Mixed-Effects Modeling Framework for Amsterdam and Copenhagen for Outdoor NO2 Concentrations Using Measurements Sampled with Google Street View Cars.

High-resolution air quality (AQ) maps based on street-by-street measurements have become possible through large-scale mobile measurement campaigns. Such campaigns have produced data-only maps and have been used to produce empirical models [i.e., land use regression (LUR) models]. Assuming that all road segments are measured, we developed a mixed model framework that predicts concentrations by an LUR model, while allowing road segments to deviate from the LUR prediction based on between-segment variation as a random effect. We used Google Street View cars, equipped with high-quality AQ instruments, and measured the concentration of NO2 on every street in Amsterdam (n = 46.664) and Copenhagen (n = 28.499) on average seven times over the course of 9 and 16 months, respectively. We compared the data-only mapping, LUR, and mixed model estimates with measurements from passive samplers (n = 82) and predictions from dispersion models in the same time window as mobile monitoring. In Amsterdam, mixed model estimates correlated rs (Spearman correlation) = 0.85 with external measurements, whereas the data-only approach and LUR model estimates correlated rs = 0.74 and 0.75, respectively. Mixed model estimates also correlated higher rs = 0.65 with the deterministic model predictions compared to the data-only (rs = 0.50) and LUR model (rs = 0.61). In Copenhagen, mixed model estimates correlated rs = 0.51 with external model predictions compared to rs = 0.45 and rs = 0.50 for data-only and LUR model, respectively. Correlation increased for 97 locations (rs = 0.65) with more detailed traffic information. This means that the mixed model approach is able to combine the strength of data-only mapping (to show hyperlocal variation) and LUR models by shrinking uncertain concentrations toward the model output.

Effects of long-term exposure to air pollution on natural-cause mortality: an analysis of 22 European cohorts within the multicentre ESCAPE project.

BACKGROUND: Few studies on long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality have been reported from Europe. Within the multicentre European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE), we aimed to investigate the association between natural-cause mortality and long-term exposure to several air pollutants. METHODS: We used data from 22 European cohort studies, which created a total study population of 367,251 participants. All cohorts were general population samples, although some were restricted to one sex only. With a strictly standardised protocol, we assessed residential exposure to air pollutants as annual average concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with diameters of less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5), less than 10 µm (PM10), and between 10 µm and 2.5 µm (PMcoarse), PM2.5 absorbance, and annual average concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx), with land use regression models. We also investigated two traffic intensity variables-traffic intensity on the nearest road (vehicles per day) and total traffic load on all major roads within a 100 m buffer. We did cohort-specific statistical analyses using confounder models with increasing adjustment for confounder variables, and Cox proportional hazards models with a common protocol. We obtained pooled effect estimates through a random-effects meta-analysis. FINDINGS: The total study population consisted of 367,251 participants who contributed 5,118,039 person-years at risk (average follow-up 13.9 years), of whom 29,076 died from a natural cause during follow-up. A significantly increased hazard ratio (HR) for PM2.5 of 1.07 (95% CI 1.02-1.13) per 5 µg/m(3) was recorded. No heterogeneity was noted between individual cohort effect estimates (I(2) p value=0.95). HRs for PM2.5 remained significantly raised even when we included only participants exposed to pollutant concentrations lower than the European annual mean limit value of 25 µg/m(3) (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.12) or below 20 µg/m(3) (1.07, 1.01-1.13). INTERPRETATION: Long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution was associated with natural-cause mortality, even within concentration ranges well below the present European annual mean limit value. FUNDING: European Community's Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2011).

Air pollution and lung cancer incidence in 17 European cohorts: prospective analyses from the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE).

BACKGROUND: Ambient air pollution is suspected to cause lung cancer. We aimed to assess the association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and lung cancer incidence in European populations. METHODS: This prospective analysis of data obtained by the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects used data from 17 cohort studies based in nine European countries. Baseline addresses were geocoded and we assessed air pollution by land-use regression models for particulate matter (PM) with diameter of less than 10 µm (PM10), less than 2·5 µm (PM2·5), and between 2·5 and 10 µm (PMcoarse), soot (PM2·5absorbance), nitrogen oxides, and two traffic indicators. We used Cox regression models with adjustment for potential confounders for cohort-specific analyses and random effects models for meta-analyses. FINDINGS: The 312 944 cohort members contributed 4 013 131 person-years at risk. During follow-up (mean 12·8 years), 2095 incident lung cancer cases were diagnosed. The meta-analyses showed a statistically significant association between risk for lung cancer and PM10 (hazard ratio [HR] 1·22 [95% CI 1·03-1·45] per 10 µg/m(3)). For PM2·5 the HR was 1·18 (0·96-1·46) per 5 µg/m(3). The same increments of PM10 and PM2·5 were associated with HRs for adenocarcinomas of the lung of 1·51 (1·10-2·08) and 1·55 (1·05-2·29), respectively. An increase in road traffic of 4000 vehicle-km per day within 100 m of the residence was associated with an HR for lung cancer of 1·09 (0·99-1·21). The results showed no association between lung cancer and nitrogen oxides concentration (HR 1·01 [0·95-1·07] per 20 µg/m(3)) or traffic intensity on the nearest street (HR 1·00 [0·97-1·04] per 5000 vehicles per day). INTERPRETATION: Particulate matter air pollution contributes to lung cancer incidence in Europe. FUNDING: European Community's Seventh Framework Programme.

Estimation of the effect on air quality of retrofitting SCRT on urban buses in Copenhagen.

This study estimates the effect on air quality of retrofitting SCRT on about 300 urban buses in Copenhagen from September 2015 to March 2016. The retrofitted buses were of Euro III, Euro IV and EEV emission standards. The specific SCRT technology applies ammonia as injected into the exhaust as a gas as opposed to normally as a liquid (urea). This technology is more efficient in reducing NOx emissions, especially under urban driving conditions with relatively low exhaust temperatures. The estimation of the effect is based on air quality model calculations for 98 selected busy streets in Copenhagen for 2015 based on, among others, information from the Zealand public transport agency about buses with and without retrofitted SCRT. More detailed analyses were conducted for two of the streets where fixed air quality measuring stations are located in Copenhagen. Furthermore, a before-after analysis of the development of measured concentrations at fixed measuring stations was carried out to isolate the effect of the retrofitted SCRT. The model calculations showed substantial reductions in emissions of NOx and exhaust particles from each bus (90%) but low reductions in concentrations of NO2, PM2.5 and PM10, respectively 3% for 98 streets on average for NO2, and 0.1%[0.2%] for PM2.5 and 0.07%[0.1%] for PM10 for H.C. Andersen Boulevard and [Jagtvej]. Based on the analysis of trends in the measurements it was not possible to isolate an effect of SCRT on urban buses in Copenhagen probably due to the large variations in meteorology affecting the variations in concentrations.

Coarse and fine particles but not ultrafine particles in urban air trigger hospital admission for asthma in children.

BACKGROUND: Short-term exposure to air pollution can trigger hospital admissions for asthma in children, but it is not known which components of air pollution are most important. There are no available studies on the particular effect of ultrafine particles (UFPs) on paediatric admissions for asthma. AIM: To study whether short-term exposure to air pollution is associated with hospital admissions for asthma in children. It is hypothesised that (1) the association between asthma admissions and air pollution is stronger with UFPs than with coarse (PM10) and fine (PM2.5) particles, nitrogen oxides (NOx) or nitrogen dioxide (NO2); and (2) infants are more susceptible to the effects of exposure to air pollution than older children. METHOD: Daily counts of admissions for asthma in children aged 0-18 years to hospitals located within a 15 km radius of the central fixed background urban air pollution measurement station in Copenhagen between 2001 and 2008 were extracted from the Danish National Patient Registry. A time-stratified case crossover design was applied and data were analysed using conditional logistic regression to estimate the effect of air pollution on asthma admissions. RESULTS: A significant association was found between hospital admissions for asthma in children aged 0-18 years and NOx (OR 1.11; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.17), NO2 (1.10; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.16), PM10 (1.07; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.12) and PM2.5 (1.09; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.13); there was no association with UFPs. The association was stronger in infants than in older children for all pollutants, but no statistically significant interaction was detected. CONCLUSION: Short-term exposure to air pollution can trigger hospital admission for asthma in children, with infants possibly being most susceptible. These effects seemed to be mediated by larger particles and traffic-related gases, whereas UFPs showed no effect.

Apparent temperature and acute myocardial infarction hospital admissions in Copenhagen, Denmark: a case-crossover study.

BACKGROUND: The influence of temperature on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) has not been investigated as extensively as the effects of broader outcomes of morbidity and mortality. Sixteen studies reported inconsistent results and two considered confounding by air pollution. We addressed some of the methodological limitations of the previous studies in this study. METHODS: This is the first study of the association between the daily 3-hour maximum apparent temperature (Tapp(max)) and AMI hospital admissions in Copenhagen. The study period covered 1 January 1999-31 December 2006, stratified in warm (April-September) and cold (October-March) periods. A case-crossover epidemiology study design was applied. Models were adjusted for public holidays and influenza, confounding by PM10, NO2 and CO was investigated, the lag and non-linear effects of Tapp(max) was examined, effect modification by age, sex and SES was explored, and the results of the case-crossover models were compared to those of the generalised additive Poisson time-series and generalised estimating equation models. RESULTS: 14,456 AMI hospital admissions (12,995 people) occurred during the study period. For an inter-quartile range (6 or 7°C) increase in the 5-day cumulative average of Tapp(max), a 4% (95% CI:-2%; 10%) and 9% (95% CI: 3%; 14%) decrease in the AMI admission rate was observed in the warm and cold periods, respectively. The 19-65 year old group, men and highest SES group seemed to be more susceptible in the cold period. CONCLUSION: An increase in Tapp(max) is associated with a decrease in AMI admissions during the colder months.

Perceived annoyance from environmental odors and association with atmospheric ammonia levels in non-urban residential communities: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: Odor exposure is an environmental stressor that is responsible of many citizens complains about air pollution in non-urban areas. However, information about the exposure-response relation is scarce. One of the main challenges is to identify a measurable compound that can be related with odor annoyance responses. We investigated the association between regional and temporal variation of ammonia (NH3) concentrations in five Danish non-urban regions and environmental odor annoyance as perceived by the local residents. METHODS: A cross-sectional study where NH3 concentration was obtained from the national air quality monitoring program and from emission-dispersion modelling, and odor pollution perception from questionnaires. The exposure-response model was a sigmoid model. Linear regression analyses were used to estimate the model constants after equation transformations. The model was validated using leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) statistical method. RESULTS: About 45% of the respondents were annoyed by odor pollution at their residential areas. The perceived odor was characterized by all respondents as animal waste odor. The exposure-annoyance sigmoid model showed that the prevalence of odor annoyance was significantly associated with NH3 concentrations (measured and estimated) at the local air quality monitoring stations (p < 0.01,R2 = 0.99; and p < 0.05,R2 = 0.93; respectively). Prediction errors were below 5.1% and 20% respectively. The seasonal pattern of odor perception was associated with the seasonal variation in NH3 concentrations (p < 0.001, adjusted R2 = 0.68). CONCLUSION: The results suggest that atmospheric NH3 levels at local air quality stations could be used as indicators of prevalence of odor annoyance in non-urban residential communities.

4D-Var Inversion of European NH3 Emissions Using CrIS NH3 Measurements and GEOS-Chem Adjoint With Bi-Directional and Uni-Directional Flux Schemes.

We conduct the first 4D-Var inversion of NH3 accounting for NH3 bi-directional flux, using CrIS satellite NH3 observations over Europe in 2016. We find posterior NH3 emissions peak more in springtime than prior emissions at continental to national scales, and annually they are generally smaller than the prior emissions over central Europe, but larger over most of the rest of Europe. Annual posterior anthropogenic NH3 emissions for 25 European Union members (EU25) are 25% higher than the prior emissions and very close (<2% difference) to other inventories. Our posterior annual anthropogenic emissions for EU25, the UK, the Netherlands, and Switzerland are generally 10%-20% smaller than when treating NH3 fluxes as uni-directional emissions, while the monthly regional difference can be up to 34% (Switzerland in July). Compared to monthly mean in-situ observations, our posterior NH3 emissions from both schemes generally improve the magnitude and seasonality of simulated surface NH3 and bulk NH x wet deposition throughout most of Europe, whereas evaluation against hourly measurements at a background site shows the bi-directional scheme better captures observed diurnal variability of surface NH3. This contrast highlights the need for accurately simulating diurnal variability of NH3 in assimilation of sun-synchronous observations and also the potential value of future geostationary satellite observations. Overall, our top-down ammonia emissions can help to examine the effectiveness of air pollution control policies to facilitate future air pollution management, as well as helping us understand the uncertainty in top-down NH3 emissions estimates associated with treatment of NH3 surface exchange.

Long-term trends in nitrogen oxides concentrations and on-road vehicle emission factors in Copenhagen, London and Stockholm.

Road transport is the main anthropogenic source of NOx in Europe, affecting human health and ecosystems. Thus, mitigation policies have been implemented to reduce on-road vehicle emissions, particularly through the Euro standard limits. To evaluate the effectiveness of these policies, we calculated NO2 and NOx concentration trends using air quality and meteorological measurements conducted in three European cities over 26 years. These data were also employed to estimate the trends in NOx emission factors (EFNOx, based on inverse dispersion modeling) and NO2:NOx emission ratios for the vehicle fleets under real-world driving conditions. In the period 1998-2017, Copenhagen and Stockholm showed large reductions in both the urban background NOx concentrations (-2.1 and -2.6% yr-1, respectively) and EFNOx at curbside sites (68 and 43%, respectively), proving the success of the Euro standards in diminishing NOx emissions. London presented a modest decrease in urban background NOx concentrations (-1.3% yr-1), while EFNOx remained rather constant at the curbside site (Marylebone Road) due to the increase in public bus traffic. NO2 primary emissions -that are not regulated- increased until 2008-2010, which also reflected in the ambient concentrations. This increase was associated with a strong dieselization process and the introduction of new after-treatment technologies that targeted the emission reduction of other species (e.g., greenhouse gases or particulate matter). Thus, while regulations on ambient concentrations of specific species have positive effects on human health, the overall outcomes should be considered before widely adopting them. Emission inventories for the on-road transportation sector should include EFNOx derived from real-world measurements, particularly in urban settings.

Footprints on ammonia concentrations from environmental regulations.

Releases of ammonia (NH3) to the atmosphere contribute significantly to the deposition of nitrogen to both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. This is the background for the national NH3 emission ceilings in Europe. However, in some countries the national legislation aims not only to meet these ceilings but also to reduce the atmospheric nitrogen deposition to local ecosystems. Such measures to reduce the load of nitrogen to local ecosystems were introduced in Denmark in 1994. In this paper we demonstrate that this regulation is reflected in the NH3 concentrations in Denmark. The Danish legislation forces farmers to applying manure to the fields during the crop-growing season. We have analyzed the seasonal variation in local NH3 concentrations over the time period of 1989-2003. During this period the seasonal variation has changed from having moderate spring and autumn concentration peaks to having a single and much more pronounced spring peak. In the analysis we apply an NH3 emission model to demonstrate that these changes in the seasonal variation are a result of the changes in the Danish legislation. The analysis demonstrates the strength of using a high-resolution emission model in the analysis of routine monitoring data.

Cardiovascular and lung function in relation to outdoor and indoor exposure to fine and ultrafine particulate matter in middle-aged subjects.

This cross-sectional study investigated the relationship between exposure to airborne indoor and outdoor particulate matter (PM) and cardiovascular and respiratory health in a population-based sample of 58 residences in Copenhagen, Denmark. Over a 2-day period indoor particle number concentrations (PNC, 10-300 nm) and PM2.5 (aerodynamic diameter<2.5 µm) were monitored for each of the residences in the living room, and outdoor PNC (10-280 nm), PM2.5 and PM10 (aerodynamic diameter<10 µm) were monitored at an urban background station in Copenhagen. In the morning, after the 2-day monitoring period, we measured microvascular function (MVF) and lung function and collected blood samples for biomarkers related to inflammation, in 78 middle-aged residents. Bacteria, endotoxin and fungi were analyzed in material from electrostatic dust fall collectors placed in the residences for 4 weeks. Data were analyzed using linear regression with the generalized estimating equation approach. Statistically significant associations were found between indoor PNC, dominated by indoor use of candles, and lower lung function, the prediabetic marker HbA1c and systemic inflammatory markers observed as changes in leukocyte differential count and expression of adhesion markers on monocytes, whereas C-reactive protein was significantly associated with indoor PM2.5. The presence of indoor endotoxin was associated with lower lung function and expression of adhesion markers on monocytes. An inverse association between outdoor PNC and MVF was also statistically significant. The study suggests that PNC in the outdoor environment may be associated with decreased MVF, while PNC, mainly driven by candle burning, and bioaerosols in the indoor environment may have a negative effect on lung function and markers of systemic inflammation and diabetes.

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrests and outdoor air pollution exposure in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Cardiovascular disease is the number one cause of death globally and air pollution can be a contributing cause. Acute myocardial infarction and cardiac arrest are frequent manifestations of coronary heart disease. The objectives of the study were to investigate the association between 4 657 out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) and hourly and daily outdoor levels of PM(10), PM(2.5), coarse fraction of PM (PM(10-2.5)), ultrafine particle proxies, NO(x), NO(2), O(3) and CO in Copenhagen, Denmark, for the period 2000-2010. Susceptible groups by age and sex was also investigated. A case-crossover design was applied. None of the hourly lags of any of the pollutants were significantly associated with OHCA events. The strongest association with OHCA events was observed for the daily lag4 of PM(2.5), lag3 of PM(10), lag3 of PM(10-2.5), lag3 of NO(x) and lag4 of CO. An IQR increase of PM(2.5) and PM(10) was associated with a significant increase of 4% (95% CI: 0%; 9%) and 5% (95% CI: 1%; 9%) in OHCA events with 3 days lag, respectively. None of the other daily lags or other pollutants was significantly associated with OHCA events. Adjustment for O(3) slightly increased the association between OHCA and PM(2.5) and PM(10). No susceptible groups were identified.

Residential exposure to outdoor air pollution from livestock operations and perceived annoyance among citizens.

Epidemiological studies have shown that residential exposure to livestock odors can affect the health and wellbeing of rural citizens. However, exposure-response models for this relationship have not been developed. One of the main challenges is to identify a compound that can be used as proxy for livestock odor exposure. In this paper we developed models that describe the relationship between long-term averaged outdoor residential ammonia (NH(3)) exposures and livestock odor annoyance experienced by rural residents, and investigated person-related variables associated with annoyance responses. We used emission-based atmospheric dispersion modeling data to estimate household-specific outdoor concentrations and survey data to characterize the study subjects. Binomial and multinomial logistic regressions were used for model development. Residential NH(3) exposure was positively associated with moderate, high and extreme odor annoyance (adjusted odds ratio=10.59; 95% confidence interval: 1.35-83.13, for each unit increase in Log(e)NH(3) exposure). Specific characteristics of the exposed subjects (i.e., age, time per week spent at home, presence of children at home and job) act as co-determinants of odor annoyance responses. Predictive models showed classification accuracies of 67-72%. The results suggest that NH(3) exposure in the residential outdoor environment can be used as a predictor of livestock odor annoyance in population studies.

Apparent temperature and cause-specific emergency hospital admissions in Greater Copenhagen, Denmark.

One of the key climate change factors, temperature, has potentially grave implications for human health. We report the first attempt to investigate the association between the daily 3-hour maximum apparent temperature (Tapp(max)) and respiratory (RD), cardiovascular (CVD), and cerebrovascular (CBD) emergency hospital admissions in Copenhagen, controlling for air pollution. The study period covered 1 January 2002-31 December 2006, stratified in warm and cold periods. A case-crossover design was applied. Susceptibility (effect modification) by age, sex, and socio-economic status was investigated. For an IQR (8°C) increase in the 5-day cumulative average of Tapp(max), a 7% (95% CI: 1%, 13%) increase in the RD admission rate was observed in the warm period whereas an inverse association was found with CVD (-8%, 95% CI: -13%, -4%), and none with CBD. There was no association between the 5-day cumulative average of Tapp(max) during the cold period and any of the cause-specific admissions, except in some susceptible groups: a negative association for RD in the oldest age group and a positive association for CVD in men and the second highest SES group. In conclusion, an increase in Tapp(max) is associated with a slight increase in RD and decrease in CVD admissions during the warmer months.

Apparent temperature and cause-specific mortality in Copenhagen, Denmark: a case-crossover analysis.

Temperature, a key climate change indicator, is expected to increase substantially in the Northern Hemisphere, with potentially grave implications for human health. This study is the first to investigate the association between the daily 3-hour maximum apparent temperature (Tapp(max)), and respiratory, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular mortality in Copenhagen (1999-2006) using a case-crossover design. Susceptibility was investigated for age, sex, socio-economic status and place of death. For an inter-quartile range (7 °C) increase in Tapp(max), an inverse association was found with cardiovascular mortality (-7% 95% CI -13%; -1%) and none with respiratory and cerebrovascular mortality. In the cold period all associations were inverse, although insignificant.

Establishing the link between ammonia emission control and measurements of reduced nitrogen concentrations and deposition.

In the context of international efforts to reduce the impacts of atmospheric NH3 and NH4+ (collectively, NHx). it is important to establish the link between NH3 emissions and monitoring of NHx concentrations and deposition. This is equally relevant to situations where NH3 emissions changes are certain (e.g. due to changed source sector activity), as to cases where NH3 abatement technologies have been implemented. Correct interpretation of adequate atmospheric measurements is essential, since monitoring data provide the only means to evaluate trends in regional NH3 emissions. These issues have been reviewed using available measurements and modelling from nine countries. In addition to historic datasets, the analysis here considers countries where NH3 source sector activity changed (both increases and decreases) and countries where NH3 abatement policies have been implemented. In The Netherlands an 'ammonia gap' was identified between the expected reduction and results of monitoring, and was attributed initially to ineffectiveness of the abatement measures. The analysis here for a range of countries shows that atmospheric interactions complicate the expected changes, particularly since SO2 emissions have decreased at the same time, while at many sites the few years of available data show substantial inter-annual variation. It is concluded that networks need to be established that speciate between NH3 and aerosol NH4+, in addition to providing wet deposition, and sample at sufficient sites for robust regional estimates to be established. Such measurements will be essential to monitor compliance of the international agreements on NH3 emission abatement.