Younger but sicker? Cohort trends in disease accumulation among middle-aged and older adults in Scotland using health-linked data from the Scottish Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: In the United Kingdom, rising prevalence of multimorbidity-the co-occurrence of two or more chronic conditions- is coinciding with stagnation in life expectancy. We investigate patterns of disease accumulation and how they vary by birth cohort, social and environmental inequalities in Scotland, a country which has long suffered from excess mortality and poorer health outcomes relative to its neighbours. METHODS: Using a dataset which links census data from 1991, 2001 and 2011 to disease registers and hospitalization data, we follow cohorts of adults aged 30-69 years for 18 years. We model physical and mental disease accumulation using linear mixed-effects models. RESULTS: Recent cohorts experience higher levels of chronic disease accumulation compared to their predecessors at the same ages. Moreover, in more recently born cohorts we observe socioeconomic status disparities emerging earlier in the life course, which widen over time and with every successive cohort. Patterns of chronic conditions are also changing, and the most common diseases suffered by later born cohorts are cancer, hypertension, asthma, drug and alcohol problems and depression. CONCLUSION: We recommend policies which target prevention of chronic disease in working age adults, considering how and why certain conditions are becoming more prevalent across time and space.

Effects of dietary and physical activity interventions on the risk of type 2 diabetes in South Asians: meta-analysis of individual participant data from randomised controlled trials.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Individuals of South Asian origin have a high risk of type 2 diabetes and of dying from a diabetes-attributable cause. Lifestyle modification intervention trials to prevent type 2 diabetes in high-risk South Asian adults have suggested more modest effects than in European-origin populations. The strength of the evidence of individual studies is limited, however. We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis of available RCTs to assess the effectiveness of lifestyle modification in South Asian populations worldwide. METHODS: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and Web of Science (to 24 September 2018) for RCTs on lifestyle modification interventions incorporating diet and/or physical activity in South Asian adults. Reviewers identified eligible studies and assessed the quality of the evidence. We obtained individual participant data on 1816 participants from all six eligible trials (four from Europe and two from India). We generated HR estimates for incident diabetes (primary outcome) and mean differences for fasting glucose, 2 h glucose, weight and waist circumference (secondary outcomes) using mixed-effect meta-analysis overall and by pre-specified subgroups. We used the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system to rate the quality of evidence of the estimates. The study is registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews ([PROSPERO] CRD42017078003). RESULTS: Incident diabetes was observed in 12.6% of participants in the intervention groups and in 20.0% of participants in the control groups. The pooled HR for diabetes incidence was 0.65 (95% CI 0.51, 0.81; I2 = 0%) in intervention compared with control groups. The absolute risk reduction was 7.4% (95% CI 4.0, 10.2), with no interactions for the pre-specified subgroups (sex, BMI, age, study duration and region where studies were performed). The quality of evidence was rated as moderate. Mean difference for lifestyle modification vs control groups for 2 h glucose was -0.34 mmol/l (95% CI -0.62, -0.07; I2 = 50%); for weight -0.75 kg (95% CI -1.34, -0.17; I2 = 71%) and for waist -1.16 cm (95% CI -2.16, -0.16; I2 = 75%). No effect was found for fasting glucose. Findings were similar across subgroups, except for weight for European vs Indian studies (-1.10 kg vs -0.08 kg, p = 0.02 for interaction). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Despite modest changes for adiposity, lifestyle modification interventions in high-risk South Asian populations resulted in a clinically important 35% relative reduction in diabetes incidence, consistent across subgroups. If implemented on a large scale, lifestyle modification interventions in high-risk South Asian populations in Europe would reduce the incidence of diabetes in these populations.

Mortality, ethnicity, and country of birth on a national scale, 2001-2013: A retrospective cohort (Scottish Health and Ethnicity Linkage Study).

BACKGROUND: Migrant and ethnic minority groups are often assumed to have poor health relative to the majority population. Few countries have the capacity to study a key indicator, mortality, by ethnicity and country of birth. We hypothesized at least 10% differences in mortality by ethnic group in Scotland that would not be wholly attenuated by adjustment for socio-economic factors or country of birth. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We linked the Scottish 2001 Census to mortality data (2001-2013) in 4.62 million people (91% of estimated population), calculating age-adjusted mortality rate ratios (RRs; multiplied by 100 as percentages) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 13 ethnic groups, with the White Scottish group as reference (ethnic group classification follows the Scottish 2001 Census). The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, education status, and household tenure were socio-economic status (SES) confounding variables and born in the UK or Republic of Ireland (UK/RoI) an interacting and confounding variable. Smoking and diabetes data were from a primary care sub-sample (about 53,000 people). Males and females in most minority groups had lower age-adjusted mortality RRs than the White Scottish group. The 95% CIs provided good evidence that the RR was more than 10% lower in the following ethnic groups: Other White British (72.3 [95% CI 64.2, 81.3] in males and 75.2 [68.0, 83.2] in females); Other White (80.8 [72.8, 89.8] in males and 76.2 [68.6, 84.7] in females); Indian (62.6 [51.6, 76.0] in males and 60.7 [50.4, 73.1] in females); Pakistani (66.1 [57.4, 76.2] in males and 73.8 [63.7, 85.5] in females); Bangladeshi males (50.7 [32.5, 79.1]); Caribbean females (57.5 [38.5, 85.9]); and Chinese (52.2 [43.7, 62.5] in males and 65.8 [55.3, 78.2] in females). The differences were diminished but not eliminated after adjusting for UK/RoI birth and SES variables. A mortality advantage was evident in all 12 minority groups for those born abroad, but in only 6/12 male groups and 5/12 female groups of those born in the UK/RoI. In the primary care sub-sample, after adjustment for age, UK/RoI born, SES, smoking, and diabetes, the RR was not lower in Indian males (114.7 [95% CI 78.3, 167.9]) and Pakistani females (103.9 [73.9, 145.9]) than in White Scottish males and females, respectively. The main limitations were the inability to include deaths abroad and the small number of deaths in some ethnic minority groups, especially for people born in the UK/RoI. CONCLUSIONS: There was relatively low mortality for many ethnic minority groups compared to the White Scottish majority. The mortality advantage was less clear in UK/RoI-born minority group offspring than in immigrants. These differences need explaining, and health-related behaviours seem important. Similar analyses are required internationally to fulfil agreed goals for monitoring, understanding, and improving health in ethnically diverse societies and to apply to health policy, especially on health inequalities and inequities.

Ethnic variations in asthma hospital admission, readmission and death: a retrospective, national cohort study of 4.62 million people in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Our previous meta-analysis found that South Asians and Blacks in the UK were at a substantially increased risk of hospital admission from asthma. These estimates were, however, derived from pooling data from a limited number of now dated studies, confined to only three very broad ethnic groups (i.e. Whites, South Asians and Blacks) and failed to take account of possible sex-related differences in outcomes within these ethnic groups. We undertook the first study investigating ethnic variations in asthma outcomes across an entire population. METHODS: This retrospective 9-year cohort study linked Scotland's hospitalisation/death records on asthma to the 2001 census (providing ethnic group). We calculated age, country of birth and Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation adjusted incident rate ratios (IRRs) for hospitalisation or death by sex for the period May 2001-2010. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for asthma readmission and subsequent asthma death. RESULTS: We were able to link data on 4.62 million people (91.8% of the Scottish population), yielding over 38 million patient-years of data, 1,845 asthma deaths, 113,795 first asthma admissions, and 107,710 readmissions (40,075 of which were for asthma). There were substantial ethnic variations in the rate of hospitalisation/death in both males and females. When compared to the reference Scottish White population, the highest age-adjusted rates were in Pakistani males (IRR = 1.59; 95% CI, 1.30-1.94) and females (IRR = 1.50; 95% CI, 1.06-2.11) and Indian males (IRR = 1.34; 95% CI, 1.16-1.54), and the lowest were seen in Chinese males (IRR = 0.62; 95% CI, 0.41-0.94) and females (IRR = 0.49; 95% CI, 0.39-0.61). CONCLUSION: There are very substantial ethnic variations in hospital admission/deaths from asthma in Scotland, with Pakistanis having the worst and Chinese having the best outcomes. Cultural factors, including self-management and health seeking behaviours, and variations in the quality of primary care provision are the most likely explanations for these differences and these now need to be formally investigated.

Ethnic Variations in Liver- and Alcohol-Related Disease Hospitalisations and Mortality: The Scottish Health and Ethnicity Linkage Study.

AIMS: Preventing alcohol-related harms, including those causing liver disease, is a public health priority in the UK, especially in Scotland, but the effects of ethnicity are not known. We assessed liver- and alcohol-related events (hospitalisations and deaths) in Scotland using self-reported measures of ethnicity. METHODS: Linking Scottish NHS hospital admissions and mortality to the Scottish Census 2001, we explored ethnic differences in hospitalisations and mortality (2001-2010) of all liver diseases, alcoholic liver disease (ALD) and specific alcohol-related diseases (ARD). Risk ratios (RR) were calculated using Poisson regression with robust variance, by sex, adjusted for age, country of birth and the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) presented below. The White Scottish population was the standard reference population with 95% confidence intervals (CI) calculated to enable comparison (multiplied by 100 for results). RESULTS: For all liver diseases, Chinese had around 50% higher risks for men (RR 162; 95% CI 127-207) and women (141; 109-184), as did Other South Asian men (144; 104-201) and Pakistani women (140; 116-168). Lower risks for all liver diseases occurred in African origin men (42; 24-74), other White British men (72; 63-82) and women (80; 70-90) and other White women (80; 67-94). For ALD, White Irish had a 75% higher risk for men (175; 107-287). Other White British men had about a third lower risk of ALD (63; 50-78), as did Pakistani men (65; 42-99). For ARD, almost 2-fold higher risks existed for White Irish men (182; 161-206) and Any Mixed Background women (199; 152-261). Lower risks of ARD existed in Pakistani men (67; 55-80) and women (48; 33-70), and Chinese men (55; 41-73) and women (54; 32-90). CONCLUSIONS: Substantial variations by ethnicity exist for both alcohol-related and liver disease hospitalisations and deaths in Scotland: these exist in subgroups of both White and non-White populations and practical actions are required to ameliorate these differences.

Ethnic variations in upper gastrointestinal hospitalizations and deaths: the Scottish Health and Ethnicity Linkage Study.

BACKGROUND: Upper gastrointestinal (GI) diseases are common, but there is a paucity of data describing variations by ethnic group and so a lack of understanding of potential health inequalities. We studied the incidence of specific upper GI hospitalization and death by ethnicity in Scotland. METHODS: Using the Scottish Health and Ethnicity Linkage Study, linking NHS hospitalizations and mortality to the Scottish Census 2001, we explored ethnic differences in incidence (2001-10) of oesophagitis, peptic ulcer disease, gallstone disease and pancreatitis. Relative Risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Poisson regression, multiplied by 100, stratified by sex and adjusted for age, country of birth (COB) and socio-economic position. The White Scottish population (100) was the reference population. RESULTS: Ethnic variations varied by outcome and sex, e.g. adjusted RRs (95% confidence intervals) for oesophagitis were comparatively higher in Bangladeshi women (209; 124-352) and lower in Chinese men (65; 51-84) and women (69; 55-88). For peptic ulcer disease, RRs were higher in Chinese men (171; 131-223). Pakistani women had higher RRs for gallstone disease (129; 112-148) and pancreatitis (147; 109-199). The risks of upper GI diseases were lower in Other White British and Other White [e.g. for peptic ulcer disease in men, respectively (74; 64-85) and (81; 69-94)]. CONCLUSION: Risks of common upper GI diseases were comparatively lower in most White ethnic groups in Scotland. In non-White groups, however, risk varied by disease and ethnic group. These results require consideration in health policy, service planning and future research.

Risk of respiratory hospitalization and death, readmission and subsequent mortality: scottish health and ethnicity linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Limited and dated evidence shows ethnic inequalities in health status and health care in respiratory diseases. METHODS: This retrospective, cohort study linked Scotland's hospitalization/death records on respiratory disorders to 4.65 million people in the 2001 census (providing ethnic group). For all-respiratory diseases and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) from April 2001 to 2010 we calculated age, country of birth and Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) adjusted risk ratios (RRs), by sex. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for death following hospitalization and for readmission. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals (CIs) by 100, so the reference Scottish White population's RR/HR = 100. RESULTS: RRs were comparatively low for all-respiratory diseases in Other White British (84.0, 95% CI 79.6, 88.6) and Chinese (67.4, 95% CI 55.2, 82.3) men and high in Pakistani men (138.1, 95% CI 125.5, 151.9) and women (132.7, 95% CI 108.8, 161.8). For COPD, White Irish men (142.5, 95% CI 125.3, 162.1) and women (141.9, CI 124.8, 161.3) and any Mixed Background men (161, CI 127.1, 203.9) and women (215.4, CI 158.2, 293.3) had high RRs, while Indian men (54.5, CI 41.9, 70.9) and Chinese women (50.5, CI 31.4, 81.1) had low RRs. In most non-White groups, mortality following hospitalization and readmission was similar or lower than the reference. CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of ethnic variations in these respiratory disorders was complex and did not merely reflect smoking patterns. Readmission and death after hospitalization data did not signal inequity in services for ethnic minority groups.

The 10-year follow-up of a community-based cohort of people with diabetes: The incidence of foot ulceration and death.

BACKGROUND: Identifying people with diabetes who are likely to experience a foot ulcer is an important part of preventative care. Many cohort studies report predictive models for foot ulcerations and for people with diabetes, but reports of long-term outcomes are scarce. AIM: We aimed to develop a predictive model for foot ulceration in diabetes using a range of potential risk factors with a follow-up of 10 years after recruitment. A new foot ulceration was the outcome of interest and death was the secondary outcome of interest. DESIGN: A 10-year follow-up cohort study. METHODS: 1193 people with a diagnosis of diabetes who took part in a study in 2006-2007 were invited to participate in a 10-year follow-up. We developed a prognostic model for the incidence of incident foot ulcerations using a survival analysis, Cox proportional hazards model. We also utilised survival analysis Kaplan-Meier curves, and relevant tests, to assess the association between the predictor variables for foot ulceration and death. RESULTS: At 10-year follow-up, 41% of the original study population had died and more than 18% had developed a foot ulcer. The predictive factors for foot ulceration were an inability to feel a 10 g monofilament or vibration from a tuning fork, previous foot ulceration and duration of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: The prognostic model shows an increased risk of ulceration for those with previous history of foot ulcerations, insensitivity to a 10 g monofilament, a tuning fork and duration of diabetes. The incidence of foot ulceration at 10-year follow-up was 18%; however, the risk of death for this community-based population was far greater than the risk of foot ulceration.

Inequalities in disability-free and disabling multimorbid life expectancy in Costa Rica, Mexico, and the United States.

OBJECTIVES: To better understand variations in multimorbidity severity over time, we estimate disability-free and disabling multimorbid life expectancy (MMLE), comparing Costa Rica, Mexico, and the United States. We also assess MMLE inequalities by sex and education. METHODS: Data come from the Costa Rican Study on Longevity and Healthy Aging (2005-2009), the Mexican Health and Aging Study (2012-2018), and the Health and Retirement Study (2004-2018). We apply an incidence-based multistate Markov approach to estimate disability-free and disabling MMLE and stratify models by sex and education to study within-country heterogeneity. Multimorbidity is defined as a count of two or more chronic diseases. Disability is defined using limitations in activities of daily living. RESULTS: Costa Ricans have the lowest MMLE, followed by Mexicans, then individuals from the US. Individuals from the US spend about twice as long with disability-free multimorbidity compared with individuals from Costa Rica or Mexico. Females generally have longer MMLE than males, with particularly stark differences in disabling MMLE. In the US, higher education was associated with longer disability-free MMLE and shorter disabling MMLE. We identified evidence for cumulative disadvantage in Mexico and the US, where sex differences in MMLE were larger among the lower educated. DISCUSSION: Substantial sex and educational inequalities in MMLE exist within and between these countries. Estimating disability-free and disabling MMLE reveals another layer of health inequality not captured when examining disability and multimorbidity separately. MMLE is a flexible population health measure that can be used to better understand the aging process across contexts.

Impact of vaccination on the association of COVID-19 with cardiovascular diseases: An OpenSAFELY cohort study.

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 is associated with an increased risk of arterial and venous thrombotic events, but the implications of vaccination for this increased risk are uncertain. With the approval of NHS England, we quantified associations between COVID-19 diagnosis and cardiovascular diseases in different vaccination and variant eras using linked electronic health records for ~40% of the English population. We defined a 'pre-vaccination' cohort (18,210,937 people) in the wild-type/Alpha variant eras (January 2020-June 2021), and 'vaccinated' and 'unvaccinated' cohorts (13,572,399 and 3,161,485 people respectively) in the Delta variant era (June-December 2021). We showed that the incidence of each arterial thrombotic, venous thrombotic and other cardiovascular outcomes was substantially elevated during weeks 1-4 after COVID-19, compared with before or without COVID-19, but less markedly elevated in time periods beyond week 4. Hazard ratios were higher after hospitalised than non-hospitalised COVID-19 and higher in the pre-vaccination and unvaccinated cohorts than the vaccinated cohort. COVID-19 vaccination reduces the risk of cardiovascular events after COVID-19 infection. People who had COVID-19 before or without being vaccinated are at higher risk of cardiovascular events for at least two years.

Studying trajectories of multimorbidity: a systematic scoping review of longitudinal approaches and evidence.

OBJECTIVES: Multimorbidity-the co-occurrence of at least two chronic diseases in an individual-is an important public health challenge in ageing societies. The vast majority of multimorbidity research takes a cross-sectional approach, but longitudinal approaches to understanding multimorbidity are an emerging research area, being encouraged by multiple funders. To support development in this research area, the aim of this study is to scope the methodological approaches and substantive findings of studies that have investigated longitudinal multimorbidity trajectories. DESIGN: We conducted a systematic search for relevant studies in four online databases (Medline, Scopus, Web of Science and Embase) in May 2020 using predefined search terms and inclusion and exclusion criteria. The search was complemented by searching reference lists of relevant papers. From the selected studies, we systematically extracted data on study methodology and findings and summarised them in a narrative synthesis. RESULTS: We identified 35 studies investigating multimorbidity longitudinally, all published in the last decade, and predominantly in high-income countries from the Global North. Longitudinal approaches employed included constructing change variables, multilevel regression analysis (eg, growth curve modelling), longitudinal group-based methodologies (eg, latent class modelling), analysing disease transitions and visualisation techniques. Commonly identified risk factors for multimorbidity onset and progression were older age, higher socioeconomic and area-level deprivation, overweight and poorer health behaviours. CONCLUSION: The nascent research area employs a diverse range of longitudinal approaches that characterise accumulation and disease combinations and to a lesser extent disease sequencing and progression. Gaps include understanding the long-term, life course determinants of different multimorbidity trajectories, and doing so across diverse populations, including those from low-income and middle-income countries. This can provide a detailed picture of morbidity development, with important implications from a clinical and intervention perspective.

Are there ethnic and religious variations in uptake of bowel cancer screening? A retrospective cohort study among 1.7 million people in Scotland.

OBJECTIVE: Cancer screening should be equitably accessed by all populations. Uptake of colorectal cancer screening was examined using the Scottish Health and Ethnicity Linkage Study that links the Scottish Census 2001 to health data by individual-level self-reported ethnicity and religion. SETTING: Data on 1.7 million individuals in two rounds of the Scottish Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (2007-2013) were linked to the 2001 Census using the Scottish Community Health Index number. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Uptake of colorectal cancer screening, reported as age-adjusted risk ratios (RRs) by ethnic group and religion were calculated for men and women with 95% CI. RESULTS: In the first, incidence screening round, compared with white Scottish men, Other White British (RR 109.6, 95% CI 108.8 to 110.3) and Chinese (107.2, 95% CI 102.8 to 111.8) men had higher uptake. In contrast, men of all South Asian groups had lower uptake (Indian RR 80.5, 95% CI 76.1 to 85.1; Pakistani RR 65.9, 95% CI 62.7 to 69.3; Bangladeshi RR 76.6, 95% CI 63.9 to 91.9; Other South Asian RR 88.6, 95% CI 81.8 to 96.1). Comparable patterns were seen among women in all ethnic groups, for example, Pakistani (RR 55.5, 95% CI 52.5 to 58.8). Variation in uptake was also observed by religion, with lower rates among Hindu (RR (95%CI): 78.4 (71.8 to 85.6)), Muslim (69.5 (66.7 to 72.3)) and Sikh (73.4 (67.1 to 80.3)) men compared with the reference population (Church of Scotland), with similar variation among women: lower rates were also seen among those who reported being Jewish, Roman Catholic or with no religion. CONCLUSIONS: There are important variations in uptake of bowel cancer screening by ethnic group and religion in Scotland, for both sexes, that require further research and targeted interventions.

Assessment of health care, hospital admissions, and mortality by ethnicity: population-based cohort study of health-system performance in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Ethnic minorities often experience barriers to health care. We studied six established quality indicators of health-system performance across ethnic groups in Scotland. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, we linked ethnicity from Scotland's Census 2001 (April 29, 2001) to hospital admissions and mortality records, with follow-up until April 30, 2013. Indicators of health-system performance included amenable deaths (ie, deaths avertable by effective treatment), preventable deaths (ie, deaths avertable by public health policy), avoidable deaths (combined amenable and preventable deaths), avoidable hospital admissions, unplanned readmissions, and length of stay. We calculated rate ratios and odds ratios (with 95% CIs) using Poisson and logistic regression, which we multiplied by 100, adjusting first for age-related covariates and then for socioeconomic-related and birthplace-related covariates. The white Scottish population was the reference (rate ratio [RR] 100). FINDINGS: The results are based on 4·61 million people. During the 50·5 million person-years of study, 1·17 million avoidable hospital admissions, 587 740 unplanned readmissions, and 166 245 avoidable deaths occurred. South Asian groups had higher avoidable hospital admissions than the white Scottish group, with the highest reported RRs in Pakistani groups (RR 140·6 [95% CI 131·9-150·0] in men; RR 141·0 [129·0-154·1] in women). There was little variation between ethnic groups in length of stay or unplanned readmission. Preventable and amenable mortality were higher in the white Scottish group than several ethnic minorities including other white British, other white, Indian, and Chinese groups. Such differences were partly diminished by adjustment for socioeconomic status, whereas adjustment for country of birth had little additional effect. INTERPRETATION: These data suggest concerns about the access to and quality of primary care to prevent avoidable hospital admissions, especially for south Asians. Relatively high preventable and amenable deaths in white Scottish people, compared with several ethnic minority populations, were unexpected. Future studies should both corroborate and examine explanations for these patterns. Studies using several indicators simultaneously are also required internationally. FUNDING: Chief Scientist's Office, Medical Research Council, NHS Research Scotland, Farr Institute.

Adiposity and response to an obesity prevention intervention in Pakistani and Bangladeshi primary school boys and girls: a secondary analysis using the BEACHeS feasibility study.

OBJECTIVES: As a secondary analysis of the BEACHeS study, we hypothesised there would be sex differences in Pakistani and Bangladeshi school children when examining adiposity and their response to an obesity intervention. DESIGN: The Birmingham healthy Eating and Active lifestyle for CHildren Study (BEACHeS) was designed as a Phase II feasibility study of a complex intervention. SETTING: 8 primary schools with predominantly South Asian children in Birmingham, UK PARTICIPANTS: 1090 pupils (aged 5-7 years old) from school year 1 and 2 were allocated at school level to receive an intervention. A total of 574 were enrolled in the study with consent. We focused on the 466 children of Pakistani and Bangladeshi origin (50.6% boys). INTERVENTION: Delivered between 2007 and 2009, the 1-year obesity prevention intervention targeted school and family-based dietary and physical activities. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES AND ANALYSIS: Adiposity measures including skinfold thickness were compared by sex at baseline and follow-up. Gains in adiposity measures were compared between control and intervention arms in boys and in girls. Measures were compared using two-sample t tests and Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney rank sum tests according to normality distribution. RESULTS: At baseline, girls had larger skinfold measures at all sites compared to boys although body mass index (BMI) was similar (eg, median subscapular skinfold 6.6 mm vs 5.7 mm; p<0.001). At follow-up, girls in the intervention group gained less weight and adiposity compared to respective controls (p<0.05 for weight, BMI, waist circumference, central and thigh skinfold) with a median total skinfold gain of 7.0 mm in the control group compared to 0.3 mm in the intervention group. CONCLUSIONS: Our secondary analysis suggests differences in adiposity in Pakistani and Bangladeshi girls and boys and in the effect of the intervention reducing adiposity in girls. These preliminary findings indicate that including sex differences should be examined in future trials. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN51016370; Post-results.

Life expectancy of different ethnic groups using death records linked to population census data for 4.62 million people in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Few countries record the data needed to estimate life expectancy by ethnic group. Such information is helpful in assessing the extent of health inequality. METHOD: Life tables were created using 3 years of deaths (May 2001-April 2004) linked to Scottish 2001 Census data for 4.62 million individuals with self-reported ethnicity. We created 8 ethnic groups based on the census definitions, each with at least 5000 individuals and 40 deaths. Life expectancy at birth was calculated using the revised Chiang method. RESULTS: The life expectancy of White Scottish males at birth was 74.7 years (95% CI 74.6 to 74.8), similar to Mixed Background (73.0; 70.2 to 75.8) and White Irish (75.0; 74.0 to 75.9), but shorter than Indian (80.9; 78.4 to 83.4), Pakistani (79.3; 76.9 to 81.6), Chinese (79.0; 76.5 to 81.5), Other White British (78.9; 78.6 to 79.2) and Other White (77.2; 76.4 to 78.1). The life expectancy of White Scottish females was 79.4 years (79.3 to 79.5), similar to mixed background (79.3; 76.6 to 82.0), but shorter than Pakistani (84.6; 82.0 to 87.3), Chinese (83.4; 81.1 to 85.7), Indian (83.3; 80.7 to 85.9), Other White British (82.6; 82.3 to 82.9), other White (82.0; 81.3 to 82.8) and White Irish (81; 80.2 to 81.8). CONCLUSIONS: Males and females in most of the larger ethnic minority groups in Scotland have longer life expectancies than the majority White Scottish population.

Policy for home or hospice as the preferred place of death from cancer: Scottish Health and Ethnicity Linkage Study population cohort shows challenges across all ethnic groups in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Place of cancer death varies ethnically and internationally. Palliative care reviews highlight limited ability to demonstrate equal access due to incomplete or unreliable ethnicity data. AIM: To establish place of cancer death by ethnicity and describe patient characteristics. DESIGN: We linked census, hospital episode and mortality data for 117 467 persons dying of cancer, 2001-2009. With White Scottish population as reference, prevalence ratios (PR), 95% CIs and p values of death in hospital, home or hospice adjusted for sex and age were calculated by ethnic group. RESULTS: White Scottish group and minority ethnic groups combined constituted 91% and 0.4% of cancer deaths, respectively. South Asian, Chinese and African Origin patients were youngest at death (66, 66 and 65.9 years). Compared with the Scottish White reference, the White Irish (1.15 (1.10 to 1.22), p<0.0001) and Other White British (1.07 (1.02 to 1.12), p=0.003) groups were more likely to die at home. Generally, affluent Scottish White patients were less likely to die in hospital and more likely to die at home or in a hospice regardless of socioeconomic indicator used. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer deaths occur most often in hospital (52.3%) for all ethnic groups. Regardless of the socioeconomic indicator used, more affluent Scottish White patients were less likely to die in hospital; existing socioeconomic indicators detected no clear trend for the non-White population. Regardless of ethnic group, significant work is required to achieve more people dying at home or the setting of their choice.

Ethnic variations in morbidity and mortality from lower respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: There is evidence of substantial ethnic variations in asthma morbidity and the risk of hospitalisation, but the picture in relation to lower respiratory tract infections is unclear. We carried out an observational study to identify ethnic group differences for lower respiratory tract infections. DESIGN: A retrospective, cohort study. SETTING: Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: 4.65 million people on whom information was available from the 2001 census, followed from May 2001 to April 2010. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Hospitalisations and deaths (any time following first hospitalisation) from lower respiratory tract infections, adjusted risk ratios and hazard ratios by ethnicity and sex were calculated. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals by 100, so the reference Scottish White population's risk ratio and hazard ratio was 100. RESULTS: Among men, adjusted risk ratios for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation were lower in Other White British (80, 95% confidence interval 73-86) and Chinese (69, 95% confidence interval 56-84) populations and higher in Pakistani groups (152, 95% confidence interval 136-169). In women, results were mostly similar to those in men (e.g. Chinese 68, 95% confidence interval 56-82), although higher adjusted risk ratios were found among women of the Other South Asians group (145, 95% confidence interval 120-175). Survival (adjusted hazard ratio) following lower respiratory tract infection for Pakistani men (54, 95% confidence interval 39-74) and women (31, 95% confidence interval 18-53) was better than the reference population. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial differences in the rates of lower respiratory tract infections amongst different ethnic groups in Scotland were found. Pakistani men and women had particularly high rates of lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation. The reasons behind the high rates of lower respiratory tract infection in the Pakistani community are now required.

A systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis of prognostic factors for foot ulceration in people with diabetes: the international research collaboration for the prediction of diabetic foot ulcerations (PODUS).

BACKGROUND: Annual foot risk assessment of people with diabetes is recommended in national and international clinical guidelines. At present, these are consensus based and use only a proportion of the available evidence. OBJECTIVES: We undertook a systematic review of individual patient data (IPD) to identify the most highly prognostic factors for foot ulceration (i.e. symptoms, signs, diagnostic tests) in people with diabetes. DATA SOURCES: Studies were identified from searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE. REVIEW METHODS: The electronic search strategies for MEDLINE and EMBASE databases created during an aggregate systematic review of predictive factors for foot ulceration in diabetes were updated and rerun to January 2013. One reviewer applied the IPD review eligibility criteria to the full-text articles of the studies identified in our literature search and also to all studies excluded from our aggregate systematic review to ensure that we did not miss eligible IPD. A second reviewer applied the eligibility criteria to a 10% random sample of the abstract search yield to check that no relevant material was missed. This review includes exposure variables (risk factors) only from individuals who were free of foot ulceration at the time of study entry and who had a diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (either type 1 or type 2). The outcome variable was incident ulceration. RESULTS: Our search identified 16 cohort studies and we obtained anonymised IPD for 10. These data were collected from more than 16,000 people with diabetes worldwide and reanalysed by us. One data set was kept for independent validation. The data sets contributing IPD covered a range of temporal, geographical and clinical settings. We therefore selected random-effects meta-analysis, which assumes not that all the estimates from each study are estimates of the same underlying true value, but rather that the estimates belong to the same distribution. We selected candidate variables for meta-analysis using specific criteria. After univariate meta-analyses, the most clinically important predictors were identified by an international steering committee for inclusion in the primary, multivariable meta-analysis. Age, sex, duration of diabetes, monofilaments and pulses were considered most prognostically important. Meta-analyses based on data from the entire IPD population found that an inability to feel a 10-g monofilament [odds ratio (OR) 3.184, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.654 to 3.82], at least one absent pedal pulse (OR 1.968, 95% CI 1.624 to 2.386), a longer duration of a diagnosis of diabetes (OR 1.024, 95% CI 1.011 to 1.036) and a previous history of ulceration (OR 6.589, 95% CI 2.488 to 17.45) were all predictive of risk. Female sex was protective (OR 0.743, 95% CI 0.598 to 0.922). LIMITATIONS: It was not possible to perform a meta-analysis using a one-step approach because we were unable to procure copies of one of the data sets and instead accessed data via Safe Haven. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this review identify risk assessment procedures that can reliably inform national and international diabetes clinical guideline foot risk assessment procedures. The evidence from a large sample of patients in worldwide settings show that the use of a 10-g monofilament or one absent pedal pulse will identify those at moderate or intermediate risk of foot ulceration, and a history of foot ulcers or lower-extremity amputation is sufficient to identify those at high risk. We propose the development of a clinical prediction rule (CPR) from our existing model using the following predictor variables: insensitivity to a 10-g monofilament, absent pedal pulses and a history of ulceration or lower-extremities amputations. This CPR could replace the many tests, signs and symptoms that patients currently have measured using equipment that is either costly or difficult to use. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42011001841. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.