Climate change is an important predictor of extinction risk on macroevolutionary timescales.

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing rapidly and already impacting biodiversity. Despite its importance in future projections, understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which climate mediates extinction remains limited. We present an integrated approach examining the role of intrinsic traits versus extrinsic climate change in mediating extinction risk for marine invertebrates over the past 485 million years. We found that a combination of physiological traits and the magnitude of climate change is necessary to explain marine invertebrate extinction patterns. Our results suggest that taxa previously identified as extinction resistant may still succumb to extinction if the magnitude of climate change is great enough.

Global latitudinal gradients and the evolution of body size in dinosaurs and mammals.

Global climate patterns fundamentally shape the distribution of species and ecosystems. For example, Bergmann's rule predicts that homeothermic animals, including birds and mammals, inhabiting cooler climates are generally larger than close relatives from warmer climates. The modern world, however, lacks the comparative data needed to evaluate such macroecological rules rigorously. Here, we test for Bergmann's rule in Mesozoic dinosaurs and mammaliaforms that radiated within relatively temperate global climate regimes. We develop a phylogenetic model that accounts for biases in the fossil record and allows for variable evolutionary dispersal rates. Our analysis also includes new fossil data from the extreme high-latitude Late Cretaceous Arctic Prince Creek Formation. We find no evidence for Bergmann's rule in Mesozoic dinosaurs or mammaliaforms, the ancestors of extant homeothermic birds and mammals. When our model is applied to thousands of extant dinosaur (bird) and mammal species, we find that body size evolution remains independent of latitude. A modest temperature effect is found in extant, but not in Mesozoic, birds, suggesting that body size evolution in modern birds was influenced by Bergmann's rule during Cenozoic climatic change. Our study provides a general approach for studying macroecological rules, highlighting the fossil record's power to address longstanding ecological principles.

Climatic constraints on the biogeographic history of Mesozoic dinosaurs.

Dinosaurs dominated Mesozoic terrestrial ecosystems globally. However, whereas a pole-to-pole geographic distribution characterized ornithischians and theropods, sauropods were restricted to lower latitudes. Here, we evaluate the role of climate in shaping these biogeographic patterns through the Jurassic-Cretaceous (201-66 mya), combining dinosaur fossil occurrences, past climate data from Earth System models, and habitat suitability modeling. Results show that, uniquely among dinosaurs, sauropods occupied climatic niches characterized by high temperatures and strongly bounded by minimum cold temperatures. This constrained the distribution and dispersal pathways of sauropods to tropical areas, excluding them from latitudinal extremes, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. The greater availability of suitable habitat in the southern continents, particularly in the Late Cretaceous, might be key to explaining the high diversity of sauropods there, relative to northern landmasses. Given that ornithischians and theropods show a flattened or bimodal latitudinal biodiversity gradient, with peaks at higher latitudes, the closer correspondence of sauropods to a subtropical concentration could hint at fundamental thermophysiological differences to the other two clades.

The rise and demise of the Paleogene Central Tibetan Valley.

Reconstructing the Paleogene topography and climate of central Tibet informs understanding of collisional tectonic mechanisms and their links to climate and biodiversity. Radiometric dates of volcanic/sedimentary rocks and paleotemperatures based on clumped isotopes within ancient soil carbonate nodules from the Lunpola Basin, part of an east-west trending band of basins in central Tibet and now at 4.7 km, suggest that the basin rose from <2.0 km at 50 to 38 million years (Ma) to >4.0 km by 29 Ma. The height change is quantified using the rates at which wet-bulb temperatures (Tw) decline at land surfaces as those surface rise. In this case, Tw fell from ~8°C at ~38 Ma to ~1°C at 29 Ma, suggesting at least ~2.0 km of surface uplift in ~10 Ma under warm Eocene to Oligocene conditions. These results confirm that a Paleogene Central Tibetan Valley transformed to a plateau before the Neogene.

A new biologic paleoaltimetry indicating Late Miocene rapid uplift of northern Tibet Plateau.

The uplift of the Tibet Plateau (TP) during the Miocene is crucial to understanding the evolution of Asian monsoon regimes and alpine biodiversity. However, the northern Tibet Plateau (NTP) remains poorly investigated. We use pollen records of montane conifers (Tsuga, Podocarpus, Abies, and Picea) as a new paleoaltimetry to construct two parallel midrange paleoelevation sequences in the NTP at 1332 ± 189 m and 433 ± 189 m, respectively, during the Middle Miocene [~15 million years ago (Ma)]. Both midranges increased rapidly to 3685 ± 87 m in the Late Miocene (~11 Ma) in the east, and to 3589 ± 62 m at ~7 Ma in the west. Our estimated rises in the east and west parts of the NTP during 15 to 7 Ma, together with data from other TP regions, indicate that during the Late Miocene the entire plateau may have reached a high elevation close to that of today, with consequent impacts on atmospheric precipitation and alpine biodiversity.

A distinctive Eocene Asian monsoon and modern biodiversity resulted from the rise of eastern Tibet.

The uplift of eastern Tibet, Asian monsoon development and the evolution of globally significant Asian biodiversity are all linked, but in obscure ways. Sedimentology, geochronology, clumped isotope thermometry, and fossil leaf-derived numerical climate data from the Relu Basin, eastern Tibet, show at âˆ¼50-45 Ma the basin was a hot (mean annual air temperature, MAAT, ∼27 °C) dry desert at a low-elevation of 0.6 ± 0.6 km. Rapid basin rise to 2.0 ± 0.9 km at 45-42 Ma and to 2.9 ± 0.9 km at 42-40 Ma, with MAATs of âˆ¼20 and âˆ¼16 °C, respectively, accompanied seasonally varying increased annual precipitation to > 1500 mm. From âˆ¼39 to 34 Ma, the basin attained 3.5 ± 1.0 km, near its present-day elevation (∼3.7 km), and MAAT cooled to âˆ¼6 °C. Numerically-modelled Asian monsoon strength increased significantly when this Eocene uplift of eastern Tibet was incorporated. The simulation/proxy congruence points to a distinctive Eocene Asian monsoon, quite unlike that seen today, in that it featured bimodal precipitation and a winter-wet regime, and this enhanced biodiversity modernisation across eastern Asia. The Paleogene biodiversity of Asia evolved under a continually modifying monsoon influence, with the modern Asian monsoon system being unique to the present and a product of a long gradual development in the context of an ever-changing Earth system.

Orographic evolution of northern Tibet shaped vegetation and plant diversity in eastern Asia.

The growth of the Tibetan Plateau throughout the past 66 million years has profoundly affected the Asian climate, but how this unparalleled orogenesis might have driven vegetation and plant diversity changes in eastern Asia is poorly understood. We approach this question by integrating modeling results and fossil data. We show that growth of north and northeastern Tibet affects vegetation and, crucially, plant diversity in eastern Asia by altering the monsoon system. This northern Tibetan orographic change induces a precipitation increase, especially in the dry (winter) season, resulting in a transition from deciduous broadleaf vegetation to evergreen broadleaf vegetation and plant diversity increases across southeastern Asia. Further quantifying the complexity of Tibetan orographic change is critical for understanding the finer details of Asian vegetation and plant diversity evolution.

Comment on "Revised paleoaltimetry data show low Tibetan Plateau elevation during the Eocene".

Botsyun et al (Research Articles, 1 March 2019, eaaq1436) have suggested that the Tibetan Plateau was low (substantially less than 3000 meters) during the Eocene, based on a comparison of oxygen isotope proxy data with isotope-enabled climate model simulations. However, we contend that their conclusions are flawed as the result of a number of failings of both the modeling and the data comparison.

Ecological niche modelling does not support climatically-driven dinosaur diversity decline before the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction.

In the lead-up to the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction, dinosaur diversity is argued to have been either in long-term decline, or thriving until their sudden demise. The latest Cretaceous (Campanian-Maastrichtian [83-66 Ma]) of North America provides the best record to address this debate, but even here diversity reconstructions are biased by uneven sampling. Here we combine fossil occurrences with climatic and environmental modelling to quantify latest Cretaceous North American dinosaur habitat. Ecological niche modelling shows a Campanian-to-Maastrichtian habitability decrease in areas with present-day rock-outcrop. However, a continent-wide projection demonstrates habitat stability, or even a Campanian-to-Maastrichtian increase, that is not preserved. This reduction of the spatial sampling window resulted from formation of the proto-Rocky Mountains and sea-level regression. We suggest that Maastrichtian North American dinosaur diversity is therefore likely to be underestimated, with the apparent decline a product of sampling bias, and not due to a climatically-driven decrease in habitability as previously hypothesised.

Past East Asian monsoon evolution controlled by paleogeography, not CO2.

The East Asian monsoon plays an integral role in human society, yet its geological history and controlling processes are poorly understood. Using a general circulation model and geological data, we explore the drivers controlling the evolution of the monsoon system over the past 150 million years. In contrast to previous work, we find that the monsoon is controlled primarily by changes in paleogeography, with little influence from atmospheric CO2. We associate increased precipitation since the Late Cretaceous with the gradual uplift of the Himalayan-Tibetan region, transitioning from an ITCZ-dominated monsoon to a sea breeze-dominated monsoon. The rising region acted as a mechanical barrier to cold and dry continental air advecting into the region, leading to increasing influence of moist air from the Indian Ocean/South China Sea. We show that, apart from a dry period in the middle Cretaceous, a monsoon system has existed in East Asia since at least the Early Cretaceous.