Development, validation, and prognostic evaluation of a risk score for long-term liver-related outcomes in the general population: a multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide. Cirrhosis develops after a long asymptomatic period of fibrosis progression, with the diagnosis frequently occurring late, when major complications or cancer develop. Few reliable tools exist for timely identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis to allow for early intervention. We aimed to develop a novel score to identify individuals at risk for future liver-related outcomes. METHODS: We derived the LiverRisk score from an international prospective cohort of individuals from six countries without known liver disease from the general population, who underwent liver fibrosis assessment by transient elastography. The score included age, sex, and six standard laboratory variables. We created four groups: minimal risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk according to selected cutoff values of the LiverRisk score (6, 10, and 15). The model's discriminatory accuracy and calibration were externally validated in two prospective cohorts from the general population. Moreover, we ascertained the prognostic value of the score in the prediction of liver-related outcomes in participants without known liver disease with median follow-up of 12 years (UK Biobank cohort). FINDINGS: We included 14 726 participants: 6357 (43·2%) in the derivation cohort, 4370 (29·7%) in the first external validation cohort, and 3999 (27·2%) in the second external validation cohort. The score accurately predicted liver stiffness in the development and external validation cohorts, and was superior to conventional serum biomarkers of fibrosis, as measured by area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC; 0·83 [95% CI [0·78-0·89]) versus the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4; 0·68 [0·61-0·75] at 10 kPa). The score was effective in identifying individuals at risk of liver-related mortality, liver-related hospitalisation, and liver cancer, thereby allowing stratification to different risk groups for liver-related outcomes. The hazard ratio for liver-related mortality in the high-risk group was 471 (95% CI 347-641) compared with the minimal risk group, and the overall AUC of the score in predicting 10-year liver-related mortality was 0·90 (0·88-0·91) versus 0.84 (0·82-0·86) for FIB-4. INTERPRETATION: The LiverRisk score, based on simple parameters, predicted liver fibrosis and future development of liver-related outcomes in the general population. The score might allow for stratification of individuals according to liver risk and thus guide preventive care. FUNDING: European Commission under the H20/20 programme; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria de Salud; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness; the European Regional Development Fund; and the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

Population screening for liver fibrosis: Toward early diagnosis and intervention for chronic liver diseases.

Cirrhosis, highly prevalent worldwide, develops after years of hepatic inflammation triggering progressive fibrosis. Currently, the main etiologies of cirrhosis are non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-related liver disease, although chronic hepatitis B and C infections are still major etiological factors in some areas of the world. Recent studies have shown that liver fibrosis can be assessed with relatively high accuracy noninvasively by serological tests, transient elastography, and radiological methods. These modalities may be utilized for screening for liver fibrosis in at-risk populations. Thus far, a limited number of population-based studies using noninvasive tests in different areas of the world indicate that a significant percentage of subjects without known liver disease (around 5% in general populations and a higher rate -18% to 27%-in populations with risk factors for liver disease) have significant undetected liver fibrosis or established cirrhosis. Larger international studies are required to show the harms and benefits before concluding that screening for liver fibrosis should be applied to populations at risk for chronic liver diseases. Screening for liver fibrosis has the potential for changing the current approach from diagnosing chronic liver diseases late when patients have already developed complications of cirrhosis to diagnosing liver fibrosis in asymptomatic subjects providing the opportunity of preventing disease progression.

Low Accuracy of FIB-4 and NAFLD Fibrosis Scores for Screening for Liver Fibrosis in the Population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS) are the 2 most popular noninvasive blood-based serum tests proposed for widespread fibrosis screening. We therefore aimed to describe the accuracy of FIB-4 and NFS to detect elevated liver stiffness as an indicator of hepatic fibrosis in low-prevalence populations. METHODS: This study included a total of 5129 patients with concomitant measurement of FIB-4, NFS, and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by Fibroscan (Echosens, France) from 5 independent population-based cohorts from Spain, Hong Kong, Denmark, England, and France; 3979 participants from the general population and 1150 from at-risk cohorts due to alcohol, diabetes, or obesity. We correlated LSM with FIB-4 and NFS, and calculated pre- and post-test predictive values of FIB-4 and NFS to detect elevated LSM at 8 kPa and 12 kPa cutoffs. The mean age was 53 ± 12 years, the mean body mass index was 27 ± 5 kg/m2, and 2439 (57%) were women. One in 10 patients (552; 11%) had liver stiffness ≥8 kPa, but 239 of those (43%) had a normal FIB-4, and 171 (31%) had normal NFS. The proportion of false-negatives was higher in at-risk patients than the general population. FIB-4 was false-negative in 11% of diabetic subjects, compared with 2.5% false-negatives with NFS. Waist circumference outperformed FIB-4 and NFS for detecting LSM ≥8 kPa in the general population. Almost one-third (28%-29%) of elevated FIB-4/NFS were false-positive in both the general population and at-risk cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: FIB-4 and NFS are suboptimal for screening purposes due to a high risk of overdiagnosis and a non-negligible percentage of false-negatives, especially in patients with risk factors for chronic liver disease. Waist circumference emerged as a potential first step to identify patients at risk for liver fibrosis in the general population.

LiverScreen project: study protocol for screening for liver fibrosis in the general population in European countries.

BACKGROUND: The development of liver cirrhosis is usually an asymptomatic process until late stages when complications occur. The potential reversibility of the disease is dependent on early diagnosis of liver fibrosis and timely targeted treatment. Recently, the use of non-invasive tools has been suggested for screening of liver fibrosis, especially in subjects with risk factors for chronic liver disease. Nevertheless, large population-based studies with cost-effectiveness analyses are still lacking to support the widespread use of such tools. The aim of this study is to investigate whether non-invasive liver stiffness measurement in the general population is useful to identify subjects with asymptomatic, advanced chronic liver disease. METHODS: This study aims to include 30,000 subjects from eight European countries. Subjects from the general population aged ≥ 40 years without known liver disease will be invited to participate in the study either through phone calls/letters or through their primary care center. In the first study visit, subjects will undergo bloodwork as well as hepatic fat quantification and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography. If LSM is ≥ 8 kPa and/or if ALT levels are ≥1.5 x upper limit of normal, subjects will be referred to hospital for further evaluation and consideration of liver biopsy. The primary outcome is the percentage of subjects with LSM ≥ 8kPa. In addition, a health economic evaluation will be performed to assess the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of such an intervention. The project is funded by the European Commission H2020 program. DISCUSSION: This study comes at an especially important time, as the burden of chronic liver diseases is expected to increase in the coming years. There is consequently an urgent need to change our current approach, from diagnosing the disease late when the impact of interventions may be limited to diagnosing the disease earlier, when the patient is asymptomatic and free of complications, and the disease potentially reversible. Ultimately, the LiverScreen study will serve as a basis from which diagnostic pathways can be developed and adapted to the specific socio-economic and healthcare conditions in each country. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered on Clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT03789825 ).

Interaction between metabolic syndrome and alcohol consumption, risk factors of liver fibrosis: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcohol and metabolic syndrome (MS) coexist frequently as cofactors of liver disease. Previous studies suggest a deleterious effect of MS in advanced alcohol-related liver disease (ArLD). However, it is unknow whether MS can increase the risk of liver fibrosis in early stages of ArLD. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of MS on liver fibrosis in subjects with alcohol consumption from a population-based cohort. METHODS: The number of subjects include 1760(58%) of 3014 who were randomly selected from the community consumed alcohol and were classified as current drinkers, divided in moderate (n = 1222) or high-risk drinkers (n = 275) (>21 units/week men, >14 units/week women for high-risk drinkers), or former drinkers (n = 263). Liver fibrosis was estimated by measuring liver stiffness(LS) with transient elastography (TE). RESULTS: Prevalence of significant LS using cutoff values of TE of 8 and 9.1kPa was increased in high-risk compared with moderate or former drinkers and lifetime abstainers. In subjects with alcohol consumption, LS was associated with male gender, AST, ALT, years of consumption, and MS. In high-risk drinkers, MS and intensity of consumption were the only factors associated with significant LS (OR 3.7 and 4.6 for LS ≥ 8 kPa and 3.9 and 9.2 kPa for LS ≥ 9.1 kPa, respectively). Presence of significant liver fibrosis in the liver biopsy was higher among high-risk as compared with moderate or former drinkers. CONCLUSION: MS increases the risk of liver fibrosis in subjects with alcohol consumption. Among high-risk drinkers, only MS and consumption of high amount of alcohol are associated with risk of liver fibrosis.

Significant decrease in the prevalence of hepatitis C infection after the introduction of direct acting antivirals.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Accurate information on the epidemiology of hepatitis C and B infection is mandatory to establish a national/regional plan. We aim to update the prevalence of hepatitis C and B infection in Catalonia using point-of-care tests to analyze the risk factors related and to implement a linkage-to-care circuit. METHODS: This is a community-based study. A random list of adult individuals was retrieved from censuses of primary care centers. Point-of-care tests for anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) and a questionnaire for risk factor assessment were performed. Positive results were validated and a circuit for linkage-to-care was established. RESULTS: A total of 3328 individuals were included. The anti-HCV and HBsAg overall prevalence were lower than expected [1.02%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65-1.39; and 0.52%, 95% CI 0.26-0.77, respectively]. Anti-HCV positive subjects were mostly (88%) autochthonous. The prevalence increased with age; only 12% were under age 40. The associated risk factors were drug use, blood transfusion, relative with HCV, and diabetes. Notably, the prevalence of active infection was only 0.49% (95% CI 0.23-0.74), 40% less than previously reported, reflecting the impact of direct acting antiviral therapy. Differently, HBsAg positive subjects were mostly foreign migrants (53%) with no other risk factors. Despite the implementation of a linkage-to-care circuit, one third of HBsAg positive subjects were lost. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of HCV infection was lower than previously reported, showing a strong impact of direct acting antiviral therapy in the last years. Because of hepatitis B universal vaccination, HBV infection in Catalonia is mainly associated with migrant population. Linkage-to-care in patients with hepatitis B was challenging and warrants additional efforts.

Transient elastography for screening of liver fibrosis: Cost-effectiveness analysis from six prospective cohorts in Europe and Asia.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-related liver disease pose an important challenge to current clinical healthcare pathways because of the large number of at-risk patients. Therefore, we aimed to explore the cost-effectiveness of transient elastography (TE) as a screening method to detect liver fibrosis in a primary care pathway. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using real-life individual patient data from 6 independent prospective cohorts (5 from Europe and 1 from Asia). A diagnostic algorithm with conditional inference trees was developed to explore the relationships between liver stiffness, socio-demographics, comorbidities, and hepatic fibrosis, the latter assessed by fibrosis scores (FIB-4, NFS) and liver biopsies in a subset of 352 patients. We compared the incremental cost-effectiveness of a screening strategy against standard of care alongside the numbers needed to screen to diagnose a patient with fibrosis stage ≥F2. RESULTS: The data set encompassed 6,295 participants (mean age 55 ±â€¯12 years, BMI 27 ±â€¯5 kg/m2, liver stiffness 5.6 ±â€¯5.0 kPa). A 9.1 kPa TE cut-off provided the best accuracy for the diagnosis of significant fibrosis (≥F2) in general population settings, whereas a threshold of 9.5 kPa was optimal for populations at-risk of alcohol-related liver disease. TE with the proposed cut-offs outperformed fibrosis scores in terms of accuracy. Screening with TE was cost-effective with mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from 2,570 €/QALY (95% CI 2,456-2,683) for a population at-risk of alcohol-related liver disease (age ≥45 years) to 6,217 €/QALY (95% CI 5,832-6,601) in the general population. Overall, there was a 12% chance of TE screening being cost saving across countries and populations. CONCLUSIONS: Screening for liver fibrosis with TE in primary care is a cost-effective intervention for European and Asian populations and may even be cost saving. LAY SUMMARY: The lack of optimized public health screening strategies for the detection of liver fibrosis in adults without known liver disease presents a major healthcare challenge. Analyses from 6 independent international cohorts, with transient elastography measurements, show that a community-based risk-stratification strategy for alcohol-related and non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases is cost-effective and potentially cost saving for our healthcare systems, as it leads to earlier identification of patients.

Range of Normal Liver Stiffness and Factors Associated With Increased Stiffness Measurements in Apparently Healthy Individuals.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Transient elastography (TE) is a noninvasive technique used to measure liver stiffness to estimate the severity of fibrosis. The range of liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) in healthy individuals is unclear. We performed a systematic review to determine the range of LSMs, examined by TE, in healthy individuals and individuals who are susceptible to fibrosis. METHODS: We collected data from 16,082 individuals, in 26 cohorts, identified from systematic searches of Embase, Ovid MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for studies of liver stiffness measurements. Studies analyzed included apparently healthy adults (normal levels of liver enzymes, low-risk alcohol use patterns, and negative for markers of viral hepatitis). The presence of diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, or steatosis, based on ultrasound examination, was known for most participants. We performed a meta-analysis of data from individual participants. The cohort was divided into 4 groups; participants with a body mass index <30 kg/m2 were examined with the medium probe and those with a body mass index ≥30 kg/m2 were examined with the extra-large probe. Linear regression models were conducted after adjusting for potential confounding factors of LSMs. We performed several sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: We established LSM ranges for healthy individuals measured with both probes-these did not change significantly in sensitivity analyses of individuals with platelets ≥150,000/mm3 and levels of alanine aminotransferase ≤33 IU/L in men or ≤25 IU/L in women. In multivariate analysis, factors that modified LSMs with statistical significance included diabetes, dyslipidemia, waist circumference, level of aspartate aminotransferase, and systolic blood pressure at examination time. Significant increases in LSMs were associated with the metabolic syndrome in individuals examined by either probe. Diabetes in obese individuals increased the risk of LSMs in the range associated with advanced fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: In a systematic review and meta-analysis of data from individual participants, we established a comprehensive set of LSM ranges, measured by TE in large cohorts of healthy individuals and persons susceptible to hepatic fibrosis. Regression analyses identified factors associated with increased LSMs obtained by TE with the medium and extra-large probes.

Alcohol-related liver disease. Clinical practice guidelines. Consensus document sponsored by AEEH. / Enfermedad hepática por alcohol. Guías de práctica clínica. Documento de consenso auspiciado por la AEEH.

Alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) is the most prevalent cause of advanced liver disease and liver cirrhosis in Europe, including Spain. According to the World Health Organization the fraction of liver cirrhosis attributable to alcohol use in Spain is 73.8% among men and 56.3% among women. ARLD includes various stages such as steatohepatitis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer. In addition, patients with underlying ARLD and heavy alcohol intake may develop alcoholic hepatitis, which is associated with high mortality. To date, the only effective treatment to treat ARLD is prolonged withdrawal. There are no specific treatments, and the only treatment that increases life expectancy in alcoholic hepatitis is prednisolone. For patients with alcoholic hepatitis who do not respond to treatment, some centres offer the possibility of an early transplant. These clinical practice guidelines aim to propose recommendations on ARLD taking into account their relevance as a cause of advanced chronic liver disease and liver cirrhosis in our setting. This paper aims to answer the key questions for the clinical practice of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, as well as Internal Medicine and Primary Health Centres, making the most up-to-date information regarding the management and treatment of ARLD available to health professionals. These guidelines provide evidence-based recommendations for the clinical management of this disease.

High Prevalence of Liver Fibrosis Among European Adults With Unknown Liver Disease: A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Liver fibrosis is the main determinant of long-term outcome in chronic liver diseases. Little is known about the prevalence of liver fibrosis in the general population. The aim of the study was to investigate the prevalence of liver fibrosis in the general adult population with unknown liver disease. METHODS: This was a population-based, cross-sectional study performed in the Barcelona metropolitan area. Subjects aged 18 to 75 years old were identified randomly from citizens included in the primary health care registry. Of 4866 subjects invited, 3076 participated (63.2%). Liver fibrosis was estimated by measuring liver stiffness (LS) with transient elastography (TE). Liver histology was assessed in 92 subjects with increased LS. RESULTS: Prevalence estimates of increased LS (≥6.8, ≥8.0, and ≥9.0 kPa) were 9.0%, 5.8%, and 3.6%, respectively. The etiology of liver disease was mainly nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), followed by alcohol risk consumption (consumption of ≥21 standard drinking units/wk in men and ≥14 standard drinking units/wk in women). Factors independently associated with increased LS were male sex, abdominal obesity, type 2 diabetes, serum glucose, high-density lipoprotein, and triglyceride levels. Subjects without risk factors for NAFLD or without alcohol risk consumption had a very low prevalence of increased LS. The best cut-off value of LS for significant liver fibrosis (F2-F4) was 9.2 kPa, with high sensitivity and specificity. TE was more accurate than alanine aminotransferase, NAFLD fibrosis score, or Fibrosis 4. An algorithm for screening for liver fibrosis using TE in the community setting is proposed. CONCLUSIONS: These findings show a high prevalence of silent liver disease with advanced fibrosis mainly related to NAFLD in adult European subjects without known liver disease. An LS value less than 9.2 kPa predicts the absence of significant liver fibrosis with high accuracy and could be used for screening purposes.

Consensus document. Management of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Clinical practice guideline. / Documento de consenso. Manejo de la enfermedad hepática grasa no alcohólica (EHGNA). Guía de práctica clínica.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the main cause of liver diseases in Spain and the incidence is raising due to the outbreak of type 2 diabetes and obesity. This CPG suggests recommendation about diagnosis, mainly non-invasive biomarkers, and clinical management of this entity. Life-style modifications to achieve weight loss is the main target in the management of NAFLD. Low caloric Mediterranean diet and 200 minutes/week of aerobic exercise are encouraged. In non-responders patients with morbid obesity, bariatric surgery or metabolic endoscopy could be indicated. Pharmacological therapy is indicated in patients with NASH and fibrosis and non-responders to weight loss measures. NAFLD could influence liver transplantation, as a growing indication, the impact of steatosis in the graft viability, de novo NAFLD rate after OLT and a raised cardiovascular risk that modify the management of this entity. The current CPG was the result of the First Spanish NAFLD meeting in Seville.

Thyroid Dysfunction in Primary Biliary Cholangitis: A Comparative Study at Two European Centers.

OBJECTIVES: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is often associated with other autoimmune diseases, but little is known about the influence of thyroid disease (TD) on the natural history of PBC. Our aim is to analyze the association between PBC and TD, and the latter's impact on the natural history of PBC at two European centers. METHODS: The study involved 921 PBC patients enrolled between 1975 and 2015 in Padova (376 patients) and Barcelona (545 patients), with a mean follow-up of 126.9±91.7 months. Data were recorded on patients' histological stage at diagnosis, biochemical data, associated extrahepatic autoimmune conditions, and clinical events, including hepatic decompensation. RESULTS: A total of 150 patients (16.3%) had TD, including 94 patients (10.2%) with Hashimoto's thyroiditis; 15 (1.6%) with Graves' disease; 22 (2.4%) with multinodular goiter; 7 (0.8%) with thyroid cancer; and 12 (1.3%) with other thyroid conditions. The prevalence of different types of TD was similar in Padova and Barcelona, except for Graves' disease and thyroid cancer, which were more frequent in the Padova cohort (15.7 vs. 5.0%, and 8.6 vs. 1.3%, respectively, P<0.05). Overall, there were no differences between PBC patients with and without TD in terms of their histological stage at diagnosis, hepatic decompensation events, occurrence of HCC, or liver transplantation rate. The presence of associated TD was not associated with lower survival for PBC patients in either cohort. CONCLUSIONS: TDs, and autoimmune TD like Hashimoto's thyroiditis in particular, are often associated with PBC, but the presence of TD does not influence the rate of hepatic complications or the natural history of PBC.

Stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in primary biliary cirrhosis: a multicentre international study.

OBJECTIVE: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an infrequent yet critical event in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC); however, predictive tools remain ill-defined. Our objective was to identify candidate risk factors for HCC development in patients with PBC. DESIGN: Risk factor analysis was performed in over 15 centres from North America and Europe spanning >40 years observation period using Cox proportional hazards assumptions, logistic regression, and Kaplan-Meier estimates. RESULTS: Of 4565 patients with PBC 123 developed HCC, yielding an incidence rate (IR) of 3.4 cases/1000 patient-years. HCC was significantly more common in men (p<0.0001), and on univariate analysis factors at PBC diagnosis associated with future HCC development were male sex (unadjusted HR 2.91, p<0.0001), elevated serum aspartate transaminase (HR 1.24, p<0.0001), advanced disease (HR 2.72, p=0.022), thrombocytopenia (HR 1.65, p<0.0001), and hepatic decompensation (HR 9.89, p<0.0001). As such, non-treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid itself was not associated with cancer development; however, 12-month stratification by biochemical non-response (Paris-I criteria) associated significantly with future risk of HCC (HR 4.52, p<0.0001; IR 6.6 vs 1.4, p<0.0001). Non-response predicted future risk in patients with early stage disease (IR 4.7 vs 1.2, p=0.005), advanced disease (HR 2.79, p=0.02; IR 11.2 vs 4.4, p=0.033), and when restricting the analysis to only male patients (HR 4.44, p<0.001; IR 18.2 vs 5.4, p<0.001). On multivariable analysis biochemical non-response remained the most significant factor predictive of future HCC risk (adjusted HR 3.44, p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This uniquely powered, internationally representative cohort robustly demonstrates that 12-month biochemical non-response is associated with increased future risk of developing HCC in PBC. Such risk stratification is relevant to patient care and development of new therapies.

Development and Validation of a Scoring System to Predict Outcomes of Patients With Primary Biliary Cirrhosis Receiving Ursodeoxycholic Acid Therapy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Approaches to risk stratification for patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) are limited, single-center based, and often dichotomous. We aimed to develop and validate a better model for determining prognoses of patients with PBC. METHODS: We performed an international, multicenter meta-analysis of 4119 patients with PBC treated with ursodeoxycholic acid at liver centers in 8 European and North American countries. Patients were randomly assigned to derivation (n = 2488 [60%]) and validation cohorts (n = 1631 [40%]). A risk score (GLOBE score) to predict transplantation-free survival was developed and validated with univariate and multivariable Cox regression analyses using clinical and biochemical variables obtained after 1 year of ursodeoxycholic acid therapy. Risk score outcomes were compared with the survival of age-, sex-, and calendar time-matched members of the general population. The prognostic ability of the GLOBE score was evaluated alongside those of the Barcelona, Paris-1, Rotterdam, Toronto, and Paris-2 criteria. RESULTS: Age (hazard ratio = 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.06; P < .0001); levels of bilirubin (hazard ratio = 2.56; 95% CI: 2.22-2.95; P < .0001), albumin (hazard ratio = 0.10; 95% CI: 0.05-0.24; P < .0001), and alkaline phosphatase (hazard ratio = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.18-1.67; P = .0002); and platelet count (hazard ratio/10 units decrease = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.96-0.99; P < .0001) were all independently associated with death or liver transplantation (C-statistic derivation, 0.81; 95% CI: 0.79-0.83, and validation cohort, 0.82; 95% CI: 0.79-0.84). Patients with risk scores >0.30 had significantly shorter times of transplant-free survival than matched healthy individuals (P < .0001). The GLOBE score identified patients who would survive for 5 years and 10 years (responders) with positive predictive values of 98% and 88%, respectively. Up to 22% and 21% of events and nonevents, respectively, 10 years after initiation of treatment were correctly reclassified in comparison with earlier proposed criteria. In subgroups of patients aged <45, 45-52, 52-58, 58-66, and ≥66 years, age-specific GLOBE-score thresholds beyond which survival significantly deviated from matched healthy individuals were -0.52, 0.01, 0.60, 1.01 and 1.69, respectively. Transplant-free survival could still be accurately calculated by the GLOBE score with laboratory values collected at 2-5 years after treatment. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated scoring system (the GLOBE score) to predict transplant-free survival of ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients with PBC. This score might be used to select strategies for treatment and care.

[Acceptability and quality of abdominal ultrasound studies requested by medical professionals]. / Adecuación y calidad de las ecografías abdominales solicitadas por los profesionales de medicina.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the acceptability/quality of abdominal ultrasound studies requested by primary care physicians in Barcelona; to develop ultrasound guidelines and assess their impact on acceptability. DESIGN: 2-phase study, one retrospective, descriptive phase evaluating the acceptability/quality of requests (pre-intervention phase) and another to assess the impact of guidelines on acceptability/quality (post-intervention phase). SUBJECTS: Requests for ultrasound studies from January-June 2010 from 10 primary care centers and the same number of requests from the same centers after the intervention. VARIABLES: Pre-intervention phase: reason for consultation and request; presence of diagnostic orientation; results of ultrasound; acceptability/quality of the request. INTERVENTION: design guidelines using the nominal group technique, dissemination of guidelines in the same centers. Post-intervention phase: three months after dissemination analyze the same number of requests assessing the same variables included in the pre-intervention phase. RESULTS: Pre-intervention phase: 1,063 requests, 52.4% women, mean age 52±16years (range 11-94). Post-intervention phase: 1,060 requests, 57.6% women, mean age 54±17years (range 6-91). Main reasons for requests: abdominal pain/discomfort 38.3% (pre-intervention) and 43.1% (post-intervention). Diagnostic orientation in 14.5% (pre-intervention) and 40.8% (post-intervention). Normal ultrasound results in 46.0% (pre-intervention) and 42.3% (post-intervention). Good quality of requests in 42.7% (pre-intervention) and 46.5% (post-intervention). Acceptability of ultrasound: 70.5% (pre-intervention) and 94.1% (post-intervention). The better the quality of the request, the better the acceptability of the studies and the greater the number of pathological conditions identified. CONCLUSIONS: Guidelines for ultrasound improve the quality of requests, diagnostic orientation and acceptability of the studies.

Levels of alkaline phosphatase and bilirubin are surrogate end points of outcomes of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis: an international follow-up study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Noninvasive surrogate end points of long-term outcomes of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) are needed to monitor disease progression and evaluate potential treatments. We performed a meta-analysis of individual patient data from cohort studies to evaluate whether patients' levels of alkaline phosphatase and bilirubin correlate with their outcomes and can be used as surrogate end points. METHODS: We performed a meta-analysis of data from 4845 patients included in 15 North American and European long-term follow-up cohort studies. Levels of alkaline phosphatase and bilirubin were analyzed in different settings and subpopulations at different time points relative to the clinical end point (liver transplantation or death). RESULTS: Of the 4845 patients, 1118 reached a clinical end point. The median follow-up period was 7.3 years; 77% survived for 10 years after study enrollment. Levels of alkaline phosphatase and bilirubin measured at study enrollment (baseline) and each year for 5 years were strongly associated with clinical outcomes (lower levels were associated with longer transplant-free survival). At 1 year after study enrollment, levels of alkaline phosphatase that were 2.0 times the upper limit of normal (ULN) best predicted patient outcome (C statistic, 0.71) but not significantly better than other thresholds. Of patients with alkaline phosphatase levels ≤ 2.0 times the ULN, 84% survived for 10 years compared with 62% of those with levels >2.0 times the ULN (P < .0001). Absolute levels of alkaline phosphatase 1 year after study enrollment predicted patient outcomes better than percentage change in level. One year after study enrollment, a bilirubin level 1.0 times the ULN best predicted patient transplant-free survival (C statistic, 0.79). Of patients with bilirubin levels ≤ 1.0 times the ULN, 86% survived for 10 years after study enrollment compared with 41% of those with levels >1.0 times the ULN (P < .0001). Combining levels of alkaline phosphatase and bilirubin increased the ability to predict patient survival times. We confirmed the predictive value of alkaline phosphatase and bilirubin levels in multiple subgroups, such as patients who had not received treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid, and at different time points after study enrollment. CONCLUSIONS: Levels of alkaline phosphatase and bilirubin can predict outcomes (liver transplantation or death) of patients with PBC and might be used as surrogate end points in therapy trials.

[Non-invasive markers of fibrosis in the diagnosis of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease]. / Marcadores no invasivos de fibrosis en el diagnóstico del hígado graso no alcohólico.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the utility of three indices to predict hepatic fibrosis in the detection of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) as a non-invasive method in primary care. DESIGN: We performed a descriptive, cross-sectional, multicenter study with a populational base from 25 primary care centers in the province of Barcelona. PARTICIPANTS: Healthy individuals aged 17 to 83 years randomly selected from the Primary Care Computer System. METHODS: Medical history, physical examination, and blood analyses were used to determine the following predictive indices of fibrosis; HAIR (hypertension, alanine-aminotransferase, insulin resistance); Fatty Liver Index (FLI) (body mass index, gammaglutamyl-transpeptidase, triglycerides, abdominal perimeter) and Lipid Accumulation Product (LAP) (triglycerides, abdominal perimeter), and abdominal echography. RESULTS: We included 702 individuals; 58% were women and the mean age was 53±14 years. The FLI was positive in 30.8%, HAIR was positive in 6.7%, and LAP was positive in 15.5%. Agreement among the three indices ranged from 63.1% to 84.9%, with kappa indices between 0.18 and 0.50. A total of 184 individuals met the echographic criteria of NAFLD, representing a prevalence of 26.29%. The prevalence of NAFLD in patients with positive FLI, HAIR and LAP indices was 46.8%, 68.1% and 56%, respectively. The index with the greatest sensitivity for NAFLD was tFLI≥60 with 84%. Specificity was highest for HAIR and LAP with 97% and 91%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: FLI, HAIR and LAP are highly prevalent and have been shown to be independent markers for the diagnosis of NAFLD. Because of the lack of concordance between the indices, different prevalences are obtained, thus requiring criteria to be unified in order to obtain a more useful index for the diagnosis of NAFLD.

Using transient elastography to detect chronic liver diseases in a primary care nurse consultancy.

BACKGROUND: Chronic liver diseases (CLDs) are significant causes of death in adults in many countries and are usually diagnosed at late stages. Early detection may allow time for treatment to prevent disease progression. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility of screening for unrecognized CLDs in a primary care nurse consultancy and report findings from screening. METHODS: Two experienced nurses in a primary care nurse consultancy were trained to perform transient elastography (TE). Subjects aged from 18 to 70 years were identified randomly from the health registry and invited to participate in a feasibility pilot study. Exclusion criteria were past or current history of liver diseases. Nurses collected demographic and clinical data and performed TE tests using Fibroscan to measure liver stiffness; a cutoff score of 6.8 kPa or greater was used as an indicator of the presence of CLD with fibrosis. RESULTS: Accurate measurements were obtained in 495 of 502 participants (98.6%). Prevalence of elevated liver stiffness was observed in 28 of 495 subjects (5.7%). Compared to patients with normal liver stiffness, patients with increased liver stiffness were older, were more frequently male, and had higher frequency of metabolic syndrome. Nonalcoholic fatty liver was the most common cause of CLD. DISCUSSION: Following training in procedures for conducting TE, nurses in a primary care clinic were able to detect unrecognized CLDs in presumably healthy subjects. Early detection of CLDs is feasible in primary care clinics and may facilitate identification of undiagnosed CLD in adults.