HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance in newly diagnosed individuals in Italy over the period 2015-21.

BACKGROUND: Transmitted drug resistance (TDR) is still a critical aspect for the management of individuals living with HIV-1. Thus, its evaluation is crucial to optimize HIV care. METHODS: Overall, 2386 HIV-1 protease/reverse transcriptase and 1831 integrase sequences from drug-naïve individuals diagnosed in north and central Italy between 2015 and 2021 were analysed. TDR was evaluated over time. Phylogeny was generated by maximum likelihood. Factors associated with TDR were evaluated by logistic regression. RESULTS: Individuals were mainly male (79.1%) and Italian (56.2%), with a median (IQR) age of 38 (30-48). Non-B infected individuals accounted for 44.6% (N = 1065) of the overall population and increased over time (2015-2021, from 42.1% to 51.0%, P = 0.002). TDR prevalence to any class was 8.0% (B subtype 9.5% versus non-B subtypes 6.1%, P = 0.002) and remained almost constant over time. Overall, 300 transmission clusters (TCs) involving 1155 (48.4%) individuals were identified, with a similar proportion in B and non-infected individuals (49.7% versus 46.8%, P = 0.148). A similar prevalence of TDR among individuals in TCs and those out of TCs was found (8.2% versus 7.8%, P = 0.707).By multivariable analysis, subtypes A, F, and CFR02_AG were negatively associated with TDR. No other factors, including being part of TCs, were significantly associated with TDR. CONCLUSIONS: Between 2015 and 2021, TDR prevalence in Italy was 8% and remained almost stable over time. Resistant strains were found circulating regardless of being in TCs, but less likely in non-B subtypes. These results highlight the importance of a continuous surveillance of newly diagnosed individuals for evidence of TDR to inform clinical practice.

Development and validation of a prediction score for failure to casirivimab/imdevimab in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

Introduction: Casirivimab and imdevimab (CAS/IMV) are two non-competing, high-affinity human IgG1 anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies, that showed a survival benefit in seronegative hospitalized patients with COVID-19. This study aimed to estimate the day-28 risk of mechanical ventilation (MV) and death in individuals hospitalized for severe COVID-19 pneumonia and receiving CAS/IMV. Additionally, it aimed to identify variables measured at the time of hospital admission that could predict these outcomes and derive a prediction algorithm. Methods: This is a retrospective, observational cohort study conducted in 12 hospitals in Italy. Adult patients who were consecutively hospitalized from November 2021 to February 2022 receiving CAS/IMV were included. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify predictors of MV or death by day 28 from treatment initiation, and ß-coefficients from the model were used to develop a risk score that was derived by means of leave-one-out internal cross-validation (CV), external CV, and calibration. Secondary outcome was mortality. Results: A total of 480 hospitalized patients in the training set and 157 patients in the test set were included. By day 28, 36 participants (8%) underwent MV and 28 died (6%) for a total of 58 participants (12%) experiencing the composite primary endpoint. In multivariable analysis, four factors [age, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and platelets] were independently associated with the risk of MV/death and were used to generate the proposed risk score. The accuracy of the score in the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.80 and 0.77 in internal validation and test for the composite endpoint and 0.87 and 0.86 for death, respectively. The model also appeared to be well calibrated with the raw data. Conclusion: The mortality risk reported in our study was lower than that previously reported. Although CAS/IMV is no longer used, our score might help in identifying which patients are not likely to benefit from monoclonal antibodies and may require alternative interventions.