Estimated Societal Value of Lecanemab in Patients with Early Alzheimer's Disease Using Simulation Modeling.

INTRODUCTION: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder associated with memory, cognitive, and behavioral deficits, and brings significant economic burden on caregivers and healthcare systems. This study aims to estimate the long-term societal value of lecanemab plus standard of care (SoC) versus SoC alone, corresponding to a range of willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds based on the phase III CLARITY AD trial readouts from both the US payer and societal perspectives. METHODS: An evidence-based model was developed to simulate the effects of lecanemab on disease progression in early AD using interconnected predictive equations based on longitudinal clinical and biomarker data derived from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). The model was informed with the results of the phase III CLARITY AD trial and published literature. Key model outcomes included patient life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and total costs of both the direct and indirect costs of patients and caregivers over a lifetime horizon. RESULTS: Patients treated with lecanemab plus SoC gained an additional 0.62 years of life versus SoC alone (6.23 years vs. 5.61 years). The mean time on lecanemab was 3.91 years, and the treatment was associated with an increase in patient QALYs of 0.61 and an increase in total QALYs of 0.64 when both patient and caregiver utilities were considered. The model estimated that the annual value of lecanemab for the US payer perspective was US$18,709-35,678 ($19,710-37,351 for societal perspective) at the WTP threshold of $100,000-200,000 per QALY gained, respectively. Scenario analyses of patient subgroups, time horizon, input sources, treatment stopping rules, and treatment dosing were conducted to explore the impact of alternative assumptions on the model results. CONCLUSION: The economic study suggested that lecanemab plus SoC would improve health and humanistic (quality of life) outcomes and reduce economic burden for patients and caregivers in early AD.

A Path to Improved Alzheimer's Care: Simulating Long-Term Health Outcomes of Lecanemab in Early Alzheimer's Disease from the CLARITY AD Trial.

INTRODUCTION: Alzheimer's disease (AD), a progressive neurodegenerative disease, is the main cause of dementia and one of the leading causes of death for elderly people in the USA. Lecanemab is a humanized IgG1 monoclonal antibody targeting amyloid protofibrils for the treatment of early AD [i.e., mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or mild AD dementia]. In a recent 18-month phase III trial, using a double-blind, placebo-controlled design, lecanemab treatment led to reduced brain amyloid burden and significant improvements in cognitive and functional abilities in individuals with early AD. METHODS: An evidence-based patient-level disease simulation model was updated to estimate the long-term health outcomes of lecanemab plus standard of care (SoC) compared to SoC alone in patients with early AD and evidence of brain amyloid burden, using recent phase III trial data and published literature. The disease progression is described by changes in the underlying biomarkers of AD, including measures of amyloid and tau, and their connection to the clinical presentation of the disease assessed through various patient-level scales of cognition and function. RESULTS: Lecanemab treatment was estimated to slow the progression of AD to moderate and severe stages and reduce the time spent in these more advanced states. In individuals with early AD, lecanemab plus SoC was associated with a gain of 0.71 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), a 2.95-year delay in mean time to progression to AD dementia, a reduction of 0.11 years in institutional care, and an additional 1.07 years in community care as shown in the base-case study. Improved health outcomes were demonstrated with lecanemab treatment when initiated earlier based on age, disease severity, or tau pathology, resulting in estimated gains in QALYs ranging from 0.77 to 1.09 years, compared to 0.4 years in the mild AD dementia subset, as shown by the model. CONCLUSION: The study findings demonstrate the potential clinical value of lecanemab for individuals with early AD by slowing down disease progression and prolonging time in earlier stages of disease, which significantly benefits not only patients and caregivers but also society overall. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT03887455.

Predicting the Societal Value of Lecanemab in Early Alzheimer's Disease in Japan: A Patient-Level Simulation.

INTRODUCTION: Alzheimer's disease (AD), a neurodegenerative disorder that progresses from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia, is responsible for significant burden on caregivers and healthcare systems. In this study, data from the large phase III CLARITY AD trial were used to estimate the societal value of lecanemab plus standard of care (SoC) versus SoC alone against a range of willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds from a healthcare and societal perspective in Japan. METHODS: A disease simulation model was used to evaluate the impact of lecanemab on disease progression in early AD based on data from the phase III CLARITY AD trial and published literature. The model used a series of predictive risk equations based on clinical and biomarker data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative and Assessment of Health Economics in Alzheimer's Disease II study. The model predicted key patient outcomes, including life years (LYs), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and total healthcare and informal costs of patients and caregivers. RESULTS: Over a lifetime horizon, patients treated with lecanemab plus SoC gained an additional 0.73 LYs compared with SoC alone (8.50 years vs. 7.77 years). Lecanemab, with an average treatment duration of 3.68 years, was found to be associated with a 0.91 increase in patient QALYs and a total increase of 0.96 when accounting for caregiver utility. The estimated value of lecanemab varied according to the WTP thresholds (JPY 5-15 million per QALY gained) and the perspective employed. From the narrow healthcare payer's perspective, it ranged from JPY 1,331,305 to JPY 3,939,399. From the broader healthcare payer's perspective, it ranged from JPY 1,636,827 to JPY 4,249,702, while from the societal perspective, it ranged from JPY 1,938,740 to JPY 4,675,818. CONCLUSION: The use of lecanemab plus SoC would improve health and humanistic outcomes with reduced economic burden for patients and caregivers with early AD in Japan.

Long-Term Health Outcomes of Lecanemab in Patients with Early Alzheimer's Disease Using Simulation Modeling.

INTRODUCTION: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive, neurodegenerative disease and is the most common cause of dementia. Lecanemab is a humanized monoclonal antibody targeting amyloid protofibrils for the treatment of early AD. In the phase II BAN2401-G000-201 trial (NCT01767311), lecanemab reduced amyloid accumulated in the brain and slowed progression on key global and cognitive scales evaluating efficacy after 18 months of treatment. METHODS: A disease simulation model was used to predict the long-term clinical outcomes of lecanemab for patients with early AD [i.e., mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD and mild AD dementia] on the basis of BAN2401-G000-201 trial data and published literature. The model captures the pathophysiology and management of AD, with a focus on simulating the effects of disease modification and early intervention on disease progression. The model compares lecanemab in addition to standard of care (SoC) versus SoC alone. RESULTS: Lecanemab treatment was estimated to slow the rate of disease progression, resulting in an extended duration of MCI due to AD and mild AD dementia and shortened duration in moderate and severe AD dementia. The mean time to mild, moderate, and severe AD dementia was longer for patients in the lecanemab + SoC group than for patients in the SoC group by 2.51, 3.13, and 2.34 years, respectively. On base-case analysis, lecanemab was associated with 0.73 incremental life years (LY) and 0.75 incremental quality-adjusted LYs (QALY), and the caregiver QALYs lost was reduced by 0.03 years. The model also predicted a lower lifetime probability of admission to institutional care in lecanemab + SoC versus SoC group (25% versus 31%). CONCLUSION: The model results demonstrate the potential clinical value of lecanemab for patients with early AD and how it can slow the rate of disease progression and reduce the lifetime probability for institutionalized care.

The Potential Economic Value of Lecanemab in Patients with Early Alzheimer's Disease Using Simulation Modeling.

INTRODUCTION: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive, neurodegenerative disease that affects memory, thinking, and behavior and places a substantial economic burden on caregivers and healthcare systems. This early-phase study aimed to model lecanemab, a humanized monoclonal antibody targeting amyloid protofibrils, for patients with early AD, and estimate the potential value-based price (VBP) of lecanemab + standard of care (SoC) compared to SoC alone given an expected product profile of lecanemab informed by data from a phase II trial from payer and societal perspectives using a broad range of willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds in the USA. METHODS: A disease simulation model was used to capture how key AD pathology components relate to the clinical and economic presentation of AD. The effects of disease modification and early intervention on disease progression were simulated on the basis of BAN2401-G000-201 trial data as well as published literature. Model outcomes included patient and caregiver quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), total life years, and total care costs including direct medical and non-medical costs for healthcare resource use and indirect costs for caregiving over a lifetime horizon. RESULTS: Lecanemab + SoC was predicted to result in a gain of 0.61 QALYs (societal, 0.64) and a $8707 decrease in total non-treatment costs (societal, $11,214) vs. SoC alone for patients with early AD. For a WTP threshold range of $50,000 to $200,000 per QALY gained, the potential annual VBP of lecanemab was estimated at $9249 (societal, $10,400) to $35,605 (societal, $38,053), respectively. Other patient subsets, treatment stopping rules, and dosing regimens were used to assess the sensitivity of the VBP estimates. CONCLUSION: The early model predicted that lecanemab would potentially improve long-term health outcomes and reduce formal and informal care costs, resulting in a range of VBPs that reflect the value of lecanemab to society.

A Simulation Model to Evaluate the Potential Impact of Disease-Modifying Treatments on Burden of Illness in Alzheimer's Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease that places a substantial burden on patients, caregivers, and society. The advent of disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) would represent a major advancement in the management of AD, particularly in early AD. It is important to understand the potential value of these therapies to individuals and society. METHODS: A modeling framework was developed to estimate the potential clinical and economic burden of AD in the USA by simulating the impact, relative to that of usual care, of a DMT with hypothesized availability beginning from 2022. The model assessed AD epidemiology, disease progression, and burden of illness from 2020 to 2050. Model outcomes included the total number of Americans with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD and mild, moderate, or severe AD dementia in community or residential care settings and their associated care costs, including direct medical and non-medical costs for healthcare resource use and indirect costs for caregiving. RESULTS: A hypothetical DMT was compared to the usual care under different effect scenarios based on delay in onset of AD (1, 3, and 5 years) and DMT uptake (25%, 50%, and 100%). A delay in the onset of AD by 5 years would reduce the prevalence of AD in 2050 by 6%, 12%, and 25%, resulting in savings of $0.783, $1.566, and $3.132 trillion from 2022 to 2050 for the 25%, 50%, and 100% uptake scenarios, respectively. CONCLUSION: This analysis demonstrated that DMTs that provide even small delays in the onset of AD can lead to an increase in disease-free years and sizable savings in the cost of care, providing significant benefits to patients, caregivers, and society.

The Potential Value-Based Price of a Multi-Cancer Early Detection Genomic Blood Test to Complement Current Single Cancer Screening in the USA.

BACKGROUND: Multi-cancer early detection (MCED) testing could increase detection of cancer at early stages, when survival outcomes are better and treatment costs are lower, but is expected to increase screening costs. This study modeled an MCED test for 19 solid cancers in a US population and estimated the potential value-based price (the maximum price to meet a given willingness to pay) of the MCED test plus current single cancer screening (usual care) compared to usual care alone from a third-party payer perspective over a lifetime horizon. METHODS: A hybrid cohort-level state-transition and decision-tree model was developed to estimate the clinical and economic outcomes of annual MCED testing between age 50 and 79 years. The impact on time and stage of diagnosis was computed using an interception modeling approach, with the consequences of cancer modeled based on stage at diagnosis. The model parameters were mainly sourced from the literature, including a published case-control study to inform MCED test performance. All costs were inflated to 2021 US dollars. RESULTS: Multi-cancer early detection testing shifted cancer diagnoses to earlier stages, with a 53% reduction in stage IV cancer diagnoses, resulting in longer overall survival compared with usual care. Addition of MCED decreased per cancer treatment costs by $5421 and resulted in a gain of 0.13 and 0.38 quality-adjusted life-years across all individuals in the screening program and those diagnosed with cancer, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, the potential value-based price of an MCED test was estimated at $1196. The projected survival of individuals diagnosed with cancer and the number of cancers detected at an earlier stage by MCED had the greatest impact on outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: An MCED test with high specificity would potentially improve long-term health outcomes and reduce cancer treatment costs, resulting in a value-based price of $1196 at a $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year willingness-to-pay threshold.

Cost-effectiveness of valbenazine compared with deutetrabenazine for the treatment of tardive dyskinesia.

AIMS: To evaluate clinical and economic outcomes associated with valbenazine compared with deutetrabenazine in patients with tardive dyskinesia (TD) using a model that accounts for multiple dimensions of patient health status. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A discretely integrated condition event model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treatment with valbenazine and deutetrabenazine in a synthetic cohort of 1,000 patients with TD who were receiving antipsychotic medication to treat an underlying psychiatric disorder. Clinical inputs were derived from relevant clinical trials or from publicly available sources. Patients were assessed over 1 year using ≥50% improvement from baseline in Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale (AIMS) total score as the primary definition of response. Response at 1 year using Clinical Global Impression of Change (CGIC) score ≤2 was also assessed. Health outcomes included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), life years, proportion responding to treatment at 1 year, and number of psychiatric relapses. RESULTS: Regardless of the definition used for response, patients treated with valbenazine were more likely to have responded to treatment at 1 year, lived longer, and accrued more QALYs than patients who received deutetrabenazine. Using the AIMS response criterion, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $9,951/QALY for valbenazine compared with deutetrabenazine. By comparison, using the CGIC response criterion valbenazine dominated deutetrabenazine with valbenazine-treated patients accumulating more QALYs (3.4 vs 3.3 years) and incurring lower lifetime costs ($252,311 vs $283,208) than deutetrabenazine-treated patients. LIMITATIONS: There are no head-to-head trials of valbenazine and deutetrabenazine, so probabilities of response used in the model were calculated based on an indirect treatment comparison of results from individual trials with one drug or the other, using only those metrics reported across trials. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with TD, treatment with valbenazine is highly cost-effective compared with deutetrabenazine.

Modeling long-term health and economic implications of new treatment strategies for Parkinson's disease: an individual patient simulation study.

Background: Simulation modeling facilitates the estimation of long-term health and economic outcomes to inform healthcare decision-making. Objective: To develop a framework to simulate progression of Parkinson's disease (PD), capturing motor and non-motor symptoms, clinical outcomes, and associated costs over a lifetime. Methods: A patient-level simulation was implemented accounting for individual variability and interrelated changes in common disease progression scales. Predictive equations were developed to model progression for newly diagnosed patients and were combined with additional sources to inform long-term progression. Analyses compared a hypothetical disease-modifying therapy (DMT) with a standard of care to explore the drivers of cost-effectiveness. Results: The equations captured the dependence between the various measures, leveraging prior values and rates of change to obtain realistic predictions. The simulation was built upon several interrelated equations, validated by comparison with observed values for the Movement Disorder Society Unified PD Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) and UPDRS subscales over time. In a case study, disease progression rates, patient utilities, and direct non-medical costs were drivers of cost-effectiveness. Conclusions: The developed equations supported the simulation of early PD. This model can support conducting simulations to inform internal decision-making, trial design, and strategic planning early in the development of new DMTs entering clinical trials.

Efficiency Model of Cladribine Tablets Versus Infusion-Based Disease-Modifying Drugs for Patients with Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis.

INTRODUCTION: To develop a simulation model assessing the efficiency of using cladribine tablets versus infusion-based disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) for the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) from a facility perspective in the UK. METHODS: A scheduling algorithm was developed to simulate day-case admissions and calculate the mean changes to resource use and time burden for patients in a facility that transitions from infusion-based treatments to cladribine tablets over 1 year. Model inputs and assumptions were based on previous research and expert opinion. Model validation and quality checks were performed and additional scenario analyses were also conducted. RESULTS: The model successfully scheduled all infusion treatments in the base case and no patients were left off the schedule as a result of lack of capacity. Modeled base-case outcomes increased in future scenarios owing to a 35% increase in demand. The introduction of cladribine tablets reduced these impacts. Specifically, the difference in mean daily utilization was reduced in the future scenario from 13% to 3% as 8% of patients moved to cladribine tablets; annual administration costs decreased by 96% and annual time burden decreased by 90%. Results from additional scenarios showed the largest benefits from switching current infusion patients to cladribine tablets were realized in facilities having moderate to high resource utilization. CONCLUSIONS: This model provides facility decision-makers the ability to assess the efficiency of using cladribine tablets rather than an infusion-based DMD. The simulation quantified the benefits gained from reducing the burden on facility resources by switching some patients with RRMS from infusion-based DMDs to cladribine tablets. Overall, modeled outcomes increased in future scenarios owing to an increase in demand, although the introduction of cladribine tablets reduced this impact.

Synthesis and biological activity of N-substituted-3-chloro-2-azetidinones.

2-Aminobenzothiazole-6-carboxylic acid (1), on condensation with chloroacetyl chloride yielded 2-(2-chloroacetylamino)benzothiazole-6-carboxylic acid (2), which on amination with hydrazine hydrate yielded in turn 2-(2-hydrazinoacetylamino)benzo-thiazole-6-carboxylic acid (3). Compound 3, on condensation with various aromatic aldehydes afforded a series of 2-{2-[N'-(arylidene)hydrazino]acetylamino}benzothiazole-6-carboxylic acids 4a-h, which upon dehydrative annulation in the presence of chloroacetyl chloride and triethylamine yielded 2-{2-[3-chloro-2-(aryl)-4-oxoazetidin-1-ylamino]-acetylamino}benzothiazole-6-carboxylic acids 5a-h. The synthesized compounds 4a-h and 5a-h were screened for their antibacterial activity against four microorganisms: Staphylococcus aureus (Gram positive), Bacillus subtilis (Gram positive), Psuedomonas aeruginosa (Gram negative) and Escherichia coli (Gram negative). They were found to exhibit good to moderate antibacterial activity. The antifungal activity of these compounds were also tested against three different fungal species. None of them were active against the species tested.