Assessing the costs of ozone pollution in India for wheat producers, consumers, and government food welfare policies.

We assess wheat yield losses occurring due to ozone pollution in India and its economic burden on producers, consumers, and the government. Applying an ozone flux-based risk assessment, we show that ambient ozone levels caused a mean 14.18% reduction in wheat yields during 2008 to 2012. Furthermore, irrigated wheat was particularly sensitive to ozone-induced yield losses, indicating that ozone pollution could undermine climate-change adaptation efforts through irrigation expansion. Applying an economic model, we examine the effects of a counterfactual, "pollution-free" scenario on yield losses, wheat prices, consumer and producer welfare, and government costs. We explore three policy scenarios in which the government support farmers at observed levels of either procurement prices (fixed-price), procurement quantities (fixed-procurement), or procurement expenditure (fixed-expenditure). In pollution-free conditions, the fixed-price scenario absorbs the fall in prices, thus increasing producer welfare by USD 2.7 billion, but total welfare decreases by USD 0.24 billion as government costs increase (USD 2.9 billion). In the fixed-procurement and fixed-expenditure scenarios, ozone mitigation allows wheat prices to fall by 38.19 to 42.96%. The producers lose by USD 5.10 to 6.01 billion, but the gains to consumers and governments (USD 8.7 to 10.2 billion) outweigh these losses. These findings show that the government and consumers primarily bear the costs of ozone pollution. For pollution mitigation to optimally benefit wheat production and maximize social welfare, new approaches to support producers other than fixed-price grain procurement may be required. We also emphasize the need to consider air pollution in programs to improve agricultural resilience to climate change.

Impacts and mitigation of excess diesel-related NOx emissions in 11 major vehicle markets.

Vehicle emissions contribute to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and tropospheric ozone air pollution, affecting human health, crop yields and climate worldwide. On-road diesel vehicles produce approximately 20 per cent of global anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), which are key PM2.5 and ozone precursors. Regulated NOx emission limits in leading markets have been progressively tightened, but current diesel vehicles emit far more NOx under real-world operating conditions than during laboratory certification testing. Here we show that across 11 markets, representing approximately 80 per cent of global diesel vehicle sales, nearly one-third of on-road heavy-duty diesel vehicle emissions and over half of on-road light-duty diesel vehicle emissions are in excess of certification limits. These excess emissions (totalling 4.6 million tons) are associated with about 38,000 PM2.5- and ozone-related premature deaths globally in 2015, including about 10 per cent of all ozone-related premature deaths in the 28 European Union member states. Heavy-duty vehicles are the dominant contributor to excess diesel NOx emissions and associated health impacts in almost all regions. Adopting and enforcing next-generation standards (more stringent than Euro 6/VI) could nearly eliminate real-world diesel-related NOx emissions in these markets, avoiding approximately 174,000 global PM2.5- and ozone-related premature deaths in 2040. Most of these benefits can be achieved by implementing Euro VI standards where they have not yet been adopted for heavy-duty vehicles.

Dry Deposition of Ozone over Land: Processes, Measurement, and Modeling.

Dry deposition of ozone is an important sink of ozone in near surface air. When dry deposition occurs through plant stomata, ozone can injure the plant, altering water and carbon cycling and reducing crop yields. Quantifying both stomatal and nonstomatal uptake accurately is relevant for understanding ozone's impact on human health as an air pollutant and on climate as a potent short-lived greenhouse gas and primary control on the removal of several reactive greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Robust ozone dry deposition estimates require knowledge of the relative importance of individual deposition pathways, but spatiotemporal variability in nonstomatal deposition is poorly understood. Here we integrate understanding of ozone deposition processes by synthesizing research from fields such as atmospheric chemistry, ecology, and meteorology. We critically review methods for measurements and modeling, highlighting the empiricism that underpins modeling and thus the interpretation of observations. Our unprecedented synthesis of knowledge on deposition pathways, particularly soil and leaf cuticles, reveals process understanding not yet included in widely-used models. If coordinated with short-term field intensives, laboratory studies, and mechanistic modeling, measurements from a few long-term sites would bridge the molecular to ecosystem scales necessary to establish the relative importance of individual deposition pathways and the extent to which they vary in space and time. Our recommended approaches seek to close knowledge gaps that currently limit quantifying the impact of ozone dry deposition on air quality, ecosystems, and climate.

Effects of ozone on agriculture, forests and grasslands.

The damage and injury that ground level ozone (O3) causes vegetation has become increasingly evident over the past half century with a large body of observational and experimental evidence demonstrating a variety of effects at ambient concentrations on crop, forest and grassland species and ecosystems. This paper explores the use of experimental data to develop exposure-response relationships for use in risk assessment studies. These studies have typically identified the USA mid-West, much of Europe, the Indo Gangetic Plain in South Asia and the Eastern coastal region of China as global regions where O3 is likely to threaten food supply and other ecosystems. Global risk assessment modelling estimates yield losses of staple crops between 3 to 16% causing economic losses of between US$14 to 26 billion in the year 2000. Changes in anthropogenic emissions of O3 precursors in recent decades have modified O3 concentration profiles (peaks versus background O3) and global distributions with the Northern Hemisphere seeing increases in O3 levels of between 1 and 5 ppb/decade since the 1950s and the emergence of Asia as the region with the highest O3 concentrations. In the future, O3 mitigation could focus on methane (CH4) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions; these will differentially influence global and local/regional O3 concentrations and influence daily and seasonal profiles. The consequent effects on vegetation will in part depend on how these changes in O3 profile alter the exceedance of detoxification thresholds for plant damage. Adaptation options may play an important role in enhancing food supply while mitigation strategies are being implemented. An improved understanding of the mechanisms by which O3 affects plants, and how this might influence detoxification thresholds and interactions with other environmental variables such as water stress and nutrients, would help develop O3 deposition and impact models to support the development of crop, land-surface exchange and ultimately earth system models for holistic assessments of global change. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'.

Lower air pollution during COVID-19 lock-down: improving models and methods estimating ozone impacts on crops.

We suggest that the unprecedented and unintended decrease of emissions of air pollutants during the COVID-19 lock-down in 2020 could lead to declining seasonal ozone concentrations and positive impacts on crop yields. An initial assessment of the potential effects of COVID-19 emission reductions was made using a set of six scenarios that variously assumed annual European and global emission reductions of 30% and 50% for the energy, industry, road transport and international shipping sectors, and 80% for the aviation sector. The greatest ozone reductions during the growing season reached up to 12 ppb over crop growing regions in Asia and up to 6 ppb in North America and Europe for the 50% global reduction scenario. In Europe, ozone responses are more sensitive to emission declines in other continents, international shipping and aviation than to emissions changes within Europe. We demonstrate that for wheat the overall magnitude of ozone precursor emission changes could lead to yield improvements between 2% and 8%. The expected magnitude of ozone precursor emission reductions during the Northern Hemisphere growing season in 2020 presents an opportunity to test and improve crop models and experimentally based exposure response relationships of ozone impacts on crops, under real-world conditions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'.

A unifying explanation for variation in ozone sensitivity among woody plants.

Tropospheric ozone is considered the most detrimental air pollutant for vegetation at the global scale, with negative consequences for both provisioning and climate regulating ecosystem services. In spite of recent developments in ozone exposure metrics, from a concentration-based to a more physiologically relevant stomatal flux-based index, large-scale ozone risk assessment is still complicated by a large and unexplained variation in ozone sensitivity among tree species. Here, we explored whether the variation in ozone sensitivity among woody species can be linked to interspecific variation in leaf morphology. We found that ozone tolerance at the leaf level was closely linked to leaf dry mass per unit leaf area (LMA) and that whole-tree biomass reductions were more strongly related to stomatal flux per unit leaf mass (r2  = 0.56) than to stomatal flux per unit leaf area (r2  = 0.42). Furthermore, the interspecific variation in slopes of ozone flux-response relationships was considerably lower when expressed on a leaf mass basis (coefficient of variation, CV = 36%) than when expressed on a leaf area basis (CV = 66%), and relationships for broadleaf and needle-leaf species converged when using the mass-based index. These results show that much of the variation in ozone sensitivity among woody plants can be explained by interspecific variation in LMA and that large-scale ozone impact assessment could be greatly improved by considering this well-known and easily measured leaf trait.

Closing the global ozone yield gap: Quantification and cobenefits for multistress tolerance.

Increasing both crop productivity and the tolerance of crops to abiotic and biotic stresses is a major challenge for global food security in our rapidly changing climate. For the first time, we show how the spatial variation and severity of tropospheric ozone effects on yield compare with effects of other stresses on a global scale, and discuss mitigating actions against the negative effects of ozone. We show that the sensitivity to ozone declines in the order soybean > wheat > maize > rice, with genotypic variation in response being most pronounced for soybean and rice. Based on stomatal uptake, we estimate that ozone (mean of 2010-2012) reduces global yield annually by 12.4%, 7.1%, 4.4% and 6.1% for soybean, wheat, rice and maize, respectively (the "ozone yield gaps"), adding up to 227 Tg of lost yield. Our modelling shows that the highest ozone-induced production losses for soybean are in North and South America whilst for wheat they are in India and China, for rice in parts of India, Bangladesh, China and Indonesia, and for maize in China and the United States. Crucially, we also show that the same areas are often also at risk of high losses from pests and diseases, heat stress and to a lesser extent aridity and nutrient stress. In a solution-focussed analysis of these results, we provide a crop ideotype with tolerance of multiple stresses (including ozone) and describe how ozone effects could be included in crop breeding programmes. We also discuss altered crop management approaches that could be applied to reduce ozone impacts in the shorter term. Given the severity of ozone effects on staple food crops in areas of the world that are also challenged by other stresses, we recommend increased attention to the benefits that could be gained from addressing the ozone yield gap.

Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production.

Introduction of high-performing crop cultivars and crop/soil water management practices that increase the stomatal uptake of carbon dioxide and photosynthesis will be instrumental in realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of achieving food security. To date, however, global assessments of how to increase crop yield have failed to consider the negative effects of tropospheric ozone, a gaseous pollutant that enters the leaf stomatal pores of plants along with carbon dioxide, and is increasing in concentration globally, particularly in rapidly developing countries. Earlier studies have simply estimated that the largest effects are in the areas with the highest ozone concentrations. Using a modelling method that accounts for the effects of soil moisture deficit and meteorological factors on the stomatal uptake of ozone, we show for the first time that ozone impacts on wheat yield are particularly large in humid rain-fed and irrigated areas of major wheat-producing countries (e.g. United States, France, India, China and Russia). Averaged over 2010-2012, we estimate that ozone reduces wheat yields by a mean 9.9% in the northern hemisphere and 6.2% in the southern hemisphere, corresponding to some 85 Tg (million tonnes) of lost grain. Total production losses in developing countries receiving Official Development Assistance are 50% higher than those in developed countries, potentially reducing the possibility of achieving UN SDG2. Crucially, our analysis shows that ozone could reduce the potential yield benefits of increasing irrigation usage in response to climate change because added irrigation increases the uptake and subsequent negative effects of the pollutant. We show that mitigation of air pollution in a changing climate could play a vital role in achieving the above-mentioned UN SDG, while also contributing to other SDGs related to human health and well-being, ecosystems and climate change.

Has the sensitivity of soybean cultivars to ozone pollution increased with time? An analysis of published dose-response data.

The rising trend in concentrations of ground-level ozone (O3 ) - a common air pollutant and phytotoxin - currently being experienced in some world regions represents a threat to agricultural yield. Soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) is an O3 -sensitive crop species and is experiencing increasing global demand as a dietary protein source and constituent of livestock feed. In this study, we collate O3 exposure-yield data for 49 soybean cultivars, from 28 experimental studies published between 1982 and 2014, to produce an updated dose-response function for soybean. Different cultivars were seen to vary considerably in their sensitivity to O3 , with estimated yield loss due to O3 ranging from 13.3% for the least sensitive cultivar to 37.9% for the most sensitive, at a 7-h mean O3 concentration (M7) of 55 ppb - a level frequently observed in regions of the USA, India and China in recent years. The year of cultivar release, country of data collection and type of O3 exposure used were all important explanatory variables in a multivariate regression model describing soybean yield response to O3 . The data show that the O3 sensitivity of soybean cultivars increased by an average of 32.5% between 1960 and 2000, suggesting that selective breeding strategies targeting high yield and high stomatal conductance may have inadvertently selected for greater O3 sensitivity over time. Higher sensitivity was observed in data from India and China compared to the USA, although it is difficult to determine whether this effect is the result of differential cultivar physiology, or related to local environmental factors such as co-occurring pollutants. Gaining further understanding of the underlying mechanisms that govern the sensitivity of soybean cultivars to O3 will be important in shaping future strategies for breeding O3 -tolerant cultivars.

Application of ethylene diurea (EDU) in assessing the response of a tropical soybean cultivar to ambient O3: nitrogen metabolism, antioxidants, reproductive development and yield.

The present study deals with assessment of response of a tropical soybean cultivar to O3 in relation to photosynthetic pigments, chlorophyll fluorescence kinetics, antioxidative capacity, N assimilation enzymes, metabolites, growth and yield using ethylene diurea (EDU) given as a soil drench (400) ppm at an interval of 10 days after germination up to maturity. Mean O3 concentration was 42 ppb and accumulated threshold above 40 ppb (AOT 40) was 9.07 ppm h. Lipid peroxidation and total phenolics reduced, while increases in activities of antioxidative and nitrogen assimilation enzymes, ascorbic acid, protein, photosynthetic pigments, Fv/Fm ratio, number of leaves, flowers, pods, branches and yield attributes were found in EDU treated plants. EDU alleviated the negative effects of O3 by enhancing the first line of defense against ROS and protecting N assimilation enzymes at flowering and maintaining adequate supply of photosynthates to developing pods during pod filling stage. EDU provided maximum protection between flowering to pod filling stage.

A single-point modeling approach for the intercomparison and evaluation of ozone dry deposition across chemical transport models (Activity 2 of AQMEII4).

A primary sink of air pollutants and their precursors is dry deposition. Dry deposition estimates differ across chemical transport models, yet an understanding of the model spread is incomplete. Here, we introduce Activity 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative Phase 4 (AQMEII4). We examine 18 dry deposition schemes from regional and global chemical transport models as well as standalone models used for impact assessments or process understanding. We configure the schemes as single-point models at eight Northern Hemisphere locations with observed ozone fluxes. Single-point models are driven by a common set of site-specific meteorological and environmental conditions. Five of eight sites have at least 3 years and up to 12 years of ozone fluxes. The interquartile range across models in multiyear mean ozone deposition velocities ranges from a factor of 1.2 to 1.9 annually across sites and tends to be highest during winter compared with summer. No model is within 50 % of observed multiyear averages across all sites and seasons, but some models perform well for some sites and seasons. For the first time, we demonstrate how contributions from depositional pathways vary across models. Models can disagree with respect to relative contributions from the pathways, even when they predict similar deposition velocities, or agree with respect to the relative contributions but predict different deposition velocities. Both stomatal and nonstomatal uptake contribute to the large model spread across sites. Our findings are the beginning of results from AQMEII4 Activity 2, which brings scientists who model air quality and dry deposition together with scientists who measure ozone fluxes to evaluate and improve dry deposition schemes in the chemical transport models used for research, planning, and regulatory purposes.

Identifying and modelling key physiological traits that confer tolerance or sensitivity to ozone in winter wheat.

Tropospheric ozone threatens crop production in many parts of the world, especially in highly populated countries in economic transition. Crop models suggest substantial global yield losses for wheat, but typically such models fail to address differences in ozone responses between tolerant and sensitive genotypes. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to identify physiological traits contributing to yield losses or yield stability under ozone stress in 18 contrasting wheat cultivars that had been pre-selected from a larger wheat population with known ozone tolerance. Plants were exposed to season-long ozone fumigation in open-top chambers at an average ozone concentration of 70 ppb with three additional acute ozone episodes of around 150 ppb. Compared to control conditions, average yield loss was 18.7 percent, but large genotypic variation was observed ranging from 2.7 to 44.6 percent. Foliar chlorophyll content represented by normalized difference vegetation index and net CO2 assimilation rate of young leaves during grain filling were the physiological traits most strongly correlated with grain yield losses or stability. Accumulative effects of chronic ozone exposure on photosynthesis were more detrimental for grain yield than instantaneous effects of acute ozone shocks, or accelerated senescence of older leaves represented by changes in the ratio of brown leaf area/green leaf area index. We used experimental data of two selected tolerant or sensitive varieties, respectively, to parametrize the LINTULCC2 crop model expanded with an ozone response routine. By specifying parameters representing the distinct physiological responses of contrasting genotypes, we simulated yield losses of 7 percent (tolerant) or 33 percent (sensitive). By considering genotypic differences in ozone response models, this study helps to improve the accuracy of simulation studies, estimate the effects of adaptive breeding, and identify physiological traits for the breeding of ozone tolerant wheat varieties that could deliver stable yields despite ozone exposure.

Legislative and functional aspects of different metrics used for ozone risk assessment to forests.

Surface ozone (O3) is a threat to forests by decreasing photosynthesis and, consequently, influencing the strength of land carbon sink. However, due to the lack of continuous surface O3 measurements, observational-based assessments of O3 impacts on forests are largely missing at hemispheric to global scales. Currently, some metrics are used for regulatory purposes by governments or national agencies to protect forests against the negative impacts of ozone: in particular, both Europe and United States (US) makes use of two different exposure-based metrics, i.e. AOT40 and W126, respectively. However, because of some limitations in these metrics, a new standard is under consideration by the European Union (EU) to replace the current exposure metric. We analyse here the different air quality standards set or proposed for use in Europe and in the US to protect forests from O3 and to evaluate their spatial and temporal consistency while assessing their effectiveness in protecting northern-hemisphere forests. Then, we compare their results with the information obtained from a complex land surface model (ORCHIDEE). We find that present O3 uptake decreases gross primary production (GPP) in 37.7% of the NH forested area of northern hemisphere with a mean loss of 2.4% year-1. We show how the proposed US (W126) and the currently used European (AOT40) air quality standards substantially overestimate the extension of potential vulnerable regions, predicting that 46% and 61% of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) forested area are at risk of O3 pollution. Conversely, the new proposed European standard (POD1) identifies lower extension of vulnerability regions (39.6%).

A new stable isotope approach identifies the fate of ozone in plant-soil systems.

* We show that the stable isotope (18)O can be used to trace ozone into different components of the plant-soil system at environmentally relevant concentrations. * We exposed plants and soils to (18)O-labelled ozone and used isotopic enrichment in plant dry matter, leaf water and leaf apoplast, as well as in soil dry matter and soil water, to identify sites of ozone-derived (18)O accumulation. * It was shown that isotopic accumulation rates in plants can be used to infer the location of primary ozone-reaction sites, and that those in bare soils are dependent on water content. However, the isotopic accumulation rates measured in leaf tissue were much lower than the modelled stomatal flux of ozone. * Our new approach has considerable potential to elucidate the fate and reactions of ozone within both plants and soils, at scales ranging from plant communities to cellular defence mechanisms.

New Insights into Leaf Physiological Responses to Ozone for Use in Crop Modelling.

Estimating food production under future air pollution and climate conditions in scenario analysis depends on accurately modelling ozone (O3) effects on yield. This study tests several assumptions that form part of published approaches for modelling O3 effects on photosynthesis and leaf duration against experimental data. In 2015 and 2016, two wheat cultivars were exposed in eight hemispherical glasshouses to O3 ranging from 22 to 57 ppb (24 h mean), with profiles ranging from raised background to high peak treatments. The stomatal O3 flux (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose, POD) to leaves was simulated using a multiplicative stomatal conductance model. Leaf senescence occurred earlier as average POD increased according to a linear relationship, and the two cultivars showed very different senescence responses. Negative effects of O3 on photosynthesis were only observed alongside O3-induced leaf senescence, suggesting that O3 does not impair photosynthesis in un-senesced flag leaves at the realistic O3 concentrations applied here. Accelerated senescence is therefore likely to be the dominant O3 effect influencing yield in most agricultural environments. POD was better than 24 h mean concentration and AOT40 (accumulated O3 exceeding 40 ppb, daylight hours) at predicting physiological response to O3, and flux also accounted for the difference in exposure resulting from peak and high background treatments.

Preliminary results of modeled ozone uptake for Fagus sylvatica L. trees at selected EU/UN-ECE intensive monitoring plots.

The objective of this study was to establish whether EU and UN-ECE/ICP-Forests monitoring data (i) provide the variables necessary to apply the flux-based modeling methods and (ii) meet the quality criteria necessary to apply the flux-based critical level concept. Application of this model has been possible using environmental data collected from the EU and UN-ECE/ICP-Forests monitoring network in Switzerland and Italy for 2000-2002. The test for data completeness and plausibility resulted in 6 out of a possible total of 20 Fagus sylvatica L. plots being identified as suitable from Switzerland, Italy, Spain, and France. The results show that the collected data allow the identification of different spatial and temporal areas and periods as having higher risk to ozone than those identified using the AOT40 approach. However, it was also apparent that the quality and completeness of the available data may severely limit a complete risk assessment across Europe.

Assessing the risk caused by ground level ozone to European forest trees: a case study in pine, beech and oak across different climate regions.

Two different indices have been proposed for estimation of the risk caused to forest trees across Europe by ground-level ozone, (i) the concentration based AOT40 index (Accumulated Over a Threshold of 40 ppb) and (ii) the recently developed flux based AFstY index (Accumulated stomatal Flux above a flux threshold Y). This paper compares the AOT40 and AFstY indices for three forest trees species at different locations in Europe. The AFstY index is estimated using the DO(3)SE (Deposition of Ozone and Stomatal Exchange) model parameterized for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), beech (Fagus sylvatica) and holm oak (Quercus ilex). The results show a large difference in the perceived O(3) risk when using AOT40 and AFstY indices both between species and regions. The AOT40 index shows a strong north-south gradient across Europe, whereas there is little difference between regions in the modelled values of AFstY. There are significant differences in modelled AFstY between species, which are predominantly determined by differences in the timing and length of the growing season, the periods during which soil moisture deficit limits stomatal conductance, and adaptation to soil moisture stress. This emphasizes the importance of defining species-specific flux response variables to obtain a more accurate quantification of O(3) risk.

Implications of climate change for the stomatal flux of ozone: a case study for winter wheat.

Climate change factors such as elevated CO2 concentrations, warming and changes in precipitation affect the stomatal flux of ozone (O3) into leaves directly or indirectly by altering the stomatal conductance, atmospheric O3 concentrations, frequency and extent of pollution episodes and length of the growing season. Results of a case study for winter wheat indicate that in a future climate the exceedance of the flux-based critical level of O3 might be reduced across Europe, even when taking into account an increase in tropospheric background O3 concentration. In contrast, the exceedance of the concentration-based critical level of O3 will increase with the projected increase in tropospheric background O3 concentration. The influence of climate change should be considered when predicting the future effects of O3 on vegetation. There is a clear need for multi-factorial, open-air experiments to provide more realistic information for O3 flux-effect modelling in a future climate.

Parameterization of the stomatal component of the DO3SE model for Mediterranean evergreen broadleaf species.

An ozone (O3) deposition model (DO3SE) is currently used in Europe to define the areas where O3 concentrations lead to absorbed O3 doses that exceed the flux-based critical levels above which phytotoxic effects would be likely recorded. This mapping exercise relies mostly on the accurate estimation of O3 flux through plant stomata. However, the present parameterization of the modulation of stomatal conductance (g(s)) behavior by different environmental variables needs further adjustment if O3 phytotoxicity is to be assessed accurately at regional or continental scales. A new parameterization of the model is proposed for Holm oak (Quercus ilex), a tree species that has been selected as a surrogate for all Mediterranean evergreen broadleaf species. This parameterization was based on a literature review, and was calibrated and validated using experimentally measured data of g(s) and several atmospheric and soil parameters recorded at three sites of the Iberian Peninsula experiencing long summer drought, and very cold and dry winter air (El Pardo and Miraflores) or milder conditions (Tietar). A fairly good agreement was found between modeled and measured data (R2 = 0.64) at Tietar. However, a reasonable performance (R2 = 0.47-0.62) of the model was only achieved at the most continental sites when g(s) and soil moisture deficit relationships were considered. The influence of root depth on g(s) estimation is discussed and recommendations are made to build up separate parameterizations for continental and marine-influenced Holm oak sites in the future.

Preliminary assessment of risk of ozone impacts to maize (Zea mays) in southern Africa.

Surface ozone concentrations in southern Africa exceed air quality guidelines set to protect agricultural crops. This paper addresses a knowledge gap by performing a preliminary assessment of potential ozone impacts on vegetation in southern African. Maize (Zea mays L.) is the receptor of interest in the main maize producing countries, i.e. South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Surface ozone concentrations are estimated for the growing season (October to April) using photochemical modelling. Hourly mean modelled ozone concentrations ranged between 19.7 and 31.2 ppb, while maximums range between 28.9 and 61.9 ppb, and are near 30 ppb over South Africa and Zambia, while in Zimbabwe, they exceed 40 ppb and translate into monthly AOT40 values of over 3,000 ppb h in five of the seven months of the growing season. This study suggests that surface ozone may pose a threat to agricultural production in southern African, particularly in Zimbabwe.