The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario.

Modern civilization relies on a complex, globally interconnected industrial agriculture system to produce food. Its unprecedented yields hinge on external inputs like machinery, fertilizers, and pesticides, rendering it vulnerable to disruptions in production and international trade. Such a disruption could be caused by large-scale damage to the electrical grid. Solar storms, nuclear detonations in the upper atmosphere, pandemics, or cyber-attacks, could cause this severe damage to electrical infrastructure. To assess the impact of such a global catastrophic infrastructure loss on major food crops (corn, rice, soybean, wheat), we employ a generalized linear model. The predictions show a crop-specific yield reduction between 15% and 37% in phase 1, the year after the catastrophe, assuming rationed use of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel stocks. In phase 2, when all stocks are depleted, yields decrease by 35%-48%. Soybean is less affected in phase 1, while all crops experience strong declines in phase 2. Europe, North and South America, and parts of India, China, and Indonesia face major yield reductions, potentially up to 75%, while most African countries are less affected. These findings underscore the necessity for preparation by highlighting the vulnerability of the food system.

Food production in space from CO2 using microbial electrosynthesis.

The current food method in space is launching prepackaged food which is costly and unsustainable. Alternatives include growing crops and microalgae single cell protein (SCP) using artificial light photosynthesis, which are energy inefficient. Prepackaged food and microalgae food were compared to microbial electrosynthesis of acetic acid (MES-AA). Since the dominant cost of a space mission is the cost of launching mass, components of a system were converted to an equivalent mass, including power, heat rejection, and volume. Three-year roundtrip crewed missions were evaluated for the International Space Station, the Moon, and Mars. The average Equivalent System Mass (ESM) of MES-AA is 1.38x and 2.84x lower than prepackaged food and microalgae SCP, respectively. The expected electricity-to-calorie conversion efficiency of MES-AA is 19.8 %, consuming 3.45 kW to fully feed five astronauts; diets would realistically include multiple foods. MES-AA has a higher energy efficiency than any currently investigated resilient food in space. MES-AA can provide diet diversity at a lower cost than customarily storing prepackaged food or growing crops in space. Producing food while contributing to closed loop life support in space can contribute to reducing global catastrophic risk and is relevant in off-grid communities, like in rural Alaska.

Solar distillation meets the real world: a review of solar stills purifying real wastewater and seawater.

Solar energy-driven evaporation-based freshwater production is one of the sustainable ways to purify contaminated/salty water. Recent advances in solar absorbers' assemblies, design modifications, and integrations with heating sources improved the rate of freshwater productivity. However, the type of feed water affects the evaporation rate in a solar desalination system (SDS). Many studies used tap water with added contaminants to test the performance of a SDS and studied the water quality improvement. As a typical result, pH, total dissolved solids (TDS), and electrical conductivity (µS/cm) are reduced after solar evaporation. The performance of SDSs for real wastewaters are also important to understand, e.g., the reduction of high organic pollutants after solar evaporation. In this aspect, the main objective of the present work is to review solar distillation of real wastewaters and seawater by using SDSs. Further, the mechanism of a solar distiller with heat transfer principles, parameters affecting evaporation process, real wastewaters and seawaters purified in a solar distillation system, improvement of various parameters before and after solar evaporation, pathways of handling wastewaters, challenges, and future perspectives are discussed. Conclusively, SDSs are found to remove pollutants effectively after solar evaporation. The evaporation rate is relatively slower due to high concentration of pollutants that reduce vapor pressure. The COD removal of various real wastewaters, including sludge, kitchen, textile, palm oil, petroleum, water plant, and municipal wastewaters, was 98.13%, 97.85%, 96.84%, 96.71%, 87.99%, 86.99%, and 85.67%, respectively. The reduction rate of salt concentration in real seawater after evaporation in the solar distiller was 99.99%.

Nutrition in Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios: Envisioning Feasible Balanced Diets on Resilient Foods.

Abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (ASRS) following catastrophic events, such as a nuclear war, a large volcanic eruption or an asteroid strike, could prompt global agricultural collapse. There are low-cost foods that could be made available in an ASRS: resilient foods. Nutritionally adequate combinations of these resilient foods are investigated for different stages of a scenario with an effective response, based on existing technology. While macro- and micronutrient requirements were overall met, some-potentially chronic-deficiencies were identified (e.g., vitamins D, E and K). Resilient sources of micronutrients for mitigating these and other potential deficiencies are presented. The results of this analysis suggest that no life-threatening micronutrient deficiencies or excesses would necessarily be present given preparation to deploy resilient foods and an effective response. Careful preparedness and planning-such as stock management and resilient food production ramp-up-is indispensable for an effective response that not only allows for fulfilling people's energy requirements, but also prevents severe malnutrition.

Methane Single Cell Protein: Potential to Secure a Global Protein Supply Against Catastrophic Food Shocks.

Global catastrophes such as a supervolcanic eruption, asteroid impact, or nuclear winter could cause global agricultural collapse due to reduced sunlight reaching the Earth's surface. The human civilization's food production system is unprepared to respond to such events, but methane single cell protein (SCP) could be a key part of the solution. Current preparedness centers around food stockpiling, an excessively expensive solution given that an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario (ASRS) could hamper conventional agriculture for 5-10 years. Instead, it is more cost-effective to consider resilient food production techniques requiring little to no sunlight. This study analyses the potential of SCP produced from methane (natural gas and biogas) as a resilient food source for global catastrophic food shocks from ASRS. The following are quantified: global production potential of methane SCP, capital costs, material and energy requirements, ramp-up rates, and retail prices. In addition, potential bottlenecks for fast deployment are considered. While providing a more valuable, protein-rich product than its alternatives, the production capacity could be slower to ramp up. Based on 24/7 construction of facilities, 7%-11% of the global protein requirements could be fulfilled at the end of the first year. Despite significant remaining uncertainties, methane SCP shows significant potential to prevent global protein starvation during an ASRS at an affordable price-US$3-5/kg dry.

Potential of microbial protein from hydrogen for preventing mass starvation in catastrophic scenarios.

Human civilization's food production system is currently unprepared for catastrophes that would reduce global food production by 10% or more, such as nuclear winter, supervolcanic eruptions or asteroid impacts. Alternative foods that do not require much or any sunlight have been proposed as a more cost-effective solution than increasing food stockpiles, given the long duration of many global catastrophic risks (GCRs) that could hamper conventional agriculture for 5 to 10 years. Microbial food from single cell protein (SCP) produced via hydrogen from both gasification and electrolysis is analyzed in this study as alternative food for the most severe food shock scenario: a sun-blocking catastrophe. Capital costs, resource requirements and ramp up rates are quantified to determine its viability. Potential bottlenecks to fast deployment of the technology are reviewed. The ramp up speed of food production for 24/7 construction of the facilities over 6 years is estimated to be lower than other alternatives (3-10% of the global protein requirements could be fulfilled at end of first year), but the nutritional quality of the microbial protein is higher than for most other alternative foods for catastrophes. Results suggest that investment in SCP ramp up should be limited to the production capacity that is needed to fulfill only the minimum recommended protein requirements of humanity during the catastrophe. Further research is needed into more uncertain concerns such as transferability of labor and equipment production. This could help reduce the negative impact of potential food-related GCRs.

Scaling of greenhouse crop production in low sunlight scenarios.

PURPOSE: During a global catastrophe such as a nuclear winter, in which sunlight and temperatures are reduced across every latitude, to maintain global agricultural output it is necessary to grow some crops under structures. This study designs a method for scaling up crop production in low-tech greenhouses to contribute to global food sustainability during global catastrophic conditions. Constructing low-tech greenhouses would obviate growing crops using more expensive and energy intensive artificial light. METHODS: A nuclear winter climate model is used to determine conditions for which greenhouses would need to compensate. The greenhouse structures are designed to utilize global markets of timber, polymer film, construction aggregates, and steel nails. RESULTS: The limiting market that determines the growth rate of the greenhouses is the rate at which polymer film and sheet are currently extruded. Conditions under low-tech greenhouses in the tropics would feasibly accommodate the production of nearly all crops. Some supplemental lighting would be required for long day crops. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis shows that the added cost of low-tech greenhouses is about two orders of magnitude lower than the added cost of artificial light growth. The retail cost of food from these low-tech greenhouses will be ~2.30 USD/kg dry food higher than current costs; for instance, a 160% retail cost increase for rice. According to the proposed scaling method, the greenhouses will provide 36% of food requirements for everyone by the end of the first year, and feed everyone after 30 months.

Preliminary Automated Determination of Edibility of Alternative Foods: Non-Targeted Screening for Toxins in Red Maple Leaf Concentrate.

Alternative food supplies could maintain humanity despite sun-blocking global catastrophic risks (GCRs) that eliminate conventional agriculture. A promising alternative food is making leaf concentrate. However, the edibility of tree leaves is largely uncertain. To overcome this challenge, this study provides the methods for obtaining rapid toxics screening of common leaf concentrates. The investigation begins with a non-targeted approach using an ultra-high-resolution hybrid ion trap orbitrap mass spectrometer with electrospray ionization (ESI) coupled to an ultra-high pressure two-dimensional liquid chromatograph system on the most common North American leaf: the red maple. Identified chemicals from this non-targeted approach are then cross-referenced with the OpenFoodTox database to identify toxic chemicals. Identified toxins are then screened for formula validation and evaluated for risk as a food. The results after screening show that red maple leaf concentrate contains at least eight toxic chemicals, which upon analysis do not present substantial risks unless consumed in abundance. This indicates that red maple leaf is still a potential alternative food. The results are discussed in the context of expanding the analysis with open science and using leaf extract from other plants that are not traditionally used as foods to offset current global hunger challenges, and move to a more sustainable food system while also preparing for GCRs.

The influence of large-scale wind power on global climate.

Large-scale use of wind power can alter local and global climate by extracting kinetic energy and altering turbulent transport in the atmospheric boundary layer. We report climate-model simulations that address the possible climatic impacts of wind power at regional to global scales by using two general circulation models and several parameterizations of the interaction of wind turbines with the boundary layer. We find that very large amounts of wind power can produce nonnegligible climatic change at continental scales. Although large-scale effects are observed, wind power has a negligible effect on global-mean surface temperature, and it would deliver enormous global benefits by reducing emissions of CO(2) and air pollutants. Our results may enable a comparison between the climate impacts due to wind power and the reduction in climatic impacts achieved by the substitution of wind for fossil fuels.