Depressive and anxiety symptoms in adults during the COVID-19 pandemic in England: A panel data analysis over 2 years.

BACKGROUND: There has been much research into the mental health impact of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and how it is related to time-invariant individual characteristics. However, there is still a lack of research showing long-term trajectories of mental health across different stages of the pandemic. And little is known regarding the longitudinal association of time-varying factors with mental health outcomes. This study aimed to provide a longitudinal profile of how mental health in adults changed across different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic and to examine their longitudinal associations with time-varying contextual (e.g., COVID-19 policy response and pandemic intensity) and individual level factors. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This study used data from a large panel study of over 57,000 adults living in England, who were followed up regularly for 2 years between March 2020 and April 2022. Mental health outcomes were depressive and anxiety symptoms. Depressive symptoms were assessed by the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and anxiety symptoms by the Generalized Anxiety Disorder assessment (GAD-7). Entropy balancing weights were applied to restore sample representativeness. After weighting, approximately 50% of participants were female, 14% from ethnic minority backgrounds, with a mean age of 48 years. Descriptive analyses showed that mental health changes were largely in line with changes in COVID-19 policy response and pandemic intensity. Further, data were analysed using fixed-effects (FE) models, which controlled for all time-invariant confounders (observed or not). FE models were fitted separately across 3 stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the first national lockdown (21/03/2020-23/08/2020), second and third national lockdowns (21/09/2020-11/04/2021), and "freedom" period (12/04/2021-14/11/2021). We found that more stringent policy response (measured by stringency index) was associated with increased depressive symptoms, in particular, during lockdown periods (ß = 0.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) = [0.18 to 0.28], p < 0.001; ß = 0.30, 95% CI = [0.21 to 0.39], p < 0.001; ß = 0.04, 95% CI = [-0.03 to 0.12], p = 0.262). Higher COVID-19 deaths were also associated with increased depressive symptoms, but this association weakened over time (ß = 0.29, 95% CI = [0.25 to 0.32], p < 0.001; ß = 0.09, 95% CI = [0.05 to 0.13], p < 0.001; ß = -0.06, 95% CI = [-0.30 to 0.19], p = 0.655). Similar results were also found for anxiety symptoms, for example, stringency index (ß = 0.17, 95% CI = [0.12 to 0.21], p < 0.001; ß = 0.13, 95% CI = [0.06 to 0.21], p = 0.001; ß = 0.10, 95% CI = [0.03 to 0.17], p = 0.005), COVID-19 deaths (ß = 0.07, 95% CI = [0.04 to 0.10], p < 0.001; ß = 0.04, 95% CI = [0.00 to 0.07], p = 0.03; ß = 0.16, 95% CI = [-0.08 to 0.39], p = 0.192). Finally, there was also evidence for the longitudinal association of mental health with individual level factors, including confidence in government/healthcare/essentials, COVID-19 knowledge, COVID-19 stress, COVID-19 infection, and social support. However, it is worth noting that the magnitudes of these longitudinal associations were generally small. The main limitation of the study was its non-probability sample design. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provided empirical evidence on how changes in contextual and individual level factors were related to changes in depressive and anxiety symptoms. While some factors (e.g., confidence in healthcare, social support) clearly acted as consistent predictors of depressive and/or anxiety symptoms, other factors (e.g., stringency index, COVID-19 knowledge) were dependent on the specific situations occurring within society. This could provide important implications for policy making and for a better understanding of mental health of the general public during a national or global health crisis.

Psychological consequences of long COVID: comparing trajectories of depressive and anxiety symptoms before and after contracting SARS-CoV-2 between matched long- and short-COVID groups.

BACKGROUND: There is a growing global awareness of the psychological consequences of long COVID, supported by emerging empirical evidence. However, the emergence and long-term trajectories of psychological symptoms following the infection are still unclear. AIMS: To examine when psychological symptoms first emerge following infection with SARS-CoV-2 and the long-term trajectories of psychological symptoms comparing long- and short-COVID groups. METHOD: We analysed longitudinal data from the UCL COVID-19 Social Study (March 2020 to November 2021). We included data from adults living in England who reported contracting SARS-CoV-2 by November 2021 (n = 3115). Of these, 15.9% reported having had long COVID (n = 495). They were matched to participants who had short COVID using propensity score matching on a variety of demographic, socioeconomic and health covariates (n = 962 individuals with 13 325 observations) and data were further analysed using growth curve modelling. RESULTS: Depressive and anxiety symptoms increased immediately following the onset of infection in both long- and short-COVID groups. But the long-COVID group had substantially greater initial increases in depressive symptoms and heightened levels over 22 months follow-up. Initial increases in anxiety were not significantly different between groups, but only the short-COVID group experienced an improvement in anxiety over follow-up, leading to widening differences between groups. CONCLUSIONS: The findings support work on the psychobiological pathways involved in the development of psychological symptoms relating to long COVID. The results highlight the need for monitoring of mental health and provision of adequate support to be interwoven with diagnosis and treatment of the physical consequences of long COVID.

Longitudinal changes in home confinement and mental health implications: a 17-month follow-up study in England during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has brought about significant behavioural changes, one of which is increased time spent at home. This could have important public health implications. This study aimed to explore longitudinal patterns of 'home confinement' (defined as not leaving the house/garden) during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the associated predictors and mental health outcomes. METHODS: Data were from the UCL COVID-19 Social Study. The analytical sample consisted of 25 390 adults in England who were followed up for 17 months (March 2020-July 2021). Data were analysed using growth mixture models. RESULTS: Our analyses identified three classes of growth trajectories, including one class showing a high level of persistent home confinement (the home-confined, 24.8%), one changing class with clear alignment with national containment measures (the adaptive, 32.0%), and one class with a persistently low level of confinement (the unconfined, 43.1%). A range of factors were associated with the class membership of home-confinement trajectories, such as age, gender, income, employment status, social relationships and health. The home-confined class had the highest number of depressive (diff = 1.34-1.68, p < 0.001) and anxiety symptoms (diff = 0.84-1.05, p < 0.001) at the end of the follow-up than the other two classes. CONCLUSIONS: There was substantial heterogeneity in longitudinal patterns of home confinement during the COVID-19 pandemic. People with a persistent high level of confinement had the worst mental health outcomes, calling for special attention in mental health action plans, in particular targeted interventions for at-risk groups.

Wellbeing while waiting evaluating social prescribing in CAMHS: study protocol for a hybrid type II implementation-effectiveness study.

BACKGROUND: Social prescribing is a mechanism of connecting patients with non-medical forms of support within the community and has been shown to improve mental health and wellbeing in adult populations. In the last few years, it has been used in child and youth settings with promising results. Currently, pathways are being developed for social prescribing in Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) to support children and young people on treatment waiting lists. The Wellbeing While Waiting study will evaluate whether social prescribing benefits the mental health and wellbeing of children and young people. METHODS: This study utilises an observational, hybrid type II implementation-effectiveness design. Up to ten CAMHS who are developing social prescribing pathways as part of a programme run across England with support from the Social Prescribing Youth Network will participate. Outcomes for children and young people receiving social prescribing whilst on CAMHS waiting lists will be compared to a control group recruited prior to the pathway roll-out. Questionnaire data will be collected at baseline, 3 months and 6 months. Primary outcomes for children and young people are mental health symptoms (including anxiety, depression, stress, emotional and behavioural difficulties). Secondary outcomes include: loneliness, resilience, happiness, whether life is worthwhile, life satisfaction, and service use. An implementation strand using questionnaires and interviews will explore the acceptability, feasibility, and suitability of the pathway, potential mechanisms of action and their moderating effects on the outcomes of interest, as well as the perceived impact of social prescribing. Questionnaire data will be analysed mainly using difference-in-differences or controlled interrupted time series analysis. Interview data will be analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. DISCUSSION: The Wellbeing While Waiting study will provide the first rigorous evidence of the impact of social prescribing for children and young people on waiting lists for mental health treatment. Findings will help inform the prioritisation, commissioning, and running of social prescribing in other CAMHS. To maximise impact, findings will be available on the study website ( https://sbbresearch.org ) and disseminated via national and international networks. TRIAL REGISTRATION: N/A.

The state of loneliness and social isolation research: current knowledge and future directions.

In this editorial, we consider the current state of loneliness and social isolation research around the world, including knowledge gaps in the empirical literature.

Cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between arts engagement, loneliness, and social support in adolescence.

PURPOSE: Although arts engagement holds promise for reducing loneliness and enhancing social support, previous research has focussed on older adults. We investigated whether arts engagement was associated with loneliness and social support during adolescence. METHODS: We included 11,780 adolescents aged 11-21 years from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, a nationally representative cohort study. We measured whether adolescents engaged in school-based arts activities (band, book club, chorus, choir, cheerleading, dance, drama club, newspaper, orchestra) at wave one (1994-1995). Loneliness and perceived social support from peers were measured at waves one and two (1996). We used logistic regression to test whether arts engagement was associated with concurrent and subsequent loneliness and social support. RESULTS: Arts engagement was not associated with concurrent or subsequent loneliness. Compared to not engaging, doing one or more school-based arts activities was associated with 59% higher odds of high social support concurrently (odds ratio [OR] = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.32-1.91). However, this cross-sectional association was attenuated after adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic, and health-related covariates (adjusted OR [AOR] = 1.16, 95% CI = 0.95-1.42). In contrast, doing arts activities was associated with 28% higher odds of reporting high social support one year later (AOR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.03-1.59), independent of covariates and previous social support. CONCLUSIONS: Extracurricular arts activities are associated with increased odds of reporting good subsequent social support from peers. This may be because they provide opportunities for social engagement, developing friendships, and building a sense of community. Exploring these associations in more detail should be a priority, enabling better understanding of this strategy for enhancing social ties during adolescence.

Associations between participation in community arts groups and aspects of wellbeing in older adults in the United States: a propensity score matching analysis.

Objectives: There is a social gradient in both arts engagement and wellbeing that may have led to an overestimation of the impact of arts engagement on wellbeing. We tested whether participation in community arts groups was associated with wellbeing after removing confounding by demographic, socioeconomic, and health-related factors.Methods: Using propensity score matching, we analyzed data from 12,055 older adults in the Health and Retirement Study. We measured community arts groups participation and concurrent life satisfaction (evaluative wellbeing), positive and negative affect (experienced wellbeing), and purpose in life, constraints on personal control, and mastery (eudaimonic wellbeing).Results: After matching, arts group participation was associated with higher positive affect (average treatment effect on the treated [ATT] = 0.18, 95% CI = 0.12-0.24), life satisfaction (ATT = 0.09, 95% CI = 0.04-0.15), purpose in life (ATT = 0.07, 95% CI = 0.02-0.13), and mastery (ATT = 0.07, 95% CI = 0.01-0.14) than not participating. Participation was not associated with negative affect or constraints on personal control. In sensitivity analyses, these associations were maintained four years later.Conclusion: Arts group participation was associated with the positive elements of evaluative, experienced, and eudaimonic wellbeing. Facilitating participation in community arts groups could help to promote healthy aging, enabling a growing segment of the population to lead more fulfilling and satisfying lives.

A Bourdieusian Latent Class Analysis of Cultural, Arts, Heritage and Sports Activities in the UK Representative Understanding Society Dataset.

To Bourdieu, interaction with culture has symbolic power and drives the manifestation of social stratification. Many have adapted his theory and methodology, developing new models of cultural engagement. Here, to further integrate these theoretical and methodological approaches, Bourdieu's tools were used to operationalise and interpret a Latent Class Analysis of cultural engagement in the Understanding Society dataset. Six classes of increasing engagement were established, and were increasingly correlated with youth, capital and social advantage. However, some qualitative differences in engagement were also seen. The classes also varied by which characteristics correlated with membership. For example, economic capital was associated with sports engagement, while advantaged social position was associated with broad-scale engagement. Overall, this analysis combined Bourdieusian theory with contemporary methodology in the largest representative UK dataset and highlights the broader relevance of cultural engagement patterns in indicating (and possibly generating) status, identity, capital and social position.

Comparing the mental health trajectories of four different types of keyworkers with non-keyworkers: 12-month follow-up observational study of 21 874 adults in England during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: There are concerns that keyworkers may be at a greater risk for psychological distress than non-keyworkers during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, little research has included keyworkers outside of the healthcare sector or has disaggregated keyworkers into different subgroups. AIMS: To examine longitudinal changes in mental health over 12 months during the COVID-19 pandemic comparing four different groups of keyworkers with non-keyworkers. METHOD: Longitudinal data were from 21 874 adults living in England (21 March 2020 to 22 February 2021). Latent growth modelling was utilised to compare growth trajectories of depressive and anxiety symptoms in non-keyworkers and four types of keyworkers: (a) health and social care workers, (b) teachers and child care workers, (c) public service workers, and (d) essential services keyworkers (such as food chain or utility workers). RESULTS: When accounting for both time-invariant and time-varying covariates, keyworkers in the essential services category had consistently higher levels of depressive and anxiety symptoms than non-keyworkers across the whole of the study period. There was little difference in the mental health trajectories between health/social care, teachers/child care and public service worker categories and non-keyworkers. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the risk for poorer mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic varies within the broad category of keyworkers generally, and that those working in utility, food chain and transport roles are especially at risk. Future research should focus on identifying which aspects of working conditions may be contributing to occupational stress in these groups.

Frequency of leisure activity engagement and health functioning over a 4-year period: a population-based study amongst middle-aged adults.

RATIONALE: Leisure activities have wide-ranging benefits for physical and mental health. However, previous studies have often focused on "leisure" as a homogeneous group of activities. This study was therefore designed to take a prospective and comparative approach exploring different types of leisure activities, as well as investigating whether frequency of engagement is associated with strength of benefits. METHOD: Data from the 1970 British Cohort Study Waves 9 (age 42) and 10 (age 46) were analysed (N = 5,639). Eight domains derived from the SF-36 health survey questionnaire were used to measure health functioning (general health, vitality, bodily pain, social functioning, physical functioning, mental health, role limitations due to emotional, and role limitations due to physical problems). Leisure activities included physical activity, culture engagement, arts participation, volunteering or community engagement, and literature activities. Both ordinary least squares and logistic regressions were applied. RESULTS: Physical activity was associated with greater levels of physical functioning, general health, and vitality at higher frequencies, while cultural engagement was associated with social functioning and physical functioning when engaged in several times a year. Arts participation and literature activities had a general negative association with health functioning. Engagements in volunteering/community groups showed varying associations with health functioning (both positive and negative) depending on the levels of engagements. CONCLUSION: This research suggests that the types of leisure activities and levels of engagement can have differential associations with health amongst middle-aged adults. This may be helpful for public health initiatives and programmes such as social prescribing schemes when formulating programmes, especially regarding 'dosage' of engagement. Further, the overall benefits of high engagement frequency suggest that increasing leisure engagement could play an important role in supporting improving health and wellbeing at a population level.

Arts and Cultural Engagement, Reportedly Antisocial or Criminalized Behaviors, and Potential Mediators in Two Longitudinal Cohorts of Adolescents.

Arts and cultural engagement is a potential strategy for reducing or preventing reportedly antisocial or criminalized behaviors (those previously and problematically termed as "delinquent") in adolescence. However, most research to date has focused on arts-based interventions and has not tested arts and cultural engagement in large population-based longitudinal studies. This study investigated whether arts and cultural engagement reduced reportedly antisocial or criminalized behaviors in two large nationally representative cohorts, the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (n = 10,610; 50% female, 72% White, age range = 11-21 mean = 15.07) and the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (n = 15,214; 50% female, 73% White, age range = 13-16 mean = 14.38). Structural equation modelling also allowed exploration of two potential mechanisms that might link arts and cultural engagement to reportedly antisocial or criminalized behaviors (self-control and attitudes towards these behaviors). More arts and cultural engagement was associated with fewer reportedly antisocial or criminalized behaviors, better self-control scores, and fewer positive perceptions of reportedly antisocial or criminalized behaviors concurrently and one to two years later. Arts and cultural engagement may provide opportunities for adolescents to realize positive developmental outcomes, reducing their risk of reportedly antisocial or criminalized behaviors.

Time use and mental health in UK adults during an 11-week COVID-19 lockdown: a panel analysis.

BACKGROUND: There is currently major concern about the impact of the global COVID-19 outbreak on mental health. But it remains unclear how individual behaviours could exacerbate or protect against adverse changes in mental health. AIMS: To examine the associations between specific activities (or time use) and mental health and well-being among people during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD: Data were from the UCL COVID-19 Social Study, a panel study collecting data weekly during the COVID-19 pandemic. The analytical sample consisted of 55 204 adults living in the UK who were followed up for the 11-week strict lockdown period from 21 March to 31 May 2020. Data were analysed using fixed-effects and Arellano-Bond models. RESULTS: Changes in time spent on a range of activities were associated with changes in mental health and well-being. After controlling for bidirectionality, behaviours involving outdoor activities such as gardening and exercising predicted subsequent improvements in mental health and well-being, whereas increased time spent following news about COVID-19 predicted declines in mental health and well-being. CONCLUSIONS: These results are relevant to the formulation of guidance for people obliged to spend extended periods in isolation during health emergencies and may help the public to maintain well-being during future lockdowns and pandemics.

Who engages in the arts in the United States? A comparison of several types of engagement using data from The General Social Survey.

BACKGROUND: Engaging in the arts is a health-related behavior that may be influenced by social inequalities. While it is generally accepted that there is a social gradient in traditional arts and cultural activities, such as attending classical music performances and museums, previous studies of arts engagement in the US have not adequately investigated whether similar demographic and socioeconomic factors are related to other forms of arts engagement. METHODS: Using cross-sectional data from the General Social Survey (GSS) in the US, we examined which demographic, socioeconomic, residential, and health factors were associated with attendance at arts events, participation in arts activities, membership of creative groups, and being interested in (but not attending) arts events. We combined data from 1993 to 2016 in four analytical samples with a sample size of 8684 for arts events, 4372 for arts activities, 4268 for creative groups, and 2061 for interested non-attendees. Data were analysed using logistic regression. RESULTS: More education was associated with increased levels of all types of arts engagement. Parental education demonstrated a similar association. Being female, compared to male, was also consistently associated with higher levels of engagement. Attendance at arts events was lower in participants with lower income and social class, poorer health, and those living in less urban areas. However, these factors were not associated with participation in arts activities or creative groups or being an interested non-attendee. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, we found evidence for a social gradient in attendance at arts events, which was not as pronounced in participation in arts activities or creative groups or interest in arts events. Given the many benefits of engagement in the arts for education, health, and wider welfare, our findings demonstrate the importance of identifying factors to reduce barriers to participation in the arts across all groups in society.

Rates and predictors of uptake of mental health support during the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of 26,720 adults in the UK in lockdown.

PURPOSE: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has put a great strain on people's mental health. A growing number of studies have shown worsening mental health measures globally during the pandemic. However, there is a lack of empirical study on how people support their mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to examine a number of formal and informal mental health support. Further, it explored factors that might be associated with the use of different types mental health support. METHODS: Data from 26,720 adults in the UCL COVID-19 Social Study were analysed between 13th April 2020 and 3rd July 2020. Data were analysed using logistic and Poisson regression models. RESULTS: About 45% of people reported talking to friends or family members to support their mental health, 43% engaging in self-care activities, 20% taking medication, 9% speaking to mental health professionals, 8% talking to a GP or other health professional, and another 8% using helpline or online services. Gender, education, living status, loneliness, pre-existing mental health conditions, general depression and anxiety, coping and personality were found to be associated with the use of mental health support. CONCLUSION: While the negative impacts caused by the COVID-19 pandemic are inevitable, people can play an active role in managing their mental health. Understanding the patterns and predictors of various kinds of mental health support during the pandemic is crucial for future service planning and delivery through recognising potential barriers to mental health care faced by certain groups.

How is patient activation related to healthcare service utilisation? Evidence from electronic patient records in England.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing awareness of the importance of patient activation (knowledge, skills, and confidence for managing one's health and health care) among clinicians and policy makers, with emerging evidence showing higher levels of patient activation are associated with better health outcomes and experiences of health care. This study aimed to examine the association between patient activation and a wide range of specific types of healthcare service utilisation in England, including GP and non-GP primary care, elective and emergency hospital admissions, outpatient visits, and attendances at the Accident and Emergency department. METHODS: Data were derived from linked electronic patient records collected by primary and secondary healthcare providers in North West London between January 2016 and November 2019. Our analyses focused on adults (18+) with a valid Patient Activation Measure (PAM). After excluding patients with missing data, we had an analytical sample of 15,877 patients. Data were analysed using negative binomial regression and logistic regression models depending on the outcome variable. RESULTS: Patients had a mean activation score of 55.1 and a standard deviation (SD) of 17.7 (range: 0-100). They had an average of 5.4 GP visits (SD = 8.0), 26.8 non-GP visits (SD = 23.4) and 6.0 outpatient attendances (SD = 7.9) within a one-year follow-up. About 24.7% patients had at least one elective admission, 24.2% had one or more emergency admissions, and 42.3% had one or more A&E attendance within the follow-up. After accounting for a number of demographic and health factors, we found a linear (or proximately linear) association between patient activation and the number of GP visits, emergency admissions and A&E attendance, but a non-linear relationship between patient activation and the number of non-GP visits, the number of outpatient attendance and elective inpatient admission. CONCLUSIONS: This study has provided strong empirical evidence from England linking patient activation with healthcare service utilisation. It suggests the value of supporting patient activation as a potential pathway to ease the burden of healthcare system.

Loneliness and Risk for Cardiovascular Disease: Mechanisms and Future Directions.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In this review, we synthesise recent research on the association between loneliness and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We present evidence for mechanisms underlying this association and propose directions for future research. RECENT FINDINGS: Loneliness is related to increased risk of early mortality and CVD comparable to other well-established risk factors such as obesity or smoking. Loneliness has been linked to higher rates of incident CVD, poorer CVD patient outcomes, and early mortality from CVD. Loneliness likely affects risk for these outcomes via health-related behaviours (e.g. physical inactivity and smoking), biological mechanisms (e.g. inflammation, stress reactivity), and psychological factors (e.g. depression) to indirectly damage health.

Social isolation and loneliness as risk factors for hospital admissions for respiratory disease among older adults.

Rising hospital admissions due to respiratory disease (RD) are a major challenge to hospitals. This study explored modifiable social risk factors among 4478 older adults from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Data were linked with administrative hospital records and mortality registry data (follow-up 9.6 years) and analysed using survival analysis accounting for competing risks. Living alone and social disengagement but not social contact or loneliness were associated with an increased risk of RD admissions, independent of socio-demographic, health and behaviour factors. Providing support for disengaged adults living alone who are at risk of RD admissions should be explored.

Leisure engagement in older age is related to objective and subjective experiences of aging.

Leisure engagement has potential to slow health and functional decline in older age. However, the benefits of different leisure domains for different aspects of aging remains unclear. In 8771 older adults from the Health and Retirement Study (a longitudinal panel study), we measured engagement in physical, creative, cognitive, and community activities. Outcome-wide analyses used 23 aging experiences across seven domains eight years later (daily functioning, physical fitness, long-term physical health problems, heart health, weight, sleep, subjective perceptions of health). Physical activity was related to more positive experiences in all domains but heart health eight years later. Creative engagement was positively related to aging experiences in four domains longitudinally. Cognitive and community engagement were less consistently related to aging experiences. Physical and creative activities may influence important aging metrics, reducing age-related decline and keeping older adults functionally independent for longer, potentially limiting increasing healthcare costs.

Variation in symptoms of common mental disorders in the general population during the COVID-19 pandemic: longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: A significant rise in mental health disorders was expected during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, referrals to mental health services dropped for several months before rising to pre-pandemic levels. AIMS: To identify trajectories of incidence and risk factors for common mental disorders among the general population during 14 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, to inform potential mental health service needs. METHOD: A cohort of 33 703 adults in England in the University College London COVID-19 Social Study provided data from March 2020 to May 2021. Growth mixture modelling was used to identify trajectories based on the probability of participants reporting symptoms of depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9) or anxiety (Generalised Anxiety Disorder-7) in the clinical range, for each month. Sociodemographic and personality-related characteristics associated with each trajectory class were explored. RESULTS: Five trajectory classes were identified for depression and anxiety. Participants in the largest class (62%) were very unlikely to report clinically significant symptom levels. Other trajectories represented participants with a high likelihood of clinically significant symptoms throughout, early clinically significant symptoms that reduced over time, clinically significant symptoms that emerged as the pandemic unfolded and a moderate likelihood of clinically significant symptoms throughout. Females, younger adults, carers, those with existing mental health diagnoses, those that socialised frequently pre-pandemic and those with higher neuroticism scores were more likely to experience depression or anxiety. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly 40% of participants followed trajectories indicating risk of clinically significant symptoms of depression or anxiety. The identified risk factors could inform public health interventions to target individuals at risk in future health emergencies.