The State of Firearm Policy Research in the United States.

Firearm-related deaths lead to the most person-years of life lost in the US. There were 48,830 deaths from homicides and suicides in 2021 alone. Firearm access remains at an all-time high in most states - indicated by record manufacturing, sales, employment in firearm industry, taxes collected from sales, and the number of federal background check applications in 2020 and 2021. Yet, firearm injury is a politically contentious topic to the point of stalling progress on an important public health topic. This politicization led to nearly three decades of federal disinvestment in firearm research; reduced surveillance of firearm-related crime, injury, and death; and degraded data quality. This left generations of researchers with limited epidemiologic tools to conduct firearm policy research, jeopardizing the amount and quality of research conducted. Despite these limitations, research has persisted and promising approaches to reduce firearm morbidity and mortality have been identified. Yet the field has struggled to keep pace with methodological advancements and conceptualizations of racial and ethnic disparities as products of systemic racism. In this commentary, we highlight some existing evidence-informed policies, explicate some limitations in the field, and identify opportunities to address the limitations of prior work to strengthen future capacity for evidence-informed prevention.

National Burden of Injury and Deaths From Shootings by Police in the United States, 2015‒2020.

Objectives. To describe all-outcome injurious shootings by police and compare characteristics of fatal versus nonfatal injurious shootings nationally. Methods. From July 2021 to April 2023, we manually reviewed publicly available records on all 2015-2020 injurious shootings by US police, identified from Gun Violence Archive. We estimated injury frequency, case fatality rates, and relative odds of death by incident and victim characteristics. Results. A total of 1769 people were injured annually in shootings by police, 55% fatally. When a shooting injury occurred, odds of fatality were 46% higher following dispatched responses than police-initiated responses. Injuries associated with physically threatening or threat-making behaviors, behavioral health needs, and well-being checks were most frequently fatal. Relative to White victims, Black victims were overrepresented but had 35% lower odds of fatal injury when shot. Conclusions. This first multiyear, nationwide analysis of injurious shootings by US police suggests that injury disparities are underestimated by fatal shootings alone. Nonpolicing responses to social needs may prevent future injuries. Public Health Implications. We call for enhanced reporting systems, comprehensive evaluation of emerging reforms, and targeted investment in social services for equitable injury prevention. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(4):387-397. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307560).

Officer gunpoint during police stops: Repercussions for youth mental health and perceived safety.

Youth-police contact is increasingly acknowledged as a stressor and a racialized adverse childhood experience that can undermine youths' mental health. The present study investigates a particularly distressing feature of youths' direct and witnessed in-person police stops-officer gunpoint (i.e., officers drawing of firearms and pointing them at youth, their peers, or other community members). We examine patterns of youths' officer gunpoint exposure and associations with youth mental health and safety perceptions. Data come from the Survey of Police-Adolescent Contact Experiences (SPACE), a cross-sectional survey of a community-based sample of Black youth ages 12-21 in Baltimore City, Maryland (n = 335), administered from August 2022 to July 2023. Findings indicate that ~33% of youth reporting in-person police stops had been exposed to officer gunpoint during stops. Officer gunpoint was significantly and positively associated with being male, unemployed, having an incarcerated parent, living in a neighborhood with greater disorder, and having been directly stopped by police, in addition to youth delinquency and impulsivity. Net of covariates, experiencing officer gunpoint was associated with a significantly higher rate of youth emotional distress during stops. Significant associations between officer gunpoint and youths' current police violence stress, police avoidance, and diminished safety perceptions also emerged and were largely explained by youths' heightened emotional distress at the time of police stops. Trauma-informed approaches are needed to mitigate the mental health harms of youth experiencing officer gunpoint.

Impact of Changes to Concealed-Carry Weapons Laws on Fatal and Nonfatal Violent Crime, 1980-2019.

The United States faces rapidly rising rates of violent crime committed with firearms. In this study, we sought to estimate the impact of changes to laws that regulate the concealed carrying of weapons (concealed-carry weapons (CCW) laws) on violent crimes committed with a firearm. We used augmented synthetic control models and random-effects meta-analyses to estimate state-specific effects and the average effect of adopting shall-issue CCW permitting laws on rates of 6 violent crimes: homicide with a gun, homicide by other means, aggravated assault with a gun, aggravated assault with a knife, robbery with a gun, and robbery with a knife. The average effects were stratified according to the presence or absence of several shall-issue permit provisions. Adoption of a shall-issue CCW law was associated with a 9.5% increase in rates of assault with a firearm during the first 10 years after law adoption and was associated with an 8.8% increase in rates of homicide by other means. When shall-issue laws allowed violent misdemeanants to acquire CCW permits, the laws were associated with higher rates of gun assaults. It is likely that adoption of shall-issue CCW laws has increased rates of nonfatal violent crime committed with firearms. Harmful effects of shall-issue laws are most clear when provisions intended to reduce risks associated with civilian gun-carrying are absent.

Nonfatal Violence Involving Days Away From Work Following California's 2017 Workplace Violence Prevention in Health Care Safety Standard.

Objectives. To examine the impact of the California Occupational Safety and Health Administration's (Cal/OSHA's) 2017 workplace violence (WPV) prevention in health care safety standard on nonfatal violent injuries among health care workers (HCWs). Methods. We accessed estimated counts of WPV from the survey of occupational injuries and illness from 2011 to 2019 specific to HCWs. We used the Current Population Survey estimates of HCWs to create rates per 10 000. We conducted a longitudinal panel analysis and a comparative interrupted time-series analysis to examine the change in incidence and in rates associated with California's new standard. Results. Adoption of the 2017 safety standard led to an additional 3.48 reported WPV injuries per 10 000 HCWs in California, or an additional 473 injuries. Sensitivity analyses suggest other injuries did not change in the same period. Conclusions. It appears that the Cal/OSHA standard increased reporting of WPV injuries among HCWs in the first year of its adoption compared with the United States. Mandating reporting of all WPV incidents in the health care setting may be a means to ensure a more complete understanding of this public health problem. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(11):1668-1675. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.307029).

The association between vacant housing demolition and safety and health in Baltimore, MD.

We measured the association between vacant housing demolitions and changes in crime and emergency department (ED) visits in Baltimore, MD. We included 646 block groups in Baltimore, 224 of which experienced at least one demolition from 2012 to 2019. The exposure was the number of demolitions completed in a block group during the previous quarter. Crime (all, property, and violent) and ED visits (all, adults, children, and for specific causes) were examined as the change in the rate per 1000 people from the previous quarter to the current quarter and analyzed using multivariable mixed effects regression models. Demolitions were associated with a small decrease in total ED visits (difference = -0.068 per 1000 people from the previous quarter to the current quarter, 95% CI -0.119, -0.018) but no significant change in crime. For each demolition, the rate of total child ED visits was 0.452 lower compared to the previous quarter (95% CI -0.777, -0.127). Demolitions were associated with small decreases in adult injury-related ED visits in the short term.

How place and race drive the numbers of fatal police shootings in the US: 2015-2020.

Place and race are two important predictors of fatal police shootings. We used Mapping Police Violence Data and the Washington Post Fatal Force Data to determine whether a county's deprivation status within communities influences the association between the number of fatal police shootings, and how the number of fatal police shootings differs by race and ethnicity. We categorized counties based on the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) to three categories: low-, medium-, and high-SVI. The analytical sample included 3136 US counties between 2015 and 2020; during this time, 5525 individuals were fatally shot by police. Our findings show that place strongly impacts the number of fatal police shootings. Among all fatal shootings, 713 occurred in low-SVI counties, 1660 in middle-SVI, and 3152 in high-SVI counties. Race played a significant role; fatal shooting deaths increased by 2.3 times among White individuals, 9.6 times among Black individuals, and 15 times among Hispanic individuals between low- and high-SVI counties. The results of negative binomial regressions show a strong association between fatal police shootings and the counties' characteristics. In comparison with low-SVI counties, residents in counties with moderate and high-SVI are more likely to be fatally shot by police by 4.9 and 5.8 percentage points. In addressing violence and fatal police shootings, the vulnerability of counties and the population's racial composition play significant roles and need specific attention in addressing systemic racial disparities in the criminal justice system.

Public opinion on laws regulating public gun carrying.

This study sought to examine public support for gun carrying-related policies from 2019 to 2021, a period encompassing the COVID-19 pandemic and increasing calls for racial and social justice. We conducted the National Survey of Gun Policy in January 2019 and 2021. The surveys were fielded using the NORC AmeriSpeak panel. Respondents indicated support for six policies regulating civilian gun carrying. Analyses, conducted in 2021, incorporated survey weights for nationally representative estimates. There were significant declines in support from 2019 to 2021 for two policies that would expand where civilians can lawfully carry guns: allowing concealed carry when on K-12 school grounds (23% in 2021 vs 31% in 2019) and college/university campuses (27% vs 36%). Support was also significantly lower for requiring concealed carry applicants to pass a test demonstrating safe and lawful use (74% in 2021 vs 81% in 2019). For the two new policies in the 2021 survey, more than half of respondents overall supported prohibiting open carry at demonstrations/rallies (54%) and prohibiting the carry of guns into government buildings (69%). There was lower support among gun owners (39% and 57%, respectively). Since 2019, there has been a decline in support for expanding locations for civilian gun carrying. Support remains high among U.S. adults, including the two-thirds of gun owners, for requiring concealed carry applicants to demonstrate competence in safe and lawful gun use. Our findings in support of a more regulated approach to concealed carry are in direct contrast to state-level shifts eliminating concealed gun carrying regulations.

Reimagining public safety: Public opinion on police reform and gun violence prevention by race and gun ownership in the United States.

Inequitable experiences of community gun violence and victimization by police use of force led to nationwide calls to "reimagine public safety" in 2020. In January 2021, we examined public support among U.S. adults for 7 policy approaches to reforming policing and investing in community gun violence prevention. Using a nationally representative sample (N = 2778), with oversampling for Black Americans, Hispanic Americans, and gun owners, we assessed support overall and by racial, ethnic, and gun owner subgroups. Overall, we found majority support for funding and implementing police and mental health co-responder models (66% and 76%, respectively), diversion from incarceration for people with symptoms of mental illness (72%), stronger laws to assure police accountability (72%), and funding for community-based and hospital-based gun violence prevention programs (69% and 60%, respectively). Support for redirecting funding from the police to social services was more variable (44% overall; White: 35%, Black: 60%, Hispanic: 43%). For all survey items, support was strongest among Black Americans. Gun owners overall reported lower support for public safety reforms and investments than respondents who did not own guns, but this distinction was found to be driven by White gun owners. The views of Black gun owners were indistinguishable from Black non-owners and were similar to White non-owners on most issues. These findings suggest that broad public support exists for innovative violence reduction strategies and public safety reforms.

National support for gun policies among U.S. adults in 2019 and 2021.

Gun-related deaths and gun purchases were at record highs in 2020. In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, public protests against police violence, and a tense political environment, which may influence policy preferences, we aimed to understand the current state of support for gun policies in the U.S. We fielded a national public opinion survey in January 2019 and January 2021 using an online panel to measure support for 34 gun policies among U.S. adults. We compared support over time, by gun ownership status, and by political party affiliation. Most respondents supported 33 of the 34 gun regulations studied. Support for seven restrictive policies declined from 2019 to 2021, driven by reduced support among non-gun owners. Support declined for three permissive policies: allowing legal gun carriers to bring guns onto college campuses or K-12 schools and stand your ground laws. Public support for gun-related policies decreased from 2019 to 2021, driven by decreased support among Republicans and non-gun owners.

National support for gun policies among U.S. adults in 2019 and 2021.

Gun-related deaths and gun purchases were at record highs in 2020. In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, public protests against police violence, and a tense political environment, which may influence policy preferences, we aimed to understand the current state of support for gun policies in the U.S. We fielded a national public opinion survey in January 2019 and January 2021 using an online panel to measure support for 34 gun policies among U.S. adults. We compared support over time, by gun ownership status, and by political party affiliation. Most respondents supported 33 of the 34 gun regulations studied. Support for seven restrictive policies declined from 2019 to 2021, driven by reduced support among non-gun owners. Support declined for three permissive policies: allowing legal gun carriers to bring guns onto college campuses or K-12 schools and stand your ground laws. Public support for gun-related policies decreased from 2019 to 2021, driven by decreased support among Republicans and non-gun owners.

Officer-Involved Shootings and Concealed Carry Weapons Permitting Laws: Analysis of Gun Violence Archive Data, 2014-2020.

About 1,000 civilians are killed every year by a law enforcement officer in the USA, more than 90% by firearms. Most civilians who are shot are armed with a firearms. Higher rates of officer-involved shootings (OIS) are positively associated with state-level firearm ownership. Laws relaxing restrictions on civilians carrying concealed firearms (CCW) have been associated with increased violent crime. This study examines associations between CCW laws and OIS. We accessed counts of fatal and nonfatal OIS from the Gun Violence Archive (GVA) from 2014-2020 and calculated rates using population estimates. We conducted legal research to identify passage years of CCW laws. We used an augmented synthetic control models with fixed effects to estimate the effect of Permitless CCW law adoption on OIS over fourteen biannual semesters. We calculated an inverse variance weighted average of the overall effect. On average, Permitless CCW adopting states saw a 12.9% increase in the OIS victimization rate or an additional 4 OIS victimizations per year, compared to what would have happened had law adoption not occurred. Lax laws regulating civilian carrying of concealed firearms were associated with higher incidence of OIS. The increase in concealed gun carrying frequency associated with these laws may influence the perceived threat of danger faced by law enforcement. This could contribute to higher rates of OIS.

Using synthetic control methodology to estimate effects of a Cure Violence intervention in Baltimore, Maryland.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the long-term impact of Safe Streets Baltimore, which is based on the Cure Violence outreach and violence interruption model, on firearm violence. METHODS: We used synthetic control methods to estimate programme effects on homicides and incidents of non-fatal penetrating firearm injury (non-fatal shootings) in neighbourhoods that had Safe Streets' sites and model-generated counterfactuals. Synthetic control analyses were conducted for each firearm violence outcome in each of the seven areas where Safe Streets was implemented. The study also investigated variation in programme impact over time by generating effect estimates of varying durations for the longest-running programme sites. RESULTS: Synthetic control models reduced prediction error relative to regression analyses. Estimates of Safe Streets' effects on firearm violence varied across intervention sites: some positive, some negative and no effect. Beneficial programme effects on firearm violence reported in prior research were found to have attenuated over time. CONCLUSIONS: For highly targeted interventions, synthetic control methods may provide more valid estimates of programme impact than panel regression with data from all city neighbourhoods. This research offers new understanding about the effectiveness of the Cure Violence intervention over extended periods of time in seven neighbourhoods. Combined with existing Cure Violence evaluation literature, it also raises questions about contextual and implementation factors that might influence programme outcomes.

Public opinion on gun policy by race and gun ownership status.

We sought to examine support for gun polices by race and ethnicity, and among gun owning subgroups. We combined two waves of the National Survey of Gun Policy (January 2017 and 2019 [N = 3804]). We used chi-square tests to assess whether support for gun policies differed by race or ethnicity overall and among subgroups of gun owners. Most U.S. adults supported 17 of 21 gun-related policies. Among gun owners, Blacks supported six policies at higher levels than whites, including minimum age requirements for gun ownership and assault weapon and ammunition-related restrictions. Hispanic gun owners supported safe storage requirements at higher levels than white gun owners. While support differed by race and ethnicity for some policies, majorities of U.S. adults supported nearly all gun policies examine regardless of race. One notable exception, carrying a concealed gun on K-12 school grounds did not reach majority support among any subgroup. While tailored messaging may be appropriate in certain circumstances, it is important to highlight the similarities in support for evidence-based gun polices across racial and ethnic groups.

Association between gun owner attitudes and their behavior in private firearm sales.

Federal law places no regulations on unlicensed, private firearm sellers. However, a majority of the firearms used in crime come from these unregulated markets. This study aims to characterize the demographics of gun owners who engage in private sales, determine how often these individuals engage in selling behaviors, and ascertain whether sellers' attitudes are associated with their reported behaviors in the private market. A nationally representative web-based survey of 1444 gun owners, fielded in Spring 2016, were asked about their participation in the private market. The 238 respondents who participated in the private market were asked about their behavior on their last sale and the extent to which they felt it was the responsibility of sellers to ensure purchasers were legally able to own a firearm. Less than half of private gun sellers agreed that it is the seller's responsibility to ensure purchasers are eligible to buy guns (46%). Among private sellers, only 44% checked purchasers for eligibility and 32% denied a sale due to concerns about whether the firearm would be used safely. Sellers who agreed it was their responsibility to ensure purchasers were eligible to buy a gun had 4.52 (95% CI:1.78 to 11.5) times greater odds of reporting checking for a permit or conduct a background check on their last sale. it. These findings suggest a need for strategies to increase gun sellers' perceptions of responsibility for ensuring only eligible purchasers purchase guns, potentially including communication campaigns or educational programs.

Effect of Washington State and Colorado's cannabis legalization on death by suicides.

In the U.S., death by suicide is a leading cause of death and was the 2nd leading cause of death for ages 15-to-34 in 2018. Though incomplete, much of the scientific literature has found associations between cannabis use and death by suicide. Several states and the District of Columbia have legalized cannabis for general adult use. We sought to evaluate whether cannabis legalization has impacted suicide rates in Washington State and Colorado, two early adopters. We used a quasi-experimental research design with annual, state-level deaths by suicide to evaluate the legalization of cannabis in Washington State and Colorado. We used synthetic control models to construct policy counterfactuals as our primary method of estimating the effect of legalization, stratified by age, gender, and race/ethnicity. Overall death by suicide rates were not impacted in either state. However, when stratified by age categories, deaths by suicide increased 17.9% among 15-24-year-olds in Washington State, or an additional 2.13 deaths per 100,000 population (p-value ≤0.001). Other age groups did not show similar associations. An ad hoc analysis revealed, when divided into legal and illegal consumption age, 15-20-year olds had an increase in death by suicides of 21.2% (p-value = 0.026) and 21-24-year olds had an increase in death by suicides of 18.6% (p-value ≤0.001) in Washington State. The effect of legalized cannabis on deaths by suicide appears to be heterogeneous. Deaths by suicide among 15-24-year-olds saw significant increases post-implementation in Washington State but not in Colorado.

Development of an online map of safe gun storage sites in Maryland for suicide prevention.

Reducing access to lethal means of self-harm is a cornerstone of suicide prevention, and temporary, voluntary gun storage outside the home is one recommended approach. With the goal of facilitating access to gun storage outside the home in Maryland, we developed an online map of gun shops and law enforcement agencies willing to offer temporary, voluntary gun storage on a case-by-case basis. This project was modelled off of prior work by the Colorado Firearm Safety Coalition. As of July 2020, 32 gun shops and 3 law enforcement agencies agreed to be listed on our map. Others were hesitant to participate due to perceived legal and logistical barriers to temporary firearm storage. We demonstrate the feasibility of creating an online map that lists organisations offering temporary gun storage in Maryland. This brief report details our process, barriers encountered, and future considerations to improve access to offsite gun storage options.

Gun purchasing behaviours during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, March to mid-July 2020.

We sought to characterize gun and ammunition purchasing during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic using a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults. We fielded a survey using NORC's Amerispeak Panel between 7 and 22 July 2020 (survey completion rate = 91.1%, N = 1337). We used survey-weighted data to calculate the proportion of adults who purchased a gun during this time period and types of guns and amount of ammunition purchased. Between March and mid-July 2020, 6% of adults purchased a gun and 9% bought ammunition. Of those purchasing a gun, 34% were first-time purchasers. Among those purchasing ammunition, 19% reported purchasing more than usual in response to the COVID-19 pandemic while 27% purchased less than usual. An estimated 6,451,163 adults bought guns for the first time between March and mid-July 2020. Increases in gun purchasing, particularly among first-time gun owners, could pose significant short- and long-term implications for public health.

Community Effects of Police-Related Deaths: Associations With Low Birthweight Births and Poverty Among US Counties.

Police-related deaths are a public health problem; however, their effects on community-level reproductive health outcomes remain largely unexplored. Among US counties with populations >100,000 (N = 580), we examined the longitudinal association between police-related deaths and rates of low birthweight (LBW) (<2,500 grams) deliveries, with counties stratified by quartiles of poverty. In the two lowest poverty quartiles, two or more police-related deaths were associated with a 5% (incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02, 1.09) and 10% (IRR 1.10, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.15) higher rate of LBW births, respectively. The effect was not significant in the two highest poverty quartiles. No counties are "immune" from the important effects of police-related deaths and therefore the public health importance of police violence is a ubiquitous one regardless of social class or position.

Purchaser Licensing, Point-of-Sale Background Check Laws, and Firearm Homicide and Suicide in 4 US States, 1985-2017.

Objectives. To estimate and compare the effects of state background check policies on firearm-related mortality in 4 US states.Methods. Annual data from 1985 to 2017 were used to examine Maryland and Pennsylvania, which implemented point-of-sale comprehensive background check (CBC) laws for handgun purchasers; Connecticut, which adopted a handgun purchaser licensing law; and Missouri, which repealed a similar law. Using synthetic control methods, we estimated the effects of these laws on homicide and suicide rates stratified by firearm involvement.Results. There was no consistent relationship between CBC laws and mortality rates. There were estimated decreases in firearm homicide (27.8%) and firearm suicide (23.2%-40.5%) rates associated with Connecticut's law. There were estimated increases in firearm homicide (47.3%), nonfirearm homicide (18.1%), and firearm suicide (23.5%) rates associated with Missouri's repeal.Conclusions. Purchaser licensing laws coupled with CBC requirements were consistently associated with lower firearm homicide and suicide rates, but CBC laws alone were not.Public Health Implications. Our results contribute to a body of research showing that CBC laws are not associated with reductions in firearm-related deaths unless they are coupled with handgun purchaser licensing laws.