Novel estimates reveal subnational heterogeneities in disease-relevant contact patterns in the United States.

Population contact patterns fundamentally determine the spread of directly transmitted airborne pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 and influenza. Reliable quantitative estimates of contact patterns are therefore critical to modeling and reducing the spread of directly transmitted infectious diseases and to assessing the effectiveness of interventions intended to limit risky contacts. While many countries have used surveys and contact diaries to collect national-level contact data, local-level estimates of age-specific contact patterns remain rare. Yet, these local-level data are critical since disease dynamics and public health policy typically vary by geography. To overcome this challenge, we introduce a flexible model that can estimate age-specific contact patterns at the subnational level by combining national-level interpersonal contact data with other locality-specific data sources using multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP). We estimate daily contact matrices for all 50 US states and Washington DC from April 2020 to May 2021 using national contact data from the US. Our results reveal important state-level heterogeneities in levels and trends of contacts across the US over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, with implications for the spread of respiratory diseases.

Describing the safety of abortion at the population level using network-based survey approaches.

BACKGROUND: Despite the negative impact of unsafe abortions on women's health and rights, the degree of abortion safety remains strikingly undocumented for a large share of abortions globally. Data on how women induce abortions (method, setting, provider) are central to the measurement of abortion safety. However, health-facility statistics and direct questioning in population surveys do not yield representative data on abortion care seeking pathways in settings where access to abortion services is highly restricted. Recent developments in survey methodologies to study stigmatized / illegal behaviour and hidden populations rely on the fact that such information circulates within social networks; however, such efforts have yet to give convincing results for unsafe abortions. OBJECTIVE: This article presents the protocol of a study whose purpose is to apply and develop further two network-based methods to contribute to the generation of reliable population-level information on the safety of abortions in contexts where access to legal abortion services is highly restricted. METHODS: This study plans to obtain population-level data on abortion care seeking in two Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems in urban Kenya and rural Burkina Faso by applying two methods: Anonymous Third-Party Reporting (ATPR) (also known as confidantes' method) and Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS). We will conduct a mixed methods formative study to determine whether these network-based approaches are pertinent in the study contexts. The ATPR will be refined notably by incorporating elements of the Network Scale-Up Method (NSUM) to correct or account for certain of its biases (transmission, barrier, social desirability, selection). The RDS will provide reliable alternative estimates of abortion safety if large samples and equilibrium can be reached; an RDS multiplex variant (also including social referents) will be tested. DISCUSSION: This study aims at documenting abortion safety in two local sites using ATPR and RDS. If successful, it will provide data on the safety profiles of abortion seekers across sociodemographic categories in two contrasted settings in sub-Saharan Africa. It will advance the formative research needed to determine whether ATPR and RDS are applicable or not in a given context. It will improve the questionnaire and correcting factors for the ATPR, improve the capacity of RDS to produce quasi-representative data on abortion safety, and advance the validation of both methods.

Representative data on how women induce abortions and their consequences are central to measurements of abortion safety. However, due to the stigmatized nature of abortion, measuring the details of the process is challenging when the latter occur out of the realm of the law and do not result in complications registered in hospital statistics. Hence, there is sparse empirical population-level data on how women terminate their pregnancies in countries where access to abortion services is highly restricted, as well as little data on the side effects and complications associated with the methods they chose and health seeking for these complications. Recent developments in indirect survey methodologies to study stigmatized/illegal behaviour and hidden populations are likely to improve the quality of data collected on abortion safety in restrictive contexts: all are based on the sharing of information on stigmatized practices in social networks. We propose to refine and pilot two such network-based methods to validate their use for collecting (quasi) representative data on abortion safety in large population health surveys. These two approaches are: (i) a modified Anonymous Third-Party Reporting method (ATPR) integrating elements of the Network-Scale-up Method (NSUM) and (ii) Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS). We will conduct this study in two African Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) sites, one urban (Nairobi, Kenya), and one comprising a town and adjacent villages (Kaya, Burkina Faso).

CenSoc: Public Linked Administrative Mortality Records for Individual-level Research.

In the United States, much has been learned about the determinants of longevity from survey data and aggregated tabulations. However, the lack of large-scale, individual-level administrative mortality records has proven to be a barrier to further progress. We introduce the CenSoc datasets, which link the complete-count 1940 U.S. Census to Social Security mortality records. These datasets-CenSoc-DMF (N = 4.7 million) and CenSoc-Numident (N = 7.0 million)-primarily cover deaths among individuals aged 65 and older. The size and richness of CenSoc allows investigators to make new discoveries into geographic, racial, and class-based disparities in old-age mortality in the United States. This article gives an overview of the technical steps taken to construct these datasets, validates them using external aggregate mortality data, and discusses best practices for working with these datasets. The CenSoc datasets are publicly available, enabling new avenues of research into the determinants of mortality disparities in the United States.