Evidence that nonsignificant results are sometimes preferred: Reverse P-hacking or selective reporting?

There is increased concern about poor scientific practices arising from an excessive focus on P-values. Two particularly worrisome practices are selective reporting of significant results and 'P-hacking'. The latter is the manipulation of data collection, usage, or analyses to obtain statistically significant outcomes. Here, we introduce the novel, to our knowledge, concepts of selective reporting of nonsignificant results and 'reverse P-hacking' whereby researchers ensure that tests produce a nonsignificant result. We test whether these practices occur in experiments in which researchers randomly assign subjects to treatment and control groups to minimise differences in confounding variables that might affect the focal outcome. By chance alone, 5% of tests for a group difference in confounding variables should yield a significant result (P < 0.05). If researchers less often report significant findings and/or reverse P-hack to avoid significant outcomes that undermine the ethos that experimental and control groups only differ with respect to actively manipulated variables, we expect significant results from tests for group differences to be under-represented in the literature. We surveyed the behavioural ecology literature and found significantly more nonsignificant P-values reported for tests of group differences in potentially confounding variables than the expected 95% (P = 0.005; N = 250 studies). This novel, to our knowledge, publication bias could result from selective reporting of nonsignificant results and/or from reverse P-hacking. We encourage others to test for a bias toward publishing nonsignificant results in the equivalent context in their own research discipline.

The role of maternal effects on offspring performance in familiar and novel environments.

Maternal effects are an important evolutionary force that may either facilitate adaptation to a new environment or buffer against unfavourable conditions. The degree of variation in traits expressed by siblings from different mothers is often sensitive to environmental conditions. This could generate a Maternal-by-Environment interaction (M × E) that inflates estimates of Genotype-by-Environment effects (G × E). We aimed to test for environment-specific maternal effects (M × E) using a paternal full-sib/half-sib breeding design in the seed beetle Callosobruchus maculatus, where we split and reared offspring from the same mother on two different bean host types-original and novel. Our quantitative genetic analysis indicated that maternal effects were very small on both host types for all the measured life-history traits. There was also little evidence that maternal oviposition preference for a particular host type predicted her offspring's performance on that host. Further, additive genetic variance for most traits was relatively high on both hosts. While there was higher heritability for offspring reared in the novel host, there was no evidence for G × Es, and most cross-host genetic correlations were positive. This suggests that offspring from the same family ranked similarly for performance on both host types. Our results point to a genetic basis of host adaptation in the seed beetle, rather than maternal effects. Even so, we encourage researchers to test for potential M × Es because, due to a lack of testing, it remains unclear how often they arise.

Self-reported tick exposure as an indicator of Lyme disease risk in an endemic region of Quebec, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Lyme disease (LD) and other tick-borne diseases are emerging across Canada. Spatial and temporal LD risk is typically estimated using acarological surveillance and reported human cases, the former not considering human behavior leading to tick exposure and the latter occurring after infection. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective was to explore, at the census subdivision level (CSD), the associations of self-reported tick exposure, alternative risk indicators (predicted tick density, eTick submissions, public health risk level), and ecological variables (Ixodes scapularis habitat suitability index and cumulative degree days > 0 °C) with incidence proportion of LD. A secondary objective was to explore which of these predictor variables were associated with self-reported tick exposure at the CSD level. METHODS: Self-reported tick exposure was measured in a cross-sectional populational health survey conducted in 2018, among 10,790 respondents living in 116 CSDs of the Estrie region, Quebec, Canada. The number of reported LD cases per CSD in 2018 was obtained from the public health department. Generalized linear mixed-effets models accounting for spatial autocorrelation were built to fulfill the objectives. RESULTS: Self-reported tick exposure ranged from 0.0 % to 61.5 % (median 8.9 %) and reported LD incidence rates ranged from 0 to 324 cases per 100,000 person-years, per CSD. A positive association was found between self-reported tick exposure and LD incidence proportion (ß = 0.08, CI = 0.04,0.11, p < 0.0001). The best-fit model included public health risk level (AIC: 144.2), followed by predicted tick density, ecological variables, self-reported tick exposure and eTick submissions (AIC: 158.4, 158.4, 160.4 and 170.1 respectively). Predicted tick density was the only significant predictor of self-reported tick exposure (ß = 0.83, CI = 0.16,1.50, p = 0.02). DISCUSSION: This proof-of-concept study explores self-reported tick exposure as a potential indicator of LD risk using populational survey data. This approach may offer a low-cost and simple tool for evaluating LD risk and deserves further evaluation.

Exploring the threat-sensitive predator avoidance hypothesis on mate competition in two wild populations of Trinidadian guppies.

The intensity of mate competition is often influenced by predation pressure. The threat-sensitive predator avoidance hypothesis predicts that prey should precisely adjust their fitness-related activities to the level of perceived acute predation risk and this effect should be stronger under high background risk. Individuals should compensate during periods of moderate risk for lost opportunities during high risk. Our study examined the interaction between acute and background predation risk on mate competition. Under laboratory conditions, we explored the effects of acute risk (low vs. high) using chemical alarm cue (AC; control (results presented in Chuard et al. (2016)) The effects of adult sex ratio on mating competition in male and female guppies (Poecilia reticulata) in two wild populations. Behav Process 129:1-10), 25 % concentration, and 100 % concentration), and population of origin (low vs. high background risk) on mate competition in guppies (Poecilia reticulata). Surprisingly, males favored courtship over forced mating under acute predation risk irrespective of background risk, potentially benefiting from a female preference for bold males. We discuss our results in the context of chemical threat-sensitivity and resource differences in defendability (e.g. mates vs. food).

Ocean acidification causes mortality in the medusa stage of the cubozoan Carybdea xaymacana.

Ocean pH is decreasing due to anthropogenic activities, and the consequences of this acidification on marine fauna and ecosystems are the subject of an increasing number of studies. Yet, the impact of ocean acidification (OA) on several abundant and ecologically important taxa, such as medusozoans, is poorly documented. To date there have been no studies on the effect of post-2050 OA projections on the medusa stage of jellyfish. As medusae represent the reproductive stage of cnidarians, negative impacts on adult jellyfish could severely impact the long-term survival of this group. Using a laboratory experiment, we investigated the effect of 2300 OA projections (i.e. pH of 7.5) on the mortality rate of the medusa-stage of the cubozoan species Carybdea xaymacana, compared to ambient seawater pH conditions (i.e. pH of 8.1). After a 12-h exposure to OA, C. xaymacana medusae suffered higher mortality rates compared to ambient conditions. This study represents the first evidence of the potential lethal effects of post-2050 OA projections on jellyfish. The higher metabolic rates of cubozoans compared to other cnidarians might make box jellyfish more vulnerable to OA. A decrease in the density of cnidarians could lead to harmful ecological events, such as algal blooms.

Competition for food in 2 populations of a wild-caught fish.

Aggressive behavior when competing for resources is expected to increase as the ratio of competitors-to-resource ratio (CRR) units increases. Females are expected to be more aggressive than males when competing for food when body size is more strongly related to reproductive success in females than in males, whereas aggression is predicted to decrease under high ambient predation risk by natural selection. Under the risk allocation model, however, individuals under high ambient predation risk are expected to be more aggressive, and forage more in the absence of imminent risk than their low risk counterparts. An interaction between adult sex ratio (i.e., adult males/females), ambient predation risk (high vs. low), and sex on intrasexual competition for mates in Trinidadian guppies Poecilia reticulata has been shown. The interaction suggested an increase in aggression rates as CRR increased, except for males from the high predation population. To compare the patterns of competition for food versus mates, we replicated this study by using food patches. We allowed 4 male or 4 female guppies from high and low predation populations to compete for 5, 3, or 1 food patches. The foraging rate was higher in a high rather than low ambient predation risk population. Surprisingly, CRR, sex, and population of origin had no effect on aggression rates. Despite other environmental differences between the 2 populations, the effect of ambient predation risk may be a likely explanation for differences in foraging rates. These results highlight the importance for individuals to secure food despite the cost of competition and predation.

The effects of adult sex ratio on mating competition in male and female guppies (Poecilia reticulata) in two wild populations.

When competing for mates, males typically exhibit higher rates of intrasexual aggression and courtship than females. Operational sex ratio, represented here by adult sex ratio (ASR) as a proxy, is likely the best predictor of this competition, which typically increases between members of one sex as members of the opposite sex become rarer. Moreover, in populations subject to high predation, males often decrease mating competitive behaviour due to predation risk. We explored the combined effects of ASR and population of origin (low vs. high ambient predation risk) on mating competition in male and female wild-caught Trinidadian guppies. Both male and female aggression rates increased with ASR, but the increase for males was only significant in the low-predation population. In regard to male mating tactics, courtship propensity was unaffected by ASR, while the propensity to sneak increased at male-biased ASRs. Guppies from a high predation population had lower aggression rates than their low predation counterpart, but male courtship and sneaking attempts did not differ between populations. Surprisingly, females were just as aggressive as males when competing for mates. These results highlight the trade-offs between antipredator and agonistic behaviour, which may affect sexual selection pressures in wild populations.

Local predation risk shapes spatial and foraging neophobia patterns in Trinidadian guppies.

The "dangerous niche" hypothesis posits that neophobia functions to reduce the cost of habitat use among animals exposed to unknown risks. For example, more dangerous foraging or higher competition may lead to increased spatial neophobia. Likewise, elevated ambient predation threats have been shown to induce phenotypically plastic neophobic predator avoidance. In both cases, neophobia is argued to reduce the cost of living associated with ecological uncertainty. Here, we test the hypothesis that ambient predation shapes both neophobic predator avoidance and spatial and foraging neophobia in Trinidadian guppies. Guppies were exposed to a novel foraging arena paired with a known cue (conspecific alarm cue), a novel cue (lemon odor), or a stream water control in three streams differing in ambient predation risk. We demonstrate that guppies from a high-predation-risk stream exhibited risk-averse foraging patterns regardless of the chemical stimulus presented (high spatial neophobia) and that those from a low-predation-risk stream were only risk-averse when the foraging arenas were paired with conspecific alarm cue (lower spatial neophobia). Those tested in the intermediate-predation-risk stream were consistently intermediate to the high-risk vs. low-risk populations. Our study suggests that ambient predation risk shapes both neophobic predator avoidance and space-use patterns and that neophobia may function as a "generalized" response to ecological uncertainty.