Using expert judgments to improve chronic wasting disease risk management in Canada.

ABSTARCT Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a neurodegenerative, protein misfolding disease affecting cervids in North America in epidemic proportions. While the existence of CWD has been known for more than 40 years, risk management efforts to date have not been able to curtail the spread of this condition. An expert elicitation exercise was carried out in May 2011 to obtain the views of international experts on both the etiology of CWD and possible CWD risk management strategies. This study presents the results of the following three components of the elicitation exercise: (1) expert views of the most likely scenarios for the evolution of the CWD among cervid populations in Canada, (2) ranking analyses of the importance of direct and indirect transmission routes, and (3) rating analyses of CWD control measures in farmed and wild cervids. The implications of these findings for the development of CWD risk management strategies are described in a Canadian context.

Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease.

A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the "Classical Model" of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission risk factors for which evidence is lacking. Considered judgments regarding environmental transmission, latency of CWD transmission, management, and species barrier were provided by the experts. Uncertainties for many items were determined to be large, highlighting areas requiring more research. The elicited values may be used as surrogate values until research evidence becomes available.

Expert elicitation for the judgment of prion disease risk uncertainties.

There is a high level of uncertainty surrounding the potential for iatrogenic prion transmission through transplantation, medical instrument reuse, blood transfusion, and blood product use due to a lack of evidence-based research on this important risk issue. A group of specialists was enlisted to evaluate some of the knowledge gaps in this area using the "Classical Model," a structured elicitation procedure for weighting and pooling expert judgment. The elicitation exercise was undertaken in March 2009 with 11 transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) experts who were first calibrated using a series of seed questions for which the answers are known; they were then asked to answer a number of target questions that are important for risk assessment purposes, but for which there remains high uncertainty at this time. The target questions focused on variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) prevalence, incubation times for vCJD, genetic susceptibility to prion disease, blood infectivity, prion reduction of blood and blood products, surgical instrument risks, and interspecies transmission of TSEs. The experts were also asked to perform pairwise risk rankings for 12 different potential routes of infection. Dura mater transplantation was seen as having the highest risk, while dental tissue grafts were viewed as presenting the lowest risk of iatrogenic transmission. The structured elicitation procedure provides a rational, auditable, and repeatable basis for obtaining useful information on prion disease risk issues, for which data are sparse.

Prionet Canada: a network of centres of excellence for research into prions and prion diseases.

PrioNet Canada's strength in basic, applied, and social research is helping to solve the food, health safety, and socioeconomic problems associated with prion diseases. Prion diseases are transmissible, fatal neurodegenerative diseases of humans and animals. Examples of prion diseases include bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, commonly known as "mad cow" disease), Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in humans, and chronic wasting disease (CWD) in deer and elk. As of March 31, 2008, PrioNet's interdisciplinary network included 62 scientific members, 5 international collaborators, and more than 150 students and young professionals working in partnership with 25 different government, nongovernment, and industry partners. PrioNet's activities are developing strategies based on a sustained, rational approach that will mitigate, and ultimately control, prion diseases in Canada.

Determinants of neurological disease: Synthesis of systematic reviews.

Systematic reviews were conducted to identify risk factors associated with the onset and progression of 14 neurological conditions, prioritized as a component of the National Population Health Study of Neurological Conditions. These systematic reviews provided a basis for evaluating the weight of evidence of evidence for risk factors for the onset and progression of the 14 individual neurological conditions considered. A number of risk factors associated with an increased risk of onset for more than one condition, including exposure to pesticides (associated with an increased risk of AD, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, brain tumours, and PD; smoking (AD, MS); and infection (MS, Tourette syndrome). Coffee and tea intake was associated with a decreased risk of onset of both dystonia and PD. Further understanding of the etiology of priority neurological conditions will be helpful in focusing future research initiatives and in the development of interventions to reduce the burden associated with neurological conditions in Canada and internationally.