Broad-scale analysis of fish community data suggests critical need to support regional connectivity of coral reefs.

Connectivity is vital for the biodiversity and functioning of marine ecosystems. It is known to be important for coral reefs, but the scales at which connectivity effects matter-and, correspondingly, the scales at which management responses are needed-are poorly understood in marine systems. We used 23 years of fish monitoring data collected from ~50 different coral reefs by the Australian Institute of Marine Science, together with a range of geographic data layers (including the Allen Coral Atlas) and additional network analysis, to explore the balance of local and regional influence on fish communities. Variance partitioning indicated that 42% of the variance in fish community composition could be explained by regional effects or their interaction with coarse-grained local influences (habitat). The variance explained by regional influences was divided evenly between measures that capture location on environmental gradients (e.g., proximity to coastal shelf, latitude) and cross-scale centrality measures of reef location within a broader reef network. A total of 11% of variance could be directly or indirectly attributed to management. Our results provide clear evidence that management and restoration of reefs across the globe must consider both local and regional influences on reef-associated organisms and highlight the potential benefits of improving connectivity in human-dominated coastal seascapes.

Coral reefs in the Anthropocene.

Coral reefs support immense biodiversity and provide important ecosystem services to many millions of people. Yet reefs are degrading rapidly in response to numerous anthropogenic drivers. In the coming centuries, reefs will run the gauntlet of climate change, and rising temperatures will transform them into new configurations, unlike anything observed previously by humans. Returning reefs to past configurations is no longer an option. Instead, the global challenge is to steer reefs through the Anthropocene era in a way that maintains their biological functions. Successful navigation of this transition will require radical changes in the science, management and governance of coral reefs.

Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals.

During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.

Research priorities for the sustainability of coral-rich western Pacific seascapes.

Nearly a billion people depend on tropical seascapes. The need to ensure sustainable use of these vital areas is recognised, as one of 17 policy commitments made by world leaders, in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 ('Life below Water') of the United Nations. SDG 14 seeks to secure marine sustainability by 2030. In a time of increasing social-ecological unpredictability and risk, scientists and policymakers working towards SDG 14 in the Asia-Pacific region need to know: (1) How are seascapes changing? (2) What can global society do about these changes? and (3) How can science and society together achieve sustainable seascape futures? Through a horizon scan, we identified nine emerging research priorities that clarify potential research contributions to marine sustainability in locations with high coral reef abundance. They include research on seascape geological and biological evolution and adaptation; elucidating drivers and mechanisms of change; understanding how seascape functions and services are produced, and how people depend on them; costs, benefits, and trade-offs to people in changing seascapes; improving seascape technologies and practices; learning to govern and manage seascapes for all; sustainable use, justice, and human well-being; bridging communities and epistemologies for innovative, equitable, and scale-crossing solutions; and informing resilient seascape futures through modelling and synthesis. Researchers can contribute to the sustainability of tropical seascapes by co-developing transdisciplinary understandings of people and ecosystems, emphasising the importance of equity and justice, and improving knowledge of key cross-scale and cross-level processes, feedbacks, and thresholds.

Linking economic growth pathways and environmental sustainability by understanding development as alternate social-ecological regimes.

Scientists understand how global ecological degradation is occurring but not why it seems to be so difficult to reverse. We used national-level data and a mathematical model to provide an empirical test of the hypothesis that national economies display two distinct economic regimes that are maintained by self-reinforcing feedbacks between natural resources and society. Our results not only support previous findings that two distinct groups exist, but also show that countries move toward one of these two different equilibrium points because of their different patterns of natural resource use and responses to population growth. At the less economically developed equilibrium point maintained by "green-loop" feedbacks, human populations depend more directly on ecosystems for income. At the more economically developed equilibrium point maintained by "red-loop" feedbacks, nonecosystem services (e.g., technology, manufacturing, services) generate the majority of national gross domestic product (GDP), but increasing consumption of natural resources means that environmental impacts are higher and are often exported (via cross-scale feedbacks) to other countries. Feedbacks between income and population growth are pushing countries farther from sustainability. Our analysis shows that economic growth alone cannot lead to environmental sustainability and that current trajectories of resource use cannot be sustained without breaking feedback loops in national and international economies.

Implications of agricultural transitions and urbanization for ecosystem services.

Historically, farmers and hunter-gatherers relied directly on ecosystem services, which they both exploited and enjoyed. Urban populations still rely on ecosystems, but prioritize non-ecosystem services (socioeconomic). Population growth and densification increase the scale and change the nature of both ecosystem- and non-ecosystem-service supply and demand, weakening direct feedbacks between ecosystems and societies and potentially pushing social-ecological systems into traps that can lead to collapse. The interacting and mutually reinforcing processes of technological change, population growth and urbanization contribute to over-exploitation of ecosystems through complex feedbacks that have important implications for sustainable resource use.

Cross-scale and social-ecological changes constitute main threats to private land conservation in South Africa.

Conserving biodiversity in the long term will depend in part on the capacity of Protected Areas (PAs) to cope with cross-scale, social-ecological disturbances and changes, which are becoming more frequent in a highly connected world. Direct threats to biodiversity within PAs and their interactions with broader-scale threats are both likely to vary with PA spatial and management characteristics (e.g., location, dependence on ecotourism revenues, governmental support). Private Land Conservation Areas (PLCAs) are interesting case study systems for assessing cross-scale threats to PAs and their determinants. Despite the growing number of PLCAs around the world, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the long-term capacity of these privately owned areas to conserve biodiversity. Their potential impermanence is commonly raised as a key concern. To better understand the threats to which different types of PLCAs are likely to be vulnerable, we asked 112 PLCA landholders in South Africa what they perceived as the top threats to their PLCAs. Landowners identified direct threats to the biodiversity within their PLCAs (e.g., poaching, extreme weather, inappropriate fire regimes, alien species) as well as describing broader socio-economic threats (e.g., regional crime, national legislation and politics, global economic recessions), which were noted to interact across scales. We found support for the hypothesis that patterns in the perceived multi-scale threats to a PLCA correspond with its management and spatial characteristics, including its remoteness, dependence on ecotourism or hunting revenues, and richness of megafaunal species. Understanding the threats to which different PLCAs may be vulnerable is useful for developing more nuanced, targeted strategies to build PLCA resilience to these threats (for example, by strengthening the capacity of self-funded PLCAs to cope with the threat of economic downturns through more innovative financial instruments or diversified revenue streams). Our findings highlight the importance of considering interactions between broad-scale socio-economic changes and direct threats to biodiversity, which can influence the resilience of PAs in ways that are not anticipated by more traditional, discipline-specific consideration of direct threats to the biodiversity within their boundaries.

Traps and transformations influencing the financial viability of tourism on private-land conservation areas.

The ability of private conservation organizations to remain financially viable is a key factor influencing their effectiveness. One-third of financially motivated private-land conservation areas (PLCAs) surveyed in South Africa are unprofitable, raising questions about landowners' abilities to effectively adapt their business models to the socioeconomic environment. In any complex system, options for later adaptation can be constrained by starting conditions (path dependence). We tested 3 hypothesized drivers of path dependence in PLCA ecotourism and hunting business models: (H1) the initial size of a PLCA limits the number of mammalian game and thereby predators that can be sustained; (H2) initial investments in infrastructure limit the ability to introduce predators; and (H3) rainfall limits game and predator abundance. We further assessed how managing for financial stability (optimized game stocking) or ecological sustainability (allowing game to fluctuate with environmental conditions) influenced the ability to overcome path dependence. A mechanistic PLCA model based on simple ecological and financial rules was run for different initial conditions and management strategies, simulating landowner options for adapting their business model annually. Despite attempts by simulated landowners to increase profits, adopted business models after 13 years were differentiated by initial land and infrastructural assets, supporting H1 and H2. A conservation organization's initial assets can cause it to become locked into a financially vulnerable business model. In our 50-year simulation, path dependence was overcome by fewer of the landowners who facilitated natural ecological variability than those who maintained constant hunting rates and predator numbers, but the latter experienced unsustainably high game densities in low rainfall years. Management for natural variability supported long-term ecological sustainability but not shorter term socioeconomic sustainability for PLCAs. Our findings highlight trade-offs between ecological and economic sustainability and suggest a role for governmental support of the private conservation industry.

Host community heterogeneity and the expression of host specificity in avian haemosporidia in the Western Cape, South Africa.

Similar patterns of parasite prevalence in animal communities may be driven by a range of different mechanisms. The influences of host heterogeneity and host-parasite interactions in host community assemblages are poorly understood. We sampled birds at 27 wetlands in South Africa to compare four hypotheses explaining how host community heterogeneity influences host specificity in avian haemosporidia communities: the host-neutral hypothesis, the super-spreader hypothesis, the host specialist hypothesis and the heterogeneity hypothesis. A total of 289 birds (29%) were infected with Plasmodium, Haemoproteus and/or Leucocytozoon lineages. Leucocytozoon was the most diverse and generalist parasite genus, and Plasmodium the most conservative. The host-neutral and host specialist hypotheses received the most support in explaining prevalence by lineage (Leucocytozoon) and genus (Plasmodium and Haemoproteus), respectively. We observed that haemosporidian prevalence was potentially amplified or reduced with variation in host and/or parasitic taxonomic levels of analysis. Our results show that Leucocytozoon host abundance and diversity was influential to parasite prevalence at varying taxonomic levels, particularly within heterogeneous host communities. Furthermore, we note that prevalent mechanisms of infection can potentially act as distinct roots for shaping communities of avian haemosporidia.

Protected areas as social-ecological systems: perspectives from resilience and social-ecological systems theory.

Conservation biology and applied ecology increasingly recognize that natural resource management is both an outcome and a driver of social, economic, and ecological dynamics. Protected areas offer a fundamental approach to conserving ecosystems, but they are also social-ecological systems whose ecological management and sustainability are heavily influenced by people. This editorial, and the papers in the invited feature that it introduces, discuss three emerging themes in social-ecological systems approaches to understanding protected areas: (1) the resilience and sustainability of protected areas, including analyses of their internal dynamics, their effectiveness, and the resilience of the landscapes within which they occur; (2) the relevance of spatial context and scale for protected areas, including such factors as geographic connectivity, context, exchanges between protected areas and their surrounding landscapes, and scale dependency in the provision of ecosystem services; and (3) efforts to reframe what protected areas are and how they both define and are defined by the relationships of people and nature. These emerging themes have the potential to transform management and policy approaches for protected areas and have important implications for conservation, in both theory and practice.

Positives and pathologies of natural resource management on private land-conservation areas.

In managed natural resource systems, such as fisheries and rangelands, there is a recognized trade-off between managing for short-term benefits and managing for longer term resilience. Management actions that stabilize ecological attributes or processes can improve productivity in the supply of ecosystem goods and services in the short term but erode system resilience at longer time scales. For example, fire suppression in rangelands can increase grass biomass initially but ultimately result in an undesirable, shrub-dominated system. Analyses of this phenomenon have focused largely on how management actions influence slow-changing biophysical system attributes (such as vegetation composition). Data on the frequency of management actions that reduce natural ecological variation on 66 private land-conservation areas (PLCAs) in South Africa were used to investigate how management actions are influenced by manager decision-making approaches, a largely ignored part of the problem. The pathology of natural resource management was evident on some PLCAs: increased focus on revenue-generation in decision making resulted in an increased frequency of actions to stabilize short-term variation in large mammal populations, which led to increased revenues from ecotourism or hunting. On many PLCAs, these management actions corresponded with a reduced focus on ecological monitoring and an increase in overstocking of game (i.e., ungulate species) and stocking of extralimitals (i.e., game species outside their historical range). Positives in natural resource management also existed. Some managers monitored slower changing ecological attributes, which resulted in less-intensive management, fewer extralimital species, and lower stocking rates. Our unique, empirical investigation of monitoring-management relationships illustrates that management decisions informed by revenue monitoring versus ecological monitoring can have opposing consequences for natural resource productivity and sustainability. Promoting management actions that maintain resilience in natural resource systems therefore requires cognizance of why managers act the way they do and how these actions can gradually shift managers toward unsustainable strategies.

Scale dependency in effectiveness, isolation, and social-ecological spillover of protected areas.

Protected areas are considered vital for the conservation of biodiversity. Given their central role in many conservation strategies, it is important to know whether they adequately protect biodiversity within their boundaries; whether they are becoming more isolated from other natural areas over time; and whether they play a role in facilitating or reducing land-cover change in their surroundings. We used matching methods and national and local analyses of land-cover change to evaluate the combined effectiveness (i.e., avoided natural-cover loss), isolation (i.e., changes in adjacent areas), and spillover effects (i.e., impacts on adjacent areas) of 19 national parks in South Africa from 2000 to 2009. All parks had either similar or lower rates of natural-cover loss than matched control samples. On a national level, mean net loss of natural cover and mean net gain of cultivation cover decreased with distance from park boundary, but there was considerable variation in trends around individual parks, providing evidence for both increased isolation and buffering of protected areas. Fourteen parks had significant positive spillover and reduced natural-cover loss in their surroundings, whereas five parks experienced elevated levels of natural-cover loss. Conclusions about social-ecological spillover effects from protected areas depended heavily on the measures of land-cover change used and the scale at which the results were aggregated. Our findings emphasize the need for high-resolution data when assessing spatially explicit phenomena such as land-cover change and challenge the usefulness of large-scale (coarse grain, broad extent) studies for understanding social-ecological dynamics around protected areas.

Analysis of large new South African dataset using two host-specificity indices shows generalism in both adult and larval ticks of mammals.

Ticks and tick-borne pathogens can have considerable impacts on the health of livestock, wildlife and people. Knowledge of tick-host preferences is necessary for both tick and pathogen control. Ticks were historically considered as specialist parasites, but the range of sampled host species has been limited, infestation intensity has not been included in prior analyses, and phylogenetic distances between hosts have not been previously considered. We used a large dataset of 35 604 individual collections and two host-specificity indices to assess the specificity of 61 South African tick species, as well as distinctions between adult and juvenile ticks, for 95 mammalian hosts. When accounting for host phylogeny, most adult and juvenile ticks behaved as generalists, with juveniles being significantly more generalist than adults. When we included the intensity of tick infestation, ticks exhibited a wider diversity of specificity in all life stages. Our results show that ticks of mammals in South Africa tend to behave largely as generalists and that adult ticks are more host-specific. More generally, our analysis shows that the incorporation of life-stage differences, infestation intensity and phylogenetic distances between hosts, as well as the use of more than one specificity index, can all contribute to a deeper understanding of host-parasite interactions.

Bridge hosts, a missing link for disease ecology in multi-host systems.

In ecology, the grouping of species into functional groups has played a valuable role in simplifying ecological complexity. In epidemiology, further clarifications of epidemiological functions are needed: while host roles may be defined, they are often used loosely, partly because of a lack of clarity on the relationships between a host's function and its epidemiological role. Here we focus on the definition of bridge hosts and their epidemiological consequences. Bridge hosts provide a link through which pathogens can be transmitted from maintenance host populations or communities to receptive populations that people want to protect (i.e., target hosts). A bridge host should (1) be competent for the pathogen or able to mechanically transmit it; and (2) come into direct contact or share habitat with both maintenance and target populations. Demonstration of bridging requires an operational framework that integrates ecological and epidemiological approaches. We illustrate this framework using the example of the transmission of Avian Influenza Viruses across wild bird/poultry interfaces in Africa and discuss a range of other examples that demonstrate the usefulness of our definition for other multi-host systems. Bridge hosts can be particularly important for understanding and managing infectious disease dynamics in multi-host systems at wildlife/domestic/human interfaces, including emerging infections.

Cross-scale feedbacks and scale mismatches as influences on cultural services and the resilience of protected areas.

Protected areas are a central strategy for achieving global conservation goals, but their continued existence depends heavily on maintaining sufficient social and political support to outweigh economic interests or other motives for land conversion. Thus, the resilience of protected areas can be considered a function of their perceived benefits to society. Nature-based tourism (NBT), a cultural ecosystem service, provides a key source of income to protected areas, facilitating a sustainable solution to conservation. The ability of tourism to generate income depends, however, on both the scales at which this cultural service is provided and the scales at which tourists respond to services on offer. This observation raises a set of location-, context-, and scale-related questions that need to be confronted before we can understand and value cultural service provision appropriately. We combine elements of resilience analysis with a systems ecology framework and apply this to NBT in protected areas to investigate cross-scale interactions and scale mismatches. We postulate that cross-scale effects can either have a positive effect on protected area resilience or lead to scale mismatches, depending on their interactions with cross-scale feedbacks. To demonstrate this, we compare spatial scales and nested levels of institutions to develop a typology of scale mismatches for common scenarios in NBT. In our new typology, the severity of a scale mismatch is expressed as the ratio of spatial scale to institutional level, producing 25 possible outcomes with differing consequences for system resilience. We predict that greater differences between interacting scales and levels, and greater magnitudes of cross-scale interactions, will lead to greater magnitudes of scale mismatch. Achieving a better understanding of feedbacks and mismatches, and finding ways of aligning spatial and institutional scales, will be critical for strengthening the resilience of protected areas that depend on NBT.

Understanding protected area resilience: a multi-scale, social-ecological approach.

Protected areas (PAs) remain central to the conservation of biodiversity. Classical PAs were conceived as areas that would be set aside to maintain a natural state with minimal human influence. However, global environmental change and growing cross-scale anthropogenic influences mean that PAs can no longer be thought of as ecological islands that function independently of the broader social-ecological system in which they are located. For PAs to be resilient (and to contribute to broader social-ecological resilience), they must be able to adapt to changing social and ecological conditions over time in a way that supports the long-term persistence of populations, communities, and ecosystems of conservation concern. We extend Ostrom's social-ecological systems framework to consider the long-term persistence of PAs, as a form of land use embedded in social-ecological systems, with important cross-scale feedbacks. Most notably, we highlight the cross-scale influences and feedbacks on PAs that exist from the local to the global scale, contextualizing PAs within multi-scale social-ecological functional landscapes. Such functional landscapes are integral to understand and manage individual PAs for long-term sustainability. We illustrate our conceptual contribution with three case studies that highlight cross-scale feedbacks and social-ecological interactions in the functioning of PAs and in relation to regional resilience. Our analysis suggests that while ecological, economic, and social processes are often directly relevant to PAs at finer scales, at broader scales, the dominant processes that shape and alter PA resilience are primarily social and economic.

Avian malaria prevalence and mosquito abundance in the Western Cape, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: The close relationship between vector-borne diseases and their environment is well documented, especially for diseases with water-dependent vectors such as avian malaria. Mosquitoes are the primary vectors of avian malaria and also the definitive hosts in the disease life cycle. Factors pertinent to mosquito ecology are likely to be influential to observed infection patterns; such factors include rainfall, season, temperature, and water quality. METHODS: The influence of mosquito abundance and occurrence on the prevalence of Plasmodium spp. in the Ploceidae family (weavers) was examined, taking into account factors with an indirect influence upon mosquito ecology. Mosquitoes and weaver blood samples were simultaneously collected in the Western Cape, South Africa over a two-year period, and patterns of vector abundance and infection prevalence were compared. Dissolved oxygen, pH, temperature and salinity measurements were taken at 20 permanent waterbodies. Rainfall during this period was also quantified using remotely sensed data from up to 6 months prior to sampling months. RESULTS: Sixteen wetlands had weavers infected with avian malaria. More than half of the mosquitoes caught were trapped at one site; when this site was excluded, the number of mosquitoes trapped did not vary significantly between sites. The majority of mosquitoes collected belonged to the predominant vector species group for avian malaria (Culex culex species complex). Seasonal variation occurred in infection and mosquito prevalence, water pH and water temperature, with greater variability observed in summer than in winter. There was a significant correlation of infection prevalence with rainfall two months prior to sampling months. Mosquito prevalence patterns across the landscape also showed a close relationship to patterns of rainfall. Contrary to predictions, a pattern of asynchronous co-variation occurred between mosquito prevalence and infection prevalence. CONCLUSION: Overall, salinity, rainfall, and mosquito prevalence and season were the most influential vector-related factors on infection prevalence. After comparison with related studies, the tentative conclusion drawn was that patterns of asynchronous variation between malaria prevalence and mosquito abundance were concurrent with those reported in lag response patterns.

Host associations, biogeography, and phylogenetics of avian malaria in southern African waterfowl.

The relevance of spatial variation in the environment and host communities for parasite community composition is poorly documented, creating a need for additional case studies from which general principles can be developed. Avian malaria in southern African waterfowl has not previously been studied. As a first step towards documenting and understanding its biogeography, we used PCR and molecular sequencing techniques to analyse 454 blood samples from Afrotropical ducks from 5 different locations (spread around the subregion) for avian malaria. Fifty-five blood samples were positive for one or more genera of haematozoa. The regional infection rate across all sites and sampling periods was 12·1%. Nine individuals carried dual infections containing multiple haematozoa. Fifteen different cytochrome b haplotypes among 52 positives (3 samples failed to sequence) and 61 total sequences were found. Eleven haplotypes closely matched Plasmodium, whereas 4 were more similar to Haemoproteus. Five distinct haematozoan clades were identified. Haemoproteus parasites appeared to be more host-specific than Plasmodium, which occurred at every sampling location and in every host species examined. There were no significant differences in overall parasite prevalence attributable to either site or species, although Plasmodium and Haemoproteus occurrences differed by site-species combination and the borderline significance of our test for between-site variation (P < 0·06) implied that with a larger sample size, differences in parasite prevalence among locations might be detectable.