Seasonal variation in the relationship between leaf chlorophyll content and photosynthetic capacity.

Accurate estimation of photosynthesis is crucial for ecosystem carbon cycle modelling. Previous studies have established an empirical relationship between photosynthetic capacity (maximum carboxylation rate, Vcmax; maximum electron transport rate, Jmax) and leaf chlorophyll (Chl) content to infer global photosynthetic capacity. However, the basis for the Chl-Vcmax relationship remains unclear, which is further evidenced by the temporal variations in the Chl-Vcmax relationship. Using multiple years of observations of four deciduous tree species, we found that Vcmax and Jmax acclimate to photosynthetically active radiation faster (4-8 weeks) than Chl (10-12 weeks). This mismatch in temporal scales causes seasonality in the Vcmax-Chl relationship. To account for the mismatch, we used a Chl fluorescence parameter (quantum yield of Photosystem II, Φ(II)) to tighten the relationship and found Φ(II) × Chl correlated with Vcmax and Jmax (r2 = 0.74 and 0.72 respectively) better than only Chl (r2 = 0.7 and 0.6 respectively). It indicates that Φ(II) accounts for the short-term adjustment of leaf photosynthetic capacity to light, which was not captured by Chl. Our study advances our understanding of the ecophysiological basis for the empirical Vcmax-Chl relationship and how to better infer Vcmax from Chl and fluorescence, which guides large-scale photosynthesis simulations using remote sensing.

China's Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Estimated Using Surface Observations of Coemitted NO2.

Accurate estimates of fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions are of great importance for climate prediction and mitigation regulations but remain a significant challenge for accounting methods relying on economic statistics and emission factors. In this study, we employed a regional data assimilation framework to assimilate in situ NO2 observations, allowing us to combine observation-constrained NOx emissions coemitted with FFCO2 and grid-specific CO2-to-NOx emission ratios to infer the daily FFCO2 emissions over China. The estimated national total for 2016 was 11.4 PgCO2·yr-1, with an uncertainty (1σ) of 1.5 PgCO2·yr-1 that accounted for errors associated with atmospheric transport, inversion framework parameters, and CO2-to-NOx emission ratios. Our findings indicated that widely used "bottom-up" emission inventories generally ignore numerous activity level statistics of FFCO2 related to energy industries and power plants in western China, whereas the inventories are significantly overestimated in developed regions and key urban areas owing to exaggerated emission factors and inexact spatial disaggregation. The optimized FFCO2 estimate exhibited more distinct seasonality with a significant increase in emissions in winter. These findings advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal regime of FFCO2 emissions in China.

Rising CO2 and warming reduce global canopy demand for nitrogen.

Nitrogen (N) limitation has been considered as a constraint on terrestrial carbon uptake in response to rising CO2 and climate change. By extension, it has been suggested that declining carboxylation capacity (Vcmax ) and leaf N content in enhanced-CO2 experiments and satellite records signify increasing N limitation of primary production. We predicted Vcmax using the coordination hypothesis and estimated changes in leaf-level photosynthetic N for 1982-2016 assuming proportionality with leaf-level Vcmax at 25°C. The whole-canopy photosynthetic N was derived using satellite-based leaf area index (LAI) data and an empirical extinction coefficient for Vcmax , and converted to annual N demand using estimated leaf turnover times. The predicted spatial pattern of Vcmax shares key features with an independent reconstruction from remotely sensed leaf chlorophyll content. Predicted leaf photosynthetic N declined by 0.27% yr-1 , while observed leaf (total) N declined by 0.2-0.25% yr-1 . Predicted global canopy N (and N demand) declined from 1996 onwards, despite increasing LAI. Leaf-level responses to rising CO2 , and to a lesser extent temperature, may have reduced the canopy requirement for N by more than rising LAI has increased it. This finding provides an alternative explanation for declining leaf N that does not depend on increasing N limitation.

Critical land change information enhances the understanding of carbon balance in the United States.

Large-scale terrestrial carbon (C) estimating studies using methods such as atmospheric inversion, biogeochemical modeling, and field inventories have produced different results. The goal of this study was to integrate fine-scale processes including land use and land cover change into a large-scale ecosystem framework. We analyzed the terrestrial C budget of the conterminous United States from 1971 to 2015 at 1-km resolution using an enhanced dynamic global vegetation model and comprehensive land cover change data. Effects of atmospheric CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, climate, wildland fire, harvest, and land use/land cover change (LUCC) were considered. We estimate annual C losses from cropland harvest, forest clearcut and thinning, fire, and LUCC were 436.8, 117.9, 10.5, and 10.4 TgC/year, respectively. C stored in ecosystems increased from 119,494 to 127,157 TgC between 1971 and 2015, indicating a mean annual net C sink of 170.3 TgC/year. Although ecosystem net primary production increased by approximately 12.3 TgC/year, most of it was offset by increased C loss from harvest and natural disturbance and increased ecosystem respiration related to forest aging. As a result, the strength of the overall ecosystem C sink did not increase over time. Our modeled results indicate the conterminous US C sink was about 30% smaller than previous modeling studies, but converged more closely with inventory data.

Improved estimates of global terrestrial photosynthesis using information on leaf chlorophyll content.

The terrestrial biosphere plays a critical role in mitigating climate change by absorbing anthropogenic CO2 emissions through photosynthesis. The rate of photosynthesis is determined jointly by environmental variables and the intrinsic photosynthetic capacity of plants (i.e. maximum carboxylation rate; Vcmax25 ). A lack of an effective means to derive spatially and temporally explicit Vcmax25 has long hampered efforts towards estimating global photosynthesis accurately. Recent work suggests that leaf chlorophyll content (Chlleaf ) is strongly related to Vcmax25 , since Chlleaf and Vcmax25 are both correlated with photosynthetic nitrogen content. We used medium resolution satellite images to derive spatially and temporally explicit Chlleaf , which we then used to parameterize Vcmax25 within a terrestrial biosphere model. Modelled photosynthesis estimates were evaluated against measured photosynthesis at 124 eddy covariance sites. The inclusion of Chlleaf in a terrestrial biosphere model improved the spatial and temporal variability of photosynthesis estimates, reducing biases at eddy covariance sites by 8% on average, with the largest improvements occurring for croplands (21% bias reduction) and deciduous forests (15% bias reduction). At the global scale, the inclusion of Chlleaf reduced terrestrial photosynthesis estimates by 9 PgC/year and improved the correlations with a reconstructed solar-induced fluorescence product and a gridded photosynthesis product upscaled from tower measurements. We found positive impacts of Chlleaf on modelled photosynthesis for deciduous forests, croplands, grasslands, savannas and wetlands, but mixed impacts for shrublands and evergreen broadleaf forests and negative impacts for evergreen needleleaf forests and mixed forests. Our results highlight the potential of Chlleaf to reduce the uncertainty of global photosynthesis but identify challenges for incorporating Chlleaf in future terrestrial biosphere models.

Diverse photosynthetic capacity of global ecosystems mapped by satellite chlorophyll fluorescence measurements.

Photosynthetic capacity is often quantified by the Rubisco-limited photosynthetic capacity (i.e. maximum carboxylation rate, Vcmax). It is a key plant functional trait that is widely used in Earth System Models for simulation of the global carbon and water cycles. Measuring Vcmax is time-consuming and laborious; therefore, the spatiotemporal distribution of Vcmax is still poorly understood due to limited measurements of Vcmax. In this study, we used a data assimilation approach to map the spatial variation of Vcmax for global terrestrial ecosystems from a 11-year-long satellite-observed solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) record. In this SIF-derived Vcmax map, the mean Vcmax value for each plant function type (PFT) is found to be comparable to a widely used N-derived Vcmax dataset by Kattge et al. (2009). The gradient of Vcmax along PFTs is clearly revealed even without land cover information as an input. Large seasonal and spatial variations of Vcmax are found within each PFT, especially for diverse crop rotation systems. The distribution of major crop belts, characterized with high Vcmax values, is highlighted in this Vcmax map. Legume plants are characterized with high Vcmax values. This Vcmax map also clearly illustrates the emerging soybean revolution in South America where Vcmax is the highest among the world. The gradient of Vcmax in Amazon is found to follow the transition of soil types with different soil N and P contents. This study suggests that satellite-observed SIF is powerful in deriving the important plant functional trait, i.e. Vcmax, for global climate change studies.

Peak season plant activity shift towards spring is reflected by increasing carbon uptake by extratropical ecosystems.

Climate change is lengthening the growing season of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical terrestrial ecosystems, but little is known regarding the timing and dynamics of the peak season of plant activity. Here, we use 34-year satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) observations and atmospheric CO2 concentration and δ13 C isotope measurements at Point Barrow (Alaska, USA, 71°N) to study the dynamics of the peak of season (POS) of plant activity. Averaged across extratropical (>23°N) non-evergreen-dominated pixels, NDVI data show that the POS has advanced by 1.2 ± 0.6 days per decade in response to the spring-ward shifts of the start (1.0 ± 0.8 days per decade) and end (1.5 ± 1.0 days per decade) of peak activity, and the earlier onset of the start of growing season (1.4 ± 0.8 days per decade), while POS maximum NDVI value increased by 7.8 ± 1.8% for 1982-2015. Similarly, the peak day of carbon uptake, based on calculations from atmospheric CO2 concentration and δ13 C data, is advancing by 2.5 ± 2.6 and 4.3 ± 2.9 days per decade, respectively. POS maximum NDVI value shows strong negative relationships (p < .01) with the earlier onset of the start of growing season and POS days. Given that the maximum solar irradiance and day length occur before the average POS day, the earlier occurrence of peak plant activity results in increased plant productivity. Both the advancing POS day and increasing POS vegetation greenness are consistent with the shifting peak productivity towards spring and the increasing annual maximum values of gross and net ecosystem productivity simulated by coupled Earth system models. Our results further indicate that the decline in autumn NDVI is contributing the most to the overall browning of the northern high latitudes (>50°N) since 2011. The spring-ward shift of peak season plant activity is expected to disrupt the synchrony of biotic interaction and exert strong biophysical feedbacks on climate by modifying the surface albedo and energy budget.

Changes in vegetation phenology are not reflected in atmospheric CO2 and 13 C/12 C seasonality.

Northern terrestrial ecosystems have shown global warming-induced advances in start, delays in end, and thus increased lengths of growing season and gross photosynthesis in recent decades. The tradeoffs between seasonal dynamics of two opposing fluxes, CO2 uptake through photosynthesis and release through respiration, determine the influence of the terrestrial ecosystem on the atmospheric CO2 and 13 C/12 C seasonality. Here, we use four CO2 observation stations in the Northern Hemisphere, namely Alert, La Jolla, Point Barrow, and Mauna Loa Observatory, to determine how changes in vegetation productivity and phenology, respiration, and air temperature affect both the atmospheric CO2 and 13 C/12 C seasonality. Since the 1960s, the only significant long-term trend of CO2 and 13 C/12 C seasonality was observed at the northern most station, Alert, where the spring CO2 drawdown dates advanced by 0.65 ± 0.55 days yr-1 , contributing to a nonsignificant increase in length of the CO2 uptake period (0.74 ± 0.67 days yr-1 ). For Point Barrow station, vegetation phenology changes in well-watered ecosystems such as the Canadian and western Siberian wetlands contributed the most to 13 C/12 C seasonality while the CO2 seasonality was primarily linked to nontree vegetation. Our results indicate significant increase in the Northern Hemisphere soil respiration. This means, increased respiration of 13 C depleted plant materials cancels out the 12 C gain from enhanced vegetation activities during the start and end of growing season. These findings suggest therefore that parallel warming-induced increases both in photosynthesis and respiration contribute to the long-term stability of CO2 and 13 C/12 C seasonality under changing climate and vegetation activity. The summer photosynthesis and the soil respiration in the dormant seasons have become more vigorous which lead to increased peak-to-through CO2 amplitude. As the relative magnitude of the increased photosynthesis in summer months is more than the increased respiration in dormant months, we have the increased overall carbon uptake rates in the northern ecosystems.

Leaf chlorophyll content as a proxy for leaf photosynthetic capacity.

Improving the accuracy of estimates of forest carbon exchange is a central priority for understanding ecosystem response to increased atmospheric CO2 levels and improving carbon cycle modelling. However, the spatially continuous parameterization of photosynthetic capacity (Vcmax) at global scales and appropriate temporal intervals within terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) remains unresolved. This research investigates the use of biochemical parameters for modelling leaf photosynthetic capacity within a deciduous forest. Particular attention is given to the impacts of seasonality on both leaf biophysical variables and physiological processes, and their interdependent relationships. Four deciduous tree species were sampled across three growing seasons (2013-2015), approximately every 10 days for leaf chlorophyll content (ChlLeaf ) and canopy structure. Leaf nitrogen (NArea ) was also measured during 2014. Leaf photosynthesis was measured during 2014-2015 using a Li-6400 gas-exchange system, with A-Ci curves to model Vcmax. Results showed that seasonality and variations between species resulted in weak relationships between Vcmax normalized to 25°C (Vcmax25) and NArea (R2  = 0.62, P < 0.001), whereas ChlLeaf demonstrated a much stronger correlation with Vcmax25 (R2  = 0.78, P < 0.001). The relationship between ChlLeaf and NArea was also weak (R2  = 0.47, P < 0.001), possibly due to the dynamic partitioning of nitrogen, between and within photosynthetic and nonphotosynthetic fractions. The spatial and temporal variability of Vcmax25 was mapped using Landsat TM/ETM satellite data across the forest site, using physical models to derive ChlLeaf . TBMs largely treat photosynthetic parameters as either fixed constants or varying according to leaf nitrogen content. This research challenges assumptions that simple NArea -Vcmax25 relationships can reliably be used to constrain photosynthetic capacity in TBMs, even within the same plant functional type. It is suggested that ChlLeaf provides a more accurate, direct proxy for Vcmax25 and is also more easily retrievable from satellite data. These results have important implications for carbon modelling within deciduous ecosystems.

Effects of LiDAR point density, sampling size and height threshold on estimation accuracy of crop biophysical parameters.

Vegetation leaf area index (LAI), height, and aboveground biomass are key biophysical parameters. Corn is an important and globally distributed crop, and reliable estimations of these parameters are essential for corn yield forecasting, health monitoring and ecosystem modeling. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) is considered an effective technology for estimating vegetation biophysical parameters. However, the estimation accuracies of these parameters are affected by multiple factors. In this study, we first estimated corn LAI, height and biomass (R2 = 0.80, 0.874 and 0.838, respectively) using the original LiDAR data (7.32 points/m2), and the results showed that LiDAR data could accurately estimate these biophysical parameters. Second, comprehensive research was conducted on the effects of LiDAR point density, sampling size and height threshold on the estimation accuracy of LAI, height and biomass. Our findings indicated that LiDAR point density had an important effect on the estimation accuracy for vegetation biophysical parameters, however, high point density did not always produce highly accurate estimates, and reduced point density could deliver reasonable estimation results. Furthermore, the results showed that sampling size and height threshold were additional key factors that affect the estimation accuracy of biophysical parameters. Therefore, the optimal sampling size and the height threshold should be determined to improve the estimation accuracy of biophysical parameters. Our results also implied that a higher LiDAR point density, larger sampling size and height threshold were required to obtain accurate corn LAI estimation when compared with height and biomass estimations. In general, our results provide valuable guidance for LiDAR data acquisition and estimation of vegetation biophysical parameters using LiDAR data.

Global vegetation productivity response to climatic oscillations during the satellite era.

Climate control on global vegetation productivity patterns has intensified in response to recent global warming. Yet, the contributions of the leading internal climatic variations to global vegetation productivity are poorly understood. Here, we use 30 years of global satellite observations to study climatic variations controls on continental and global vegetation productivity patterns. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (La Niña, neutral, and El Niño years) appear to be a weaker control on global-scale vegetation productivity than previously thought, although continental-scale responses are substantial. There is also clear evidence that other non-ENSO climatic variations have a strong control on spatial patterns of vegetation productivity mainly through their influence on temperature. Among the eight leading internal climatic variations, the East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern extensively controls the ensuing year vegetation productivity of the most productive tropical and temperate forest ecosystems of the Earth's vegetated surface through directionally consistent influence on vegetation greenness. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations do not capture the observed patterns of vegetation productivity responses to internal climatic variations. Our analyses show the ubiquitous control of climatic variations on vegetation productivity and can further guide CCSM and other Earth system models developments to represent vegetation response patterns to unforced variability. Several winter time internal climatic variation indices show strong potentials on predicting growing season vegetation productivity two to six seasons ahead which enables national governments and farmers forecast crop yield to ensure supplies of affordable food, famine early warning, and plan management options to minimize yield losses ahead of time.

Instantaneous-to-daily GPP upscaling schemes based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model: correcting the overestimation of GPP by directly using daily average meteorological inputs.

Daily canopy photosynthesis is usually temporally upscaled from instantaneous (i.e., seconds) photosynthesis rate. The nonlinear response of photosynthesis to meteorological variables makes the temporal scaling a significant challenge. In this study, two temporal upscaling schemes of daily photosynthesis, the integrated daily model (IDM) and the segmented daily model (SDM), are presented by considering the diurnal variations of meteorological variables based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model. The two models, as well as a simple average daily model (SADM) with daily average meteorological inputs, were validated using the tower-derived gross primary production (GPP) to assess their abilities in simulating daily photosynthesis. The results showed IDM closely followed the seasonal trend of the tower-derived GPP with an average RMSE of 1.63 g C m(-2) day(-1), and an average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) of 0.87. SDM performed similarly to IDM in GPP simulation but decreased the computation time by >66%. SADM overestimated daily GPP by about 15% during the growing season compared to IDM. Both IDM and SDM greatly decreased the overestimation by SADM, and improved the simulation of daily GPP by reducing the RMSE by 34 and 30%, respectively. The results indicated that IDM and SDM are useful temporal upscaling approaches, and both are superior to SADM in daily GPP simulation because they take into account the diurnally varying responses of photosynthesis to meteorological variables. SDM is computationally more efficient, and therefore more suitable for long-term and large-scale GPP simulations.

Responses of phenology to preseason drought and soil temperature for different land cover types on the Mongolian Plateau.

Drought and heat caused major disturbance in nature by interfering with plant phenology, and can also alter the vulnerability and resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. Existing research on the Mongolian Plateau has primarily focused on studying the response of the start (SOS) and end (EOS) of the growing season to drought and heat variations. However, there is still a lack of comprehensive understanding regarding the coupled effects of drought and heat on phenology across different land cover types. In this study, we retrieved SOS and EOS based on 34-year (1982-2015) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS). Results showed that grasslands and the Gobi-Desert show rapid advancement in SOS, and forests presented the slowest advancement in SOS, but SOS in croplands were delayed. EOS across four land cover types advanced, with the Gobi-Desert showed the highest rate of advancement and forests the lowest. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and soil temperature as the indicators of drought and thermal conditions, the responses of SOS and EOS to these two climate variables were evaluated. The advanced SOS driven by lower drought severity was detected in forests, grasslands, croplands and the Gobi-Desert. The dominant response of EOS to drought severity was positive in croplands, grasslands and forests, except for the Gobi-Desert, where drought severity had negative effects on EOS. Compared with the daily average soil temperature (STmean), the daily maximum soil temperature (STmax, daytime), and the daily minimum soil temperature (STmin, nighttime), the daily diurnal soil temperature range (DSTR, where DSTR = STmax - STmin) between night and day were the most suitable indicators for assessing the response of SOS and EOS to soil temperature. Strong negative correlation between SOS and the preseason DSTR was pronounced in all land cover types on the Mongolian Plateau. However, EOS was negatively correlated with the preseason DSTR only in the Gobi-Desert. Last but not least, normalized sensitivity assessments reveal that the negative impacts of DSTR on SOS and EOS were the main controlling factors on the Mongolian Plateau phenology, followed by the couple negative effects of drought severity and DSTR.

Comparative assessment of leaf photosynthetic capacity datasets for estimating terrestrial gross primary productivity.

The maximum Rubisco carboxylation rate normalized to 25 °C (Vcmax25) is a key parameter in terrestrial biosphere models for simulating carbon cycling. Recently, global distributions of Vcmax25 have been derived through various methods and different data, including field measurements, ecological optimality theory (EOT), leaf chlorophyll content (LCC), and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF). However, direct validation poses challenges due to high uncertainty arising from limited ground-based observations. This study conducted an indirect evaluation of four Vcmax25 datasets by assessing the accuracy of gross primary productivity (GPP) simulated using the Biosphere-atmosphere Exchange Process Simulator (BEPS) at both site and global scales. Results indicate that, compared to utilizing Vcmax25 fixed by plant functional types (PFT) derived from field measurements, incorporating Vcmax25 derived from SIF and LCC (SIF + LCC), or solely LCC, into BEPS significantly reduces simulated errors in the annual total GPP, with a 23.2 %-25.1 % decrease in the average absolute bias across 196 FLUXNET2015 sites. Daily GPP for evergreen needleleaf forests, deciduous broadleaf forests, shrublands, grasslands, and croplands shows a 7.8 %-27.6 % decrease in absolute bias, primarily attributed to reduced simulation errors during off-peak seasons of vegetation growth. Conversely, the annual total GPP error simulated using EOT-derived Vcmax25 increases slightly (2.2 %) compared to that simulated using PFT-fixed Vcmax25. This is primarily due to a significant overestimation in evergreen broadleaf forests and underestimation in croplands, despite slight increased accuracy for other PFTs. The global annual GPP simulated using Vcmax25 with seasonal variations (i.e., LCC Vcmax25 and SIF + LCC Vcmax25) yields a 4.3 %-7.3 % decrease compared to that simulated using PFT-fixed Vcmax25. Compared to FLUXCOM and GOSIF GPP products, the GPP simulated based on SIF + LCC Vcmax25 and LCC Vcmax25 demonstrates better consistency (R2 = 0.91-0.93, RMSE = 314.2-376.6 g C m-2 yr-1). This study underscores the importance of accurately characterizing the spatiotemporal variations in Vcmax25 for the accurate simulation of global vegetation productivity.

Influence of extreme 2022 heatwave on megacities' anthropogenic CO2 emissions in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River.

An unprecedented heatwave hit the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in August 2022. We analyzed changes of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in 8 megacities over lower-middle reaches of the YRB, using a near-real-time gridded daily CO2 emissions dataset. We suggest that the predominant sources of CO2 emissions in these 8 megacities are from the power and industrial sectors. In comparison to the average emissions for August in 2020 and 2021, the heatwave event led to a total increase in power sector emissions of approximately 2.70 Mt CO2, potentially due to the increase in urban cooling demand. Suzhou experienced the largest increase, with a rise of 1.12 Mt CO2 (12.88 %). Importantly, we observed that changes in daily power emissions exhibited strong linear relationships with temperatures during the heatwave, albeit varying sensitivities across different megacities (with an average of 0.0076 ± 0.0075 Mt d-1 °C-1). Conversely, we find that industrial emissions decreased by a total of 8.45 Mt CO2, with Shanghai seeing the largest decrease of 4.71 Mt CO2, while Hangzhou experienced the largest relative decrease (-21.22 %). It is noteworthy that the majority of megacities rebounded in industrial emissions following the conclusion of the heatwave. We convincingly suggest a tight linkage between the reductions in industrial emissions and China's policy to ensure household power supply. Overall, the reduction in industrial emissions offset the increase in power sector emissions, resulting in weaker emissions for majority of megacities during the heatwave. Despite remaining uncertainties in the emissions data, our study may offer valuable insights into the complexities of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in megacities amidst frequent summer heatwaves intensified by greenhouse warming.

China's current forest age structure will lead to weakened carbon sinks in the near future.

Forests are chiefly responsible for the terrestrial carbon sink that greatly reduces the buildup of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and alleviates climate change. Current predictions of terrestrial carbon sinks in the future have so far ignored the variation of forest carbon uptake with forest age. Here, we predict the role of China's current forest age in future carbon sink capacity by generating a high-resolution (30 m) forest age map in 2019 over China's landmass using satellite and forest inventory data and deriving forest growth curves using measurements of forest biomass and age in 3,121 plots. As China's forests currently have large proportions of young and middle-age stands, we project that China's forests will maintain high growth rates for about 15 years. However, as the forests grow older, their net primary productivity will decline by 5.0% ± 1.4% in 2050, 8.4% ± 1.6% in 2060, and 16.6% ± 2.8% in 2100, indicating weakened carbon sinks in the near future. The weakening of forest carbon sinks can be potentially mitigated by optimizing forest age structure through selective logging and implementing new or improved afforestation. This finding is important not only for the global carbon cycle and climate projections but also for developing forest management strategies to enhance land sinks by alleviating the age effect.

Large diurnal compensatory effects mitigate the response of Amazonian forests to atmospheric warming and drying.

Photosynthesis and evapotranspiration in Amazonian forests are major contributors to the global carbon and water cycles. However, their diurnal patterns and responses to atmospheric warming and drying at regional scale remain unclear, hindering the understanding of global carbon and water cycles. Here, we used proxies of photosynthesis and evapotranspiration from the International Space Station to reveal a strong depression of dry season afternoon photosynthesis (by 6.7 ± 2.4%) and evapotranspiration (by 6.1 ± 3.1%). Photosynthesis positively responds to vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in the morning, but negatively in the afternoon. Furthermore, we projected that the regionally depressed afternoon photosynthesis will be compensated by their increases in the morning in future dry seasons. These results shed new light on the complex interplay of climate with carbon and water fluxes in Amazonian forests and provide evidence on the emerging environmental constraints of primary productivity that may improve the robustness of future projections.

The 10-m cotton maps in Xinjiang, China during 2018-2021.

Cotton maps (10 m) of Xinjiang (XJ_COTTON10), which is the largest cotton production region of China, were produced from 2018 to 2021 through supervised classification. A two-step mapping strategy, i.e., cropland mapping followed by cotton extraction, was employed to improve the accuracy and efficiency of cotton mapping for a large region of about 1.66 million km2 with high heterogeneity. Additionally, the time-series satellite data related to spectral, textural, structural, and phenological features were combined and used in a supervised random forest classifier. The cotton/non-cotton classification model achieved overall accuracies of about 95% and 90% on the test samples of the same and adjacent years, respectively. The proposed two-step cotton mapping strategy proved promising and effective in producing multi-year and consistent cotton maps. XJ_COTTON10 agreed well with the statistical areas of cotton at the county level (R2 = 0.84-0.94). This is the first cotton mapping for the entire Xinjiang at 10-meter resolution, which can provide a basis for high-precision cotton monitoring and policymaking in China.