Sustained Reductions of Bay Area CO2 Emissions 2018-2022.

Cities represent a significant and growing portion of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Quantifying urban emissions and trends over time is needed to evaluate the efficacy of policy targeting emission reductions as well as to understand more fundamental questions about the urban biosphere. A number of approaches have been proposed to measure, report, and verify (MRV) changes in urban CO2 emissions. Here we show that a modest capital cost, spatially dense network of sensors, the Berkeley Environmental Air Quality and CO2 Network (BEACO2N), in combination with Bayesian inversions, result in a synthesis of measured CO2 concentrations and meteorology to yield an improved estimate of CO2 emissions and provide a cost-effective and accurate assessment of CO2 emissions trends over time. We describe nearly 5 years of continuous CO2 observations (2018-2022) in a midsized urban region (the San Francisco Bay Area). These observed concentrations constrain a Bayesian inversion that indicates the interannual trend in urban CO2 emissions in the region has been a modest decrease at a rate of 1.8 ± 0.3%/year. We interpret this decrease as primarily due to passenger vehicle electrification, reducing on-road emissions at a rate of 2.6 ± 0.7%/year.

Temperature-dependent emissions dominate aerosol and ozone formation in Los Angeles.

Despite declines in transportation emissions, urban North America and Europe still face unhealthy air pollution levels. This has challenged conventional understanding of the sources of their volatile organic compound (VOC) precursors. Using airborne flux measurements to map emissions of a wide range of VOCs, we demonstrate that biogenic terpenoid emissions contribute ~60% of emitted VOC OH reactivity, ozone, and secondary organic aerosol formation potential in summertime Los Angeles and that this contribution strongly increases with temperature. This implies that control of nitrogen oxides is key to reducing ozone formation in Los Angeles. We also show some anthropogenic VOC emissions increase with temperature, which is an effect not represented in current inventories. Air pollution mitigation efforts must consider that climate warming will strongly change emission amounts and composition.