Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests.

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions1-3. Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest 'carbon sink' will continue for decades4,5. Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests6. Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth's two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature7-9. Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth's intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass10 reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth's climate.

The puzzling ecology of African Marantaceae forests.

Marantaceae forests are tropical rainforests characterized by a continuous understory layer of perennial giant herbs and a near absence of tree regeneration. Although widespread in West-Central Africa, Marantaceae forests have rarely been considered in the international literature. Yet, they pose key challenges and opportunities for theoretical ecology that transcend the borders of the continent. Specifically, we ask in this review whether open Marantaceae forests and dense closed-canopy forests can be considered as one of the few documented examples of alternative stable states in tropical forests. First, we introduce the different ecological factors that have been posited to drive Marantaceae forests (climate, soil, historical and recent anthropogenic pressures, herbivores) and develop the different hypotheses that have been suggested to explain how Marantaceae forests establish in relation with other vegetation types (understory invasion, early succession after disturbance, and intermediate successional stage). Then, we review the underlying ecological mechanisms that can explain the stability of Marantaceae forests in the long term (tree recruitment inhibition, promotion of and resilience to fire, adaptive reproduction, maintenance by megaherbivores). Although some uncertainties remain and call for further empirical and theoretical research, we found converging evidence that Marantaceae forests are associated with an ecological succession that has been deflected or arrested. If verified, Marantaceae forests may provide a useful model to understand critical transitions in forest ecosystems, which is of particular relevance to achieve sustainable forest management and mitigate global climate change.

Resistance of African tropical forests to an extreme climate anomaly.

The responses of tropical forests to environmental change are critical uncertainties in predicting the future impacts of climate change. The positive phase of the 2015-2016 El Niño Southern Oscillation resulted in unprecedented heat and low precipitation in the tropics with substantial impacts on the global carbon cycle. The role of African tropical forests is uncertain as their responses to short-term drought and temperature anomalies have yet to be determined using on-the-ground measurements. African tropical forests may be particularly sensitive because they exist in relatively dry conditions compared with Amazonian or Asian forests, or they may be more resistant because of an abundance of drought-adapted species. Here, we report responses of structurally intact old-growth lowland tropical forests inventoried within the African Tropical Rainforest Observatory Network (AfriTRON). We use 100 long-term inventory plots from six countries each measured at least twice prior to and once following the 2015-2016 El Niño event. These plots experienced the highest temperatures and driest conditions on record. The record temperature did not significantly reduce carbon gains from tree growth or significantly increase carbon losses from tree mortality, but the record drought did significantly decrease net carbon uptake. Overall, the long-term biomass increase of these forests was reduced due to the El Niño event, but these plots remained a live biomass carbon sink (0.51 ± 0.40 Mg C ha-1 y-1) despite extreme environmental conditions. Our analyses, while limited to African tropical forests, suggest they may be more resistant to climatic extremes than Amazonian and Asian forests.

Range-wide indicators of African great ape density distribution.

Species distributions are influenced by processes occurring at multiple spatial scales. It is therefore insufficient to model species distribution at a single geographic scale, as this does not provide the necessary understanding of determining factors. Instead, multiple approaches are needed, each differing in spatial extent, grain, and research objective. Here, we present the first attempt to model continent-wide great ape density distribution. We used site-level estimates of African great ape abundance to (1) identify socioeconomic and environmental factors that drive densities at the continental scale, and (2) predict range-wide great ape density. We collated great ape abundance estimates from 156 sites and defined 134 pseudo-absence sites to represent additional absence locations. The latter were based on locations of unsuitable environmental conditions for great apes, and on existing literature. We compiled seven socioeconomic and environmental covariate layers and fitted a generalized linear model to investigate their influence on great ape abundance. We used an Akaike-weighted average of full and subset models to predict the range-wide density distribution of African great apes for the year 2015. Great ape densities were lowest where there were high Human Footprint and Gross Domestic Product values; the highest predicted densities were in Central Africa, and the lowest in West Africa. Only 10.7% of the total predicted population was found in the International Union for Conservation of Nature Category I and II protected areas. For 16 out of 20 countries, our estimated abundances were largely in line with those from previous studies. For four countries, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, and South Sudan, the estimated populations were excessively high. We propose further improvements to the model to overcome survey and predictor data limitations, which would enable a temporally dynamic approach for monitoring great apes across their range based on key indicators.

Early detection of human impacts using acoustic monitoring: An example with forest elephants.

The impacts of human activities and climate change on animal populations often take considerable time before they are reflected in typical measures of population health such as population size, demography, and landscape use. Earlier detection of such impacts could enhance the effectiveness of conservation strategies, particularly for species with slow population growth. Passive acoustic monitoring is increasingly used to estimate occupancy and population size, but this tool can also monitor subtle shifts in behavior that might be early indicators of changing impacts. Here we use data from an acoustic grid, monitoring 1250 km2 of forest in northern Republic of Congo, to study how forest elephants (Loxodonta cyclotis) assess risk associated with human impacts across a landscape that includes a national park as well as active and inactive logging concessions. By quantifying emerging patterns of behavior at the population level, arising from individual-based decisions, we gain an understanding of how elephants perceive their landscape along an axis of human disturbance. Forest elephants in relatively undisturbed forests are active nearly equally day and night. However, they become more nocturnal when exposed to a perceived risk such as poaching. We assessed elephant perception of risk by monitoring changes in the likelihood of nocturnal vocal activity relative to differing levels of human activity. We show that logging is perceived to be a risk on moderate time and small spatial scales, but with little effect on elephant density. However, risk avoidance persisted in areas with relatively easy access to poachers and in more open habitats where poaching has historically been concentrated. Increased nocturnal activity is a common response in many animals to human intrusion on the landscape. Provided a species is acoustically active, passive acoustic monitoring can measure changes in human impact at early stages of such change, informing management priorities.

Protected areas in tropical Africa: assessing threats and conservation activities.

Numerous protected areas (PAs) have been created in Africa to safeguard wildlife and other natural resources. However, significant threats from anthropogenic activities and decline of wildlife populations persist, while conservation efforts in most PAs are still minimal. We assessed the impact level of the most common threats to wildlife within PAs in tropical Africa and the relationship of conservation activities with threat impact level. We collated data on 98 PAs with tropical forest cover from 15 countries across West, Central and East Africa. For this, we assembled information about local threats as well as conservation activities from published and unpublished literature, and questionnaires sent to long-term field workers. We constructed general linear models to test the significance of specific conservation activities in relation to the threat impact level. Subsistence and commercial hunting were identified as the most common direct threats to wildlife and found to be most prevalent in West and Central Africa. Agriculture and logging represented the most common indirect threats, and were most prevalent in West Africa. We found that the long-term presence of conservation activities (such as law enforcement, research and tourism) was associated with lower threat impact levels. Our results highlight deficiencies in the management effectiveness of several PAs across tropical Africa, and conclude that PA management should invest more into conservation activities with long-term duration.

Culture or climate? The relative influences of past processes on the composition of the lowland Congo rainforest.

This paper presents the results from a palaeoecological study to establish the impact of prehistoric human activity and climate change on the vegetation and soils of the Goualougo area of the Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park, in the Republic of Congo (Congo-Brazzaville). This is a region that is known from previous work (through evidence of pottery, furnaces and charcoal layers beneath the present day rainforest vegetation) to have had prehistoric settlement dating back to at least 2000 calibrated years before present. In addition, there is climatic evidence to suggest that significant variations in precipitation have occurred in central Africa over the last few millennia. Presently, the region is covered in uninhabited moist semi-evergreen rainforest. Key research questions addressed in this paper include the extent to which the present-day composition of rainforest in this region is as a result of processes of the past (climate change and/or human activity), and the resilience of the rainforest to these perturbations. Statistical analyses of pollen, microscopic charcoal and geochemical data are used to determine the relationship over time between vegetation dynamics and climate change, anthropogenic burning and metal smelting. Significant changes in forest composition are linked to burning and climate change but not metallurgy. The strongest influence on the present day composition appears to be related to the increased anthropogenic burning that started approximately 1000 years ago. Results from this study are discussed in terms of their implications for the present and future management of this globally important forested region.