Prospective external validation of the FluScore risk score for influenza in outpatients.

BACKGROUND: Testing for influenza in patients with acute lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) is common and in some cases is performed for all patients with LRTI. A more selective approach to testing could be more efficient. METHODS: We used data from two prospective studies in the US primary and urgent care settings that enrolled patients with acute LRTI or influenza-like illness. Data were collected in the 2016, 2019, 2021, and 2022 flu seasons. All patients underwent polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing for influenza and the FluScore was calculated based on patient-reported symptoms at their initial visit. The probability of influenza in each risk group was reported, as well as stratum-specific likelihood ratios (SSLRs) for each risk level. RESULTS: The prevalence of influenza within risk groups varied based on overall differences in flu seasons and populations. However, the FluScore exhibited consistent performance across various seasons and populations based on the SSLRs. The FluScore had a consistent SSLR range of 0.20 to 0.23 for the low-risk group, 0.63 to 0.99 for the moderate-risk group, and 1.46 to 1.67 for the high-risk group. The diagnostic odds ratio based on the midpoints of these ranges was 7.25. CONCLUSIONS: The FluScore could streamline patient categorization, identifying patients who could be exempted from testing, while identifying candidates for rapid influenza tests. This has the potential to be more efficient than a "one size fits all" test strategy, as it strategically targets the use of tests on patients most likely to benefit. It is potentially usable in a telehealth setting.

Acute Gastroenteritis Outbreak Among Colorado River Rafters and Backpackers in the Grand Canyon, 2022.

INTRODUCTION: From April 1 to May 31, 2022, Grand Canyon National Park received increased acute gastroenteritis reports. Pooled portable toilet specimens identified norovirus genogroups I and II. We sought to determine outbreak transmission contributors and individual risk factors while rafting or backpacking in the park. METHODS: Grand Canyon rafters and backpackers were surveyed online from June 13-July 8, 2022, and a Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors associated with illness and adjusted for potential confounding factors. RESULTS: Among 762 surveys, 119 cases and 505 well persons submitted complete survey data. Illness among rafters was associated with interaction with ill persons during the trip (adjusted hazard ratio [adjHR] = 3.4 [95%CI 2.3-5.0]) and lack of any hand hygiene (1.2 [0.7-1.9]) or use of only sanitizer or water (1.6 [1.04-2.6]) before snacks. Younger rafters had higher illness rates compared to those ≥60 y (1.5 [1.2-1.8] for ages 40-59 and 2.2 [1.4-3.5] for ages <40 y). CONCLUSIONS: Person-to-person transmission likely accounted for the widespread outbreak. Future outbreak mitigation efforts on river trips could focus on symptom screening before the trip starts, prompt separation of ill and well passengers, strict adherence to hand hygiene with soap and water, minimizing social interactions among rafting groups, and widespread outbreak notices and education to all park users.