The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on 397 631 elective dental admissions among the under-25s in England: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 caused widespread disruptions to health services worldwide, including reductions in elective surgery. Tooth extractions are among the most common reasons for elective surgery among children and young people (CYP). It is unclear how COVID-19 affected elective dental surgeries in hospitals over multiple pandemic waves at a national level. METHODS: Elective dental tooth extraction admissions were selected using Hospital Episode Statistics. Admission trends for the first 14 pandemic months were compared with the previous five years and results were stratified by age (under-11s, 11-16s, 17-24s). RESULTS: The most socioeconomically deprived CYP comprised the largest proportion of elective dental tooth extraction admissions. In April 2020, admissions dropped by >95%. In absolute terms, the biggest reduction was in April (11-16s: -1339 admissions, 95% CI -1411 to -1267; 17-24s: -1600, -1678 to -1521) and May 2020 (under-11s: -2857, -2962 to -2752). Admissions differed by socioeconomic deprivation for the under-11s (P < 0.0001), driven by fewer admissions than expected by the most deprived and more by the most affluent during the pandemic. CONCLUSION: Elective tooth extractions dropped most in April 2020, remaining below pre-pandemic levels throughout the study. Despite being the most likely to be admitted, the most deprived under-11s had the largest reductions in admissions relative to other groups.

Twenty-year trajectories of cardio-metabolic factors among people with type 2 diabetes by dementia status in England: a retrospective cohort study.

To assess 20-year retrospective trajectories of cardio-metabolic factors preceding dementia diagnosis among people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We identified 227,145 people with T2D aged > 42 years between 1999 and 2018. Annual mean levels of eight routinely measured cardio-metabolic factors were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Multivariable multilevel piecewise and non-piecewise growth curve models assessed retrospective trajectories of cardio-metabolic factors by dementia status from up to 19 years preceding dementia diagnosis (dementia) or last contact with healthcare (no dementia). 23,546 patients developed dementia; mean (SD) follow-up was 10.0 (5.8) years. In the dementia group, mean systolic blood pressure increased 16-19 years before dementia diagnosis compared with patients without dementia, but declined more steeply from 16 years before diagnosis, while diastolic blood pressure generally declined at similar rates. Mean body mass index followed a steeper non-linear decline from 11 years before diagnosis in the dementia group. Mean blood lipid levels (total cholesterol, LDL, HDL) and glycaemic measures (fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c) were generally higher in the dementia group compared with those without dementia and followed similar patterns of change. However, absolute group differences were small. Differences in levels of cardio-metabolic factors were observed up to two decades prior to dementia diagnosis. Our findings suggest that a long follow-up is crucial to minimise reverse causation arising from changes in cardio-metabolic factors during preclinical dementia. Future investigations which address associations between cardiometabolic factors and dementia should account for potential non-linear relationships and consider the timeframe when measurements are taken.

Multistate transition modelling of e-cigarette use and cigarette smoking among youth in the UK.

INTRODUCTION: E-cigarette use remains a controversial topic, with questions over how people transition between e-cigarette use and cigarette smoking. This paper examined transitions into and out of nicotine product use in a representative sample of UK youth. METHODS: We used Markov multistate transition probability models on data from 10 229 participants (10-25 years old) in the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2015-2021). We used four product use states ('never', 'non-current use', 'e-cigarette only' and 'smoking and dual use') and estimated likelihood of transitions according to sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: Among participants who had never used nicotine products, most were still non-users a year later (92.9% probability; 95% CI 92.6%, 93.2%); a small proportion transitioned to using e-cigarettes only (4.0%; 95% CI 3.7%, 4.2%) and cigarettes (2.2%; 95% CI 2.0%, 2.4%). Those aged 14-17 years were the most likely to start using a nicotine product. E-cigarette use was less persistent overtime than cigarette smoking, with a 59.1% probability (95% CI 56.9%, 61.0%) of e-cigarette users still using after 1 year compared with 73.8% (95% CI 72.1%, 75.4%) for cigarette smoking. However, there was a 14% probability (95% CI 12.8%, 16.2%) that e-cigarette users went onto smoke cigarettes after 1 year, rising to 25% (95% CI 23%, 27%) after 3 years. CONCLUSION: This study found that although overall nicotine product use was relatively rare, participants were more likely to experiment with e-cigarette use than cigarette smoking. This was mostly not persistent over time; however, approximately one in seven transitioned to cigarette smoking. Regulators should aim to deter all nicotine product use among children.

Stoma Formation in Crohn's Disease and the Likelihood of Antidepressant Use: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The impact of a temporary or permanent stoma on mental health in Crohn's Disease (CD) is unknown. The aim was to examine the association between intestinal surgery and stoma formation and subsequent antidepressant medication (ADM) use. METHODS: Using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we identified individuals with CD who underwent intestinal surgery between 1998-2018. We excluded individuals with a prescription for an ADM in the 6 months before surgery. Individuals were stratified into three groups: no stoma, temporary stoma, and permanent stoma. We used Kaplan-Meier curves to examine initiation of ADM after intestinal surgery and Cox regression to identify risk factors for ADM use after intestinal surgery. RESULTS: We identified 1,272 cases of CD undergoing their first intestinal surgery. Of these, 871 (68.5%) had no stoma, 191 (15.0%) had a temporary stoma and 210 (16.5%) had a permanent stoma. The 10-year cumulative incidence of ADM use was 26.4%, 33.4% and 37.3% respectively. Individuals with a permanent stoma were 71% more likely to receive an ADM than those with no stoma (HR 1.71, 95% CI 1.20-2.44). Individuals with a temporary stoma reversed within 12 months had a similar likelihood of ADM use to those without stoma formation (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.64-1.53) whereas temporary stoma formation with late reversal after 12 months was associated with significantly greater likelihood of ADM use (HR 1.85, 95% CI 1.15-2.96). CONCLUSIONS: Permanent stomas and temporary stomas with late reversal surgery are associated with increased ADM use after intestinal surgery, likely associated with increased anxiety and depression.

Depression in individuals who subsequently develop inflammatory bowel disease: a population-based nested case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: Depression is a potential risk factor for developing IBD. This association may be related to GI symptoms occurring before diagnosis. We aimed to determine whether depression, adjusted for pre-existing GI symptoms, is associated with subsequent IBD. DESIGN: We conducted a nested case-control study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink identifying incident cases of UC and Crohn's disease (CD) from 1998 to 2016. Controls without IBD were matched for age and sex. We measured exposure to prevalent depression 4.5-5.5 years before IBD diagnosis. We created two sub-groups with prevalent depression based on whether individuals had reported GI symptoms before the onset of depression. We used conditional logistic regression to derive ORs for the risk of IBD depending on depression status. RESULTS: We identified 10 829 UC cases, 4531 CD cases and 15 360 controls. There was an excess of prevalent depression 5 years before IBD diagnosis relative to controls (UC: 3.7% vs 2.7%, CD 3.7% vs 2.9%). Individuals with GI symptoms prior to the diagnosis of depression had increased adjusted risks of developing UC and CD compared with those without depression (UC: OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.79; CD: OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.92). Individuals with depression alone had similar risks of UC and CD to those without depression (UC: OR 1.13, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.29; CD: OR 1.12, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.38). CONCLUSIONS: Depression, in the absence of prior GI symptoms, is not associated with subsequent development of IBD. However, depression with GI symptoms should prompt investigation for IBD.

Relationship between heart failure and the risk of acute exacerbation of COPD.

RATIONALE: Heart failure (HF) management in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is often delayed or suboptimal. OBJECTIVES: To examine the effect of HF and HF medication use on moderate-to-severe COPD exacerbations. METHODS AND MEASUREMENTS: Retrospective cohort studies from 2006 to 2016 using nationally representative English primary care electronic healthcare records linked to national hospital and mortality data. Patients with COPD with diagnosed and possible HF were identified. Possible HF was defined as continuous loop diuretic use in the absence of a non-cardiac indication. Incident exposure to HF medications was defined as ≥2 prescriptions within 90 days with no gaps >90 days during ≤6 months of continuous use; prevalent exposure as 6+ months of continuous use. HF medications investigated were angiotensin receptor blockers, ACE inhibitors, beta-blockers, loop diuretics and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists. Cox regression, stratified by sex and age, further adjusted for patient characteristics, was used to determine the association of HF with exacerbation risk. MAIN RESULTS: 86 795 patients with COPD were categorised as no evidence of HF (n=60 047), possible HF (n=8476) and newly diagnosed HF (n=2066). Newly diagnosed HF (adjusted HR (aHR): 1.45, 95% CI: 1.30 to 1.62) and possible HF (aHR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.58 to 1.72) similarly increased exacerbation risk. Incident and prevalent use of all HF medications were associated with increased exacerbation risk. Prevalent use was associated with reduced exacerbation risk compared with incident use. CONCLUSIONS: Earlier opportunities to improve the diagnosis and management of HF in the COPD population are missed. Managing HF may reduce exacerbation risk in the long term.

The J-IDEA Pandemic Planner: A Framework for Implementing Hospital Provision Interventions During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Planning for extreme surges in demand for hospital care of patients requiring urgent life-saving treatment for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), while retaining capacity for other emergency conditions, is one of the most challenging tasks faced by health care providers and policymakers during the pandemic. Health systems must be well-prepared to cope with large and sudden changes in demand by implementing interventions to ensure adequate access to care. We developed the first planning tool for the COVID-19 pandemic to account for how hospital provision interventions (such as cancelling elective surgery, setting up field hospitals, or hiring retired staff) will affect the capacity of hospitals to provide life-saving care. METHODS: We conducted a review of interventions implemented or considered in 12 European countries in March to April 2020, an evaluation of their impact on capacity, and a review of key parameters in the care of COVID-19 patients. This information was used to develop a planner capable of estimating the impact of specific interventions on doctors, nurses, beds, and respiratory support equipment. We applied this to a scenario-based case study of 1 intervention, the set-up of field hospitals in England, under varying levels of COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: The Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics pandemic planner is a hospital planning tool that allows hospital administrators, policymakers, and other decision-makers to calculate the amount of capacity in terms of beds, staff, and crucial medical equipment obtained by implementing the interventions. Flexible assumptions on baseline capacity, the number of hospitalizations, staff-to-beds ratios, and staff absences due to COVID-19 make the planner adaptable to multiple settings. The results of the case study show that while field hospitals alleviate the burden on the number of beds available, this intervention is futile unless the deficit of critical care nurses is addressed first. DISCUSSION: The tool supports decision-makers in delivering a fast and effective response to the pandemic. The unique contribution of the planner is that it allows users to compare the impact of interventions that change some or all inputs.

A Protocol is not Enough: Enhanced Recovery Program-Based Care and Clinician Adherence Associated with Shorter Stay After Colorectal Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Randomised trials have shown an Enhanced Recovery Program (ERP) can shorten stay after colorectal surgery. Previous research has focused on patient compliance neglecting the role of care providers. National data on implementation and adherence to standardised care are lacking. We examined care organisation and delivery including the ERP, and correlated this with clinical outcomes. METHODS: A cross-sectional questionnaire was administered to surgeons and nurses in August-October 2015. All English National Health Service Trusts providing elective colorectal surgery were invited. Responses frequencies and variation were examined. Exploratory factor analysis was performed to identify underlying features of care. Standardised factor scores were correlated with elective clinical outcomes of length of stay, mortality and readmission rates from 2013-15. RESULTS: 218/600 (36.3%) postal responses were received from 84/90 (93.3%) Trusts that agreed to participate. Combined with email responses, 301 surveys were analysed. 281/301 (93.4%) agreed or strongly agreed that they had a standardised, ERP-based care protocol. However, 182/301 (60.5%) indicated all consultants managed post-operative oral intake similarly. After factor analysis, higher hospital average ERP-based care standardisation and clinician adherence score were significantly correlated with reduced length of stay, as well as higher ratings of teamwork and support for complication management. CONCLUSIONS: Standardised, ERP-based care was near universal, but clinician adherence varied markedly. Units reporting higher levels of clinician adherence achieved the lowest length of stay. Having a protocol is not enough. Careful implementation and adherence by all of the team is vital to achieve the best results.

Timing of Readmissions After Elective Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty: Does a 30-Day All-Cause Rate Capture Surgically Relevant Readmissions?

BACKGROUND: The 30-day all-cause readmission rate is a widely used metric of hospital performance. However, there is lack of clarity as to whether 30 days is an appropriate time frame following surgical procedures. Our aim is to determine whether a 90-day time window is superior to a 30-day time window in capturing surgically relevant readmissions after total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). METHODS: We analyzed readmissions following all primary THAs and TKAs recorded in the English National Health Service Hospital Episode Statistics database from 2008 to 2018. We compared temporal patterns of 30- and 90-day readmission rates for the following types of readmission: all-cause, surgical, return to theater, and those related to specific surgical complications. RESULTS: A total of 1.47 million procedures were recorded. After THA and TKA, over three-quarters of 90-day surgical readmissions took place within the first 30 days (78.5% and 75.7%, respectively). All-cause and surgical readmissions both peaked at day 4 and followed a similar temporal course thereafter. The ratio of surgical to medical readmissions was greater for THA than for TKA, with THA dislocation both being one of the most common surgical complications and clustering early after discharge, with 73.5% of 90-day dislocations occurring within the first 30 days. CONCLUSION: The 30-day all-cause readmission rate is a good reflection of surgically relevant readmissions that take place in the first 90 days after THA and TKA.

Characteristics of frequent paediatric users of emergency departments in England: an observational study using routine national data.

BACKGROUND: Frequent attendances of the same users in emergency departments (ED) can intensify workload pressures and are common among children, yet little is known about the characteristics of paediatric frequent users in EDs. AIM: To describe the volume of frequent paediatric attendance in England and the demographics of frequent paediatric ED users in English hospitals. METHOD: We analysed the Hospital Episode Statistics dataset for April 2014-March 2017. The study included 2 308 816 children under 16 years old who attended an ED at least once. Children who attended four times or more in 2015/2016 were classified as frequent users. The preceding and subsequent years were used to capture attendances bordering with the current year. We used a mixed effects logistic regression with a random intercept to predict the odds of being a frequent user in children from different sociodemographic groups. RESULTS: One in 11 children (9.1%) who attended an ED attended four times or more in a year. Infants had a greater likelihood of being a frequent attender (OR 3.24, 95% CI 3.19 to 3.30 vs 5 to 9 years old). Children from more deprived areas had a greater likelihood of being a frequent attender (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.54 to 1.59 vs least deprived). Boys had a slightly greater likelihood than girls (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.06). Children of Asian and mixed ethnic groups were more likely to be frequent users than those from white ethnic groups, while children from black and 'other' had a lower likelihood (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.05; OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.06; OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.86 to 0.90; OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.92, respectively). CONCLUSION: One in 11 children was a frequent attender. Interventions for reducing paediatric frequent attendance need to target infants and families living in deprived areas.

Impact of a pay-for-performance scheme for long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) advice on contraceptive uptake and abortion in British primary care: An interrupted time series study.

BACKGROUND: Long-acting reversible contraception (LARC) is among the most effective contraceptive methods, but uptake remains low even in high-income settings. In 2009/2010, a target-based pay-for-performance (P4P) scheme in Britain was introduced for primary care physicians (PCPs) to offer advice about LARC methods to a specified proportion of women attending for contraceptive care to improve contraceptive choice. We examined the impact and equity of this scheme on LARC uptake and abortions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We examined records of 3,281,667 women aged 13 to 54 years registered with a primary care clinic in Britain (England, Wales, and Scotland) using Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) from 2004/2005 to 2013/2014. We used interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to examine trends in annual LARC and non-LARC hormonal contraception (NLHC) uptake and abortion rates, stratified by age and deprivation groups, before and after the P4P was introduced in 2009/2010. Between 2004/2005 and 2013/2014, crude LARC uptake rates increased by 32.0% from 29.6 per 1,000 women to 39.0 per 1,000 women, compared with 18.0% decrease in NLHC uptake. LARC uptake among women of all ages increased immediately after the P4P with step change of 5.36 per 1,000 women (all values are per 1,000 women unless stated, 95% CI 5.26-5.45, p < 0.001). Women aged 20 to 24 years had the largest step change (8.40, 8.34-8.47, p < 0.001) and sustained trend increase (3.14, 3.08-3.19, p < 0.001) compared with other age groups. NLHC uptake fell in all women with a step change of -22.8 (-24.5 to -21.2, p < 0.001), largely due to fall in combined hormonal contraception (CHC; -15.0, -15.5 to -14.5, p < 0.001). Abortion rates in all women fell immediately after the P4P with a step change of -2.28 (-2.98 to -1.57, p = 0.002) and sustained decrease in trend of -0.88 (-1.12 to -0.63, p < 0.001). The largest falls occurred in women aged 13 to 19 years (step change -5.04, -7.56 to -2.51, p = 0.011), women aged 20 to 24 years (step change -4.52, -7.48 to -1.57, p = 0.030), and women from the most deprived group (step change -4.40, -6.89 to -1.91, p = 0.018). We estimate that by 2013/2014, the P4P scheme resulted in an additional 4.53 LARC prescriptions per 1,000 women (relative increase of 13.4%) more than would have been expected without the scheme. There was a concurrent absolute reduction of -5.31 abortions per 1,000 women, or -38.3% relative reduction. Despite universal coverage of healthcare, some women might have obtained contraception elsewhere or had abortion procedure that was not recorded on CPRD. Other policies aiming to increase LARC use or reduce unplanned pregnancies around the same time could also explain the findings. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that LARC uptake increased and abortions fell in the period after the P4P scheme in British primary care, with additional impact for young women aged 20-24 years and those from deprived backgrounds.

Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: To calculate hospital surge capacity, achieved via hospital provision interventions implemented for the emergency treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other patients through March to May 2020; to evaluate the conditions for admitting patients for elective surgery under varying admission levels of COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We analysed National Health Service (NHS) datasets and literature reviews to estimate hospital care capacity before the pandemic (pre-pandemic baseline) and to quantify the impact of interventions (cancellation of elective surgery, field hospitals, use of private hospitals, deployment of former medical staff and deployment of newly qualified medical staff) for treatment of adult COVID-19 patients, focusing on general and acute (G&A) and critical care (CC) beds, staff and ventilators. RESULTS: NHS England would not have had sufficient capacity to treat all COVID-19 and other patients in March and April 2020 without the hospital provision interventions, which alleviated significant shortfalls in CC nurses, CC and G&A beds and CC junior doctors. All elective surgery can be conducted at normal pre-pandemic levels provided the other interventions are sustained, but only if the daily number of COVID-19 patients occupying CC beds is not greater than 1550 in the whole of England. If the other interventions are not maintained, then elective surgery can only be conducted if the number of COVID-19 patients occupying CC beds is not greater than 320. However, there is greater national capacity to treat G&A patients: without interventions, it takes almost 10,000 G&A COVID-19 patients before any G&A elective patients would be unable to be accommodated. CONCLUSIONS: Unless COVID-19 hospitalisations drop to low levels, there is a continued need to enhance critical care capacity in England with field hospitals, use of private hospitals or deployment of former and newly qualified medical staff to allow some or all elective surgery to take place.

Hospitalisation and mortality in patients with comorbid COPD and heart failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Discrepancy exists amongst studies investigating the effect of comorbid heart failure (HF) on the morbidity and mortality of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. METHODS: MEDLINE and Embase were searched using a pre-specified search strategy for studies comparing hospitalisation, rehospitalisation, and mortality of COPD patients with and without HF. Studies must have reported crude and/or adjusted rate ratios, risk ratios, odds ratios (OR), or hazard ratios (HR). RESULTS: Twenty-eight publications, reporting 55 effect estimates, were identified that compared COPD patients with HF with those without HF. One study reported on all-cause hospitalisation (1 rate ratio). Two studies reported on COPD-related hospitalisation (1 rate ratio, 2 OR). One study reported on COPD- or cardiovascular-related hospitalisation (4 HR). One study reported on 90-day all-cause rehospitalisation (1 risk ratio). One study reported on 3-year all-cause rehospitalisation (2 HR). Four studies reported on 30-day COPD-related rehospitalisation (1 risk ratio; 5 OR). Two studies reported on 1-year COPD-related rehospitalisation (1 risk ratio; 1 HR). One study reported on 3-year COPD-related rehospitalisation (2 HR). Eighteen studies reported on all-cause mortality (1 risk ratio; 4 OR; 24 HR). Five studies reported on all-cause inpatient mortality (1 risk ratio; 4 OR). Meta-analyses of hospitalisation and rehospitalisation were not possible due to insufficient data for all individual effect measures. Meta-analysis of studies requiring spirometry for the diagnosis of COPD found that risk of all-cause mortality was 1.61 (pooled HR; 95%CI: 1.38, 1.83) higher in patients with HF than in those without HF. CONCLUSIONS: In this systematic review, we investigated the effect of HF comorbidity on hospitalisation and mortality of COPD patients. There is substantial evidence that HF comorbidity increases COPD-related rehospitalisation and all-cause mortality of COPD patients. The effect of HF comorbidity may differ depending on COPD phenotype, HF type, or HF severity and should be the topic of future research.

Venous thromboembolism rates after hip and knee arthroplasty and hip fractures.

BACKGROUND: The ideal thromboprophylaxis regime following lower limb arthroplasty and proximal femur fractures remains controversial. Guidelines disagree on the type of chemical prophylaxis, its dose or duration. This article describes a method of monitoring venous thromboembolism (VTE) rates following Total Hip (THA), Total Knee Arthroplasty (TKA) and surgery for hip fractures (NOF#). METHODS: Over 3 years, all patients investigated for VTE were analysed using Picture Archiving Communications System (PACS). All positive scans were then cross-referenced using PACS and local registry data to see if they had undergone THA, TKA or NOF# in the preceding 90 days. Mortality data were obtained from the national administrative database, Hospital Episode Statistics. RESULTS: Five thousand seven hundred eighty-eight patients underwent investigation for VTE and there were 29 diagnoses of PE and 24 of DVT. There was a 0.77% rate of symptomatic DVT after THA, 0.05% after TKA and 0.55% after NOF #. The rate of confirmed symptomatic PE for THA was 0.46, 0.27% for TKA and 0.96% for NOF #. Mortality at one-year post-THA was 0.6, 0.6% for TKA and 25.9% after NOF#. All patients contacted either remained within the catchment area for the minimum 90 postoperative days or died within the catchment area. CONCLUSIONS: The 90 day post-operative prevalence of symptomatic VTE of 1.2, 0.3 and 1.5% in THA, TKA and NOF # respectively are similar to other studies using symptomatic and imaging positive VTE as their endpoint. The study uses a method of collecting data which can be utilised in centres where PACS is available.

How an electronic health record became a real-world research resource: comparison between London's Whole Systems Integrated Care database and the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND: In the UK, several initiatives have resulted in the creation of local data warehouses of electronic patient records. Originally developed for commissioning and direct patient care, they are potentially useful for research, but little is known about them outside their home area. We describe one such local warehouse, the Whole Systems Integrated Care (WSIC) database in NW London, and its potential for research as the "Discover" platform. We compare Discover with the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a popular UK research database also based on linked primary care records. METHODS: We describe the key features of the Discover database, including scope, architecture and governance; descriptive analyses compare the population demographics and chronic disease prevalences with those in CPRD. RESULTS: As of June 2019, Discover held records for a total of 2.3 million currently registered patients, or 95% of the NW London population; CPRD held records for over 11 million. The Discover population matches the overall age-sex distribution of the UK and CPRD but is more ethnically diverse. Most Discover chronic disease prevalences were comparable to the national rates. Unlike CPRD, Discover has identifiable care organisations and postcodes, allowing mapping and linkage to healthcare provider variables such as staffing, and includes contacts with social, community and mental health care. Discover also includes a consent-to-contact register of over 3000 volunteers to date for prospective studies. CONCLUSIONS: Like CPRD, Discover has been a number of years in the making, is a valuable research tool, and can serve as a model for other areas developing similar data warehouses.

Frequent attendances at emergency departments in England.

BACKGROUND: A small proportion of patients referred to as 'frequent attenders' account for a large proportion of hospital activity such as ED attendances and admissions. There is a lack of recent, national estimates of the volume of frequent ED attenders. We aimed to estimate the volume and age distribution of frequent ED attenders in English hospitals. METHOD: We included all attendances at all major EDs across England in the financial year 2016-2017. Patients who attended three times or more were classified as frequent attenders. We used a logistic regression model to predict the odds of being a frequent attender by age group. RESULTS: 14 829 519 attendances were made by 10 062 847 patients who attended at least once. 73.5% of ED attenders attended once and accounted for 49.8% of the total ED attendances. 9.5% of ED attenders attended three times or more; they accounted for 27.1% of the ED attendances. While only 1.2% attended six times or more, their contribution was 7.6% of the total attendances. Infants and adults aged over 80 years were significantly more likely to be frequent attenders than adults aged 30-59 years (OR=2.11, 95% CI 2.09 to 2.13, OR=2.22, 95% CI 2.20 to 2.23, respectively). The likelihood of hospital admission rose steeply with the number of attendances a patient had. CONCLUSION: One in 10 patients attending the ED are frequent attenders and account for over a quarter of attendances. Emergency care systems should consider better ways of reorganising health services to meet the needs of patients who attend EDs frequently.

Should Emergency Department Attendances be Used With or Instead of Readmission Rates as a Performance Metric?: Comparison of Statistical Properties Using National Data.

BACKGROUND: Hospital readmissions are common and are viewed as unfavorable. They are commonly used as a measure of quality of care and, in the United States and England, are associated with financial penalties. Readmissions are not the only possible return-to-acute-care metric; patients may also attend emergency departments (EDs). OBJECTIVE: To assess hospital-level return-to-acute-care metrics using statistical criteria. RESEARCH DESIGN: Patient readmissions and/or ED attendances were aggregated to produce risk-standardized hospital rates. Return-to-acute-care rates at 7, 30, 90, and 365 days were assessed using key statistical properties: (i) variability between hospitals; (ii) the relative contribution of patient and nonpatient factors to variation; and (iii) the statistical power to detect performance differences. SUBJECTS: We had pseudonymized administrative data on all inpatient hospital admissions and ED attendances in National Health Service hospitals in England between April 2009 and March 2011. Patients with an inpatient stay for chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder or heart failure were eligible for inclusion. MEASURES: ED attendances and readmissions for patients discharged from an inpatient stay for chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder or heart failure. RESULTS: Interhospital variation was greatest for ED attendance; in addition, readmission was more strongly determined by patient characteristics than was ED attendance or both combined. Because of smaller numbers, the statistical power to detect differences in rates at 7 days for any indicator was limited. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the current emphasis on readmissions, we found that ED attendance within 30 days has more desirable statistical properties and therefore the potential to be a useful metric when comparing hospitals.

Regional variations in trajectories of long-term readmission rates among patients in England with heart failure.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to compare the characteristics and types of heart failure (HF) patients termed "high-impact users", with high long-term readmission rates, in different regions in England. This will allow clinical factors to be identified in areas with potentially poor quality of care. METHODS: Patients with a primary diagnosis of heart failure (HF) in the period 2008-2009 were identified using nationally representative primary care data linked to national hospital data and followed up for 5 years. Group-based trajectory models and sequence analysis were applied to their readmissions. RESULTS: In each of the 8 NHS England regions, multiple discrete groups were identified. All the regions had high-impact users. The group with an initially high readmission rate followed by a rapid decline in the rate ranged from 2.5 to 11.3% across the regions. The group with constantly high readmission rate compared with other groups ranged from 1.9 to 12.1%. Covariates that were commonly found to have an association with high-impact users among most of the regions were chronic respiratory disease, chronic renal disease, stroke, anaemia, mood disorder, and cardiac arrhythmia. Respiratory tract infection, urinary infection, cardiopulmonary signs and symptoms and exacerbation of heart failure were common causes in the sequences of readmissions among high-impact users in all regions. CONCLUSION: There is regional variation in England in readmission and mortality rates and in the proportions of HF patients who are high-impact users.

Frailty and co-morbidity predict first hospitalisation after heart failure diagnosis in primary care: population-based observational study in England.

BACKGROUND: frailty has only recently been recognised as important in patients with heart failure (HF), but little has been done to predict the first hospitalisation after diagnosis in unselected primary care populations. OBJECTIVES: to predict the first unplanned HF or all-cause admission after diagnosis, comparing the effects of co-morbidity and frailty, the latter measured by the recently validated electronic frailty index (eFI). DESIGN: observational study. SETTING: primary care in England. SUBJECTS: all adult patients diagnosed with HF in primary care between 2010 and 2013. METHODS: we used electronic health records of patients registered with primary care practices sending records to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) in England with linkage to national hospital admissions and death data. Competing-risk time-to-event analyses identified predictors of first unplanned hospitalisation for HF or for any condition after diagnosis. RESULTS: of 6,360 patients, 9% had an emergency hospitalisation for their HF, and 39% had one for any cause within a year of diagnosis; 578 (9.1%) died within a year without having any emergency admission. The main predictors of HF admission were older age, elevated serum creatinine and not being on a beta-blocker. The main predictors of all-cause admission were age, co-morbidity, frailty, prior admission, not being on a beta-blocker, low haematocrit and living alone. Frailty effects were largest in patients aged under 85. CONCLUSIONS: this study suggests that frailty has predictive power beyond its co-morbidity components. HF patients in the community should be assessed for frailty, which should be reflected in future HF guidelines.

The Validity of All-Cause 30-Day Readmission Rate as a Hospital Performance Metric After Primary Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Risk-adjusted all-cause 30-day readmission rate (ACRR) following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is currently used as a metric of hospital performance as part of the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program. However, the extent to which it is determined by hospital-related factors and is therefore a fair method of determining reimbursement remains unclear. METHODS: Our aim was to systematically review the available literature pertaining to whether ACRR is a valid metric of hospital performance after elective primary THA or TKA as determined by (1) its association with other performance metrics, (2) the extent to which variation in ACRR can be explained by between-hospital variation, and (3) the relative importance of hospital-related versus surgeon- or patient-related factors in determining ACRR. The MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Health Management Information Consortium databases were searched from inception to November 2018 and reference lists of selected articles scanned. The final list of articles was determined by consensus. RESULTS: Eight articles were included. Correlation of ACRR with established composite metrics of both outcome and process measures was poor. There was a weak positive correlation between ACRR and mortality. Only 1.5% of the variation in readmission rates for THA and TKA was found to be attributable to hospital-level factors, with patient-related factors such as age and comorbidities having much greater influence. Use of composite outcome metrics, for example, combining readmission and mortality, or considering the "surgical" readmission rate, improved the sensitivity to detect important between-hospital variation. CONCLUSION: There is insufficient evidence in the current literature to justify the use of ACRR following elective THA and TKA for financially penalizing hospitals. Further work is needed to define what is acceptable variation. The use of a composite metric or surgical readmission rate may improve the ability to detect between-hospital variation.