Efficient risk-based collection of biospecimens in cohort studies: Designing a prospective study of diagnostic performance for multicancer detection tests.

In cohort studies, it can be infeasible to collect specimens on an entire cohort. For example, to estimate sensitivity of multiple Multi-Cancer Detection (MCD) assays, we desire an extra 80mL of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) blood, but this much extra blood is too expensive for us to collect on everyone. We propose a novel epidemiologic study design that efficiently oversamples those at highest baseline disease risk from whom to collect specimens, to increase the number of future cases with cfDNA blood collection. The variance reduction ratio from our risk-based subsample versus a simple random (sub)sample (SRS) depends primarily on the ratio of risk model sensitivity to the fraction of the cohort selected for specimen collection subject to constraining the risk model specificity. In a simulation where we chose 34% of Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Screening Trial cohort at highest risk of lung cancer for cfDNA blood collection, we could enrich the number of lung cancers 2.42-fold and the standard deviation of lung-cancer MCD sensitivity was 31-33% reduced versus SRS. Risk-based collection of specimens on a subsample of the cohort could be a feasible and efficient approach to collecting extra specimens for molecular epidemiology.

Absolute lung cancer risk increases among individuals with >15 quit-years: Analyses to inform the update of the American Cancer Society lung cancer screening guidelines.

BACKGROUND: This report quantifies counteracting effects of quit-years and concomitant aging on lung cancer risk, especially on exceeding 15 quit-years, when the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends curtailing lung-cancer screening. METHODS: Cox models were fitted to estimate absolute lung cancer risk among Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) and National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) participants who ever smoked. Absolute lung cancer risk and gainable years of life from screening for individuals aged 50 to 80 in the US-representative National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 2015-2018 who ever smoked were projected. Relaxing USPSTF recommendations to 20/25/30 quit-years versus augmenting USPSTF criteria with individuals whose estimated gain in life expectancy from screening exceeded 16.2 days according to the Life Years From Screening-CT (LYFS-CT) prediction model was compared. RESULTS: Absolute lung cancer risk increased by 8.7%/year (95% CI, 7.7%-9.7%; p < .001) as individuals aged beyond 15 quit-years in the PLCO, with similar results in NHIS and NLST. For example, mean 5-year lung cancer risk for those aged 65 years with 15 quit-years = 1.47% (95% CI, 1.35%-1.59%) versus 1.76% (95% CI, 1.62%-1.90%) for those aged 70 years with 20 quit-years in the PLCO. Removing the quit-year criterion would make 4.9 million more people eligible and increase the proportion of preventable lung cancer deaths prevented (sensitivity) from 63.7% to 74.2%. Alternatively, augmentation using LYFS-CT would make 1.7 million more people eligible while increasing the lung cancer death sensitivity to 74.0%. CONCLUSIONS: Because of aging, absolute lung cancer risk increases beyond 15 quit-years, which does not support exemption from screening or curtailing screening once it has been initiated. Compared with relaxing the USPSTF quit-year criterion, augmentation using LYFS-CT could prevent most of the deaths at substantially superior efficiency, while also preventing deaths among individuals who currently smoke with low intensity or long duration.

The global incidence of lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancers by subsite in 2012.

By using data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer publication Cancer Incidence in 5 Continents and GLOBOCAN, this report provides the first consolidated global estimation of the subsite distribution of new cases of lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancers by country, sex, and age for the year 2012. Major geographically based, sex-based, and age-based variations in the incidence of lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancers by subsite were observed. Lip cancers were highly frequent in Australia (associated with solar radiation) and in central and eastern Europe (associated with tobacco smoking). Cancers of the oral cavity and hypopharynx were highly common in south-central Asia, especially in India (associated with smokeless tobacco, bidi, and betel-quid use). Rates of oropharyngeal cancers were elevated in northern America and Europe, notably in Hungary, Slovakia, Germany, and France and were associated with alcohol use, tobacco smoking, and human papillomavirus infection. Nasopharyngeal cancers were most common in northern Africa and eastern/southeast Asia, indicative of genetic susceptibility combined with Epstein-Barr virus infection and early life carcinogenic exposures (nitrosamines and salted foods). The global incidence of lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancers of 529,500, corresponding to 3.8% of all cancer cases, is predicted to rise by 62% to 856,000 cases by 2035 because of changes in demographics. Given the rising incidence of lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancers and the variations in incidence by subsites across world regions and countries, there is a need for local, tailored approaches to prevention, screening, and treatment interventions that will optimally reduce the lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancer burden in future decades. CA Cancer J Clin 2017;67:51-64. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Exclusive use of different types of tobacco products, exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke and risk of subtypes of head and neck cancer among Indian males.

Tobacco products are used in vary many forms in India. Although the risk of tobacco uses in developing head and neck cancer (HNC) is known, risk by exclusive use of different tobacco products on HNC and its subtypes is poorly understood. A case-control study was conducted at a tertiary cancer hospital, which receives cases from different geographical regions of India with use of different types of tobacco products. The study included 824 oral cavity (OC), 149 oropharynx (OPX) 104 hypopharyngeal (HPX) and 81 larynx (LX) cancer cases and 1206 visitor controls. Information on 11 different types of tobacco products and exposure to secondhand smoke was collected through structured questionnaires. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), for the association of various HNC subtypes with exclusive use of each tobacco product compared to nonusers of tobacco were estimated using logistic regression models, after adjusting for potential confounders. Exclusive use of any type of smokeless tobacco product was strongly associated with all subtypes of HNC. Gutka chewing (only) had highest risk (OR = 33.67; 95% CI = 19.8-57.0) while exclusive users of betel quid with tobacco (BQ + T), tobacco quid, Khaini, Mawa and Mishri users had a OR of 14.77, 24.20, 5.33, 2.96 and 3.32, respectively, for development of OC. Bidi smoking and secondhand smoke was independently associated with increased risk of HNC. Our study indicates that tobacco control policies should focus on product specific awareness messaging that switching between tobacco product types is not a safe alternative to complete cessation.

Sex disparities in the incidence of 21 cancer types: Quantification of the contribution of risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Cancer incidence is higher in men than in women at most shared anatomic sites for currently unknown reasons. The authors quantified the extent to which behaviors (smoking and alcohol use), anthropometrics (body mass index and height), lifestyles (physical activity, diet, medications), and medical history collectively explain the male predominance of risk at 21 shared cancer sites. METHODS: Prospective cohort analyses (n = 171,274 male and n = 122,826 female participants; age range, 50-71 years) in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study (1995-2011). Cancer-specific Cox regression models were used to estimate male-to-female hazard ratios (HRs). The degree to which risk factors explained the observed male-female risk disparity was quantified using the Peters-Belson method. RESULTS: There were 26,693 incident cancers (17,951 in men and 8742 in women). Incidence was significantly lower in men than in women only for thyroid and gallbladder cancers. At most other anatomic sites, the risks were higher in men than in women (adjusted HR range, 1.3-10.8), with the strongest increases for bladder cancer (HR, 3.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.93-3.79), gastric cardia cancer (HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 2.26-5.37), larynx cancer (HR, 3.53; 95% CI, 2.46-5.06), and esophageal adenocarcinoma (HR, 10.80; 95% CI, 7.33-15.90). Risk factors explained a statistically significant (nonzero) proportion of the observed male excess for esophageal adenocarcinoma and cancers of liver, other biliary tract, bladder, skin, colon, rectum, and lung. However, only a modest proportion of the male excess was explained by risk factors (ranging from 50% for lung cancer to 11% for esophageal adenocarcinoma). CONCLUSIONS: Men have a higher risk of cancer than women at most shared anatomic sites. Such male predominance is largely unexplained by risk factors, underscoring a role for sex-related biologic factors.

Life-Gained-Based Versus Risk-Based Selection of Smokers for Lung Cancer Screening.

Background: Although risk-based selection of ever-smokers for screening could prevent more lung cancer deaths than screening according to the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines, it preferentially selects older ever-smokers with shorter life expectancies due to comorbidities. Objective: To compare selection of ever-smokers for screening based on gains in life expectancy versus lung cancer risk. Design: Cohort analyses and model-based projections. Setting: U.S. population of ever-smokers aged 40 to 84 years. Participants: 130 964 National Health Interview Survey participants, representing about 60 million U.S. ever-smokers during 1997 to 2015. Intervention: Annual computed tomography (CT) screening for 3 years versus no screening. Measurements: Estimated number of lung cancer deaths averted and life-years gained after development of a mortality model. Results: Using the calibrated and validated mortality model in U.S. ever-smokers aged 40 to 84 years and selecting 8.3 million ever-smokers to match the number selected by the USPSTF criteria in 2013 to 2015, the analysis estimated that life-gained-based selection would increase the total life expectancy from CT screening (633 400 vs. 607 800 years) but prevent fewer lung cancer deaths (52 600 vs. 55 000) compared with risk-based selection. The 1.56 million persons selected by the life-gained-based strategy but not the risk-based strategy were younger (mean age, 59 vs. 75 years) and had fewer comorbidities (mean, 0.75 vs. 3.7). Limitation: Estimates are model-based and assume implementation of lung cancer screening with short-term effectiveness similar to that from trials. Conclusion: Life-gained-based selection could maximize the benefits of lung cancer screening in the U.S. population by including ever-smokers who have both high lung cancer risk and long life expectancy. Primary Funding Source: Intramural Research Program of the National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health.

Circulating inflammation markers and colorectal adenoma risk.

Inflammation is a driver of colorectal neoplasia; however, what particular inflammatory processes play a role in early carcinogenesis are unclear. We compared serum levels of 78 inflammation markers between 171 pathologically confirmed colorectal adenoma cases (including 48 incident cases) and 344 controls within the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. We used weighted multivariable logistic regression to compute odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). We found 14 markers associated with risk of adenoma overall; three of these were also associated with incident adenoma: CC-chemokine cysteine motif chemokine ligand 20 (CCL20) [overall adenoma fourth versus first quartile: OR 4.8, 95% CI 2.0-12, Ptrend 0.0007; incident adenoma third versus first tertile: OR 4.6, 95% CI 1.0-22, Ptrend 0.03], growth-related gene oncogene products (GRO) [OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.6-9.3, Ptrend 0.006 and OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.1-12, Ptrend 0.04, respectively] and insulin [OR 2.9, 95% CI 0.8-10, Ptrend 0.05 and OR 7.8, 95% CI 1.3-46, Ptrend 0.03, respectively]. All statistical tests were two-sided. These results provide important new evidence implicating CCL20- and GRO-related pathways in early colorectal carcinogenesis and further support a role for insulin.

Development and validation of an individualized risk prediction model for oropharynx cancer in the US population.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of oropharynx cancers has increased substantially in the United States. However, risk stratification tools for the identification of high-risk individuals do not exist. In this study, an individualized risk prediction model was developed and validated for oropharynx cancers in the US population. METHODS: A synthetic, US population-based case-control study was conducted. Oropharynx cancer cases diagnosed at Ohio State University (n = 241) were propensity-weighted to represent oropharynx cancers occurring annually in the United States during 2009-2014 (n = 12,656). Controls (n = 9327) included participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2009-2014) and represented the annual US population aged 30 to 69 years (n = 154,532,508). The individualized 1-year absolute risk of oropharynx cancer was estimated with weighted logistic regression. RESULTS: The risk prediction model included age, sex, race, smoking, alcohol use, lifetime sexual partners, and oral oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) status. The model had good discrimination and calibration in split-sample validation (area under the curve [AUC], 0.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92-0.97; observed/expected [O/E], 1.01; 95% CI, 0.70-1.32) and external validation (AUC, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.84-0.90; O/E, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.77-1.39). In the US population, 1-year predicted risks of oropharynx cancer were highest for older individuals (21.1/100,000 for 65- to 69-year-olds), men (13.9/100,000), whites (10.4/100,000), smokers (18.0/100,000 for >20 pack-years), heavy alcohol users (18.4/100,000), and those with prevalent oral oncogenic HPV (140.4/100,000). The risk prediction model provided substantial risk stratification, with approximately 77% of all oropharynx cancers and approximately 99% of HPV-positive oropharynx cancers occurring in the 10% of the US population with the highest model-predicted risk. CONCLUSIONS: This risk prediction model will enable the efficient design of studies to address the outstanding questions pertaining to the natural history, screening, and secondary prevention of oropharynx cancers.

Implications of Nine Risk Prediction Models for Selecting Ever-Smokers for Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening.

Background: Lung cancer screening guidelines recommend using individualized risk models to refer ever-smokers for screening. However, different models select different screening populations. The performance of each model in selecting ever-smokers for screening is unknown. Objective: To compare the U.S. screening populations selected by 9 lung cancer risk models (the Bach model; the Spitz model; the Liverpool Lung Project [LLP] model; the LLP Incidence Risk Model [LLPi]; the Hoggart model; the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial Model 2012 [PLCOM2012]; the Pittsburgh Predictor; the Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool [LCRAT]; and the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool [LCDRAT]) and to examine their predictive performance in 2 cohorts. Design: Population-based prospective studies. Setting: United States. Participants: Models selected U.S. screening populations by using data from the National Health Interview Survey from 2010 to 2012. Model performance was evaluated using data from 337 388 ever-smokers in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study and 72 338 ever-smokers in the CPS-II (Cancer Prevention Study II) Nutrition Survey cohort. Measurements: Model calibration (ratio of model-predicted to observed cases [expected-observed ratio]) and discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]). Results: At a 5-year risk threshold of 2.0%, the models chose U.S. screening populations ranging from 7.6 million to 26 million ever-smokers. These disagreements occurred because, in both validation cohorts, 4 models (the Bach model, PLCOM2012, LCRAT, and LCDRAT) were well-calibrated (expected-observed ratio range, 0.92 to 1.12) and had higher AUCs (range, 0.75 to 0.79) than 5 models that generally overestimated risk (expected-observed ratio range, 0.83 to 3.69) and had lower AUCs (range, 0.62 to 0.75). The 4 best-performing models also had the highest sensitivity at a fixed specificity (and vice versa) and similar discrimination at a fixed risk threshold. These models showed better agreement on size of the screening population (7.6 million to 10.9 million) and achieved consensus on 73% of persons chosen. Limitation: No consensus on risk thresholds for screening. Conclusion: The 9 lung cancer risk models chose widely differing U.S. screening populations. However, 4 models (the Bach model, PLCOM2012, LCRAT, and LCDRAT) most accurately predicted risk and performed best in selecting ever-smokers for screening. Primary Funding Source: Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health/National Cancer Institute.

Risk of oral tongue cancer among immunocompromised transplant recipients and human immunodeficiency virus-infected individuals in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Oral tongue cancer incidence has increased among whites in the United States; however, the cause remains unknown. If an infectious agent is implicated, then elevated risk would be expected among immunosuppressed individuals. METHODS: By using population-based registry linkage information from the US Transplant Cancer Match and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) Cancer Match studies, the authors examined the risk of oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) among immunocompromised transplantation recipients and HIV-infected individuals. In addition, the risks of oropharyngeal SCC (strongly related to human papillomavirus infection; modestly affected by immunosuppression), other tobacco/alcohol-related oral cavity SCCs (not thought to be infection/immunosuppression-related), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma of oral cavity/pharynx (strongly related to Epstein-Barr virus; profoundly affected by immunosuppression) were evaluated. RESULTS: Compared with the general population, the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma was strongly increased (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] > 8.0). The risk of all SCCs was modestly and similarly elevated among transplantation recipients (SIR range, 2.2-2.7; Pheterogeneity = .2); whereas, among HIV-infected individuals, the risk of oral tongue SCC was higher compared with the risk of other SCCs (SIR, 3.0 vs 1.7 [for oropharyngeal SCCs] and 2.3 [for other oral cavity SCCs]; Pheterogeneity < .001). The risk of SCCs was significantly higher among men, older individuals, and whites; and risk increased with the time since transplantation/AIDS onset. The risk of oral tongue SCC was significantly higher among HIV-infected men who have sex with men compared with the average risk in HIV-infected individuals (adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.0). CONCLUSIONS: Similar modest increases in the risk of oral tongue and other oral cavity SCCs do not suggest that an infectious agent or exposure profoundly affected by immunosuppression underlies the increase in oral tongue cancer. Cancer 2018;124:2515-22. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Industrial hog farming is associated with altered circulating immunological markers.

OBJECTIVES: The previously observed inverse association between hog farming and risk of lung cancer in the Agricultural Health Study (AHS) has been attributed to endotoxin exposure, the levels of which are particularly high in industrial hog confinement facilities. We conducted an investigation to explore the potential biological mechanisms underlying this association, as well as other immunological changes associated with hog farming. METHODS: Serum immune marker levels were measured using a multiplexed bead-based assay in 61 active hog farmers and 61 controls matched on age, phlebotomy date and raising cattle. Both groups comprised non-smoking male AHS participants from Iowa. We compared natural log-transformed marker levels between hog farmers and controls using multivariate linear regression models. RESULTS: Circulating levels of macrophage-derived chemokine (CCL22), a chemokine previously implicated in lung carcinogenesis, were reduced among hog farmers (17% decrease; 95% CI -28% to -4%), in particular for those with the largest operations (>6000 hogs: 26% decrease; 95% CI -39% to -10%; ptrend=0.002). We also found that hog farmers had elevated levels of other immune markers, including macrophage inflammatory protein-3 alpha (MIP-3A/CCL20; 111% increase, 95% CI 19% to 273%), basic fibroblast growth factor (FGF-2; 93% increase, 95% CI 10% to 240%) and soluble interleukin-4 receptor (12% increase, 95% CI 1% to 25%), with particularly strong associations for MIP-3A/CCL20 and FGF-2 in winter. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide insights into potential immunomodulatory mechanisms through which endotoxin or other exposures associated with hog farming may influence lung cancer risk, and warrant further investigation with more detailed bioaerosol exposure assessment.

A prospective study of immune and inflammation markers and risk of lung cancer among female never smokers in Shanghai.

There is a paucity of data on risk factors for lung cancer among never smokers. Here, we have carried out the first large study of circulating inflammation markers and lung cancer risk among female never smokers in Shanghai. A study of 248 lung cancer cases in female never smokers and 263 controls was nested within the Shanghai Women's Health Study (n = 75221), matched by dates of birth and blood collection (mean follow-up time = 7.5 years). Prediagnostic plasma levels of 65 inflammation markers were measured using a Luminex bead-based assay. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated with multivariable logistic regression. Nine of 61 evaluable markers were statistically significantly associated with lung cancer risk among never smoking Chinese women (P-trend across categories <0.05). Soluble interleukin-6 receptor [sIL-6R; highest versus lowest category OR = 2.37; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.40-4.02) and chemokine (C-C motif) ligand 2/monocyte chemotactic protein 1; (OR = 1.62; 95% CI 0.94-2.80) were associated with an increased risk of lung cancer, whereas interleukin (IL)-21 (OR = 0.53; 95%CI 0.31-0.93), chemokine (C-X3-C motif) ligand 1/fractalkine (OR = 0.54; 95% CI 0.30-0.96), soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 (sVEGFR2, OR = 0.45; 95% CI 0.26-0.76), sVEGFR3 (OR = 0.53; 95% CI 0.32-0.90), soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor I (OR = 0.49; 95% CI 0.29-0.83), IL-10 (OR = 0.60; 95% CI 0.34-1.05) and C-reactive protein (OR = 0.63; 95% CI 0.37-1.06) were associated with a decreased risk. sIL-6R remained significantly associated with lung cancer risk >7.5 years prior to diagnosis. Markers involved in various aspects of the immune response were associated with subsequent lung cancer risk, implicating inflammation in the etiology of lung cancer among female never smokers.

Prediagnostic circulating inflammation markers and endometrial cancer risk in the prostate, lung, colorectal and ovarian cancer (PLCO) screening trial.

Inflammation is proposed to increase risk of developing endometrial cancer, but few prospective epidemiologic studies have investigated the relationship between circulating inflammation markers and endometrial cancer risk. In a nested case-control study within the PLCO Screening Trial we measured serum levels of 64 inflammation-related biomarkers in 284 incident endometrial cancer cases and 284 matched controls. Using multivariable logistic regression inflammation markers were evaluated individually and combined into a cross-validated inflammation score. Of 64 markers, 22 were associated with endometrial cancer risk at p < 0.05 and 17 of 22 markers remained associated after multiple testing corrections. After adjusting for BMI and estradiol, SERPINE1 [quartile(Q)4 vs. Q1 odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval (CI)), p trend = 2.43 (0.94-6.29), 0.03] and VEGFA [2.56 (1.52-4.30), 0.0002] were positively associated with endometrial cancer risk, while CCL3 [0.46 (0.27-0.77), 0.01], IL13 [0.55 (0.33-0.93), 0.01], IL21 [0.52 (0.31-0.87), 0.01], IL1B [0.51 (0.30-0.86), 0.01] and IL23 [0.60 (0.35-1.03), 0.02] were inversely associated with risk. We observed large differences in ORs across BMI-inflammation score categories. Endometrial cancer risk was most pronounced among obese women with the highest inflammation score tertile (T) [10.25 (3.56-29.55) vs. normal BMI/T1]. Several inflammation markers were prospectively associated with endometrial cancer, including adipokines, pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines, angiogenic factors and acute phase proteins. Inverse associations with anti-inflammatory markers (IL13, IL21), other inflammation markers/mediators (CCL3, IL1B, IL23), and a robust positive association between VEGFA and endometrial cancer risk were independent of BMI and estradiol, suggesting that these factors may influence risk through other mechanisms.

Targeting of low-dose CT screening according to the risk of lung-cancer death.

BACKGROUND: In the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), screening with low-dose computed tomography (CT) resulted in a 20% reduction in lung-cancer mortality among participants between the ages of 55 and 74 years with a minimum of 30 pack-years of smoking and no more than 15 years since quitting. It is not known whether the benefits and potential harms of such screening vary according to lung-cancer risk. METHODS: We assessed the variation in efficacy, the number of false positive results, and the number of lung-cancer deaths prevented among 26,604 participants in the NLST who underwent low-dose CT screening, as compared with the 26,554 participants who underwent chest radiography, according to the quintile of 5-year risk of lung-cancer death (ranging from 0.15 to 0.55% in the lowest-risk group [quintile 1] to more than 2.00% in the highest-risk group [quintile 5]). RESULTS: The number of lung-cancer deaths per 10,000 person-years that were prevented in the CT-screening group, as compared with the radiography group, increased according to risk quintile (0.2 in quintile 1, 3.5 in quintile 2, 5.1 in quintile 3, 11.0 in quintile 4, and 12.0 in quintile 5; P=0.01 for trend). Across risk quintiles, there were significant decreasing trends in the number of participants with false positive results per screening-prevented lung-cancer death (1648 in quintile 1, 181 in quintile 2, 147 in quintile 3, 64 in quintile 4, and 65 in quintile 5). The 60% of participants at highest risk for lung-cancer death (quintiles 3 through 5) accounted for 88% of the screening-prevented lung-cancer deaths and for 64% of participants with false positive results. The 20% of participants at lowest risk (quintile 1) accounted for only 1% of prevented lung-cancer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Screening with low-dose CT prevented the greatest number of deaths from lung cancer among participants who were at highest risk and prevented very few deaths among those at lowest risk. These findings provide empirical support for risk-based targeting of smokers for such screening. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute.).

Selection criteria for lung-cancer screening.

BACKGROUND: The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) used risk factors for lung cancer (e.g., ≥30 pack-years of smoking and <15 years since quitting) as selection criteria for lung-cancer screening. Use of an accurate model that incorporates additional risk factors to select persons for screening may identify more persons who have lung cancer or in whom lung cancer will develop. METHODS: We modified the 2011 lung-cancer risk-prediction model from our Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial to ensure applicability to NLST data; risk was the probability of a diagnosis of lung cancer during the 6-year study period. We developed and validated the model (PLCO(M2012)) with data from the 80,375 persons in the PLCO control and intervention groups who had ever smoked. Discrimination (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve [AUC]) and calibration were assessed. In the validation data set, 14,144 of 37,332 persons (37.9%) met NLST criteria. For comparison, 14,144 highest-risk persons were considered positive (eligible for screening) according to PLCO(M2012) criteria. We compared the accuracy of PLCO(M2012) criteria with NLST criteria to detect lung cancer. Cox models were used to evaluate whether the reduction in mortality among 53,202 persons undergoing low-dose computed tomographic screening in the NLST differed according to risk. RESULTS: The AUC was 0.803 in the development data set and 0.797 in the validation data set. As compared with NLST criteria, PLCO(M2012) criteria had improved sensitivity (83.0% vs. 71.1%, P<0.001) and positive predictive value (4.0% vs. 3.4%, P=0.01), without loss of specificity (62.9% and. 62.7%, respectively; P=0.54); 41.3% fewer lung cancers were missed. The NLST screening effect did not vary according to PLCO(M2012) risk (P=0.61 for interaction). CONCLUSIONS: The use of the PLCO(M2012) model was more sensitive than the NLST criteria for lung-cancer detection.

Development and Validation of Risk Models to Select Ever-Smokers for CT Lung Cancer Screening.

IMPORTANCE: The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends computed tomography (CT) lung cancer screening for ever-smokers aged 55 to 80 years who have smoked at least 30 pack-years with no more than 15 years since quitting. However, selecting ever-smokers for screening using individualized lung cancer risk calculations may be more effective and efficient than current USPSTF recommendations. OBJECTIVE: Comparison of modeled outcomes from risk-based CT lung-screening strategies vs USPSTF recommendations. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Empirical risk models for lung cancer incidence and death in the absence of CT screening using data on ever-smokers from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO; 1993-2009) control group. Covariates included age; education; sex; race; smoking intensity, duration, and quit-years; body mass index; family history of lung cancer; and self-reported emphysema. Model validation in the chest radiography groups of the PLCO and the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST; 2002-2009), with additional validation of the death model in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS; 1997-2001), a representative sample of the United States. Models were applied to US ever-smokers aged 50 to 80 years (NHIS 2010-2012) to estimate outcomes of risk-based selection for CT lung screening, assuming screening for all ever-smokers, yield the percent changes in lung cancer detection and death observed in the NLST. EXPOSURES: Annual CT lung screening for 3 years beginning at age 50 years. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: For model validity: calibration (number of model-predicted cases divided by number of observed cases [estimated/observed]) and discrimination (area under curve [AUC]). For modeled screening outcomes: estimated number of screen-avertable lung cancer deaths and estimated screening effectiveness (number needed to screen [NNS] to prevent 1 lung cancer death). RESULTS: Lung cancer incidence and death risk models were well calibrated in PLCO and NLST. The lung cancer death model calibrated and discriminated well for US ever-smokers aged 50 to 80 years (NHIS 1997-2001: estimated/observed = 0.94 [95%CI, 0.84-1.05]; AUC, 0.78 [95%CI, 0.76-0.80]). Under USPSTF recommendations, the models estimated 9.0 million US ever-smokers would qualify for lung cancer screening and 46,488 (95% CI, 43,924-49,053) lung cancer deaths were estimated as screen-avertable over 5 years (estimated NNS, 194 [95% CI, 187-201]). In contrast, risk-based selection screening of the same number of ever-smokers (9.0 million) at highest 5-year lung cancer risk (≥1.9%) was estimated to avert 20% more deaths (55,717 [95% CI, 53,033-58,400]) and was estimated to reduce the estimated NNS by 17% (NNS, 162 [95% CI, 157-166]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among a cohort of US ever-smokers aged 50 to 80 years, application of a risk-based model for CT screening for lung cancer compared with a model based on USPSTF recommendations was estimated to be associated with a greater number of lung cancer deaths prevented over 5 years, along with a lower NNS to prevent 1 lung cancer death.

A prospective study of 67 serum immune and inflammation markers and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

Although severe immune dysregulation is an established risk factor for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), the importance of subclinical immunologic effects is unclear. We compared baseline serum levels of 67 immune and inflammation markers between 301 patients with NHL diagnosed 5+ years after blood collection and 301 control patients within the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. We observed associations with NHL for elevated B-cell-attracting chemokine 1 (BCA-1; fourth quartile vs first: odds ratio [OR], 2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-4.2; Ptrend = 1.0 × 10(-6)), soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 2 (sTNFR2; OR, 3.4; 95% CI, 2.0-5.8; Ptrend = 1.1 × 10(-6)), and soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 (sVEGFR2; OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.4-3.9; Ptrend = .0005) that remained significant after Bonferroni correction, simultaneous model adjustment, and restriction to cases diagnosed 8 to 13 years after blood collection. Associations with other markers were observed, although none remained associated with NHL after adjustment for BCA-1, sTNFR2, and sVEGFR2. Our findings suggest that circulating BCA-1, sTNFR2, and sVEGFR2 are associated with NHL risk well in advance of diagnosis. Additional research is needed to replicate these findings and elucidate the underlying biologic mechanisms.

Detection of HPV DNA in paraffin-embedded cervical samples: a comparison of four genotyping methods.

BACKGROUND: Identification of human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA in cervical tissue is important for understanding cervical carcinogenesis and for evaluating cervical cancer prevention approaches. However, HPV genotyping using formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissues is technically challenging. We evaluated the performance of four commonly used genotyping methods on FFPE cervical specimens conducted in different laboratories and compared to genotyping results from cytological samples. METHODS: We included 60 pairs of exfoliated-cell and FFPE specimens from women with histologically confirmed cervical intraepithelial lesions grade 2 or 3. Cytology specimens were genotyped using the Linear Array assay. Four expert laboratories processed tissue specimens using different preparation methods and then genotyped the resultant sample preparations using four different HPV genotyping methods: SPF10-PCR DEIA LiPA25 (version 1), Inno-LiPA, Linear Array and the Onclarity assay. Percentage agreement, kappa statistics and McNemar's chi-square were calculated for each comparison of different methods and specimen types. RESULTS: Overall agreement with respect to carcinogenic HPV status for FFPE samples between different methods was: 81.7, 86.7 and 91.7% for Onclarity versus Inno-LiPA, Linear Array and SPF-LiPA25, respectively; 81.7 and 85.0% for Linear Array versus Inno-LiPA and SPF-LiPA25, respectively; and 86.7% for SPF-LiPA25 versus Inno-LiPA. Type-specific agreement was >88.3% for all pair-wise comparisons. Comparisons with cytology specimens resulted in overall agreements from 80 to 95% depending on the method and type-specific agreement was >90% for most comparisons. CONCLUSIONS: Our data demonstrate that the four genotyping methods run by expert laboratories reliably detect HPV DNA in FFPE specimens with some variation in genotype-specific detection.