Emergence of immune escape at dominant SARS-CoV-2 killer T cell epitope.

We studied the prevalent cytotoxic CD8 T cell response mounted against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Spike glycoprotein269-277 epitope (sequence YLQPRTFLL) via the most frequent human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I worldwide, HLA A∗02. The Spike P272L mutation that has arisen in at least 112 different SARS-CoV-2 lineages to date, including in lineages classified as "variants of concern," was not recognized by the large CD8 T cell response seen across cohorts of HLA A∗02+ convalescent patients and individuals vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, despite these responses comprising of over 175 different individual T cell receptors. Viral escape at prevalent T cell epitopes restricted by high frequency HLAs may be particularly problematic when vaccine immunity is focused on a single protein such as SARS-CoV-2 Spike, providing a strong argument for inclusion of multiple viral proteins in next generation vaccines and highlighting the need for monitoring T cell escape in new SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Generation and transmission of interlineage recombinants in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

We present evidence for multiple independent origins of recombinant SARS-CoV-2 viruses sampled from late 2020 and early 2021 in the United Kingdom. Their genomes carry single-nucleotide polymorphisms and deletions that are characteristic of the B.1.1.7 variant of concern but lack the full complement of lineage-defining mutations. Instead, the remainder of their genomes share contiguous genetic variation with non-B.1.1.7 viruses circulating in the same geographic area at the same time as the recombinants. In four instances, there was evidence for onward transmission of a recombinant-origin virus, including one transmission cluster of 45 sequenced cases over the course of 2 months. The inferred genomic locations of recombination breakpoints suggest that every community-transmitted recombinant virus inherited its spike region from a B.1.1.7 parental virus, consistent with a transmission advantage for B.1.1.7's set of mutations.

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant.

Dynamic regulation of hypoxia-inducible factor-1α activity is essential for normal B cell development.

B lymphocyte development and selection are central to adaptive immunity and self-tolerance. These processes require B cell receptor (BCR) signaling and occur in bone marrow, an environment with variable hypoxia, but whether hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) is involved is unknown. We show that HIF activity is high in human and murine bone marrow pro-B and pre-B cells and decreases at the immature B cell stage. This stage-specific HIF suppression is required for normal B cell development because genetic activation of HIF-1α in murine B cells led to reduced repertoire diversity, decreased BCR editing and developmental arrest of immature B cells, resulting in reduced peripheral B cell numbers. HIF-1α activation lowered surface BCR, CD19 and B cell-activating factor receptor and increased expression of proapoptotic BIM. BIM deletion rescued the developmental block. Administration of a HIF activator in clinical use markedly reduced bone marrow and transitional B cells, which has therapeutic implications. Together, our work demonstrates that dynamic regulation of HIF-1α is essential for normal B cell development.

Phylogenetic and phylodynamic approaches to understanding and combating the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

Determining the transmissibility, prevalence and patterns of movement of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections is central to our understanding of the impact of the pandemic and to the design of effective control strategies. Phylogenies (evolutionary trees) have provided key insights into the international spread of SARS-CoV-2 and enabled investigation of individual outbreaks and transmission chains in specific settings. Phylodynamic approaches combine evolutionary, demographic and epidemiological concepts and have helped track virus genetic changes, identify emerging variants and inform public health strategy. Here, we review and synthesize studies that illustrate how phylogenetic and phylodynamic techniques were applied during the first year of the pandemic, and summarize their contributions to our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and control.

Context-specific emergence and growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant.

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta (Pango lineage B.1.617.2) variant of concern spread globally, causing resurgences of COVID-19 worldwide1,2. The emergence of the Delta variant in the UK occurred on the background of a heterogeneous landscape of immunity and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here we analyse 52,992 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from England together with 93,649 genomes from the rest of the world to reconstruct the emergence of Delta and quantify its introduction to and regional dissemination across England in the context of changing travel and social restrictions. Using analysis of human movement, contact tracing and virus genomic data, we find that the geographic focus of the expansion of Delta shifted from India to a more global pattern in early May 2021. In England, Delta lineages were introduced more than 1,000 times and spread nationally as non-pharmaceutical interventions were relaxed. We find that hotel quarantine for travellers reduced onward transmission from importations; however, the transmission chains that later dominated the Delta wave in England were seeded before travel restrictions were introduced. Increasing inter-regional travel within England drove the nationwide dissemination of Delta, with some cities receiving more than 2,000 observable lineage introductions from elsewhere. Subsequently, increased levels of local population mixing-and not the number of importations-were associated with the faster relative spread of Delta. The invasion dynamics of Delta depended on spatial heterogeneity in contact patterns, and our findings will inform optimal spatial interventions to reduce the transmission of current and future variants of concern, such as Omicron (Pango lineage B.1.1.529).

Genome sequencing and analysis of the Tasmanian devil and its transmissible cancer.

The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii), the largest marsupial carnivore, is endangered due to a transmissible facial cancer spread by direct transfer of living cancer cells through biting. Here we describe the sequencing, assembly, and annotation of the Tasmanian devil genome and whole-genome sequences for two geographically distant subclones of the cancer. Genomic analysis suggests that the cancer first arose from a female Tasmanian devil and that the clone has subsequently genetically diverged during its spread across Tasmania. The devil cancer genome contains more than 17,000 somatic base substitution mutations and bears the imprint of a distinct mutational process. Genotyping of somatic mutations in 104 geographically and temporally distributed Tasmanian devil tumors reveals the pattern of evolution and spread of this parasitic clonal lineage, with evidence of a selective sweep in one geographical area and persistence of parallel lineages in other populations.

Unified understanding of the impact of semiflexibility, concentration, and molecular weight on macromolecular-scale ring diffusion.

Conformationally fluctuating, globally compact macromolecules such as polymeric rings, single-chain nanoparticles, microgels, and many-arm stars display complex dynamic behaviors due to their rich topological structure and intermolecular organization. Synthetic rings are hybrid objects with conformations that display both ideal random walk and compact globular features, which can serve as models of genomic DNA. To date, emphasis has been placed on the effect of ring molecular weight on their unusual behaviors. Here, we combine simulations and a microscopic force-level theory to build a unified understanding for how key aspects of ring dynamics depend on different tunable molecular properties including backbone rigidity, monomer concentration, degree of traditional entanglement, and molecular weight. Our large-scale molecular dynamics simulations of ring melts with very different backbone stiffnesses reveal unanticipated behaviors which agree well with our generalized theory. This includes a universal master curve for center-of-mass diffusion constants as a function of molecular weight scaled by a chemistry and thermodynamic state-dependent critical molecular weight that generalizes the concept of an entanglement cross-over for linear chains. The key physics is how backbone rigidity and monomer concentration induced changes of the entanglement length, interring packing, degree of interpenetration, and liquid compressibility slow down space-time dynamic-force correlations on macromolecular scales. A power law decay of the center-of-mass diffusion constant with inverse molecular weight squared is the first consequence, followed by an ultraslow activated hopping transport regime. Our results set the stage to address slow dynamics and kinetic arrest in different families of compact synthetic and biological polymeric systems.

A Proofreading Mutation with an Allosteric Effect Allows a Cluster of SARS-CoV-2 Viruses to Rapidly Evolve.

The RNA-dependent RNA polymerase of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus is error prone, with errors being corrected by the exonuclease (NSP14) proofreading mechanism. However, the mutagenesis and subsequent evolutionary trajectory of the virus is mediated by the delicate interplay of replicase fidelity and environmental pressures. Here, we have shown that a single, distal mutation (F60S) in NSP14 can have a profound impact upon proofreading with an increased accumulation of mutations and elevated evolutionary rate being observed. Understanding the implications of these changes is crucial, as these underlying mutational processes may have important implications for understanding the population-wide evolution of the virus. This study underscores the urgent need for continued research into the replicative mechanisms of this virus to combat its continued impact on global health, through the re-emergence of immuno-evasive variants.

Segmenting hypothalamic subunits in human newborn magnetic resonance imaging data.

Preclinical evidence suggests that inter-individual variation in the structure of the hypothalamus at birth is associated with variation in the intrauterine environment, with downstream implications for future disease susceptibility. However, scientific advancement in humans is limited by a lack of validated methods for the automatic segmentation of the newborn hypothalamus. N = 215 healthy full-term infants with paired T1-/T2-weighted MR images across four sites were considered for primary analyses (mean postmenstrual age = 44.3 ± 3.5 weeks, nmale /nfemale = 110/106). The outputs of FreeSurfer's hypothalamic subunit segmentation tools designed for adults (segFS) were compared against those of a novel registration-based pipeline developed here (segATLAS) and against manually edited segmentations (segMAN) as reference. Comparisons were made using Dice Similarity Coefficients (DSCs) and through expected associations with postmenstrual age at scan. In addition, we aimed to demonstrate the validity of the segATLAS pipeline by testing for the stability of inter-individual variation in hypothalamic volume across the first year of life (n = 41 longitudinal datasets available). SegFS and segATLAS segmentations demonstrated a wide spread in agreement (mean DSC = 0.65 ± 0.14 SD; range = {0.03-0.80}). SegATLAS volumes were more highly correlated with postmenstrual age at scan than segFS volumes (n = 215 infants; RsegATLAS 2 = 65% vs. RsegFS 2 = 40%), and segATLAS volumes demonstrated a higher degree of agreement with segMAN reference segmentations at the whole hypothalamus (segATLAS DSC = 0.89 ± 0.06 SD; segFS DSC = 0.68 ± 0.14 SD) and subunit levels (segATLAS DSC = 0.80 ± 0.16 SD; segFS DSC = 0.40 ± 0.26 SD). In addition, segATLAS (but not segFS) volumes demonstrated stability from near birth to ~1 years age (n = 41; R2 = 25%; p < 10-3 ). These findings highlight segATLAS as a valid and publicly available (https://github.com/jerodras/neonate_hypothalamus_seg) pipeline for the segmentation of hypothalamic subunits using human newborn MRI up to 3 months of age collected at resolutions on the order of 1 mm isotropic. Because the hypothalamus is traditionally understudied due to a lack of high-quality segmentation tools during the early life period, and because the hypothalamus is of high biological relevance to human growth and development, this tool may stimulate developmental and clinical research by providing new insight into the unique role of the hypothalamus and its subunits in shaping trajectories of early life health and disease.

Measuring Topological Constraint Relaxation in Ring-Linear Polymer Blends.

Polymers are an effective test bed for studying topological constraints in condensed matter due to a wide array of synthetically available chain topologies. When linear and ring polymers are blended together, emergent rheological properties are observed as the blend can be more viscous than either of the individual components. This emergent behavior arises since ring-linear blends can form long-lived topological constraints as the linear polymers thread the ring polymers. Here, we demonstrate how the Gauss linking integral can be used to efficiently evaluate the relaxation of topological constraints in ring-linear polymer blends. For majority-linear blends, the relaxation rate of topological constraints depends primarily on reptation of the linear polymers, resulting in the diffusive time τ_{d,R} for rings of length N_{R} blended with linear chains of length N_{l} to scale as τ_{d,R}∼N_{R}^{2}N_{L}^{3.4}.

Age of Juice Introduction and Cardiometabolic Outcomes in Middle Childhood.

BACKGROUND: The American Academy of Pediatrics recommends juice introduction after 12 months of age. Juice consumption has been linked to childhood obesity and cardiometabolic risk. OBJECTIVES: To examine the prospective relationship between the age of juice introduction and primary and secondary cardiometabolic outcomes in middle childhood. METHODS: Parents reported the age of juice introduction on Upstate KIDS questionnaires completed between 4 and 18 months. The quantity and type of juice introduced were not measured. Anthropometry, blood pressure (BP), and arterial stiffness by pulse wave velocity (PWV) were measured for 524 children (age, 8-10 y) at study visits (2017-2019). Age- and gender-adjusted z-scores were calculated using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reference for anthropometrics. Plasma lipids, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), and C-reactive protein (CRP) in a subset of children were also measured (n = 248). Associations between age at juice introduction (categorized as <6, 6 to <12, ≥12 months), and outcomes were estimated using mean differences and odds ratios, applying generalized estimating equations to account for correlations between twins. RESULTS: Approximately 18% of children were introduced to juice at <6 months, 52% between 6 and <12 months, and 30% ≥ 12 months of age. Children who were introduced to juice before 6 months had higher systolic BP (3.13 mmHg; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.52, 5.74), heart rate (4.46 bpm; 95% CI: 1.05, 7.87), and mean arterial pressure (2.08 mmHg; 95% CI: 0.15, 4.00) compared with those introduced ≥12 months after covariate adjustment including sociodemographic factors and maternal prepregnancy body mass index. No adjusted differences in anthropometry, lipids, HbA1c, and CRP levels were found. CONCLUSIONS: Early juice introduction during infancy was associated with higher systolic BP, heart rate, and mean arterial pressure in middle childhood. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03106493 (https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03106493?term=upstate%20KIDS&rank=1).

Developmental characteristics and accuracy of autism screening among two-year-old toddlers in the ECHO program.

BACKGROUND: The Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (M-CHAT) is a common pediatric screening tool with mixed accuracy findings. Prior evidence supports M-CHAT screening for developmental concerns, especially in toddlers born preterm. This study examined M-CHAT accuracy in a large, nationwide sample. METHODS: 3393 participants from the Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) program were included. Harmonized M-CHAT (M-CHAT-H) results were compared with parent-reported autism diagnosis and autism-related characteristics to assess accuracy for term and preterm children, together and separately. Generalized estimating equations, clustering for ECHO cohort and controlling for demographic covariates, were used to examine associations between developmental and behavioral characteristics with M-CHAT-H accuracy. RESULTS: Sensitivity of the M-CHAT-H ranged from 36 to 60%; specificity ranged from 88 to 99%. Positive M-CHAT-H was associated with more developmental delays and behavior problems. Children with severe motor delays and more autism-related problems were more likely to have a false-negative M-CHAT-H. Children with fewer behavior problems and fewer autism-related concerns were more likely to have a false-positive screen. CONCLUSION: The M-CHAT-H accurately detects children at low risk for autism and children at increased risk with moderate accuracy. These findings support use of the M-CHAT-H in assessing autism risk and developmental and behavioral concerns in children. IMPACT: Previous literature regarding accuracy of the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (M-CHAT) is mixed but this study provides evidence that the M-CHAT performs well in detecting children at low risk for autism and consistently detects children with developmental delays and behavioral problems. The M-CHAT moderately detects children at increased risk for autism and remains a useful screening tool. This study examines M-CHAT accuracy in a large-scale, nationwide sample, examining associations between screening accuracy and developmental outcomes. These findings impact pediatric screening for autism, supporting continued use of the M-CHAT while further elucidating the factors associated with inaccurate screens.

Association between maternal stress and child sleep quality: a nationwide ECHO prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Childhood sleep quality is associated with physical, cognitive, and behavioral health and predicts later sleep quality; it has many determinants, including developmental exposures. OBJECTIVES: To examine associations between maternal stress during pregnancy and childhood sleep quality and determine whether postnatal stress mediates the association. METHOD: Data from the Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes cohort were used. Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) T-scores were the exposure measure. Outcome measures were preschool Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) sleep syndrome scale and Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System Sleep Disturbance Parent Proxy short form 4a (PSD4a) T-scores at ages 4-8 years. Linear mixed-effects regression modeling was performed for each sleep outcome, adjusting for maternal age at delivery and education and child sex, gestational age at birth, and age at outcome ascertainment, with random intercepts for cohorts. RESULTS: Prenatal PSS score was associated with both CBCL (B = 0.09, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.06, 0.11; p < 0.01) and PSD4a (B = 0.07, 95% CI: 0.03, 0.12; p < 0.01) scores. Postnatal perceived stress mediated a proportion of the total effect of prenatal stress in both CBCL (66.3%) and PSD4a (95.9%) samples. CONCLUSIONS: Both pre- and postnatal maternal perceived stress appear to influence sleep quality during early life. IMPACT: Prenatal stress significantly associates with child sleep problems and disturbances at ages 4-8 years; postnatal maternal stress is a significant mediator of these associations. Research suggests a range of prenatal affective/distress exposures associated with child sleep problems, but the conclusions remain in doubt due to the mixture of exposures and outcomes employed. Ours is the first US-based effort to explore associations between perceived maternal stress during pregnancy and child sleep problems and disturbance in early and middle childhood. Even a small effect of a prevalent issue like psychosocial stress may have important public health implications at the population level.

Combining developmental and sleep health measures for autism spectrum disorder screening: an ECHO study.

BACKGROUND: Sleep problems are reported for up to 80% of autistic individuals. We examined whether parsimonious sets of items derived from the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers, Revised (M-CHAT-R) and the Brief Infant Sleep Questionnaire (BISQ) are superior to the standard M-CHAT-R in predicting subsequent autism spectrum disorder (ASD) diagnoses. METHODS: Participants from 11 Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) cohorts were included. We performed logistic LASSO regression models with 10-fold cross-validation to identify whether a combination of items derived from the M-CHAT-R and BISQ are superior to the standard M-CHAT-R in predicting ASD diagnoses. RESULTS: The final sample comprised 1552 children. The standard M-CHAT-R had a sensitivity of 44% (95% CI: 34, 55), specificity of 92% (95% CI: 91, 94), and AUROC of 0.726 (95% CI: 0.663, 0.790). A higher proportion of children with ASD had difficulty falling asleep or resisted bedtime during infancy/toddlerhood. However, LASSO models revealed parental reports of sleep problems did not improve the accuracy of the M-CHAT-R in predicting ASD diagnosis. CONCLUSION: While children with ASD had higher rates of sleep problems during infancy/toddlerhood, there was no improvement in ASD developmental screening through the incorporation of parent-report sleep metrics. IMPACT: Parental-reported sleep problems are common in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). We investigated whether the inclusion of parental-reports of infant/toddler sleep patterns enhanced the effectiveness of developmental screening for autism. We reported higher rates of difficulty falling asleep and resisting bedtime during infancy and toddlerhood among children later diagnosed with ASD; however, we did not find an improvement in ASD developmental screening through the incorporation of parent-report sleep metrics. In our sample, the standard M-CHAT-R had a sensitivity of 39% among children of mothers with government insurance compared with a sensitivity of 53% among children of mothers with employer-based insurance.

Exposure to Low-Level Air Pollution and Hyperglycemia Markers during Pregnancy: A Repeated Measure Analysis.

Epidemiologic evidence has emerged showing an association between exposure to air pollution and increased risks of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). This study examines the effect of low-level air pollution exposure on a subclinical biomarker of hyperglycemia (i.e., HbA1c) in pregnant people without diabetes before conception. We measured HbA1c in 577 samples repeatedly collected from 224 pregnant people in Rochester, NY, and estimated residential concentrations of PM2.5 and NO2 using high-resolution spatiotemporal models. We observed a U-shaped trajectory of HbA1c during pregnancy with average HbA1c levels of 5.13 (±0.52), 4.97 (±0.54), and 5.43 (±0.40)% in early-, mid-, and late pregnancy, respectively. After adjustment for the U-shaped trajectory and classic GDM risk factors, each interquartile range increase in 10 week NO2 concentration (8.0 ppb) was associated with 0.09% (95% CI: 0.02 to 0.16%) and 0.18% (95% CI: 0.08 to 0.28%) increases in HbA1c over the entire pregnancy and in late pregnancy, respectively. These associations remained robust among participants without GDM. Using separate distributed lag models, we identified a period between 8th and 14th gestational weeks as critical windows responsible for increased levels of HbA1c measured at 14th, 22nd, and 30th gestational weeks. Our results suggest that low-level air pollution contributes to hyperglycemia in medically low-risk pregnant people.

Effects of process intensification on homogeneity of an IgG1:κ monoclonal antibody during perfusion culture.

The pharmaceutical industry employs various strategies to improve cell productivity. These strategies include process intensification, culture media improvement, clonal selection, media supplementation and genetic engineering of cells. However, improved cell productivity has inherent risk of impacting product quality attributes (PQA). PQAs may affect the products' efficacy via stability, bioavailability, or in vivo bioactivity. Variations in manufacturing process may introduce heterogeneity in the products by altering the type and extent of N-glycosylation, which is a PQA of therapeutic proteins. We investigated the effect of different cell densities representing increasing process intensification in a perfusion cell culture on the production of an IgG1-κ monoclonal antibody from a CHO-K1 cell line. This antibody is glycosylated both on light chain and heavy chain. Our results showed that the contents of glycosylation of IgG1-κ mAb increased in G0F and fucosylated type glycans as a group, whereas sialylated type glycans decreased, for the mAb whole protein. Overall, significant differences were observed in amounts of G0F, G1F, G0, G2FS1, and G2FS2 type glycans across all process intensification levels. G2FS2 and G2 type N-glycans were predominantly quantifiable from light chain rather than heavy chain. It may be concluded that there is a potential impact to product quality attributes of therapeutic proteins during process intensification via perfusion cell culture that needs to be assessed. Since during perfusion cell culture the product is collected throughout the duration of the process, lot allocation needs careful attention to process parameters, as PQAs are affected by the critical process parameters (CPPs). KEY POINTS: • Molecular integrity may suffer with increasing process intensity. • Galactosylated and sialylated N-glycans may decrease. • Perfusion culture appears to maintain protein charge structure.

Demographic and health characteristics associated with fish and n-3 fatty acid supplement intake during pregnancy: results from pregnancy cohorts in the ECHO programme.

OBJECTIVE: n-3 fatty acid consumption during pregnancy is recommended for optimal pregnancy outcomes and offspring health. We examined characteristics associated with self-reported fish or n-3 supplement intake. DESIGN: Pooled pregnancy cohort studies. SETTING: Cohorts participating in the Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) consortium with births from 1999 to 2020. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 10 800 pregnant women in twenty-three cohorts with food frequency data on fish consumption; 12 646 from thirty-five cohorts with information on supplement use. RESULTS: Overall, 24·6 % reported consuming fish never or less than once per month, 40·1 % less than once a week, 22·1 % 1-2 times per week and 13·2 % more than twice per week. The relative risk (RR) of ever (v. never) consuming fish was higher in participants who were older (1·14, 95 % CI 1·10, 1·18 for 35-40 v. <29 years), were other than non-Hispanic White (1·13, 95 % CI 1·08, 1·18 for non-Hispanic Black; 1·05, 95 % CI 1·01, 1·10 for non-Hispanic Asian; 1·06, 95 % CI 1·02, 1·10 for Hispanic) or used tobacco (1·04, 95 % CI 1·01, 1·08). The RR was lower in those with overweight v. healthy weight (0·97, 95 % CI 0·95, 1·0). Only 16·2 % reported n-3 supplement use, which was more common among individuals with a higher age and education, a lower BMI, and fish consumption (RR 1·5, 95 % CI 1·23, 1·82 for twice-weekly v. never). CONCLUSIONS: One-quarter of participants in this large nationwide dataset rarely or never consumed fish during pregnancy, and n-3 supplement use was uncommon, even among those who did not consume fish.

Do small effects matter more in vulnerable populations? an investigation using Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) cohorts.

BACKGROUND: A major challenge in epidemiology is knowing when an exposure effect is large enough to be clinically important, in particular how to interpret a difference in mean outcome in unexposed/exposed groups. Where it can be calculated, the proportion/percentage beyond a suitable cut-point is useful in defining individuals at high risk to give a more meaningful outcome. In this simulation study we compute differences in outcome means and proportions that arise from hypothetical small effects in vulnerable sub-populations. METHODS: Data from over 28,000 mother/child pairs belonging to the Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes Program were used to examine the impact of hypothetical environmental exposures on mean birthweight, and low birthweight (LBW) (birthweight < 2500g). We computed mean birthweight in unexposed/exposed groups by sociodemographic categories (maternal education, health insurance, race, ethnicity) using a range of hypothetical exposure effect sizes. We compared the difference in mean birthweight and the percentage LBW, calculated using a distributional approach. RESULTS: When the hypothetical mean exposure effect was fixed (at 50, 125, 167 or 250g), the absolute difference in % LBW (risk difference) was not constant but varied by socioeconomic categories. The risk differences were greater in sub-populations with the highest baseline percentages LBW: ranging from 3.1-5.3 percentage points for exposure effect of 125g. Similar patterns were seen for other mean exposure sizes simulated. CONCLUSIONS: Vulnerable sub-populations with greater baseline percentages at high risk fare worse when exposed to a small insult compared to the general population. This illustrates another facet of health disparity in vulnerable individuals.