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BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with the wMel strain of Wolbachia pipientis are less susceptible than wild-type A. aegypti to dengue virus infection. METHODS: We conducted a cluster-randomized trial involving releases of wMel-infected A. aegypti mosquitoes for the control of dengue in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. We randomly assigned 12 geographic clusters to receive deployments of wMel-infected A. aegypti (intervention clusters) and 12 clusters to receive no deployments (control clusters). All clusters practiced local mosquito-control measures as usual. A test-negative design was used to assess the efficacy of the intervention. Patients with acute undifferentiated fever who presented to local primary care clinics and were 3 to 45 years of age were recruited. Laboratory testing was used to identify participants who had virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) and those who were test-negative controls. The primary end point was symptomatic VCD of any severity caused by any dengue virus serotype. RESULTS: After successful introgression of wMel into the intervention clusters, 8144 participants were enrolled; 3721 lived in intervention clusters, and 4423 lived in control clusters. In the intention-to-treat analysis, VCD occurred in 67 of 2905 participants (2.3%) in the intervention clusters and in 318 of 3401 (9.4%) in the control clusters (aggregate odds ratio for VCD, 0.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.15 to 0.35; P = 0.004). The protective efficacy of the intervention was 77.1% (95% CI, 65.3 to 84.9) and was similar against the four dengue virus serotypes. The incidence of hospitalization for VCD was lower among participants who lived in intervention clusters (13 of 2905 participants [0.4%]) than among those who lived in control clusters (102 of 3401 [3.0%]) (protective efficacy, 86.2%; 95% CI, 66.2 to 94.3). CONCLUSIONS: Introgression of wMel into A. aegypti populations was effective in reducing the incidence of symptomatic dengue and resulted in fewer hospitalizations for dengue among the participants. (Funded by the Tahija Foundation and others; AWED ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03055585; Indonesia Registry number, INA-A7OB6TW.).
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Aedes/microbiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Dengue/transmissão , Mosquitos Vetores , Wolbachia , Adolescente , Adulto , Aedes/virologia , Animais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Dengue/diagnóstico , Dengue/epidemiologia , Dengue/prevenção & controle , Vírus da Dengue/isolamento & purificação , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Indonésia/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mosquitos Vetores/microbiologia , Mosquitos Vetores/virologia , Adulto JovemRESUMO
We propose a multi-metric flexible Bayesian framework to support efficient interim decision-making in multi-arm multi-stage phase II clinical trials. Multi-arm multi-stage phase II studies increase the efficiency of drug development, but early decisions regarding the futility or desirability of a given arm carry considerable risk since sample sizes are often low and follow-up periods may be short. Further, since intermediate outcomes based on biomarkers of treatment response are rarely perfect surrogates for the primary outcome and different trial stakeholders may have different levels of risk tolerance, a single hypothesis test is insufficient for comprehensively summarizing the state of the collected evidence. We present a Bayesian framework comprised of multiple metrics based on point estimates, uncertainty, and evidence towards desired thresholds (a Target Product Profile) for (1) ranking of arms and (2) comparison of each arm against an internal control. Using a large public-private partnership targeting novel TB arms as a motivating example, we find via simulation study that our multi-metric framework provides sufficient confidence for decision-making with sample sizes as low as 30 patients per arm, even when intermediate outcomes have only moderate correlation with the primary outcome. Our reframing of trial design and the decision-making procedure has been well-received by research partners and is a practical approach to more efficient assessment of novel therapeutics.
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Projetos de Pesquisa , Humanos , Teorema de Bayes , Tamanho da Amostra , Incerteza , Simulação por ComputadorRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Recent increases in national rates of suicide and fatal overdose have been linked to a deterioration of economic and social stability. The American auto industry experienced comparable pressures beginning in the 1980s with the emergence of a competitive global market. METHODS: Using the United Autoworkers-General Motors (GM) cohort as a case study, we examine the impact of employment loss on these self-injury mortality events. For 29,538 autoworkers employed on or after 1 January 1970, we apply incremental propensity score interventions, a novel causal inference approach, to examine how proportional shifts in the odds of leaving active GM employment affect the cumulative incidence of self-injury mortality. RESULTS: Cumulative incidence of self-injury mortality was 0.87% (255 cases) at the observed odds of leaving active GM employment (δ = 1) over a 45-year period. A 10% decrease in the odds of leaving active GM employment (δ = 0.9) results in an estimated 8% drop in self-injury mortality (234 cases) while a 10% increase (δ = 1.1) results in a 19% increase in self-injury mortality (303 cases). CONCLUSIONS: These results are consistent with the hypothesis that leaving active employment at GM increases the risk of death due to suicide or drug overdose.
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Comportamento Autodestrutivo , Suicídio , Estudos de Coortes , Humanos , Incidência , Indústrias , Estados Unidos/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Intervention trials of vector control methods often require community level randomization with appropriate inferential methods. For many interventions, the possibility of confounding due to the effects of health-care seeking behavior on disease ascertainment remains a concern. The test-negative design, a variant of the case-control method, was introduced to mitigate this issue in the assessment of the efficacy of influenza vaccination (measured at an individual level) on influenza infection. Here, we introduce a cluster-randomized test-negative design that includes randomization of the intervention at a group level. We propose several methods for estimation and inference regarding the relative risk (RR). The inferential methods considered are based on the randomization distribution induced by permuting intervention assignment across two sets of randomly selected clusters. The motivating example is a current study of the efficacy of randomized releases of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes to reduce the incidence of dengue in Yogyakarta City, Indonesia. Estimation and inference techniques are assessed through a simulation study.
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Bioestatística/métodos , Modelos Estatísticos , Distribuição Aleatória , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto/métodos , Aedes/microbiologia , Animais , Dengue/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Mosquitos Vetores , Wolbachia/patogenicidadeRESUMO
In cluster randomized trials (CRTs), the outcome of interest is often a count at the cluster level. This occurs, for example, in evaluating an intervention with the outcome being the number of infections of a disease such as HIV or dengue or the number of hospitalizations in the cluster. Standard practice analyzes these counts through cluster outcome rates using an appropriate denominator (eg, population size). However, such denominators are sometimes unknown, particularly when the counts depend on a passive community surveillance system. We consider direct comparison of the counts without knowledge of denominators, relying on randomization to balance denominators. We also focus on permutation tests to allow for small numbers of randomized clusters. However, such approaches are subject to bias when there is differential ascertainment of counts across arms, a situation that may occur in CRTs that cannot implement blinded interventions. We suggest the use of negative control counts as a method to remove, or reduce, this bias, discussing the key properties necessary for an effective negative control. A current example of such a design is the recent extension of test-negative designs to CRTs testing community-level interventions. Via simulation, we compare the performance of new and standard estimators based on CRTs with negative controls to approaches that only use the original counts. When there is no differential ascertainment by intervention arm, the count-only approaches perform comparably to those using debiasing negative controls. However, under even modest differential ascertainment, the count-only estimators are no longer reliable.
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Projetos de Pesquisa , Viés , Análise por Conglomerados , Simulação por Computador , Humanos , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como AssuntoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Randomized trials for the treatment of tuberculosis (TB) rely on a composite primary outcome to capture unfavorable treatment responses. However, variability between trials in the outcome definition and estimation methods complicates across-trial comparisons and hinders the advancement of treatment guidelines. The International Council for Harmonization (ICH) provides international regulatory standards for clinical trials. The estimand framework outlined in the recent ICH E9(R1) addendum offers a timely opportunity for randomized trials of TB treatment to adopt broadly standardized outcome definitions and analytic approaches. We previously proposed and defined four estimands for use in this context. Our objective was to evaluate how the use of these estimands and choice of estimation method impacts results and interpretation of a large phase III TB trial. METHODS: We reanalyzed participant-level data from the REMoxTB trial. We applied four estimands and various methods of estimation to assess non-inferiority of both novel 4-month treatment regimens against standard of care. RESULTS: With each of the four estimands, we reached the same conclusion as the original trial analysis that the novel regimens were not non-inferior to standard of care. Each estimand and method of estimation gave similar estimates of the treatment effect with fluctuations in variance and differences driven by the methods applied for handling intercurrent events. CONCLUSIONS: Our application of estimands defined by the ICH E9 (R1) addendum offers a formalized framework for addressing the primary TB treatment trial objective and can promote uniformity in future trials by limiting heterogeneity in trial outcome definitions. We demonstrated the utility of our proposal using data from the REMoxTB randomized trial. We outlined methods for estimating each estimand and found consistent conclusions across estimands. We recommend future late-phase TB treatment trials to implement some or all of our estimands to promote rigorous outcome definitions and reduce variability between trials. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00864383. Registered on March 2009.
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Tuberculose , Humanos , Interpretação Estatística de Dados , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Estudos Retrospectivos , Tuberculose/terapiaRESUMO
The intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis of the Applying Wolbachia to Eliminate Dengue (AWED) trial estimated a protective efficacy of 77.1% for participants resident in areas randomised to receive releases of wMel-infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, an emerging dengue preventive intervention. The limiting assumptions of ITT analyses in cluster randomised trials and the mobility of mosquitoes and humans across cluster boundaries indicate the primary analysis is likely to underestimate the full public health benefit. Using spatiotemporally-resolved data on the distribution of Wolbachia mosquitoes and on the mobility of AWED participants (n = 6306), we perform complier-restricted and per-protocol re-examinations of the efficacy of the Wolbachia intervention. Increased intervention efficacy was estimated in all analyses by the refined exposure measures. The complier-restricted analysis returned an estimated efficacy of 80.7% (95% CI 65.9, 89.0) and the per-protocol analysis estimated 82.7% (71.7, 88.4) efficacy when comparing participants with an estimated wMel exposure of ≥ 80% compared to those with <20%. These reanalyses demonstrate how human and mosquito movement can lead to underestimation of intervention effects in trials of vector interventions and indicate that the protective efficacy of Wolbachia is even higher than reported in the primary trial results.
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Aedes , Dengue , Wolbachia , Humanos , Aedes/microbiologia , Animais , Dengue/prevenção & controle , Dengue/transmissão , Mosquitos Vetores/microbiologia , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Análise por Conglomerados , Controle de Mosquitos/métodos , FemininoRESUMO
PURPOSE: Locally advanced, unresectable basal cell carcinoma (LA BCC) can be treated with radiation therapy (RT), but locoregional control (LRC) rates are unsatisfactory. Vismodegib is a hedgehog pathway inhibitor (HPI) active in BCC that may radiosensitize BCC. We evaluated the combination of vismodegib and RT for patients with LA BCC. METHODS: In this multicenter, single-arm, phase II study, patients with unresectable LA BCC received 12 weeks of induction vismodegib, followed by 7 weeks of concurrent vismodegib and RT. The primary end point was LRC rate at 1 year after the end of treatment. Secondary end points included objective response, progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), safety, and patient-reported quality of life (PRQOL). RESULTS: Twenty-four patients received vismodegib; five were unable to complete 12 weeks of induction therapy. LRC was achieved in 91% (95% CI, 68 to 98) of patients at 1 year. The response rate was 63% (95% CI, 38 to 84) after induction vismodegib and 83% (95% CI, 59 to 96) after concurrent vismodegib and RT. With a median follow-up of 5.7 years, 1-year PFS and OS rates were 100% and 96%, and at 5 years PFS and OS rates were 78% and 83%, respectively. Distant metastasis or BCC-related death has not been observed. The most frequent treatment-related adverse events (AEs) were dysgeusia, fatigue, and myalgias occurring in 83%, 75%, and 75% of patients. No grade 4 to 5 treatment-related AEs occurred. PRQOL demonstrated clinically meaningful improvements in all subscales, with emotions and functioning improvements persisting for a year after the end of treatment. CONCLUSION: In patients with unresectable LA BCC, the combination of vismodegib and RT yielded high rates of LRC and PFS and durable improvements in PRQOL.
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Anilidas , Carcinoma Basocelular , Piridinas , Neoplasias Cutâneas , Humanos , Anilidas/uso terapêutico , Anilidas/efeitos adversos , Anilidas/administração & dosagem , Piridinas/uso terapêutico , Piridinas/efeitos adversos , Piridinas/administração & dosagem , Carcinoma Basocelular/patologia , Carcinoma Basocelular/tratamento farmacológico , Feminino , Masculino , Idoso , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neoplasias Cutâneas/patologia , Neoplasias Cutâneas/tratamento farmacológico , Neoplasias Cutâneas/radioterapia , Neoplasias Cutâneas/mortalidade , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Qualidade de Vida , Adulto , Quimiorradioterapia/efeitos adversos , Intervalo Livre de ProgressãoRESUMO
The BACTEC Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube (MGIT) machine is the standard globally for detecting viable mycobacteria in patients' sputum. Samples are observed for no longer than 42 days, at which point the sample is declared "negative" for tuberculosis (TB). This time to detection of bacterial growth, referred to as time-to-positivity (TTP), is increasingly of interest not solely as a diagnostic tool, but as a continuous biomarker wherein change in TTP over time can be used for comparing the bactericidal activity of different TB treatments. However, as a continuous measure, there are oddities in the distribution of TTP values observed, particularly at higher values. We explored whether there is evidence to suggest setting an upper limit of quantification (ULOQM) lower than the diagnostic limit of detection (LOD) using data from several TB-PACTS randomized clinical trials and PanACEA MAMS-TB. Across all trials, less than 7.1% of all weekly samples returned TTP measurements between 25 and 42 days. Further, the relative absolute prediction error (%) was highest in this range. When modeling with ULOQMs of 25 and 30 days, the precision in estimation improved for 23 of 25 regimen-level slopes as compared to models using the diagnostic LOD while also improving the discrimination between regimens based on Bayesian posteriors. While TTP measurements between 25 days and the diagnostic LOD may be important for diagnostic purposes, TTP values in this range may not contribute meaningfully to its use as a quantitative measure, particularly when assessing treatment response, and may lead to under-powered clinical trials.
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Background: Randomized trials for the treatment of tuberculosis (TB) rely on a composite primary outcome to capture unfavorable treatment responses. However, variability between trials in the outcome definition and estimation methods complicates across-trial comparisons and hinders the advancement of treatment guidelines. The International Council for Harmonization (ICH) provides international regulatory standards for clinical trials. The estimand framework outlined in the recent ICH E9(R1) addendum offers a timely opportunity for randomized trials of TB treatment to adopt broadly standardized outcome definitions and analytic approaches. We previously proposed and defined four estimands for use in this context. Our objective was to evaluate how the use of these estimands and choice of estimation method impacts results and interpretation of a large phase III TB trial. Methods: We reanalyzed participant level data from the REMoxTB trial. We applied four estimands and various methods of estimation to assess non-inferiority of both novel 4-month treatment regimens against standard of care. Results: With each of the four estimands we reached the same conclusion as the original trial analysis; that the novel regimens were not non-inferior to standard of care. Each estimand and method of estimation gave similar estimates of the treatment effect with fluctuations in variance and differences driven by the methods applied for handling intercurrent events. Conclusions: Our application of estimands defined by the ICH E9(R1) addendum offers a formalized framework for addressing the primary TB treatment trial objective and can promote uniformity in future trials by limiting heterogeneity in trial outcome definitions. We demonstrated the utility of our proposal using data from the REMoxTB randomized trial. We outlined methods for estimating each estimand and found consistent conclusions across estimands. We recommend future late-phase TB treatment trials to implement some or all of our estimands to promote rigorous outcome definitions and reduce variability between trials.Trial registration: NCT00864383.
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RATIONALE: John Henryism and Superwoman Schema (SWS) are dispositional characteristics adopted to overcome the challenges of chronic psychosocial stress, and have particular salience for African American women. Both show protective and harmful effects on health and share conceptual similarities and distinctions, yet there is no empirical evidence of the potential overlap resulting in uncertainty about the unique roles they may each play concerning the health of African American women. OBJECTIVE: We examined: 1) whether and to what extent John Henryism and SWS represent similar or distinct constructs relevant to the unique sociohistorical and sociopolitical position of African American women, and 2) whether the two differentially predict health outcomes. METHODS: Data are from a purposive and socioeconomically diverse sample of 208 African American women in the San Francisco Bay Area. First, we conducted a progressive series of tests to systematically examine the conceptual and empirical overlap between John Henryism and SWS: correlation analysis, exploratory factor analysis (EFA), principal component analysis and k-modes cluster analysis. Next, we used multivariable regression to examine associations with psychological distress and hypertension. RESULTS: John Henryism and SWS were moderately correlated with one another (rs = 0.30-0.48). In both EFA and cluster analyses, John Henryism items were distinct from SWS subscale items. For SWS, feeling an obligation to present an image of strength and an obligation to help others predicted higher odds of hypertension (p < 0.05); having an intense motivation to succeed predicted lower odds (p = 0.048). John Henryism did not predict hypertension. Feeling an obligation to help others and an obligation to suppress emotions predicted lower levels of psychological distress (p < 0.05) whereas John Henryism predicted higher distress (p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: We discuss the implications of these findings for the measurement of culturally specific phenomena and their role in contributing to the unequal burden of ill health among African American women.
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Hipertensão , Racismo , Humanos , Feminino , Negro ou Afro-Americano , Adaptação Psicológica , Hipertensão/psicologia , PersonalidadeRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Releases of Wolbachia (wMel)-infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes significantly reduced the incidence of virologically confirmed dengue in a previous cluster randomised trial in Yogyakarta City, Indonesia. Following the trial, wMel releases were extended to the untreated control areas, to achieve city-wide coverage of Wolbachia. OBJECTIVE: In this predefined analysis, we evaluated the impact of the wMel deployments in Yogyakarta on dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) case notifications and on the frequency of perifocal insecticide spraying by public health teams. METHODS: Monthly counts of DHF cases notified to the Yogyakarta District Health Office between January 2006 and May 2022 were modelled as a function of time-varying local wMel treatment status (fully- and partially-treated vs untreated, and by quintile of wMel prevalence). The frequency of insecticide fogging in wMel-treated and untreated areas was analysed using negative binomial regression. RESULTS: Notified DHF incidence was 83% lower in fully treated vs untreated periods (IRR 0.17 [95% CI 0.14, 0.20]), and 78% lower in areas with 80-100% wMel prevalence compared to areas with 0-20% wMel (IRR 0.23 [0.17, 0.30]). A similar intervention effect was observed at 60-80% wMel prevalence as at 80-100% prevalence (76% vs 78% efficacy, respectively). Pre-intervention, insecticide fogging occurred at similar frequencies in areas later randomised to wMel-treated and untreated arms of the trial. After wMel deployment, fogging occurred significantly less frequently in treated areas (IRR 0.17 [0.10, 0.30]). CONCLUSIONS: Deployments of wMel-infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes resulted in an 83% reduction in the application of perifocal insecticide spraying, consistent with lower dengue case notifications in wMel-treated areas. These results show that the Wolbachia intervention effect demonstrated previously in a cluster randomised trial was also measurable from routine surveillance data.
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Aedes , Vírus da Dengue , Dengue , Inseticidas , Wolbachia , Animais , Humanos , Dengue/epidemiologia , Dengue/prevenção & controleRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The introduction of Wolbachia (wMel strain) into Aedes aegypti mosquitoes reduces their capacity to transmit dengue and other arboviruses. Randomised and non-randomised studies in multiple countries have shown significant reductions in dengue incidence following field releases of wMel-infected Ae. aegypti. We report the public health outcomes from phased, large-scale releases of wMel-Ae. aegypti mosquitoes throughout three contiguous cities in the Aburrá Valley, Colombia. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Following pilot releases in 2015-2016, staged city-wide wMel-Ae. aegypti deployments were undertaken in the cities of Bello, Medellín and Itagüí (3.3 million people) between October 2016 and April 2022. The impact of the Wolbachia intervention on dengue incidence was evaluated in two parallel studies. A quasi-experimental study using interrupted time series analysis showed notified dengue case incidence was reduced by 95% in Bello and Medellín and 97% in Itagüí, following establishment of wMel at ≥60% prevalence, compared to the pre-intervention period and after adjusting for seasonal trends. A concurrent clinic-based case-control study with a test-negative design was unable to attain the target sample size of 63 enrolled virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD) cases between May 2019 and December 2021, consistent with low dengue incidence throughout the Aburrá Valley following wMel deployments. Nevertheless, VCD incidence was 45% lower (OR 0.55 [95% CI 0.25, 1.17]) and combined VCD/presumptive dengue incidence was 47% lower (OR 0.53 [95% CI 0.30, 0.93]) among participants resident in wMel-treated versus untreated neighbourhoods. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Stable introduction of wMel into local Ae. aegypti populations was associated with a significant and sustained reduction in dengue incidence across three Colombian cities. These results from the largest contiguous Wolbachia releases to-date demonstrate the real-world effectiveness of the method across large urban populations and, alongside previously published results, support the reproducibility of this effectiveness across different ecological settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03631719.
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Aedes , Vírus da Dengue , Dengue , Wolbachia , Animais , Humanos , Colômbia/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , Incidência , Análise de Séries Temporais Interrompida , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Controle Biológico de Vetores/métodos , Dengue/epidemiologia , Dengue/prevenção & controle , Mosquitos VetoresRESUMO
Dengue exhibits focal clustering in households and neighborhoods, driven by local mosquito population dynamics, human population immunity, and fine scale human and mosquito movement. We tested the hypothesis that spatiotemporal clustering of homotypic dengue cases is disrupted by introduction of the arbovirus-blocking bacterium Wolbachia (wMel-strain) into the Aedes aegypti mosquito population. We analysed 318 serotyped and geolocated dengue cases (and 5921 test-negative controls) from a randomized controlled trial in Yogyakarta, Indonesia of wMel deployments. We find evidence of spatial clustering up to 300 m among the 265 dengue cases (3083 controls) in the untreated trial arm. Participant pairs enrolled within 30 days and 50 m had a 4.7-fold increase (compared to 95% CI on permutation-based null distribution: 0.1, 1.2) in the odds of being homotypic (i.e. potentially transmission-related) as compared to pairs occurring at any distance. In contrast, we find no evidence of spatiotemporal clustering among the 53 dengue cases (2838 controls) resident in the wMel-treated arm. Introgression of wMel Wolbachia into Aedes aegypti mosquito populations interrupts focal dengue virus transmission leading to reduced case incidence; the true intervention effect may be greater than the 77% efficacy measured in the primary analysis of the Yogyakarta trial.
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Aedes , Vírus da Dengue , Dengue , Wolbachia , Animais , Análise por Conglomerados , Vírus da Dengue/genética , Humanos , Indonésia/epidemiologia , Controle Biológico de Vetores , Wolbachia/genéticaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The introduction of the bacterium Wolbachia (wMel strain) into Aedes aegypti mosquitoes reduces their capacity to transmit dengue and other arboviruses. Evidence of a reduction in dengue case incidence following field releases of wMel-infected Ae. aegypti has been reported previously from a cluster randomised controlled trial in Indonesia, and quasi-experimental studies in Indonesia and northern Australia. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Following pilot releases in 2015-2016 and a period of intensive community engagement, deployments of adult wMel-infected Ae. aegypti mosquitoes were conducted in Niterói, Brazil during 2017-2019. Deployments were phased across four release zones, with a total area of 83 km2 and a residential population of approximately 373,000. A quasi-experimental design was used to evaluate the effectiveness of wMel deployments in reducing dengue, chikungunya and Zika incidence. An untreated control zone was pre-defined, which was comparable to the intervention area in historical dengue trends. The wMel intervention effect was estimated by controlled interrupted time series analysis of monthly dengue, chikungunya and Zika case notifications to the public health surveillance system before, during and after releases, from release zones and the control zone. Three years after commencement of releases, wMel introgression into local Ae. aegypti populations was heterogeneous throughout Niterói, reaching a high prevalence (>80%) in the earliest release zone, and more moderate levels (prevalence 40-70%) elsewhere. Despite this spatial heterogeneity in entomological outcomes, the wMel intervention was associated with a 69% reduction in dengue incidence (95% confidence interval 54%, 79%), a 56% reduction in chikungunya incidence (95%CI 16%, 77%) and a 37% reduction in Zika incidence (95%CI 1%, 60%), in the aggregate release area compared with the pre-defined control area. This significant intervention effect on dengue was replicated across all four release zones, and in three of four zones for chikungunya, though not in individual release zones for Zika. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We demonstrate that wMel Wolbachia can be successfully introgressed into Ae. aegypti populations in a large and complex urban setting, and that a significant public health benefit from reduced incidence of Aedes-borne disease accrues even where the prevalence of wMel in local mosquito populations is moderate and spatially heterogeneous. These findings are consistent with the results of randomised and non-randomised field trials in Indonesia and northern Australia, and are supportive of the Wolbachia biocontrol method as a multivalent intervention against dengue, chikungunya and Zika.
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Aedes/microbiologia , Aedes/virologia , Febre de Chikungunya/transmissão , Dengue/transmissão , Controle de Mosquitos/métodos , Wolbachia/fisiologia , Infecção por Zika virus/transmissão , Aedes/fisiologia , Animais , Brasil/epidemiologia , Febre de Chikungunya/epidemiologia , Febre de Chikungunya/virologia , Vírus Chikungunya/fisiologia , Dengue/epidemiologia , Dengue/virologia , Vírus da Dengue/fisiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Mosquitos Vetores/microbiologia , Mosquitos Vetores/fisiologia , Mosquitos Vetores/virologia , Zika virus/fisiologia , Infecção por Zika virus/epidemiologia , Infecção por Zika virus/virologiaRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of insulin-like growth factor 1 receptor variant rs2016347 on the risk for breast and nonbreast cancers and cardiovascular disease in women with a history of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP). PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included all parous women in the UK Biobank with prior rs2016347 genotyping (N=204,155), with enrollment taking place from March 2006 to July 2010. History of HDP was self-reported, and outcomes included breast and all nonbreast cancers, hospital diagnoses of hypertension and cardiovascular disease, and direct blood pressure measurements. RESULTS: Women with previous HDP had a higher risk for future hypertension and cardiovascular diagnoses, increased blood pressures, and lower risk for breast cancer compared with women without HDP, consistent with prior studies. Hazard ratios for all nonbreast cancers were unchanged. However, when taking genotype into account, HDP-positive women carrying at least 1 thymine (T) allele of rs2016347 had a lower risk for nonbreast cancer (hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.92; P=.02) and lower systolic blood pressure (-2.08±0.98 mm Hg; P=.03) compared with women with the guanine/guanine (GG) genotype with positive evidence of interaction (HDP:T allele) for both outcomes; P=.04 and P=.03, respectively. CONCLUSION: Women who experience HDP and carry a T allele of rs2016347 have 41% lower risk for developing nonbreast cancer and a lower systolic blood pressure of 2.08 mm Hg when compared with those with the GG genotype, suggesting a possible role of the insulin-like growth factor 1 axis for both cardiovascular and cancer risk in women with HDP.
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Hipertensão Induzida pela Gravidez , Neoplasias , Complicações Cardiovasculares na Gravidez , Receptor IGF Tipo 1/genética , Adulto , Determinação da Pressão Arterial/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Fatores de Risco de Doenças Cardíacas , Humanos , Hipertensão Induzida pela Gravidez/diagnóstico , Hipertensão Induzida pela Gravidez/epidemiologia , Hipertensão Induzida pela Gravidez/genética , Neoplasias/diagnóstico , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Neoplasias/genética , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Gravidez , Complicações Cardiovasculares na Gravidez/diagnóstico , Complicações Cardiovasculares na Gravidez/epidemiologia , Complicações Cardiovasculares na Gravidez/genética , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco/métodos , Reino Unido/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: In recent decades, suicide and fatal overdose rates have increased in the US, particularly for working-age adults with no college education. The coincident decline in manufacturing has limited stable employment options for this population. Erosion of the Michigan automobile industry provides a striking case study. METHODS: We used individual-level data from a retrospective cohort study of 26 804 autoworkers in the United Autoworkers-General Motors cohort, using employment records from 1970 to 1994 and mortality follow-up from 1970 to 2015. We estimated HRs for suicide or fatal overdose in relation to leaving work, measured as active or inactive employment status and age at worker exit. RESULTS: There were 257 deaths due to either suicide (n=202) or overdose (n=55); all but 21 events occurred after leaving work. The hazard rate for suicide was 16.1 times higher for inactive versus active workers (95% CI 9.8 to 26.5). HRs for suicide were elevated for all younger age groups relative to those leaving work after age 55. Those 30-39 years old at exit had the highest HR for suicide, 1.9 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.0). When overdose was included, the rate increased by twofold for both 19- to 29-year-olds and 30- to 39-year-olds at exit. Risks remained elevated when follow-up was restricted to 5 years after exit. CONCLUSIONS: Autoworkers who left work had a higher risk of suicide or overdose than active employees. Those who left before retirement age had higher rates than those who left after, suggesting that leaving work early may increase the risk.
Assuntos
Overdose de Drogas , Emprego , Suicídio , Adulto , Automóveis , Overdose de Drogas/epidemiologia , Humanos , Masculino , Indústria Manufatureira , Michigan , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Aposentadoria , Estudos Retrospectivos , Suicídio/estatística & dados numéricosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The AWED (Applying Wolbachia to Eliminate Dengue) trial is a parallel, two-arm, non-blinded cluster randomised controlled trial that is under way in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, with the aim of measuring the efficacy of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti deployments in reducing dengue incidence in an endemic setting. Enrolment began in January 2018 and is ongoing. The original study protocol was published in April 2018. Here, we describe amendments that have been made to the study protocol since commencement of the trial. METHODS: The key protocol amendments are (1) a revised study duration with planned end of participant enrolment in August 2020, (2) the addition of new secondary objectives (i) to estimate serotype-specific efficacy of the Wolbachia intervention and (ii) to compare Ae. aegypti abundance in intervention versus untreated clusters, (3) an additional exposure classification for the per-protocol analysis where the Wolbachia exposure index is calculated using only the cluster-level Wolbachia prevalence in the participant's cluster of residence, (4) power re-estimation using a multinomial sampling method that better accounts for randomness in sampling, and (5) the addition of two trial stopping rules to address the potential for persistently low rates of virologically confirmed dengue case enrolment and Wolbachia contamination into untreated clusters. Additional minor changes to the protocol are also described. DISCUSSION: The findings from this study will provide the first experimental evidence for the efficacy of Wolbachia in reducing dengue incidence. Enrolment in the trial will conclude this year (2020) and results will be reported shortly thereafter. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT03055585. Registered on 14 February 2017. Last updated 22 March 2020.
Assuntos
Aedes/microbiologia , Vírus da Dengue/patogenicidade , Dengue/prevenção & controle , Mosquitos Vetores/microbiologia , Wolbachia/fisiologia , Animais , Dengue/epidemiologia , Dengue/transmissão , Dengue/virologia , Humanos , Incidência , Indonésia/epidemiologia , Controle Biológico de Vetores/métodos , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
Background: Ae. aegypti mosquitoes stably transfected with the intracellular bacterium Wolbachia pipientis ( wMel strain) have been deployed for biocontrol of dengue and related arboviral diseases in multiple countries. Field releases in northern Australia have previously demonstrated near elimination of local dengue transmission from Wolbachia-treated communities, and pilot studies in Indonesia have demonstrated the feasibility and acceptability of the method. We conducted a quasi-experimental trial to evaluate the impact of scaled Wolbachia releases on dengue incidence in an endemic setting in Indonesia. Methods: In Yogyakarta City, Indonesia, following extensive community engagement, wMel Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes were released every two weeks for 13-15 rounds over seven months in 2016-17, in a contiguous 5 km 2 area (population 65,000). A 3 km 2 area (population 34,000) on the opposite side of the city was selected a priori as an untreated control area. Passive surveillance data on notified hospitalised dengue patients was used to evaluate the epidemiological impact of Wolbachia deployments, using controlled interrupted time-series analysis. Results: Rapid and sustained introgression of wMel Wolbachia into local Ae. aegypti populations was achieved. Thirty-four dengue cases were notified from the intervention area and 53 from the control area (incidence 26 vs 79 per 100,000 person-years) during 24 months following Wolbachia deployment. This corresponded in the regression model to a 73% reduction in dengue incidence (95% confidence interval 49%,86%) associated with the Wolbachia intervention. Exploratory analysis including 6 months additional post-intervention observations showed a small strengthening of this effect (30 vs 115 per 100,000 person-years; 76% reduction in incidence, 95%CI 60%,86%). Conclusions: We demonstrate a significant reduction in dengue incidence following successful introgression of Wolbachia into local Ae. aegypti populations in an endemic setting in Indonesia. These findings are consistent with previous field trials in northern Australia, and support the effectiveness of this novel approach for dengue control.