Outcomes of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Omicron-driven fourth wave compared with previous waves in the Western Cape Province, South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: The objective was to compare COVID-19 outcomes in the Omicron-driven fourth wave with prior waves in the Western Cape, assess the contribution of undiagnosed prior infection to differences in outcomes in a context of high seroprevalence due to prior infection and determine whether protection against severe disease conferred by prior infection and/or vaccination was maintained. METHODS: In this cohort study, we included public sector patients aged ≥20 years with a laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis between 14 November and 11 December 2021 (wave four) and equivalent prior wave periods. We compared the risk between waves of the following outcomes using Cox regression: death, severe hospitalisation or death and any hospitalisation or death (all ≤14 days after diagnosis) adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, geography, vaccination and prior infection. RESULTS: We included 5144 patients from wave four and 11,609 from prior waves. The risk of all outcomes was lower in wave four compared to the Delta-driven wave three (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] for death 0.27 [0.19; 0.38]. Risk reduction was lower when adjusting for vaccination and prior diagnosed infection (aHR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.29; 0.59) and reduced further when accounting for unascertained prior infections (aHR: 0.72). Vaccine protection was maintained in wave four (aHR for outcome of death: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.10; 0.58). CONCLUSIONS: In the Omicron-driven wave, severe COVID-19 outcomes were reduced mostly due to protection conferred by prior infection and/or vaccination, but intrinsically reduced virulence may account for a modest reduction in risk of severe hospitalisation or death compared to the Delta-driven wave.

Towards equity: a retrospective analysis of public sector radiological resources and utilization patterns in the metropolitan and rural areas of the Western Cape Province of South Africa in 2017.

BACKGROUND: The reduction of inequality is a key United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goal (WHO, Human Resources for Health: foundation for Universal Health Coverage and the post-2015 development agenda, 2014; Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development .:. Sustainable Development Knowledge Platform, 2020). Despite marked disparities in radiological services globally, particularly between metropolitan and rural populations in low- and middle-income countries, there has been little work on imaging resources and utilization patterns in any setting (Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development .:. Sustainable Development Knowledge Platform, 2020; WHO, Local Production and Technology Transfer to Increase Access to Medical Devices, 2019; European Society of Radiology (ESR), Insights Imaging 6:573-7, 2015; Maboreke et al., An audit of licensed Zimbabwean radiology equipment resources as a measure of healthcare access and equity, 2020; Kabongo et al., Pan Afr Med J 22, 2015; Skedgel et al., Med Decis Making 35:94-105, 2015; Mollura et al., J Am Coll Radiol 913-9, 2014; Culp et al., J Am Coll Radiol 12:475-80, 2015; Mbewe et al., An audit of licenced Zambian diagnostic imaging equipment and personnel, 2020). To achieve equity, a better understanding of the integral components of the so called "imaging enterprise" is important. The aim was to analyse a provincial radiological service in a middle-income country. METHODS: An institutional review board-approved retrospective audit of radiological data for the public healthcare sector of the Western Cape Province of South Africa for 2017, utilizing provincial databases. We conducted population-based analyses of imaging equipment, personnel, and service utilization data for the whole province, the metropolitan and the rural areas. RESULTS: Metropolitan population density exceeds rural by a factor of ninety (1682 vs 19 people/km2). Rural imaging facilities by population are double the metropolitan (20 vs 11/106 people). Metropolitan imaging personnel by population (112 vs 53/106 people) and equipment unit (1.7 vs 0.7/unit) are more than double the rural. Overall population-based utilization of imaging services was 30% higher in the metropole (289 vs 214 studies/103 people), with mammography (24 vs 5 studies/103 woman > 40 years) and CT (21 vs 6/103 people) recording the highest, and plain radiography (203 vs 171/103 people) the lowest differences. CONCLUSION: Despite attempts to achieve imaging equity through the provision of increased facilities/million people in the rural areas, differential utilization patterns persist. The achievement of equity must be seen as a process involving incremental improvements and iterative analyses that define progress towards the goal.

COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake and Effectiveness by Time since Vaccination in the Western Cape Province, South Africa: An Observational Cohort Study during 2020-2022.

There are few data on the real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines and boosting in Africa, which experienced widespread SARS-CoV-2 infection before vaccine availability. We assessed the association between vaccination and severe COVID-19 in the Western Cape, South Africa, in an observational cohort study of >2 million adults during 2020-2022. We described SARS-CoV-2 testing, COVID-19 outcomes, and vaccine uptake over time. We used multivariable cox models to estimate the association of BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2.S vaccination with COVID-19-related hospitalization and death, adjusting for demographic characteristics, underlying health conditions, socioeconomic status proxies, and healthcare utilization. We found that by the end of 2022, 41% of surviving adults had completed vaccination and 8% had received a booster dose. Recent vaccination was associated with notable reductions in severe COVID-19 during periods dominated by Delta, and Omicron BA.1/2 and BA.4/5 (sub)lineages. During the latest Omicron BA.4/5 wave, within 3 months of vaccination or boosting, BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2.S were each 84% effective against death (95% CIs: 57-94 and 49-95, respectively). However, distinct reductions of effectiveness occurred at longer times post completing or boosting vaccination. Results highlight the importance of continued emphasis on COVID-19 vaccination and boosting for those at high risk of severe COVID-19, even in settings with widespread infection-induced immunity.

COVID-19 vaccine uptake and effectiveness by time since vaccination in the Western Cape province, South Africa: An observational cohort study during 2020-2022.

Background: There are few data on the real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines and boosting in Africa, which experienced high levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a mostly vaccine-naïve population, and has limited vaccine coverage and competing health service priorities. We assessed the association between vaccination and severe COVID-19 in the Western Cape, South Africa. Methods: We performed an observational cohort study of >2 million adults during 2020-2022. We described SARS-CoV-2 testing, COVID-19 outcomes, and vaccine uptake over time. We used multivariable cox models to estimate the association of BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2.S vaccination with COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death, adjusting for demographic characteristics, underlying health conditions, socioeconomic status proxies and healthcare utilisation. Results: By end 2022, only 41% of surviving adults had completed vaccination and 8% a booster dose, despite several waves of severe COVID-19. Recent vaccination was associated with notable reductions in severe COVID-19 during distinct analysis periods dominated by Delta, Omicron BA.1/2 and BA.4/5 (sub)lineages: within 6 months of completing vaccination or boosting, vaccine effectiveness was 46-92% for death (range across periods), 45-92% for admission with severe disease or death, and 25-90% for any admission or death. During the Omicron BA.4/5 wave, within 3 months of vaccination or boosting, BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2.S were each 84% effective against death (95% CIs: 57-94 and 49-95, respectively). However, there were distinct reductions of VE at larger times post completing or boosting vaccination. Conclusions: Continued emphasis on regular COVID-19 vaccination including boosting is important for those at high risk of severe COVID-19 even in settings with widespread infection-induced immunity.

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Utilization of Public Sector Radiological Services in the Western Cape Province of South Africa.

Background Coronavirus (COVID-19) was officially declared a pandemic in March 2020 and has had a major impact on global healthcare services, including radiology. However, little is known about the full impact of COVID-19 on the utilization of diagnostic imaging in Africa's public healthcare sector. Objectives The objective of this study was to compare public sector diagnostic imaging utilization by modality for the whole Western Cape Province (WCP) of South Africa (SA), as well as its metropolitan and rural areas, in 2019 and 2020 in terms of the absolute number of investigations and investigations per 1000 people. Method We performed a retrospective analysis of Western Cape Government Department of Health and Wellness and Stats SA District Council 2021 Mid-Year Population Estimates data. All diagnostic imaging investigations performed in 2019 and 2020 were collated and stratified by imaging modality, geographic region (metropolitan/rural), and calendar year. Data are presented as the total number of investigations and investigations per 1000 people. We calculated mammography utilization for women aged 40-70 years and compared data for 2019 and 2020. Results Between 2019 and 2020, the provincial population increased by 1.9%, while total imaging investigations and investigations per 1000 people decreased by 19% (1,384,941 vs. 1,123,508, -261,433) and 20% (262/103 vs. 208/103), respectively. Total numerical decline was highest in plain radiographs (1,005,545 vs. 800,641, -204,904), accounting for more than three-quarters (78%) of the total reduction. Percentage decline was most pronounced for mammography, as utilization was almost halved (15.7/103 vs. 8.9/103, -43%), whereas computed tomography was the least impacted (17.9/103 vs. 16.7/103, -12%) with the remaining modalities decreasing between approximately one-quarter and one-fifth (magnetic resonance imaging = 26%, fluoroscopy = 25%, general radiographs = 23%, ultrasound = 16%, chest radiographs = 18%). Proportional metropolitan (-18.7%) and rural decreases (-19.3%) were similar. Conclusion COVID-19 had a substantial impact on WCP imaging services, decreasing overall radiological investigations by almost one-fifth. The greatest impact was on elective investigations, particularly mammography. Although the proportional impact was similar for the metropolitan and rural areas, COVID-19 nonetheless exacerbated existing discrepancies in imaging utilization between the geographical regions. The medium- and long-term clinical impacts of decreased imaging are still to be defined.

Outcomes of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during resurgence driven by Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 compared with previous waves in the Western Cape Province, South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to compare the clinical severity of Omicron BA.4/BA.5 infection with BA.1 and earlier variant infections among laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in the Western Cape, South Africa, using timing of infection to infer the lineage/variant causing infection. METHODS: We included public sector patients aged ≥20 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 between May 01-May 21, 2022 (BA.4/BA.5 wave) and equivalent previous wave periods. We compared the risk between waves of (i) death and (ii) severe hospitalization/death (all within 21 days of diagnosis) using Cox regression adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, admission pressure, vaccination, and previous infection. RESULTS: Among 3793 patients from the BA.4/BA.5 wave and 190,836 patients from previous waves, the risk of severe hospitalization/death was similar in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 waves (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93; 1.34). Both Omicron waves had a lower risk of severe outcomes than previous waves. Previous infection (aHR 0.29, 95% CI 0.24; 0.36) and vaccination (aHR 0.17; 95% CI 0.07; 0.40 for at least three doses vs no vaccine) were protective. CONCLUSION: Disease severity was similar among diagnosed COVID-19 cases in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 periods in the context of growing immunity against SARS-CoV-2 due to previous infection and vaccination, both of which were strongly protective.

A 6-year audit of public-sector MR utilisation in the Western Cape province of South Africa.

Background: Disparities in MR access between different countries and healthcare systems are well documented. Determinants of unequal access within the same healthcare system and geographical region are poorly understood. Objective: An analysis of public sector MR utilisation in South Africa's Western Cape province (WCP). Methods: A retrospective study of WCP MR and population data for 2013 and 2018. MR units/106 people, studies, and studies/103 people were calculated for each year, for the whole province and the 'western' and 'eastern' referral pathways, stratified by age (0-14 years, > 14 years). Results: Between 2013 and 2018, the WCP population increased 8% (4.63 vs 5.08 × 106 people) while MR resources were unchanged ('western' = 2 units; 'eastern' = 1), equating to decreasing access (units/106 people) for the province (0.65 vs 0.59; -9.2%), the 'western' (0.97 vs 0.9; -7.2%) and 'eastern' (0.39 vs 0.35; -10.3%) pathways. In 2013, 40% (4005/10 090) of studies were in the 'eastern' pathway serving 55% (2 066 079/4 629 051) of the population. Between 2013 and 2018 'eastern' population growth (n = 286 781) exceeded 'western' (n = 168 469) by 70% (n = 118 312). By 2018, 38% (7939/12 848) of studies were performed in the 'eastern' pathway, then serving 56% (2 849 753/5 084 301) of the population. Among 0-14-year-olds, 'western' utilisation (studies/103 people) exceeded 'eastern' by a factor of approximately 2.4 throughout. In patients > 14 years, the utilisation differential increased from 1.78 to 1.98 in the review period. Conclusion: Ensuring equitable services on the same healthcare platform requires ongoing surveillance of resource and population distribution. MR access can serve as a proxy for equity in highly specialised services.

Outcomes of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during resurgence driven by Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 compared with previous waves in the Western Cape Province, South Africa.

Objective: We aimed to compare clinical severity of Omicron BA.4/BA.5 infection with BA.1 and earlier variant infections among laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in the Western Cape, South Africa, using timing of infection to infer the lineage/variant causing infection. Methods: We included public sector patients aged ≥20 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 between 1-21 May 2022 (BA.4/BA.5 wave) and equivalent prior wave periods. We compared the risk between waves of (i) death and (ii) severe hospitalization/death (all within 21 days of diagnosis) using Cox regression adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, admission pressure, vaccination and prior infection. Results: Among 3,793 patients from the BA.4/BA.5 wave and 190,836 patients from previous waves the risk of severe hospitalization/death was similar in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 waves (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93; 1.34). Both Omicron waves had lower risk of severe outcomes than previous waves. Prior infection (aHR 0.29, 95% CI 0.24; 0.36) and vaccination (aHR 0.17; 95% CI 0.07; 0.40 for boosted vs. no vaccine) were protective. Conclusion: Disease severity was similar amongst diagnosed COVID-19 cases in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 periods in the context of growing immunity against SARS-CoV-2 due to prior infection and vaccination, both of which were strongly protective.

Outcomes of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Omicron-driven fourth wave compared with previous waves in the Western Cape Province, South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to compare COVID-19 outcomes in the Omicron-driven fourth wave with prior waves in the Western Cape, the contribution of undiagnosed prior infection to differences in outcomes in a context of high seroprevalence due to prior infection, and whether protection against severe disease conferred by prior infection and/or vaccination was maintained. METHODS: In this cohort study, we included public sector patients aged ≥20 years with a laboratory confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis between 14 November-11 December 2021 (wave four) and equivalent prior wave periods. We compared the risk between waves of the following outcomes using Cox regression: death, severe hospitalization or death and any hospitalization or death (all ≤14 days after diagnosis) adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, geography, vaccination and prior infection. RESULTS: We included 5,144 patients from wave four and 11,609 from prior waves. Risk of all outcomes was lower in wave four compared to the Delta-driven wave three (adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] for death 0.27 [0.19; 0.38]. Risk reduction was lower when adjusting for vaccination and prior diagnosed infection (aHR:0.41, 95% CI: 0.29; 0.59) and reduced further when accounting for unascertained prior infections (aHR: 0.72). Vaccine protection was maintained in wave four (aHR for outcome of death: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.10; 0.58). CONCLUSIONS: In the Omicron-driven wave, severe COVID-19 outcomes were reduced mostly due to protection conferred by prior infection and/or vaccination, but intrinsically reduced virulence may account for an approximately 25% reduced risk of severe hospitalization or death compared to Delta.

Trends in public sector radiological usage in the Western Cape Province, South Africa: 2009-2019.

BACKGROUND: Although global use of medical imaging has increased significantly, little is known about utilisation trends in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). OBJECTIVES: To evaluate changes over a decade in public sector diagnostic imaging utilisation at provincial level in a middle-income country. METHOD: A retrospective analysis of medical imaging utilisation in the Western Cape Province of South Africa in 2009 and 2019. Use of conventional radiography, ultrasonography (US), fluoroscopy, CT, MRI, digital subtraction angiography (DSA) and whole-body digital radiography was assessed by total studies and studies/103 people, for the whole province, the rural and metropolitan areas. Mammography utilisation was calculated for every 103 females aged 40-70 years. RESULTS: The provincial population and total imaging investigations increased by 25% and 32%, respectively, whilst studies/103 people increased by 5.5% (256 vs 270/103), with marked variation by modality. Provincial US, CT and MRI utilisation/103 people increased by 111% (20 vs 43/103), 78% (10 vs 18/103) and 32% (1.9 vs 2.5/103) respectively, whilst use of fluoroscopy (3.6 vs 3.7/103) and mammography (14.2 vs 15.9/103 women aged 40-70 years) was steady and plain radiography decreased by 20% (216 vs 196/103). For CT, mammography and fluoroscopy, percentage utilisation increases/103 people were higher in the rural than metropolitan areas. CONCLUSION: Population growth is the main driver of overall imaging utilisation in our setting. The relatively constant imaging workload per 1000 people, albeit with increasing ultrasound, CT and MR utilisation, and decreasing use of plain radiography, reflects improved provincial imaging infrastructure, and appropriate use of available resources.

The governance of local health systems in the era of Sustainable Development Goals: reflections on collaborative action to address complex health needs in four country contexts.

This analysis reflects on experiences and lessons from four country settings-Zambia, India, Sweden and South Africa-on building collaborations in local health systems in order to respond to complex health needs. These collaborations ranged in scope and formality, from coordinating action in the community health system (Zambia), to a partnership between governmental, non-governmental and academic actors (India), to joint planning and delivery across political and sectoral boundaries (Sweden and South Africa). The four cases are presented and analysed using a common framework of collaborative governance, focusing on the dynamics of the collaboration itself, with respect to principled engagement, shared motivation and joint capacity. The four cases, despite their differences, illustrate the considerable challenges and the specific dynamics involved in developing collaborative action in local health systems. These include the coconstruction of solutions (and in some instances the problem itself) through engagement, the importance of trust, both interpersonal and institutional, as a condition for collaborative arrangements, and the role of openly accessible information in building shared understanding. Ultimately, collaborative action takes time and difficulty needs to be anticipated. If discovery, joint learning and developing shared perspectives are presented as goals in themselves, this may offset internal and external expectations that collaborations deliver results in the short term.

Antiretroviral therapy and early mortality in South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To describe province-wide outcomes and temporal trends of the Western Cape Province antiretroviral treatment (ART) programme 5 years since inception, and to demonstrate the utility of the WHO monitoring system for ART. METHODS: The treatment programme started in 2001 through innovator sites. Rapid scaling-up of ART provision began early in 2004, located predominantly in primary-care facilities. Data on patients starting ART were prospectively captured into facility-based registers, from which monthly cross-sectional activity and quarterly cohort reports were aggregated. Retention in care, mortality, loss to follow-up and laboratory outcomes were calculated at 6-monthly durations on ART. FINDINGS: By the end of March 2006, 16 234 patients were in care. The cohort analysis included 12 587 adults and 1709 children. Women accounted for 70% of adults enrolled. After 4 and 3 years on ART respectively, 72.0% of adults (95% confidence interval, CI: 68.0-75.6) and 81.5% (95% CI: 75.7-86.1) of children remained in care. The percentage of adults starting ART with CD4 counts less than 50 cells/microl fell from 51.3% in 2001 to 21.5% in 2005, while mortality at 6 months fell from 12.7% to 6.6%, offset in part by an increase in loss to follow-up (reaching 4.7% at 6 months in 2005). Over 85% of adults tested had viral loads below 400 copies/ml at 6-monthly durations until 4 years on ART. CONCLUSION: The location of care in primary-care sites in this programme was associated with good retention in care, while the scaling-up of ART provision was associated with reduced early mortality.

From bouncing back, to nurturing emergence: reframing the concept of resilience in health systems strengthening.

Recent health system shocks such as the Ebola disease outbreak have focused global health attention on the notion of resilient health systems. In this commentary, we reflect on the current framing of the concept of resilience in health systems discourse and propose a reframing. Specifically, we propose that: (1) in addition to sudden shocks, health systems face the ongoing strain of multiple factors. Health systems need the capacity to continue to deliver services of good quality and respond effectively to wider health challenges. We call this capacity everyday resilience; (2) health system resilience entails more than bouncing back from shock. In complex adaptive systems (CAS), resilience emerges from a combination of absorptive, adaptive and transformative strategies; (3) nurturing the resilience of health systems requires understanding health systems as comprising not only hardware elements (such as finances and infrastructure), but also software elements (such as leadership capacity, power relations, values and appropriate organizational culture). We also reflect on current criticisms of the concept of resilient health systems, such as that it assumes that systems are apolitical, ignoring actor agency, promoting inaction, and requiring that we accept and embrace vulnerability, rather than strive for stronger and more responsive systems. We observe that these criticisms are warranted to the extent that they refer to notions of resilience that are mismatched with the reality of health systems as CAS. We argue that the observed weaknesses of resilience thinking can be addressed by reframing and applying a resilience lens that is better suited to the attributes of health systems as CAS.