Fast estimation of regression parameters in a broken-stick model for longitudinal data.

Estimation of change-point locations in the broken-stick model has significant applications in modeling important biological phenomena. In this article we present a computationally economical likelihood-based approach for estimating change-point(s) efficiently in both cross-sectional and longitudinal settings. Our method, based on local smoothing in a shrinking neighborhood of each change-point, is shown via simulations to be computationally more viable than existing methods that rely on search procedures, with dramatic gains in the multiple change-point case. The proposed estimates are shown to have [Formula: see text]-consistency and asymptotic normality - in particular, they are asymptotically efficient in the cross-sectional setting - allowing us to provide meaningful statistical inference. As our primary and motivating (longitudinal) application, we study the Michigan Bone Health and Metabolism Study cohort data to describe patterns of change in log estradiol levels, before and after the final menstrual period, for which a two change-point broken stick model appears to be a good fit. We also illustrate our method on a plant growth data set in the cross-sectional setting.

Acute increase in blood pressure during inhalation of coarse particulate matter air pollution from an urban location.

Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a leading global risk factor for cardiovascular mortality. Although exposure to fine PM <2.5 µm raises arterial blood pressure (BP), few studies have evaluated the impact of coarse PM which differs in size (2.5-10 µm), sources, and chemistry. Twenty-nine healthy adults (30.4 ± 8.2 years) underwent a randomized double-blind crossover study involving 2-hour exposures to concentrated ambient coarse PM (164.2 ± 80.4 µg/m(3)) at an urban location (Dearborn, Michigan) versus filtered air. Cardiovascular outcomes were measured during, immediately, and 2 hours after exposures. Both systolic (1.9 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval: 0.96, 2.8; P < .001) and diastolic (1.9 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 2.7; P < .001) BP levels were higher throughout coarse PM compared with filtered air exposures by mixed-model analyses. Heart rate variability, endothelial function, and arterial compliance were not significantly affected. Brief exposure to coarse PM in an urban environment raises arterial BP. These findings add mechanistic support to the contention that coarse PM may be capable of promoting cardiovascular events.

The characteristics of coarse particulate matter air pollution associated with alterations in blood pressure and heart rate during controlled exposures.

Although fine particulate matter (PM) air pollution <2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) is a leading cause of global morbidity and mortality, the potential health effects of coarse PM (2.5-10 µm in aerodynamic diameter; PM10-2.5) remain less clearly understood. We aimed to elucidate the components within coarse PM most likely responsible for mediating these hemodynamic alterations. Thirty-two healthy adults (25.9 ± 6.6 years) were exposed to concentrated ambient coarse PM (CAP) (76.2 ± 51.5 µg/m(3)) and filtered air (FA) for 2 h in a rural location in a randomized double-blind crossover study. The particle constituents (24 individual elements, organic and elemental carbon) were analyzed from filter samples and associated with the blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) changes occurring throughout CAP and FA exposures in mixed model analyses. Total coarse PM mass along with most of the measured elements were positively associated with similar degrees of elevations in both systolic BP and HR. Conversely, total PM mass was unrelated, whereas only two elements (Cu and Mo) were positively associated with and Zn was inversely related to diastolic BP changes during exposures. Inhalation of coarse PM from a rural location rapidly elevates systolic BP and HR in a concentration-responsive manner, whereas the particulate composition does not appear to be an important determinant of these responses. Conversely, exposure to certain PM elements may be necessary to trigger a concomitant increase in diastolic BP. These findings suggest that particulate mass may be an adequate metric of exposure to predict some, but not all, hemodynamic alterations induced by coarse PM mass.

Particulate matter air pollution and ambient temperature: opposing effects on blood pressure in high-risk cardiac patients.

OBJECTIVE: Fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) and extreme temperatures have both been associated with alterations in blood pressure (BP). However, few studies have evaluated their joint haemodynamic actions among individuals at high risk for cardiovascular events. METHODS: We assessed the effects of short-term exposures during the prior week to ambient PM2.5 and outdoor temperature levels on resting seated BP among 2078 patients enrolling into a cardiac rehabilitation programme at the University of Michigan (from 2003 to 2011) using multiple linear regression analyses adjusting for age, sex, BMI, ozone and the same-day alternate environmental factor (i.e. PM2.5 or temperature). RESULTS: Mean PM2.5 and temperature levels were 12.6 ±â€Š8.2 µg/m and 10.3 ±â€Š10.4°C, respectively. Each standard deviation elevation in PM2.5 concentration during lag days 4-6 was associated with significant increases in SBP (2.1-3.5 mmHg) and DBP (1.7-1.8 mmHg). Conversely, higher temperature levels (per 10.4°C) during lag days 4-6 were associated with reductions in both SBP (-3.6 to -2.3 mmHg) and DBP (-2.5 to -1.8 mmHg). There was little evidence for consistent effect modification by other covariates (e.g. demographics, seasons, medication usage). CONCLUSION: Short-term exposures to PM2.5, even at low concentrations within current air quality standards, are associated with significant increases in BP. Contrarily, higher ambient temperatures prompt the opposite haemodynamic effect. These findings demonstrate that both ubiquitous environmental exposures have clinically meaningful effects on resting BP among high-risk cardiac patients.

Higher fine particulate matter and temperature levels impair exercise capacity in cardiac patients.

OBJECTIVE: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and variations in ambient temperature have been linked to increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, no large-scale study has assessed their effects on directly measured aerobic functional capacity among high-risk patients. METHODS: Using a cross-sectional observational design, we evaluated the effects of ambient PM2.5 and temperature levels over 7 days on cardiopulmonary exercise test results performed among 2078 patients enrolling into a cardiac rehabilitation programme at the University of Michigan (from January 2003 to August 2011) using multiple linear regression analyses (controlling for age, sex, body mass index). RESULTS: Peak exercise oxygen consumption was significantly decreased by approximately 14.9% per 10 µg/m(3) increase in ambient PM2.5 levels (median 10.7 µg/m(3), IQR 10.1 µg/m(3)) (lag days 6-7). Elevations in PM2.5 were also related to decreases in ventilatory threshold (lag days 5-7) and peak heart rate (lag days 2-3) and increases in peak systolic blood pressure (lag days 4-5). A 10°C increase in temperature (median 10.5°C, IQR 17.5°C) was associated with reductions in peak exercise oxygen consumption (20.6-27.3%) and ventilatory threshold (22.9-29.2%) during all 7 lag days. In models including both factors, the outcome associations with PM2.5 were attenuated whereas the effects of temperature remained significant. CONCLUSIONS: Short-term elevations in ambient PM2.5, even at low concentrations within current air quality standards, and/or higher temperatures were associated with detrimental changes in aerobic exercise capacity, which can be linked to a worse quality of life and cardiovascular prognosis among cardiac rehabilitation patients.

Efficacy of Adjuvant 5-Fluorouracil Therapy for Patients with EMAST-Positive Stage II/III Colorectal Cancer.

Elevated Microsatellite Alterations at Selected Tetranucleotide repeats (EMAST) is a genetic signature found in up to 60% of colorectal cancers (CRCs) that is caused by somatic dysfunction of the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) protein hMSH3. We have previously shown in vitro that recognition of 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) within DNA and subsequent cytotoxicity was most effective when both hMutSα (hMSH2-hMSH6 heterodimer) and hMutSß (hMSH2-hMSH3 heterodimer) MMR complexes were present, compared to hMutSα > hMutSß alone. We tested if patients with EMAST CRCs (hMutSß defective) had diminished response to adjuvant 5-FU chemotherapy, paralleling in vitro findings. We analyzed 230 patients with stage II/III sporadic colorectal cancers for which we had 5-FU treatment and survival data. Archival DNA was analyzed for EMAST (>2 of 5 markers mutated among UT5037, D8S321, D9S242, D20S82, D20S85 tetranucleotide loci). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated and multivariate analysis was used to determine contribution to risk. We identified 102 (44%) EMAST cancers. Ninety-four patients (41%) received adjuvant 5-FU chemotherapy, and median follow-up for all patients was 51 months. Patients with EMAST CRCs demonstrated improved survival with adjuvant 5FU to the same extent as patients with non-EMAST CRCs (P<0.05). We observed no difference in survival between patients with stage II/III EMAST and non-EMAST cancers (P = 0.36). There is improved survival for stage II/III CRC patients after adjuvant 5-FU-based chemotherapy regardless of EMAST status. The loss of contribution of hMSH3 for 5-FU cytotoxicity may not adversely affect patient outcome, contrasting patients whose tumors completely lack DNA MMR function (MSI-H).