Risk of liver-related events in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) patients with fibrosis: A comparative analysis of various risk stratification criteria.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: International regulatory agencies recommend testing drug therapy for patients with noncirrhotic high-risk metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) because they are at risk of liver-related events (LRE). We aimed to compare the risk of LRE in patients with MASLD stratified for F2-F4 fibrosis and MASH. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Overall, 1938 consecutive patients with biopsy-proven MASLD were enrolled. High-risk MASH was defined as MASH with F2-F4 fibrosis. LSM was measured by transient elastography. LRE were recorded during follow-up. Cox multivariate models were used to assess the association between high-risk MASH or F2-F4 fibrosis without MASH, of LSM (≥8 or ≥10 Kpa), and of AGILE 3+ with LRE. The diagnostic performance for the prediction of LRE was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves. The observed 5-year actuarial rate of LRE was 0.4%, 0.2%, 5.1%, and 6.6% in patients with F0-F1 fibrosis without MASH, F0-F1 fibrosis with MASH, F2-F4 fibrosis without MASH, and high-risk MASH, respectively. At multivariate Cox regression analysis using F0-F1 fibrosis without MASH as a reference, both F2-F4 fibrosis without MASH [adjusted HR (aHR) 9.96] and high-risk MASH (aHR 10.14) were associated with LRE. In the 1074 patients with available LSM, LSM ≥ 10 kPa (aHR 6.31) or AGILE 3+ > 0.67 (aHR 27.45) independently predicted the development of LRE and had similarly acceptable 5-year area under the receiver operating characteristic to high-risk MASH and F2-F4 fibrosis (0.772, 0.818, 0.739, and 0.780, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of LRE is similar in patients with high-risk MASH and with F2-F4 fibrosis without MASH. The use of LSM ≥ 10 kPa or AGILE 3+ > 0.67 could be an accurate option to identify patients with MASLD worthy to be included in clinical trials.

Navigating the landscape of liver cancer management: Study designs in clinical trials and clinical practice.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fourth leading cause of cancer death worldwide and its prognosis is highly heterogeneous, being related not only to tumour burden but also to the severity of underlying chronic liver disease. Moreover, advances in systemic therapies for HCC have increased the complexity of patient management. Randomised-controlled trials represent the gold standard for evidence generation across all areas of medicine and especially in the oncology field, as they allow for unbiased estimates of treatment effect without confounders. Observational studies have many problems that could reduce their internal and external validity. However, large prospective (well-conducted) observational real-world studies can detect rare adverse events or monitor the occurrence of long-term adverse events. How best to harness real world data, which refers to data generated from the routine care of patients, and real-world 'evidence', which is the evidence generated from real-world data, represents an open challenge. In this review article, we aim to provide an overview of the benefits and limitations of different study designs, particularly focusing on randomised-controlled trials and observational studies, to address important and not fully resolved questions in HCC research.

Mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in older adult patients with cirrhosis: A validated prediction model.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Implantation of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) improves survival in patients with cirrhosis with refractory ascites and portal hypertensive bleeding. However, the indication for TIPS in older adult patients (greater than or equal to 70 years) is debated, and a specific prediction model developed in this particular setting is lacking. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a multivariable model for an accurate prediction of mortality in older adults. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We prospectively enrolled 411 consecutive patients observed at four referral centers with de novo TIPS implantation for refractory ascites or secondary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding (derivation cohort) and an external cohort of 415 patients with similar indications for TIPS (validation cohort). Older adult patients in the two cohorts were 99 and 76, respectively. A cause-specific Cox competing risks model was used to predict liver-related mortality, with orthotopic liver transplant and death for extrahepatic causes as competing events. Age, alcoholic etiology, creatinine levels, and international normalized ratio in the overall cohort, and creatinine and sodium levels in older adults were independent risk factors for liver-related death by multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: After TIPS implantation, mortality is increased by aging, but TIPS placement should not be precluded in patients older than 70 years. In older adults, creatinine and sodium levels are useful predictors for decision making. Further efforts to update the prediction model with larger sample size are warranted.

Noninvasive assessment of liver disease severity in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of simple, noninvasive tests (NITs) in NAFLD patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS AND RESULTS: This was an individual patient data meta-analysis of 1780 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD and T2D. The index tests of interest were FIB-4, NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography, and AGILE 3+. The target conditions were advanced fibrosis, NASH, and fibrotic NASH(NASH plus F2-F4 fibrosis). The diagnostic performance of noninvasive tests. individually or in sequential combination, was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and by decision curve analysis. Comparison with 2278 NAFLD patients without T2D was also made. In NAFLD with T2D LSM and AGILE 3+ outperformed, both NFS and FIB-4 for advanced fibrosis (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve:LSM 0.82, AGILE 3+ 0.82, NFS 0.72, FIB-4 0.75, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index 0.68; p < 0.001 of LSM-based versus simple serum tests), with an uncertainty area of 12%-20%. The combination of serum-based with LSM-based tests for advanced fibrosis led to a reduction of 40%-60% in necessary LSM tests. Decision curve analysis showed that all scores had a modest net benefit for ruling out advanced fibrosis at the risk threshold of 5%-10% of missing advanced fibrosis. LSM and AGILE 3+ outperformed both NFS and FIB-4 for fibrotic NASH (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve:LSM 0.79, AGILE 3+ 0.77, NFS 0.71, FIB-4 0.71; p < 0.001 of LSM-based versus simple serum tests). All noninvasive scores were suboptimal for diagnosing NASH. CONCLUSIONS: LSM and AGILE 3+ individually or in low availability settings in sequential combination after FIB-4 or NFS have a similar good diagnostic accuracy for advanced fibrosis and an acceptable diagnostic accuracy for fibrotic NASH in NAFLD patients with T2D.

Correlation between endoscopic ultrasound features and exocrine pancreatic function in chronic pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) is the most sensitive method for diagnosing chronic pancreatitis (CP) in its early stages, and Rosemont Classification (RC) is used for its evaluation. Data on the correlation between EUS features and pancreatic exocrine insufficiency (PEI) are limited. We investigated the correlation between the EUS findings and PEI. METHODS: This was a retrospective, monocentric cohort study involving patients prospectively enrolled from 2018 to 2022, with definite or probable CP according to the M-ANNHEIM criteria. All the patients underwent EUS and exocrine function investigations within 12 months of diagnosis. PEI was diagnosed using fecal elastase (FE) or when overt steatorrhea was reversed by pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy. Logistic regression analyses, rank correlation, ROC curve, and area under the curve (AUROC) were performed to evaluate the association between EUS features and PEI, and the accuracy of RC in predicting PEI. RESULTS: Among 128 patients examined (63.3 % male; mean age, 47 years), 69.5 % were diagnosed with PEI. In multivariate logistic regression among all the RC criteria, only lithiasis in the main pancreatic duct (MPD) was associated with increased risk of PEI (OR 2.92, 95 % CI 1.29-6.61; p = 0.01). Rank analysis showed a weak inverse correlation between RC and FE (Spearman's rho = -0.02; p = 0.03). The accuracy of RC was moderate (AUROC 0.62, p = 0.014). CONCLUSIONS: Among RC EUS features, lithiasis in the MPD is helpful for predicting the risk of PEI, while other findings are of limited utility in evaluating exocrine function.

Clinical outcomes of MAFLD versus NAFLD: A meta-analysis of observational studies.

IMPORTANCE: The recent change in terminology from nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) to metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) highlights the link between hepatic steatosis and metabolic dysfunction, taking out the stigmata of alcohol. OBJECTIVE: We compared the effects of NAFLD and MAFLD definitions on the risk of overall and cardiovascular (CV) mortality, liver-related events (LRE), nonfatal CV events (CVE), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and extra-hepatic cancers (EHC). DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: We systematically searched four large electronic databases for cohort studies (published through August 2023) that simultaneously used NAFLD and MAFLD definitions for examining the risk of mortality and adverse CV, renal, or oncological outcomes associated with both definitions. In total, 21 eligible cohort studies were identified. Meta-analysis was performed using random-effects modelling. RESULTS: Compared with those with NAFLD, individuals with MAFLD had significantly higher rates of overall mortality (random-effect OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.04-1.21, p = .004) and CV mortality (random-effect OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.04-1.26, p = .004), and a marginal trend towards higher rates of developing CKD (random-effect OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.12, p = .058) and EHC events (random-effect OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.00-1.23, p = .052). We found no significant differences in the risk LREs and nonfatal CVE between MAFLD and NAFLD. Meta-regression analyses identified male sex and metabolic comorbidities as the strongest risk factors related to the risk of adverse clinical outcomes in MAFLD compared to NAFLD. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Individuals with MAFLD have higher rates of overall and CV mortality and higher rates of developing CKD and EHC events than those with NAFLD, possibly due to the dysmetabolic risk profile related to MAFLD.

What is the benefit of prophylaxis to prevent HBV reactivation in HBsAg-negative anti-HBc-positive patients? Meta-analysis and decision curve analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with overt or occult hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection receiving immunosuppressive treatments have a wide risk of HBV reactivation (HBVr). We performed meta-analysis with decision curve analyses (DCA) to estimate the risk of HBVr in HBsAg-negative anti-HBc-positive patients naïve to nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) receiving immunosuppressive treatments. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Studies were identified through literature search until October 2022. Pooled estimates were obtained using random-effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed according to underlying disease and immunosuppressive treatments. DCA was used to identify the threshold probability associated with the net benefit of antiviral prophylaxis in HBsAg-negative anti-HBc-positive patients. We selected 68 studies (40 retrospective and 28 prospective), including 8034 patients with HBsAg negative anti-HBc positive. HBVr was 4% (95% CI 3%-6%) in HBsAg-negative anti-HBc-positive patients, with a significantly high heterogeneity (I2 69%; p < .01). The number-needed-to-treat (NNT) by DCA ranged from 8 to 24 for chemotherapy plus rituximab, from 12 to 24 for targeted therapies in cancer patients and from 13 to 39 for immune-mediated diseases. Net benefit was small for monoclonal antibodies. CONCLUSIONS: Our DCA in HBsAg-negative anti-HBc-positive patients provided evidence that NA prophylaxis is strongly recommended in patients treated with chemotherapy combined with rituximab and could be appropriate in patients with cancer treated with targeted therapies and in patients with immune-mediated diseases. Finally, in patients with cancer treated with monoclonal antibodies or with chemotherapy without rituximab, the net benefit is even lower.

AGILE 3+ Score for the Diagnosis of Advanced Fibrosis and for Predicting Liver-related Events in NAFLD.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of AGILE 3+, a recently developed score based on the combination of aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, platelet count, diabetes status, sex, age, and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography, when compared with Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and LSM, for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis and for the prediction of liver-related events (LREs) occurrence in patients with NAFLD. METHODS: A total of 614 consecutive patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD or clinical diagnosis of NAFLD-related compensated cirrhosis were enrolled. LREs were recorded during follow-up. FIB-4, LSM by transient elastography (FibroScan device), and AGILE 3+ were measured. The diagnostic performance of noninvasive criteria for advanced fibrosis and for the prediction of LREs was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: In patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD (n = 520), LSM and AGILE 3+ had higher AUROC than FIB-4 (0.88 for LSM and AGILE 3+ vs 0.78 for FIB-4; P < .001) for advanced fibrosis, and AGILE 3+ exhibited a smaller indeterminate area in the test (25.2% for FIB-4 vs 13.1% for LSM vs 8.3% for AGILE 3+). Within the entire cohort of patients, AGILE 3+ had significantly higher AUROC for predicting LREs with respect to LSM (AUROC 36 months 0.95 vs 0.93; P =.008; 60 months 0.95 vs 0.92; P = .006; 96 months 0.97 vs 0.95; P = .001). Decision curve analysis showed that all scores had modest net benefit for ruling-out advanced fibrosis at the risk threshold of 5% to 10% where advanced fibrosis was absent. At the risk threshold of 5% of false negatives or false positives in LRE at 36, 60, 96, and 120 months, AGILE 3+ outperformed both FIB-4 and LSM for ruling out LRE. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on resource availability, clinical setting, and the risk scenarios, AGILE 3+ is an accurate and valid alternative to FIB-4 and LSM for the noninvasive assessment of disease severity and prognosis in patients with NAFLD.

Point-of-Care Noninvasive Prediction of Liver-Related Events in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Individual risk prediction of liver-related events (LRE) is needed for clinical assessment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) patients. We aimed to provide point-of-care validated liver stiffness measurement (LSM)-based risk prediction models for the development of LRE in patients with NAFLD, focusing on selecting patients for clinical trials at risk of clinical events. METHODS: Two large multicenter cohorts were evaluated, 2638 NAFLD patients covering all LSM values as the derivation cohort and 679 more advanced patients as the validation cohort. We used Cox regression to develop and validate risk prediction models based on LSM alone, and the ANTICIPATE and ANTICIPATE-NASH models for clinically significant portal hypertension. The main outcome of the study was the rate of LRE in the first 3 years after initial assessment. RESULTS: The 3 predictive models had similar performance in the derivation cohort with a very high discriminative value (c-statistic, 0.87-0.91). In the validation cohort, the LSM-LRE alone model had a significant inferior discrimination (c-statistic, 0.75) compared with the other 2 models, whereas the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model (0.81) was significantly better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model (0.79). In addition, the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model presented very good calibration in the validation cohort (integrated calibration index, 0.016), and was better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model. CONCLUSIONS: The ANTICIPATE-LRE models, and especially the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model, could be valuable validated clinical tools to individually assess the risk of LRE at 3 years in patients with NAFLD/NASH.

Programmed cell death 1 genetic variant and liver damage in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Programmed cell death 1/programmed cell death-ligand 1 (PD-1/PDL-1) axis has been reported to modulate liver inflammation and progression to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Here, we examined whether the PDCD1 variation is associated with NAFLD severity in individuals with liver biopsy. METHODS: We examined the impact of PDCD1 gene variants on HCC, as robust severe liver disease phenotype in UK Biobank participants. The strongest genetic association with the rs13023138 G>C variation was subsequently tested for association with liver damage in 2889 individuals who underwent liver biopsy for suspected nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Hepatic transcriptome was examined by RNA-Seq in a subset of NAFLD individuals (n = 121). Transcriptomic and deconvolution analyses were performed to identify biological pathways modulated by the risk allele. RESULTS: The rs13023138 C>G showed the most robust association with HCC in UK Biobank (p = 5.28E-4, OR = 1.32, 95% CI [1.1, 1.5]). In the liver biopsy cohort, rs13023138 G allele was independently associated with severe steatosis (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.34; p = .01), NASH (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.09-1.37; p < .001) and advanced fibrosis (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.06-1.50; p = .007). At deconvolution analysis, rs13023138 G>C allele was linked to higher hepatic representation of M1 macrophages, paralleled by upregulation of pathways related to inflammation and higher expression of CXCR6. CONCLUSIONS: The PDCD1 rs13023138 G allele was associated with HCC development in the general population and with liver disease severity in patients at high risk of NASH.

Hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after direct-acting antiviral therapy: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The benefit of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) against HCV following successful treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. This meta-analysis of individual patient data assessed HCC recurrence risk following DAA administration. DESIGN: We pooled the data of 977 consecutive patients from 21 studies of HCV-related cirrhosis and HCC, who achieved complete radiological response after surgical/locoregional treatments and received DAAs (DAA group). Recurrence or death risk was expressed as HCC recurrence or death per 100 person-years (100PY). Propensity score-matched patients from the ITA.LI.CA. cohort (n=328) served as DAA-unexposed controls (no-DAA group). Risk factors for HCC recurrence were identified using random-effects Poisson. RESULTS: Recurrence rate and death risk per 100PY in DAA-treated patients were 20 (95% CI 13.9 to 29.8, I2=74.6%) and 5.7 (2.5 to 15.3, I2=54.3), respectively. Predictive factors for recurrence were alpha-fetoprotein logarithm (relative risk (RR)=1.11, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.19; p=0.01, per 1 log of ng/mL), HCC recurrence history pre-DAA initiation (RR=1.11, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.16; p<0.001), performance status (2 vs 0, RR=4.35, 95% CI 1.54 to 11.11; 2 vs 1, RR=3.7, 95% CI 1.3 to 11.11; p=0.01) and tumour burden pre-HCC treatment (multifocal vs solitary nodule, RR=1.75, 95% CI 1.25 to 2.43; p<0.001). No significant difference was observed in RR between the DAA-exposed and DAA-unexposed groups in propensity score-matched patients (RR=0.64, 95% CI 0.37 to 1.1; p=0.1). CONCLUSION: Effects of DAA exposure on HCC recurrence risk remain inconclusive. Active clinical and radiological follow-up of patients with HCC after HCV eradication with DAA is justified.

RESIST-HCV Criteria to Monitor Progression of Low-Risk Esophageal Varices in Patients With Compensated Cirrhosis After HCV Eradication: The SIMPLE Study: SIMPLE: Scoring Index to Monitor Progression of Low-risk Esophageal varices.

INTRODUCTION: Noninvasive criteria to predict the progression of low-risk esophageal varices (EV) in patients with compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis after sustained virological response (SVR) by direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are lacking. Our aim was to assess the diagnostic performance of Rete Sicilia Selezione Terapia-HCV (RESIST-HCV) criteria for EV progression compared with elastography-based criteria (Baveno VI, Expanded Baveno VI, and Baveno VII-HCV criteria). METHODS: All consecutive patients observed at 3 referral centers with compensated HCV cirrhosis with or without F1 EV who achieved sustained virological response by DAAs were classified at last esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGDS) as RESIST-HCV low risk (i.e., low probability of high-risk varices [HRV]) if platelets were >120 × 10 9 /L and serum albumin >3.6 g/dL or RESIST-HCV high risk (i.e., high probability of HRV) if platelets were <120 × 10 9 /L or serum albumin <3.6 g/dL. The primary outcome was the progression to HRV. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analysis of noninvasive criteria were calculated. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 353 patients in Child-Pugh class A (mean age 67.2 years, 53.8% males). During a mean follow-up of 44.2 months, 34 patients (9.6%, 95% CI 6.7%-13.5%) developed HRV. At the last EGDS, 178 patients (50.4%) were RESIST-low risk, and 175 (49.6%) were RESIST-high risk. RESIST-HCV criteria showed the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.65-0.75), correctly sparing the highest number of EGDS (54.3%), with the lowest false-positive rate (45.7%), compared with elastography-based criteria. Decision curve analysis showed that RESIST-HCV had higher clinical utility than elastography-based criteria. DISCUSSION: Biochemical-based RESIST-HCV criteria are useful to easily predict HRV development after HCV eradication by DAAs in patients with compensated cirrhosis and low-risk EV.

A cholestatic pattern predicts major liver-related outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: NAFLD patients usually have an increase in AST/ALT levels, but cholestasis can also be observed. We aimed to assess in subjects with NAFLD the impact of the (cholestatic) C pattern on the likelihood of developing major liver-related outcomes (MALO). METHODS: Five hundred and eighty-two consecutive patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD or a clinical diagnosis of NAFLD-related compensated cirrhosis were classified as hepatocellular (H), C and mixed (M) patterns, by using the formula (ALT/ALT Upper Limit of Normal-ULN)/(ALP/ALP ULN). MALO were recorded during follow-up. An external cohort of 1281 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients was enrolled as validation set. RESULTS: H, M and C patterns were found in 153 (26.3%), 272 (46.7%) and 157 (27%) patients respectively. During a median follow-up of 78 months, only 1 (0.6%) patient with H pattern experienced MALO, whilst 15 (5.5%) and 38 (24.2%) patients in M and C groups had MALO. At multivariate Cox regression analysis, age >55 years (HR 2.55, 95% CI 1.17-5.54; p = .01), platelets <150 000/mmc (HR 0.14, 95% CI 0.06-0.32; p < .001), albumin <4 g/L(HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.35-1.08; p = .09), C versus M pattern (HR 7.86, 95% CI 1.03-60.1; p = .04), C versus H pattern(HR 12.1, 95% CI 1.61-90.9; p = .01) and fibrosis F3-F4(HR 35.8, 95% CI 4.65-275.2; p < .001) were independent risk factors for MALO occurrence. C versus M pattern(HR 14.3, 95% CI 1.90-105.6; p = .008) and C versus H pattern (HR 15.6, 95% CI 2.10-115.1; p = .0068) were confirmed independently associated with MALO occurrence in the validation set. The immunohistochemical analysis found a significantly higher prevalence of moderate-high-grade ductular metaplasia combined with low-grade ductular proliferation in C pattern when compared with the biochemical H pattern. Gene expression analysis showed a lower expression of NR1H3, RXRα and VCAM1 in patients with the C pattern. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of a cholestatic pattern in patients with NAFLD predicts a higher risk of MALO independently from other features of liver disease.

Effect of pharmacological interventions and placebo on liver Histology in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis: A network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The aims of this study were to quantify the histological improvement and its risk factors in patients with NASH enrolled in the placebo arms of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), and to indirectly compare the effect of several investigational drugs for NASH on validated histological outcomes. DATA SYNTHESIS: A comprehensive search was conducted to detect phase 2 and 3 RCTs comparing pharmacological interventions in patients with NASH. According to Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommendations, primary outcomes included: 1) NASH resolution without worsening of fibrosis; 2) At least 1-point reduction in fibrosis without worsening of NASH. Meta-analysis and meta-regressions were conducted on placebo arms, while network meta-analysis was performed on intervention arms. A total of 15 RCTs met the eligibility criteria. The meta-analysis on placebo arms showed a pooled estimate rate of 17% (95%C.I. 12%-23%;I2 = 86%; p < 0.01) for NASH resolution without worsening of fibrosis and of 21% (95%C.I. 13%-31%;I2 = 84%; p < 0.01) for ≥1stage improvement of fibrosis without worsening of NASH. Phase 3 (vs Phase 2)RCTs, older age and higher AST levels were significantly associated with progression of liver disease by univariate meta-regression. At network meta-analysis, Semaglutide (P-score 0.906), Pioglitazione alone (score 0.890) and plus Vitamin E (0.826) had the highest probability of being ranked the most effective intervention for NASH resolution without worsening of fibrosis, while Aldafermin (0.776), Lanifibranor (0.773) and Obeticholic acid (0.771) had the highest probability to achieve ≥1 stage of fibrosis improvement without worsening of NASH. CONCLUSION: This study confirms the heterogeneity of histological progression of untreated patients with NASH and provides evidence to stratify patients according to identified risk factors in future RCTs of combination therapies. PROSPERO CRD42021287205.

Direct-acting antiviral agents and risk of Hepatocellular carcinoma: Critical appraisal of the evidence.

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) revolutionized the treatment of chronic HCV-related disease achieving high rates of sustained virological response (SVR), even in advanced cirrhosis, with modest contraindications and a low rate of adverse events. However, the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists due to the underlying chronic liver disease, both in patients with and without history of HCC. Although some initial studies reported a presumptive high risk of HCC development after DAA therapy, more recent observational studies denied this hypothesis. The residual risk for HCC occurrence after HCV eradication seems being progressively reduced with time after SVR. Data on recurrence of HCC after DAA exposure in patients with previously treated carcinoma initially reported conflicting results too, this being also due to methodological issues in analysis of retrospective multicenter studies. Anyway, current evidence support the use of DAAs in HCV-HCC treated patients, without any higher risk of tumor recurrence linked to antiviral therapy. Less effort has been made to evaluate the efficacy of DAA therapy in patients with untreated active HCC and it has been questioned whether a lower rate of SVR would be obtained among patients with active HCC. Studies conducted in this perspective concluded that HCC status does not influence the likelihood to obtain SVR with DAAs, making DAAs appropriate in HCC-active patients. As far as survival is concerned, recent studies conducted in cirrhotic HCV-related early-stage HCC found that DAAs improved overall survival, a benefit probably due to the reduction of hepatic decompensation.

PNPLA3 rs738409 C>G Variant Predicts Fibrosis Progression by Noninvasive Tools in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

Liver fibrosis is the main predictor of events in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD),1 and its evolution is characterized by a nonlinear trend2,3 mostly affected by metabolic risk factors, severity of liver inflammation and steatosis, and weight loss.3 The rs738409 C>G common variant in PNPLA3 gene has been associated with severity of fibrosis and risk of liver-related events in NAFLD.4,5 Noninvasive tests as Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) are useful to rule-out advanced fibrosis and they could be reliable to predict fibrosis progression.2,6 We aimed to evaluate in patients with NAFLD whether PNPLA3 rs738409 C>G variant impacts on fibrosis progression, noninvasively assessed by FIB-4 and LSM.

Monitoring Occurrence of Liver-Related Events and Survival by Transient Elastography in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with advanced fibrosis related to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are at risk of developing hepatic and extrahepatic complications. We investigated whether, in a large cohort of patients with NAFLD and compensated advanced chronic liver disease, baseline liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) and their changes can be used to identify patients at risk for liver-related and extrahepatic events. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of consecutive patients with NAFLD (n = 1039) with a histologic diagnosis of F3-F4 fibrosis and/or LSMs>10 kPa, followed for at least 6 months, from medical centers in 6 countries. LSMs were made by FibroScan using the M or XL probe and recorded at baseline and within 1 year from the last follow-up examination. Differences between follow up and baseline LSMs were categorized as: improvement (reduction of more than 20%), stable (reduction of 20% to an increase of 20%), impairment (an increase of 20% or more). We recorded hepatic events (such as liver decompensation, ascites, encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, jaundice, or hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC]) and overall and liver-related mortality during a median follow-up time of 35 months (interquartile range, 19-63 months). RESULTS: Based on Cox regression analysis, baseline LSM was independently associated with occurrence of hepatic decompensation (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.04; P < .001), HCC (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.04; P = .003), and liver-related death (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.02-1.03; P = .005). In 533 patients with available LSMs during the follow-up period, change in LSM was independently associated with hepatic decompensation (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.05-2.51; P = .04), HCC (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.01-3.02; P = .04), overall mortality (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.11-2.69; P = .01), and liver-related mortality (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.10-3.38; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with NAFLD and compensated advanced chronic liver disease, baseline LSM and change in LSM are associated with risk of liver-related events and mortality.

Consequences of Extended Spectrum Beta-Lactamase-Producing Enterobacteriaceae and Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Carriage in Awaiting Liver Transplant Patients.

Infections in patients with cirrhosis are associated with liver-related complications (LRCs), especially in patients awaiting liver transplantation (LT). The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and extended spectrum beta-lactamase colonization on infections and LRCs for patients on the wait list and on infections after LT. We retrospectively included 250 of 483 patients with cirrhosis who were placed on the wait list for LT from December 2015 to January 2018. These patients were screened for MRSA or extended spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBLE) at the time of wait-list placement and after LT. Of the patients, 76% were male with a mean age of 57.5 ± 10 years, and the most frequent cause of liver disease was alcohol (39%). Median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was 19 (12-28). Only 1 patient was positive for MRSA; 19% of patients (n = 47) had ESBLE fecal carriage at the time of wait-list placement and 15% (n = 37) had it after LT. Infection-free survival on the wait list and after LT, according to fecal carriage status, was not statistically different between 2 groups. LRC-free survival at 6 and 12 months was significantly lower in ESBLE fecal carriage (HR, 1.6; P = 0.04). MELD score >19 (HR, 3.0; P = 0.01) and occurrence of infection during the first 3 months on the wait list (HR, 4.13; P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for LRC occurrence in the multivariate analysis. Our study is the first showing that in a cohort of patients with cirrhosis waiting for LT LRC-free survival was lower in patients with ESBLE fecal carriage but that infection-free survival was not different between the 2 groups.

Liver and cardiovascular mortality after hepatitis C virus eradication by DAA: Data from RESIST-HCV cohort.

Real-world evidence on the course of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) chronic liver disease after Sustained Virologic Response (SVR) obtained with direct-acting antiviral drugs (DAAs) are still limited, and the effects on mortality remain unclear. We evaluated the post-treatment survival of 4307 patients in the RESIST-HCV cohort (mean age 66.3 ± 11.6 years, 56.9% males, 24.7% chronic hepatitis, 66.9% Child-Pugh A cirrhosis and 8.4% Child-Pugh B cirrhosis) treated with DAAs between March 2015 and December 2016 and followed for a median of 73 weeks (range 16-152). Proportional cause-specific hazard regression for competing risks was used to evaluate the survival and to assess the predictors of liver and cardiovascular death. Overall, 94.7% of patients achieved SVR while 5.3% were HCV RNA-positive at last follow-up. Sixty-three patients (1.4%) died during the observation period. SVR was associated with a decreased risk of liver mortality (hazard ratio,HR0.09, beta -2.37, p < .001). Also, platelet count (HR 0.99, beta-0.01, p = .007) and albumin value (HR 0.26, beta -1.36 p = .001) were associated with liver mortality by competing risk analysis. SVR was associated with a reduced risk of cardiovascular mortality regardless of presence of cirrhosis (HR 0.07, beta-2.67, p < .001). Presence of diabetes (HR 3.45, beta 1.24, p = .014) and chronic kidney disease class ≥3 (HR 3.60, beta 1.28, p = 0.016) were two factors independently associated with higher risk of cardiovascular mortality. Patients with SVR to a DAA therapy have a better liver and cardiovascular survival, and the effects of HCV eradication are most evident in patients with compensated liver disease.

Efficacy of lumen-apposing metal stents or self-expandable metal stents for endoscopic ultrasound-guided choledochoduodenostomy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided biliary drainage is becoming an option for palliation of malignant biliary obstruction. Lumen-apposing metal stents (LAMS) are replacing self-expandable metal stents (SEMS). The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of LAMS and SEMS for EUS-guided choledochoduodenostomy (EUS-CDS). METHODS: A meta-analysis was performed using PRISMA protocols. Electronic databases were searched for studies on EUS-CDS. The primary outcome was clinical success. Secondary outcomes were technical success, reintervention, and adverse events. We used the random effects model with the DerSimonian-Laird estimation, and the results were depicted using forest plots. Subgroup analyses were also performed with data stratified by selected variable. RESULTS: Overall, 31 studies (820 patients) were included. The pooled rates of clinical and technical success were 93.6 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 88.6 %-96.5 %) and 94.8 % (95 %CI 90.2 %-97.3 %) for LAMS, and 91.7 % (95 %CI 88.1 %-94.2 %) and 92.7 % (95 %CI 89.9 %-94.9 %) for SEMS, respectively. The pooled rates of adverse events were 17.1 % (95 %CI 12.5 %-22.8 %) for LAMS and 18.3 % (95 %CI 14.3 %-23.0 %) for SEMS. The pooled rates of reintervention were 10.9 % (95 %CI 7.7 %-15.3 %) for LAMS and 13.9 % (95 %CI 9.6 %-19.7 %) for SEMS. Subgroup analyses confirmed these results. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis showed that LAMS and SEMS are comparable in terms of efficacy for EUS-CDS. Clinical and technical success, post-procedure adverse events, and reintervention rates were similar between LAMS and SEMS use; however, adverse events require further investigation.