI)), and has been shown to predict increases in morbidity and/or mortality rates in humans and other species. Maps visualizing the distribution of heat stress can provide information about related health risks and insight for control strategies. Information to inform heat wave preparedness models in Ontario was previously only available for major metropolitan areas. METHODS: Hospitals in communities of fewer than 100,000 individuals were recruited for a pilot study by telephone. The number of people visiting the emergency room or 24-hour urgent care service was collected for a total of 27 days, covering three heat waves and six 3-day control periods from 2010-2012. The heat stress index was spatially predicted using data from 37 weather stations across Southern Ontario by geostatistical kriging. Poisson regression modeling was applied to determine the rate of increased number of emergency room visits in rural hospitals with respect to the HSI. RESULTS: During a heat wave, the average rate of emergency room visits was 1.11 times higher than during a control period (IRR = 1.11, CI95% (IRR) = (1.07,1.15), p ≤ 0.001). In a univariable model, HSI was not a significant predictor of emergency room visits, but when accounting for the confounding effect of a spatial trend polynomial in the hospital location coordinates, a one unit increase in HSI predicted an increase in daily emergency rooms visits by 0.4% (IRR = 1.004, CI95%(IRR) = (1.0005,1.007), p = 0.024) across the region. One high-risk cluster and no low risk clusters were identified in the southwestern portion of the study area by the spatial scan statistic during heat waves. The high-risk cluster is located in a region with high levels of heat stress during heat waves. CONCLUSIONS: This finding will aid hospitals and rural public health units in preventing and preparing for emergencies of foreseeable heat waves. Future research is needed to assess the relation between heat stress and individual characteristics and demographics of rural communities in Ontario.

The use of the temporal scan statistic to detect methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus clusters in a community hospital.

BACKGROUND: In healthcare facilities, conventional surveillance techniques using rule-based guidelines may result in under- or over-reporting of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) outbreaks, as these guidelines are generally unvalidated. The objectives of this study were to investigate the utility of the temporal scan statistic for detecting MRSA clusters, validate clusters using molecular techniques and hospital records, and determine significant differences in the rate of MRSA cases using regression models. METHODS: Patients admitted to a community hospital between August 2006 and February 2011, and identified with MRSA>48 hours following hospital admission, were included in this study. Between March 2010 and February 2011, MRSA specimens were obtained for spa typing. MRSA clusters were investigated using a retrospective temporal scan statistic. Tests were conducted on a monthly scale and significant clusters were compared to MRSA outbreaks identified by hospital personnel. Associations between the rate of MRSA cases and the variables year, month, and season were investigated using a negative binomial regression model. RESULTS: During the study period, 735 MRSA cases were identified and 167 MRSA isolates were spa typed. Nine different spa types were identified with spa type 2/t002 (88.6%) the most prevalent. The temporal scan statistic identified significant MRSA clusters at the hospital (n=2), service (n=16), and ward (n=10) levels (P ≤ 0.05). Seven clusters were concordant with nine MRSA outbreaks identified by hospital staff. For the remaining clusters, seven events may have been equivalent to true outbreaks and six clusters demonstrated possible transmission events. The regression analysis indicated years 2009-2011, compared to 2006, and months March and April, compared to January, were associated with an increase in the rate of MRSA cases (P ≤ 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The application of the temporal scan statistic identified several MRSA clusters that were not detected by hospital personnel. The identification of specific years and months with increased MRSA rates may be attributable to several hospital level factors including the presence of other pathogens. Within hospitals, the incorporation of the temporal scan statistic to standard surveillance techniques is a valuable tool for healthcare workers to evaluate surveillance strategies and aid in the identification of MRSA clusters.

Detection of Clostridium difficile infection clusters, using the temporal scan statistic, in a community hospital in southern Ontario, Canada, 2006-2011.

BACKGROUND: In hospitals, Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) surveillance relies on unvalidated guidelines or threshold criteria to identify outbreaks. This can result in false-positive and -negative cluster alarms. The application of statistical methods to identify and understand CDI clusters may be a useful alternative or complement to standard surveillance techniques. The objectives of this study were to investigate the utility of the temporal scan statistic for detecting CDI clusters and determine if there are significant differences in the rate of CDI cases by month, season, and year in a community hospital. METHODS: Bacteriology reports of patients identified with a CDI from August 2006 to February 2011 were collected. For patients detected with CDI from March 2010 to February 2011, stool specimens were obtained. Clostridium difficile isolates were characterized by ribotyping and investigated for the presence of toxin genes by PCR. CDI clusters were investigated using a retrospective temporal scan test statistic. Statistically significant clusters were compared to known CDI outbreaks within the hospital. A negative binomial regression model was used to identify associations between year, season, month and the rate of CDI cases. RESULTS: Overall, 86 CDI cases were identified. Eighteen specimens were analyzed and nine ribotypes were classified with ribotype 027 (n = 6) the most prevalent. The temporal scan statistic identified significant CDI clusters at the hospital (n = 5), service (n = 6), and ward (n = 4) levels (P ≤ 0.05). Three clusters were concordant with the one C. difficile outbreak identified by hospital personnel. Two clusters were identified as potential outbreaks. The negative binomial model indicated years 2007-2010 (P ≤ 0.05) had decreased CDI rates compared to 2006 and spring had an increased CDI rate compared to the fall (P = 0.023). CONCLUSIONS: Application of the temporal scan statistic identified several clusters, including potential outbreaks not detected by hospital personnel. The identification of time periods with decreased or increased CDI rates may have been a result of specific hospital events. Understanding the clustering of CDIs can aid in the interpretation of surveillance data and lead to the development of better early detection systems.

Forecasting seasonal influenza activity in Canada-Comparing seasonal Auto-Regressive integrated moving average and artificial neural network approaches for public health preparedness.

INTRODUCTION: Public health preparedness is based on timely and accurate information. Time series forecasting using disease surveillance data is an important aspect of preparedness. This study compared two approaches of time series forecasting: seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modelling and the artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm. The goal was to model weekly seasonal influenza activity in Canada using SARIMA and compares its predictive accuracy, based on root mean square prediction error (RMSE) and mean absolute prediction error (MAE), to that of an ANN. METHODS: An initial SARIMA model was fit using automated model selection by minimizing the Akaike information criterion (AIC). Further inspection of the autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function led to 'manual' model improvements. ANNs were trained iteratively, using an automated process to minimize the RMSE and MAE. RESULTS: A total of 378, 462 cases of influenza was reported in Canada from the 2010-2011 influenza season to the end of the 2019-2020 influenza season, with an average yearly incidence risk of 20.02 per 100,000 population. Automated SARIMA modelling was the better method in terms of forecasting accuracy (per RMSE and MAE). However, the ANN correctly predicted the peak week of disease incidence while the other models did not. CONCLUSION: Both the ANN and SARIMA models have shown to be capable tools in forecasting seasonal influenza activity in Canada. It was shown that applying both in tandem is beneficial, SARIMA better forecasted overall incidence while ANN correctly predicted the peak week.

The identification and epidemiology of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Clostridium difficile in patient rooms and the ward environment.

BACKGROUND: Research has indicated that the environment may play an important role in the transmission of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Clostridium difficile in healthcare facilities. Despite the significance of this finding, few data exist from longitudinal studies investigating MRSA and C. difficile contamination, concurrently, in both patient rooms and the general ward environment. The objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence of MRSA and C. difficile contamination in patient rooms and the ward environment and identify risk factors associated with a surface being contaminated with these pathogens. METHODS: Environmental surfaces in patient rooms and the general environment in the medical and surgical wards of a community hospital were sampled six times over a 15 week period. Sterile electrostatic cloths were used for sampling and information pertaining to the surface sampled was recorded. MRSA isolates and C. difficile specimens were obtained from hospitalized patients.Enrichment culture was performed and spa typing or ribotyping was conducted for MRSA or C. difficile, respectively. Exact logistic regression models were constructed to examine risk factors associated with MRSA and C. difficile contamination. RESULTS: Sixteen (41%) patient rooms had ≥ 1 surfaces contaminated with MRSA and/or C. difficile. For 218 surfaces investigated, 3.2% and 6.4% were contaminated with MRSA or C. difficile, respectively. Regression models indicated that surfaces in rooms exposed to a C. difficile patient had significantly increased odds of being contaminated with C. difficile, compared to surfaces in unexposed patient rooms. Additionally, compared to plastic surfaces, cork surfaces had significantly increased odds of being contaminated with C. difficile. For 236 samples collected from the ward environment, MRSA and C. difficile were recovered from 2.5% and 5.9% of samples, respectively. Overall, the majority of MRSA and C. difficile strains were molecularly identified as spa type 2/t002 (84.6%, n = 11) and ribotype 078 (50%, n = 14), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In patient rooms and the ward environment, specific materials and locations were identified as being contaminated with MRSA or C. difficile. These sites should be cleaned and disinfected with increased vigilance to help limit the transmission and dissemination of MRSA and C. difficile within the hospital.

Comparison of the geographical distribution of feline immunodeficiency virus and feline leukemia virus infections in the United States of America (2000-2011).

BACKGROUND: Although feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and feline leukemia virus (FeLV) have similar risk factors and control measures, infection rates have been speculated to vary in geographic distribution over North America. Since both infections are endemic in North America, it was assumed as a working hypothesis that their geographic distributions were similar. Hence, the purpose of this exploratory analysis was to investigate the comparative geographical distribution of both viral infections. Counts of FIV (n=17,108) and FeLV (n=30,017) positive serology results (FIV antibody and FeLV ELISA) were obtained for 48 contiguous states and District of Columbia of the United States of America (US) from the IDEXX Laboratories website. The proportional morbidity ratio of FIV to FeLV infection was estimated for each administrative region and its geographic distribution pattern was visualized by a choropleth map. Statistical evidence of an excess in the proportional morbidity ratio from unity was assessed using the spatial scan test under the normal probability model. RESULTS: This study revealed distinct spatial distribution patterns in the proportional morbidity ratio suggesting the presence of one or more relevant and geographically varying risk factors. The disease map indicates that there is a higher prevalence of FIV infections in the southern and eastern US compared to FeLV. In contrast, FeLV infections were observed to be more frequent in the western US compared to FIV. The respective excess in proportional morbidity ratio was significant with respect to the spatial scan test (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The observed variability in the geographical distribution of the proportional morbidity ratio of FIV to FeLV may be related to the presence of an additional or unique, but yet unknown, spatial risk factor. Putative factors may be geographic variations in specific virus strains and rate of vaccination. Knowledge of these factors and the geographical distributions of these infections can inform recommendations for testing, management and prevention. However, further studies are required to investigate the potential association of these factors with FIV and FeLV.

Comparison of covariate adjustment methods using space-time scan statistics for food animal syndromic surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Abattoir condemnation data show promise as a rich source of data for syndromic surveillance of both animal and zoonotic diseases. However, inherent characteristics of abattoir condemnation data can bias results from space-time cluster detection methods for disease surveillance, and may need to be accounted for using various adjustment methods. The objective of this study was to compare the space-time scan statistics with different abilities to control for covariates and to assess their suitability for food animal syndromic surveillance. Four space-time scan statistic models were used including: animal class adjusted Poisson, space-time permutation, multi-level model adjusted Poisson, and a weighted normal scan statistic using model residuals. The scan statistics were applied to monthly bovine pneumonic lung and "parasitic liver" condemnation data from Ontario provincial abattoirs from 2001-2007. RESULTS: The number and space-time characteristics of identified clusters often varied between space-time scan tests for both "parasitic liver" and pneumonic lung condemnation data. While there were some similarities between isolated clusters in space, time and/or space-time, overall the results from space-time scan statistics differed substantially depending on the covariate adjustment approach used. CONCLUSIONS: Variability in results among methods suggests that caution should be used in selecting space-time scan methods for abattoir surveillance. Furthermore, validation of different approaches with simulated or real outbreaks is required before conclusive decisions can be made concerning the best approach for conducting surveillance with these data.

Investigating the distribution of calls to a North American animal poison control call center by veterinarians and the public in space, time, and space-time.

Health assessments via phone call or tele-triage have become very popular. Tele-triage in the veterinary field and North American context is available since the early 2000s. However, there is little knowledge of how caller type influences the distribution of calls. The objectives of this study were to examine the distribution of calls to the Animal Poison Control Center (APCC) by caller type in space, time, and space-time. Data regarding caller location were obtained from the APCC by American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (ASPCA). The data were analysed using the spatial scan statistic to identify clusters of higher-than-expected proportion of veterinarian or public calls in space, time, and space-time. Statistically significant spatial clusters of increased call frequencies by veterinarians were identified in some western, midwestern, and southwestern states for each year of the study period. Furthermore, annual clusters of increased call frequencies by the general public were identified from some northeastern states. Based on yearly scans, we identified statistically significant temporal clusters of higher-than-expected public calls during Christmas/winter holidays. During space-time scans of the entire study period, we identified a statistically significant cluster of higher-than-expected proportion of veterinarian calls at the beginning of the study period in the western, central, and southeastern states followed by a significant cluster of excess public calls near the end of the study period on the northeast. Our results suggest that user patterns of the APCC vary by region and both season and calendar time.

Comparing the diagnostic performance of ordinary, mixed, and lasso logistic regression models at identifying opioid and cannabinoid poisoning in U.S. dogs using pet demographic and clinical data reported to an animal poison control center (2005-2014).

Researchers have begun studying the impact of human opioid and cannabinoid use on dog populations. These studies have used data from an animal poison control center (APCC) and there are concerns that due to the illicit nature and social stigma concerning the use of these drugs, owners may not always be forthcoming with veterinarians or APCC staff regarding pet exposures to these toxicants. As a result, models derived from APCC data that examine the predictability of opioid and cannabinoid dog poisonings using pet demographic and health disorder information may help veterinarians or APCC staff more reliably identify these toxicants when examining or responding to a call concerning a dog poisoned by an unknown toxicant. The fitting of epidemiologically informed statistical models has been useful for identifying factors associated with various health conditions and as predictive tools. However, machine learning, including lasso regression, has many useful features as predictive tools, including the ability to incorporate large numbers of independent variables. Consequently, the objectives of our study were: 1) identify pet demographic and health disorders associated with opioid and cannabinoid dog poisonings using ordinary and mixed logistic regression models; and 2) compare the predictive performance of these models to analogous lasso logistic regression models. Data were obtained from reports of dog poisoning events collected by the American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals' (ASPCA) Animal Poisoning Control Center, from 2005-2014. We used ordinary and mixed logistic regression models as well as lasso logistic regression models with and without controlling for autocorrelation at the state level to train our models on half the dataset and test their predictive performance on the remainder. Although epidemiologically informed logistic regression models may require substantial knowledge of the disease systems being investigated, they had the same predictive abilities as lasso logistic regression models. All models had relatively high predictive parameters except for positive predictive values, due to the rare nature of calls concerning opioid and cannabinoid poisonings. Ordinary and mixed logistic regression models were also substantially more parsimonious than their lasso equivalents while still allowing for the epidemiological interpretation of model coefficients. Controlling for autocorrelation had little effect on the predictive performance of all models, but it did reduce the number of variables included in lasso models. Several disorder variables were associated with opioid and cannabinoid calls that were consistent with the acute effects of these toxicants. These models may help build diagnostic evidence concerning dog exposure to opioids and cannabinoids, saving time and resources when investigating these cases.

Investigating the association between socioeconomic and agricultural risk factors and the incidence of Salmonella Heidelberg and Salmonella Typhimurium in Ontario in 2015: A multi-level ecological approach.

The incidence of salmonellosis, and other enteric zoonotic diseases, has been associated with various food and environmental exposures and socioeconomic factors. Increasingly, there is interest in exploring differences among serotypes of Salmonella to better inform public health prevention efforts. Consequently, we investigated whether rates of Salmonella Heidelberg and Typhimurium in Ontario communities in 2015 were influenced by household characteristics, agricultural factors, and the presence of meat plants. Data for each reported case of S. Heidelberg and S. Typhimurium in Ontario in 2015 were collected. Expected cases of each serotype were calculated, stratified by age group and sex, according to the underlying population distribution from the Canadian census. Socioeconomic, agricultural census data, and data concerning provincial and federally inspected meat plants were combined with observed and expected case counts. The association between community-level agricultural, meat processing, and socioeconomic variables, serotype, and the rate of salmonellosis in each census subdivision (CSD) was explored using multilevel Poisson models, with random intercepts for CSD and census division (CD). Rates of S. Heidelberg and S. Typhimurium were associated with the proportion of married individuals in a CSD, and were higher in CSDs with the highest quantile of labour participation compared to those in the lowest quantile. There was an interaction effect between cattle, poultry and swine farm density in a CD and serotype, with rates of either serotype decreasing as cattle, poultry, or swine farm density in the encompassing CD increased. The rate of the decrease varied by serotype. Our findings concerning community-level household characteristics may be explained by the influence of family structure and occupation on food consumption patterns and environmental exposures. Rates of S. Heidelberg and S. Typhimurium may be lower in areas with increased animal farm density due to naturally acquired immunity from routine exposure to Salmonella via livestock.