Development of a prediction model for progression of coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease.

BACKGROUNDS: This study aimed to identify risk factors for the progression of coronary artery lesions (CALs) in children with Kawasaki disease (KD) and to develop a nomogram prediction model. METHODS: This is a retrospective case-control study in which the participants were categorized into three groups based on the changes of the maximum Z score (Zmax) of coronary arteries at the 1-month follow-up compared with the baseline Zmax: CALs-progressed, CALs-improved, and CALs-unchanged. RESULTS: Of total 387 patients, 65 (27%), 319 (73%), and 3 (0.7%) patients were categorized into CALs-progressed group, CALs-improved group, and CALs-unchanged group, respectively. Six independent factors associated with CALs progression were identified, including initial IVIG resistance, baseline Zmax, the number of coronary arteries involved, C-reactive protein, albumin, and soluble interleukin-2 receptor (odds ratio: 7.19, 1.51, 2.32, 1.52, 0.86, and 1.46, respectively; all P-values < 0.01). The nomogram prediction model including these six independent risk factors yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.74 to 0.86). The accuracy of this model reached 81.7% after the Monte-Carlo Bootstrapping 1000 repetitions. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram prediction model can identify children at high risk for the progression of CALs at early stages. IMPACT: Six independent factors associated with CALs progression were identified, including initial IVIG resistance, baseline Zmax, the number of coronary arteries involved, CRP, ALB, and sIL-2R. The prediction model we constructed can identify children at high risk for the progression of CALs at early stages and help clinicians make individualized treatment plans. Prospective, multi-centered studies with larger sample sizes are warranted to validate the power of this prediction model in children with KD.

Progression prediction of coronary artery lesions by echocardiography-based ultrasomics analysis in Kawasaki disease.

BACKGROUND: Echocardiography-based ultrasomics analysis aids Kawasaki disease (KD) diagnosis but its role in predicting coronary artery lesions (CALs) progression remains unknown. We aimed to develop and validate a predictive model combining echocardiogram-based ultrasomics with clinical parameters for CALs progression in KD. METHODS: Total 371 KD patients with CALs at baseline were enrolled from a retrospective cohort (cohort 1, n = 316) and a prospective cohort (cohort 2, n = 55). CALs progression was defined by increased Z scores in any coronary artery branch at the 1-month follow-up. Patients in cohort 1 were split randomly into training and validation set 1 at the ratio of 6:4, while cohort 2 comprised validation set 2. Clinical parameters and ultrasomics features at baseline were analyzed and selected for models construction. Model performance was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) in the training and two validation sets. RESULTS: At the 1-month follow-ups, 65 patients presented with CALs progression. Three clinical parameters and six ultrasomics features were selected to construct the model. The clinical-ultrasomics model exhibited a good predictive capability in the training, validation set 1 and set 2, achieving AUROCs of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.75-0.90), 0.84 (95% CI, 0.74-0.94), and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.40-0.86), respectively. Moreover, the AUPRC values and DCA of three model demonstrated that the clinical-ultrasomics model consistently outperformed both the clinical model and the ultrasomics model across all three sets, including the training set and the two validation sets. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated the effective predictive capacity of a prediction model combining echocardiogram-based ultrasomics features and clinical parameters in predicting CALs progression in KD.

Patent ductus arteriosus shunting direction and diameter predict inpatient outcomes in newborns with congenital diaphragmatic hernia.

Objective: To evaluate whether the patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) can serve as a predictive factor for inpatient outcomes in congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) patients. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 59 CDH patients at the Capital Institute of Pediatrics from January 2020 to August 2022. Echocardiography was performed at least three times: within 2-3 h after birth, pre-operatively, and post-operatively of CDH surgery. Based on the direction of the PDA shunt in the first echocardiogram, patients were classified into three groups: left-to-right shunting or closed PDA (L-R), bi-directional shunting, and right-to-left shunting (R-L). Results: The mortality rate was 15.3% (9/59), with all non-survivors having R-L shunting and group mortality of 39.1% (9/23). The direction of the PDA shunt was significantly associated with the duration of ventilation and length of hospital stay (p < 0.05). Decreased PDA diameter or pre-operative shunting direction change towards L-R or bi-directional shunting were associated with higher survival rates, while increased PDA diameter or continuous R-L shunting were associated with higher mortality rates. Pre-operative PDA shunt direction, PDA size after birth and before surgery, gestational age of diagnosis, and shortening fraction before surgery were significantly correlated with patient outcomes. The direction of the preoperative PDA shunt was the most relevant factor among these relationships (p = 0.009, OR 20.6, CI 2.2∼196.1). Conclusion: Our findings highlight the importance of monitoring changes in PDA shunt directionality and diameter in the early stage after birth, as these parameters may serve as valuable predictors of patient outcomes.

Persistent fifth aortic arch: a single-center experience, case series.

BACKGROUND: Persistent fifth aortic arch (PFAA) is an extremely rare congenital cardiovascular malformation and there is limited data in the literature. The objective of this study is to enhance our understanding and diagnosis of PFAA from echocardiography and computed tomography angiography (CTA) findings, and to evaluate the application of echocardiography in the diagnosis of PFAA. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed five cases of PFAA diagnosed from October 2016 to September 2019 at the Affiliated Children's Hospital of Capital Institute of Pediatrics. We described their diagnosis by echocardiography and CTA findings, and medical history. RESULTS: Five cases of PFAA were identified in the study. Patients aged from 3 to 48 months and weighed from 4 to 12 kg presented different clinical symptoms upon clinical examination. All the patients completed a primary echocardiographic assessment; however, the first two patients were misdiagnosed by echocardiography and was confirmed by supplemental CTA while the other three patients were directly diagnosed by echocardiography. Surgery was necessary for three patients, two of whom accepted and one refused. The other two patients only needed a follow-up assessment, which showed good results. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical manifestation of PFAA in our patient population was atypical, and their diagnosis depended on the use of echocardiography. In the case of uncertainty, the final diagnosis was confirmed by CTA. Although the nomenclature and embryonic origin of PFAA remains controversial, the accurate diagnosis of aortic arch abnormalities and associated malformations are imperative for time-sensitive treatments.

Prevention of Diabetes in Overweight/Obese Adults through Traditional Chinese Patent Medicine: Study Protocol for a Prospective Cohort Study.

Background. Early intervention in prediabetes can prevent or delay the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Traditional Chinese patent medicine (TCPM) is widely used in China to prevent T2DM. This study aims to evaluate the efficacy and safety of TCPMs for preventing T2DM. Method/Design. This study is a multicenter, cohort study with two arms. A total of 600 participants will be recruited. The participants will be divided into either intervention or control groups according to their own desire, and the exposure factor is the application of TCPMs. All participants will be encouraged to lead a healthy lifestyle, and the intervention group also used TCPMs based on syndrome differentiation. Incident diabetes and normalization of blood glucose are indexes of end point. Safety assessments and adverse event monitoring will also be conducted. The treatment duration is set for 24 weeks, and we will follow-up for another 2 years. Discussion. This trial may provide initial evidence regarding the efficacy and safety of TCPMs plus lifestyle intervention (LI) compared to LI alone for preventing T2DM and provide a comprehensive intervention plans that choose suitable TCPMs for diabetes prevention according to syndrome differentiation. Trial Registration Number. Chinese Clinical Trial Registry ID: ChiCTR1900023541, registered on 1 Jun 2019. The version identifier is 2018121702.

Chinese herbal medicine Tianqi reduces progression from impaired glucose tolerance to diabetes: a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, multicenter trial.

CONTEXT: Living in a prediabetes state significantly increases a patient's risk for both diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Tianqi capsule, containing 10 Chinese herbal medicines, is used in China for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to assess whether Tianqi prevented T2DM in subjects with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) over the course of a 12-month treatment. METHODS: Individuals with IGT were randomly allocated in a double-blind manner to receive Tianqi (n = 210) or a placebo (n = 210) for 12 months. Oral glucose tolerance tests were conducted every 3 months to assess the development of diabetes or restoration to normal glucose tolerance. All subjects received the same lifestyle education. The primary endpoint was the conversion of IGT to T2DM. Body weight and body mass index were observed. Adverse effects were monitored. RESULTS: Of the 420 enrolled subjects with IGT, 389 completed the trial (198 in the Tianqi group and 191 in the placebo group). At the end of the 12-month trial, 36 subjects in the Tianqi group (18.18%) and 56 in the placebo group (29.32%) had developed diabetes (P = .01). There was a significant difference in the number of subjects who had normal glucose tolerance at the end of the study between the Tianqi and placebo groups (n = 125, 63.13%, and n = 89, 46.60%, respectively; P = .001). Cox's proportional hazards model analysis showed that Tianqi reduced the risk of diabetes by 32.1% compared with the placebo. No severe adverse events occurred in the trial. There were no statistical differences in body weight and body mass index changes between the Tianqi group and the placebo group during the 12-month trial. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with a Tianqi capsule for 12 months significantly decreased the incidence of T2DM in subjects with IGT, and this herbal drug was safe to use.