Impact of CGIAR maize germplasm in Sub-Saharan Africa.

This study reports on the adoption and impacts of CGIAR-related maize varieties in 18 major maize-producing countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) during 1995-2015. Of the 1345 maize varieties released during this timeframe, approximately 60% had a known CGIAR parentage. About 34% (9.5 million ha) of the total maize area in 2015 was cultivated with 'new' CGIAR-related maize varieties released between 1995 and 2015. In the same year, an additional 13% of the maize area was cultivated with 'old' CGIAR-related maize varieties released before 1995. The aggregate annual economic benefit of using new CGIAR-related maize germplasm for yield increase in SSA was estimated at US$1.1-1.6 billion in 2015, which we attributed equally to co-investments by CGIAR funders, public-sector national research and extension programs, and private sector partners. Given that the annual global investment in CGIAR maize breeding at its maximum was US$30 million, the benefit-cost ratios for the CGIAR investment and CGIAR-attributable portion of economic benefits varied from 12:1-17:1, under the assumption of a 5-year lag in the research investment to yield returns. The study also discusses the methodological challenges involved in large-scale impact assessments. Post-2015 CGIAR tropical maize breeding efforts have had a strong emphasis on stress tolerance.

Viewpoint: Agri-nutrition research: Revisiting the contribution of maize and wheat to human nutrition and health.

Research linking agriculture and nutrition has evolved since the mid-20th century. The current focus is on child-stunting, dietary diversity and 'nutrient-rich' foods in recognition of the growing burdens of malnutrition and non-communicable diseases. This article concerns the global dietary and health contribution of major cereals, specifically maize and wheat, which are often considered not to be 'nutrient-rich' foods. Nevertheless, these cereals are major sources of dietary energy, of essential proteins and micronutrients, and diverse non-nutrient bioactive food components. Research on bioactives, and dietary fibre in particular, is somewhat 'siloed', with little attention paid by the agri-nutrition research community to the role of cereal bioactives in healthy diets, and the adverse health effects often arising through processing and manufacturing of cereals-based food products. We argue that the research agenda should embrace the whole nutritional contribution of the multiple dietary components of cereals towards addressing the triple burden of undernutrition, micronutrient malnutrition, overweight/obesity and non-communicable diseases. Agri-nutrition and development communities need to adopt a multidisciplinary and food systems research approach from farm to metabolism. Agriculture researchers should collaborate with other food systems stakeholders on nutrition-related challenges in cereal production, processing and manufacturing, and food waste and losses. Cereal and food scientists should also collaborate with social scientists to better understand the impacts on diets of the political economy of the food industry, and the diverse factors which influence local and global dietary transitions, consumer behavioural choices, dietary change, and the assessment and acceptance of novel and nutritious cereal-based products.

Drivers of household food availability in sub-Saharan Africa based on big data from small farms.

We calculated a simple indicator of food availability using data from 93 sites in 17 countries across contrasted agroecologies in sub-Saharan Africa (>13,000 farm households) and analyzed the drivers of variations in food availability. Crop production was the major source of energy, contributing 60% of food availability. The off-farm income contribution to food availability ranged from 12% for households without enough food available (18% of the total sample) to 27% for the 58% of households with sufficient food available. Using only three explanatory variables (household size, number of livestock, and land area), we were able to predict correctly the agricultural determined status of food availability for 72% of the households, but the relationships were strongly influenced by the degree of market access. Our analyses suggest that targeting poverty through improving market access and off-farm opportunities is a better strategy to increase food security than focusing on agricultural production and closing yield gaps. This calls for multisectoral policy harmonization, incentives, and diversification of employment sources rather than a singular focus on agricultural development. Recognizing and understanding diversity among smallholder farm households in sub-Saharan Africa is key for the design of policies that aim to improve food security.

Economic benefits of blast-resistant biofortified wheat in Bangladesh: The case of BARI Gom 33.

The first occurrence of wheat blast in 2016 threatened Bangladesh's already precarious food security situation. The Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), together with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) developed and released the wheat variety BARI Gom 33 that is resistant to wheat blast and other common diseases. The new variety provides a 5-8% yield gain over the available popular varieties, as well as being zinc enriched. This study examines the potential economic benefits of BARI Gom 33 in Bangladesh. First, applying a climate analogue model, this study identified that more than 55% of the total wheat-growing area in Bangladesh (across 45 districts) is vulnerable to wheat blast. Second, applying an ex-ante impact assessment framework, this study shows that with an assumed cumulative adoption starting from 2019-20 and increasing to 30% by 2027-28, the potential economic benefits of the newly developed wheat variety far exceeds its dissemination cost by 2029-30. Even if dissemination of the new wheat variety is limited to only the ten currently blast-affected districts, the yearly average net benefits could amount to USD 0.23-1.6 million. Based on the findings, international funder agencies are urged to support the national system in scaling out the new wheat variety and wheat research in general to ensure overall food security in Bangladesh and South Asia.

Impacts of drought-tolerant maize varieties on productivity, risk, and resource use: Evidence from Uganda.

Weather variability is an important source of production risk for rainfed agriculture in developing countries. This paper evaluates the impacts of the adoption of drought-tolerant maize varieties on average maize yield, yield stability, risk exposure and resource use in rainfed smallholder maize farming. The study uses cross-sectional farm household-level data, collected from a sample of 840 farm households in Uganda. The adoption of drought-tolerant maize varieties increased yield by 15% and reduced the probability of crop failure by 30%. We further show that the adoption of these varieties increased investments in maize production at the extensive margin through maize area increase and to a more limited extent at the intensive margin through mechanization. The findings show promise for further uptake and scaling of drought-tolerant maize varieties for increased productivity, reduced risk, and the transformation of the maize sector.

Understanding clients, providers and the institutional dimensions of irrigation services in developing countries: A study of water markets in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated nations that nonetheless has largely achieved staple self-sufficiency. This development has been enabled in part by the rapid proliferation of small-scale irrigation pumps that enabled double rice cropping, as well as by a competitive market system in which farmers purchase water at affordable fee-for-service prices from private irrigation pump owners. Excess groundwater abstraction in areas of high shallow tube-well density and increased fuel costs for pumping have however called into question the sustainability of Bangladesh's groundwater irrigation economy. Cost-saving agronomic methods are called for, alongside aligned policies, markets, and farmers' incentives. The study assesses different institutions and water-pricing methods for irrigation services that have emerged in Bangladesh, each of which varies in their incentive structure for water conservation, and the level of economic risk involved for farmers and service providers. Using primary data collected from 139 irrigation service providers and 556 client-farmers, we empirically examine the structure of irrigation service types and associated market and institutional dimensions. Our findings demonstrate that competition among pump owners, social capital and personal relationships, and economic and agronomic risk perceptions of both pump owners and farmers significantly influence the structure of irrigation services and water pricing methods. Greater competition among pump owners increases the likelihood of pay-per-hour services and reduces the likelihood of crop harvest sharing arrangements. Based on these findings, we explore policy implications for enhancing irrigation services and irrigation sustainability in Bangladesh.

Do market shocks generate gender-differentiated impacts? Policy implications from a quasi-natural experiment in Bangladesh.

Using information collected from two rounds of household income and expenditure surveys (HIES 2005 and 2010) in Bangladesh, this study examines the gender-differentiated impacts of the commodity price hikes in 2008 on food and non-food consumption behavior based on the sex of the household head. Applying the difference-in-difference estimation method in a quasi-natural experiment setting, this study demonstrates that, in general, commodity price hikes more adversely affect female-headed households. In 2010, they reduced expenditures on food and non-food items, and particularly cereal, non-cereal, and education expenditures, more than male-headed households did. This study also shows that the impacts of commodity price hikes were lower on the female-headed households headed by educated females as well as those who owned larger pieces of land and received remittances. These subsets were not affected by the commodity price shocks as examined in 2010. The findings strongly suggest that the provision of both human and physical capital is instrumental in developing countries to empower female-headed households to enhance their buffering capacity to withstand economic shocks.

Enhancing Smallholder Access to Agricultural Machinery Services: Lessons from Bangladesh.

Resource poor smallholders in developing countries often lack access to capital goods such as farm machinery. Enabling adequate access through machinery services can thereby significantly contribute to food security and farm incomes. At the core of the service provision model is the lead farmer, who makes the initial investment in agricultural machinery, and provides services to others on a fee-for-service basis. Profiling the lead farmers can thereby provide important lessons and scaling implications. The present paper provides a case study of Bangladesh, using primary data to characterise the lead farmers. General education, credit availability and risk taking attitude play significant roles in whether or not a farm household will be a lead farmer in Bangladesh.

Factors associated with small-scale agricultural machinery adoption in Bangladesh: Census findings.

There is strong advocacy for agricultural machinery appropriate for smallholder farmers in South Asia. Such 'scale-appropriate' machinery can increase returns to land and labour, although the still substantial capital investment required can preclude smallholder ownership. Increasing machinery demand has resulted in relatively well-developed markets for rental services for tillage, irrigation, and post-harvest operations. Many smallholders thereby access agricultural machinery that may have otherwise been cost prohibitive to purchase through fee-for-service arrangements, though opportunity for expansion remains. To more effectively facilitate the development and investment in scale-appropriate machinery, there is a need to better understand the factors associated with agricultural machinery purchases and service provision. This paper first reviews Bangladesh's historical policy environment that facilitated the development of agricultural machinery markets. It then uses recent Bangladesh census data from 814,058 farm households to identify variables associated with the adoption of the most common smallholder agricultural machinery - irrigation pumps, threshers, and power tillers (mainly driven by two-wheel tractors). Multinomial probit model results indicate that machinery ownership is positively associated with household assets, credit availability, electrification, and road density. These findings suggest that donors and policy makers should focus not only on short-term projects to boost machinery adoption. Rather, sustained emphasis on improving physical and civil infrastructure and services, as well as assuring credit availability, is also necessary to create an enabling environment in which the adoption of scale-appropriate farm machinery is most likely.

Misidentification by farmers of the crop varieties they grow: Lessons from DNA fingerprinting of wheat in Ethiopia.

Accurate identification of crop varieties grown by farmers is crucial, among others, for crop management, food security and varietal development and dissemination purposes. One may expect varietal identification to be more challenging in the context of developing countries where literacy and education are limited and informal seed systems and seed recycling are common. This paper evaluates the extent to which smallholder farmers misidentify their wheat varieties in Ethiopia and explores the associated factors and their implications. The study uses data from a nationally representative wheat growing sample household survey and DNA fingerprinting of seed samples from 3,884 wheat plots in major wheat growing zones of Ethiopia. 28-34% of the farmers correctly identified their wheat varieties. Correct identification was positively associated with farmer education and seed purchases from trusted sources (cooperatives or known farmers) and negatively associated with seed recycling. Farmers' varietal identification thereby is problematic and leads to erroneous results in adoption and impact assessments. DNA fingerprinting can enhance varietal identification but remains mute in the identification of contextual and explanatory factors. Thus, combining household survey and DNA fingerprinting approaches is needed for reliable varietal adoption and impact assessments, and generate useful knowledge to inform policy recommendations related to varietal replacement and seed systems development.

Smallholders' coping mechanisms with wheat rust epidemics: Lessons from Ethiopia.

Crops are variously susceptible to biotic stresses-something expected to increase under climate change. In the case of staple crops, this potentially undermines household and national food security. We examine recent wheat rust epidemics and smallholders' coping mechanisms in Ethiopia as a case study. Wheat is a major food crop in Ethiopia widely grown by smallholders. In 2010/11 a yellow rust epidemic affected over one-third of the national wheat area. Two waves of nationally representative household level panel data collected for the preceding wheat season (2009/10) and three years after (2013/14) the occurrence of the epidemic allow us to analyze the different coping mechanisms farmers used in response. Apart from using fungicides as ex-post coping mechanism, increasing wheat area under yellow rust resistant varieties, increasing diversity of wheat varieties grown, or a combination of these strategies were the main ex-ante coping mechanisms farmers had taken in reducing the potential effects of rust re-occurrence. Large-scale dis-adoption of highly susceptible varieties and replacement with new, rust resistant varieties was observed subsequent to the 2010/11 epidemic. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to identify the key factors associated with smallholder ex-ante coping strategies. Household characteristics, level of specialization in wheat and access to improved wheat seed were the major factors that explained observed choices. There was 29-41% yield advantage in increasing wheat area to the new, resistant varieties even under normal seasons with minimum rust occurrence in the field. Continuous varietal development in responding to emerging new rust races and supporting the deployment of newly released resistant varieties could help smallholders in dealing with rust challenges and maintaining improved yields in the rust-prone environments of Ethiopia. Given the global importance of both wheat and yellow rust and climate change dynamics study findings have relevance to other regions.

Productivity and production risk effects of adopting drought-tolerant maize varieties in Zambia.

PURPOSE: Productivity and production risks affect the use of agricultural production practices and inputs, particularly in developing countries. This paper aims to investigate the effects of adopting drought-tolerant maize varieties (DTMVs) on farm productivity, yield variance and downside risk exposure of maize growing households of Zambia. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: The study uses household survey data collected from 11 maize producing districts of Eastern, Southern and Copperbelt provinces of Zambia using a structured questionnaire. The Antle's flexible moment-based approach was used in specifying, estimating and testing a stochastic production function. The study further applied an endogenous switching regression model to control for both observable and unobservable sources of bias. FINDINGS: The study revealed that DTMV adoption increases maize yield by 15 per cent and reduces the risk of crop failure: reducing yield variance by 38 per cent and exposure to downside risk by 36 per cent. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: This study establishes the benefits of DTMV adoption in Zambia with regards to productivity, yield stability and downside risk in the face of climate change. Results from this study underscore the need for more concerted efforts to scale-out DTMVs for both maize productivity enhancement and for risk mitigation against weather shocks.

Multi-Site Bundling of Drought Tolerant Maize Varieties and Index Insurance.

Drought Tolerant Maize Varieties (DTMV) and Rainfall Index Insurance (RII) are potential complements, though with limited empirical basis. We employ a multivariate spatial framework to investigate the potential for bundling DTMV with a simulated multi-site and multi-environment RII, designed to insure against mild, moderate and severe drought risk. We use yield data from on-farm trials conducted by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and partners over 49 locations in Eastern and Southern Africa spanning 8 countries and 5 mega-environments (dry lowland, dry mid altitude, wet lower mid altitude, low wetland and wet upper mid altitude) in which 19 different improved maize varieties including DTMV were tested at each location. Spatially correlated daily rainfall data are generated from a first-order two-state Markov chain process and used to calibrate the index and predict yields with a hierarchical Bayes multivariate spatial model. Results show high variation in the performance and benefits of different bundles which depend on the maize variety, the risk layer insured, and the type of environment, with high chances of selecting a sub-optimal and unattractive contract. We find that complementing RII with a specific DTMV produces contracts with lower premiums and higher guaranteed returns especially in dry lowland increasing the chances of scaling up RII within this environment.

Small businesses, potentially large impacts: The role of fertilizer traders as agricultural extension agents in Bangladesh.

PURPOSE: Constraints associated with public agricultural extension services imply that farmers increasingly rely on input providers for agricultural innovations and knowledge. Yet such providers are typically commercial profit-making agents and may have an incentive to suggest relatively costly inputs and/or high rates. The purpose of this paper is to look into the case of Bangladesh and the role of fertilizer traders in terms of farmers' decisions on which fertilizer to apply and at what rate. Using primary data, the authors examine farmers' chemical fertilizer use and the associated rice production efficiency, based on different information sources (fertilizer traders, government extension agents or own/peer experience). DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: Using primary data, the present study estimates an ordered probit model and production functions separately based on whether or not a farmer relied on information from fertilizer traders or own experience and government extension agents, and examines the efficiency score of each type of farmer. FINDINGS: The findings demonstrate that the resource-poor farmers rely more on traders' suggestions for fertilizer application than public extension - but the actual fertilizer information source has no significant effect on the production efficiency of the rice farmers. This study, therefore, does not find exploitative behavior of fertilizer traders. Thus, this study concludes that small rural traders in Bangladesh are working as agricultural extension agents and provide necessary fertilizer application information to resource-poor farmers. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS/IMPLICATIONS: This is a case study based on Bangladesh - an emerging economy in South Asia. The findings of the study may not be generalized for other countries. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that confirms the role of agricultural input sellers as the extension agent in developing countries.

Averting wheat blast by implementing a 'wheat holiday': In search of alternative crops in West Bengal, India.

The emergence of wheat-blast in Bangladesh in the 2015-16 wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) crop threatens the food security of South Asia. A potential spread of the disease from Bangladesh to India could have devastating impacts on India's overall food security as wheat is its second most important staple food crop. West Bengal state in eastern India shares a 2,217 km-long border with Bangladesh and has a similar agro-ecology, enhancing the prospects of the disease entering India via West Bengal. The present study explores the possibility of a 'wheat holiday' policy in the nine border districts of West Bengal. Under the policy, farmers in these districts would stop wheat cultivation for at least two years. The present scoping study assesses the potential economic feasibility of alternative crops to wheat. Of the ten crops considered, maize, gram (chickpea), urad (black gram), rapeseed and mustard, and potatoes are found to be potentially feasible alternative crops. Any crop substitution would need support to ease the transition including addressing the challenges related to the management of alternative crops, ensuring adequate crop combinations and value chain development. Still, as wheat is a major staple, there is some urgency to support further research on disease epidemiology and forecasting, as well as the development and dissemination of blast-resistant wheat varieties across South Asia.

Threat of wheat blast to South Asia's food security: An ex-ante analysis.

New biotic stresses have emerged around the globe over the last decades threatening food safety and security. In 2016, scientists confirmed the presence of the devastating wheat-blast disease in Bangladesh, South Asia-its first occurrence outside South America. Severely blast-affected wheat fields had their grain yield wiped out. This poses a severe threat to food security in a densely-populated region with millions of poor inhabitants where wheat is a major staple crop and per capita wheat consumption has been increasing. As an ex ante impact assessment, this study examined potential wheat-blast scenarios in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. Based on the agro-climatic conditions in the epicenter, where the disease was first identified in Bangladesh in 2016, this study identified the correspondingly vulnerable areas in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh amounting to 7 million ha. Assuming a conservative scenario of 5-10% for blast-induced wheat production loss, this study estimated the annual potential wheat loss across the sampled countries to be 0.89-1.77 million tons, equivalent to USD 132-264 million. Such losses further threaten an already-precarious national food security, putting pressure on wheat imports and wheat prices. The study is a call for action to tackle the real wheat-blast threat in South Asia.

Impact of gender participation in non-farming activities on household income and poverty levels in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: In the rural areas of Pakistan, the majority of farm households have small landholdings of less than 2 hectares. Both male and females are engaged in farming and non-farming activities. However, in Pakistan the gender-wise participation in farming activities is not much documented. OBJECTIVES: The main objective of the current study is to estimate the impact of male and female participation in non-farming activities on a household's income level and poverty status in Pakistan. METHODS: The current study is based on a cross-sectional data set collected from 325 households through a purposive random sampling technique. A detailed comprehensive questionnaire was prepared for data collection. The data were analyzed by employing the propensity score matching approach. RESULTS: The empirical results indicate that both male and female participation in non-farming activities has a positive impact on household welfare in Pakistan by raising income levels and thus contributing to poverty reduction. However, the impact is greater when the males of a household take part in these activities rather than the females. CONCLUSIONS: In the past only a few studies have focused on gender-based participation in non-farming activities. The non-farming sector is an important one in rural areas, especially in developing countries like Pakistan. More opportunities need to be created for both men and women in rural areas of Pakistan to find off-farm work, in order to increase household income and reduce poverty levels.

Beyond conservation agriculture.

Global support for Conservation Agriculture (CA) as a pathway to Sustainable Intensification is strong. CA revolves around three principles: no-till (or minimal soil disturbance), soil cover, and crop rotation. The benefits arising from the ease of crop management, energy/cost/time savings, and soil and water conservation led to widespread adoption of CA, particularly on large farms in the Americas and Australia, where farmers harness the tools of modern science: highly-sophisticated machines, potent agrochemicals, and biotechnology. Over the past 10 years CA has been promoted among smallholder farmers in the (sub-) tropics, often with disappointing results. Growing evidence challenges the claims that CA increases crop yields and builds-up soil carbon although increased stability of crop yields in dry climates is evident. Our analyses suggest pragmatic adoption on larger mechanized farms, and limited uptake of CA by smallholder farmers in developing countries. We propose a rigorous, context-sensitive approach based on Systems Agronomy to analyze and explore sustainable intensification options, including the potential of CA. There is an urgent need to move beyond dogma and prescriptive approaches to provide soil and crop management options for farmers to enable the Sustainable Intensification of agriculture.