Climate change and mortality rates of COPD and asthma: A global analysis from 2000 to 2018.

BACKGROUND: Climate change plays a significant role in global health threats, particularly with respiratory diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma, but the long-term global-scale impact of climate change on these diseases' mortality remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) of COPD and asthma at national levels. METHODS: We used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data of ASMR of COPD and asthma from 2000 to 2018. The climate change index was represented as the deviance percentage of temperature (DPT) and relative humidity (DPRH), calculated based on 19-year temperature and humidity averages. Annual temperature, RH, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels in 185 countries/regions were obtained from ERA5 and the OECD's environmental statistics database. General linear mixed-effect regression models were used to examine the associations between climate change with the log of ASMR (LASMR) of COPD and asthma. RESULTS: After adjusting for annual PM2.5, SDI level, smoking prevalence, and geographical regions, a 0.26% increase in DPT was associated with decreases of 0.016, 0.017, and 0.014 per 100,000 people in LASMR of COPD and 0.042, 0.046, and 0.040 per 100,000 people in LASMR of asthma for both genders, males, and females. A 2.68% increase in DPRH was associated with increases of 0.009 and 0.011 per 100,000 people in LASMR of COPD. We observed a negative association of DPT with LASMR for COPD in countries/regions with temperatures ranging from 3.8 to 29.9 °C and with LASMR for asthma ranging from -5.3-29.9 °C. However, we observed a positive association of DPRH with LASMR for both COPD and asthma in the RH range of 41.2-67.2%. CONCLUSION: Climate change adaptation and mitigation could be crucial in reducing the associated COPD and asthma mortality rates, particularly in regions most vulnerable to temperature and humidity fluctuations.

Exposure to ambient air pollutants with kidney function decline in chronic kidney disease patients.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has been a global public health problem with many adverse outcomes, but data are lacking regarding the relationship between air pollutants and risk of renal progression in patients with CKD. This study was to investigate whether 1-year average exposure to ambient air pollutants -CO, NO, NO2, SO2, O3, PM2.5, and PM10-is related to renal function deterioration among patients with CKD. A total of 5301 CKD patients were included in this study between October 2008 and February 2016. To estimate each patient's exposure to ambient air pollution, we used the 24-h ambient air pollution concentration monitoring data collected one year prior to renal progression or their last renal function assessment. Renal progression was considered when estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decreased more than 25% from the baseline eGFR. Cox proportional hazard regression was performed to calculate hazard ratios (HRs). Among 5301 patients with CKD, 1813 (34.20%) developed renal progression during the 30.48 ± 14.99-month follow-up. Patients with the highest quartile exposure to CO [HR = 1.53 (95% CI: 1.24, 1.88)], NO [HR = 1.38 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.71)], NO2 [HR = 1.63 (95% CI: 1.36, 1.97)], SO2 [HR = 2.27 (95% CI: 1.83, 2.82)], PM2.5 [HR = 7.58 (95% CI: 5.97, 9.62)], and PM10 [HR = 3.68 (95% CI: 2.84, 4.78)] had a significantly higher risk of renal progression than those with the lowest quartile exposure. In the multipollutant model, the analyses yielded to similar results. These results reinforce the importance of measures to mitigate air pollution and strategies to prevent worsening of kidney function in patients with CKD. One-year high exposure to ambient CO, NO, NO2, SO2, PM2.5, and PM10 is significantly associated with deteriorated kidney function in patients with CKD among Taiwanese adults.

Long-term exposure to ozone and sulfur dioxide increases the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus among aged 30 to 50 adult population.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Worldwide, the information regarding the associations between long-term exposure to ozone (O3) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) and the development of type 2 diabetes remains scarce, especially in Asia. This study aimed to investigate the long-term effects of exposure to ambient O3 and SO2 on the incidence of type 2 diabetes with consideration of other air pollutants in Taiwanese adults aged 30 to 50 years. METHODS: A total of 6,426,802 non-diabetic participants aged between 30 and 50 years old were obtained from the National Health Insurance Research Database between 2005 and 2016. Incident type 2 diabetes was the main diagnosis at medical visits. Air quality data were provided by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration. The air pollutant concentrations for each participant were estimated using the ordinary kriging method to interpolate daily concentrations of O3, SO2, carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), suspended fine particles (with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm; PM2.5), and suspended particles (with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 µm; PM10) in residential districts across Taiwan. Six-year average concentrations of pollutants were calculated from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2010, and data were categorized into quartiles. We performed Cox regression models to analyze the long-term effects of exposure to O3 and SO2 on the incidence of type 2 diabetes. RESULTS: The hazard ratio (HR) for the incidence of diabetes per each interquartile range (IQR) increase in ozone exposure (3.30 ppb) was 1.058 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.053, 1.064) and 1.011 (95% CI: 1.007, 1.015) for SO2 exposure (1.77 ppb) after adjusting for age, sex, socioeconomic status, urbanization level, temperature, humidity, and chronic comorbidities (Model 3). Furthermore, for every 3.30 ppb increase of O3, the HR for incident type 2 diabetes was 1.093 (95% CI: 1.087, 1.100) after controlling factors shown in Model 3 plus SO2 and PM2.5. On the other hand, for every 1.77 ppb increase of SO2, the HR for incident type 2 diabetes was 1.073 (95% CI: 1.068, 1.079) after controlling factors shown in Model 3 plus NO2 and PM2.5. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to ambient O3 and SO2 was associated with a higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes for Taiwanese population. Exposure to O3 and SO2 may play a role in the adult early-onset type 2 diabetes.

Contextual Factors and Spatial Patterns of Childhood Malnutrition in Provinces of Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 45% of all children's deaths are associated with malnutrition, and sub-Saharan Africa is hardest hit by this phenomenon. However, information on geographical variations of malnutrition in developing countries is limited. This study examined the geographical distribution and community characteristics associated with child malnutrition in Burkina Faso. DESIGN: Data from the 2011 Burkina Faso Demographic Health Survey were analyzed. A general Kriging interpolation method was used to generate spatial malnutrition patterns. The global Moran's I test was used to identify significant malnutrition spatial patterns. Generalized estimating equations (GEEs) were fitted to examine the association between community level factors and malnutrition. RESULTS: Average rates of stunting and wasting in the communities were 32.48% and 15.05%, respectively. Stunting hotspots were observed in the eastern and northeastern parts of Burkina Faso (i.e. Oudolan, Séno and Yagha, among others), while high rates of wasting were observed in the north-central part. The GEE results revealed lower stunting rates in communities with a higher percentage of households with improved sanitation. Communities with higher rates of professionally assisted births were associated with low wasting rates, while communities with higher rates of households with a low wealth index reported higher rates of wasting. CONCLUSIONS: Spatial statistical models of malnutrition prevalence are useful for indicating hotspots over wide areas and hence, for guiding intervention strategies. This study revealed significant geographical patterns and community factors associated with childhood malnutrition. These factors should be considered in future programs aimed at reducing malnutrition in Burkina Faso.

Effects of insecticide-treated net access and use on infant mortality in Malawi: A pooled analysis of demographic health surveys.

Malaria continues to be among the top causes of death in children and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are considered among the most effective malaria control methods. However, information on the association between universal ITN coverage and infant mortality is limited. A Cox proportional hazard model was applied to Malawi Demographic and Health Surveys to determine the association between ITN access and use and infant mortality between 2004 and 2015-2016. The overall infant mortality rate for the entire period was 47.9/1000 live births. Infants from the ITN-user households exhibited a lower risk of mortality [adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) = 0.61, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.44-0.85] than those from the ITN-nonuser households. Similarly, the infants from the high-access households exhibited a lower risk of death (aHR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.46-0.86) than those from the no-access households. Infants from the ITN-user and high-access households exhibited a significantly lower risk of death (aHR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.40-0.82) than those from the ITN-nonuser and no-access households. The relationship between ITN access and use and infant mortality was significant among female infants with a second or higher birth order and interval of ≥2 years. The findings of the present population-based study emphasized the importance of ITN access and use in providing optimal protection against malaria to infants in Malawi. Malaria control programs should ensure high ITN access and use in Malawi to reduce infant mortality.

Enterobius vermicularis infection: prevalence and risk factors among preschool children in kindergarten in the capital area, Republic of the Marshall Islands.

BACKGROUND: Enterobius vermicularis (pinworm) is one of the most common human parasitic helminths, and children are the most susceptible group. Some behavioral and environmental factors may facilitate pinworm infection. In the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), the status of pinworm infections among children remains unknown. METHODS: In Majuro City, there are 14 kindergartens with a total of 635 preschool children (PSC) whose age range of 5~6 years. The present investigation attempted to determine the pinworm prevalence and associated risk factors as well as investigate whether eggs contaminated the clothes of PSC or the ground and tables in classrooms of 14 kindergartens. Informed consent form and a self-administered questionnaire were given to parents prior to pinworm screening. Perianal specimens were collected by an adhesive scotch tape method, and clothing of belly and hip sites and the ground and tables of the classrooms were inspected using a cellophane tape method to detect any eggs contamination. RESULTS: In total, 392 PSC (5.28 ± 0.56 yrs. old) participated in this project. The overall prevalence of pinworm infection was 22.4% (88/392). Boys (24.5%) had higher prevalence than girls (20.31%) (p = 0.32). PSC aged > 5 years (32.77%) showed a significantly higher prevalence than those aged ≤5 years (17.95%) (p = 0.01). A univariate analysis indicated that PSC who lived in urban areas (22.95%) had a higher prevalence than those who lived in rural areas (20.69%) (p = 0.69). The employment status of the parents showed no association with the pinworm infection rate (p > 0.05). A logistic regression analysis indicated that "having an older sister" produced a higher risk of acquiring pinworm infection for PSC compared to those who did not have an older sister (OR = 2.02; 95%CI = 1.05~3.88; p = 0.04). No significant association between various other risk factors and pinworm infection was found (p > 0.05). Also, no eggs contamination was found on the clothes of the belly and hip sites or on the ground and tables in the 14 kindergartens. CONCLUSIONS: Mass screening and treatment of infected PSC are important measures in pinworm control in the RMI.

Factors associated with insecticide-treated net usage among women of childbearing age in Malawi: a multilevel analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to identify factors at individual and community level influencing insecticide-treated net (ITN) usage among groups of women of childbearing age (WOCBA) in Malawi. METHODS: Factors influencing ITN usage in Malawi were assessed through interviews with 16,130 WOCBA (15-49 years) across 850 communities who participated in the 2015-2016 Malawi Demographic Health Survey. Multilevel logistic regression analysis was used. RESULTS: ITN use was similar between pregnant women and non-pregnant women with children under 5 years (45.9% and 46.9%, respectively), but slightly lower among non-pregnant women without children under 5 years (39.1%). Both individual and community characteristics were associated with ITN use among WOCBA and varied significantly across subgroups. Specifically, non-pregnant women with children under 5 years living in communities where women had high autonomy in health care decisions had an 18% greater odds of using an ITN compared with those from communities where women had low health care autonomy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-1.38). Distance to health care facility influenced ITN usage among pregnant women; those who did not regard distance as a problem had a 44% greater odds of using an ITN than those for whom distance was seen as a problem (aOR = 1.44; 95% CI 1.09-1.89). Number of household members, region, urbanization, and community ITN coverage influenced ITN usage across all WOCBA groups. CONCLUSION: The findings confirmed the importance of assessing various factors affecting ITN usage among groups of WOCBA. Both individual- and community-level factors should be considered when designing and implementing ITN programmes in Malawi.

Association between timing and number of antenatal care visits on uptake of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria during pregnancy among Malawian women.

BACKGROUND: Malaria in pregnancy is a critical public health challenge, and intermittent preventive treatment for malaria during pregnancy (IPTp) has proven to be an effective intervention. However, access to and use of malaria interventions, including IPTp, remains a considerable problem among African women. This cross-sectional study investigated factors, including antenatal care (ANC) attendance (both numbers of visits and timing of the first visit) and socio-demographics, associated with the uptake of the recommended IPTp dose among Malawian women. METHODS: A nationally representative sample of women with a live birth in the 2 years preceding the survey from the Malawi Demographic Health Survey 2015-2016 dataset was analysed. Self-reported data on socio-demographics, ANC attendance and IPTp uptake were collected using a questionnaire and analysed using logistic models. RESULTS: Of the 6549 included women, 1981 (30.2%) took the recommended three or more IPTp doses. Despite inadequate ANC visits, early ANC initiation increased the likelihood of these women taking the recommended IPTp dose; women who initiated ANC in the first [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 2.24; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.44-3.49] and second (aOR = 2.19; 95% CI = 1.56-3.08) trimesters were more likely to take the recommended IPTp dose compared to late initiators. The effect of the number of ANC visits on IPTp uptake was significant in married women (aOR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.42-1.98), and the timing of first ANC visit was associated with IPTp uptake only among rural women (aOR = 2.13, 95% CI = 1.54-2.95). CONCLUSION: ANC attendance is vital in IPTp uptake. The results highlight the need for health care providers to encourage women, particularly those in high-risk groups, to make frequent ANC visits and receive early ANC initiation to ensure high coverage of the recommended IPTp dose.

Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland: toward malaria elimination.

BACKGROUND: Swaziland aims to eliminate malaria by 2020. However, imported cases from neighbouring endemic countries continue to sustain local parasite reservoirs and initiate transmission. As certain weather and climatic conditions may trigger or intensify malaria outbreaks, identification of areas prone to these conditions may aid decision-makers in deploying targeted malaria interventions more effectively. METHODS: Malaria case-surveillance data for Swaziland were provided by Swaziland's National Malaria Control Programme. Climate data were derived from local weather stations and remote sensing images. Climate parameters and malaria cases between 2001 and 2015 were then analysed using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). RESULTS: The incidence of malaria in Swaziland increased between 2005 and 2010, especially in the Lubombo and Hhohho regions. A time-series analysis indicated that warmer temperatures and higher precipitation in the Lubombo and Hhohho administrative regions are conducive to malaria transmission. DLNM showed that the risk of malaria increased in Lubombo when the maximum temperature was above 30 °C or monthly precipitation was above 5 in. In Hhohho, the minimum temperature remaining above 15 °C or precipitation being greater than 10 in. might be associated with malaria transmission. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of short-term climate variations on malaria transmission in Swaziland. The geographic separation of imported and locally acquired malaria, as well as population behaviour, highlight the varying modes of transmission, part of which may be relevant to climate conditions. Thus, the impact of changing climate conditions should be noted as Swaziland moves toward malaria elimination.

Early malaria resurgence in pre-elimination areas in Kokap Subdistrict, Kulon Progo, Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Indonesia is among those countries committed to malaria eradication, with a continuously decreasing incidence of malaria. However, at district level the situation is different. This study presents a case of malaria resurgence Kokap Subdistrict of the Kulon Progo District in Yogyakarta Province, Java after five years of low endemicity. This study also aims to describe the community perceptions and health services delivery situation that contribute to this case. METHODS: All malaria cases (2007-2011) in Kulon Progo District were stratified to annual parasite incidence (API). Two-hundred and twenty-six cases during an outbreak (May 2011 to April 2012) were geocoded by household addresses using a geographic information system (GIS) technique and clusters were identified by SaTScan software analysis (Arc GIS 10.1). Purposive random sampling was conducted on respondents living inside the clusters to identify community perceptions and behaviour related to malaria. Interviews were conducted with malaria health officers to understand the challenges of malaria surveillance and control. RESULTS: After experiencing three consecutive years with API less than 1 per thousand, malaria in Kokap subdistrict increased almost ten times higher than API in the district level and five times higher than national API. Malaria cases were found in all five villages in 2012. One primary and two secondary malaria clusters in Hargotirto and Kalirejo villages were identified during the 2011-2012 outbreak. Most of the respondents were positively aware with malaria signs and activities of health workers to prevent malaria, although some social economic activities could not be hindered. Return transmigrants or migrant workers entering to their villages, reduced numbers of village malaria workers and a surge in malaria cases in the neighbouring district contributed to the resurgence. CONCLUSION: Community perception, awareness and participation could constitute a solid foundation for malaria elimination in Kokap. However, decreasing number of village malaria workers and ineffective communication between primary health centres (PHCs) within boundary areas with similar malaria problems needs attention. Decentralization policy was allegedly the reason for the less integrated malaria control between districts, especially in the cross border areas. Malaria resurgence needs attention particularly when it occurs in an area that is entering the elimination phase.

Seroepidemiology of Toxocara canis infection among primary schoolchildren in the capital area of the Republic of the Marshall Islands.

BACKGROUND: Toxocariasis, which is predominantly caused by Toxocara canis (T. canis) infection, is a common zoonotic parasitosis worldwide; however, the status of toxocariasis endemicity in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) remains unknown. METHODS: A seroepidemiological investigation was conducted among 166 primary school children (PSC) aged 7-12 years from the capital area of the RMI. Western blots based the excretory-secretory antigens of larval T. canis (TcES) was employed, and children were considered seropositive if their serum reacted with TcES when diluted at a titer of 1:64. Information regarding demographic characteristics of and environmental risk factors affecting these children was collected using a structured questionnaire. A logistic regression model was applied to conduct a multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The overall seropositive rate of T. canis infection was 86.75% (144/166). In the univariate analysis, PSC who exhibited a history of feeding dogs at home (OR = 5.52, 95% CI = 1.15-26.61, p = 0.02) and whose parents were employed as nonskilled workers (OR = 2.86, 95% CI = 1.08-7.60, p = 0.03) demonstrated a statistically elevated risk of contracting T. canis infections. Cleaning dog huts with gloves might prevent infection, but yielded nonsignificant effects. The multivariate analysis indicated that parental occupation was the critical risk factor in this study because its effect remained significant after adjusting for other variables; by contrast, the effect of dog feeding became nonsignificant because of other potential confounding factors. No associations were observed among gender, age, consuming raw meat or vegetables, drinking unboiled water, cleaning dog huts with gloves, or touching soil. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first serological investigation of T. canis infection among PSC in the RMI. The high seroprevalence indicates the commonness of T. canis transmission and possible human risk. The fundamental information that the present study provides regarding T. canis epidemiology can facilitate developing strategies for disease prevention and control.

An Integrative Explainable Artificial Intelligence Approach to Analyze Fine-Scale Land-Cover and Land-Use Factors Associated with Spatial Distributions of Place of Residence of Reported Dengue Cases.

Dengue fever is a prevalent mosquito-borne disease that burdens communities in subtropical and tropical regions. Dengue transmission is ecologically complex; several environmental conditions are critical for the spatial and temporal distribution of dengue. Interannual variability and spatial distribution of dengue transmission are well-studied; however, the effects of land cover and use are yet to be investigated. Therefore, we applied an explainable artificial intelligence (AI) approach to integrate the EXtreme Gradient Boosting and Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) methods to evaluate spatial patterns of the residences of reported dengue cases based on various fine-scale land-cover land-use types, Shannon's diversity index, and household density in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, between 2014 and 2015. We found that the proportions of general roads and residential areas play essential roles in dengue case residences with nonlinear patterns. Agriculture-related features were negatively associated with dengue incidence. Additionally, Shannon's diversity index showed a U-shaped relationship with dengue infection, and SHAP dependence plots showed different relationships between various land-use types and dengue incidence. Finally, landscape-based prediction maps were generated from the best-fit model and highlighted high-risk zones within the metropolitan region. The explainable AI approach delineated precise associations between spatial patterns of the residences of dengue cases and diverse land-use characteristics. This information is beneficial for resource allocation and control strategy modification.

Predicting Plasmodium knowlesi transmission risk across Peninsular Malaysia using machine learning-based ecological niche modeling approaches.

The emergence of potentially life-threatening zoonotic malaria caused by Plasmodium knowlesi nearly two decades ago has continued to challenge Malaysia healthcare. With a total of 376 P. knowlesi infections notified in 2008, the number increased to 2,609 cases in 2020 nationwide. Numerous studies have been conducted in Malaysian Borneo to determine the association between environmental factors and knowlesi malaria transmission. However, there is still a lack of understanding of the environmental influence on knowlesi malaria transmission in Peninsular Malaysia. Therefore, our study aimed to investigate the ecological distribution of human P. knowlesi malaria in relation to environmental factors in Peninsular Malaysia. A total of 2,873 records of human P. knowlesi infections in Peninsular Malaysia from 1st January 2011 to 31st December 2019 were collated from the Ministry of Health Malaysia and geolocated. Three machine learning-based models, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and ensemble modeling approach, were applied to predict the spatial variation of P. knowlesi disease risk. Multiple environmental parameters including climate factors, landscape characteristics, and anthropogenic factors were included as predictors in both predictive models. Subsequently, an ensemble model was developed based on the output of both MaxEnt and XGBoost. Comparison between models indicated that the XGBoost has higher performance as compared to MaxEnt and ensemble model, with AUCROC values of 0.933 ± 0.002 and 0.854 ± 0.007 for train and test datasets, respectively. Key environmental covariates affecting human P. knowlesi occurrence were distance to the coastline, elevation, tree cover, annual precipitation, tree loss, and distance to the forest. Our models indicated that the disease risk areas were mainly distributed in low elevation (75-345 m above mean sea level) areas along the Titiwangsa mountain range and inland central-northern region of Peninsular Malaysia. The high-resolution risk map of human knowlesi malaria constructed in this study can be further utilized for multi-pronged interventions targeting community at-risk, macaque populations, and mosquito vectors.

IgE antibody responses in cerebrospinal fluids relate to the brain pathologic injury of hosts with Angiostrongylus cantonensis infection.

BACKGROUND: The immunoglobulin E (IgE) response to Angiostrongylus cantonensis infection increases in the host. This study analyzed the IgG and IgE responses detected in different body fluids of A. cantonensis-infected mice. METHODS: BALB/c (high susceptibility), CBA (medium), and C57BL/6 and C57BL/10 (resistance) strain mice were used in this study. The levels of IgM, IgG, and IgE in the serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) from infected mice were compared. A. cantonensis-reactive antigens from BALB/c and C57BL/6 mice CSF were also analyzed. RESULTS: Antibodies against fifth-stage larvae (L5) antigens increased in mice CSF, particularly IgE, relate to worm rejection and the susceptibility of different mouse strains. The increased IgE level in BALB/c mice CSF is lower than that from others, suggesting IgE response in brain is more important than that in serum. Anti-L5 and anti-excretory/secretory (ES) antigen IgE and IgG responses in CSF were analyzed. In addition, the antibody-dependent eosinophil-mediated cytotoxicity induced by anti-excretory/secretory (ES) antigen antibodies may be the reason of severe brain inflammation in infected BALB/c mice. IgE and IgG antibodies against a 105 kDa protein of L5 antigen was detected at week 3 post-infection in C57BL/6 mice and week 5 post-infection in BALB/c mice. We suggest that 105 kDa protein is related with the antibody response of A. cantonensis-infected mice. CONCLUSION: We found that IgE antibodies in mice CSF against L5 antigens related to worm rejection in mice brains. This study may help to identify specific angiostrongyliasis markers that can be applied for clinical diagnosis and treatment in future.

Corrigendum: Predicting Plasmodium knowlesi transmission risk across Peninsular Malaysia using machine learning-based ecological niche modeling approaches.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2023.1126418.].

Spatial synchrony of malaria outbreaks in a highland region of Ethiopia.

To understand the drivers and consequences of malaria in epidemic-prone regions, it is important to know whether epidemics emerge independently in different areas as a consequence of local contingencies, or whether they are synchronised across larger regions as a result of climatic fluctuations and other broad-scale drivers. To address this question, we collected historical malaria surveillance data for the Amhara region of Ethiopia and analysed them to assess the consistency of various indicators of malaria risk and determine the dominant spatial and temporal patterns of malaria within the region. We collected data from a total of 49 districts from 1999-2010. Data availability was better for more recent years and more data were available for clinically diagnosed outpatient malaria cases than confirmed malaria cases. Temporal patterns of outpatient malaria case counts were correlated with the proportion of outpatients diagnosed with malaria and confirmed malaria case counts. The proportion of outpatients diagnosed with malaria was spatially clustered, and these cluster locations were generally consistent from year to year. Outpatient malaria cases exhibited spatial synchrony at distances up to 300 km, supporting the hypothesis that regional climatic variability is an important driver of epidemics. Our results suggest that decomposing malaria risk into separate spatial and temporal components may be an effective strategy for modelling and forecasting malaria risk across large areas. They also emphasise both the value and limitations of working with historical surveillance datasets and highlight the importance of enhancing existing surveillance efforts.

Cross-correlation map analyses show weather variation influences on mosquito abundance patterns in Saginaw County, Michigan, 1989-2005.

Weather is important determinant of mosquito abundance that, in turn, influences vectorborne disease dynamics. In temperate regions, transmission generally is seasonal as mosquito abundance and behavior varies with temperature, precipitation, and other meteorological factors. We investigated how such factors affected species-specific mosquito abundance patterns in Saginaw County, MI, during a 17-yr period. Systematic sampling was undertaken at 22 trapping sites from May to September, during 1989-2005, for 19,228 trap-nights and 300,770 mosquitoes in total. Aedes vexans (Meigen), Culex pipiens L. and Culex restuans Theobald, the most abundant species, were analyzed. Weather data included local daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, total precipitation, and average relative humidity. In addition to standard statistical methods, cross-correlation mapping was used to evaluate temporal associations with various lag periods between weather variables and species-specific mosquito abundances. Overall, the average number of mosquitoes was 4.90 per trap-night for Ae. vexans, 2.12 for Cx. pipiens, and 1.23 for Cx. restuans. Statistical analysis of the considerable temporal variability in species-specific abundances indicated that precipitation and relative humidity 1 wk prior were significantly positively associated with Ae. vexans, whereas elevated maximum temperature had a negative effect during summer. Cx. pipiens abundance was positively influenced by the preceding minimum temperature in the early season but negatively associated with precipitation during summer and with maximum temperature in July and August. Cx. restuans showed the least weather association, with only relative humidity 2-24 d prior being linked positively during late spring-early summer. The recently developed analytical method applied in this study could enhance our understanding of the influences of weather variability on mosquito population dynamics.

Satellite Microwave Remote Sensing for Environmental Modeling of Mosquito Population Dynamics.

Environmental variability has important influences on mosquito life cycles and understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of mosquito populations is critical for mosquito control and vector-borne disease prevention. Meteorological data used for model-based predictions of mosquito abundance and life cycle dynamics are typically acquired from ground-based weather stations; however, data availability and completeness are often limited by sparse networks and resource availability. In contrast, environmental measurements from satellite remote sensing are more spatially continuous and can be retrieved automatically. This study compared environmental measurements from the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS (AMSR-E) and in situ weather station data to examine their ability to predict the abundance of two important mosquito species (Aedes vexans and Culex tarsalis) in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA from 2005 to 2010. The AMSR-E land parameters included daily surface water inundation fraction, surface air temperature, soil moisture, and microwave vegetation opacity. The AMSR-E derived models had better fits and higher forecasting accuracy than models based on weather station data despite the relatively coarse (25-km) spatial resolution of the satellite data. In the AMSR-E models, air temperature and surface water fraction were the best predictors of Aedes vexans, whereas air temperature and vegetation opacity were the best predictors of Cx. tarsalis abundance. The models were used to extrapolate spatial, seasonal, and interannual patterns of climatic suitability for mosquitoes across eastern South Dakota. Our findings demonstrate that environmental metrics derived from satellite passive microwave radiometry are suitable for predicting mosquito population dynamics and can potentially improve the effectiveness of mosquito-borne disease early warning systems.

Linguistic Pattern-Infused Dual-Channel Bidirectional Long Short-term Memory With Attention for Dengue Case Summary Generation From the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases-Mail Database: Algorithm Development Study.

BACKGROUND: Globalization and environmental changes have intensified the emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases worldwide, such as outbreaks of dengue fever in Southeast Asia. Collaboration on region-wide infectious disease surveillance systems is therefore critical but difficult to achieve because of the different transparency levels of health information systems in different countries. Although the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED)-mail is the most comprehensive international expert-curated platform providing rich disease outbreak information on humans, animals, and plants, the unstructured text content of the reports makes analysis for further application difficult. OBJECTIVE: To make monitoring the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia more efficient, this study aims to develop an automatic summary of the alert articles from ProMED-mail, a huge textual data source. In this paper, we proposed a text summarization method that uses natural language processing technology to automatically extract important sentences from alert articles in ProMED-mail emails to generate summaries. Using our method, we can quickly capture crucial information to help make important decisions regarding epidemic surveillance. METHODS: Our data, which span a period from 1994 to 2019, come from the ProMED-mail website. We analyzed the collected data to establish a unique Taiwan dengue corpus that was validated with professionals' annotations to achieve almost perfect agreement (Cohen κ=90%). To generate a ProMED-mail summary, we developed a dual-channel bidirectional long short-term memory with attention mechanism with infused latent syntactic features to identify key sentences from the alerting article. RESULTS: Our method is superior to many well-known machine learning and neural network approaches in identifying important sentences, achieving a macroaverage F1 score of 93%. Moreover, it can successfully extract the relevant correct information on dengue fever from a ProMED-mail alerting article, which can help researchers or general users to quickly understand the essence of the alerting article at first glance. In addition to verifying the model, we also recruited 3 professional experts and 2 students from related fields to participate in a satisfaction survey on the generated summaries, and the results show that 84% (63/75) of the summaries received high satisfaction ratings. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed approach successfully fuses latent syntactic features into a deep neural network to analyze the syntactic, semantic, and contextual information in the text. It then exploits the derived information to identify crucial sentences in the ProMED-mail alerting article. The experiment results show that the proposed method is not only effective but also outperforms the compared methods. Our approach also demonstrates the potential for case summary generation from ProMED-mail alerting articles. In terms of practical application, when a new alerting article arrives, our method can quickly identify the relevant case information, which is the most critical part, to use as a reference or for further analysis.

Updating the Insecticide Resistance Status of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Asia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are two important vectors of several important arboviruses, including the dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Insecticide application is an important approach to reduce vector abundance during Aedes spp.-borne outbreaks in the absence of effective vaccines and treatments. However, insecticide overuse can result in the development of resistance, and careful monitoring of resistance markers is required. METHODS: This meta-analysis and systematic review explored the spatial and temporal patterns of insecticide resistance in Asia from 2000 to 2021. PubMed, Scopus, EbscoHost, and Embase were used to enhance the search capability. The random-effects model was applied for the 94 studies that met our inclusion criteria for qualitative synthesis and meta-analysis. RESULTS: Four major insecticides were studied (malathion, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane, permethrin, and deltamethrin). Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane resistance rates were high in both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus (68% and 64%, respectively). Conversely, malathion resistance was less prevalent in Ae. aegypti (3%), and deltamethrin resistance was less common in Ae. albopictus (2%). Ae. aegypti displayed consistently high resistance rates (35%) throughout the study period, whereas the rate of insecticide resistance in Ae. albopictus increased from 5% to 12%. The rates of the major kdr mutations F1534C, V1016G, and S989P were 29%, 26%, and 22%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Insecticide resistance in both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus is widespread in Asia, although the rates vary by country. Continuous monitoring of the resistance markers and modification of the control strategies will be important for preventing unexpected outbreaks. This systematic review and meta-analysis provided up-to-date information on insecticide resistance in dengue-endemic countries in Asia.