HPV16 E7 Genetic Conservation Is Critical to Carcinogenesis.

Although most cervical human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) infections become undetectable within 1-2 years, persistent HPV16 causes half of all cervical cancers. We used a novel HPV whole-genome sequencing technique to evaluate an exceptionally large collection of 5,570 HPV16-infected case-control samples to determine whether viral genetic variation influences risk of cervical precancer and cancer. We observed thousands of unique HPV16 genomes; very few women shared the identical HPV16 sequence, which should stimulate a careful re-evaluation of the clinical implications of HPV mutation rates, transmission, clearance, and persistence. In case-control analyses, HPV16 in the controls had significantly more amino acid changing variants throughout the genome. Strikingly, E7 was devoid of variants in precancers/cancers compared to higher levels in the controls; we confirmed this in cancers from around the world. Strict conservation of the 98 amino acids of E7, which disrupts Rb function, is critical for HPV16 carcinogenesis, presenting a highly specific target for etiologic and therapeutic research.

Causal attribution of human papillomavirus genotypes to invasive cervical cancer worldwide: a systematic analysis of the global literature.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the proportion of invasive cervical cancer (ICC) caused by different human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes can inform primary (ie, vaccination) and secondary (ie, screening) prevention efforts that target specific HPV genotypes. However, using the global literature to estimate population attributable fractions (AFs) requires a methodological framework to address HPV genotype-specific causality from aggregated data. We aimed to estimate the proportion of ICC caused by different HPV genotypes at the global, regional, and national level. METHODS: This systematic review identified studies reporting HPV genotype-specific prevalence in ICC or people with normal cervical cytology. We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science up to Feb 29, 2024, using the search terms "cervix" and "HPV", with no language restrictions. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by comparing HPV genotype-specific prevalence between HPV-positive ICC and normal cervical cytology with logistic regression models, adjusting for region, year of paper publication, and HPV primer or test. HPV genotypes with a lower bound to the 95% CI of the OR greater than 1·0 were judged as causal to ICC. Corresponding regional genotype-specific AFs were calculated as regional HPV prevalence in ICC multiplied by (1 - [1 / OR]) and were proportionally adjusted to total 100%. Global AFs were calculated from regional AFs weighted by number of regional ICC cases in 2022 (GLOBOCAN). FINDINGS: The systematic review identified 1174 studies with 111 902 cases of HPV-positive ICC and 2 755 734 of normal cervical cytology. 17 HPV genotypes were considered causal to ICC, with ORs ranging widely from 48·3 (95% CI 45·7-50·9) for HPV16 to 1·4 (1·2-1·7) for HPV51. HPV16 had the highest global AF (61·7%), followed by HPV18 (15·3%), HPV45 (4·8%), HPV33 (3·8%), HPV58 (3·5%), HPV31 (2·8%), and HPV52 (2·8%). Remaining causal genotypes (HPV35, 59, 39, 56, 51, 68, 73, 26, 69, and 82) had a combined global AF of 5·3%. AFs for HPV16 and 18 and HPV16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58 combined were lowest in Africa (71·9% and 92·1%, respectively) and highest in central, western, and southern Asia (83·2% and 95·9%, respectively). HPV35 had a higher AF in Africa (3·6%) than other regions (0·6-1·6%). INTERPRETATION: This study provides a comprehensive global picture of HPV genotype-specific AFs in ICC, before the influence of HPV vaccination. These data can inform HPV genotype-specific vaccination and screening strategies to reduce the burden of ICC. FUNDING: EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme.

Cumulative Detection of Anal High-Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesions Over 2-Year Follow-up in Men Who Have Sex With Men Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in France.

We assessed cumulative detection and determinants of anal high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSILs) in men who have sex with men living with human immunodeficiency virus and who underwent 3 visits over 2 years, with cytology and high-resolution anoscopy, within the ANRS-EP57-APACHES study. The cumulative HSIL detection rate was 33% (134 of 410), of which 48% HSILs were detected at baseline. HSIL detection varied considerably by center (from 13% to 51%). The strongest HSIL determinants were baseline human papillomavirus 16 (adjusted odds ratio, 8.2; 95% confidence interval, 3.6-18.9) and p16/Ki67 (4.6 [2.3-9.1]). Repeated annual cytology and high-resolution anoscopy improved HSIL detection but did not fully compensate for between-center heterogeneity.

Antibodies against high-risk human papillomavirus proteins as markers for noncervical HPV-related cancers in a Black South African population, according to HIV status.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) proteins may elicit antibody responses in the process toward HPV-related malignancy. However, HPV seroepidemiology in noncervical HPV-related cancers remains poorly understood, particularly in populations with a high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Using a glutathione S-transferase-based multiplex serology assay, antibodies against E6, E7 and L1 proteins of HPV16 and HPV18 were measured in sera of 535 cases of noncervical HPV-related cancers (anal (n = 104), vulval (n = 211), vaginal (n = 49), penile (n = 37) and oropharyngeal (n = 134)) and 6651 non-infection-related cancer controls, from the Johannesburg Cancer Study that recruited Black South African with newly diagnosed cancer between 1995 and 2016. Logistic and Poisson regression models were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and prevalence ratios (aPR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) in cases versus controls. HPV16 E6 was more strongly associated with noncervical HPV-related cancers than HPV16 L1 or E7, or HPV18 proteins: anal (females (HPV16 E6 aOR = 11.50;95%CI:6.0-22.2), males (aOR = 10.12;95%CI:4.9-20.8), vulval (aOR = 11.69;95%CI:7.9-17.2), vaginal (aOR = 10.26;95%CI:5.0-21), penile (aOR = 18.95;95%CI:8.9-40), and oropharyngeal (females (aOR = 8.95;95%CI:2.9-27.5), males (aOR = 3.49;95%CI:1.8-7.0)) cancers. HPV16-E6 seropositivity ranged from 24.0% to 35.1% in anal, vulval, vaginal and penile cancer but was significantly lower (11.2%) in oropharyngeal cancer. After adjustment for HIV, prevalence of which increased from 22.2% in 1995-2005 to 54.1% in 2010-2016, HPV16 E6 seropositivity increased by period of diagnosis (aPR for 2010-2016 vs. 1995-2006 = 1.84;95%CI:1.1-3.0). Assuming HPV16 E6 seroprevalence reflects HPV attributable fraction, the proportion of certain noncervical-HPV-related cancers caused by HPV is increasing over time in South Africa. This is expected to be driven by the increasing influence of HIV.

Human papillomavirus and p16INK4a in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

We intended to update human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence and p16INK4a positivity in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomars (SCC), and calculate HPV attributable fraction (AF) for oropharyngeal SCC by geographic region. We searched Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library to identify published studies of HPV prevalence and p16INK4a positivity alone or together in oropharyngeal SCC before December 28, 2021. Studies that reported type-specific HPV DNA prevalence using broad-spectrum PCR-based testing methods were included. We estimated pooled HPV prevalence, type-specific HPV prevalence, and p16INK4a positivity. AF of HPV was calculated by geographic region. One hundred and thirty-four studies including 12 139 cases were included in our analysis. The pooled HPV prevalence estimate for oropharyngeal SCC was 48.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 43.2-53.0). HPV prevalence varied significantly by geographic region, and the highest HPV prevalence in oropharyngeal SCC was noted in North America (72.6%, 95% CI 63.8-80.6). Among HPV positive cases, HPV 16 was the most common type with a prevalence of 40.2% (95% CI 35.7-44.7). The pooled p16INK4a positivity in HPV positive and HPV16 positive oropharyngeal SCC cases was 87.2% (95% CI 81.6-91.2) and 91.7% (84.3-97.2). The highest AFs of HPV and HPV16 were noted in North America at 69.6% (95% CI 53.0-91.5) and 63.0% (48.0-82.7). [Correction added on 31 October 2023, after first online publication: the percentage symbol (%) was missing and has been added to 63.0% (48.0-82.7) in the Abstract and Conclusion.] A significant proportion of oropharyngeal SCC was attributable to HPV. HPV16 accounts for the majority of HPV positive oropharyngeal SCC cases. These findings highlight the importance of HPV vaccination in the prevention of a substantial proportion of oropharyngeal SCC cases.

Cancer risk among people living with Human Immuodeficiency Virus (HIV) in Rwanda from 2007 to 2018.

Assessing the risk of cancer among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in the current era of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is crucial, given their increased susceptibility to many types of cancer and prolonged survival due to ART exposure. Our study aims to compare the association between HIV infection and specific cancer sites in Rwanda. Population-based cancer registry data were used to identify cancer cases in both PLHIV and HIV-negative persons. A probabilistic record linkage approach between the HIV and cancer registries was used to supplement HIV status ascertainment in the cancer registry. Associations between HIV infection and different cancer types were evaluated using unconditional logistic regression models. We performed several sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of our findings and to evaluate the potential impact of different assumptions on our results. From 2007 to 2018, the cancer registry recorded 17,679 cases, of which 7% were diagnosed among PLHIV. We found significant associations between HIV infection and Kaposi's Sarcoma (KS) (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 29.1, 95% CI: 23.2-36.6), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) (1.6, 1.3-2.0), Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) (1.6, 1.1-2.4), cervical (2.3, 2.0-2.7), vulvar (4.0, 2.5-6.5), penile (3.0, 2.0-4.5), and eye cancers (2.2, 1.6-3.0). Men living with HIV had a higher risk of anal cancer (3.1, 1.0-9.5) than men without HIV, but women living with HIV did not have higher risk than women without HIV (1.0, 0.2-4.3). Our study found that in an era of expanded ART coverage in Rwanda, HIV is associated with a broad range of cancers, particularly those linked to viral infections.

High-risk human papillomavirus distribution according to human immunodeficiency virus status among women with cervical cancer in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, 2018 to 2020.

As human papillomavirus (HPV) immunisation and HPV-based cervical cancer (CC) screening programmes expand across sub-Saharan Africa, we investigated the potential impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status on high-risk (HR)-HPV distribution among women with CC in Côte d'Ivoire. From July 2018 to June 2020, paraffin-embedded CC specimens diagnosed in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire were systematically collected and tested for HR-HPV DNA. Type-specific HR-HPV prevalence was compared according to HIV status. Of the 170 CC specimens analysed (median age 52 years, interquartile range: [43.0-60.0]), 43 (25.3%) were from women living with HIV (WLHIV) with a median CD4 count of 526 [373-833] cells/mm3 and 86% were on antiretroviral therapy (ART). The overall HR-HPV prevalence was 89.4% [95% CI: 84.7-94.1]. All were single HR-HPV infections with no differences according to HIV status (P = .8). Among HR-HPV-positive CC specimens, the most prevalent HR-HPV types were HPV16 (57.2%), HPV18 (19.7%), HPV45 (8.6%) and HPV35 (4.6%), with no significant differences according to HIV status. Altogether, infection with HPV16/18 accounted for 71.1% [95% CI: 55.9-86.2] of CC cases in WLHIV vs 78.9% [95% CI: 71.3-86.5] in women without HIV (P = .3). The study confirms the major role of HPV16/18 in CC in Côte d'Ivoire and should support a regional scale-up of HPV16/18 vaccination programmes regardless of HIV status. However, vaccines targeting additional HR-HPV types, including HPV45 and HPV35, could further decrease future CC incidence in Côte d'Ivoire, both for WLHIV and women without HIV.

Performance of visual inspection, partial genotyping, and their combination for the triage of women living with HIV who are screen positive for human papillomavirus: Results from the AIMA-CC ANRS 12375 multicentric screening study.

The WHO recommends the use of human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for primary cervical cancer (CC) screening because of its high sensitivity. However, triage is desirable to correctly identify HPV+ women who have high-grade lesions (CIN2+) and require treatment. The ANRS-12375 study was conducted in Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso and Cambodia to assess the performance, feasibility and benefits of different triage options for detecting CIN2+ lesions: partial (HPV16 and HPV16/18/45) and extended genotyping, visual inspection (VIA) alone and VIA combined with partial genotyping. VIA was performed by gynecologists. The sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic likelihood ratio (DLR) of each triage option for detecting CIN2+ lesions with histology as a reference standard were calculated. Of the 2253 women living with HIV (WLHIV) included, 932 (41%) were HPV+. A CIN2+ lesion was identified in 105 (13%) of the 777 participants with histopathology results. The sensitivity of VIA as a triage test for CIN2+ patients was 89%, while that for extended genotyping was 89%, that for HPV16/18/45 partial genotyping was 51%, and that for HPV16 partial genotyping was 36%. The specificities for these tests were 45%, 29%, 72%., and 85%, respectively. Combining VIA and/or partial genotyping positivity slightly increased the sensitivity (94%) at the cost of lower specificity (28%). There was significant intersite heterogeneity (p = .04). Among the three triage tests with a sensitivity ≥85%, the VIA had the highest specificity and positive likelihood ratio (p < .001). VIA and extended genotyping, whether independent or combined, are good triage options with high sensitivity for identifying WLHIV needing treatment for CIN2+.

International Anal Neoplasia Society's consensus guidelines for anal cancer screening.

The International Anal Neoplasia Society (IANS) developed consensus guidelines to inform anal cancer screening use among various high-risk groups. Anal cancer incidence estimates by age among risk groups provided the basis to identify risk thresholds to recommend screening. Guided by risk thresholds, screening initiation at age 35 years was recommended for men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TW) with HIV. For other people with HIV and MSM and TW not with HIV, screening initiation at age 45 years was recommended. For solid organ transplant recipients, screening initiation beginning from 10 years post-transplant was recommended. For persons with a history of vulvar precancer or cancer, screening initiation was recommended starting within 1 year of diagnosis of vulvar precancer or cancer. Persons aged ≥45 years with a history of cervical/vaginal HSIL or cancer, perianal warts, persistent (>1 year) cervical HPV16, or autoimmune conditions could be considered for screening with shared decision-making, provided there is adequate capacity to perform diagnostic procedures (high-resolution anoscopy [HRA]). Anal cytology, high-risk (hr) human papillomavirus (HPV) testing (including genotyping for HPV16), and hrHPV-cytology co-testing are different strategies currently used for anal cancer screening that show acceptable performance. Thresholds for referral for HRA or follow-up screening tests are delineated. These recommendations from IANS provide the basis to inform management of abnormal screening results, considering currently available screening tools. These guidelines provide a pivotal foundation to help generate consensus among providers and inform the introduction and implementation of risk-targeted screening for anal cancer prevention.

State of the science and future directions for research on HIV and cancer: Summary of a joint workshop sponsored by IARC and NCI.

An estimated 38 million people live with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) worldwide and are at excess risk for multiple cancer types. Elevated cancer risks in people living with HIV (PLWH) are driven primarily by increased exposure to carcinogens, most notably oncogenic viruses acquired through shared transmission routes, plus acceleration of viral carcinogenesis by HIV-related immunosuppression. In the era of widespread antiretroviral therapy (ART), life expectancy of PLWH has increased, with cancer now a leading cause of co-morbidity and death. Furthermore, the types of cancers occurring among PLWH are shifting over time and vary in their relative burden in different parts of the world. In this context, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) convened a meeting in September 2022 of multinational and multidisciplinary experts to focus on cancer in PLWH. This report summarizes the proceedings, including a review of the state of the science of cancer descriptive epidemiology, etiology, molecular tumor characterization, primary and secondary prevention, treatment disparities and survival in PLWH around the world. A consensus of key research priorities and recommendations in these domains is also presented.

Criteria for second generation comparator tests in validation of novel HPV DNA tests for use in cervical cancer screening.

While HC2 and GP5+/6+ PCR-EIA were pivotal in test validation of new HPV assays, they represent the first generation of comparator tests based upon technologies that are not in widespread use anymore. In the current guideline, criteria for second-generation comparator tests are presented that include more detailed resolution of HPV genotypes. Second-generation comparator tests should preferentially target only the 12 genotypes classified as carcinogenic (IARC-group I), and show consistent non-inferior sensitivity for CIN2+ and CIN3+ and specificity for ≤CIN1 compared to one of the first-generations comparators, in at least three validation studies using benchmarks of 0.95 for relative sensitivity and 0.98 for relative specificity. Validation should take into account used storage media and other sample handling procedures. Meta-analyses were conducted to identify the assays that fulfill these stringent criteria. Four tests fulfilled the new criteria: (1) RealTime High-Risk HPV Test (Abbott), (2) Cobas-4800 HPV test (Roche Molecular System), (3) Onclarity HPV Assay (BD Diagnostics), and (4) Anyplex II HPV HR Detection (Seegene), each evaluated in three to six studies. Whereas the four assays target 14 carcinogenic genotypes, the first two identify separately HPV16 and 18, the third assay identifies five types separately and the fourth identifies all the types separately.

Genome-wide association meta-analysis identifies pleiotropic risk loci for aerodigestive squamous cell cancers.

Squamous cell carcinomas (SqCC) of the aerodigestive tract have similar etiological risk factors. Although genetic risk variants for individual cancers have been identified, an agnostic, genome-wide search for shared genetic susceptibility has not been performed. To identify novel and pleotropic SqCC risk variants, we performed a meta-analysis of GWAS data on lung SqCC (LuSqCC), oro/pharyngeal SqCC (OSqCC), laryngeal SqCC (LaSqCC) and esophageal SqCC (ESqCC) cancers, totaling 13,887 cases and 61,961 controls of European ancestry. We identified one novel genome-wide significant (Pmeta<5x10-8) aerodigestive SqCC susceptibility loci in the 2q33.1 region (rs56321285, TMEM273). Additionally, three previously unknown loci reached suggestive significance (Pmeta<5x10-7): 1q32.1 (rs12133735, near MDM4), 5q31.2 (rs13181561, TMEM173) and 19p13.11 (rs61494113, ABHD8). Multiple previously identified loci for aerodigestive SqCC also showed evidence of pleiotropy in at least another SqCC site, these include: 4q23 (ADH1B), 6p21.33 (STK19), 6p21.32 (HLA-DQB1), 9p21.33 (CDKN2B-AS1) and 13q13.1(BRCA2). Gene-based association and gene set enrichment identified a set of 48 SqCC-related genes rel to DNA damage and epigenetic regulation pathways. Our study highlights the importance of cross-cancer analyses to identify pleiotropic risk loci of histology-related cancers arising at distinct anatomical sites.

Impact of Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Against Anal Human Papillomavirus Infection, Anal Intraepithelial Neoplasia, and Recurrence of Anal Intraepithelial Neoplasia: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: We sought to summarize human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine efficacy/effectiveness (VE) against anal HPV infection and anal intraepithelial neoplasia (AIN). METHODS: We performed literature review and meta-analysis to estimate VE, stratified by age and analytic population (per-protocol efficacy [PPE] or intention-to-treat [ITT] population in clinical trials, or all participants in real-world studies). RESULTS: We identified 6 clinical trials and 8 real-world studies. In participants vaccinated at age ≤26 years (mainly human immunodeficiency virus [HIV]-negative individuals), significant VE against incident/prevalent anal HPV infection was reported in clinical trials, with a higher estimate in PPE (2 studies with 2390 participants; VE, 84% [95% confidence interval (CI), 77%-90%]; I2 = 0%) than ITT (2 studies with 4885 participants; 55%, 39%-67%; I2 = 46%) populations or in real-world studies (4 studies with 2375 participants; 77%, 40%-91%; I2 = 81%). HPV vaccination at age ≤26 years was associated with significant VE in preventing persistent anal HPV infection and AIN. No significant VE against anal HPV infection or AIN was found in persons vaccinated at age >26 years (mainly people living with HIV). CONCLUSIONS: There is strong evidence for high VE against anal HPV infection and AIN in HIV-negative individuals vaccinated at age ≤26 years. However, the lower impact in ITT than in PPE populations and the lack of significant effect in people living with HIV aged >26 years indicates that vaccines have the higher impact in populations with less sexual exposure to anal HPV.

Cumulative detection of anal high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions over two-year follow-up in men who have sex with men living with HIV in France.

We assessed cumulative detection and determinants of anal high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) in men who have sex with men living with HIV who underwent three visits over two years, with cytology and high-resolution anoscopy (HRA), within the ANRS-EP57-APACHES study. Cumulative HSIL detection was 33% (134/410), of which 48% were detected at baseline. HSIL detection varied considerably by center (13-51%). Strongest HSIL determinants were baseline HPV16 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 8.2; 95% confidence interval [95%CI] 3.6-18.9), and p16/Ki67 (aOR 4.6; 95%CI 2.3-9.1). Repeat annual cytology and HRA improved HSIL detection but did not fully compensate between-center heterogeneity.

Age-Specific Prevalence of Anal and Cervical Human Papillomavirus Infection and High-Grade Lesions in 11 177 Women by Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status: A Collaborative Pooled Analysis of 26 Studies.

BACKGROUND: Age-specific data on anal, and corresponding cervical, human papillomavirus (HPV) infection are needed to inform female anal cancer prevention. METHODS: We centrally reanalyzed individual-level data from 26 studies reporting HPV prevalence in paired anal and cervical samples by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status and age. For women with HIV (WWH) with anal high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions or worse (HSIL+), we also investigated concurrent cervical cytopathology. RESULTS: In HIV-negative women, HPV16 prevalence decreased significantly with age, both at anus (4.3% at 15-24 years to 1.0% at ≥55 years; ptrend = 0.0026) and cervix (7.4% to 1.7%; ptrend < 0.0001). In WWH, HPV16 prevalence decreased with age at cervix (18.3% to 7.2%; ptrend = 0.0035) but not anus (11.5% to 13.9%; ptrend = 0.5412). Given anal HPV16 positivity, concurrent cervical HPV16 positivity also decreased with age, both in HIV-negative women (ptrend = 0.0005) and WWH (ptrend = 0.0166). Among 48 WWH with HPV16-positive anal HSIL+, 27 (56%) were cervical high-risk HPV-positive, including 8 with cervical HPV16, and 5 were cervical HSIL+. CONCLUSIONS: Age-specific shifts in HPV16 prevalence from cervix to anus suggest that HPV infections in the anus persist longer, or occur later in life, than in the cervix, particularly in WWH. This is an important consideration when assessing the utility of cervical screening results to stratify anal cancer risk.

Changing prevalence of chronic hepatitis B virus infection in China between 1973 and 2021: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of 3740 studies and 231 million people.

OBJECTIVE: China concentrates a large part of the global burden of HBV infection, playing a pivotal role in achieving the WHO 2030 global hepatitis elimination target. METHODS: We searched for studies reporting HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) seroprevalence in five databases until January 2023. Eligible data were pooled using a generalised linear mixed model with random effects to obtain summary HBsAg seroprevalence. Linear regression was used to estimate annual percentage change (APC) and HBsAg prevalence in 2021. RESULTS: 3740 studies, including 231 million subjects, were meta-analysed. HBsAg seroprevalence for the general population decreased from 9.6% (95% CI 8.4 to 10.9%) in 1973-1984 to 3.0% (95% CI 2.1 to 3.9%) in 2021 (APC=-3.77; p<0.0001). Decreases were more pronounced in children <5 years (APC=-7.72; p<0.0001) and 5-18 years (-7.58; p<0.0001), than in people aged 19-59 years (-2.44; p<0.0001), whereas HBsAg seroprevalence increased in persons ≥60 years (2.84; p=0.0007). Significant decreases were observed in all six major Chinese regions, in both men (APC=-3.90; p<0.0001) and women (-1.82; p<0.0001) and in high-risk populations. An estimated 43.3 million (95% uncertainty interval 30.7-55.9) persons remained infected with HBV in China in 2021 (3.0%), with notable heterogeneity by region (<1.5% in North China to>6% in Taiwan and Hong Kong) and age (0.3%, 1.0%, 4.7% and 5.6% for <5 years, 5-18 years, 19-59 years and ≥60 years, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: China has experienced remarkable decreases in HBV infection over the last four decades, but variations in HBsAg prevalence persist in subpopulations. Ongoing prevention of HBV transmission is needed to meet HBV elimination targets by 2030. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: PROSPERO (CRD42021284217).

Human Papillomavirus-Associated Anal Cancer Incidence and Burden Among US Men, According to Sexual Orientation, Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status, and Age.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) without HIV are known to be at elevated relative risk for Human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated anal cancer in comparison to men who have sex with women (MSW), but are poorly characterized in terms of anal cancer incidence due to absence of reporting of sexual behavior/identity at a population-level. METHODS: By combining age-specific statistics from multiple data sources (anal cancer incidence among all males; anal cancer incidence among MSM and MSW with HIV; population size of men with HIV by sexual orientation), we developed a mathematical model to estimate anal cancer incidence, annual number of cases, and proportion by (a) sexual orientation (MSM versus MSW), (b) HIV status, and (c) age (<30, 30-44, 45-59, and ≥60 years). RESULTS: Anal cancer incidence (per 100 000) among MSM without HIV was 1.4 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 0.6 to 2.3), 17.6 (95% UI = 13.8-23.5), and 33.9 (95% UI = 28.3-42.3), at ages 30-44, 45-59 and ≥60 years, respectively. 19.1% of all male anal cancer occurred in MSM without HIV, increasing from 4% of anal cancer diagnosed at 30-44 years to 24% at ≥60 years; 54.3% occurred in MSW without HIV (increasing from 13% at age 30-44 to 67% at >60 years), and the remaining 26.6% in men (MSM and MSW combined) with HIV (decreasing from 83% at age 30-44 to 9% at >60 years). CONCLUSIONS: These findings should inform anal cancer prevention recommendations in male risk groups, including, for the first time, for the important group of MSM without HIV.

Incidence and Clearance of Anal Human Papillomavirus Infection in 16 164 Individuals, According to Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status, Sex, and Male Sexuality: An International Pooled Analysis of 34 Longitudinal Studies.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the natural history of anal high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) infection is key for designing anal cancer prevention programs but has not been systematically characterized. METHODS: We reanalyzed data from 34 studies including 16 164 individuals in 6 risk groups defined by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, sex, and male sexuality: men who have sex with men (MSM) and people with HIV (MSMWH), HIV-negative MSM, women with HIV (WWH), HIV-negative women, men who have sex with women (MSW) with HIV (MSWWH), and HIV-negative MSW. We used Markov models to estimate incidence and clearance of 13 hrHPV types and their determinants. RESULTS: Human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 had the highest incidence-clearance ratio of the hrHPV types. MSMWH had the highest hrHPV incidence (eg, 15.5% newly HPV-16 infected within 2 years), followed by HIV-negative MSM (7.5%), WWH (6.6%), HIV-negative women (2.9%), MSWWH (1.7%), and HIV-negative MSW (0.7%). Determinants of HPV-16 incidence included HIV status and number of sexual partners for MSM, women, and MSW, and anal sex behavior for MSM only. HPV-16 clearance was lower for people with HIV (PWH) and lower for prevalent than incident infection. Among MSM, increasing age was associated with lower clearance of prevalent, but not incident, HPV-16 infection. CONCLUSIONS: This robust and unifying analysis of anal hrHPV natural history is essential to designing and predicting the impact of HPV vaccination and HPV-based screening programs on anal cancer prevention, particularly in MSM and PWH. Importantly, it demonstrates the higher carcinogenic potential of longstanding anal prevalent hrHPV infection than more recent incident infection.

Global burden of HPV-attributable squamous cell carcinoma of the anus in 2020, according to sex and HIV status: A worldwide analysis.

Squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA) is caused by HPV, and is elevated in persons living with HIV (PLWHIV). We aimed to estimate sex- and HIV-stratified SCCA burden at a country, regional and global level. Using anal cancer incidence estimates from 185 countries available through GLOBOCAN 2020, and region/country-specific proportions of SCCA vs non-SCCA from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) Volume XI database, we estimated country- and sex-specific SCCA incidence. Proportions of SCCA diagnosed in PLWHIV, and attributable to HIV, were calculated using estimates of HIV prevalence (UNAIDS 2019) and relative risk applied to SCCA incidence. Of 30 416 SCCA estimated globally in 2020, two-thirds occurred in women (19 792) and one-third among men (10 624). Fifty-three percent of male SCCA and 65% of female SCCA occurred in countries with a very high Human Development Index (HDI). Twenty-one percent of the global male SCCA burden occurred in PLWHIV (n = 2203), largely concentrated in North America, Europe and Africa. While, only 3% of global female SCCA burden (n = 561) occurred in PLWHIV, mainly in Africa. The global age-standardized incidence rate of HIV-negative SCCA was higher in women (0.55 cases per 100 000) than men (0.28), whereas HIV-positive SCCA was higher in men (0.07) than women (0.02). HIV prevalence reached >40% in 22 countries for male SCCA and in 10 countries for female SCCA, mostly in Africa. Understanding global SCCA burden by HIV status can inform SCCA prevention programs (through HPV vaccination, screening and HIV control) and help raise awareness to combat the disease.

Estimating the Global Burden of Epstein-Barr Virus-Associated Gastric Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Evidence suggests that a fraction of new gastric cancer cases may be etiologically associated with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), a known carcinogenic agent. We aimed to systematically explore the proportion of EBV-positive gastric cancer. METHODS: We did a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42020164473) from January 1990 to August 2021. For each country and geographical region with available data, pooled prevalence and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of EBV in gastric tumors were calculated for 3 subtypes of gastric adenocarcinoma (conventional adenocarcinoma, lymphoepithelioma-like gastric carcinoma, and remnant/stump carcinoma). For conventional adenocarcinoma, prevalence ratios (PRs) were presented for sex, Lauren's classification, gastric cancer stage, and anatomical location of the stomach. RESULTS: In 220 eligible studies including over 68,000 cases of conventional gastric adenocarcinoma, EBV prevalence in tumor cells was 7.5% (95% CI, 6.9%-8.1%) and was higher in men compared with women (PR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.9-2.4), in diffuse type compared with intestinal type (PR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5), and in the proximal region compared with the distal region (PR, 2.5; 95% CI, 2.0-3.1). There was no difference in EBV prevalence by gastric cancer stage. EBV prevalence was 75.9% (95% CI, 62.8%-85.5%) among lymphoepithelioma-like gastric carcinoma and 26.3% (95% CI, 22.2%-32.0%) among remnant or stump carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: Assuming a causal association between EBV and gastric cancer, our findings, when applied to the GLOBOCAN 2020 gastric cancer incidence, suggest that primary prevention such as the development of an effective EBV vaccine might prevent 81,000 EBV-associated gastric cancer cases worldwide annually.